|
on Development |
| By: | Eric Strobl (Ecole Polytechnique, Département d'Économie, France.) |
| Abstract: | We examine the distributional impact of large dams on cropland productivity in Africa. As our unit of analysis we use a scientifically based spatial breakdown of the continent that allows one to exactly define regions in terms of their upstream/downstream relationship at a highly disaggregated level. We then use satellite data to derive measures of cropland productivity within these areas. Our econometric analysis shows that while regions downstream benefit from large dams, cropland within the vicinity tends to suffer productivity losses during droughts. Overall our results suggest that because of rainfall shortages dams caused a net loss of 0.96 percent in production in Africa over our sample period (1981-2000). However, further dam construction in appropriate areas could potentially lead to large increases in cropland production even if rainfall is not plenty. |
| Keywords: | dams, agricultural productivity, Africa |
| JEL: | O20 Q19 |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:09-043&r=dev |
| By: | Klaus Prettner |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the consequences of population ageing for longrun economic growth perspectives. We introduce population ageing into a generalized model of endogenous technological change incorporating the model of Romer (1990) and Jones (1995) as special cases. We find that increases in longevity have positive effects on steady state per capita output growth in endogenous as well as in semiendogenous growth models. In the latter case, the positive dependence can also be shown for the equilibrium growth rate during transition to the steady state. |
| Keywords: | population ageing, endogenous technological change, long-run economic growth. |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vid:wpaper:0908&r=dev |
| By: | Carol Newman (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Gaia Narciso (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Finn Tarp (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen and UNU-Wider); Vu Xuan Nguyet Hong (Department for Economic Science Management Research, Central Institute for Economic Management, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the productivity performance of the manufacturing sector in Vietnam between 2001 and 2007. Total Factor Productivity indices are computed using an index number approach and the productivity performance of manufacturing sub-sectors is analysed. We find that productivity increases in almost all sectors and that for many sectors the dispersion in productivity is declining over time. However, for the most productive sectors the gap is widening suggesting that productivity is being driven by the most productive enterprises getting better, leaving the least productive behind. The empirical analysis reveals investment and technology usage as important determinants of enterprise productivity levels. Specifically, higher levels of productivity are found in foreign- and state-owned enterprises, driven almost entirely by higher levels of investment and technology usage. Our results provide a strong quantitative basis in support of ongoing government initiatives aimed at encouraging investment in technology and innovation. They also point to the clear need for such initiatives to be complemented by measures to provide a more balanced distribution of investment, such that a level playing field is created for the different types of enterprises. |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0109&r=dev |
| By: | Quamrul Ashraf (Williams College); Oded Galor (Brown University; CEPR); Omer Ozak (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits cross-country variation in the degree of geographical isolation, prior to the advent of sea-faring and airborne transportation technologies, to examine its impact on the course of economic development across the globe. The empirical investigation establishes that prehistoric geographical isolation has generated a persistent beneficial effect on the process of development and contributed to the contemporary variation in the standard of living across countries. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Development, Isolation, Agglomeration, Globalization |
| JEL: | O15 F15 N7 |
| Date: | 2009–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2009-04&r=dev |
| By: | Juhn, Chinhui (University of Houston); Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (University of Houston); Turan, Belgi (University of Houston) |
| Abstract: | The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. A recent paper by Young (2005), however, suggests that similar to the "Black Death" episode in Europe, HIV/AIDS will actually lead to higher growth per capita among the a affected African countries. Not only will population decline, behavioral responses in fertility will reinforce this decline by reducing the willingness to engage in unprotected sex. We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys that link an individual woman’s fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allows us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility. In contrast to Young (2005), however, we find that local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on non-infected women's fertility. |
| Keywords: | HIV/AIDS, fertility, economic development |
| JEL: | O12 I12 J13 |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4473&r=dev |
| By: | Ibarrarán, Pablo (Inter-American Development Bank); Maffioli, Alessandro (Inter-American Development Bank); Stucchi, Rodolfo (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Very little is known about the effectiveness of SME policies, and a careful look at the structure, mechanisms and incentives provided by these policies suggest caution in their implementation and, most importantly, the need to carefully and closely monitor their results. This paper relies on the microeconometric analysis of a homogeneous dataset of sixteen Latin American and Caribbean countries to analyze the magnitude and determinants of the productivity gap between large and SME firms and to simulate of the impact on productivity of various policy scenarios. |
| Keywords: | SMEs, SME policy, productivity, Latin America |
| JEL: | D24 L53 L60 O38 O54 |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4486&r=dev |
| By: | Maëlys de la Rupelle; Quheng Deng; Shi Li; Thomas Vendryes |
| Abstract: | Like most other developing countries, China experiences huge migration outflows from rural areas. Their most striking characteristic is a high geographical and temporal mobility. Rural migrants keep going back and forth between origin villages and destination areas. In this paper, we show that this temporary feature of migration can be linked to land rights insecurity. As village land ownership remains collective and as land use rights can be periodically reallocated, individual out-migration can result in deprivation of those rights. Moreover, the intensity of this insecurity varies according to the village-level management of land and the contractual status of land plots. We use these variations to identify the effect of land rights insecurity on migration behavior. Empirical results based on representative 2002 rural data demonstrate substantial impact. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2009-42&r=dev |
| By: | Vera Chiodi; Esteban Jaimovich; Gabriel Montes-Rojas |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the link between migration, remittances and productive assets accumulation for a panel of poor rural households in Mexico over the period 1997- 2006. In a context of financial markets imperfections, migration may act as a substitute for imperfect credit and insurance provision (through remittances from migrants) and, thus, exert a positive effect on investment. However, it may well be the case that remittances are channelled towards increasing consumption and leisure goods. Exploiting within family variation and an instrumental variable strategy, we show that migration indeed accelerates productive assets accumulation. Moreover, when we look at the effect of migration on consumption of non-productive assets (durable goods), we find instead a negative effect. Our results then suggest that poor rural families resort to migration as a way to mitigate constraints that prevent them from investing in productive assets. |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2009-41&r=dev |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra; Samantha Rawlings |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the sensitivity of the intergenerational transmission of health to exogenous changes in income, education and public health, changes that are often delivered by economic growth. It uses individual survey data on 2.24 million children born to 600000 mothers during 1970-2000 in 38 developing countries. These data are merged with macroeconomic data by country and birth cohort to create an unprecedentedly large sample of comparable data that exhibit massive variation in maternal and child health as well as in aggregate economic conditions. The country-level panel is exploited to control for aggregate shocks and trends in unobservables within countries, while a panel of children within mother is exploited to control for family-specific endowments and neighbourhood characteristics. Child health is indicated by infant survival and mother’s health by (relative) height. We find that improvements in mother’s education, income and public health provision that occur in the year of birth and the year before birth limit the degree to which child health is tied to family circumstance. The interaction (gradient) effects are, in general, most marked for shorter women suggesting that children are more likely to bear the penalty exerted by poor maternal health if they are conceived or born in adverse socio-economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational transmission, early life conditions, health, infant mortality, height, growth, income, education, public health, gene, environment, in utero |
| JEL: | O12 I12 |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:09/218&r=dev |
| By: | Raghav Gaiha; Katsushi S. Imai; Ganesh Thapa; Woojin Kang |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:0919&r=dev |
| By: | Lea, Nicholas; Hanmer, Lucia |
| Abstract: | This paper applies a growth diagnostics approach to identify the most binding constraints to private-sector growth in Malawi - a small, landlocked country in Southern Africa with one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world. The approach aims to identify the constraints (in terms of public policy, implementation, and investments) most binding on marginal investment, and therefore whose relaxation would have the largest impact on growth through the investment channel. The authors find that growth in Malawi has been primarily driven by the domestic multiplier effect from export revenues. The multiplier effect is particularly pronounced due to the high number of smallholder farmers, which produce Malawi’s main export crop, tobacco, and consequently results in the widespread and rapid transmission of agricultural export income. Furthermore, despite changes in the structure of agricultural production from estate to smallholder farming and liberalization of prices and finance, a longstanding relationship persists between exports in real domestic currency and overall gross domestic product. This central role of exports in creating domestic demand highlights the importance of the real exchange rate in Malawi’s growth story, which directly increases the strength of the export multiplier. The most pressing constraint to growth in Malawi continues to be the regime of exchange rate management. Despite good progress, there is compelling evidence that the rate is still substantially overvalued. Furthermore, it is also likely that the inflow of foreign aid - in excess of 50 percent of exports -contributes to the overvaluation through its large component of recurrent expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5097&r=dev |
| By: | Paci, Pierella; Revenga, Ana; Rijkers, Bob |
| Abstract: | Events of the past two years are a reminder that crises are a recurring phenomenon with deep and often protracted impacts on labor markets. This paper examines the challenges inherent in crafting policy responses, with particular attention to developing countries. It focuses on the potential tradeoffs between offsetting adverse short-term impacts and preserving incentives for economic recovery and future growth, and between protecting the most vulnerable and compensating those most immediately impacted. It also highlights how policymakers’ room for maneuver is constrained in crisis times by deteriorating fiscal space, limited institutional capacity, and mounting political pressures. Based on empirical evidence from previous crises, the paper asserts that taking a myopic and reactive approach may be costly and counterproductive. Instead, it advocates a more comprehensive approach, designed to build institutions - such as automatic stabilizers and safety nets - that can deliver a coordinated and coherent policy package. This approach will make crises catalysts for institutional changes and long-run growth. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Safety Nets and Transfers,Banks&Banking Reform,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5094&r=dev |
| By: | Datar, Gayatri; Del Carpio, Ximena; Hoffman, Vivian |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a rural household survey dataset collected in 2006 and 2008 to investigate the impact of a market-based land resettlement project in southern Malawi. The program provided a conditional cash and land transfer to poor families to relocate to larger plots of farm land. The average treatment effect of the program is estimated using a difference-in-difference matching technique based on propensity score matching; qualitative information complement the analysis to ensure unobservable characteristics do not bias the findings. As expected, the results show a significant effect on landholdings and agricultural production, with land size increasing and maize production increasing by more than 100 kilograms relative to the control. However, the impacts on food security and asset holdings were mixed. Households that relocated great distances had systematically lower impacts than those households that stayed within their district of origin because they had to adapt to unfamiliar agro-ecological, cultural, and market environments. Impacts also varied across gender of the household head; female-headed beneficiary households increased their productive and consumption assets significantly, while male-headed households increased their asset holdings less so. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics&Policies,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5093&r=dev |
| By: | Andersen, Lykke E.; Verner, Dorte |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the direct evidence of climate change in Bolivia during the past 60 years, and estimates how these changes have affected life expectancy and consumption levels for each of the 311 municipalities in Bolivia. Contrary to the predictions of most general circulation models, the evidence shows a consistent cooling trend of about 0.2°C per decade over all highland areas, slight and scattered evidence of warming in the lowlands, and no systematic changes in precipitation. The estimations indicate that the 1°C cooling experienced in the already cold highlands over the past five decades likely has reduced consumption possibilities by about 2-3 percent in these areas. Since the much richer population in the lowlands have benefitted slightly from recent climate change, the simulations suggest that recent climate change has contributed to an increase in inequality and poverty in Bolivia. Poor and indigenous peoples in the highlands are among the most severely affected populations. No statistically significant effect on life expectancy was found. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Science of Climate Change,Climate Change Economics,Global Environment Facility,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5092&r=dev |
| By: | Diop, Ndiame; Ben Abdallah, Nizar |
| Abstract: | With the global financial crisis hitting many countries, policymakers around the world have been weighing different countercyclical policies to support aggregate demand and restore growth. The analysis in this paper estimates a Structural Vector Error Correction model for Tunisia in order to identify the impact of fiscal policy shocks on real output. The authors find that public investment has a small impact on output in the short run but is an important medium-term growth-enhancing countercyclical instrument that has a robust impact on growth. Raising public investment by 1 dinar yields 0.12 dinar the first year, 0.30 dinar the second year, half a dinar the third year, and 1.08 dinars the sixth year. An increase in recurrent expenditure has a smaller but positive and persistent impact on real output. For Tunisia to obtain a larger short-term impact of public spending on output, procurement processes should be made faster and simpler. Finally, the analysis finds a countercyclical pattern of real public investment vis-à-vis real output and a relative rigidity/inelasticity of recurrent expenditures to output fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Economic Stabilization,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Investment and Investment Climate |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5087&r=dev |
| By: | Cull, Robert; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Morduch, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This paper describes important trade-offs that microfinance practitioners, donors, and regulators navigate. Drawing evidence from large, global surveys of microfinance institutions, the authors find a basic tension between meeting social goals and maximizing financial performance. For example, non-profit microfinance institutions make far smaller loans on average and serve more women as a fraction of customers than do commercialized microfinance banks, but their costs per dollar lent are also much higher. Potential trade-offs therefore arise when selecting contracting mechanisms, level of commercialization, rigor of regulation, and the extent of competition. Meaningful interventions in microfinance will require making deliberate choices - and thus embracing and weighing tradeoffs carefully. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Emerging Markets,Rural Finance |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5086&r=dev |
| By: | Baird, Sarah; Chirwa, Ephraim; McIntosh, Craig; Ozler, Berk |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer programs for schooling are effective in raising school enrollment and attendance. However, there is also reason to believe that such programs can affect other outcomes, such as the sexual behavior of their young beneficiaries. Zomba Cash Transfer Program is a randomized, ongoing conditional cash transfer intervention targeting young women in Malawi that provides incentives (in the form of school fees and cash transfers) to current schoolgirls and recent dropouts to stay in or return to school. An average offer of US$10/month conditional on satisfactory school attendance – plus direct payment of secondary school fees – led to significant declines in early marriage, teenage pregnancy, and self-reported sexual activity among program beneficiaries after just one year of program implementation. For program beneficiaries who were out of school at baseline, the probability of getting married and becoming pregnant declined by more than 40 percent and 30 percent, respectively. In addition, the incidence of the onset of sexual activity was 38 percent lower among all program beneficiaries than the control group. Overall, these results suggest that conditional cash transfer programs not only serve as useful tools for improving school attendance, but may also reduce sexual activity, teen pregnancy, and early marriage. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Adolescent Health,Education For All,Primary Education,Disease Control&Prevention |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5089&r=dev |
| By: | Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Thompson, Fraser |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of firm productivity and local industrial structure on firm entry and exit in Morocco between 1985 and 2001. There is strong evidence of productivity exerting a market-cleansing role. Less productive firms are found to be more likely to exit - and locations with more productive firms attract higher rates of new firm entry. The effect of productivity operates not only in an absolute sense; a firm’s relative productivity or distance to the local sector frontier matters too. First, large productivity gaps are associated with higher rates of exit, while new firms are attracted to locations with small productivity gaps. Second, local competition increases the probability of exit, although it does not encourage entry. Third, there is evidence of scale or agglomeration effects that increase firm turnover. Fourth, measures of sector diversity are not associated with lower turnover. Fifth, the geographic level at which agglomeration and competition effects are defined matters differently for exit than entry. For exit, the provincial measures are strong, while those for communes are weaker. For entry, it is the local productivity at the commune level that is more significant. This implies that competitive pressures are less geographically constrained while the potential benefits of agglomeration and spill-overs are indeed more local. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Knowledge for Development,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5106&r=dev |
| By: | Um, Paul Noumba; Straub, Stephane; Vellutini, Charles |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure on growth of total factor productivity and per capita income, using both growth accounting techniques and cross-country growth regressions. The two econometric techniques yield some consistent and some different results. Regressions based in the growth accounting framework suggest that electricity production helps explain cross-country differences in total factor productivity growth in the Middle East and North Africa region. Growth regressions support that conclusion, while also stressing an effect of telecommunications infrastructure. Finally, growth regressions also indicate quite consistently that the returns to infrastructure have been lower in the Middle East and North Africa region than in developing countries as a whole. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Growth,E-Business,Energy Production and Transportation |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5105&r=dev |
| By: | De Rosa, Donato; Madzarevic-Sujster, Sanja; Boromisa, Ana-Maria; Sonje, Velimir |
| Abstract: | This paper examines product market policies in Croatia by benchmarking them to OECD countries and highlighting how policies that are more conducive to competition would stimulate a more efficient allocation of resources and, in consequence, facilitate convergence to higher income levels. OECD indicators of overall regulation in product markets indicate that Croatia’s policies in 2007 were generally more restrictive of competition than were the policies in OECD countries. This is especially true for policies concerned with the degree of state control of the economy and with barriers to entrepreneurship. Regulatory obstacles to trade and foreign direct investment, by contrast, are in line with those of pre-accession EuropeanUnion countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic, and Poland in 2003, as well as Bulgaria and Romania in 2006), albeit well above the OECD average. Regulation of post, electricity, gas, telecoms, air, rail, and road transport, as estimated by the OECD energy transport and communication sectors indicator, is also less liberal than in the OECD, highlighting the positive knock-on effects for the rest of the economy that could derive from further liberalization of network industries. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Public Sector Regulation,Markets and Market Access,Regulatory Regimes,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5100&r=dev |
| By: | Hallward-Driemeier, Mary; Thompson, Fraser |
| Abstract: | How important is firm turnover to national productivity growth? The literature points to the contribution of creative destruction being strongest in more developed countries or where market institutions are strongest. This paper looks at the case of Morocco, spanning 16 years, during which reform initiatives aiming to strengthen market forces were introduced. The paper argues that it is important to take into account i) the timing of how decompositions are structured (capturing the effects of high growth among young firms as part of the benefit of increased entry) and ii) the additional indirect impacts of firm dynamics on agglomeration externalities and competition. The paper shows there are striking differences in the productivity paths of entering and exiting firms compared with incumbents, and that restricting the time horizon of productivity decompositions to the actual year of entry or exit underestimates the productivity effects of turnover. Although it has been hypothesized that conducting decompositions over longer horizons would increase the positive contribution of net turnover, this is not the case in Morocco as losses from exiting firms rise too. Nor has the net contribution of turnover increased with market reforms; if anything, the contribution has declined over time. But the allocation of resources has improved. Both technical and allocative efficiency have risen since the mid-1990s. The paper also shows that firm turnover affects productivity through additional channels. It is closely correlated with measures of agglomeration that are associated with higher rates of exit among unproductive firms, and turnover itself is positively associated with subsequent productivity growth of incumbents. |
| Keywords: | Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Markets,Microfinance,E-Business |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5085&r=dev |
| By: | Andersen, Lykke E.; Suxo, Addy; Verner, Dorte |
| Abstract: | This paper uses district level data to estimate the general relationship between climate, income and life expectancy in Peru. The analysis finds that both incomes and life expectancy show hump-shaped relationships, with optimal average annual temperatures around 18-20ºC. These estimated relationships were used to simulate the likely effects of both past (1958-2008) and future (2008-2058) climate change. At the aggregate level, future climate change in Peru is estimated to cause a small reduction in average life expectancy of about 0.2 years. This average, however, hides much larger losses in the already hot areas as well as substantial gains in currently cold areas. Similarly, the average impact on incomes is a modest reduction of 2.3 percent, but with some districts experiencing losses of up to 20 percent and others gains of up to 13 percent. Future climate change is estimated to cause an increase in poverty (all other things equal), but to have no significant effect on the distribution of incomes. |
| Keywords: | Science of Climate Change,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Population Policies,Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5091&r=dev |
| By: | Hallward-Driemeier, Mary |
| Abstract: | Size, age, sector, and productivity are commonly cited as factors determining a firm’s survival. However, there are several dimensions of the investment climate in which the firm operates that affect whether it continues in business or exits. This paper uses new panel data from 27 Eastern European and Central Asian countries to test the importance of five areas of the business climate on firm exit: the efficiency of government services, access to finance, the extent of corruption or cronyism, the strength of property rights, and the degree of competition. The paper finds that weaknesses in these areas do affect the probability of firm exit – largely in ways that undermine the Schumpeterian cleansing role of exit in raising overall productivity. Greater costs and regulatory burdens raise the probability that more productive firms exit, while less developed financial and legal institutions mitigate forces that would otherwise push less productive firms to exit. Thus, the more productive firms stand to gain the most from improvements in the investment climate, whether that is lowering transaction costs or improving market mechanisms. This holds both within countries and across countries. The impact of a particular investment climate measure can also differ significantly by type of firm, with the focus given to firm size. The differential impact on size can be significant at a size cutoff of 10 or more employees. As these are the firms that are near the threshold of many regulatory requirements, the implications are not just with regard to whether a firm remains in operation, but whether it does so in the formal sector. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Debt Markets,Environmental Economics&Policies,Microfinance,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5084&r=dev |
| By: | Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys; Tinajero, Monica |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the analysis of spatial poverty in Ecuador by deepening the understanding of the constraints faced by the poor in the country through an investigation of the role of portable characteristics (human capital) and geography in explaining welfare. At the national level, the results indicate that these characteristics explain 72 percent of the differences in welfare level between urban and rural areas, while returns to these characteristics account for 28 percent of the difference. Comparing a leading and a lagging region, such as the coast versus the Amazon, the characteristics explain about 90 percent of the welfare differential in urban areas, while the returns explain about 30 percent of the welfare differential in rural areas. Among the characteristics analyzed, education is the most important variable for explaining differences in living conditions between urban and rural areas in Ecuador. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Regional Economic Development,Population Policies,Poverty Lines |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5104&r=dev |
| By: | Mu, Ren; van de Walle, Dominique |
| Abstract: | The transformation of work during China’s rapid economic development is associated with a substantial but little noticed re-allocation of traditional farm labor among women, with some doing much less and some much more. This paper studies how the work, time allocation, and health of non-migrant women are affected by the out-migration of others in their household. The analysis finds that the women left behind are doing more farm work than would have otherwise been the case. There is also evidence that this is a persistent effect, and not just temporary re-allocation. For some types of women (notably older women), the labor re-allocation response comes out of their leisure. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Gender and Development,Anthropology,Population&Development |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5107&r=dev |
| By: | Easterly, William; Reshef, Ariell; Schwenkenberg, Julia |
| Abstract: | The authors systematically document remarkably high degrees of concentration in manufacturing exports for a sample of 151 countries over a range of 3,000 products. For every country manufacturing exports are dominated by a few"big hits"which account for most of the export value and where the"hit"includes both finding the right product and finding the right market. Higher export volumes are associated with higher degrees of concentration, after controlling for the number of destinations a country penetrates. This further highlights the importance of big hits. The distribution of exports closely follows a power law, especially in the upper tail. These findings do not support a"picking winners"policy for export development; the power law characterization implies that the chance of picking a winner diminishes exponentially with the degree of success. Moreover, given the size of the economy, developing countries are more exposed to demand shocks than rich ones, which further lowers the benefits from trying to pick winners. |
| Keywords: | Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Markets,Airports and Air Services,Tax Law |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5081&r=dev |
| By: | V. Chandra; Osorio-Rodarte , I.; Braga, C. A. Primo |
| Abstract: | This paper tests a neo-Schumpeterian model with industry-level data to analyze how Brazil, India, and China are catching up with South Korea’s technological frontier in a globalized world. The paper validates Aghion et al.’s inverted-U hypothesis that industries that are closer to the technological frontier innovate to escape competition while longer distances discourage innovating. It suggests that for effective catching up, distance-shortening (or innovation-enhancing) policies may be a necessary complement to liberalization. South Korea and China combined a variety of distance-shortening policies with financial subsidies to promote high tech industries and an export-led growth strategy. Post-liberalization, they leveraged swift competition to spur catch-up. In comparison, Brazil, which was as rich as South Korea, and India, which was as rich as China in 1980, are catching up more slowly. Import-substitution industrialization strategies saddled Brazil and India with a large anti-export bias, and unfocused attention to innovation-enhancing policies dampened global competitiveness. Post liberalization, many of their industries were too far behind the technological frontier to effectively benefit from competition. The catch-up experiences of Brazil, India, and China with South Korea illustrate that distance from the technological frontier matters and that the design of country-specific distance- shortening policies can be an important complement to trade liberalization in promoting catching up with richer countries. |
| Keywords: | Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Water and Industry,E-Business,Knowledge for Development |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5101&r=dev |
| By: | Anas, Alex; Timilsina, Govinda R. |
| Abstract: | This study examines impacts on net social benefits or economic welfare of alternative policy instruments for reducing traffic congestion and atmospheric emissions in São Paulo, Brazil. The study shows that expanding road networks, subsidizing public transit, and improving automobile fuel economy may not be as effective as suggested by economic theories because these policies could cause significant rebound effects. Although pricing instruments such as congestion tolls and fuel taxes would certainly reduce congestion and emissions, the optimal level of these instruments would steeply increase the monetary cost of travel per trip and are therefore politically difficult to implement. However, a noticeable finding is that even smaller tolls, which are more likely to be politically acceptable, have substantial benefits in terms of reducing congestion and emissions. Among the various policy instruments examined in the study, the most socially preferable policy option for São Paulo would be to introduce a mix of congestion toll and fuel taxes on automobiles and use the revenues to improve public transit systems. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Economics,Roads&Highways,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Transport and Environment |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5099&r=dev |
| By: | Datt, Gaurav; Ravallion, Martin |
| Abstract: | The extent to which India's poor have benefited from the country’s economic growth has long been debated. This paper revisits the issues using a new series of consumption-based poverty measures spanning 50 years, and including a 15-year period after economic reforms began in earnest in the early 1990s. Growth has tended to reduce poverty, including in the post-reform period. There is no robust evidence that the responsiveness of poverty to growth has increased, or decreased, since the reforms began, although there are signs of rising inequality. The impact of growth is higher for poverty measures that reflect distribution below the poverty line, and it is higher using growth rates calculated from household surveys than national accounts. The urban-rural pattern of growth matters to the pace of poverty reduction. However, in marked contrast to the pre-reform period, the post-reform process of urban economic growth has brought significant gains to the rural poor as well as the urban poor. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Achieving Shared Growth,Services&Transfers to Poor,Inequality |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5103&r=dev |
| By: | Baird, Sarah; McIntosh, Craig; Ozler, Berk |
| Abstract: | As of 2007, 29 developing countries had some type of conditional cash transfer program in place, with many others planning or piloting one. However, the evidence base needed by a government to decide how to design a new conditional cash transfer program is severely limited in a number of critical dimensions. This paper presents one-year schooling impacts from a conditional cash transfer experiment among teenage girls and young women in Malawi, which was designed to address these shortcomings: conditionality status, size of separate transfers to the schoolgirl and the parent, and village-level saturation of treatment were all independently randomized. The authors find that the program had large impacts on school attendance: the re-enrollment rate among those who had already dropped out of school before the start of the program increased by two and a half times and the dropout rate among those in school at baseline decreased from 11 to 6 percent. These impacts were, on average, similar in the conditional and the unconditional treatment arms. Although most schooling outcomes examined here were unresponsive to variation in the size of the transfer to the parents, higher transfers given directly to the schoolgirls were associated with significantly improved school attendance and progress - but only if the transfers were conditional on school attendance. There were no spillover effects within treatment communities after the first year of program implementation. Policymakers looking to design cost-effective cash transfer programs targeted toward young women should note the relative insensitivity of these short-term program impacts with respect to conditionality and total transfer size. |
| Keywords: | Education For All,Tertiary Education,Primary Education,Poverty Monitoring&Analysis,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2009–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5090&r=dev |
| By: | Kimhi, Ayal |
| Abstract: | The income inequality implications of land reform are examined for the case of Georgia using regression-based inequality decomposition techniques. An egalitarian land redistribution is likely to equalize per-capita income among farm households, implying that continuing the land reform process in Georgia is likely to benefit poorer households, relatively speaking. However, land fragmentation was found to be disequalizing, and therefore land market developments that enable plot consolidation are not less important for inequality than the land redistribution itself. Both landholdings and farm assets have favorable inequality implications not only through farm income but also through non-farm income, implying that these productive assets increase the economic opportunities of rural households in the non-farm sector as well, perhaps by easing borrowing constraints. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, land reform, inequality decomposition, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2009–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:huaedp:54159&r=dev |
| By: | Berdugo, Binyamin; Meir, Uri |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the role of education as a way of reducing private rent seeking activities and increasing output. In many underdeveloped economies, for most individuals, there is no private return to education. Nonetheless, according to this paper, governments are better off by investing in public education. We view education as a means to build personal character, thereby affecting macroeconomic long run equilibrium by reducing the number of individuals who are engaged in private rentseeking activities. We show that education is more efficient than ordinary law enforcement because it has a long-run effect. The policy implication of this result is that even when education does not increase human capital, compulsory schooling will be beneficial in pulling underdeveloped economies out of poverty. |
| Keywords: | Rent Seeking; Decency; Education; Growth |
| JEL: | O10 A20 O43 I21 |
| Date: | 2009–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:18369&r=dev |
| By: | Prado C. Alfaiate, Jorge |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effect of a sequence of natural disasters on children’s health that hit Mozambique at the start of the 21st Century. The disasters in question were the floods of 2000 and the droughts of the years 2002 and 2003. Height-for-age z-scores of children between 1 and 3 years old is used to capture the cumulative effects of this sequence of natural disasters. It was found that the effect of the disasters on these children’s height was, on average, -0.4236 standard deviations, which corresponds to the affected children being more than 1.5 cm shorter by the time of the survey. The findings in this paper are important because of the long term economic cost associated with the disasters, and urge the need for further public intervention to mitigate the damage caused by the shocks. This paper also contributes to the existing literature on the subject of the impact of shocks on child health in the developing world by focusing on measurement errors, differences in physical stature among ethnic groups and migratory movements. |
| Keywords: | Mozambique; Health; Natural Disaster; Human Capital; Developing Country |
| JEL: | O1 O12 |
| Date: | 2009–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:18189&r=dev |