|
on Development |
| By: | Thanh Le (MRG - School of Economics, The University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | In global context, as human capital embodies technology, international student flows may play an important role as a channel of R&D spillovers from developed countries to less developed ones. Empirical study on a data set of 76 developing countries during 1998-2005 lends strong support to this hypothesis. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uqmrg6:33&r=dev |
| By: | Jean-Yves Duclos (Département d’économique and CIRPÉE, Université Laval, Canada); Paul Makdissi (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa); Abdelkrim Araar (Département d’économique and CIRPÉE, Université Laval, Canada) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new methodology to test for whether indirect tax reforms are pro-poor. The methodology extends stochastic dominance techniques and enables identifying tax reforms that will necessarily be deemed absolutely or relatively pro-poor by a wide spectrum of poverty analysts. The statistical properties of the various estimators are also derived in order to make the method implementable using survey data. The methodology is used to assess the pro-poorness of possible reforms to Mexico’s indirect tax system. This leads to the identification of several possible pro-poor tax reforms in that country. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic dominance, pro-poor changes, tax reforms, indirect taxation, poverty, Mexico |
| JEL: | D12 D63 H21 I32 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:0907e&r=dev |
| By: | José Antonio Alonso (Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Departamento de Economía Aplicada II (Estructura Económica y Economía Industrial)) |
| Abstract: | This article analyses current attempts to identify the factors underlying long-term economic growth. The author criticises some the arguments and historical proofs in which are based the two main explanations which dominate recent literature: the institutional approach and those which focus on the importance of geographical factors. Using an approach which is deliberately eclectic, the author considers the role of geography, international trade, human capital and institutional quality in explaining development. A new estimation is carried out through TLSL with instrumental variables. The results of the empirical model confirm the central role of institutions in long-term economic growth. However, certain geographical conditions also seem to have influenced countries´ possibilities of progress. Human capital and trade openness are less robust in explaining economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Development, long-term growth, institutional quality, geographical factors, human capital, trade openness. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:wpaper:13-09&r=dev |
| By: | Angus C. Chu; Shin-Kun Peng (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | What are the effects of increasing developing countries’ intellectual property rights protection on growth, welfare and income inequality in the global economy? To analyze this question, we develop a two-country R&D-growth model with wealth heterogeneity. We find that the North experiences higher growth and welfare at the expense of higher income inequality while the South experiences higher growth at the expense of lower welfare and higher income inequality. As for global welfare, there exists a critical degree for the domestic importance of foreign goods below (above) which global welfare decreases (increases). In light of these findings, we discuss policy implications on China’s accession to the WTO in 2001. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of China’s rising innovative capability on domestic and foreign income inequality. |
| Keywords: | endogenous growth, heterogeneity, income inequality, patent policy, TRIPS |
| JEL: | O34 O41 D31 F13 |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sin:wpaper:09-a006&r=dev |
| By: | James Fearon; Macartan Humphreys; Jeremy Weinstein |
| Abstract: | Can brief, foreign-funded efforts to build local institutions have positive effects on local patterns of governance, cooperation, and well-being? Prior research suggests that such small-scale, externally driven interventions are unlikely to substantially alter patterns of social interaction in a community, and that the ability of a community to act collectively is the result of a slow and necessarily indigenous process. We address this question using a randomized field experiment to assess the effects of a community-driven reconstruction (CDR) project carried out by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) in northern Liberia. The project attempted to build democratic, community-level institutions for making and implementing decisions about local public goods. We find powerful evidence that the program was successful in increasing social cohesion, some evidence that it reinforced democratic political attitudes and increased confidence in local decision-making procedures, but only weak evidence that material well-being was positively affected. There is essentially no evidence of adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | Liberia; reconstruction; post-conflict; institution building; democracy; development; peacebuilding |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:194&r=dev |
| By: | Simon Johnson; William Larson; Chris Papageorgiou; Arvind Subramanian |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies; that this variability is systematic; and that it is intrinsic to the methodology deployed by the PWT to estimate growth rates. Moreover, this variability matters for the cross-country growth literature. While growth studies that use low-frequency data remain robust to data revisions, studies that use annual data are less robust. Second, the PWT methodology leads to GDP estimates that are not valued at purchasing power parity (PPP) prices. This is surprising because the raison d’être of the PWT is to adjust national estimates of GDP by valuing output at common international (PPP) prices so that the resulting PPP-adjusted estimates of GDP are comparable across countries. We propose an approach to address these two problems of variability and valuation. |
| Keywords: | purchasing power parity; penn world table; methodology; growth; gdp estimates; cross-county data |
| JEL: | O11 O40 O47 |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:191&r=dev |
| By: | Benjamin Leo |
| Abstract: | Four years ago, the G-7 pushed through an unprecedented initiative forcing the international financial institutions to cancel 100 percent of their outstanding debt claims on the world’s poorest countries. Through the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), these heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) stand to receive up to $60 billion in debt relief over time. Moreover, the World Bank, African Development Bank, and IMF shareholders approved a new debt sustainability framework to govern future lending decisions and prevent the need for yet another round of systemic debt relief. All parties emerged from these landmark agreements confident that the dragon of unsustainable debt finally had been slain. However, several unsettling trends raise serious questions about the finality of these actions. First, World Bank and AfDB lending disbursement volumes to these very same HIPC countries remain very high, and nearly the same as compared to pre-MDRI. Emergency IMF lending in response to the global economic crisis has compounded the situation. Second, IMF and World Bank growth projections for HIPCs remain overly rosy compared to actual and historical performance. Our new dataset of IMF growth projections suggests a structural optimism of at least one percentage point per year. Third, HIPCs continue to experience significant volatility in country performance measures that has a direct impact on their ability to carry debt sustainably. Taken together, these findings suggest that donor countries should re-examine the issue of debt sustainability in low-income countries and the system for determining the appropriate grant/loan mix. The upcoming IDA and AfDF replenishment negotiations present a timely opportunity to do so. Absent assertive and corrective action, the international community may be faced with the prospect of a HIPC IV agreement in the not too distant future. |
| Keywords: | lending; hipc; debt relief; cgd; center for global development |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:193&r=dev |
| By: | Benjamin Leo; Todd Moss |
| Abstract: | Zimbabwe is embarking on a long, complex, and difficult journey to rebuild its economy, which has been shattered by years of neglect and destructive government policies. If the final political hurdles are overcome? hopefully sooner rather than later—the new coalition government will be faced with making politically difficult decisions and addressing conclusively the economic ghosts of the past. One of those ghosts is more than $5 billion owed to external creditors, of which nearly 80 percent is arrears. Clearing Zimbabwe’s external debt arrears and securing comprehensive debt relief will be a critical step in eventual recovery. By doing so, the government will remove a crippling burden on its budget, investment climate, and overall macroeconomic environment. More important to the success of the coalition government, it will unlock hundreds of millions of dollars in new external assistance for critical reconstruction programs that will improve the Zimbabwean people’s quality of life. This paper provides a detailed overview of the arrears clearance and debt relief processes. The purpose is to spark a debate in creditor capitals and hopefully to buttress the government’s analytical foundation. With a strong dedicated team of experts—and support from relevant donor agencies— the Zimbabwean government will one day conclusively address its crushing debt burden and proceed with the rebuilding of a once vibrant and proud nation. |
| Keywords: | zimbabwe; reconstruction; external debt; economic development; debt relief |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:190&r=dev |
| By: | Martin Ravallion (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | The government of a rich country will be disinclined to give its aid to a country that has internal capacity to tackle poverty through redistribution from people at a similar standard of living to taxpayers in that rich country. Yet we do not have tools for measuring the capacity for redistribution that reflect this property. Indeed, past measures imply heavy tax burdens on people who would be considered poor in rich countries. |
| Keywords: | Do Poorer Countries Have Less Capacity for Redistribution? |
| Date: | 2009–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:97&r=dev |
| By: | Przemyslaw Kowalski; Ralph Lattimore; Novella Bottini |
| Abstract: | This paper examines key trade and trade related issues facing South Africa. It describes South Africa‘s re-entry into the global trade architecture and its economic growth in the context of its trade performance, as well as the composition and performance of South African exports at the product and sector level in the period from the early 1990s to 2006. The study also assesses South Africa‘s comparative trade performance based on a gravity model of international trade and discusses some key historical and recent trade policy developments. Finally, the study provides an econometric assessment of the impact of South Africa‘s trade liberalisation during the period from 1988 to 2003 on labour and total factor productivity across its industrial sectors. It shows that while South African trade performance has been good in recent years there is significant room to liberalise further as an adjunct to labour market reforms. Further trade policy liberalisation would bring about important equity and efficiency gains. Multilateral trade liberalisation has the potential to maximise the gains and ease the transition to freer trade for South Africa but unilateral liberalisation also deserves consideration. |
| Keywords: | dynamic gains from trade, gravity model, productivity, regional integration, revealed comparative advantage, South Africa, tariffs, trade network, trade performance, trade |
| Date: | 2009–09–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:91-en&r=dev |
| By: | Yu Zhu; Zhongmin Wu; Meiyan Wang; Yang Du; Fang Cai |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of remittances on the savings behaviour of rural households in China, using a cross-sectional survey. Allowing for endogeneity and left-censoring of remittances, we find that the marginal propensity to save out of remittances is well below half of that out of other sources of incomes. Moreover, we find no evidence of any direct effect of remittances on either capital input or gross output of farm production. These findings are in line with recent studies which conclude that remittances are largely used for consumption purposes by rural Chinese households and there is no link between migration and productive investment. |
| Keywords: | Growth and cycles; recessions; technical efficiency; technical progress. |
| JEL: | D12 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0923&r=dev |
| By: | Andrabi, Tahir; Das, Jishnu; Khwaja, Asim Ijaz |
| Abstract: | Female education levels are very low in many developing countries. Does maternal education have a causal impact on children's educational outcomes even at these very low levels of education? By combining a nationwide census of schools in Pakistan with household data, the authors use the availability of girls'schools in the mother's birth village as an instrument for maternal schooling to address this issue. Since public schools in Pakistan are segregated by gender, the instrument affects only maternal education rather than the education levels of both mothers and fathers. The analysis finds that children of mothers with some education spend 75 minutes more on educational activities at home compared with children whose mothers report no education at all. Mothers with some education also spend more time helping their children with school work; the effect is stronger (an extra 40 minutes per day) in families where the mother is likely the primary care-giver. Finally, test scores for children whose mothers have some education are higher in English, Urdu (the vernacular), and mathematics by 0.24-0.35 standard deviations. There is no relationship between maternal education and mother’s time spent on paid work or housework - a posited channel through which education affects bargaining power within the household. And there is no relationship between maternal education and the mother's role in educational decisions or in the provision of other child-specific goods, such as expenditures on pocket money, uniforms, and tuition. The data therefore suggest that at these very low levels of education, maternal education does not substantially affect a mother's bargaining power within the household. Instead, maternal education could directly increase the mother's productivity or affect her preferences toward children’s education in a context where her bargaining power is low. |
| Keywords: | Education For All,Primary Education,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Early Childhood Development,Youth and Governance |
| Date: | 2009–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5143&r=dev |
| By: | Kose, M. Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar S.; Taylor, Ashley D. |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain"threshold"levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. This paper develops a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. The analysis finds that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality -- the cost-benefit trade-off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. The findings also show that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared with those for debt liabilities. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Emerging Markets,Achieving Shared Growth |
| Date: | 2009–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5149&r=dev |
| By: | Cavalcanti, Carlos |
| Abstract: | Public sector pay policy is one of the main decisions facing a government, as it determines the ability to attract, retain, and motivate staff needed to fulfill its service delivery objectives. One option usually considered is relying on a single pay spine for all services into which jobs would be slotted, thus ensuring greater comparability of similar jobs across the public sector. This paper examines the single spine pay reform currently being considered in Ghana, highlighting the differences between the Ghanaian proposal and similarly named proposals elsewhere, and underscoring the potential cost of implementing the proposal -- which is expected to be significant. There are three main findings: (i) the implementation of the single spine pay reform would raise the base pay wage bill (salaries plus category one allowances) in Ghana to GHC2.8 billion by January 1, 2010 -- an almost 50 percent increase compared with an equivalent figures of GHC1.9 billion at end-2008; (ii) because these estimates focus narrowly on the base pay wage bill, they should be regarded as a lower bound estimate of the overall increase in the wage bill; and (iii) because these estimates are derived from assumptions regarding (1) the distribution of public sector employees across public sector services and institutions; (2) the minimum public sector wage; and the (3) the relativity of all other public sector wages with respect to this minimum wage, they are subject to changes any time these assumptions also change. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Economics,Public Sector Management and Reform,Labor Markets,Economic Stabilization,Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations and Local Finance Management |
| Date: | 2009–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5150&r=dev |
| By: | Das Gupta, Monica |
| Abstract: | Son preference is known to be found in certain types of cultures, that is patrilineal cultures. But what explains the fact that China, South Korea, and Northwest India manifest such extreme child sex ratios compared with other patrilineal societies? This paper argues that what makes these societies unique is that their pre-modern political and administrative systems used patrilineages to organize and administer their citizens. The interplay of culture, state, and political processes generated uniquely rigid patriliny and son preference. The paper also argues that the advent of the modern state in these settings has unraveled the underpinnings of the rigid patrilineal rules, and unleashed a variety of forces that reduce son preference. Firstly, the modern state has powerful tools for incorporating and managing its citizenry, rendering patrilineages a threat rather than an asset for the state. Secondly, the modern state has brought in political, social, and legal reforms aimed to challenge traditional social hierarchies, including the age and gender hierarchies of the kinship system. Thirdly, industrialization and urbanization have ushered in new modes of social organization, which reduce the hold of clans and lineages. Studies of the impact of the media suggest that states can accelerate the resultant decline in son preference, through media efforts to help parents perceive that daughters can now be as valuable as sons. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Gender and Law,Anthropology,Population&Development,Gender and Development |
| Date: | 2009–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5148&r=dev |
| By: | Dailami, Mansoor; Masson, Paul |
| Abstract: | Backed by rapid economic growth, growing financial clout, and a newfound sense of assertiveness in recent years, the BRIC countries - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - are a driving force behind an incipient transformation of the world economy away from a US-dominated system toward a multipolar one in which developing countries will have a major say. It is, however, in the international monetary arena that the notion of multipolarity - more than two dominant poles - commands renewed attention and vigorous debate. For much of its history, the quintessential structural feature of the international monetary system has been unipolarity - as American hegemony of initiatives and power as well as its capacity to promote a market-based, liberal order came to define and shape international monetary relations. As other currencies become potential substitutes for the US dollar in international reserves and in cross-border claims, exchange rate volatility may become more severe. There are also risks that the rivalry among the three economic blocs may spill over into something more if not kept in check by a strong global governance structure. While the transition will be difficult and drawn out, governments should take immediate steps to prevent financial volatility by enhancing cooperation on monetary policies, currency market intervention and financial regulation. |
| Keywords: | Currencies and Exchange Rates,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2009–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5147&r=dev |
| By: | Arena, Marco; Revilla, Julio E. |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature on budget cyclicality has generally focused more on assessing the degree of pro-cyclicality in federal (central government) revenues and expenditures and less on budget cyclicality at the sub-national level in multi-tiered systems. This paper attempts to contribute to the literature on budget cyclicality by examining how sub-national fiscal revenues and expenditures are linked to the business cycle in Brazil, particularly after the introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility Law. It explains the degree of pro-cyclicality across Brazilian states, and assesses whether intergovernmental transfers help to stabilize states’ finances. These issues are addressed using both a time-series and a cross-section dimension at the Brazilian state level for the period 1991-2006. The empirical evidence suggests the existence of a pro-cyclical fiscal policy in Brazil at the state level. However, the introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility Law helped to reduce Brazilian states’ spending-side pro-cyclicality. For the Brazilian states, the main source of the observed pro-cyclicality is found in the behavior of tax revenues directly collected by the state governments. Intergovernmental transfers (federal transfers to the states) are not associated with changes in gross state product, but they are pro-cyclically aligned with national gross domestic product, which could amplify the pro-cyclical behavior of sub-national expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Subnational Economic Development,Debt Markets,Access to Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Fiscal Adjustment |
| Date: | 2009–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5144&r=dev |
| By: | Comin, Diego; Loayza, Norman; Pasha, Farooq; Serven, Luis |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself, and hence why Mexico shows higher volatility than the United States; why business cycles in the United States lead to medium-term fluctuations in Mexico; and why consumption is not less volatile than output in Mexico. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Political Economy,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Markets and Market Access |
| Date: | 2009–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5146&r=dev |
| By: | Shanaka Herath |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwsre:sre-disc-2009_08&r=dev |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala; Tran Quang Tien |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the process of industrial transition in Vietnam in the context of market-oriented reforms undertaken over the past two decades. The findings are consistent with the conventional wisdom that concomitant liberalization of trade and investment regimes, accompanied by creating a congenial environment for market-based decisions by the private agents, is vital for reaping developmental gains form FDI. During the 1990s growth of employment in foreign invested enterprises (FIEs) lagged behind output growth, reflecting the capitalintensity bias of production in a partially-liberalized economy. This pattern has changed notably in recent years as the reform process gained momentum. Of particular significance in this connection is the growing importance of assembly activities by FIEs in electronics and other high-tech industries. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, Asia, foreign direct investment, transitional economy, multinational enterprises |
| JEL: | F23 O53 P23 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2009-20&r=dev |
| By: | Budy P Resosudarmo; Arief A Yusuf; Djoni Hartono; Ditya A Nurdianto |
| Abstract: | Ten years after the implementation of a major decentralization policy, issues of inter-regional disparities in income and rates of natural resource extraction still figure prominently in Indonesian economic policy debate. There is great interest in identifying the macro policies that would reduce regional income disparity and better control the rate of natural extraction, while maintaining reasonable national economic growth. In this paper we develop an inter-regional computable general equilibrium model (IRSA-INDONESIA5) as an appropriate tools for analysis these issues and employ it to examine economy-wide impacts of various policies under consideration. |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium, Development Planning and Policy, Environmental Economics. |
| JEL: | C68 O20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2009-21&r=dev |
| By: | Peter Warr; Arief Anshory Yusuf |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that recent increases in international food prices worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, even though many poor farmers benefited. This conclusion is based on the application of a multi-sectoral, multihousehold general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The positive effect on the welfare of poor farmers was exceeded by the negative effect on poor consumers. Indonesia’s ban on rice imports since 2004 complicates this account. The import ban shielded Indonesia’s internal rice market from the temporary world price increases from 2007 to 2008, but did so at the expense of permanently increasing both rice prices and poverty incidence. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia; food prices; poverty incidence; general equilibrium modeling |
| JEL: | D58 I32 F14 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2009-19&r=dev |
| By: | Martine Mariotti; Juergen Meinecke |
| Abstract: | Our objective is to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) of education on earnings for African men in South Africa. Estimation of the ATE in our data is difficult because of omitted ability bias and a high degree of sample selection due to low labor force participation. Manski and Pepper (2000) suggest is a promising nonparametric identification strategy but it only helps with the problem of omitted ability bias. We propose an extension of their identification strategy to deal with the sample selection problem. Accounting for ability and selection bias, we compute upper bounds on the ATE for the years 1995 and 2000. We estimate an upper bound of 12.64 percent in 1995 and 10.68 percent in 2000. Compared to parametric estimation our bounds are informative: The OLS returns to schooling equal 15.59 percent in 1995 and 15.31 percent in 2000. Our results suggest that many parametric estimates are severely upwards biased, which results from unobserved heterogeneity. |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2009-510&r=dev |
| By: | Mark Sanders; Utz Weitzel |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurship is generally regarded as a force of change, innovation and development in modern economies. Entrepreneurs bring new and better products to markets, restore allocative efficiency through arbitrage and reinvest their profits. However, as Baumol (1990), Mehlum et al. (2003) and Acemoglu (1995) have argued, the same energy and talent can also be allocated to unproductive ends and reduce total welfare. In this paper we present a model that analyzes the allocation of a given entrepreneurial talent over destructive and productive activities. We show that in this model two stable equilibria can emerge. As Baumol (1990) hypothesized, institutions determine the pay-offs to both types of entrepreneurial activity and hence drive this allocation. But we also show that the distribution of initial wealth and entrepreneurial talent plays a decisive role. This analysis provides a different perspective on the importance of high quality institutions in developing countries and sheds light on the situation in conflict and post-conflict countries, where both informal and formal institutions arguably have broken down. Under such circumstances, our analysis shows that micro credits can support the transition to a productive equilibrium, because they help to overcome credit contraints without creating incentives for destructive entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | growth, development, entrepreneurship, innovation, occupational choice |
| JEL: | O1 L26 P00 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:0936&r=dev |
| By: | Dorothée Boccanfuso (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Luc Savard (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Bernice E. Savy (GREDI, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | Economic theory long acknowledged a positive relation between human capital and economic growth (Smith, 1776; Becker, 1964), which was nevertheless called into question in the late 1990s (Caselli et al. 1996; Pritchett, 2001). The two primary criticisms evoked were the failure to consider diminishing returns to education and qualitative aspects of the stock of human capital. This work aims to redress inadequacies in the literature related to the usual proxy of human capital by advancing a composite indicator of human capital (PCA). This indicator allows for an integration of the qualitative aspects in question and uses the indicator of the stock of human capital (Mincer, 1974) to take diminishing returns into consideration. Adopting the methodology developed by Islam (1995) allows for the impact of human capital to become positive once again in the process of economic growth. The data also reveal a conditional convergence process for the 22 African countries considered over the period 1970 to 2000. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, human capital, convergence, Africa |
| JEL: | O18 O47 O55 |
| Date: | 2009–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:09-24&r=dev |
| By: | Martin Paldam; Erich Gundlach |
| Abstract: | We use factor analysis to derive a robust measure of religiosity from items reported in five waves of the World Value Survey. Our measure of religiosity is negatively correlated with per capita income. Development apparently causes religiosity to fall to about half its pre-modern level. Most components of the demand for religion are reduced by development. The supply of religion declines once churches lose control over the institutions providing collective goods like education, health, and social security. These goods used to be supplied by churches jointly with religious services but tend to be supplied by the state with rising levels of development. Aspects of supply and demand are integrated in a CES production function framework that can explain the direction of causality in the observed negative correlation between income and religiosity |
| Keywords: | Levels of development, religiosity, biogeography |
| JEL: | O11 Z12 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1576&r=dev |
| By: | Gonzalez, German Hector; Dabus, Carlos Dario; Monterubbianesi, Pablo Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the convergence process in Latin America and the Caribbean during the 1960-2005 period. The evidence is not favorable to clear convergence or divergence trends, but to a slight process of convergence until the 1970s, and then global divergence. In turn, the results suggest the existence of transitory clubs of convergence during the 1960-1974 and 1990-1994 periods. After that, the lower income economies showed convergence to the relative richer countries, but in a context of increasing dispersion of the per capita income. The development accounting and the decomposition of the total factor productivity (TFP) indicate that those results are mainly explained by relative differences in the technological capabilities, and that the existence of structural differences is a key factor to explain the nonconvergence in technological capabilities. The efforts to integrate the economies were not enough to reduce the gap but the divergence in technological capabilities would have been worst without the integration process. |
| Keywords: | Convergence; Total Factor Productivity Decomposition; Technological Capabilities; Economic Integration; Latin American and the Caribbean |
| JEL: | F15 O47 O54 |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19211&r=dev |
| By: | Letouzé, Emmanuel; Purser, Mark; Rodríguez, Francisco; Cummins, Matthew |
| Abstract: | This paper presents empirical estimates of a gravity model of bilateral migration that properly accounts for non-linearities and tackles causality issues through an instrumental variables approach. In contrast to the existing literature, which is limited to OECD data, we have estimated our model using a matrix of bilateral migration stocks for 127 countries. We find that the inverted-U relationship between income at origin and migration found by other authors survives the more demanding bilateral specification but does not survive both instrumentation and introduction of controls for the geographical and cultural proximity between country pairs. We also evaluate the effect of migration on origin and destination country income using the geographically determined component of migration as a source of exogenous variation and fail to find a significant effect of migration on origin or destination income. |
| Keywords: | Gravity models; international migration; economic growth |
| JEL: | F22 F16 O15 O57 O19 |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19227&r=dev |
| By: | Bell, Martin; Muhidin, Salut |
| Abstract: | Internal migration is the most significant process driving changes in the pattern of human settlement across much of the world, yet remarkably few attempts have been made to compare internal migration between countries. Differences in data collection, in geography and in measurement intervals seriously hinder rigorous cross-national comparisons. We supplement data from the University of Minnesota IPUMS collection to make comparisons between 28 countries using both five year and lifetime measures of migration, and focusing particularly on migration intensity and spatial impacts. We demonstrate that Courgeau's k (Courgeau 1973) provides a powerful mechanism to transcend differences in statistical geography. Our results reveal widespread differences in the intensity of migration, and in the ages at which it occurs, with Asia generally displaying low mobility and sharp, early peaks, whereas Latin America and the Developed Countries show higher mobility and flatter age profiles usually peaking at older ages. High mobility is commonly offset by corresponding counter-flows but redistribution through internal migration is substantial in some countries, especially when computed as a lifetime measure. Time series comparisons show five year migration intensities falling in most countries (China being a notable exception), although lifetime data show more widespread rises due to age structure effects. Globally, we estimate that 740 million people, one in eight, were living within their home country but outside their region of birth, substantially above the commonly cited figure of 200 million international migrants. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration; comparative analysis; migration intensity; redistribution; age; geography; lifetime; IPUMS |
| JEL: | O15 C8 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19213&r=dev |
| By: | Enowbi Batuo, Michael; Fabro, Gema |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence about the determinants of per capita income in African countries, with particular attention to the affects of governance institutional quality and sub regional integration on income level. We use a sample of 49 countries from the period 1996-2004 and the Generalized Method of Moments Estimation model for dynamic panel, proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991). The results show that African regional groups with better institutions, higher degrees of regional integration cooperation, higher rates of investment in human capital and lower rates of population growth, show a higher level of per capita income |
| Keywords: | Sub-Regional Integration; Institutional Quality; Economic development |
| JEL: | O55 O43 C33 O12 |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19069&r=dev |
| By: | Pfau, Wade Donald; Giang, Thanh Long |
| Abstract: | During a time of rapid economic transformation in Vietnam, we examine two possibilities for elderly support: living together with children and receiving remittances. Our analysis uses four household surveys conducted in Vietnam between 1992 and 2004. With the highly detailed 1997/98 survey, we find that 73.1 percent of Vietnamese elderly are living with children and 34.8 percent were either receiving remittances directly or married to a recipient. From our logistic regression analysis, we can further determine that living with children and remittances both serve continuing roles for elderly support, and our findings suggest that expanding the pension system in Vietnam can potentially play an important role in reducing elderly poverty without crowding out these other support mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Elderly; Vietnam; Welfare; Remittances |
| JEL: | F24 |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19121&r=dev |
| By: | Kinda, Tidiane |
| Abstract: | Using a one-step stochastic frontier model for five developing countries (Brazil, Morocco, Pakistan, South Africa, and Vietnam), we show that foreign firms benefit from a better investment climate, which significantly explains why they are more efficient than local firms. Unlike former studies, this paper uses the share of each firm’s sales to multinationals located in the country to assess the importance of vertical spillovers, and it controls for the direct impact of the investment climate on efficiency. The results show that firms (particularly small local firms) that sell more of their production to multinationals are more efficient. |
| Keywords: | Foreign ownership; firm-level efficiency; vertical spillovers; investment climate; developing countries |
| JEL: | F23 F21 D24 O14 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19160&r=dev |
| By: | van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Roland-Holst, David |
| Abstract: | Global labor markets have evolved dramatically in the last several decades and will continue to so for some time to come, driven by changing population demographics, economic globalization, dramatic changes in transportation technology, and accelerating institutional change. All these characteristics of migration make it an essential policy issue for the human development agenda. The United Nations Human Development Report for 2009 intends to provide a forward-looking assessment of global labor market dynamics, with particular reference to the effects of increased labor mobility on global patterns of employment and output. To date, the most rigorous analysis of this subject is the World Bank Global Prospect Group’s forecasts with their Global Economic Prospects Linkage model. This report describes how an update of the GEP model captures more detailed information on global labor movements and heterogeneity, and reports new projections on global migration patterns. These results suggest complex market interactions between migrants and resident workers, whether native or migrant, and between labor and other factors of production. For example reducing migration raises the premium on migrant labor in the destination countries, while lowering the relative return to capital. The first effect makes for higher real income, consumption, and remittances for migrants of both types. For native populations in high income countries, the negative capital income effect dominates the wage effect of reduced competition from migrants. It is perhaps ironic that reducing labor competition is more beneficial to migrants, who lack the capital income and thereby gain absolutely from rising relative wages. Of course one of the primary demand drivers for migrants is the desire to profit from using capital resources more fully within high income economies. In OECD economies, pension schemes guarantee that a significant part of these profits accrue indirectly to native workers. Taken together, these results strongly support the argument that migration has beneficial growth effects on global real economic activity, improving the efficiency of international resource allocation for the benefit of both sending and receiving countries. However, these reassuring aggregate results mask more complex interactions in domestic labor markets, and there will inevitably be both winners and losers from the ensuing structural adjustments. Having said this, the existence of substantial aggregate gains, particularly new fiscal resources for the public sector, suggests the prospect of adjustment assistance to offset adverse impacts. |
| Keywords: | Migration; globalization; North-South |
| JEL: | F16 O15 J01 |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19233&r=dev |
| By: | Masood, Tariq; Ahmad, Mohd. Izhar |
| Abstract: | Abstract The study attempts to investigate the factors responsible for the inter-state variations in women’s labour force participation in India by using the NSSO 61st round (2004-05) data. Two separate regression models for rural and urban women between women’s labor force participation as dependent variable and its various possible determinants have been estimated to identify the factors determining the rural and urban women’s labour force participation by using cross sectional data of all states and union territories of India. Our findings suggest that Personal variables education and wages are significant determinants of urban women’s labour force participation but not of rural women’s labour force participation. Other important determinants of women’s labour force participation are sex ratio, Muslim population, SC and ST population and Unemployment rate. |
| Keywords: | Women’s Labour Force Participation, Interstate Variations, India |
| JEL: | J21 J71 C21 |
| Date: | 2009–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19297&r=dev |
| By: | Rao, B. Bhaskara; Singh, Rup |
| Abstract: | This paper uses an extension to the Solow growth model to estimate the level and growth effects of human capital. Empirical results for a panel of 10 Asian countries from 1960-2003 show that both the growth and level effects of human capital are positive and significant. |
| Keywords: | Level and growth effects of human capital; extension to the Solow growth model. |
| JEL: | O47 |
| Date: | 2009–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19082&r=dev |
| By: | Bakewell, Oliver |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the relationship between migration between developing countries – or countries of the global ‘South’ – and processes of human development. The paper offers a critical analysis of the concept of South-South migration and draws attention to four fundamental problems. The paper then gives a broad overview of the changing patterns of migration in developing regions, with a particular focus on mobility within the African continent. It outlines some of the economic, social and political drivers of migration within poor regions, noting that these are also drivers of migration in the rest of the world. It also highlights the role of the state in influencing people’s movements and the outcomes of migration. The paper highlights the distinctive contribution that migration within developing regions makes to human development in terms of income, human capital and broader processes of social and political change. The paper concludes that the analysis of migration in poorer regions of the world and its relationship with human development requires much more data than is currently available. |
| Keywords: | Migration; South-South migration; Africa; Human development |
| JEL: | J6 Z1 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19185&r=dev |
| By: | Yang, Dean |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the relationship between international migration and human development. First, it reviews what we know about the factors that drive migration from developing to developed countries. Second, it reviews existing knowledge about the impact of international migration and remittances on the economic and human development of migrants’ source countries. These first two sections of the paper are accompanied by an assessment of the gaps in our knowledge that need to be filled with further research. The last section of the paper outlines policies that could help raise the development impact of migration and remittances. First, governments should extend absentee voting rights to overseas citizens. In addition, facilitating migrants’ access to and use of financial services could bring substantial benefits. Furthermore, governments can profitably devote self-discovery and enterprise promotion efforts to small-scale activities. Finally, there could be substantial benefits from encouraging overseas citizens to retire at home while taking advantage of accumulated retirement benefits from their migration host countries. |
| Keywords: | International migration; remittances; human development |
| JEL: | O15 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19212&r=dev |
| By: | Chappell, Laura; Glennie, Alex |
| Abstract: | It is becoming increasingly clear that migration can have important impacts upon development. As a result, policymakers are searching for ways to increase migration’s developmental benefits, and decrease its costs. This paper examines the levers at their disposal. We recognise the importance of the policy instruments which receive the most attention – migration policy (especially rules about entry and exit) and development policy (in particular migration’s place in national development strategies and donor cooperation policies). However, we suggest that to maximise benefits and minimise costs, policy thinking must be broadened and made more coherent. We set out in a systematic manner the ways in which migration impacts upon development. We then analyse how the process of migration and development creates those impacts, and suggest where policy can intervene in the process to improve outcomes. We illustrate our analysis with a number of policy case studies. |
| Keywords: | migration; development; policy |
| JEL: | O15 E6 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19191&r=dev |
| By: | Miguel, Edward; Hamory, Joan |
| Abstract: | This study exploits a new longitudinal dataset to examine selective migration among 1,500 Kenyan youth originally living in rural areas. We examine whether migration rates are related to individual “ability”, broadly defined to include cognitive aptitude as well as health, and then use these estimates to determine how much of the urban-rural wage gap in Kenya is due to selection versus actual productivity differences. Whereas previous empirical work has focused on schooling attainment as a proxy for cognitive ability, we employ an arguably preferable measure, a pre-migration primary school academic test score. Pre-migration randomized assignment to a deworming treatment program provides variation in health status. We find a positive relationship between both measures of human capital (cognitive ability and deworming) and subsequent migration, though only the former is robust at standard statistical significance levels. Specifically, an increase of two standard deviations in academic test score increases the likelihood of rural-urban migration by 17%. Accounting for migration selection due to both cognitive ability and schooling attainment does not explain more than a small fraction of the sizeable urban-rural wage gap in Kenya, suggesting that productivity differences across sectors remain large. |
| Keywords: | Migration; selection; human capital; ability; urban-rural wage gap; productivity |
| JEL: | O15 C33 |
| Date: | 2009–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19228&r=dev |
| By: | Cerrutti, Marcela |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the process of feminization of South American intra-regional migration, with emphasis in the Southern Cone. It describes recent changes and trends, and addresses some of the most salient issues on the participation and experiences of female migrants. It deals with the social and economic reasons underlying the increasing autonomous migration of women, particularly on the interconnections between the South-American economic restructuring and the increasing demand of female migrants by the service and care sectors. Further issues are examined, such as the potential effects of the migration process on women’s empowerment; the emergence of global chains of care and its relation with long-distance motherhood; and the labor market experiences of female migrant. Finally, the report also deals with the dark side of the women’s migration: female trafficking. |
| Keywords: | gender, female migration, South American intra-regional migration |
| JEL: | Z1 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19192&r=dev |
| By: | Abazov, Rafis |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses recent migration trends in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Within the last decade (1999-2009) the Russian Federation became the world’s second largest recipient of migrants after the United States, while the Ukraine became the fourth largest and Kazakhstan became the ninth largest. Such large-scale population movement, which includes a significant number of labour migrants from resource-poor to resource-rich states in the region, has had an inevitable impact on the social, economic and human development in both source and host countries. By 2007-2009 Moldova, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have develop a high dependency on international money transfers from their labour migrants, having the world’s highest ratio of remittances to their GDP. During last few years numerous studies focused on migration issues within the CIS region, yet there are a number of problems to be still explored: What are the “push” and “pull” factors that motivate this large-scale migration? What are the current trends in the labour migration in the CIS? What are the short-term and long-term implications of the current migration trends for migrants and their families? What is the impact of the migration on human development in the region, including poverty reduction, social and gender equality, education and health? The paper addresses these and other questions. First, it evaluates the historical, political and social background and demographic context of the population movement in the region, which has become one of the most important determinants of migration during the recent times. Second, it overviews the most important push and pull factors that have affected migration during recent years and different types of migration responses to the social and economic pressures in sending and receiving countries. Third, it reviews the major impacts of the population movement on human development in the CIS region. In conclusion the paper summarizes the major findings and provides policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | labour migration; regional labour market; human development; poverty; migration policy; remittances; rural-urban migration; urbanization; CIS; Kazakhstan; and Russia |
| JEL: | O15 J0 |
| Date: | 2009–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19220&r=dev |
| By: | Harttgen, Kenneth; Klasen, Stephan |
| Abstract: | Migration continues to be a very important income diversification strategy, especially for poor populations in developing countries. However, while there has been much analysis on the economic consequences of migration for migrants and the receiving regions, whether internal migration improves or deteriorates human development is not easy to determine. This papers applies a recently development analytical framework that allows to calculate the HDI for subgroups of a population. We use this approach to calculate the HDI by internal migrational status to assess the differences between the levels of human development of internal migrants compared to non-migrants, and also across countries as well as by urban and rural areas. An empirical illustration for a sample of 16 low and middle income countries shows that, overall, internal migrants slightly achieve a higher level of human development than non-migrants. The results also show that differences in income between migrants and non-migrants are generally higher than differences in education and life-expectancy. Disaggregating the analysis by urban and rural areas reveals that urban internal migrants are better o® than urban non-migrants and rural migrants are better off than rural non-migrants. |
| Keywords: | Human Development; Migration Income Inequality; Differential Mortality; Inequality in Education |
| JEL: | D31 I0 O15 J0 |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19237&r=dev |
| By: | Ha, Wei; Yi, Junjian; Zhang, Junsen |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of both permanent and temporary emigration on human capital formation and economic growth of the source regions. To achieve this end, this paper explores the Chinese provincial panel data from 1980 to 2005. First, the fixed effects model is employed to estimate the effect of emigration on school enrollment rates in the source regions. Relative to this aspect, we find that the magnitude (scale) of permanent emigrants (measured by the permanent emigration ratio) is conducive to the improvement of both middle and high schools enrollments. In contrast, the magnitude of temporary emigrants has a significantly positive effect on middle school enrollment but does not have a significant effect on high school enrollment. More interestingly, different educational attainments of temporary emigrants have different effects on school enrollment. Specifically, the share of temporary emigrants with high school education positively affects middle school enrollment, while the share of temporary emigrants with middle school education negatively affects high school enrollment. Second, the instrumental variable method is applied to estimate the effect of emigration on economic growth within the framework of system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The estimation results suggest that both permanent and temporary emigrations have a detrimental effect on the economic growth of the source regions. Our empirical tests provide some new evidence to the "brain drain" debate, which has recently received increasing attention. |
| Keywords: | Brain drain; human capital; emigration; economic growth |
| JEL: | O15 J22 J24 O12 |
| Date: | 2009–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19221&r=dev |
| By: | Azcona, Ginette |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the treatment of migration in Participatory Poverty Assessments (PPAs), conducted in 14 different countries. The analysis suggests that for the very poor, migration is most often rural to rural and rural to urban and not across borders. The drivers of migration are context specific, but are generally related to the pursuit of greater livelihood opportunities, greater access to education and health services, and at times necessitated by crises resulting from conflict or natural disaster. Migrants are typically young men, although more and more women are also leaving villages in search of paid work. Interestingly, while the feminization of migration contributes to greater investments in education, some evidence suggests that the impact is not uniform across all school-aged children in the household. Finally, in a number of countries, households with migrants were more likely to be categorized as well-off, regardless of their level of assets. Significant differences in impacts corresponding to the type of migration (internal versus international), and duration (i.e. seasonal, temporal, and permanent) were also observed. |
| Keywords: | Participatory approaches; methods; poverty; migration; human development. |
| JEL: | F22 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19239&r=dev |
| By: | Landau, Loren B.; Segatti, Aurelia Wa Kabwe |
| Abstract: | Controls on human mobility and efforts to undermine them continue to shape South Africa’s politics, economy, and society. Despite the need for improved policy responses to human mobility, reform is hindered by lack of capacity, misinformation, and anti-migrant sentiments within and outside of government. This report outlines these trends and tensions by providing a broad overview of the limited demographic and socio-economic data available on migration to and within South Africa. Doing so highlights the spatialised aspects of human mobility, trends centred on and around the country’s towns and cities. It also finds significant development potential in international migrants’ skills and entrepreneurialism. By enhancing remittances and trade, non-nationals may also expand markets for South African products and services. Despite these potential benefits, there are severe obstacles to immigration reform. These include a renewed South African populism; the influence of a strong anti-trafficking lobby; a European Union (EU) agenda promoting stricter border controls; poor implementation capacity; and endemic corruption among police and immigration officials. There are different, but equally significant problems in reforming frameworks governing domestic mobility including perceptions that in-migration is an inherent drain on municipal budgets. Recognising these limitations, the report concludes with three recommendations. (1) A conceptual reconsideration of the divisions between documented and undocumented migrants; between voluntary and forced migrants; and between international and domestic migration. (2) An analytical respatialisation in future planning and management scenarios involving regional and local bodies in evaluating, designing and implementing policy. (3) To situate migration and its management within global debates over governance and development and for ‘migration mainstreaming’ into all aspects of governance. The success of any of these initiatives will require better data, the skills to analyse that data, and the integration of data into planning processes. |
| Keywords: | migration; urbanisation; governance; South Africa; policy reform; capabilities |
| JEL: | J6 Z1 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19182&r=dev |
| By: | Black, Richard; Sward, Jon |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the specific question of how Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) address migration and its potential to enhance human development at the national level. Based on a review of PRSPs completed since 1999, it argues that migration often remains poorly recognised or analysed in poorer countries in terms of its impacts on poverty reduction, whilst attitudes towards migration in these countries are often highly negative and/or based on limited evidence, especially in relation to internal migration. Analysis of how both internal and international migration are treated in PRSPs is also placed in the context of a broader understanding of the purpose of, and constraints faced by the PRS process. The paper goes on to highlight the extent to which in Sub-Saharan African countries, successive drafts of PRSPs have shown increasing attention to migration. It also considers how analysis of the problems and opportunities associated with different types of migration are converted into policy initiatives, highlighting the lack of good practice in terms of the incorporation of migration into human development policy. |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs); internal migration; international migration; sub-Saharan Africa; analysis of migration |
| JEL: | O15 |
| Date: | 2009–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19222&r=dev |
| By: | Martin, Philip |
| Abstract: | About three percent of the world’s 6.1 billion people were international migrants in 2000. Population growth is expected to slow between 2000 and 2050 in comparison to 1950-2000, but international migration is expected to rise as persisting demographic and economic inequalities that motivate migration interact with revolutions in communications and transportation that enable people to cross borders. The default policy option to manage what is sometimes deemed out-of-control migration, adjusting the rights of migrants, is unsatisfactory, prompting this review of longer term factors affecting migration patterns, including aging in industrial countries, rural-urban migration that spills over national borders, and the migration infrastructure of agents and networks that moves people. The paper concludes with an assessment of the likely effects of the 2008-09 recession on international migration. |
| Keywords: | Global population and labor force; aging; international migration; rural-urban migration; recession and migration |
| JEL: | O15 J0 |
| Date: | 2009–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19199&r=dev |
| By: | Chowdhury,, Shyamal; Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq; Bryan, Gharad |
| Abstract: | The rural northwestern districts of Bangladesh, home to 10 million people, experience a preharvest seasonal famine, locally known as Monga, with disturbing regularity. Surprisingly, outmigration from the Monga-prone districts is not all that common. This research tests whether migration could play any role in Monga mitigation. We implemented a randomized intervention that provided monetary incentives to individuals in Monga-prone regions to seasonally outmigrate during the pre-harvest season. We experimentally varied the conditionalities attached to the incentives, such as a requirement to form a group and migrate jointly (as opposed to migrating individually), sometimes assigning migration partners and the destination, and varying group size. This paper reports just the first stage results of this randomized intervention project, where we focus on household responsiveness to our incentive offers in terms of their decision to migrate. Our cash and credit incentives had a very large effect on migration propensity: over 40% of those receiving an incentive choose to migrate, whereas only 13% of control households do. This large effect is consistent with the presence of savings or borrowing constraints for these households, since providing information on wages and employment conditions at destinations only has a negligible 2 percentage point impact on the propensity to migrate relative to the control group. |
| Keywords: | Monga; famine; Bangladesh; migration |
| JEL: | O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2009–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19224&r=dev |
| By: | Fang, Cai; Yang, Du; Meiyan, Wang |
| Abstract: | China has witnessed the largest labor migration since the reform and opening up policies were implemented. According to the most recent statistics, the total number of rural to urban migrant workers reached 136 million. Migrants are defined as persons who have left out of township for more than 6 months. The migration flow has propelled the economic and societal transition in China through labor productivity enhancement and social restructuring. Accordingly, the Chinese government has improved the migration policies with increasing migration flow and the changes of labor market situations. This report is organized as follows. Section one briefly introduces when and how the migration started by reviewing the history, size and trend, impacts of migration in China and the vulnerability of migrants. Section two reviews the main migration policy changes in the past three decades. Section three illuminates the Lewisian turning point that marks economic development and transitioning in China. Section four discusses the relevance of China’s experiences to other developing economies in terms of economic development and migration policy changes. |
| Keywords: | Migration in China; Labor mobility; Impact of crisis |
| JEL: | O15 J0 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19187&r=dev |
| By: | de Haas, Hein |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that mobility and migration have always been an intrinsic part of human development. Migration can be considered as a fundamental capabilities-enhancing freedom itself. However, any meaningful understanding of migration needs to simultaneously analyse agency and structure. Rather than applying dichotomous classifications such as between forced and voluntary migration, it is more appropriate to conceive of a continuum running from low to high constraints under which migration occurs, in which all migrants deal with structural constraints, although to highly varying degrees. Besides being an integral part of human development, mobility also tends to affect the same structural processes of which it is part. Simplistic positive-versus-negative debates on migration and development can be overcome by integrating agency-structure dialectics in the analysis of migration impacts. This paper argues that (i) the degree to which migrants are able to affect structural change is real but limited; (ii) the nature of change in sending and receiving is not pre-determined; and (iii) that in order to enable a more focused and rigorous debate, there is a need to better distinguish and specify different levels and dimensions at which the reciprocal relationship between human mobility and development can be analysed. A critical reading of the empirical literature leads to the conclusion that it would be naïve to think that despite their often considerable benefits for individuals and communities, migration and remittances alone can remove more structural development constraints. Despite their development potential, migrants and remittances can neither be blamed for a lack of development nor be expected to trigger take-off development in generally unattractive investment environments. By increasing selectivity and suffering among migrants, current immigration restrictions have a negative impact on migrants’ wellbeing as well as the poverty and inequality reducing potential of migration. |
| Keywords: | human development; human mobility; migration; poverty |
| JEL: | J6 O2 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19176&r=dev |
| By: | Facchini, Giovanni; Mayda, Anna Maria |
| Abstract: | We analyze a newly available dataset of migration policy decisions reported by governments to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs between 1976 and 2007. We find evidence indicating that most governments have policies aimed at either maintaining the status quo or at lowering the level of migration. We also document variation in migration policy over time and across countries of different regions and income levels. Finally, we examine patterns in various aspects of destination countries’ migration policies (policies towards family reunification, temporary vs. permanent migration, high-skilled migration). This analysis leads us to investigate the determinants of migration policy in a destination country. We develop a political economy framework in which voter attitudes represent a key component. We survey the literature on the determinants of public opinion towards immigrants and examine the link between these attitudes and governments’ policy decisions. While we find evidence broadly consistent with the median voter model, we conclude that this framework is not sufficient to understand actual migration policies. We discuss evidence which suggests that interest-groups dynamics may play a very important role. |
| Keywords: | immigration; immigration policy; median voter; interest groups; political economy |
| JEL: | J6 Z1 F5 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19179&r=dev |
| By: | Luthria, Manjula |
| Abstract: | Most small fragile states have their own unique circumstances that predispose them to social conflict or frequent economic disruptions. These disruptions end up imposing a large cost on regional neighbours and on the international community more broadly. Therefore the development community is in search of ways to reduce the risk of conflict but this search has proved elusive thus far. This paper explores the potential for migration to serve as a safety valve as well as a medium term strategy for employment creation in conflict-prone states. It draws together the analytical and empirical arguments needed to make the case for enhancing the labour mobility options for these vulnerable populations. |
| Keywords: | Fragile states; export diversification; small states; migration; remittances |
| JEL: | F22 O15 F24 |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19238&r=dev |
| By: | Klugman, Jeni; Medalho Pereira, Isabel |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an internationally comparable assessment of several dimensions of migration policies as of early 2009. For a selected set of 28 countries, both developed and developing, we analyse the admission criteria, policies on integration and treatment of migrants, and efforts to enforce those policies. Irregular migration is a particular area of focus. The analysis distinguishes between different entry regimes, namely: labour migrants (high or low skilled, with a permanent or a temporary permit), those who move with a family-related visa, humanitarian migrants (asylum seekers and refugees), international visitors and international students. The data is drawn from an assessment by country experts as well as by desk-research of HDRO staff. |
| Keywords: | Migration policies; admission; treatment; enforcement |
| JEL: | O15 J0 |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19231&r=dev |
| By: | Durand, Jorge |
| Abstract: | The main characteristic of the Latin American migration on the 20th century was the change of flow. Until the 1950s, Latin America received migrants from Europe and the Middle East. As a result of economic change, political instability, and economic crisis, Latin America started exporting migrant workers. Now, Latin American migrants mainly go to the U.S., and in less extend to Europe (i.e. Spain, Italy, and Portugal), and in some cases to Japan as it is the case of Peru and Brazil. Several migrant patterns follow this process, which is characteristic to the massive emigration at the dawn of the 21st century. |
| Keywords: | Latin America; immigration; emigration; United States; Europe |
| JEL: | Z1 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19207&r=dev |
| By: | Gray Molina, George; Yañez, Ernesto |
| Abstract: | Over half of Bolivian heads of household are lifetime migrants. This paper looks at the long term impact of internal migration over human development in Bolivia. Three issues frame these effects. First, twenty five years of rural to urban migration have transformed the demographic profile of Bolivian society. The new middle third is younger, more bilingual and better educated, with more access to social services than in the past. The poorest of the poor, however, did not migrate to the extent of the non-poor. Second, urban workers make approximately four times as much wages as identical workers in rural areas, controlling for age, ethnicity, and years of schooling. Two caveats dampen this place premium effect: schooling quality and informal insurance mechanisms that make migration more costly. Third, increases in human development can be associated to an “urbanization dividend” that made social services more accessible to first and second generation migrants over a twenty-five year period. Future increases in human development, however, are likely to depend on providing quality services and expanding socials services to the rural poor, rather on gains from urbanization. The key policy challenges of the future include both an expansion of services to the poorest of the poor in rural areas and breaking down discrimination barriers against women and indigenous people in urban labor markets. |
| Keywords: | Migration; human development; poverty; employment; schooling |
| JEL: | O15 J11 I32 |
| Date: | 2009–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19229&r=dev |
| By: | Ruhs, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potential impacts of the rights of migrant workers (“migrant rights”) on the human development of actual and potential migrants, their families, and other people in migrants’ countries of origin. A key feature of the paper is its consideration of how migrant rights affect both the capability to move and work in higher income countries (i.e. the access of workers in low-income countries to labour markets of higher-income countries) and capabilities while living and working abroad. The paper suggests that there may be a trade-off between the number and some of the rights of low-skilled migrants admitted to high-income countries and explores the implications for human development. |
| Keywords: | Migrant rights; immigration policy; human development; global labor markets |
| JEL: | O15 E6 |
| Date: | 2009–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19206&r=dev |
| By: | Tirtosudarmo, Riwanto |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses population movement in Indonesia within the broader contexts of human development. Human movement, voluntary and involuntary, is a reflection of the people initiatives and responses to the changing nature of society and economy. As a large archipelagic state, movement of people across the country, historically, has always an important dimension of social formation in Indonesia. The paper however focuses on movement of people in the last four decades. It aims to examine the connection between migration and its wider social and economic contexts, looking at how politics shape migration policy and in turn, how migration affects policy making. The paper discusses at length recent issues of overseas labor migration, particularly on the apparently embedded inertia within the policy making processes. The continuing incidences of irregular migration, forced migration and human trafficking obviously mirror the incapacity of the state in properly managing the movement of people. The insufficient data and information generally hampered any conclusive linkages of migration and human development. With or without state’s proper policies people will continuously on the move enriching human development in Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia; migration; transmigration; social formation; economic development; human development |
| JEL: | Z1 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19201&r=dev |
| By: | de Bruijn, Bart |
| Abstract: | In the study of international mobility, refugees make up a very specific population. In contrast to most migrants, forcibly displaced persons have little opportunity for expanding livelihoods, and are usually faced with realities that deny them a dignified life and fulfilment of their capabilities. In many situations, people who left their homes to escape from persecution, armed conflict or violence face restrictive policies of the countries in which they found refuge and become critically dependent on humanitarian assistance. This paper describes living conditions and wellbeing of refugees – and more particularly camp-based refugees – in six countries with protracted refugee conditions: Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya in Africa, and Nepal, Bangladesh and Thailand in Asia. It primarily draws on UNHCR’s ‘Standards and Indicators’ data. Thematic areas covered in the paper include legal protection, gender-related issues, food security and nutritional status, health, education, and refugee livelihoods and coping strategies. The assessment of refugees’ living conditions proceeds along two different perspectives. The first is a gap analysis based on UNHCR standards, which are largely in line with SPHERE standards. The second is a comparison of refugees’ living conditions with those of host populations in the country of asylum and with those of populations on the country of origin. The available data lead to the conclusion that the living conditions of refugees vary across thematic areas and are strongly contextualised, depending on a complex of social, economic, political and attitudinal factors. There is also evidence that despite often grim conditions, at times the targeted efforts of humanitarian assistance and own coping strategies produce situations for refugees that are relatively better than that of the local hosting communities or the population in the region of origin. |
| Keywords: | Refugees; displacement; living conditions; livelihoods; protection; UNHCR |
| JEL: | O15 I3 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19208&r=dev |
| By: | Kundu, Amitabh |
| Abstract: | The present paper overviews urbanisation and migration process in Asian countries at macro level since 1950s, including the projections made till 2030. It questions the thesis of southward movement of urbanisation and that of urban explosion in Asia. Increased unaffordability of urban space and basic amenities, negative policy perspective towards migration and various rural development pogrammes designed to discourage migration are responsible for this exclusionary urban growth and a distinct decline in urban rural growth differential, with the major exception of China. The changing structure of urban population across different size categories reveals a shift of growth dynamics from large to second order cities and stagnation of small towns. The pace of urbanization has been modest to high in select countries in Asia, not because of their level of economic growth but its composition and labour intensity of rapidly growing informal sectors. Several countries have launched programmes for improving governance and infrastructural facilities in a few large cities, attracting private investors from within as well as outside the country. These have pushed out squatter settlements, informal sector businesses along with a large number of pollutant industries to a few pockets and peripheries of the cities. The income level and quality of basic amenities in these cities, as a result, have gone up but that has been associated with increased intra-city disparity and creation of degenerated periphery. Nonetheless, there is no strong evidence that urbanization is associated with destabilization of agrarian economy, poverty and immiserisation, despite the measures of globalization resulting in regional imbalances. The overview of the trend and pattern suggests that the pace of urbanization would be reasonably high but much below the level projected by UNPD in the coming decades. |
| Keywords: | urbanisation; migration; exclusion; periphery; informalisation; small towns; economic concentration; urban rural growth differential; Asia; China and India |
| JEL: | O15 P25 N95 |
| Date: | 2009–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19197&r=dev |
| By: | Deshingkar, Priya; Akter, Shaheen |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses how gaps in both the data on migration and the understanding of the role of migration in livelihood strategies and economic growth in India, have led to inaccurate policy prescriptions and a lack of political commitment to improving the living and working conditions of migrants. Field evidence from major migrant employing sectors is synthesised to show that circular migration is the dominant form of economic mobility for the poor; especially the lower castes and tribes. The authors argue that the human costs of migration are high due to faulty implementation of protective legislation and loopholes in the law and not due to migration per se. The paper discusses child labour in specific migration streams in detail stressing that this issue needs to be addressed in parallel. It also highlights the non-economic drivers and outcomes of migration that need to be considered when understanding its impacts. The authors calculate that there are roughly 100 million circular migrants in India contributing 10% to the national GDP. New vulnerabilities created by the economic recession are discussed. Detailed analysis of village resurveys in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are also presented and these show conclusively that migration is an important route out of poverty. |
| Keywords: | India; circular migration; caste; tribe; child labour; human development |
| JEL: | Z1 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19193&r=dev |
| By: | Deb, Partha; Seck, Papa |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to measure the returns to migration using non-experimental data taking both observed and unobserved characteristics into account. A significant challenge related to migration research and the issues of unobserved heterogeneity is that the standard 2stage least squares estimator (2SLS) is strictly only applicable to situations with linear and continuous treatment and outcomes, both of which are not appropriate for models of migration and many outcomes of interest. Furthermore, migration is not always a binary process given that people migrate to city or non-city locations and some migrants do return. Introducing these multinomial treatment effects means that one cannot rely on standard 2SLS methods. Using panel data from Indonesia (Indonesia Family Life Survey—IFLS) and Mexico (Mexican Family Life Survey— MxFLS) and applying non-linear instrumental variable (Heckman’s treatment effects model) and maximum simulated likelihood models, we measure the impacts of migration on a broad range of variables that include socio economic outcomes such as consumption, nutrition, health status and emotional well-being for adult household members and health and schooling outcomes for children. We find consistent results for both countries that point to significant trade-offs related to migration. We found that migration can greatly improve socio-economic status through increases in income or consumption but can also be detrimental to the health status and emotional well-being of migrants and/or their extended families. |
| Keywords: | The aim of this paper is to measure the returns to migration using non-experimental data taking both observed and unobserved characteristics into account. A significant challenge related to migration research and the issues of unobserved heterogeneity is that the standard 2stage least squares estimator (2SLS) is strictly only applicable to situations with linear and continuous treatment and outcomes; both of which are not appropriate for models of migration and many outcomes of interest. Furthermore; migration is not always a binary process given that people migrate to city or non-city locations and some migrants do return. Introducing these multinomial treatment effects means that one cannot rely on standard 2SLS methods. Using panel data from Indonesia (Indonesia Family Life Survey—IFLS) and Mexico (Mexican Family Life Survey— MxFLS) and applying non-linear instrumental variable (Heckman’s treatment effects model) and maximum simulated likelihood models; we measure the impacts of migration on a broad range of variables that include socio economic outcomes such as consumption; nutrition; health status and emotional well-being for adult household members and health and schooling outcomes for children. We find consistent results for both countries that point to significant trade-offs related to migration. We found that migration can greatly improve socio-economic status through increases in income or consumption but can also be detrimental to the health status and emotional well-being of migrants and/or their extended families. |
| JEL: | C3 O15 C8 |
| Date: | 2009–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19214&r=dev |
| By: | Clemens, Michael A. |
| Abstract: | Large numbers of doctors, engineers, and other skilled workers from developing counties choose to move to other countries. Do their choices threaten development? The answer appears so obvious that their movement is most commonly known by the pejorative term “brain drain”. This paper reconsiders the question starting from the most mainstream, explicit definitions of “development”. Under these definitions, it is only possible to advance development by regulating skilled workers’ choices if that regulation greatly expands the substantive freedoms of others to meet their basic needs and live the lives they wish. Much existing evidence and some new evidence suggests that regulating skilled-worker mobility itself does nothing to address the underlying causes of skilled migrants’ choices, generally brings few benefits to others, and instead brings diverse unintended harm. The paper concludes with examples of effective ways that developing countries can build a skill base for development without regulating human movement. The mental shift required to take these policies seriously would be aided by dropping the sententious term “brain drain” in favor of the neutral, accurate, and concise term “skill flow”. |
| Keywords: | skill; talent; professional; educated; graduate; degree; labor; global |
| JEL: | O15 J0 |
| Date: | 2009–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19186&r=dev |
| By: | Laczko, Frank; Danailova-Trainor, Gergana |
| Abstract: | Poverty is often regarded as the "root cause" of trafficking, but the linkages between poverty, lack of development and trafficking are complex. For example, there is some evidence to suggest that victims of cross-border trafficking are more likely to originate from middle-income rather than lower-income countries. Trafficking and development have tended to be treated as very separate policy areas and the assessment of the development impact of counter-trafficking programmes is still at an early stage. This paper outlines a possible framework for a more evidence-based approach to understanding the linkages between trafficking, trafficking policy and human development. The paper argues that the human development gains from greater mobility could be significantly enhanced if there was greater coherence between policies to combat trafficking and policies to promote development. |
| Keywords: | Human Trafficking; Development; Evaluation; Poverty Reduction Strategies; Policy Coherence. |
| JEL: | O15 I3 |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:19234&r=dev |
| By: | Aureo de Paula (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Jose A. Scheinkman (Department of Economics, Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | We test implications of a simple equilibrium model of informality using a survey of 48,000+ small firms in Brazil. In the model, agent's ability to manage production differ and informal firms face a higher cost of capital and limitation on size, although these informal firms avoid tax payments. As a result, informal firms are managed by less able entrepreneurs, are smaller and employ a lower capital-labor ratio. When education is an imperfect proxy for ability, the model predicts that the interaction of the manager's education and formality is positively correlated with firm size. Using the model, we estimate that informal firms in our dataset faced at least 1.3 times the cost of capital of formal firms. |
| Keywords: | Informal Sector, Tax Avoidance, Brazil |
| JEL: | H2 H3 K4 |
| Date: | 2009–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:09-044&r=dev |
| By: | Anderson, Kym |
| Abstract: | A study of distortions to agricultural incentives in 18 developing countries during 1960-84, by Krueger, Schiff and Valdés (1988; 1991), found that policies in most of those developing countries were directly or indirectly harming their farmers. Since the mid-1980s there has been a substantial amount of policy reform and opening up of many developing countries, and indicators of that progress have been made available recently by a new study that has compiled estimates for a much larger sample of developing countries and for as many years as possible since 1955. The new study also covers Europe’s transition economies and comparable estimates for high-income countries, thereby covering more than 90 percent of world agricultural output and employment. This paper summarizes the methodology used in the new study (pointing out similarities and differences with those used by the OECD and by Krueger, Schiff and Valdés), compares a synopsis of the indicators from Krueger, Schiff and Valdés and the new study for the period to 1984, summarizes the changing extent of price distortions across countries and commodities globally since then, and concludes by evaluating the degree of distortion reduction over the years since 1984 compared with how much still remains, according to the results of a global economy wide model. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural price distortions; developing countries; trade policies |
| JEL: | F13 F59 H20 N50 O13 Q18 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7601&r=dev |
| By: | Facchini, Giovanni; Mayda, Anna Maria |
| Abstract: | It is commonly argued that skilled immigration benefits the destination country through several channels. Yet, only a small group of countries reports to have policies in place aimed at increasing the intake of skilled immigrants. Why? In this paper we analyze the factors that affect a direct measure of individual attitudes towards skilled migration, focusing on two main channels: the labor market and the welfare state. We find that more educated natives are less likely to favor skilled immigration - consistent with the labor-market channel - while richer people are more likely to do so - in accordance with the welfare state channel under the tax adjustment model. Our findings thus suggest that the labor market competition threat perceived by skilled natives in the host countries might be driving the observed cautious policies. |
| Keywords: | attitudes; immigration policy; political economy; skilled immigration |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7592&r=dev |
| By: | Maria Serena Borgia (Unibo. Dip. Statistica); Lucia Pasquini (Unibo. Dip. Statistica) |
| Abstract: | In recent years the analysis of educational outcomes has become increasingly important due mainly to the importance of success at school and the role of the modern school, where students are trained on how to make inroads and work towards planning their lives. In keeping with law no 144/1999, the Province of Bologna local authority collects data on student individuals of compulsory schooling age. This survey represents a complete coverage of the territory. The aim of this study is to use the data on individuals to explain the educational outcomes of these students. We have analysed the data on 5,944 students who were born in 1988 and who attended secondary schools in the province of Bologna in one or more of the five school years from 2002/03 to 2006/07. At first we calculated the success probabilities by gender and institute; later, in order to determine and quantify the influence of students' individual characteristics on final outcomes we estimated five logistic regressions, one for each school year and class attended. Our models confirm the exploratory analysis: variables such as gender, citizenship and the type of school attended do affect educational outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Esiti scolastici, Probabilità di successo, Regressione logistica Educational Outcomes, Success Probabilities, Logistic Regression |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bot:quadip:94&r=dev |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu; James A. Robinson; Rafael Santos |
| Abstract: | Many states in Latin America, Africa and Asia lack the monopoly of violence, identified by Max Weber as the foundation of the state, and thus the capacity to govern effectively. In this paper we develop a new perspective on the establishment of the monopoly of violence and the formation of the state. We build a model to explain the incentive of central states to eliminate non-state armed actors (paramilitaries) in a democracy. The model is premised on the idea that paramilitaries may choose to and can influence elections. Since paramilitaries have preferences over policies, this reduces the incentives of the politicians they favor to eliminate them. The model also shows that while in non-paramilitary areas policies are targeted at citizens, in paramilitary controlled areas they are targeted at paramilitaries. We then investigate the predictions of our model using data from Colombia between 1991 and 2006. We first present regression and case study evidence supporting our postulate that paramilitary groups can have significant effects on elections for the legislature and the executive. Next, we show that the evidence is also broadly consistent with the implication of the model that paramilitaries tend to persist to the extent that they deliver votes to candidates for the executive whose preferences are close to theirs and that this effect is larger in areas where the Presidential candidate would have otherwise not done as well. These results illustrate that, consistent with our model, there appears to be a symbiotic relationship between some executives and paramilitaries. Finally, we use roll-call votes to illustrate a possible ‘quid pro quo’ between the executive and paramilitaries in Colombia. |
| JEL: | D7 H11 |
| Date: | 2009–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15578&r=dev |
| By: | Bentry Mkwara (University of Waikato); Dan Marsh (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | Deforestation arising from conversion of forest areas into agriculture is a serious problem in Malawi. Cultivation of subsistence and cash crops is often cited as a major cause of this problem. This paper applies the von Thunen model to firstly, discuss competition for agricultural land and secondly, establish why the poor are closely associated with forests. Further, a regression analysis is conducted to examine the effects of changes in crop land use on changes in forest cover. Results indicate that cultivation of different crops has varying effects on deforestation. Cultivation of maize, primarily by the poor, appears to be the principal cause of deforestation while tobacco and pulses stand at second and third positions, respectively. Finally, a simple methodology is developed to estimate the extent of poverty-driven deforestation in Malawi. |
| Keywords: | poverty; environment; agriculture; deforestation; Malawi |
| JEL: | Q15 Q23 |
| Date: | 2009–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:09/10&r=dev |