nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2010‒06‒11
23 papers chosen by
Mark Lee
Towson University

  1. After the Financial Crisis: Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia By Robert Shelburne; Claudia Trentini
  2. Risk Coping Measures against Different Types of Shocks: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey By Masako Hasegawa
  3. Microfinance and Household Poverty Reduction: New evidence from India By Katsushi S. Imai; Thankom Arun; Samuel Kobina Annim
  4. Pro-Poor Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Rural Vietnam By Woojin Kang; Katsushi S. Imai
  5. Fertility, Parental Education and Development in India: New Evidence from National Household Survey Data By Katsushi S. Imai; Takahiro Sato
  6. The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa By Margaret Chitiga; Bernard Decaluwé; Ramos Mabugu; Hélène Maisonnave; Véronique Robichaud; Debra Shepherd; Servaas van der Berg; Dieter von Fintel
  7. Infrastructure and Poverty Reduction: Implications for Urban Development in Nigeria By Ogun, T. P.
  8. Central Asia after Two Decades of Independence By Pomfret, Richard
  9. Moderating Urbanization and Managing Growth: How Can Colombo Prevent the Emerging Chaos? By Dayaratne, Ranjith
  10. Fiscal Decentralization and Urbanization in Indonesia By Comola, Margherita; de Mello, Luiz
  11. Urban Development Transitions and their Implications for Poverty Reduction and Policy Planning in Uganda By Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Sengendo, Hannington; Lwasa, Shuaib
  12. A Phoenix in Flames? Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in Rural Burundi By Nillesen, Eleonora; Verwim, Philip
  13. Financial Development and Income in Developing Countries By Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
  14. Trade liberalization and poverty dynamics in Vietnam 2002-2006 By Barbara Coello; Madior Fall; Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann
  15. The Economics of Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events in Developing Countries By Brian Blankespoor; Benoit Laplante; David Wheeler; Susmita Dasgupta
  16. The (Indispensable) Middle Class in Developing Countries; or, The Rich a the Rest, Not the Poor and the Rest By Nancy Birdsall
  17. Delivering service indicators in education and health in Africa : a proposal By Bold, Tessa; Gauthier, Bernard; Svensson, Jakob; Wane, Waly
  18. Multidimensional poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean New evidence from the Gallup World Poll By Mariana Marchionni; Sergio Olivieri
  19. Yardstick competition in a Federation: Theory and Evidence from China By Emilie CALDEIRA
  20. Is there any relationship between Economic Growth and Human Development? Evidence from Indian States By Mukherjee, Sacchidananda; Chakraborty, Debashis
  21. Partition, migration, and jute cultivation in India By Fenske, James; Bharadwaj, Prashant
  22. Evaluating Aid Effectiveness in the Aggregate: A critical assessment of the evidence By Carl-Johan, Dalgaard; Henrik, Hansen
  23. Do international remittances cause Dutch disease? By Edsel, Beja Jr

  1. By: Robert Shelburne (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe); Claudia Trentini (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)
    Abstract: The Pan-European Region made significant progress from 1995 to 2007 in improving the economic, social, environmental and health indicators incorporated into the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, given the huge set-backs associated with the transition recession in the early 1990s and the more recent economic declines from the global financial crisis, achievement of some of the MDGs in a significant number of countries by 2015 is now problematic. The degree to which the actual targets can be achieved by 2015 will depend critically on: (i) the speed of recovery from the current crisis and the policy responses to it; (ii) the commitment by national governments to focus resources on the MDG objectives and their willingness to implement new policy initiatives, and (iii) the level of foreign assistance and regional cooperation that can be obtained. The EU new Member States (NMS) are most likely to meet the MDGs, while the prospects for the other European emerging economies are more mixed, especially for MDGs related to poverty and health. All of the Pan-European economies are falling short in terms of achieving environmental sustainability and gender equality.
    Keywords: millennium development goals, economic development, Europe, financial crisis, transition economies, CIS, Russia, caucasus, central Asia, health, education, environmental sustainability, gender, HIV, AIDS, Tuberculosis, trade,
    JEL: O10 O52 P20 P27 P36 I10 I20 I30 F02 J40
    Date: 2010–04
  2. By: Masako Hasegawa (Ph.D. student, Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP))
    Abstract: Income variability and additional medical consumption should be major shocks for farm households in developing countries. This paper investigates risk coping measures against these different types of shocks using Vietnamese Living Standard Measurement Study. Estimating results suggest that productive fixed assets are used for medical shock, while non-productive assets such as consumer goods are disposed for coping with income shock. This can be interpreted by nature of shocks, loan interest rate for coping shocks, and households' time preference under liquidity constraint. Consumer goods could be accumulated for precautionary motive and heavy debt of sickness may result in loss of productive fixed assets.
    Keywords: income and sickness shock, risk coping measures, assets, Vietnamese farm household
    JEL: D91 O16
    Date: 2010–05
  3. By: Katsushi S. Imai (Economics, School of Social Science, University of Manchester, UK); Thankom Arun (Institute of Development and Policy Management, School of Environment and Development, University of Manchester & Lancashire Business School, University of Central Lancashire, UK); Samuel Kobina Annim (Economics, School of Social Science, University of Manchester, UK)
    Abstract: The objective of the present study is to examine whether household access to microfinance reduces poverty. Using national household data from India, treatment effects model is employed to estimate the poverty-reducing effects of MFIs loans for productive purposes, such as investment in agriculture or non-farm businesses on household poverty levels. These models take into account the endogenous binary treatment effects and sample selection bias associated with access to MFIs. Despite some limitations, such as those arising from potential unobservable important determinants of access to MFIs, significant positive effect of MFI productive loans on multidimensional welfare indicator has been confirmed. The significance of treatment "effects" coefficients have been verified by both Tobit and Propensity Score Matching models. In addition, we found that loans for productive purposes were more important for poverty reduction in rural than in urban areas. However in urban areas, simple access to MFIs has larger average poverty-reducing effects than the access to loans from MFIs for productive purposes. This leads to exploring service delivery opportunities that provide an additional avenue to monitor the usage of loans to enhance the outreach.
    Keywords: Microfinance, Poverty, Evaluation, India, Propensity Score Matching
    JEL: C21 I30 I38 O16 R51
    Date: 2010–04
  4. By: Woojin Kang (Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK); Katsushi S. Imai (Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University)
    Abstract: This study explores the effects of Vietnam's transition on the welfare of different ethnic groups in rural Vietnam. It draws on three rounds of household surveys, VHLSS 2002, 2004 and 2006. It is first observed that the pace of poverty reduction for minorities surpassed the majority over the period 2002 to 2006, although poor people were still concentrated in the minority groups. Secondly, the disparity of living standards has been widening. In particular, inequality in both the majority and minority increased over the periods. Thirdly, the study shows that the pure effect of economic growth on poverty is estimated to have been greater if inequality remained constant. It is noted that the impacts of economic growth vary depending on which ethnic group a household belongs to. Finally, it is also confirmed from regression decompositions of within inequality that the main driver of inequality is not identical among different ethnic groups. Given the diversity across ethnic groups, we can conclude that the governmental policy aiming at equal access to infrastructure and more equal distribution of assets, such as land, for ethnic minority groups would lead to more equal distribution of consumption and poverty reduction of those groups. Also, consideration of local needs of each ethnic minority group would be necessary in designing and implementing public policies given the heterogeneous socio-economic circumstances surrounding each ethnic minority group.
    Keywords: Vietnam, Ethnic minority, Growth, Poverty, Inequality, Decomposition
    JEL: C21 I32 P36
    Date: 2010–05
  5. By: Katsushi S. Imai (Economics, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, UK and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University); Takahiro Sato (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University)
    Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the determinants of fertility drawing upon large household data sets in India, namely NSS and NFHS over the period 1992-2006. Broadly similar and consistent results are found for the two surveys for different years. We have found a negative and significant association between the number of children and mother' s education. Both direct and indirect effects are observed for mother' s education which not just directly reduces fertility but also increases mother' s potential wages or opportunity costs which would deter her from having a baby. Father' s education became increasingly important in reducing fertility in the last two rounds.
    Keywords: Fertility, Parental Education, NSS (National Sample Survey), NFHS (National Family Health Survey), India, Asia
    Date: 2010–05
  6. By: Margaret Chitiga (Department of Economics, Pretoria University); Bernard Decaluwé (Department of Economics, Laval University); Ramos Mabugu (Financial and Fiscal Commission, South Africa); Hélène Maisonnave; Véronique Robichaud (Department of Economics, Laval University); Debra Shepherd (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Servaas van der Berg (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Dieter von Fintel (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.
    Keywords: Economic crisis, Computable general equilibrium, Forecasting and simulation, Almost ideal demand system, Child poverty measurement, South Africa
    JEL: C31 C68 D31 E37 I32
    Date: 2010
  7. By: Ogun, T. P.
    Abstract: The paper investigates the impact of infrastructural development on poverty reduction in Nigeria. Specifically, the relative effects of physical and social infrastructure on living standards or poverty indicators are examined, with a view to providing emp
    Keywords: African urbanism, everyday practices, social infrastructures, urban violence
    Date: 2010
  8. By: Pomfret, Richard
    Abstract: After becoming independent in 1991, the five Central Asian countries pursued differing transition paths from the defunct central planning. This paper analyses the connection between economic policies and performance during the 1990s and 2000s.
    Keywords: Central Asia, transition from central planning
    Date: 2010
  9. By: Dayaratne, Ranjith
    Abstract: This paper examines urbanization trends, the growth of Colombo and its present state of development. It looks at the approaches to the planned interventions in the city and demonstrates how a uni-directional urban development has had a detrimental impact
    Keywords: Colombo, urban development, managing urbanization, planning, housing,
    Date: 2010
  10. By: Comola, Margherita; de Mello, Luiz
    Abstract: Indonesia went through a process of fiscal decentralization in 2001 involving the devolution of several policymaking and service delivery functions to the subnational tiers of government (provinces and districts). This process is likely to have affected r
    Keywords: Indonesia, minimum wage, federalism, urbanization
    Date: 2010
  11. By: Mukwaya, Paul Isolo; Sengendo, Hannington; Lwasa, Shuaib
    Abstract: Urbanization is one of the critical global trends shaping the future of humanity. At the same time, it has been argued that full development requires an urbanized environment. This paper attempts to examine and characterize the major phases of urbanizatio
    Keywords: transitions, urbanization, planning, poverty, Uganda
    Date: 2010
  12. By: Nillesen, Eleonora; Verwim, Philip
    Abstract: This paper challenges the idea that farmers revert to subsistence farming when confronted with violence from civil war. Macro-economic evidence on economic legacies of civil war suggests that civil wars, while obviously disastrous in the short run, do not
    Keywords: Civil war, investment, post-traumatic growth
    Date: 2010
  13. By: Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
    Abstract: This paper presents an empirical analysis of the controversial relationship between financial system development and economic development. Using cointegration and VAR estimations on annual data from Africa, we examine the nature of the relationship between financial development and income. We find mixed results on both the short and the long-run relationships between the two variables. We find finance causing income, income causing finance, and bi-directional causality. The results indicate that neither the short-run effects nor the long-run relationship seem to linearly depend on the level of financial development or the stage of development.
    JEL: E44 O16 G20
    Date: 2010–05
  14. By: Barbara Coello; Madior Fall; Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann
    Abstract: This paper shows the evolution of poverty in Vietnam during the deepening of trade liberalization and examines the impact of trade-related variables at the household level. The study is based on a panel dataset of households followed in 2002, 2004 and 2006. Trade-related variables at the household level are defined as the household specialization in terms of production and employment with respect to the type of jobs (wage earners or self-employed) and sectors (import-competing or exported manufactured goods, services, and in agriculture, rice, exported, subsistence and import-competing crops). For the poor, besides the expected positive impact of working in an export-related sector (in industry and in agriculture), diversification in self-employed non-farm activities appears to have been efficient at alleviating poverty. Moreover, the import-competing sectors (in industry and in agriculture) play also a positive role in poverty alleviation. The latter channel could be hindered in the near future, as Vietnam is now in the process of decreasing its import protection.
    Date: 2010
  15. By: Brian Blankespoor; Benoit Laplante; David Wheeler; Susmita Dasgupta
    Abstract: Without a better understanding of the interactions between international players, households and public sector, it will be difficult for climate negotiators and donor institutions to determine the appropriate levels and modes of adaptation assistance. This paper contributes by assessing the economics of adaptation to extreme weather events. [Working Paper 199]
    Keywords: weather, donor, institutions, developing countries, international assistance, public sector, climate change, geographically, vulnerability, communities, households, international, vulnerability, socio economic, demographic, population, droughts, economies, human development,
    Date: 2010
  16. By: Nancy Birdsall
    Abstract: In this paper an argument is made that the concept of inclusive growth should go beyond the traditional emphasis on the poor (and the rest) and take into account changes in the size and economic command of the group conventionally defined as neither poor nor rich, i.e., the middle class. (Working Paper No. 207
    Keywords: global, economics, tradeoffs, fiscal burden, donors, development, concept, inclusive growth, traditional, emphasis, economic command, conventionally, central, economic goal, middle class, rich, cash transfers, country, traditional poor, developing countries,
    Date: 2010
  17. By: Bold, Tessa; Gauthier, Bernard; Svensson, Jakob; Wane, Waly
    Abstract: The Delivering Service Indicators seek to provide a set of indices for benchmarking service delivery performance in education and health in Africa in order to track progress in and across countries over time. It seeks to enhance effective and active monitoring of service delivery systems and to become an instrument of public accountability and good governance in Africa. The main perspective adopted by the Delivering Service Indicators index is one of citizens accessing services and facing potential shortcomings in those services available to them. The index is thus presented as a Service Delivery Report Card on education and health. However, unlike traditional citizen report cards, it assembles objective information from micro level surveys of service delivery units.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Governance Indicators,Public Sector Expenditure Policy,Population Policies,Education For All
    Date: 2010–06–01
  18. By: Mariana Marchionni (Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas - Universidad Nacional de La Plata); Sergio Olivieri (Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas - Universidad Nacional de La Plata)
    Date: 2010–06
  19. By: Emilie CALDEIRA
    Abstract: While some scholars argue that fiscal decentralization gave Chinese local officials strong incentives to promote local economic growth, traditional fiscal federalism theories are not directly relevant to explain such an effect in the particular context of China. In this paper, we explain the existence of interjurisdictional competition among Chinese local officials using a model of yardstick competition "from the top", in which the central government (and not local voters) creates a competition among local officials by rewarding or punishing them on the basis of relative economic performance. Our model predicts that, in this context, local governments are forced to care about what other incumbents are doing and that public spending settings are strategic complements. Then, by estimating a spatial lag dynamic model for a panel data of 29 Chinese provinces from 1980 to 2004, we provide empirical evidence of the existence of such public spending interactions. We propose a rigorous empirical framework which takes into account heterogeneity, simultaneity and endogeneity problems and spatial error dependence. The results are encouraging to the view that there are some strategic interactions among Chinese provinces, resulting from a yardstick competition created by the central government.
    Keywords: decentralization, China, public spending interactions, yardstick competition, spatial panel data
    JEL: H7 H2 D72
    Date: 2010
  20. By: Mukherjee, Sacchidananda; Chakraborty, Debashis
    Abstract: The paper attempts to analyse the relationship between economic growth and human development for 28 major Indian States during four time periods ranging over last two decades: 1983, 1993, 1999-00 and 2004-05. To construct Human Development Index for Indian States, we consider the National Human Development Report 2001 Methodology. The objective of this exercise to understand at what degree and extent the per capita income (as an indicator of economic growth) has influenced the human development across Indian States. To understand the rural – urban disparity in the achievement of human development, the Human Development Index is constructed for rural and urban areas separately for each of the States. The result shows that that per capita income is not translating into human well being. This perhaps in another way might signify the rising influence of other variables in determination of the HD achievements of a state. The result shows the need for further investigation to determine the underlying factors (other than per capita income) which influence HD achievements of a State.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Human Development; Human Development Index Methodology; Economic Liberalisation; Indian States
    JEL: O47 H75 O15 E21 C01
    Date: 2010–05–31
  21. By: Fenske, James; Bharadwaj, Prashant
    Abstract: Climate change is expected to displace millions of involuntary migrants in Bangladesh. We draw on history to show that these ``environmental refugees'' can play a positive role in the regions that receive them by looking at the partition of India. We use an instrumental variables (IV) strategy to show that the migrants played a major role in India's take-up of jute cultivation. Our estimates suggest that migrants fully explain post-Partition jute cultivation. Consistent with migrants bringing jute-specific skills with them, we find that migrants increased jute yields and did not increase the cultivation of other crops.
    Keywords: Jute; Partition; Migration; India
    JEL: N55 O13
    Date: 2010–03
  22. By: Carl-Johan, Dalgaard; Henrik, Hansen
    Abstract: The purpose of the present evaluation study is to discuss the empirical studies that attempt to estimate the impact of foreign aid on economic growth. The study draws on a previous evaluation study (Dalgaard and Hansen, 2009), which introduces the general econometric methodology involved in making assessments about the aggregate impact of aid. In order to fully benefit from the discussion below it is therefore advisable for readers without prior knowledge of econometrics to review the material discussed in Dalgaard and Hansen (2009). The present study provides insights into the following questions 1. What are the central mechanisms linking aid to growth? 2. How much should one expect from aid a priori? 3. What are the best available estimates of the impact from total aid on economic growth in income per capita? 4. Does aid modality matter?
    Keywords: Economic growth; foreign aid
    JEL: O11 C13 O47
    Date: 2010–01
  23. By: Edsel, Beja Jr
    Abstract: The diagnosis: Dutch disease caused by international remittances afflicts the middle income countries but not the upper income and low income countries. The middle income countries can inoculate their economies from getting the disease with robust macro and sectoral economy conditions. But if they get infected, and their condition is not managed well or the illness is treated, Dutch disease could cripple their economies.
    Keywords: Dutch disease; international remittances; tradable sector; non-tradable sector
    JEL: O1 F22 O41 O5 F24 O14
    Date: 2010–06–01

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