nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2016‒06‒25
twelve papers chosen by
Jacob A. Jordaan
Universiteit Utrecht

  1. Impact Evaluation of the Job Youth Training Program Projoven By Juan José Díaz; David Rosas Shady
  2. Optimal data collection for randomized control trials By Pedro Carneiro; Sokbae Lee; Daniel Wilhelm
  3. Don’t Forget about the Children – Latent Food Insecurity in Rural Cambodia By Buehler, Dorothee C.; Hartje, Rebecca C.; Grote, Ulrike
  4. Women's empowerment, sibling rivalry, and competitiveness: evidence from a lab experiment and a randomized control trial in Uganda By Buehren,Niklas; Goldstein,Markus P.; Leonard,Kenneth; Montalvao,Joao; Vasilaky,Kathryn
  5. Weather index insurance and shock coping : evidence from Mexico's CADENA Program By De Janvry,Alain F.; Ramirez Ritchie,Elizabeth Andrea; Sadoulet,Elisabeth Marie L.
  6. Aid for Trade and the Trade Facilitation Agreement: What they can do for LDCs By Jaime DE MELO; Laurent WAGNER
  7. Estimating Income Mobility When Income is Measured with Error: The Case of South Africa By Rulof P. Burger, Stephan Klasen and Asmus Zoch
  8. Analysis on Demand and Supply-side Responses during the Expansion of Health Insurance Coverage in Vietnam: Challenges and Policy Implications toward Universal Health Coverage By Midori Matsushima; Hiroyuki Yamada; Yasuharu Shimamura
  9. Child Labor in China By Tang, Can; Zhao, Liqiu; Zhao, Zhong
  10. Determinants of Internal Migration in Indonesia By Hera Susanti; Arie Damayanti
  11. Individual Migration and Household Incomes By Julia Garlick; Murray Leibbrandt; James Levinsohn
  12. Prices and Competition. Evidence from a Social Program By Emilio Aguirre; Pablo Blanchard; Fernando Borraz; Joaquín Saldain

  1. By: Juan José Díaz; David Rosas Shady
    Abstract: This paper brings new evidence on the impact of The Peruvian Job Youth Training Program (Projoven). Compared with prior evaluations of the program, this one has several advantages. This is the first experimental impact evaluation of Projoven, and also the first to measure impacts over a longer period: almost three years after training. Additionally, the evaluation supplements data from a follow-up survey with administrative data from the country's Electronic Payroll (Planilla Electrónica), allowing for a more accurate measure of formal employment. It also measures whether socioemotional skills of beneficiaries improved with program participation. The evaluation finds a high long term positive impact of Projoven on formal employment. It also finds certain heterogeneity of program impacts across subpopulations. Impacts on formal employment vary depending on the beneficiaries' gender and age, with different patterns of statistical significance depending on the data source used to measure employment formality. Finally, it does not find significant impacts on socio-emotional skills.
    Keywords: Formal Employment, Labor Market Insertion, Job Training Programs, Youth Labor, Vocational Education and Training, Long-term Impacts Analysis, Labor Market Policies, Labor Market Insertion, Formal Employment
    JEL: J24 J64 O15 O17
    Date: 2016–04
  2. By: Pedro Carneiro (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Sokbae Lee (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Daniel Wilhelm (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and UCL)
    Abstract: In a randomized control trial, the precision of an average treatment e ffect estimator can be improved either by collecting data on additional individuals, or by collecting additional covariates that predict the outcome variable. We propose the use of pre-experimental data such as a census, or a household survey, to inform the choice of both the sample size and the covariates to be collected. Our procedure seeks to minimize the resulting average treatment e ect estimator's mean squared error, subject to the researcher's budget constraint. We rely on an orthogonal greedy algorithm that is conceptually simple, easy to implement (even when the number of potential covariates is very large), and does not require any tuning parameters. In two empirical applications, we show that our procedure can lead to substantial gains of up to 58%, either in terms of reductions in data collection costs or in terms of improvements in the precision of the treatment eff ect estimator, respectively. The original version of the working paper, posted on 01 April, 2016, is available here.
    Keywords: randomized control trials, big data, data collection, optimal surveydesign, orthogonal greedy algorithm, survey costs.
    JEL: C55 C81
    Date: 2016–04–01
  3. By: Buehler, Dorothee C.; Hartje, Rebecca C.; Grote, Ulrike
    Abstract: Despite encouraging developments in overall undernourishment figures our analysis of rural Cambodian households reveals very high malnutrition in children. In this paper we use a novel panel data set from Stung Treng in Cambodia which allows to compare different household food security indicators with each other and individual level anthropometric data of children under five. While the large majority of households appear to be food secure according to the Food Consumption Score (FCS) and the Household Hunger Scale (HHS), the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and the Coping Strategies Index (CSI) classify less than four percent of the households in Stung Treng as food secure. Stunting and underweight measures for children show that between 38 to 45 percent of children under five are classified as undernourished. Analyzing the influence of household characteristics on these different measures for food security we find that the FCS is largely driven by household characteristics and livelihood strategy choices whereas the anthropometrics show little or zero correlation. Household wealth, inequality, and the prevalence of shocks however, has a strong influence on both measures. Individual and mother specific characteristics are vital to explain child malnutrition.
    Keywords: Malnutrition, Undernutrition, Food Security, Anthropometrics, Cambodia, Income Inequality, Shocks, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health and Economic Development I15, Economic Development O15,
    Date: 2016–04
  4. By: Buehren,Niklas; Goldstein,Markus P.; Leonard,Kenneth; Montalvao,Joao; Vasilaky,Kathryn
    Abstract: This study looks at how a community event?adolescent women's economic and social empowerment -- and a family factor -- sibling sex composition?interact in shaping gender differences in preferences for competition. To do so, a lab-in-the-field experiment is conducted using competitive games layered over the randomized rollout of a community program that empowered adolescent girls in Uganda. In contrast with the literature, the study finds no gender differences in competitiveness among adolescents, on average. It also finds no evidence of differences in competitiveness between girls in treatment and control communities, on average. However, in line with the literature, in control communities the study finds that boys surrounded by sisters are less competitive. Strikingly, this pattern is reversed in treatment communities, where boys surrounded by (empowered) sisters are more competitive.
    Keywords: Anthropology,Gender and Development,Gender and Social Development,Gender and Law,Adolescent Health
    Date: 2016–06–07
  5. By: De Janvry,Alain F.; Ramirez Ritchie,Elizabeth Andrea; Sadoulet,Elisabeth Marie L.
    Abstract: Weather risk and incomplete insurance markets are significant contributors to poverty for rural households in developing countries. Weather index insurance has emerged as a possible tool for overcoming these challenges. This paper provides evidence on the impact of weather index insurance from a pioneering, large-scale insurance program in Mexico. The focus of this analysis is on the ex-post effects of insurance payments. A regression discontinuity design provides find evidence that payments from weather index insurance allow farmers to cultivate a larger land area in the season following a weather shock. Households in municipalities receiving payment also appear to have larger per capita expenditures and income in the subsequent year, although there is suggestive evidence that some of this increase is offset by a decrease in remittances. While the cost of insurance appears to be high relative to the payouts, the benefits exceed the costs for a substantial range of outcomes.
    Keywords: Debt Markets,Climate Change Economics,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Labor Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2016–06–21
  6. By: Jaime DE MELO (Ferdi); Laurent WAGNER (Ferdi)
    Abstract: The Aid for Trade (AFT) initiative, launched in 2005 to help developing and especially the Least Developed (LDCs) countries integrate the rules of the World Trade System adopted in the Uruguay Round turned out to be more about mobilizing support for the stalled Doha Round negotiations. A decade later, a broadened AFT agenda has eluded effective evaluation. The recently concluded Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) provides an ideal opportunity to narrow the scope of AFT activities to heed the call for “managing for Development results” (MfDR). The paper reviews the evidence on trade costs distinguishing between Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Landlocked LDCS (LLDCs). The paper also includes new estimates of time in transit for international parcel data that is measured relatively accurately. New estimates provide support for allocating a greater share of AFT funds towards LDCs and particularly towards LLDCs, both groups showing higher trade costs than comparators and less progress in reducing trade costs since 1995. On average, time in customs for imports and exports are also significantly higher for both groups than for their respective comparators. LDCs and LLDCs have systematically lower scores for the components in the new OECD Trade Facilitation Indicator (TFI). These new estimates suggest that a successful implementation of the TFA, defined as moving halfway towards the frontier value of the TFI for the respective country grouping could reduce trade costs for imports of LDCs by 2.5% and by 4.5% for LLDCs. Even though there is more to trade costs than customs management, monitoring implementation of the TFA would be part of the IPoA and a stepping stone towards the concrete trade performance targets that have lacked in AFT activities so far.
    Keywords: aid for trade
    Date: 2016–05
  7. By: Rulof P. Burger, Stephan Klasen and Asmus Zoch
    Abstract: There are long-standing concerns that household income mobility is over-estimated due to measurement errors in reported incomes, especially in developing countries where collecting reliable survey data is often difficult. We propose a new approach that exploits the existence of three waves of panel data to can be used to simultaneously estimate the extent of income mobility and the reliability of the income measure. This estimator is more efficient than 2SLS estimators used in other studies and produces over-identifying restrictions that can be used to test the validity of our identifying assumptions. We also introduce a nonparametric generalisation in which both the speed of income convergence and the reliability of the income measure varies with the initial income level. This approach is applied to a three-wave South African panel dataset. The results suggest that the conventional method over-estimates the extent of income mobility by a factor of more than 4 and that about 20% of variation in reported household income is due to measurement error. This result is robust to the choice of income mobility measure. Nonparametric estimates show that there is relatively high (upward) income mobility for poor households, but very little (downward) income mobility for rich households, and that income is more reliably captured for rich than for poor households.
    Keywords: Income Mobility, inequality, longitudinal data analysis, measurement error
    JEL: J62 D63 C23
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Midori Matsushima (Faculty of Business Administration, Osaka University of Commerce); Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Yasuharu Shimamura (Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University)
    Abstract: Vietnam is one of the leading countries moving towards universal health coverage (UHC) among developing and emerging countries. This paper examines how utilisation and the supply side have responded to the expansion of health insurance coverage. In the analysis, we use provincial panel data of 2006 to 2012 for every two years, which is constructed from several data sources. The results show that the utilisation has only slightly responded to the expansion of health insurance coverage, and nearly no positive supply-side response has been observed during the expansion. Also, the results of detailed analysis of health workers imply that there has been an unbalanced allocation of health workers between provincial hospitals and commune health stations despite the importance of commune health stations in providing primary healthcare. Our further analysis also reveals that the out-of-pocket (OOP) burden has not decreased and the affordability of healthcare services has not changed in response to health insurance coverage. Based on our findings, we argue that supply-side factors might have constrained utilisation, and that health insurance has hardly eased liquidity constraints.
    Keywords: universal health coverage, Vietnam, utilisation, supply
    JEL: I13 I18
    Date: 2016–05–23
  9. By: Tang, Can (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Liqiu (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: We present the first systematic study on child labor in China. Child labor is not a negligible social phenomenon in China; about 7.74% of children aged from 10 to 15 were working in 2010, and they worked for 6.75 hours per day on average, and spent 6.42 hours less per day on study than other children. About 90% of child laborers were still in school and combined economic activity with schooling. Our results show that child labor participation is positively associated with school dropout rate. A child living in a rural area is more likely to work. Compared with place of residence, the gender of a child are less important. The educational level of the household head and its interaction with the gender of the household head seem to be unimportant. However, household assets per capita and household involvement in non-agricultural activities are negatively related to the incidence of child labor. A child from a household with more adults is less likely to work. The prevalence of child labor in China exhibits significant regional variations. The child labor incidence is correlated with the development level of each region: the Western region has the highest percentage of child labor, followed by the Eastern and Central region.
    Keywords: child labor, school dropout, working hours, China
    JEL: J43 J81 O15
    Date: 2016–05
  10. By: Hera Susanti; Arie Damayanti (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia)
    Abstract: We analyse the behavior of internal migration in Indonesia and estimate factors influenced the migrants’s decision to return. We adopt the international migration model to estimate the duration periods of the Indonesian internal migration. The characteristic variables are developed from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data within period of 1993-2007, while the control variables are using various regional data fron the National Statistical Bureau of Statistics. The main conclusion indicates that the return decision was mainly influenced by the opportunity to increase migrant welfares. Hence, migrants’s characteristic and education level proved to affect the duration. The migrants’s engagement to their family and community was remain strong, and even stronger if the status of the home region was rural area. The duration also tends to be longer after the implementation of regional autonomy.
    Keywords: Migration Duration, Internal Migration, Return Migration, Survival Analysis, IFLS
    JEL: C41 J61 O15
    Date: 2015–10
  11. By: Julia Garlick; Murray Leibbrandt; James Levinsohn
    Abstract: We estimate the returns to internal migration in South Africa. These appear to be the first nationally representative estimates of the return to migration for any African country-- a somewhat surprising claim for a literature that's over 60 years old. We develop a framework to analyze individual migration in the context of income pooling within endogenously formed households. We apply this framework to estimate the return to migration from the perspective of the migrant (as is typically done) as well as from the perspectives of the sending and receiving households.
    JEL: O1 O12 O15
    Date: 2016–06
  12. By: Emilio Aguirre (Ministerio de Desarrollo Social (Uruguay)); Pablo Blanchard (Ministerio de Desarrollo Social (Uruguay)); Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay); Joaquín Saldain (Banco Central del Uruguay)
    Abstract: We use a micro-price dataset to analyze the impact on prices of a social program in Uruguay that allow the beneficiaries to purchase food, beverages and cleaning items exclusively in certain small retailers. We find that the beneficiaries pay significantly higher prices in relation to prices in other retailers. We find this result for the whole country with the exception of areas with the highest retailer density in the capital city, Montevideo.
    Keywords: market structure, market power, prices, social program; estructura de mercado, poder de mercado, precios, programa social
    JEL: D4 I3 L1
    Date: 2015

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