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on Development |
| By: | Vincenzo Bove (Department of Government, University of Essex); Petros G. Sekeris (Center for Research in the Economics of Development, University of Namur) |
| Abstract: | Our paper explores the economic conditions that lead third parties to intervene in ongoing internal wars. We develop a formal model that ties together some of the main forces driving the decision to interfere in a civil war, including the economic benefits accruing from the intervention and the potential costs associated with such choice. We predict that third party interventions are most likely in civil conflicts where the country at war harbors a profitable industry as a consequence of its high levels of peace-time production and state strength, while the opposition forces’ strength reduces the likelihood of intervention. We also present novel empirical results on the role of valuable goods, i.e. oil, in prompting third party military intervention in contexts of high state stability, by using a dataset on intrastate conflicts on the period 1960-1999. |
| Keywords: | Intrastate Conflict; Third party intervention |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nam:wpaper:1115&r=dev |
| By: | Liam Wren-Lewis |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the interaction between corruption and infrastructure policy reforms. I construct a simple model to illustrate how both an incerase in regulatory autonomy and privatisation may influence the effect of corruption. This interaction is then analysed empirically using a panel of 153 electricity distribution firms across 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1995 and 2007. I find evidence that greater corruption is associated with lower firm efficiency, but that this association is reduced when an independent regulatory agency is present. These results survive a range of robustness checks including instrumenting for regulatory governance and corruption. I also find slightly less robust evidence that private ownership further mitigates the association between corruption and efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Regulation, Corruption, Infrastructure |
| JEL: | D73 L33 L51 L94 L98 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:576&r=dev |
| By: | Olga Biosca; Pamela Lenton; Paul Mosley |
| Abstract: | Microfinance non-financial services have been recently reformulated as high quality demand-led programs. In the Mexican context, these are now voluntary, can have a cost for the borrower and are frequently supplied in partnership with specialized public or private agencies. Using primary data from a survey of clients of two credit-plus programs in Chiapas, this paper examines and compares the participation determinants and added impact of the training sessions on monetary poverty outcomes of the borrowers. We focus on two specific programs: Business Development Services and Preventive Health Services. Results suggest that the participation decision mainly depends on borrowers’ characteristics. Non-financial services are found to reduce the clients’ likelihood of being under the asset poverty line. No significant differences were observed between the impacts of the two non-financial programs. |
| Keywords: | Non-financial services, Credit-plus, Microfinance, Poverty, Oportunidades. |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2011021&r=dev |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - CNRS : UMR6579); Blanca Martínez (Fundamentos del Análisis Económico - Universidad Complutense de Madrid); Ramon Ruiz-Tamarit (Department of Economic Analysis - Universitat de València - Universitat de Valeencia) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of demographic change on economic short and long-term dynamics in an enlarged Lucas-Uzawa model with intratemporal altruism. Demographics are summarized by population growth rate and initial size. In contrast to the existing literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of variables along the balanced growth paths, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard growth effects. It is shown that the level effect of population growth is a priori ambiguous due to the interaction of three causation mechanisms, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard, featuring in particular the transmission of demographic shocks into human capital accumulation. Overall, the sign of the level effect of population growth depends on preference and technology parameters, and on the initial conditions as well. In contrast, we prove that the long-run level effect of population size on per capita income is negative while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital; Population Growth; Population Size; Endogenous Growth; Level Effect; Growth Effect |
| Date: | 2011–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00632888&r=dev |
| By: | Tjeerd M. Boonman; Jan P. A. M. Jacobs; Gerard H. Kuper |
| Abstract: | Latin America has a rich history of financial crises. However, it was relatively unharmed by the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates why, and in particular the role of commodity prices and its institutional framework - in line with the fourth generation financial crisis model. We set up Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. These consist of an ordered logit model for currency crises for the period 1990-2007 with a dynamic factor model to deal with the large number of explanatory variables. We present forecasts for the period 2008-2009. <p> We find that international indicators play an important role in explaining currency crises in Mexico, while banking indicators and commodities explain the currency crisis in Argentina and Brazil. Furthermore, debt and domestic economy indicators are relevant for Argentina and Mexico. Finally, we observe that currency crises in all three countries are related to institutional indicators. For none of the countries the Early Warning System would have issued an early warning for the GFC. <P> |
| Keywords: | Financial crises, Early Warning Systems, Latin America, dynamic factor models, ordered logit model, |
| JEL: | C25 N26 |
| Date: | 2011–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2011s-63&r=dev |
| By: | Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Lahiri, Sajal (Southern Illinois University Carbondale); Younas, Javed (American University of Sharjah) |
| Abstract: | We examine the interaction between foreign aid and binding borrowing constraint for a recipient country. We also analyze how these two instruments affect economic growth via non-linear relationships. First of all, we develop a two-country, two-period trade-theoretic model to develop testable hypotheses and then we use dynamic panel analysis to test those hypotheses empirically. Our main findings are that: (i) better access to international credit for a recipient country reduces the amount of foreign aid it receives, and (ii) there is a critical level of international financial transfer, and the marginal effect of foreign aid is larger than that of loans if and only if the transfer (loans or foreign aid) is below this critical level. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid, foreign loans, borrowing constraint, economic growth, fungibility, public input |
| JEL: | F34 F35 O11 O16 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6024&r=dev |
| By: | Bargain, Olivier (University of Aix-Marseille II); Donni, Olivier (University of Cergy-Pontoise); Kwenda, Prudence (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Poverty measures in developing countries often ignore the distribution of resources within families and the gains from joint consumption. In this paper, we extend the collective model of household consumption to recover mother's, father's and children's shares together with economies of scale, using the observation of adult-specific goods and an extended version of the Rothbarth method. The application on data from Côte d'Ivoire shows that children command a reasonable fraction of household resources, though not enough to avoid a very large extent of child poverty compared to what is found in traditional measures based on per capita expenditure. We find no significant evidence of discrimination against girls, and educated mothers have more command over household resources. Baseline results on children's shares are robust to using alternative identifying assumptions, which consolidates a general approach grounded on a flexible version of the Rothbarth method. Individual measures of poverty show that parents are highly compensated by the scale economies due to joint consumption. |
| Keywords: | collective model, consumer demand, Engel curves, Rothbarth method, cost of children, bargaining power, sharing rule, scale economies, equivalence scales, indifference scales |
| JEL: | D11 D12 I31 J12 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6029&r=dev |
| By: | Annabelle Mourougane; Mauro Pisu |
| Abstract: | Brazil under-invested in infrastructure for over three decades, and infrastructure investment rates have come up only slowly since 2007. Infrastructure needs are sizeable in almost all sectors. It is likely that at its current stage of development the country will benefit from large pay-offs from infrastructure spending. Against this background, the Brazilian authorities have put in place a large infrastructure plan named Growth Acceleration Programme (Programa de aceleração do crescimento, PAC). This programme has been rightly protected from the fiscal cuts announced in early 2011. Nevertheless, some changes to the policy and regulatory framework could be introduced to make public investment more cost-efficient and to foster private participation. In particular: • The second stage of PAC needs to focus on completing the most worthwhile programmes. In addition, the public-private partnership framework should be streamlined. • In most areas, the regulatory framework is working well, but sectors are at different stages of development. Despite important institutional changes in recent years, policy capture is sometimes still influencing some federal and many state regulatory agency decisions. • In spite of some recent progress, frequent disputes appear to delay some infrastructure projects, especially in the energy sector. The main challenge in this area is to hasten the licensing process, while continuing to put appropriate emphasis on environmental and social protection. • Reforms have been implemented in individual network industries, but there is still some room to inject competition in fixed-line telecommunications and to prevent product cross-subsidisation in the electricity sector. Concession contracts in both roads and rail could be refined to foster private investment in maintenance and network expansion. In water and sanitation, where investments are the most needed, smaller municipalities should be encouraged to invest and form consortia to reap economies of scale. This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Review of Brazil 2011 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/Brazil).<P>Promouvoir le développement des infrastructures au Brésil<BR>Le Brésil a peu investi en infrastructure ces trente dernières années, et les dépenses d’équipement dans ce domaine n’augmentent que lentement depuis 2007. Les besoins sont considérables dans presque tous les secteurs. Au stade actuel de son développement, le pays a sans doute tout intérêt à engager des dépenses d’infrastructure. C’est pourquoi les autorités brésiliennes ont mis en place un vaste plan de développement de l’infrastructure, appelé Programme d’accélération de la croissance (Programa de aceleração do crescimento, PAC). Ce programme a été, à juste titre, épargné par les coupes budgétaires annoncées début 2011. Néanmoins, certaines modifications pourraient être apportées au cadre stratégique et réglementaire afin de rendre l’investissement public plus rentable et de stimuler la participation du secteur privé. En particulier : • La deuxième phase du PAC doit être centrée sur l’achèvement des programmes les plus importants. Par ailleurs, le cadre de partenariat public-privé devrait être simplifié. • Dans la plupart des domaines, le cadre réglementaire fonctionne bien, mais les secteurs en sont à des stades de développement différents. Malgré les importantes réformes institutionnelles de ces dernières années, la captation par des intérêts particuliers continue parfois d’influer sur certaines décisions fédérales et sur des décisions de nombreux organismes de réglementation des États. • Malgré des progrès récents, de fréquents conflits paraissent retarder certains projets d’infrastructure, en particulier dans le secteur de l’énergie. La principale difficulté dans ce domaine consiste à accélérer le processus d’octroi de licences, tout en continuant de mettre l’accent comme il convient sur la protection sociale et environnementale. • Des réformes ont été mises en oeuvre dans certains secteurs de réseau, mais l’on pourrait encore faire jouer davantage la concurrence dans la téléphonie fixe et éviter les péréquations tarifaires dans le secteur de l’électricité. Les contrats de concession, tant pour les routes que pour le rail, pourraient être affinés afin de favoriser l’investissement privé à la fois dans l’entretien et dans l’extension des réseaux. Dans le domaine de l’eau et de l’assainissement, où l’insuffisance des investissements est la plus importante, les petites municipalités devraient être encouragées à investir et à former des consortiums afin de profiter des économies d’échelle réalisables. Ce document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE du Brésil 2011. (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/Bresil). |
| Keywords: | Brazil, infrastructure, PPPs, regulatory framework, Brésil, infrastructure, PPPs, cadre réglementaire |
| JEL: | H43 H54 H81 K23 |
| Date: | 2011–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:898-en&r=dev |
| By: | Isabel Ortiz; Matthew Cummins (Division of Policy and Practice,UNICEF) |
| Abstract: | This working paper: (i) provides an overview of global, regional and national income inequalities based on the latest distribution data from the World Bank, UNU-WIDER and Eurostat; (ii) discusses the negative implications of rising income inequality for development; (iii) calls for placing equity at the center of development in the context of the United Nations development agenda; (iv) describes the likelihood of inequalities being exacerbated during the global economic crisis; (v) advocates for urgent policy changes at national and international levels to ensure a “Recovery for All”; and, (vi) to serve as a general reference source, Annex 2 provides a summary of the most up-to-date income distribution and inequality data for 141 countries |
| Keywords: | income inequality, income distribution, quintiles, equity,crisis recovery, development policy |
| JEL: | D6 D63 D3 D31 O1 O2 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uce:wpaper:1102&r=dev |
| By: | Isabel Ortiz; Matthew Cummins (Division of Policy and Practice,UNICEF) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the food, fuel and financial shocks, a fourth wave of the global economic crisis began to sweep across developing countries in 2010: fiscal austerity. Serving as an update of earlier research by UNICEF, this working paper: (i) examines the latest IMF government spending projections for 128 developing countries, comparing the three periods of 2005-07 (pre-crisis), 2008-09 (crisis phase I: fiscal expansion) and 2010-12 (crisis phase II: fiscal contraction); (ii) discusses the possible risks for social expenditures; (iii) assesses the most common adjustment measures being considered by developing countries in 2010-11 and their potentially adverse impacts on vulnerable populations; and (iv) summarizes a series of alternative policy options that are available to governments to expand fiscal space and ensure a Recovery for All, including children and poor households. |
| Keywords: | fiscal consolidation, fiscal contraction, austerity measures, public expenditures, social spending, crisis recovery, poverty, wage bill, food and energy subsidies, pension reform, social protection |
| JEL: | H5 O23 H5 I3 J3 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uce:wpaper:1104&r=dev |
| By: | A. Yasemin Yalta |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tob:wpaper:1107&r=dev |
| By: | Mwangi wa Githinji (University of Massachusetts Amherst); Olugbenga Adesida (African Leadership Institute) |
| Abstract: | This essay explores the role of the state in promoting exports and industrialization in the quest for transformation of African economies. It does this by exploring the role of trade in African economies followed by a brief look at the East Asian Developmental state. This is followed by an examination of why many African states have failed at being drivers of transformation. It concludes by examining the potential role of African states in a project of transformation as well as the available avenues and resources for transformation. JEL Categories: O1; O2; O3; N17; N47; N57; N67; N77. |
| Keywords: | Africa; economic development; economic history; exports; industrialization; transformation;. |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2011-18&r=dev |
| By: | Deepankar Basu (University of Massachusetts Amherst) |
| Abstract: | Using cross country regressions, this paper constructs a novel distance-to-frontier metric for tracking broad socio-onomic inequality (including access of the poor to health infrastructure) over time for individual countries. Given the unavailability of reliable and consistent direct measures of inequality for most poor countries, especially related to non-income aspects of living standards, the metric developed in this paper can be used as an alternative indirect measure that is intuitive and easy to compute. To highlight its potential use, the metric is used to rank countries in terms of improvements in socio-economic inequality for the period since 1990. Notable examples of poor performance are displayed by China, Thailand, Kenya and India. JEL Categories: I14, O57, I32. |
| Keywords: | life expectancy at birth, Preston regression, socio-economic inequality |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2011-27&r=dev |
| By: | Sylvie Démurger (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France); Hui Xu (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how left-behind children influence return migration in China. We first present a simple model that incorporates economic and non-economic motives for migration duration (or intentions to return). Based on Dustmann (2003b), the parent is assumed to be altruistic and to care about the prospects of her left-behind children. We then propose two complementary empirical tests based on an original dataset from a rural household survey carried out in Wuwei County (Anhui province, China) in fall 2008. We first use a discrete-time proportional hazard model to estimate the determinants of migration duration for both on-going migrants with incomplete length of duration and return migrants with complete length of duration. Second, we apply a binary Probit model to study the return intentions of on-going migrants. Both models find consistent results regarding the role of left-behind children as a significant motive for return. First, left-behind children are found to pull their parents back to the village, the effect being stronger for pre-school children. Second, sons are found to play a more important role than daughters in reducing migration duration. |
| Keywords: | return migration, migration duration, left-behind children, discrete-time duration analysis, China |
| JEL: | J61 J13 C41 C25 O53 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1122&r=dev |
| By: | Sai Ding (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Shi Li (Beijing Normal University); Samuel L. Myers, Jr. (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201121&r=dev |
| By: | Jing Liu (Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing China); Shi Li (Beijing Normal University) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201111&r=dev |
| By: | Chuliang Luo (Beijing Normal University); Terry Sicular (University of Western Ontario) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201114&r=dev |
| By: | Shi Li (Beijing Normal University); Jin Song (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201120&r=dev |
| By: | Hiroshi Sato (Hitotsubashi University); Terry Sicular (University of Western Ontario); Ximing Yue (The People's University of China) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201112&r=dev |
| By: | John Knight (Beijing Normal University); Terry Sicular (University of Western Ontario); Ximing Yue (The People's University of China) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201113&r=dev |
| By: | Jing Xu (The People's University of China); Ximing Yue (The People's University of China) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201119&r=dev |
| By: | Quheng Deng (Beijing Normal University); Bjorn Gustafsson (University of Goteborg) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201116&r=dev |
| By: | Bjorn Gustafsson (University of Goteborg); Sai Ding (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Not available. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:201117&r=dev |
| By: | Gupta, Poonam; Panagariya, Arvind |
| Abstract: | With the exception Brander and Drazen (2008), who use a comprehensive cross-country database consisting of both developed and developing countries, the hypothesis that rapid growth helps incumbents win elections has been tested exclusively for the developed countries (e.g., Ray Fair 1978). But since sustained rapid growth offers the prospect of pulling vast numbers of the voters out of poverty within a generation, such an effect is far more likely to be present in the developing rather than developed countries. In this paper, we offer the first test of the hypothesis on a large developing and poor country, India, which has seen its economy grow 8 to 9 percent recently. We first generalize the Fair model to allow for multiple candidates instead for just two and then test it using cross-state data. We find quantitatively large and statistically robust effect of growth on the prospects of the candidates of the state incumbent parties to win elections. Specifically, we use the data on 422 candidates in the 2009 parliamentary elections and show that the candidates of incumbent parties in high-growth states have much better prospects of victory than those in low-growth states. |
| Keywords: | India; elections; growth; incumbents |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:34322&r=dev |
| By: | Simplice A., Asongu |
| Abstract: | Hitherto financial drivers of human development have been unexplored by the UNDP. This paper assesses determinants of human development from financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, size and activity on data from 38 developing countries. While the importance of financial activity, size and depth (in decreasing order) is significant for inequality adjusted human development, financial allocation efficiency significantly undermines welfare. As a policy implication results do not support financial allocation efficiency as a driver of human development. |
| Keywords: | Banking; human development; developing countries; instrumental variables |
| JEL: | O10 I00 E00 G20 |
| Date: | 2011–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33949&r=dev |
| By: | Jere R. Behrman (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Susan W. Parker (Division of Economics, Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (CIDE)) |
| Abstract: | Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs link public transfers to human capital investment in hopes of alleviating current poverty and reducing its intergenerational transmission. Whereas nearly all studies of their impacts have focused on youth, these CCT programs may also have an impact on aging adults, by increasing household resources or inducing changes in allocations of time of various household members, that may be of substantial interest, particularly given the rapid aging of most populations. This paper contributes to this under-researched area by examining health and work impacts on the aging for the best known and most influential of these programs, the Mexican PROGRESA/Oportunidades program. For a number of health indicators, the program appears to significantly improve health, with impacts that are larger with a greater time receiving the program. However, most of these health impacts are concentrated on women. |
| Keywords: | conditional cash transfers, aging, health, Mexico |
| JEL: | I38 |
| Date: | 2011–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:11-032&r=dev |
| By: | Lei, Yu-Hsiang; Michaels, Guy |
| Abstract: | We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery. |
| Keywords: | Armed Conflict; Civil War; Natural Resources; Petroleum; Resource Curse |
| JEL: | O13 Q33 Q34 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8620&r=dev |
| By: | Marijke Verpoorten; ; |
| Abstract: | More than 200 years after its first publication, the Malthusian thesis is still much debated, albeit in a modified form. Rather than predicting a global catastrophe, most neo-Malthusians stress the local character of the relationship between population pressure , natural resource scarcity, and conflict as well as its dependency on the socio-political and economic context. This softened version of Mathus' thesis has received little emphirical support in cross-country studies. In contrast, a number of sub-national analyses have provided some evidence for local conditional Malthusian catastrophes, although "catastrophe" is a big word since these studies have largely focused on low-intensity violence. This article adds to the small body of sub-national studies, but focuses on a high-intensity conflict, the Rwandan genocide. In particular, it provides a meso-level analysis of the relation between population pressure and the intensity of violence measured by the death toll among the Tutsi across 1,294 small administrative units. The results indicate that the death toll was significantly higher in localities with bothhigh population density and little opportunity for young men to acquire land. On the one hand, this finding can be interpreted as support for the neo-Malthusian thesis. On the other hand, it is possible that another mechanism played, i.e. in densely populated areas it may have been relatively easy for the elite to mobilize the population, because of dependency relations through the land and labor market. Alternatively, in densely populated areas, there may have been more lootable assets, and the violence may have been opportunistic rather than driven by need or by fear. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:29111&r=dev |
| By: | Di Mo; Hongmei Yi; Linxiu Zhang; Renfu Luo; Scott Rozelle; Carl Brinton |
| Abstract: | Recent anecdotal reports suggest that dropout rates may be higher and actually increasing over time in poor rural areas. There are many reasons not to be surprised that there is a dropout problem, given the fact that China has a high level of poverty among the rural population, a highly competitive education system and rapidly increasing wages for unskilled workers. The overall goal of this study is to examine if there is a dropout problem in rural China and to explore the effectiveness that a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program could have on dropouts (and mechanism by which the CCT might affect drop outs). To meet this objective, we conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a CCT using a sample of 300 junior high school students in a nationally-designated poor county in Northwest China. Using our data, we found that the annual dropout rate in the study county was high, about 7.0%. We find, however, that a CCT program reduces drop outs by 60%; the dropout rate is 13.3% in the control group and 5.3 % in the treatment group. The program is most effective in the case of girls, younger students and the poorest performing students. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lic:licosd:28311&r=dev |