nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2010‒02‒27
27 papers chosen by
Mark Lee
Towson University

  1. Institutional Analysis to explain the Success of Moroccan Microfinance Institutions By Virginie Allaire; Arvind Ashta; Laurence Attuel-Mendes; Karuna Krishnaswamy
  2. Lazy Rotten Sons? Relatedness, gender and the intra-household allocation of work and leisure in South Africa By Martin Wittenberg
  3. Migration from the Northern Cape By Eldridge Moses; Derek Yu
  4. Household responses to adverse income shocks: Pensioner out-migration and mortality in South Africa By Vimal Ranchhod
  5. Re-weighting the OHS and LFS National household Survey Data to create a consistent series over time: A Cross Entropy Estimation Approach By Nicola Branson
  6. The impact of AIDS on intergenerational support in South Africa: Evidence from the Cape Area Panel Study By Cally Ardington; Anne Case; Mahnaz Islam; David Lam; Murray Leibbrandt; Alicia Menendez; Analia Olgiati
  7. Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania: By Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
  8. Toward a typology of food security in developing countries: By Yu, Bingxin; You, Liangzhi; Fan, Shenggen
  9. Formal-informal economy linkages and unemployment in South Africa: By Davies, Rob; Thurlow, James
  10. Who should be interviewed in surveys of household income?: By Fisher, Monica; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Carr, Edward R.
  11. Internal migration and rural service provision in northern Ghana: By Wouterse, Fleur
  12. Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya: By Thurlow, James
  13. Entrepreneurial Activity and Civil War in Colombia: Exploring the Mutual Determinants between Armed Conflict and the Private Sector By Rettberg, Angelika; Leiteritz, Ralf; Nasi, Carlo
  14. Conflict and Entrepreneurial Activity in Afghanistan: Findings from the National Risk Vulnerability Assessment Data By Ciarli, Tommaso; Parto, Saeed; Savona, Maria
  15. Returns to Education and Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from Argentina By López Bóo, Florencia
  16. Accounting for China's Growth By Loren Brandt; Xiaodong Zhu
  17. Innovation, Productivity and Economic Development in Latin America and the Caribbean By Christian Daude
  18. Providing Greater Old-Age Security in China By Richard Herd; Hu-Wei Hu; Vincent Koen
  19. Improving China's Health Care System By Richard Herd; Yu-Wei Hu; Vincent Koen
  20. Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long Run View By Bordo, Michael D.; Meissner, Christopher M.; Stuckler, David
  21. The impact of roads on poverty reduction : a case study of Cameroon By Gachassin, Marie; Najman, Boris; Raballand, Gael
  22. A new approach to producing geographic profiles of HIV prevalence : an application to Malawi By Ivaschenko, Oleksiy; Lanjouw, Peter
  23. Prospects of Non-Farm Employment and Welfare in Rural Areas By Simrit Kaur; Vani S. Kulkarni; Raghav Gaiha; Manoj K. Pandey
  24. History Matters: The Long Term Impact of Colonial Public Investments in French West Africa. By Huillery, Elise
  25. Remittances, Public Health Spending and Foreign Aid in the Access to Health Care Services in Developing Countries By Alassane DRABO; Christian EBEKE
  26. How Can Economic and Political Liberalisation Improve Financial Development in African Countries? By Enowbi Batuo, Michael; Kupukile, Mlambo
  27. The Blessing of Natural Resources: Evidence from a Peruvian Gold Mine By Aragon, Fernando; Rud, Juan

  1. By: Virginie Allaire (CEREN, Burgundy School of Business (Groupe ESC Dijon-Bourgogne), France); Arvind Ashta (Centre Emile Bernheim, CERMi, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels and CEREN, Burgundy School of Business (Groupe ESC Dijon-Bourgogne), France); Laurence Attuel-Mendes (CEREN, Burgundy School of Business (Groupe ESC Dijon-Bourgogne), France); Karuna Krishnaswamy
    Abstract: This paper looks at whether Morocco meets the usual criteria of a country where MFIs can succeed and what distinguishes Morocco from its North African neighbors (Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) where a priori the culture is similar even though institutions may be different. The paper uses the similarities and differences of these five countries to identify cultural, institutional, economic and geographic factors which explain why Microfinance in particular and development in general arrives sooner in some environments than in others. The objective of the research is to identify controllable institutional factors which can be introduced in regulation to enable Microfinance to succeed in a country. We used a case study approach combined with a little bit of correlation analysis. The case study approach is the most adapted to studying small samples in more detail. The success of Microfinance is linked to population density, smallness of a country's geographical size and its poverty as well as the amount of international donor funds it has received. The availability of oil exports as revenues may lead to a delay in developing microfinance. Establishing a specific legal framework for Microfinance, such as in Morocco, may help foster the growth of Microfinance. The existence of Apex organizations for centralizing international aid and redistributing funds may in fact lead to lower donor participation since their choices are reduced and an extra level of bureaucratic costs is imposed. The results also indicate the need for a better quality database than that currently provided by the MIX. Biases may come in from the small sample size as well as from the lack of data on Libya. Future research may focus on correlation with violence, corruption, women's rights, political risk and economic sanctions. The findings would lead microfinance institutions to lobby for specific laws, more initial direct donor funding, less government apex distribution and better information databases. This kind of comparative institutional analysis has not been performed, at least for this region.
    Keywords: Institutional analysis, regulation, microfinance, North Africa
    Date: 2009–06
  2. By: Martin Wittenberg (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)
    Abstract: We investigate the balance between work (including home production), leisure and personal care (chiefly sleep) within South African households. We use the South African time use survey which enables us to obtain a better measure of the division of total labour (paid and unpaid) within South African households than previous studies have been able to. Furthermore we construct a measure of "genetic" relatedness between the respondent and other members of the household. We find that women that are more closely related to other household members do more work and enjoy less leisure than more peripheral individuals. Single men, by contrast, seem to do less work and enjoy more leisure if they are more closely related to other household members. Our findings are not compatible with the unitary model of the household. They suggest that men extract extra leisure because of the anticipated altruism shown by women.
    Date: 2009–01
  3. By: Eldridge Moses; Derek Yu
    Abstract: In South Africa, the causes of migration and its impact on society first became entrenched, institutionalised and studied in the latter decades of the 19th Century as mining activity catapulted the country onto the world economic stage. As South Africa evolved into a more modern, capitalist society and agriculture became a less attractive employment option due to a period of crisis at the end of the 1800s, various population groups started migrating towards urban centres. Rural Afrikaners who had been displaced from their land and Black labour migrants constituted the bulk of migrants to urban centres. These population sub-groups were quite different in the motivations and outcomes of their migration, with many of the rural Afrikaners being absorbed into state employment while Black movers were mostly labour migrants.
    Date: 2009–06
  4. By: Vimal Ranchhod
    Abstract: How do poor households respond to the cessation of cash transfers in developing countries? South Africa's generous social pension system results in most of the poor elderly being the primary 'breadwinner' in the household. I estimate the magnitude of the changes in household composition and labour force activity amongst the resident members of the household, that correlate with a pensioner leaving the household. I use nationally representative matched panel data from several waves of the South African Labour Force Surveys. Compositional changes include the out-migration of school-aged children, and in-migration of middle aged females and older adults of either gender. More than 1 in 4 losing households get an additional older adult. For people who maintain their residency status across waves, I nd large and statistically signi cant increases in employment rates for middle aged females and males (9.3 and 8.1 percentage points in each case), as well as for older adult females and males (10.3 percentage points in each case). For middle aged adults, this is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in labour supply.
    Date: 2009–07
  5. By: Nicola Branson
    Abstract: In the absence of South African longitudinal data for the ten years post apartheid, national cross-sectional household survey data is frequently used to analyse change over time. When these data are stacked side-by-side however, they reveal inconsistencies both in trends across time and between the household and person level data. These inconsistencies can introduce biases into research which analyse change. This study calculates a new set of person and household weights for the October Household Surveys between 1995 and 1999 and the Labour Force Surveys between 2000 and 2004. A cross entropy estimation approach is used. This approach is favoured because the calculated weights are similar to the initial sample weights (and hence retain the survey design benefits) while simultaneously being consistent with aggregate auxiliary data. A consistent series of aggregates from the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) model and the 1996 and 2001 South African Census data are used as benchmarks. The new weights result in consistent demographic and geographic trends over time and greater consistency between person and household level data.
    Date: 2009–09
  6. By: Cally Ardington (SALDRU, University of Cape Town); Anne Case; Mahnaz Islam; David Lam; Murray Leibbrandt (SALDRU, University of Cape Town); Alicia Menendez; Analia Olgiati
    Abstract: We use panel data collected in metropolitan Cape Town to document the role played by aging parents in caring for the children of children who die. In addition, we quantify the probabilities that older adults and the older adults' children provide financial support to orphaned grandchildren. We find significant transfers of public and private funds to older adults in households with orphans. Perhaps for this reason, we see no difference in expenditure patterns between households with orphans and other older adult households. With respect to older adults' quality of life, we find no effect of reporting that a child died, or of co-residence with orphaned grandchildren, on the older adults' reports of depression, or on their self-assessed health.
    Date: 2009–02
  7. By: Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: Rapid economic growth has failed to significantly improve poverty and nutrition outcomes in Tanzania. This raises concerns over a decoupling of growth, poverty, and nutrition. We link recent production trends to household incomes using a regionalized, dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. Results indicate that the structure of economic growth—not the level—is currently constraining the rate of poverty reduction in Tanzania. Most importantly, agricultural growth trends have been driven by larger-scale farmers and by crops grown in only a few regions of the country. The slow expansion of food crops and livestock also explains the weak relationship between agricultural growth and nutrition outcomes. Additional model simulations find that accelerating agricultural growth, particularly in maize, greatly strengthens the growth–poverty relationship and enhances households' caloric availability. We conclude that low productivity, market constraints (including downstream agroprocessing), and barriers to import substitution for major food crops are among the more binding constraints to reducing poverty and improving nutrition in Tanzania.
    Keywords: economic growth, Poverty, Nutrition, household incomes, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Agricultural growth, Microsimulation model, livestock, Food crops, low productivity, market constraints, Development strategies,
    Date: 2010
  8. By: Yu, Bingxin; You, Liangzhi; Fan, Shenggen
    Abstract: The recent global food and financial crises have reversed the last decade's progress in reducing hunger and poverty. This paper conducts a factor and sequential typology analysis to identify groups of countries categorized according to five measures of food security—consumption, production, imports, distribution, and agricultural potential—by using indicators from 175 countries. The analysis first identifies five distinct food security groups, characterized by food intake, and then further splits these groups based on the various measures of food production, trade security, and agricultural potential. The results suggest that the general category of “developing countries” is extremely heterogeneous and is not particularly useful if the focus is on issues of food security. The results also indicate that different responses are needed by different types of food-insecure countries to address the food and financial crises.
    Keywords: food security, Typology, agricultural potential, factor analysis, Poverty, Hunger, financial crisis, Developing countries, Development strategies,
    Date: 2010
  9. By: Davies, Rob; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: South Africa's high involuntary unemployment and small informal sector are attributed to an underperforming formal sector and barriers to entry in the informal sector. This paper examines the economywide linkages between the formal and informal economies while accounting for different types of informal activities. A multiregion empirically calibrated general equilibrium model is developed capturing both product and labor markets. Three policy options are considered. First, results indicate that trade liberalization reduces national employment. At the same time, it increases formal employment, hurts informal producers, and favors informal traders, who benefit from lower import prices. Past liberalization may, therefore, partly explain South Africa's small informal sector and its concentration among traders rather than producers. Second, wage subsidies on low-skilled formal workers increase national employment but hurt informal producers by heightening competition in domestic product markets. This suggests that it is insufficient to examine unemployment policies by focusing only on labor markets. Third, unconditional cash transfers stimulate demand for informally produced products, thereby raising informal employment without undermining formal producers. The transfer does, however, place a large fiscal burden on the state and is less effective at reducing national unemployment than a wage subsidy. Overall, these findings underline the importance of distinguishing between the formal and informal sector implications of socioeconomic policies.
    Keywords: informal economy, involuntary unemployment, formal economy, labor markets, trade liberalization, national employment, Cash transfers, wage subsidy, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Development strategies,
    Date: 2009
  10. By: Fisher, Monica; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Carr, Edward R.
    Abstract: This study tests the null hypothesis that it is sufficient to interview only the household head to obtain accurate information on household income. The results show that using a husband's estimate of his wife's income does not produce statistically reliable results for poverty analysis. Estimates of the wife's income separately provided by the husband and wife agree in only 6 percent of the studied households. This indicates that although limiting interviews to one person can reduce the time and expense of household surveys, this appears to be detrimental to accuracy, and may lead to incorrect conclusions on the determinants of poverty.
    Keywords: Household income, Poverty, household dynamics, Gender, Household surveys, Development strategies,
    Date: 2010
  11. By: Wouterse, Fleur
    Abstract: This paper uses a two-stage conditional maximum likelihood procedure and new data from Ghana to identify the determinants of rural-urban migration at the individual, household and community levels, with a particular focus on rural services. The econometric evidence supports the theoretical expectation that human-capital and network variables as well as assets are important determinants of migration. Taking the possible endogeneity of rural services into account, the evidence suggests that rural service improvements aimed at reducing economic isolation can enhance labor mobility and free up on-farm labor for migration by lowering transaction costs.
    Keywords: Rural-urban migration, rural services, Development strategies,
    Date: 2010
  12. By: Thurlow, James
    Abstract: Kenya is vulnerable to avian flu given its position along migratory bird routes and proximity to other high-risk countries. This raises concerns about the effect an outbreak could have on economic development. We use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Kenya to simulate potential outbreaks of different severities, durations, and geographic spreads. Results indicate that even a severe outbreak does not greatly reduce economic growth. It does, however, significantly worsen poverty, because poultry is an important income source for poor farmers and a major food item in consumers' baskets. Avian flu therefore does pose a threat to future development in Kenya. Reducing the duration and geographic spread of an outbreak is found to substantially lower economic losses. However, losses are still incurred when poultry demand falls, even without a confirmed outbreak but only the threat of an outbreak. Our findings support monitoring poultry production and trade, responding rapidly to possible infections, and improving both farmers' and consumers' awareness of avian flu.
    Keywords: Avian influenza Developing countries, avian flu, economic growth, Poverty, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, Development strategies,
    Date: 2010
  13. By: Rettberg, Angelika; Leiteritz, Ralf; Nasi, Carlo
    Abstract: TAs elsewhere, the Colombian private sector has been accused of promoting or profiting from violence in the country. However, the private sector’s role in the armed conflict and the impact of conflict on entrepreneurial activity vary, as reflected by differences in political activism, in peacebuilding strategies and in costs endured according to company size, sector, and region of operations. At the same time, accounts of regional variation in conflict intensity suggest that an understanding of the Colombian confrontation requires a subnational approach. This paper explores whether and how differences in regional armed armed conflict can be attributed to differences in entrepreneurial make-up and activity associated with five natural resources, produced in different regions (oil, coffee, bananas, emeralds, and flowers). This paper suggests that company-specific traits, institutions of production, and the nature of international markets have a significant impact on the link between entrepreneurial activity and armed conflict in Colombian regions.
    Keywords: Colombia, armed conflict, entrepreneurship, private sector, natural resources, multinational companies
    Date: 2010
  14. By: Ciarli, Tommaso; Parto, Saeed; Savona, Maria
    Abstract: The paper examines the relationship between conflict and entrepreneurial activity in Afghanistan, drawing upon a unique data set, the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment household survey 2005. Afghanistan is severely underdeveloped and poor. Conflict has persisted in vast swathes of the country for decades, so that Afghanistan may be more appropriately described as an in-, rather than post-, conflict country. At the same time, qualitative (and anecdotal) evidence suggests that entrepreneurial activity is ubiquitous, although mainly due to survival strategies rather than a spirit of entrepreneurialism We empirically explore whether conflict affects the likelihood of a household to engage in entrepreneurial activity, proxied by sources of income coming from holding a small business. We control for the household characteristics and those of the environment, such as social capital, access to resources and infrastructure, as well as the presence of a minimal institutional governance system, to isolate the impact of conflict on household entrepreneurial behaviour. We find that the direct negative effect of the conflict on entrepreneurship is very small. The results on the control variables suggest that (i) the generation of entrepreneurship has seen conflict and instability for a whole life,( ii) a small business is a mean of surviving in a situation where any other support is lacking, (iii) it is a viable strategy when the household can cover some of the associated risks, (iv) there is no indirect effect of conflict via institutions and infrastructure, and (v) entrepreneurial activity may substitute for lacking markets and governance institutions. These results call for further and more in-depth research on Afghanistan as an overlooked area of study by the academic and development research community despite representing a priority for internationally supported reconstruction.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, conflict, Afghanistan, national risk vulnerability assessment
    Date: 2010
  15. By: López Bóo, Florencia (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: Returns to schooling in urban Argentina increased from 1992 to 2003, a period of economic reforms and macroeconomic volatility. In this paper I provide the most consistent estimates of returns to education so far, while I also investigate earnings profiles over time. This paper contributes to the existing literature by employing a variety of methodologies in order to estimate these returns and by using macroeconomic time series to explore shifts in earnings. The pattern of the increasing returns to education changes after the 2001 crisis. Until then, increasing convexity in the earnings-education profile reflects increasing or stable earnings for college graduates combined with decreasing earnings for the less educated. After the crisis, the increasing premium to education results from wages falling at a faster pace for the less educated than for college graduates. This result is robust to endogenous supply responses, selection, specification, changes in the functional form and to the inclusion of household fixed effects. I also find that rates of return to education are upward biased by up to 20 per cent by the omission of unobserved family background factors (i.e. family fixed effects). Surprisingly, after controlling for macroeconomic variables I still find a statistically and economically significant downward trend for all earnings, particularly those of primary completers.
    Keywords: returns to schooling, earnings profiles, occupations, macroeconomic shocks, policy swings, Argentina
    JEL: I21 J31
    Date: 2010–02
  16. By: Loren Brandt; Xiaodong Zhu
    Abstract: China has achieved impressive growth over the last three decades. However, there has been debate over the sources of the growth, and the role of the intensive versus extensive margin. Growth accounting exercises at the aggregate level (Rawski and Perkins, 2008; Bosworth and Collins, 2008) suggest an equal role for both. But for the non-agricultural sector, there have been doubts about the contribution of TFP improvements to growth. For the period between 1978 and 1998, Young (2003) stresses the role of labor deepening, including the reallocation from agriculture, while more recent analysis point to the role of rising rates of investment. Because labor reallocations across sectors, TFP growth at the sector level and investment are all inter-related, simple growth decompositions that are often used in the literature are not appropriate for quantifying their contributions to growth. In this paper, we develop a three sector model to quantify the sources of China's growth. The sectors include agriculture, and within non-agriculture, the state and non-state components. We find only a modest role for labor reallocation and capital deepening, and identify rising TFP in the non-state nonagricultural sector as the key driver of growth. We also find significant misallocation of capital: The much less efficient state sector continues to absorb more than half of all fixed investment. If capital had been allocated efficiently, China could have achieved the same growth performance without any increase in the rate of aggregate investment. This has important implications for China as it tries to rebalance its growth. Finally, in light of important concerns over data, we examine the robustness of our key results to alternative data
    Keywords: China, Growth, TFP, Investment, intensive vs extensive margins
    JEL: E2 O4
    Date: 2010–02–16
  17. By: Christian Daude
    Abstract: GDP per capita in Latin America has been falling behind high-income countries and other benchmarks for decades and the region’s mediocre growth performance is one of the main reasons why poverty reduction, and living standards more generally, in the region is well below that observed in peer countries. In this paper, we explore some of the potential roots of this poor performance by using development accounting techniques. The results point towards total factor productivity as the main culprit for the region’s lack of convergence. In order to investigate what causes the lack of productivity catch-up, we analyse the determinants of technology diffusion, in particular of internet and mobile phone technologies. The empirical results show that institutions, absorption capacity (human capital), and financial constraints are the main explanatory variables of the diffusion gaps in these technologies between the OECD and Latin America. We also explore the performance of the region in terms of health outcomes, reflected in the evolution of life expectancy, and the specific role played by technological innovation and adoption. Finally, a calibration exercise of an endogenous growth model allows us to assess the extent to which the region’s per capita income gap is due to problems in factor accumulation or distortions that reduce the incentives to innovate; the results point to very different situations across countries in the region. While for some countries we find evidence of ‚innovation shortfalls?, other countries’ problems concentrate around low factor accumulation.<BR>En Amérique latine, le PIB par habitant n’a eu de cesse depuis plusieurs décennies de reculer par rapport à celui des pays à hauts revenus et d’autres pays de références. Les mauvaises performances de la région en terme de croissance sont l’une des principales raisons pour lesquelles la réduction de la pauvreté, et de façon générale le niveau de vie, sont bien plus faibles que ceux observés dans les pays. Dans cet article, nous explorons certaines des raisons potentielles de cette mauvaise performance à l’aide de techniques comptables de développement. Les résultats tendent à montrer que la principale cause de l’absence de convergence de la région est la productivité totale des facteurs. Afin de rechercher pourquoi ces pays n’ont pas comblé leur retard de productivité, nous analysons les déterminants des technologies de diffusion, et en particulier internet et les technologies de téléphonie mobile. Les résultats empiriques montrent que les institutions, la capacité d’absorption (capital humain) et les contraintes financières sont les principales variables explicatives de l’écart qui existe entre les pays de l’OCDE et ceux de l’Amérique latine concernant la diffusion de ces technologies. Nous explorons également la performance de la région en matière de santé, mesurée par l’évolution de l’espérance de vie, et le rôle spécifique joué par l’innovation et l’adoption technologique. Finalement, un exercice de calibrage d’un modèle de croissance endogène nous permet d’évaluer jusqu’à quel point la différence de revenu par tête au sein de la région est due à des problèmes d’allocation des facteurs ou à des distorsions qui diminuent les incitations à innover. Les résultats varient fortement d’un pays à l’autre au sein de la région. Si pour certains pays nous mettons en évidence un « manque d’innovation », pour d’autres, la faible accumulation de facteurs demeure le principal problème.
    Keywords: economic growth, innovation, Latin America, total factor productivity, croissance économique, innovation, Amérique latine, productivité totale des facteurs
    JEL: O10 O30 O47
    Date: 2010–02
  18. By: Richard Herd; Hu-Wei Hu; Vincent Koen
    Abstract: China’s population is set to age fast, owing to low fertility and rising life expectancy. With ongoing migration of the younger cohorts to urban areas the increase in the old-age dependency ratio will be even more pronounced in rural than in urban areas. Very different pension arrangements exist across the country, with diverse and segmented systems in urban areas, belated retirement and low replacement ratios in rural areas, and special rules governing public sector pensions. Labour mobility is impeded by some of features of the current pension system, not least limited benefit portability. Various reforms have been initiated or proposed over the past decade. Some add to the existing fragmentation, while others, notably those providing for greater geographical pooling, have only partly been implemented. Also, under current rules, effective replacement rates are fairly low and projected to decline further, both for rural and urban residents, which may be difficult to sustain with the elderly living less and less with their descendants. Furthermore, as the countryside ages, much of the additional burden will be shouldered by local governments with insufficient resources. These challenges can be addressed by gradually consolidating the various regimes, raising retirement ages and shifting more of the cost of rural pensions to the central government. Even if different schemes for different categories of workers were to persist, each should be unified over time, first provincially and then nationally, phasing out the urban-rural distinction.<P>Offrir davantage de sécurité aux personnes âgées en Chine<BR>La population de la Chine devrait vieillir rapidement, en raison d’une faible fécondité et de l’allongement de l’espérance de vie. Dans un contexte de migration des cohortes plus jeunes vers les agglomérations, la hausse du taux de dépendance économique des personnes âgées sera encore plus soutenue en milieu rural que dans les zones urbaines. Des mécanismes de retraite très variés co-existent: systèmes divers et segmentés en ville, retraite tardive et faibles taux de remplacement dans les campagnes, et règles spécifiques régissant les retraites du secteur public. La mobilité de la main d’oeuvre est freinée par certains aspects du système de retraite actuel, notamment une portabilité restreinte des prestations. Des réformes ont été initiées ou proposées au cours de la décennie écoulée. Certaines accentuent la fragmentation existante, alors que d’autres, en particulier celles visant à intensifier le regroupement géographique, n’ont été que partiellement mises en oeuvre. De plus, d’après les règles en vigueur, les taux de remplacement effectifs sont assez bas et devraient poursuivre leur repli, pour les ruraux comme pour les citadins, ce qui pourrait entraîner une situation difficilement tenable puisque les plus âgés vivent de moins en moins souvent avec leurs descendants. De surcroît, en raison du vieillissement de la population rurale, une grande partie du surcoût devra être supporté par des collectivités locales dotées de ressources insuffisantes. Il est possible de remédier à ces difficultés en fusionnant progressivement les différents régimes, en relevant l’âge de la retraite et en reportant une plus grande fraction du coût des retraites en milieu rural sur le gouvernement central. Même si différents régimes devaient subsister pour différentes catégories de travailleurs, il faudra les fusionner au fil du temps, tout d’abord à l’échelon provincial, puis sur le plan national, en supprimant peu à peu la distinction entre les villes et les campagnes.
    Keywords: ageing, labour mobility, pension system, replacement ratios, demographic projections, China, poverty, benefit portability, retirement age, vieillissement, taux de remplacement, système de retraite, pauvreté, Chine, projections démographiques, âge du départ en retraite, mobilité de la main d’oeuvre
    JEL: H55 J11 J13 J14 J32 J61 N35 O15 O53 P21 P25 P26 P36
    Date: 2010–02–01
  19. By: Richard Herd; Yu-Wei Hu; Vincent Koen
    Abstract: Overall, health outcomes in China have improved tremendously over the past three decades, especially thanks to the reduction in some traditional infectious diseases. However, death rates from chronic diseases have been on the rise, not least owing to changes in life styles and deteriorating environmental conditions. Supply of health care is overwhelmingly provided publicly and hospitals have been absorbing a growing share of the resources. The number of doctors has increased fast but the level of qualification of incumbent doctors is often modest. Demand for care has risen rapidly, in line with incomes, and the relative price of care soared through the early 2000s. Hospital budgets and their doctors’ pay are partly based on the pharmaceuticals they prescribe and sell, whose prices are regulated and involve considerable cross-subsidisation. Faced with these problems, the government has launched a number of reforms. New insurance schemes have been rolled out both in rural and urban areas. As a result, coverage and use of medical facilities has increased a lot, except for migrants. In practice, however, catastrophic but also chronic illnesses continue to push people into poverty, especially in the poorer regions, given limited risk pooling at the national level. A new set of reforms was announced in 2009, aiming at universal, safe, affordable and effective basic health care by 2020. They involve investment in medical infrastructure, generalising coverage, more focus on prevention, a new essential drugs system and far-reaching reorganisation, including hospital reform. It will be important to make sure that primary care plays a greater role and that hospitals are managed more efficiently with less of a hierarchical structure. Progress will also require changes in the relative prices of treatments and higher doctors’ wages and tobacco prices.<P>Améliorer le système de santé chinois<BR>Dans l’ensemble, les résultats de la Chine en matière de santé se sont considérablement améliorés au cours des trente dernières années, surtout par suite du recul de certaines maladies infectieuses classiques. Toutefois, les taux de mortalité par maladies chroniques sont en progression, en particulier à cause de l’évolution des modes de vie et de la détérioration de l’environnement. L’offre de soins de santé est essentiellement publique et les hôpitaux absorbent une part grandissante des ressources. Le nombre de médecins a vite augmenté, mais leur niveau de formation est souvent peu élevé. La demande de soins s’est rapidement accrue, parallèlement aux revenus, et leur prix relatif s’est envolé jusqu’au début des années 2000. Les budgets des hôpitaux et la rémunération de leurs médecins dépendent en partie des produits pharmaceutiques qu’ils prescrivent et vendent, dont les prix sont réglementés et donnent lieu à un important financement croisé. Face à ces problèmes, les pouvoirs publics ont lancé des réformes. De nouveaux dispositifs d’assurance ont été mis en place dans les zones rurales et urbaines. Par conséquent, la population couverte et l’utilisation des équipements médicaux se sont beaucoup accrues, sauf dans le cas des migrants. Toutefois, dans les faits, les maladies catastrophiques, mais aussi les affections chroniques, continuent de faire tomber dans la pauvreté ceux qu’elles touchent, surtout dans les régions déshéritées, la mutualisation des risques à l’échelle nationale demeurant limitée. En 2009 a été annoncée la mise en oeuvre d’une nouvelle série de réformes dont le but est d’assurer un accès universel à des soins de santé de base à la fois sûrs, d’un coût abordable et efficaces d’ici à 2020. Ces mesures prévoient des investissements dans les infrastructures médicales, la généralisation de la couverture maladie, une intensification des efforts de prévention, l’instauration d’un nouveau dispositif pour les médicaments essentiels et des restructurations d’envergure, dont une réforme des hôpitaux. Il importera de faire en sorte que le rôle des soins primaires soit renforcé et que les hôpitaux soient gérés de façon plus rationnelle dans le cadre d’un système moins hiérarchisé. Il faudra en outre modifier les prix relatifs des traitements et augmenter la rémunération des médecins, ainsi que le prix du tabac.
    Keywords: health, insurance, hospital, pharmaceuticals, China, life expectancy, diseases, doctors, migrants, tobacco, santé, assurance, espérance de vie, Chine, hôpital, maladies, médecins, migrants, tabac, médicaments
    JEL: D19 H41 H51 I18 J61 J71 O15 O53 P21 P36
    Date: 2010–02–01
  20. By: Bordo, Michael D. (Rutgers University and NBER); Meissner, Christopher M. (University of California, Davis and NBER); Stuckler, David (Christ Church College, University of Oxford)
    Abstract: Foreign currency debt is widely believed to increase risks of financial crisis, especially after being implicated as a cause of the East Asian crisis in the late 1990s. In this paper, we study the effects of foreign currency debt on currency and debt crises and its indirect effects on short-term growth and long-run output effects in both 1880-1913 and 1973-2003 for 45 countries. Greater ratios of foreign currency debt to total debt is associated with increased risks of currency and debt crises, although the strength of the association depends crucially on the size of a country's reserve base and its policy credibility. We found that financial crises, driven by exposure to foreign currency, resulted in significant permanent output losses. We estimate some implications of our findings for the risks posed by currently high levels of foreign currency liabilities in eastern Europe.
    JEL: F34 F36 F43 N10
    Date: 2009–10
  21. By: Gachassin, Marie; Najman, Boris; Raballand, Gael
    Abstract: Many investments in infrastructure are built on the belief that they will ineluctably lead to poverty reduction and income generation. This has entailed massive aid-financed projects in roads in developing countries. However, the lack of robust evaluations and a comprehensive theoretical framework could raise questions about current strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using the second Cameroonian national household survey (Enquete Camerounaise Aupres des Menages II, 2001) and the Cameroon case study, this paper demonstrates that investing uniformly in tarred roads in Africa is likely to have a much lower impact on poverty than expected. Isolation from a tarred road is found to have no direct impact on consumption expenditures in Cameroon. The only impact is an indirect one in the access to labor activities. This paper reasserts the fact that access to roads is only one factor contributing to poverty reduction (and not necessarily the most important in many cases). Considering that increase in non-farming activities is the main driver for poverty reduction in rural Africa, the results contribute to the idea that emphasis on road investments should be given to locations where non-farming activities could be developed, which does mean that the last mile in rural areas probably should not be a road.
    Keywords: Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Rural Poverty Reduction,Regional Economic Development,Achieving Shared Growth
    Date: 2010–02–01
  22. By: Ivaschenko, Oleksiy; Lanjouw, Peter
    Abstract: Sub-national estimates of HIV prevalence can inform the design of policy responses to the HIV epidemic. Such responses also benefit from a better understanding of the correlates of HIV status, including the association between HIV and geographical characteristics of localities. In recent years, several countries in Africa have implemented household surveys (such as Demographic and Health Surveys) that include HIV testing of the adult population, providing estimates of HIV prevalence rates at the sub-national level. These surveys are known to suffer from non-response bias, but are nonetheless thought to represent a marked improvement over alternatives such as sentinel surveys. At present, however, most countries are not in a position to regularly field such household surveys. This paper proposes a new approach to the estimation of HIV prevalence for relatively small geographic areas in settings where national population-based surveys of prevalence are not available. The proposed approach aims to overcome some of the difficulties with prevailing methods of deriving HIV prevalence estimates (at both national and sub-national levels) directly from sentinel surveys. The paper also outlines some of the limitations of the proposed approach.
    Keywords: Population Policies,Disease Control&Prevention,HIV AIDS,Gender and Health,Scientific Research&Science Parks
    Date: 2010–02–01
  23. By: Simrit Kaur; Vani S. Kulkarni; Raghav Gaiha; Manoj K. Pandey
    Abstract: Employment elasticity with respect to agriculture value added in South Asia has weakened in recent years. While crop diversification has grown and value added per hectare also grew, employment growth was sluggish. However, the linkages between farm and non-farm employment remain strong. Drawing upon the 50th and 61st rounds of the National Sample Surveys (NSS) for India in 1993 and 2004, we first review the changes in participation rates in farm and non-farm activities by gender, age, education and caste affiliations. This is followed by an econometric analysis of contribution of farm and non-farm employment towards welfare in terms of per capita expenditure. The focus is on household characteristics (size, composition, education, land holding), and community characteristics (access to roads, power and financial services). Using a measure of normalised rainfall, we assess how rainfall shocks influence welfare in farm and non-farm activities. The fact that welfare of selfemployed in non-farm activities became more sensitive to rainfall shocks in 2004, relative to 1993, suggests stronger linkages between farm and non-farm activities. Also, the welfare of self-employed in agriculture became more sensitive to rainfall shocks in 2004, presumably due to expansion of agriculture into arid and semi-arid areas. Finally, and not so surprising is the greater sensitiveness of welfare of agricultural labour households to rainfall shocks. So while education and better infrastructure will help enhance welfare in farm and non-farm activities, the policy concern for resilience against rainfall shocks is reinforced.
    Keywords: Rainfall Shocks, Agriculture, Non-Agriculture, Employment, Income, Consumption, Infrastructure, Education, South Asia, India
    JEL: H53 I32 Q15 R23
    Date: 2010
  24. By: Huillery, Elise (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: Cette publication n'a pas de résumé
    JEL: N37 O11 P16
    Date: 2009–04
  25. By: Alassane DRABO; Christian EBEKE
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the respective impacts of remittances, health aid and public spending on the access to health care services in developing countries. The specific objectives are threefold. Firstly, we quantify the differential impacts of remittances on the access to public and private health care services. Secondly, we determine whether remittances and foreign health aid are complements or substitutes in the access to health care services. Lastly, we evaluate the heterogeneity of the impact of remittances in the access to public and private health care services by quintile of income. We provide a rigorous econometric analysis by controlling for the endogeneity of remittances, public spending and foreign aid. We find that remittances, health aid and public spending are important determinants of access to health services in recipients' countries. Another interesting result comes from the fact that, remittances lead to a sectorial glide in the uses of health care services from the public to the private sector for the intermediate income class. This result holds also for the richer quintiles that are the major recipients of remittances in developing countries. Moreover, remittances and foreign health aid are complements for the access to health care services in "low" income countries. Finally, these results suggest that policies aiming at increasing remittances are appropriate for developing countries but also that, the "optimal" therapy for the "low" income countries is the combination of remittances and foreign aid.
    Keywords: Remittances, access to health care services, developing countries, health aid, instrumental variables method, public spending
    Date: 2010
  26. By: Enowbi Batuo, Michael; Kupukile, Mlambo
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to study the interactions between economic liberalisation, political liberalisation and financial development in African countries. More specifically, we seek to establish the impact of economic, political and institutional openness on financial deepening. The empirical approach will be two-step procedure, first using a difference in difference method to show the various aspect of financial liberalisation on economic and political freedom while the second step will be using panel data techniques from period 1990 to 2005. The estimation results can be summarised as the following, first, Economic and financial liberalisation did account significantly for the financial development performance. While political stability show a positive overall effect on financial development, the association with Political freedom is consistent only after controlling the endogeneity of Political freedom on financial development. This result indicates that the transformation of the political and economic environment has improved the performance of the financial sector.
    Keywords: Political Liberalisation; Economic Liberalisation; Financial Development and Africa
    JEL: O55 G2 O17 C23 O16 C21
    Date: 2009–10
  27. By: Aragon, Fernando (London School of Economics and Political Science); Rud, Juan (University of London)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of Yanacocha, a large gold mine in Peru, on the local population. Using annual household data from 1997 to 2006, we nd robust evidence of a positive effect of the mine's demand of local inputs on real income. The effect, an average income increase of 1.7% per 10% additional mine's purchases, is only present in the mine's supply market and surrounding areas. We also nd evidence of improvements on measures of welfare and reduction of poverty. We examine and rule out that our results are driven by increased public expenditure associated to the mining revenue windfall. Using a spatial general equilibrium model, we interpret these results as evidence of net welfare gains generated by the mine's backward linkages and its multiplier effect.
    Keywords: Natural resources, mining, local development
    JEL: O13 O18 Q32 Q33 R20
    Date: 2009–12

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