|
on Development |
| By: | Francesca Marchetta (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche) |
| Abstract: | Environmental changes affect the livelihood of the rural population. This is especially true for those households who mainly rely on farming for their subsistence. In Northern Ghana, during the last two decades, soil erosion, the increasing unpredictability of the rains and the raise in the population size - with the ensuing pressure on the land - contributed to make people even more vulnerable to environmental conditions. These factors - together with the adverse market conditions for the local produce and the neglect of the region in the design of adjustment policies - pushed rural population towards income generating activities alternative to farming (i.e. migration and non farm activities). In this paper, we use a multivariate analysis to explore the determinants of income diversification from a household perspective. We find that non agricultural activities represent an option that better-off households - and communities - can resort to, in order to overcome the difficulties of the agricultural sector; while out-rural seasonal migration is emerging as a coping strategy adopted by poor households to meet their basic needs, and it is unlikely to improve their socioeconomic condition in the long run. |
| Keywords: | income diversification, poverty, inequality, migration |
| JEL: | I32 O15 O55 Q12 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2008_16.rdf&r=dev |
| By: | Epstein, Gil S.; Gang, Ira N. |
| Abstract: | Countries compete with one another for funds distributed by nongovernment organizations (NGOs). We examine the competition over poverty and governance conducted by a NGO in the allocation of its funds among potential recipient countries. The NGO in its decisionmaking process also takes in-Date account the initial conditions of each potential recipient, including the current quality of governance and wealth (poverty). For example, all else equal, the poorer country will have a higher probability of obtaining funds; or, the better the applicant?s governance, the greater are its gains. Moreover, the maximum aid a country can obtain depends on its wealth. Investment in good governance, the wealth/poverty status of the applicant, and its current quality of governance will in conjunction determine the funds potential recipients can expect -Date obtain. We also consider recent changes in the levels of these fac-Daters in our attempt -Date understand the roles these fac-Daters play in the competition for aid, and the outcome for the quality of governance. |
| Keywords: | nongovernment organizations, NGOs, aid, competition |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-76&r=dev |
| By: | Nayyar, Deepak |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts -Date analyse the economic implications of the rise of China, India, Brazil and South Africa, for developing countries situated in the wider context of the world economy. It examines the possible impact of their rapid growth on industrialized countries and developing countries, which could be complementary or competitive and, on balance, positive or negative. In doing so, it considers the main channels of transmission, -Date focus on international trade, investment, finance and migration. The essential question is whether, in times -Date come, these four countries could be the new engines of growth for the world economy. The answer is that rapid growth in China already supports growth elsewhere, so far primarily as a market for exports, while India and Brazil have the potential -Date provide similar support, but South Africa does not yet exhibit such a potential. In future, these countries could also provide resources for investment and technologies for productivity. The transformation and catch-up could span half a century or longer. Even so, rapid growth in these large emerging economies is already beginning -Date change the balance of economic power in the world. |
| Keywords: | China, India, Brazil, South Africa, growth, development, his-Datery, trade, investment, finance, migration |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2008-05&r=dev |
| By: | Bezuidenhout, Henri; Naude, Wim |
| Abstract: | We use a modified gravity model -Date estimate the relationship between trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). We find evidence of a significant causal relationship Date SADC?s exports -Date inward FDI. Distance (reflecting remoteness and transport costs) and political instability are confirmed -Date be significant determinants of FDI -Date SADC. We discern differences in the patterns and determinants of FDI -Date SADC, whether it is Date the USA and UK or Date continental Europe. In the case of FDI -Date SADC Date the USA and UK, it is exports Date SADC -Date these countries that are significant, and not imports, while, in the case of continental Europe, both exports and imports are significantly associated with FDI -Date SADC. |
| Keywords: | FDI, SADC, South Africa, exports, gravity model |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-88&r=dev |
| By: | Chaponniere, Jean-Raphael; Cling, Jean-Pierre; Zhou, Bin |
| Abstract: | Vietnam has been following China?s path closely and very successfully for the last two decades, since the adoption of ?Doi moi? in 1986. Over those last two decades, economic growth rates in both countries have been the highest worldwide (with GDP growing by 8 per cent and 10 per cent per year, respectively). The increase of the Vietnamese share of world trade is the highest of all major Asian exporters (including China) since the mid-1990s. In the current international context, doubts have been raised by some economists concerning the possibility for new Asian countries -Date take-off and join the group of emerging countries. Several obstacles might block this emergence, such as the rise of China and the stringent rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper addresses this question with regard -Date Vietnam, who joined the WTO at the beginning of 2007: we study Vietnam?s potential for sustainable growth and international integration. We start by briefly describing economic reform and trade policies in Vietnam, and their results in terms of economic growth and world integration. We then analyse Vietnamese trade specialization and the bilateral relationship with China. Finally, we assess the competition between Vietnam and China on world markets, and show that the export structures are very different. Both countries have benefited Date a boom in their textile and clothing exports following the cessation of quotas (in the case of China) and the signing of USBTA (in the case of Vietnam). For Vietnam, reducing the specialization in textiles and clothing, and joining the Asian production network in electronics, represents a major challenge. |
| Keywords: | export-led growth, WTO, Vietnam, China |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-84&r=dev |
| By: | Nazmi, Nader; Revilla, Julio E. |
| Abstract: | We compare economic efficiencies in Brazil, India, and China, where economic efficiency measures the gap between potential and actual output for a given input combination and technological fac-Dater. We use s-Datechastic production frontier models -Date measure the contributions of fac-Daters of production and technology -Date growth and estimate non-positive error terms that capture production inefficiencies in each country. The results suggest that China and India had relatively inefficient production in the early 1980s but have since improved production efficiency substantially. In the same period, production efficiency in Brazil has declined somewhat Date relatively high initial levels and the gap between production efficiency between these countries has narrowed substantially, supporting more rapid growth in China and India relative -Date Brazil. |
| Keywords: | growth, trade, production |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-86&r=dev |
| By: | Aiyar, Shekhar; Berg, Andrew; Hussain, Mumtaz |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the macroeconomic challenges created by a surge in aid inflows. It develops an analytical framework for examining possible policy responses -Date increased aid, in terms of absorption and spending of aid?where the central bank controls absorption through monetary policy and the sale of foreign exchange and the fiscal authority controls spending. Different combinations of absorption and spending lead -Date different macroeconomic consequences. Evidence Date five countries that recently experienced an aid surge (Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, Mozambique and Uganda) shows no support for aid-related real exchange rate appreciation in these countries, but indicates that the fear of Dutch disease played an important part in the policy reaction -Date aid surges. Fiscal and monetary authorities should coordinate their responses -Date an aid surge, because an uncoordinated response?typically when fiscal authority wants -Date spend aid while the central bank wants -Date avoid exchange rate appreciation?can have serious negative macroeconomic consequences. |
| Keywords: | aid, exchange rate, aid absorption, policy |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-79&r=dev |
| By: | Desai, Meghnad |
| Abstract: | This article views the four economies of the South in a long run his-Daterical perspective of 1500-2000. It contrasts the his-Datery and the initial endowments of the two Northern hemisphere economies China and India which are land scarce and labour abundant with the two Southern hemisphere economies Brazil and South Africa which are land abundant and labour scarce. It argues for different strategies for future growth and discusses impediments which may come in the paths of these four economies in the near future. |
| Keywords: | China, India, Brazil, South Africa, development, his-Datery |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2008-02&r=dev |
| By: | Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina N.; Mavrotas, George |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of institutional quality and social capital on aid effectiveness. We find strong evidence that social capital and institutions enhance aid effectiveness. Moreover, once we account for the role of social capital and institutions, the impact of policies tend -Date disappear. These findings have important policy implications as they indicate that conditioning aid allocation on ?good policies? may not lead -Date an optimal (or fair) allocation of aid, as countries with high social capital at the macro level could actually make good use of aid regardless of the quality of policy. This casts doubt on the conclusions in Burnside and Dollar (2000) and the policy lessons derived Date their findings. |
| Keywords: | aid effectiveness, social capital, institutions, growth |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-75&r=dev |
| By: | Cohen, Daniel; Jacquet, Pierre; Reisen, Helmut |
| Abstract: | We argue in this paper that cancelling the debt of the poorest countries was a good thing, but that it should not imply that the debt instrument should be foregone. Debt and debt cancellations are indeed two complementary instruments which, if properly managed, perform better than either loans or grants taken in isolation. The core of the intuition, which we develop in a simple two-period model, relates to the fact that the poorest countries are also the most volatile, so that contingent facilities, explicitly incorporating debt cancellation mechanisms, are a valuable instrument. |
| Keywords: | grants, loans, developing countries |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2007-06&r=dev |
| By: | Cornia, Giovanni Andrea; Rosignoli, Stefano; Tiberti, Luca |
| Abstract: | The last two decades of the twentieth century recorded a slowdown in health gains and widespread increases in health inequality across and within countries. The paper explores the causes of such trends on the basis of five main mortality models. To do so, it regresses IMR/LEB on 15 determinants of health. The results underscore the negative health effects of the trends observed between 1980-2000, such as rising inequality, greater income volatility, declining health expenditure, increasing migration and so on. Finally, the paper simulates the level of LEB that would have been achieved in ten regions of the world if the determinants of health had continued developing over these decades as they did over 1960-80. The results indicate that in seven of such regions (including China and India) LEB would have been higher than actually observed. In this regard, the paper raises doubts about the way globalization has taken place and the way public policy oriented it. |
| Keywords: | health status, health inequalities, globalization |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-74&r=dev |
| By: | Murshed, S. Mansoob |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses three issues in strategic donor-recipient interaction motivated by the complexity of the rationale underlying aid. The first is when we have several principals with conflicting objectives. Any one principal cannot offer high powered incentives -Date the agent -Date carry out their designated task. The second is -Date do with the fact that effort associated with ensuring aid effectiveness may concern both principal and agent; the optimal solution -Date which requires difficult -Date design cooperative behaviour. Consequently, the contractual type principal-agent relationship between donors and recipients is inappropriate. We need -Date consider models that signal recipient quality or commitment -Date reform. A simple model of signalling with commitment problems is presented, along with extensions -Date multiple types of agents and time periods, as well as possible solutions involving mechanism design. |
| Keywords: | aid, conditionality, contracting, signalling quality, mechanism design |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-71&r=dev |
| By: | Zhang, Yuan; Wan, Guanghua |
| Abstract: | There are alternative definitions of vulnerability -Date poverty. Most researchers prefer -Date define vulnerability as the probability of a household or individual falling in-Date poverty in the future. Based on this definition and using household survey panel data Date rural China, this paper attempt -Date assess the extent -Date which we can measure vulnerability -Date poverty. The assessment is based on comparisons between predicted vulnerability and actually observed poverty. We find that the precision of prediction, first, varies depending on the vulnerability line; our results suggest setting the line at 50 per cent in order -Date improve predictive power. Second, precision depends on how permanent income is estimated. Assuming log-normal distribution of income, it is preferable -Date use past weighted average income as an estimate of permanent income rather than using regressions -Date gage permanent income. And third, prediction precision depends on the chosen poverty line. More accurate measurement of vulnerability -Date poverty is obtained with a higher poverty line of US$2 instead of US$1. |
| Keywords: | vulnerability, poverty, permanent income, transi-Datery income |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-82&r=dev |
| By: | Arbache, Jorge Saba; Page, John |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the country-level dynamics of long-run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. We are primarily interested in examining how growth has affected mobility and the distribution of income among countries. We analyse changes in the cross-country income structure and convergence. We also look for evidence of the formation of country groups or ?clubs?. Finally, we use a novel method of breaking up the growth his-Dateries of African economies in-Date medium term spells of growth accelerations and declines -Date see if a group of African ?leopards??the regional equivalent of Asia?s ?tigers??is beginning -Date emerge. |
| Keywords: | GDP per capita, growth, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-80&r=dev |
| By: | Chauvet, Lisa; Guillaumont, Patrick |
| Abstract: | In previous papers we have argued that aid is likely -Date mitigate the negative effects of external shocks on economic growth (i.e., aid is more effective in countries that are more vulnerable -Date external shocks). Recently an important debate has emerged about the possible negative effects of aid volatility itself. However, the cushioning effect of aid may involve some volatility in aid flows, which then is not necessarily negative for growth. In this paper we examine -Date what extent the time profile of aid disbursements may contribute -Date an increase or a decrease of aid effectiveness. We first show that aid, even if volatile, is not clearly as procyclical as often argued, and, even if procyclical, is not necessarily destabilizing. We measure aid volatility by several methods and assess procyclicality of aid with respect -Date exports, thus departing Date previous literature, which usually assesses procyclicality of aid with respect -Date national income or fiscal receipts. The stabilizing/destabilizing nature of aid is measured by the difference in the volatility of exports and the volatility of the aid plus exports flows. Then, in order -Date take in-Date account the diversity of shocks -Date which aid can respond, we consider the effect of aid on income volatility and again find that aid is making growth more stable, while its volatility reduces this effect. Finally, we find evidence through growth regressions that the higher effectiveness of aid in vulnerable countries is -Date a large extent due -Date its stabilizing effect. |
| Keywords: | aid, shocks, stability, growth |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-78&r=dev |
| By: | Sen, Kunal |
| Abstract: | The Indian economy has observed significant trade reforms since the mid 1980s, and the Indian manufacturing sec-Dater has rapidly increased its integration with the world economy. In this paper, we ask the question: did the increased trade integration create or destroy jobs in the Indian manufacturing sec-Dater? We attempt -Date answer this question by employing a variety of methodological approaches ? fac-Dater content, growth accounting and econometric modelling. We also compare India?s employment outcomes with four other countries ? Bangladesh, Kenya, South Africa, and Vietnam ? where similar methodological approaches were used. We find that the impact of international trade on manufacturing employment seems -Date be similar -Date those found for the two African countries ? Kenya and South Africa ? rather than the two Asian countries ? Bangladesh and Vietnam. Thus, the overall effect of international trade on manufacturing employment has been minimal, a surprising result for a country with an apparent comparative advantage in labour-intensive manufacturing goods, and a large excess supply of unskilled labour. |
| Keywords: | international trade, manufacturing, employment, India |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-87&r=dev |
| By: | Davies, James B.; Sandstrom, Susanna; Shorrocks, Anthony; Wolff, Edward N. |
| Abstract: | There has been much recent research on the world distribution of income, but also growing recognition of the importance of other contributions -Date well-being, including those of household wealth. Wealth is important in providing security and opportunity, particularly in poorer countries that lack full social safety nets and adequate facilities for borrowing and lending. We find, however, that it is precisely in the latter countries where household wealth is the lowest, both in absolute and relative terms. Globally, wealth is more concentrated than income both on an individual and national basis. Roughly 30 per cent of world wealth is found in each of North America, Europe, and the rich Asian-Pacific countries. These areas account for virtually all of the world?s -Datep 1 per cent of wealth holders. On an official exchange rate basis India accounts for about a quarter of the adults in the bot-Datem three global wealth deciles while China provides about a third of those in the fourth -Date eighth deciles. If current growth trends continue, India, China and the transition countries will move up in the global distribution, and the lower deciles will be increasingly dominated by countries in Africa, Latin American and poor parts of the Asian-Pacific region. Thus wealth may continue -Date be lowest in areas where it is needed the most. |
| Keywords: | wealth, net worth, personal assets, wealth inequality, households, balance sheets, portfolios |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2008-03&r=dev |
| By: | van Doorslaer, Eddy; O'Donnell, Owen |
| Abstract: | This paper describes approaches -Date the measurement and explanation of income-related inequality and inequity in health care financing, health care utilization and health and considers the applicability and the feasibility of these methods in low-income countries. Results Date a comparative study of 14 Asian countries are used -Date illustrate the main issues. The structure of health finance in low-income countries, in particular the heavy reliance on out-of-pocket payments, means that the equity issues in finance are quite different Date those of concern in high-income countries. Primary concern is not with the distribution of contributions -Date pre-payment mechanisms but with the deterrent effect of payments on utilization and the distribution of uninsured payment risks. Measurement of inequity in utilization of health care in low-income countries is constrained by the lack of reliable measures of health that can be used -Date standardize for need. Nonetheless, sufficient is known of the distribution of need in many circumstances in order -Date make inferences about equity Date inequality in health care use. The empirical analyses demonstrate that, in low-income countries, the better-off tend -Date pay more for health care, both absolutely and in relative terms. But they also consume more health care. Health care is financed is largely according -Date the benefit principle. Assessing the distributional performance of health systems in low-income settings therefore requires examination of finance and utilization simultaneously. |
| Keywords: | health inequality, equity |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:dp2008-04&r=dev |
| By: | Gottschalk, Ricardo; Azevedo Sodre, Cecilia |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the implications of the liberalization of capital outflows in China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) for other developing countries. It focuses on their prospects of attracting not only foreign direct investment (FDI), but also portfolio capital flows Date CIBS. To inform the discussion, two steps are taken: first, in order -Date identify the type of capital flows that might come Date CIBS, the paper briefly describes capital account liberalization measures undertaken by CIBS -Date date and future intended liberalization. Second, it maps geographic distribution of outward FDI and foreign portfolio investment in the recent past, which are taken as possible predic-Daters of future flows. The paper shows that portfolio investment goes mainly -Date OECD countries and offshore financial centres, and only a small share -Date developing countries. But, within developing countries, CIBS? neighbouring countries have shown a greater ability -Date attract this type of investment, compared with other developing countries. |
| Keywords: | capital account liberalization, FDI, portfolio capital flows, south?south capital flows, developing countries |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-68&r=dev |
| By: | Bruck, Tilman; Schindler, Kati |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the transmission channels through which mass violent conflict and post-conflict fragility affect households. It does so by pointing out how a fragile environment impairs a household?s core functions, boundaries, and its choice of income generating activities. Furthermore, it proposes a -Dateol -Date analyse the impact of conflict and fragility on groups of households. The paper advances our understanding of mass violent conflict and fragility and contributes -Date the literature on the economics of conflict and development in three ways: first, it identifies the important gaps in the current micro level literature on conflict. Second, it provides a consistent and systematic framework -Date address these gaps. Third, it applies the framework -Date war widows, one example of a conflict affected and often forgotten group that typically amounts -Date a large population share in post-conflict societies. |
| Keywords: | violent conflict, poverty, widows, households |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-83&r=dev |
| By: | Carlos Medina; Leonardo Morales; Jairo Nuñez |
| Abstract: | We use data from Bogotá and Medellín to describe key quality of life indicators of each city and illustrate their spatial segregation at the census sector level and present evidence that the main two Colombian cities are highly spatially segregated according to their education levels and access to education, coverage of public services, households headed by women and key demographic variables like their levels of adolescent pregnancy. Not surprisingly, our estimated quality of life indexes resemble the mentioned segregation patterns in each city. We present evidence that the spatial agglomeration is statistically significant for each of the variables enumerated. We estimate hedonic models of house values and life satisfaction for Bogotá and Medellín and find that the importance of the average level of education at the census sector level to determine house prices is striking. We also compare hedonic models for Bogotá and Medellín. Bogotá is better endowed than Medellín in the variables included in the analysis, in particular, it has higher education levels, and additionally, education is more equally distributed within census sectors. Bogotá has also better access to gas, and has in general houses with better conditions. The models based on house values and life satisfaction approaches used in this article lead to similar conclusions in the aggregate when comparing their implied quality of life indexes. Although each approach allows us to rank the specific determinants of quality of life, and these determinant depend on the approach, their implied aggregated indexes suggest that they are just different faces of the same story. From a policy perspective, the evidence suggests that redesigning the current socioeconomic stratification system in a way that still allows reaching the poorest while preventing segregation to deepen, might be among the most important challenge to face in order to improve quality of life in main Colombian cities. |
| Date: | 2008–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:005126&r=dev |
| By: | Daniel Mejía; María Teresa Ramírez; Jorge Tamayo |
| Abstract: | The demographic transition from high to low mortality and fertility rates was one of the most important structural changes during the twentieth Century in most Latin American economies. This paper uses a simple economic framework based on Galor and Weil (2000) for understanding the main forces behind this structural transition; namely, increases in the returns to human capital accumulation driven by continuous advances in productivity led families to reduce the number of offspring and increase the level of investment in their education. As a result, the economy transits from a stage of stagnation subject to Malthusian forces to a stage of sustained economic growth, where increases in productivity lead to improvements in living standards. We use available data for Colombia between 1905 and 2005 to test the main predictions of the model with time series analysis, finding empirical evidence in their favor. |
| Date: | 2008–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:005128&r=dev |
| By: | Ravallion, Martin |
| Abstract: | While the 2008 financial crisis is global in nature, it is likely to have heterogeneous welfare impacts within the developing world, with some countries, and some people, more vulnerable than others. It also threatens to have lasting impacts for some of those affected, notably through the nutrition and schooling of children in poor families. These features point to the need for a differentiated social policy response, aiming to provide rapid income support to those in most need, while preserving the key physical and human assets of poor people and their communities. The paper points out some mistakes in past crisis responses and identifies key design features for safety net programs that can help compensate for the likely welfare losses in the short-term while also promoting longer-term recovery. |
| Keywords: | Safety Nets and Transfers,Rural Poverty Reduction,Services&Transfers to Poor,Achieving Shared Growth |
| Date: | 2008–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4763&r=dev |
| By: | Macours, Karen; Schady, Norbert; Vakis, Renos |
| Abstract: | A variety of theories of skill formation suggest that investments in schooling and other dimensions of human capital will have lower returns if children do not have adequate levels of cognitive and social skills at an early age. This paper analyzes the impact of a randomized cash transfer program on cognitive development in early childhood in rural Nicaragua. It shows that the program had significant effects on cognitive outcomes, especially language. Impacts are larger for older pre-school age children, who are also more likely to be delayed. The program increased intake of nutrient-rich foods, early stimulation, and use of preventive health care-all of which have been identified as risk factors for development in early childhood. Households increased expenditures on these inputs more than can be accounted for by the increases in cash income only, suggesting that the program changed parents'behavior. The findings suggest that gains in early childhood development outcomes should be taken into account when assessing the benefits of cash transfer programs in developing countries. More broadly, the paper illustrates that gains in early childhood development can result from interventions that facilitate investments made by parents to reduce risk factors for cognitive development. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Educational Sciences,Youth and Governance,Primary Education,Street Children |
| Date: | 2008–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4759&r=dev |
| By: | Schaeffer, Michael; Yilmaz, Serdar |
| Abstract: | In many developing and middle-income countries, decentralization reforms are promoting changes in governance structures that are reshaping the relationship between local governments and citizens. The success of these decentralization reforms depends on the existence of sound public financial systems both at the central and local levels. This paper focuses on the role of budgeting as a critical tool in reform efforts, highlighting problems that might impede successful local government budget development and implementation. The attainment of effective local government accountability and transparency is not an end itself, but rather it represents the means to support better decision-making on national and local budgeting. Community based schemes for enhancing local government accountability need to combine legal, political, and administrative mechanisms with proactive community involvement. Of particular importance are the legal and budgetary instruments that require input from local community members on certain local government decisions and instruments that increase accessibility for the press or the general public at large to information on government activities. |
| Keywords: | National Governance,Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management,Debt Markets,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Public Sector Economics&Finance |
| Date: | 2008–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4767&r=dev |
| By: | Pedrosa, Jose; Do, Quy-Toan |
| Abstract: | Distances involved in accessing basic services can constitute a major barrier to development. This paper analyzes the relationship between the distance separating households from microfinance institutions'offices in Niger, and the low levels of development and performance of the microfinance sector in the country. To cope with the effects of geographical distance, microfinance institutions adapt their policies through more restrictive loan conditions, higher interest rates, and more intensive screening. The authors to discuss the tension between access and sustainability in the context of financial services for the poor. |
| Date: | 2008–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4772&r=dev |
| By: | Beck, Thorsten; Klapper, Leora F.; Mendoza, Juan Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper presents data on 76 partial credit guarantee schemes across 46 developed and developing countries. Based on theory, the authors discuss different organizational features of credit guarantee schemes and their variation across countries. They focus on the respective role of government and the private sector and different pricing and risk reduction tools and how they are correlated across countries. The findings show that government has an important role to play in funding and management, but less so in risk assessment and recovery. There is a surprisingly low use of risk-based pricing and limited use of risk management mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2008–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4771&r=dev |
| By: | Lederman, Daniel; Maloney, William F. |
| Abstract: | The debate over the curse of natural resources has haunted developing countries for decades if not centuries. A review of existing empirical evidencesuggests that the curse remains elusive. The fragile negative effect of natural resources on economic growth might be due to international heterogeneity in the effects of natural resources on economic growth, to the use of weak indicators of natural resources that might be unrelated to relative natural-resource endowments, or to the inability of econometric analysis based on international data to capture historical processes. This paper defends an empirical proxy for relative abundance of natural resources, which is based on standard growth theory. In turn, various econometric estimations are hopelessly deployed in the search for the missing resource curse. Some evidence suggests that natural resources might have large positive effects whose true magnitude remains unknown due to unresolved econometric issues. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Growth,Achieving Shared Growth |
| Date: | 2008–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4766&r=dev |
| By: | Knack, Stephen |
| Abstract: | The availability of windfall revenues from natural resource exports or foreign aid potentially weakens governments'incentives to design efficient tax systems. Cross-country data for developing countries provide evidence for this hypothesis, using a World Bank indicator of"efficiency of revenue mobilization."Aid's negative effects on the quality of tax systems are robust to correcting for potential reverse causality, to changes in the sample, and to alternative estimation methods. Fuel export revenues are also associated with lower-quality tax policy and administration, but this finding is somewhat sensitive to outliers. Non-fuel resource exports, in contrast, show no relationship to the efficiency of revenue mobilization. |
| Date: | 2008–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4773&r=dev |
| By: | Dessus, Sebastien |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of commodity price inflation in Tanzania and possible tax policy responses in the short, medium, and long term. The results suggest that global commodity inflation since 2006 may have had a significantly negative impact on all Tanzanian households. Most of the negative impact comes from the rise in the price of oil. In contrast, food price spikes are potentially welfare improving for all Tanzanian households in the medium to long run. In comparison with nonpoor households, poor households in Tanzania may be relatively shielded from global commodity inflation because they derive a larger share of their incomes from agricultural activity and consume less oil-intensive products. Finally, the results suggest that tax policies encouraging greater agricultural production and consumption may help to reduce poverty. In contrast, policies discouraging agricultural production (such as export bans) bear the risk of increasing poverty in the long run. However, such policies would only effect at the margin (in one direction or the other) the likely impact of global commodity inflation on poverty. |
| Keywords: | Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2008–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4760&r=dev |
| By: | Douidich, Mohammed; Ezzrari, Abdeljouad; Lanjouw, Peter |
| Abstract: | The authors employ the recently completed"poverty map"for Morocco, referring to the year 2004, as a tool for an ex-ante evaluation of the distributional incidence of geographic targeting of public resources. They simulate the impact on poverty of transferring an exogenously given budget to geographically defined sub-groups of the population according to their relative poverty status. In both rural and urban areas, the findings reveal large gains from targeting smaller administrative units, such as communes or districts. However, these gains are still far from the poverty reduction that would be possible had the planners had access to information on household level income or consumption. The results indicate that a useful way forward might be to combine fine geographic targeting using a poverty map with within-community targeting mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Services&Transfers to Poor |
| Date: | 2008–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4724&r=dev |
| By: | Nicita, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Because of high mortality rates, high rates of contagion, and the possibility of cross-species infection to mammals including humans, high pathogenic avian influenza is a major concern both to consumers and producers of poultry. The implications of the avian influenza for international poultry markets are large and include the loss of consumer confidence, loss of competitiveness, loss of market shares, supply shortages, and disruptions of trade flows. This paper illustrates the effect that high pathogenic avian influenza has had on the trade flows of poultry products. The findings suggest that outbreaks of avian influenza have greatly restructured the international flow of poultry products. Consequent to high pathogenic avian influenze, Brazil has emerged as the world's largest supplier of frozen raw chicken products, while poultry industries in Southeast Asia have largely refocused their export markets by converting production from unprepared to prepared poultry meat. |
| Keywords: | Avian Flu,Livestock&Animal Husbandry,Markets and Market Access,Trade Law,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4551&r=dev |
| By: | McCulloch, Neil; Sjahrir, Bambang Suharnoko |
| Abstract: | Indonesia's"big bang"decentralization in 2001 shifted much of the responsibility for local economic development from central government to district and city governments, which today number more than 450. But the performance of these districts has varied widely. This paper attempts to understand the determinants of sub-national (district/city) growth in Indonesia and map how these determinants have changed since before the 1997/98 economic crisis. The authors exploit a rich dataset that includes a wide range of district-level characteristics, including education, population, cultural, economic, and infrastructure variables, as well as a set of variables relating to distance, to try to explain growth. The analysis finds that, after accounting for differences in other variables, poorer districts tend to grow faster than better off districts. Similarly, there is evidence of spatial divergence, in the sense that districts tend to grow faster if their neighbors are growing quickly. However, the quality of the existing district-level data makes it difficult to identify whether endowments or factors related to distance are systematically associated with growth. |
| Keywords: | Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,Nutrition |
| Date: | 2008–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4769&r=dev |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Alemu, Tekie |
| Abstract: | Although early attempts at land titling in Africa were often unsuccessful, the need to secure rights in view of increased demand for land, options for registration of a continuum of individual or communal rights under new laws, and the scope for reducing costs by combining information technology with participatory methods have led to renewed interest. This paper uses a difference-in-difference approach to assess economic impacts of a low-cost registration program in Ethiopia that, over 5 years, covered some 20 million parcels. Despite policy constraints, the program increased tenure security, land-related investment, and rental market participation and yielded benefits significantly above the cost of implementation. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics&Policies,Urban Housing,Climate Change,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2008–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4764&r=dev |
| By: | Iorgulescu, Raluca Ioana |
| Abstract: | This dissertation explores new directions in economic theory based on field research in two Igbo villages in Nigeria (Umuluwe - representative of traditional Igbo villages and Obigo - representative of suburban, more modern, Igbo villages). Results from Ultimatum and Dictator Games played in Umuluwe show the importance of cultural context in economic behavior (endogenous preferences). The importance of endogenous preferences, as opposed to concepts of Pareto efficiency and Potential Pareto Improvement. The information provided by the 2001 survey, regarding the age, ocupation, education, income, number of children, affiliation to different associations, and other data, allows us to compare the social-economic characteristics of the villagers in Umuluwe and Obigbo. The migration between Umuluwe and Obigbo is analysed. Young people from Umuluwe migrate to Obigbo in search of better employment and education opportunities while retired people from Obigbo return to Umuluwe. In addition to the human flows, the the income flows from Obigbo to Umuluwe reveal a symbiotic rural-suburban relationship between the two villages. As modernization changed the traditional socio-economic structure and institution, it also enhanced the role of the symbiotic relationship between the two villages in Igbo society within the traditonal cultural matrix (based on the patrilineal polygamous extended family). Based on the survey results, the labor market decision-making in the two villages is examined using a binary logit model. The occupational structure revealed for Umuluwe and Obigbo villages is analyzed in combination with personal characteristics, households demograhics, and economic conditions in the village of residence. This study allows us to conduct the discussion regarding the probability of an individual to have a paid occupation vs. a non-paid occupation at two levels: (1) decision-making of male vs. female villages and (2) decision-making of Umuluwe vs. Obigbo residents. The results are consistent with the traditional cultural and institutional pattern in Igbo society. |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:081102&r=dev |
| By: | Till Bärnighausen (Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal); David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa health worker shortages are one of the main constraints in achieving population health goals. Financial-incentive programmes for return of service, whereby participants receive payments in return for a commitment to practice for a period of time in a medically underserved area, can alleviate local and regional health worker shortages through two mechanisms. First, they can redirect the flow of those health workers who would have been educated without financial incentive from well-served to underserved areas. Second, they can add health workers to the pool of workers who would have been educated without financial incentives and place them in underserved areas. While financial-incentive programmes are an attractive option to increase the supply of health workers to medically underserved areas – they offer students who otherwise would not have the means to finance a health care education an opportunity to do so, establish legally enforceable commitments to work in underserved areas, and work without compulsion – these programmes may be difficult to implement. |
| Keywords: | Disease, control, global health, financial-incentive programs, Africa. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:3708&r=dev |
| By: | Till Bärnighausen (Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal); David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health); Salal Humair (School of Science and Engineering, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | Despite recent international efforts to increase antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage, more than 5 million people who need ART in developing countries do not receive such treatment. Shortages of human resources to treat HIV/AIDS (referred to herein as HRHA) are one of the main constraints to further scaling up ART. Planning expansion of ART depends on the ability to predict how many HRHA will be needed in the future. We investigate whether taking into account positive feedback from the current supply of HRHA to future HRHA need substantially alters predictions. This feedback occurs because an increase in the number of HRHA implies an increase in the number of individuals receiving ART and – because ART is a lifelong treatment and is effective in prolonging the lives of HIV-positive people – a rise over time in the number of people requiring ART. |
| Keywords: | Disease, control, global health, HIV/AIDS, Africa. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:3808&r=dev |
| By: | Till Bärnighausen (Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal); David E. Bloom |
| Abstract: | In many geographical regions, both in developing and in developed countries, the number of health workers is insufficient to achieve population health goals. Financial incentives for return of service are intended to alleviate health worker shortages: A (future) health worker enters into a contract to work for a number of years in an underserved area in exchange for a financial pay-off. The authors of this paper carried out a systematic literature search of PubMed for studies evaluating outcomes of financial-incentive programs published between 1957 and 2007. |
| Keywords: | Disease, control, global health, financial-incentive programs. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:3608&r=dev |
| By: | Badibanga, Thaddee M. |
| Abstract: | Since the abolition of its Apartheid regime in 1994, South Africa has launched a massive program of education, which has been financed through resources representing on average 21% of the national budget or 7% of GDP. Today, the GDP share of public spending on education is 1.3 times the average of industrialized countries (5.4%) and almost twice that of developing countries (3.9%). In this paper, we simulate fiscal policy experiments to analyze the growth and welfare effects of a shift in the allocation of government expenditures between public spending on education and transfers as well as those of a change in the tax rate in a model of endogenous growth with human capital accumulation for the South African economy. The results of simulations demonstrate that a shift in the allocation of fiscal resources between educational spending and transfers does not affect the long run allocation decisions. In the transition, however, this shift generates a negative effect on the rate of growth of GDP. In fact, a reallocation of expenditures shifts resources away from saving and toward consumption, and translate into lower rate of growth but higher welfare. Nonetheless, these growth and welfare effects are very small. On the other hand, a tax cut generates growth effects in the long run as well as in transition. In fact, reducing or cutting the tax rate in the long run lowers the interest rate, which in turn creates disincentives for saving and results in low rate of growth of GDP. However, in the transition, it reduces or removes distortions and translates into high work effort, high accumulation of human capital, and thus high rate of growth of GDP. Nonetheless, its welfare effect is negative. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Government Expenditures and Education, Growth Model, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, E62, H52, O41, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6431&r=dev |
| By: | Elias, Carlos; Alwang, Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an economic model of group formation with an application to data collected from an agricultural credit program in western Honduras. We formulate a simple theory of group formation using the concept of centers of gravity to explain why individuals join a group. According to our theory, prospective members join based on the potential benefits and costs of group membership, and based on their perception of social distance between themselves and other group members. Social distance is unobservable by outsiders but known by the individual: if you are in then you know who has blue hair. Thus, we argue that social distance helps explain preferences for group formation. To test our theory we analyze data collected from members and non-members of PRODERT, a program that has helped create 188 €܃ajas RuralesÂ€Ý (CRs). Using conjoint analysis we test for differences in preferences between members and non-members for the main attributes of the CR. We find that members and non-members exhibit similar preferences for the attributes of the CR; therefore non-membership is not related to supply factors. Using information gathered by executing field experiments, we estimate a proxy for social distance. We use this proxy to run a group formation equation and find that it explains, along with individual characteristics, participation in the CR. Finally we offer suggestions on how to balance performance and coverage in programs in which beneficiaries decide who joins. Small cohesive groups may show exceptional performance at the cost of low coverage, and the opposite may be true. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6527&r=dev |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Liu, Yanyan |
| Abstract: | We use a combination of pipeline comparison, propensity score matching, and double differences to evaluate economic and social impacts of a large community driven development program in India. While we find positive empowerment and nutritional effects for households in program areas, allowing heterogeneity of program impact yields additional insights. First, social and economic empowerment increased equally for participants and non-participants in program areas, pointing towards positive externalities. Second, nutritional benefits were more pronounced for new participants than for members of pre-existing self-help groups who joined the program. Third, evidence of higher consumption -but not income or asset formation- by new and converted participants suggests that at the point of the survey, the program's main economic impact had been through consumption smoothing and diversification of income sources. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6482&r=dev |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Jin, Songqing; Yadav, Vandana |
| Abstract: | While land reform has been the subject of considerable scholarly debate, most of the analyses have been at the aggregate level and focused on rather short-term effects. We use a listing of more than 90,000 households in some 200 villages in West Bengal to highlight the impact of the state's 1978 land reform program on human capital accumulation and current productivity of land use. While we ascertain a highly significant positive effect on long-term accumulation of human capital, our analysis also suggests that, partly because land that had been received through land reform is still operated under share tenancy arrangements, productivity on such land is significantly lower than the average. The combination of lower productivity of reform land relative to own land and land rental and sale's restriction of reform land is associated with significantly lower purchase and sale's price of reform land compared to own land. Programs to allow land reform beneficiaries to acquire full ownership could thus have significant benefits. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6277&r=dev |
| By: | Armah, Stephen; Nelson, Carl H. |
| Abstract: | Significant ambiguity surrounds the magnitude and sign of the effect of foreign aid on economic economic growth. Foreign aid can potentially augment scarce domestic capital to spur growth but foreign aid can also remove positive incentive to build wealth, stalling growth. This paper characterizes the effect of foreign aid on the growth of Sub-Saharan African countries after correcting endogeneity problems that plague the estimation. Foreign aid is found to be growth promoting given good governance and using fixed effects in a static panel framework. Data from twenty-one Sub-Saharan African countries spanning 1995-2003 was used in the estimation. The finding of a significant foreign aid-growth relationship is pertinent because it suggests that increased aid to Sub Saharan Africa is one way to achieve the UN€ٳ Millennium goals. By lobbying for increased foreign aid, advocates are prescribing a necessary albeit insufficient medicine for Sub Saharan Africa€ٳ economic problems. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6356&r=dev |
| By: | Jan, Dawood; Chisti, Anwar; Eberle, Phillip |
| Abstract: | Replaced with revised version of paper 05/21/08. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6241&r=dev |
| By: | Enver, Ayesha; Partridge, Mark |
| Abstract: | Replaced with revised version of paper 07/24/08. |
| Keywords: | Overlapping Generations Model, Rural-Urban Migration, Poverty Traps, Agglomeration Economies, Place-based Policies, Person-based Policies, Consumer/Household Economics, Labor and Human Capital, R13, R58, O15, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6475&r=dev |
| By: | Richter, Susan M. |
| Abstract: | The economic literature has highlighted how in the absence of income insurance risk averse households may voluntarily withdraw from credit markets, since contract terms may transfer too much risk to the household (Boucher, Carter, and Guirkinger, 2007). Therefore, households may forgo activities with higher expected income in favor of activities with less income variability across states of nature (Morduch, 1995). Recent literature has also evaluated how remittances provide households with insurance against income shocks (Yang and Choi, 2007; Rosenzweig and Stark, 1989) and how remittances may help households bypass financial intermediaries (Woodruff and Zenteno, 2001; Taylor, Rozelle, and de Brauw, 2003). There has been minimal attention, however, on how access to the potential receipt of remittances affects household participation in financial credit markets. On the one hand, the direct effect of remittances might decrease liquidity constraints at the household level and thus decrease credit demand. On the other hand remittances may provide households with insurance and thus increase willingness to accept credit contract terms. In this paper I estimate the effect of the potential receipt of remittances on credit demand. Potential receipt of remittances is estimated by predicting the household's receipt of remittances and variables that proxy for the strength and vulnerability of migration networks. Results indicate that the predicated amount of remittances received at the household level have a positive effect on credit demand. |
| Keywords: | Financial Economics, Health Economics and Policy, F22, F24, L14, O1, 015, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6261&r=dev |
| By: | BALDWIN, Katherine L.; DEVEAU, Vanessa; FOSTER, Ken; MARSHALL, Maria |
| Abstract: | While many contemporary development programs with regard to Sub-Saharan Africa€ٳ pastoralists promote improved livestock marketing as a way out of poverty, they also fail to take into account the multi-functionality of livestock within these communities, and thus are doomed to failure. While livestock are a main source of income for the pastoralist household, they also serve a purpose as a store of wealth, food source, and status symbol. Furthermore, cattle and smallstock (sheep and goats) fulfill each function to a different degree. Since livestock are so multi-functional, marketing projects could better achieve their objectives if they had a more accurate picture of what motivates household livestock sale decisions. To get a better understanding of why livestock are sold in one community of Central Kenya, we regressed household offtake rate of both cattle and smallstock against certain household characteristics, including number of household members, number of children, education, and employment. Additionally, we used a logit model to determine if those same characteristics affect the overall decision to sell instead of just the offtake rate. We found that employment or self-employment of at least one household member significantly affected both offtake rate and sale decision. In addition, the number of household members and number of children in school had varying affects on cattle and smallstock offtake rates. The results regarding smallstock suggest that they are considered a more liquid asset, so perhaps future programs should target increasing the profitability of smallstock production as opposed to cattle production. Overall, our analysis shows that community livestock sales are motivated by factors other than price, and as such should be considered in the design of any future marketing programs. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea08:6445&r=dev |
| By: | Nonthakot, Phanin; Villano, Renato |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between labour migration and agricultural productivity in the Northern Province of Thailand. Drawing on maize production data from a household survey, we estimate a stochastic production function to evaluate the effects of migration, remittances and salient characteristics of migrants on the mean maize output and levels of technical efficiency. Evidence shows that remittances and number of migrant workers facilitate maize production. It was also found that remittances, duration of migration, gender and education of migrants enhance the productive capacity of maize farmers. |
| Keywords: | Migration, stochastic frontier, technical efficiency, maize, Thailand, Crop Production/Industries, Labor and Human Capital, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare08:5981&r=dev |
| By: | Akter, Sonia; Brouwer, Roy; Chowdhury, Saria; Aziz, Salina |
| Abstract: | The paper presents empirical evidence of the determinants of catastrophe insurance participation in one of the poorest and most disaster prone countries in the world. In a large-scale household survey carried out in 2006 we ask 3,000 residents in six different districts in Bangladesh facing various environmental risk exposure levels about their willingness to participate in a catastrophe insurance programme. Combining factors put forward in risk theory and economics, we estimate a model of insurance participation. We show that the household decision to participate in the insurance programme differs depending on both exogenous and endogenous risk exposure levels. As predicted by micro-economic theory, ability to pay, measured in terms of household income and access to credit, significantly affects insurance participation. Furthermore, among the sociodemographic factors investigated in this case study, respondent education and occupation are found to significantly influence household decision making. Our study suggests that low participation rates for catastrophe insurance in a developing country can be explained by high rates of illiteracy and limited access to credit. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, catastrophe, insurance, participation, risk, Bangladesh, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, Risk and Uncertainty, Q54, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare08:5984&r=dev |
| By: | James L. Butkiewicz (Department of Economics,University of Delaware); Halit Yanikkaya (Department of Economics,Gebze Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports the results of a study of the impact of government expenditures on economic growth, emphasizing how government effectiveness in developing nations influences the productivity of government spending. The effects of categories of government spending on growth are also examined. No significant positive effects are found for defense, education and health variables. Consumption expenditures have negative growth effects in developed and developing nations, with a more detrimental impact in developing nations with ineffective governments. Developing nations with ineffective governments benefit from capital expenditures. To stimulate growth, developing nations should limit their governments’ consumption spending and invest in infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Government spending, Institutional Quality, Economic Growth |
| JEL: | O33 R11 O47 O55 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dlw:wpaper:08-23.&r=dev |
| By: | Massimo TAMBERI (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia); Aleksandra PARTEKA (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia) |
| Abstract: | Empirical findings confirm that relatively high specialisation of economic structures tends to be associated with low levels of income per capita, but countries diversify their export structures along their path of growth. However, usually only per capita income, and eventually, country-specific fixed effects are the sole explanatory variables taken into consideration in the estimation of specialisation curves. We extend the analysis of specialisation - economic development nexus and search for the determinants of trade diversification process. Using a panel data-set for 60 countries and twenty years (1985-2004), we combine synthetic specialisation measures obtained with manufacturing exports data (SITC Rev2, 3 digit) with a wide range of country-specific variables characterising their size, geographical conditions, endowments, human capital or institutional setting. It turns out that distance from major markets and country size are the most relevant and robust determinants of export diversification process, explaining together around half of between country variability in specialisation patterns. The results are robust to changes in the disaggregation scheme and in the estimation procedure. |
| Keywords: | sectoral diversification, structural change, trade |
| JEL: | C23 F15 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:327&r=dev |
| By: | Paolo Casini |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of entry in a previously monopolistic microcredit market characterized by asymmetric information and by institutions that offer only one type of contract. We consider different behavioral assumptions concerning the Incumbent and study their influence on equilibrium predictions. We show that competition leads to contract differentiation but can make borrowers worse off. Moreover, the screening process creates a previously unexplored source of rationing. We show that if the incumbent institution is altruistic, rationing is reduced and that this can positively affect the competitor's profit. |
| Keywords: | Microfinance, Competition, Altruism, Differentiation, Credit Rationing |
| JEL: | G21 L13 L31 O16 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2008_037&r=dev |
| By: | Guillermo Cruces (Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata); Leonardo Gasparini (Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) - Universidad Nacional de La Plata) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the changes in the income distribution in Argentina from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. Over the period inequality increased substantially. Two types of episodes have shaped this upward trend: deep macroeconomic crises and periods of sudden and intense economic liberalization. The sizeable rise in inequality in the 1990s seems to be associated to reallocations against unskilled-labor intensive sectors, and skilled-biased technological change within most sectors, both factors stimulated by the process of economic integration. The depth and speed of the reforms and the scarcity of public policies to ease the transition contributed to the particular severity of the income distribution changes. The macro crises and the subsequent recoveries contributed to the volatility of inequality along this upward trend. The large macroeconomic crisis of 2001/02 triggered a large jump in inequality, although income disparities returned to pre-crisis levels as the economy recovered fast, and large cash transfer programs were implemented. |
| Keywords: | inequality, distribution, integration, wages, Argentina |
| JEL: | C15 D31 I21 J23 J31 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0078&r=dev |
| By: | Matteo Cervellati; Uwe Sunde |
| Abstract: | We present a theory of the economic and demographic transition where adult longevity, child mortality, fertility and the education composition of the population are jointly determined. The model allows for an investigation of the determinants of underdevelopment traps as well as of the mechanism that leads to an endogenous exit out of the trap. We also study the different roles of exogenous reductions in mortality and of permanent differences in extrinsic mortality for comparative development. The theory delivers a series of novel predictions which are illustrated with a simple dynamic simulation of the model. These predictions are shown to be consistent with evidence using both time series data and crosscountry panel data. |
| Keywords: | Economic and Demographic Transition, Adult Longevity, Child Mortality, Heterogeneous Human Capital, Comparative Development, Development Traps, Kernel Distributions |
| JEL: | E10 J10 J13 N30 O10 O40 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:dp2008:2008-21&r=dev |
| By: | Jean-Philippe BERROU (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113); François COMBARNOUS (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113) |
| Abstract: | As to explore social networks influence in African informal economy, this paper fits in the conceptual framework of reticular embeddedness. By going into the analyse of ties strength, our purpose is to question the real influence of ties content. We use a recent original dataset to evaluate how entrepreneurs’ networks influence their activities economic outcomes. ‘Multiple name generators’ method provides a vast amount of information about ties content, which can be treated by factor analysis to describe and categorize networks. Finally, we show that not only business ties but the particular configuration of ties strength in networks improve informal earnings. |
| Keywords: | Informal economy ; embeddedness ; social networks ; informal earnings |
| JEL: | O17 Z13 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2008-25&r=dev |
| By: | Ekki Syamsulhakim (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to exercise a rather recent trend in applied microeconometrics, namely the effect of sampling design on statistical inference, especially on binary outcome model. Many theoretical research in econometrics have shown the inappropriateness of applying i.i.dassumed statistical analysis on non-i.i.d data. These research have provided proofs showing that applying the iid-assumed analysis on a non-iid observations would result in an inflated standard errors which could make the estimated coefficients inefficient if not biased. Consequently, a policy-affecting quantitative research would give an incorrect - usually of type-1 errors - in its conclusion. Using a dataset sourced from the third cycle of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), which sampling design involved multi-stage clustering and stratification, this paper shows discrepancies in the estimation result of probit regressions of a child attending school when the estimated standard errors are adjusted and not. The computation also shows a considerable change in the level of confidence in not-rejecting the null hypothesis of the explanatory variables. This paper provides more evidence that statistical analysis should always take into account the sampling design in collecting the data. |
| Keywords: | Applied microeconometrics, survey data, IFLS, design effects, economics of education, demand for schooling |
| JEL: | C12 C42 C81 I21 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:200809&r=dev |
| By: | Holger Görg; Verena Lauber; Birgit Meyer; Peter Nunnenkamp |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the nascent literature on the heterogeneity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and the relevance of firm characteristics for analyzing the determinants of outward foreign direct investment (FDI). The focus is on the role of firm-level heterogeneity when MNEs decide on the share of ownership in foreign affiliates. We combine two firm-specific datasets on German MNEs with varying equity stakes in Indian affiliates. The impact of firm characteristics on ownership shares is assessed in the context of OLS and fractional logit models, controlling for industry and location characteristics. We show that the effect of several characteristics differs between the establishment of new affiliates by German MNEs and their engagement in already existing Indian firms. Most notably, the productivity of the German parents matters only for ownership shares in new affiliates |
| Keywords: | multinational enterprises, firm characteristics, Indian locations, German FDI; ownership share; climate change, financial crises, the world trading system, oil supplies, immigration |
| JEL: | F23 L25 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1462&r=dev |
| By: | Gul, Adnan |
| Abstract: | Public debt is an important means of bridging government financing gaps. Effective and efficient utilization of public debt can increase economic growth. However, excessive reliance on public debt raises macroeconomic problems. A large gap between revenue and expenditure forces a country to obtain debt. Debt thus obtained further deteriorates expenditure side. High level of public debt holds back the government to meet its macroeconomic objectives of economic growth, price stability and a viable balance of payment. The major implications are sluggish economic growth, macroeconomic uncertainty, decreasing development, investment crowding out, inflation, higher unemployment, deteriorating social conditions and rising poverty causing economic destabilization which itself leads to destabilization of the state. Nation of such a country is often involved in corruption, organized riots, violent protests, strikes, man-slaughter, terrorism and other such crimes. In case of Pakistan, the major cause of poor economic performance is extraordinary burden of both domestic and external debt. The current situation is unsustainable and if it is not altered immediately than collapse of Pakistan’s economy is for certain. It is therefore essential for the government to plan and place policies and structural reforms to take charge of the havoc being played by unsustainable level of public debt. |
| Keywords: | Public Debt; Economic Growth; Macroeconomic Instability; Pakistan Economy |
| JEL: | H62 E62 H63 |
| Date: | 2008–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11427&r=dev |
| By: | Gordon H. Hanson |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I selectively discuss recent empirical work on the consequences of global labor mobility. I examine how international migration affects the incomes of individuals in sending and receiving countries and of migrants themselves. Were a social planner to choose the migration policies that would maximize global welfare, she would need to know, among other values, the elasticities of wages, prices, taxes, and government transfers with respect to national labor supplies, as well as how these parameters vary across countries. My goal is to evaluate the progress of the literature in terms of providing these inputs. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14490&r=dev |
| By: | Esther Duflo; Pascaline Dupas; Michael Kremer |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence on the impact of tracking primary school students by initial achievement. In the presence of positive spillover effects from academically proficient peers, tracking may be beneficial for strong students but hurt weaker ones. However, tracking may help everybody if heterogeneous classes make it difficult to teach at a level appropriate to most students. We test these competing claims using a randomized evaluation in Kenya. One hundred and twenty one primary schools which all had a single grade one class received funds to hire an extra teacher to split that class into two sections. In 60 randomly selected schools, students were randomly assigned to sections. In the remaining 61 schools, students were ranked by prior achievement (measured by their first term grades), and the top and bottom halves of the class were assigned to different sections. After 18 months, students in tracking schools scored 0.14 standard deviations higher than students in non-tracking schools, and this effect persisted one year after the program ended. Furthermore, students at all levels of the distribution benefited from tracking. A regression discontinuity analysis shows that in tracking schools scores of students near the median of the pre-test distribution score are independent of whether they were assigned to the top or bottom section. In contrast, in non-tracking schools we find that on average, students benefit from having academically stronger peers. This suggests that tracking was beneficial because it helped teachers focus their teaching to a level appropriate to most students in the class. |
| JEL: | I20 O1 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14475&r=dev |