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on Development |
| By: | Bloom, David E. (Harvard University); Humair, Salal (Harvard School of Public Health); Rosenberg, Larry (Harvard School of Public Health); Sevilla, J.P. (George Mason University); Trussell, James (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Managing rapid population growth and spurring economic growth are among the most pressing policy challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa. We discuss the links between them and investigate the potential of family planning programs to address these challenges. Specifically, we estimate the impact of family planning programs on income per capita that can arise via the demographic dividend (DD), a boost to per capita income that operates through a chain of causality related to declining fertility. We develop a model to determine the impact of "meeting unmet need" (MUN) for modern contraceptive methods on fertility and hence on the population age structure in the coming years. We also estimate empirically the DD that has been observed in other countries, using a cross-country regression with panel data covering 40 years. Using the age structure projected by MUN and the empirical estimates of the DD, we estimate the potential for additional economic growth in Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal. We find that in 2030, these countries can enjoy an increase in per capita income of 8-13% by meeting one-third of their unmet need for modern contraception and can enjoy a 31-65% higher income per capita by meeting all of the unmet need. By 2050, these ranges become 13-22% and 47-87% respectively. We discuss the policy implications of our findings. |
| Keywords: | aging, health care, labor studies |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7855&r=dev |
| By: | Alessandro Tarozzi; Jaikishan Desai; Kristin Johnson |
| Abstract: | We use data from a randomized controlled trial conducted in 2003-2006 in rural Amhara and Oromiya (Ethiopia) to study the impacts of the introduction of microfinance in treated communities. We document that borrowing increased substantially in locations where the programs started their operations, but we find mixed evidence of improvements in a number of socio-economic outcomes, including income from agriculture, animal husbandry, non-farm self-employment, schooling and indicators of women's empowerment. |
| Keywords: | Microcredit; Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial; Ethiopia |
| JEL: | O12 O16 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1407&r=dev |
| By: | Maria Carmela Lo Bue (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | Using panel data from Indonesia, this paper analyzes the linkages between child nutrition, health care, household wealth and parental education in order to detect transmission channels between health, education, nutrition, water and sanitation access, five critical MDG targets. This paper therefore also aims at providing an empirical analysis of the drivers of complementarities between these goals at the micro level micro-level perspective. We find that maternal education has a positive and long term effect on child health and that this effect is partly reflected in reproductive behavior and partly conveyed to child health outcomes through child caring practices such as breastfeeding. Although we cannot rule out the existence of strong complementarities existing between household wealth or income and child health, the effect of positive changes in this variable appears to be present only in the short term. On the other hand, there are supply-side factors such as lack of sanitation and access to health facilities which also strongly affect children in terms of anthropometric outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Millennium Development Goals; Child undernutrition; Panel data; Mundlak model; Indonesia |
| JEL: | I12 I30 O15 |
| Date: | 2014–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:155&r=dev |
| By: | Catia Batista (Nova University of Lisbon); Gaia Narciso (Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Do information flows matter for remittance behavior? We design and implement a randomized control trial to quantitatively assess the role of communication between migrants and their contacts abroad on the extent and value of remittance flows. In the experiment, a random sample of 1,500 migrants residing in Ireland was offered the possibility of contacting their networks outside the host country for free over a varying number of months. We find a sizable, positive impact of our intervention on the value of migrant remittances sent. Our results exclude that the remittance effect we identify is a simple substitution effect. Instead, our analysis points to this effect being a likely result of improved information via factors such as better migrant control over remittance use, enhanced trust in remittance channels due to experience sharing, or increased remittance recipients’ social pressure on migrants |
| Keywords: | information flows, international migration, migrant networks, remittances, randomized control trial |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nor:wpaper:2014001&r=dev |
| By: | Biavaschi, Costanza (IZA); Elsner, Benjamin (IZA) |
| Abstract: | Migrants are typically self-selected from the population of their home country. While a large literature has identified the causes of self-selection, we turn in this paper to the consequences. Using a combination of non-parametric econometrics and calibrated simulation, we quantify the impact of migrant self-selection on per-capita GDP in both sending and receiving countries. Two episodes of mass migration serve as examples: the migration from Norway to the US in the 1880s and the migration from Mexico to the US in the 2000s. We first estimate the degree of selection, and show that Norwegians were positively and Mexicans negatively selected. In a simulation exercise, we compare the economy under selective migration with a counterfactual in which the same number of migrants are neutrally selected. In both periods, we find virtually no aggregate effect in the US. Findings are different for the sending countries; migrant selection decreases Norwegian GDP by 0.3%, and increases Mexican GDP by almost 1%. While these effects may appear small, we demonstrate that the effect in Mexico is as large as the difference between no migration and the current level of migration. |
| Keywords: | international migration, selection, welfare |
| JEL: | D33 F22 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7865&r=dev |
| By: | Raymond P. Guiteras; B. Kelsey Jack |
| Abstract: | An observed positive relationship between compensation and productivity cannot distinguish between two channels: (1) an incentive effect and (2) worker selection. We use a simplified Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism, which provides random variation in piece rates conditional on revealed reservation rates, to separately identify the two channels in the context of casual labor markets in rural Malawi. A higher piece rate increases output in our setting, but does not attract more productive workers. Among men, the average worker recruited at higher piece rates is actually less productive. Local labor market imperfections appear to undermine the worker sorting observed in well-functioning labor markets. |
| JEL: | C93 J22 J24 J33 O12 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19825&r=dev |
| By: | Joseph J. Capuno (School of Economics, University of the Philippines); Aleli D. Kraft (School of Economics, University of the Philippines); Stella A. Quimbo (School of Economics, University of the Philippines); Carlos Antonio R. Tan, Jr. (School of Economics, University of the Philippines) |
| Abstract: | With their country located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and in the monsoon belt, Philippine households are perennially exposed to natural disasters and calamities. In addition, they face health, economic and sociopolitical risks. Using a nationally representative sample of households, we assess the overall incidence of different shocks, the extent to which they simultaneously affect households in the same area, and their impact. A huge majority of households experience shocks, with the incidence of different shocks being roughly the same for poor and rich households. Natural and economic shocks appear to affect more households simultaneously in the same area than sociopolitical shocks, health shocks and deaths. Health shocks and deaths lead to greater short-term and long-term impacts. Richer households are able to recover better than the poor. We draw some implications for the design and targeting of social health insurance, disaster management and other social protection programs. |
| Keywords: | Household shocks; coping mechanisms; welfare |
| JEL: | D10 I38 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:201312&r=dev |
| By: | Axel Dreher (Heidelberg University); Silvia Marchesi (University of Milan Bicocca and Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of information transmission in explaining donors\' choice between project aid and budget support. Budget support increases the involvement of recipient governments in the decision-making process and can thus be an example of a “delegation-scheme\". Conversely, project aid represents a more “centralized\" type of aid. According to the theory, when countries\' local knowledge is more important than donors\'information, recipient countries\' discretion in the choice of policies should be increased (delegation). Conversely, there should be less freedom in designing policies when donors\' information is more relevant (centralization). The empirical analysis confirms that the importance of donors\' private information influences the amount of project aid, while recipients\' local knowledge is positively correlated with the amount of budget support. |
| Keywords: | Delegation, communication, ownership, foreign aid |
| JEL: | C23 D82 F33 O1 |
| Date: | 2013–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:356&r=dev |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi; Parandekar, Suhas |
| Abstract: | This paper examines inequality patterns of school and teacher resources as well as student performance in the Philippines. School and teacher resources, measured by pupil classroom and teacher ratios and per-pupil teacher salary, became more unequal over time. Strikingly, a large portion of the variation is attributed to their within-division distributions, especially the non-city areas in each province (rural schools), where pupil classroom and teacher ratios have significantly positive returns in terms of student test scores. Concavity built into the education production function implies that reallocation of teachers and classrooms within a division can potentially increase average test scores. The estimates also imply that it is optimal to deploy young, inexperienced teachers to rural schools and reassign them to urban schools when the teachers are more experienced. |
| Keywords: | Tertiary Education,Education For All,Primary Education,Teaching and Learning,Secondary Education |
| Date: | 2014–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6748&r=dev |
| By: | Naghsh Nejad, Maryam (IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of institutionalized gender inequality, proxied by a women's rights index, on the female high-skilled migration rates relative to that of male (the female brain drain ratio). By developing a model of migration choice I find non-linear effects of gender inequality on the female brain drain ratio as a result of effects of gender inequality on both costs and benefits of migration. At low levels of women's rights, increases in the index lead to increases in the female brain drain ratio. This is consistent with, at low levels of women's rights, prohibitively high costs of migration for females. Once a certain level of protections has been afforded to them, the costs to migration are low enough that many women then decide to leave the oppressive society and migrate where the benefits associated with their human capital are higher. However, as women's rights continue to strengthen, those benefits to migration then tend to decrease. The effect on female brain drain then turns negative. Using a panel of up to 195 countries I find evidence consistent with this model which is robust to instrumental variable approach. A one-point increase in the above average level of this index is associated with an average of about a 25-percentage point decrease in the female brain drain ratio. |
| Keywords: | high skilled female migration, women's rights, institutional quality |
| JEL: | F22 J11 J61 J16 O17 O43 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7864&r=dev |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to estimate the impact of school-based management on students'test scores in the Philippines. Estimation results using double differencing combined with propensity score matching show that school-based management increases the average national achievement test score by 4.2 points over three years. The increase in mathematics reached 5.7 points. This is larger than the estimate previously reported from the Philippines, probably because the sample schools had learned about implementation of school-based management from experiences accumulated in other provinces that introduced it earlier. The empirical results also show that schools with experienced principals and teachers are eager to introduce school-based management. |
| Keywords: | Education For All,Tertiary Education,Primary Education,Teaching and Learning,Secondary Education |
| Date: | 2014–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6747&r=dev |