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on Development |
| By: | Johanna D'Hernoncourt (CEESE, Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels.); Pierre-Guillaume Méon (Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels and DULBEA, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels.) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between the size of the shadow economy and generalized trust, on a cross-section of countries, both developed and developing, and finds that it is significantly negative. That relationship is robust to controlling for a large set of economic, policy, and institutional variables, to changing the estimate of the shadow economy and the estimation period, and to controlling for endogeneity. It is independent from trust in institutions. We provide evidence that it is mainly present in the sample of developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Shadow economy, informal sector, trust. |
| JEL: | O11 O17 O57 H26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:08-030&r=dev |
| By: | AZAM, Jean-Paul |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:9682&r=dev |
| By: | Eliana V. Jimenez; Richard P.C. Brown (School of Economics, The University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impacts of remittances on poverty with survey data from Tonga, a poor Pacific island country highly dependent on international migrants’ remittances. The sensitivity of poverty impacts to estimation method is tested using two methods to estimate migrants’ counterfactual incomes; bootstrap prediction with self-selection testing and propensity score matching. We find consistency between the two methods, both showing a substantial reduction in the incidence and depth of poverty with migration and remittances. With further robustness checks there is strong evidence that the poorest households benefit from migrants’ remittances, and that increased migration opportunities can contribute to poverty alleviation. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:375&r=dev |
| By: | Adelman, Sarah W.; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Lehrer, Kim |
| Abstract: | "The economic motivations for investing in the education and nutritional status of primary-school-aged children are well established. Moreover, investments in both of these forms of human capital are likely to benefit from substantial complementarities. However, in developing countries, poor and creditconstrained households routinely invest less in education and nutrition than is privately or socially optimal. Food for education (FFE) programs, including meals served in school and take-home rations conditional on school attendance, attempt to improve these investments by subsidizing the cost of school participation through providing food that could improve nutrition and learning. This study examines the economic motivation for the use of FFE programs to increase investments in education and nutrition. The study then presents a critical review of the empirical evidence of the impact of FFE programs on education and nutrition outcomes for primary-school-aged children in developing countries. The main contribution of this study is to judge and summarize the strength of the evidence based on the extent to which existing studies have identified a causal effect of an FFE program, as opposed to finding an association between the program and key outcomes that may have been affected by other contextual factors. The economic rationale for FFE programs is to offer free food conditional on school attendance to increase the net benefits of schooling enough to change some households' decisions about their children's school participation. Although schoolaged children are past the critical window of opportunity during early childhood for the greatest gains from good nutrition, increasing food and nutrient consumption among school-aged children with low baseline food energy or micronutrient intake can improve weight, reduce susceptibility to infection, and increase cognitive function in the short run. Because school meals are usually fortified, a child's micronutrient intake can improve even if her total calorie consumption does not. These xi short-run gains may improve a child's educational attainment and academic achievement, which can improve future welfare. For logistical and political reasons, school meal programs are commonly provided to all children in a targeted school. This practice raises the cost of achieving program objectives, such as increased attendance rates, because it provides transfers to many children who would have attended school anyway. Take-home rations programs are less subject to this criticism, because they are more easily targeted to groups, such as poor or female children, who are in greater need or who may be more likely to change their human capital investment decisions as a result of the program. Even when provided at school, food transfers can be diverted to other household members by taking food away from the beneficiary child at other meals. This practice could diminish the size of the transfer received by the beneficiary child, resulting in only a small net gain in the child's daily consumption. However, empirical evidence suggests that a substantial share of the food provided through in-school meal programs is not redistributed away from the beneficiary child. The critical review examines the empirical literature on the impacts of FFE programs on education and nutrition outcomes. The education outcomes considered include school participation measured by enrollment and attendance, age at entry, drop-out status, learning achievement, and cognitive development. The nutrition outcomes reviewed include food energy consumption, anthropometry, and micronutrient status. The review focuses on the empirical literature with the strongest methodology for identifying causal impacts. This literature includes experimental studies, such as randomized controlled trials; experimental field trials; studies using quasi-experimental methods, such as natural or administrative experiments; and nonexperimental studies using careful evaluation designs. Although the literature on the impacts of FFE programs is vast, high-quality studies with evaluation designs that provide causal impact estimates are relatively few. The nutrition literature offers many more experimental studies on nutrition outcomes than is yet available in the economics literature on education outcomes, yet many of the nutrition studies are controlled trials in which many components of the intervention typically affected by behavior, such as amount of food available at a meal, are closely managed. The external validity of these studies for programs implemented in the field is often difficult to ascertain. The number of experimental field studies for any outcome is few, but growing. From the existing literature, it is possible to draw conclusions about the likely impact of FFE programs on some outcomes, whereas for other outcomes, the literature is inconclusive. The empirical evidence suggests that in-school feeding has a positive impact on school participation in areas where initial indicators of school participation are low. In-school meal programs have been shown to have small impacts on school xii summary attendance rates for children already enrolled in school. However, there is no causal evidence for an impact on net primary-school attendance rates for all school-aged children in the service area of a school because of limitations in study design. The only study we found with attendance data for a representative sample of primaryschool– aged children, including those enrolled in school at baseline and those not enrolled, found a strong association between participation in a school meal program and school attendance, but estimated impacts cannot be reliably attributed to causal effects of the program. For similar reasons, there is also scant evidence on the effects of school meals on primary-school enrollment rates. Two empirical studies find that school meal programs cause a significant increase in learning achievement, as measured by improvements in test scores. However, in each study, scores were significantly higher for school meal recipients on only one of three tests taken. The impact of in-school meals on learning appears to operate both through improvements in school attendance and through better learning efficiency while in school, though no study has separately identified the relative contribution of these effects. FFE programs may also have an impact on cognitive development, though the size and nature of the effect vary greatly by program, micronutrient content of the food, and the measure of cognitive development used. Empirical evidence on the effects of school meals on cognitive function is mixed and depends on the tests used, the content of the meals, and the initial nutritional status of the children. Most of the studies are conducted in a laboratory setting and look at the short-term impact of feeding on cognitive function. The aspects of cognitive ability tested differ by study, making it difficult to compare results. Nonetheless, there is evidence that school meals rich in animal-source foods improved cognitive function in Kenyan children. Another study demonstrates an effect of school breakfasts on cognitive function. Given the controlled setting that formed the basis for these experiments, it would be useful now to expand the external validity of the evidence through field experiments. On other outcomes, the evidence of the impact of in-school feeding on primaryschool drop-out rates is inconclusive. We also found no study that examines the impact of school meals on age at school entry, probably because of the expense of collecting data on a representative sample of children around this age. Also, there is little conclusive evidence on the impact of take-home rations on education outcomes. For nutrition outcomes, most of the evidence comes from randomized trials in the nutrition literature. For food-energy (calorie) consumption, the evidence shows that in-school feeding programs show greater potential to improve children's total daily energy consumption when children's baseline consumption is well below their age- or weight-recommended consumption level. Differences in empirical strategy summary xiii may account for differences in findings across studies, as randomized experiments found a lower impact than did quasi-experimental studies. The diversity of program components and target populations in anthropometric studies, as well as the complexity of biological growth mechanisms, make it difficult to assess the effectiveness of FFE on anthropometric indicators. Overall, several studies showed gains in body size (for example, height, weight, body mass index) or composition (for example, mean upper-arm circumference) due to participation in FFE programs, with weight or body mass index appearing to respond most often. Improvements were typically small, though the effects of increased consumption may have been mitigated by increased activity levels in some cases. The micronutrient content of foods provided may contribute to gains in height (iron fortification) and mean upper-arm circumference (providing meat-based snacks). Deworming appears to have an interactive effect with FFE on height in one study. Turning to micronutrient status, iron fortification of FFE meals appears to improve iron status in nearly all studies reviewed. Evidence for other micronutrients is more sparse. One study found that meat-based meals improve plasma vitamin B12 concentrations but found no impact on other micronutrients. Two studies reviewed the impact of FFE on vitamin A status: one found a positive effect on plasma vitamin A status, whereas the other found no impact. Finally, one study found that iodine fortification reduced the prevalence of iodine deficiencies. The presence of malaria or other infections may impede detection of these benefits, particularly with respect to iron status. Combining the treatment with deworming can improve the effectiveness of iron supplementation, particularly in children with low baseline iron stores. Summarizing this evidence, FFE programs appear to have considerable impacts on primary-school participation, but the quality of this evidence is weak. Higher quality studies indicate some impacts on learning and cognitive development. There is evidence of effects on food consumption and micronutrient status, provided that initial consumption and nutrient deficiencies are identified and that programs are tailored to address these deficiencies. In many cases, the FFE programs appear to have little impact, because the levels of key outcome variables, such as school attendance or micronutrient status, are already high. Despite this evidence, significant research gaps remain. A surprising gap in this literature is the lack of convincing evidence of these programs' effect on school enrollment and attendance for a representative sample of school-aged children from the school's service area. There is also no conclusive empirical evidence on the impact of FFE programs on age at entry and grade repetition, and little on drop-out rates. In general, the impacts of take-home ration programs are poorly understood. Also, few studies identify the differential impacts of FFE on children by age or xiv summary gender. Finally, the impact of FFE programs on learning achievement has not been carefully analyzed by schooling inputs and class size. Perhaps the greatest omission in current research on FFE programs is the absence of well-designed cost-effectiveness studies. The policy decision on whether to undertake an FFE program or an alternative education or nutrition intervention should be based on relative differences in cost-effectiveness. However, most studies that measure program impact do not collect the additional data needed to obtain a measure of cost-effectiveness. Such studies would identify the cost from various interventions of achieving a certain percentage increase in primary-school attendance, for example. The most convincing approach would be to conduct sideby- side randomized field experiments of alternative programs. To our knowledge, only one study has done so, comparing in-school meals to programs that provide teachers with school supplies or foster parent–teacher communication. However, even these comparisons are complicated by the scarcity of programs likely to have the same kind of combined impacts on both education and nutrition outcomes. The most immediate policy implication of this review study is that more careful and systematic research is needed to find the most cost-effective combination of programs available. Without rigorous estimates of the impact of FFE programs on school participation, it is not possible to determine whether important secondary effects on learning achievement or cognitive development come primarily through school attendance or through joint effects of schooling and improved nutrition. It is these joint effects that are uniquely available through FFE programs. If the learning and cognitive benefits to school-aged children of simultaneous improvements in nutrition and schooling from FFE programs are small, cash-based programs may be more effective at increasing school participation. If there are no joint education and nutrition effects from FFE programs, it may be more cost-effective to replace these programs with specialized education and nutrition programs that are more narrowly targeted at specific objectives. More comprehensive and rigorous evaluation studies of FFE programs are needed to determine the full scope of the impacts of these programs and their relative cost-effectiveness. Our interpretation of the empirical evidence reviewed here leads to several recommendations on the design and use of FFE programs. Effects tend to be larger where schooling participation is low or where there are significant nutritional deficiencies. This fact argues for doing an assessment of school needs in target areas before starting an FFE program. Such an evaluation would improve targeting and allow FFE program components, such as the nutrient composition and quantity of food, to be tailored to local needs. Also, program administrators should be willing to consider complementary programs to improve school quality. Learning effects cannot be achieved if the instruction is of little value. Poor school quality lowers summary xv the benefits of participation and discourages attendance. Though much more evidence is needed, results from field experiments in the Philippines suggest that the cost of alternative programs to improve school quality may be only a fraction of the per child cost of an FFE program. Coordinated programs that combine FFE with improvements in school quality may be much more effective.." "Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Poverty reduction, Hunger, Food for education, School children, Education, Nutrition, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fprevi:9&r=dev |
| By: | Deressa, Temesgen; Hassan, R. M.; Alemu, Tekie; Yesuf, Mahmud; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | "This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers' choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints. Moreover, the analysis reveals that age of the household head, wealth, information on climate change, social capital, and agroecological settings have significant effects on farmers' perceptions of climate change." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Adaptation, Perception on climate change, Agriculture, Climate change, Nile Basin of Ethiopia, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:798&r=dev |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Thurlow, James; Diao, Xinshen; Kebba, Allen; Ofwono, Nelson |
| Abstract: | "Over the past two decades, Uganda has experienced strong economic growth. However, agriculture has not performed as well as the rest of the economy in recent years, and while the incidence of poverty has declined, it is still substantially higher in rural rather than urban areas. The Ugandan government, within the framework of its Plan for the Modernization of Agriculture (PMA) and the Prosperity for All (PFA) initiative, and in support of the upcoming National Development Plan, is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes the agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive rural development component under Uganda's National Development Plan in alignment with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include achievement of six percent agricultural growth and allocation of at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the agricultural sector. Our CGE modeling results indicate that it is possible for Uganda to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth, but this will require additional growth in a number of crops and sub-sectors. Uganda cannot rely on a few crops or sub-sectors to achieve its growth targets. Broader-based agricultural growth, including increases in fisheries and livestock, will be important if this target is to be achieved. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government's total budget on agriculture. In fact, even under a more optimistic and efficient spending scenario, the Government of Uganda will have to increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 25.3 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and account for at least 14 percent of its total expenditure by 2015. While Uganda is currently on track to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015, achieving the CAADP growth target should remain a high priority, since it will substantially reduce the number of people living below the poverty line and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Poverty, Public investment, GDP, Millennium Development Goals, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:790&r=dev |
| By: | Cheng, Fuzhi |
| Abstract: | "This paper reviews recent agricultural policy changes in China and presents estimates of domestic support for the period 1996-2005. A set of relevant alternative subsidy-definition scenarios and their effects on the calculated levels of support are analyzed, and a projection of domestic support through 2013 is presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of new WTO rules that may be negotiated in the Doha Round and their implications for China. Based on standard WTO subsidy calculation methods, our results indicated that China's domestic support for the period 1996-2005 has been well below the limits agreed at its WTO accession. The market price support (MPS) component of the aggregate measure of support (AMS) in China has been below zero, and this has dwarfed the relatively small but positive non-product specific AMS and led to a zero current total AMS after de minimis. China has no AMS commitments but can provide trade-distorting domestic support to agricultural producers up to 8.5 percent of the value of production (or RMB561 billion). Thus there appears to be substantial room for China to extend its amber box subsidy measures through heavy use of the de minimis provision. We project domestic support notifications through 2013 based on specified assumptions about domestic policies, including changes in administered prices and commodity program coverage. New rules potentially negotiated in the Doha Round are expected to provide more constraints on subsidies. Due to China's developing country status, with no AMS commitments under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture the impacts of these new constraints are shown to be limited, although our projections indicate that China may exceed its WTO commitment levels under certain price and commodity coverage scenarios." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agricultural policies, WTO Doha round, WTO compliance, Notification of domestic support, China agricultural support policies, Globalization, Markets, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:793&r=dev |
| By: | Nin Pratt, Alejandro; Yu, Bingxin |
| Abstract: | "We analyze the evolution of Sub-Saharan Africa's agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) over the past 40 years, looking for evidence of recent changes in growth patterns using a nonparametric Malmquist index. Our TFP estimates show a remarkable recovery in the performance of Sub-Saharan Africa's agriculture during the 1984–2003 period after a long period of poor performance and decline. That recovery is the consequence of improved efficiency in production resulting from changes in the output structure and an adjustment in the use of inputs, including an overall net reduction in fertilizer use but increased fertilizer use in most of the best-performing countries. Policy changes African countries conducted between the mid-1980s and the second half of the 1990s together with technological innovations available at that time appear to have played an important role in improving agriculture's performance. As TFP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is mainly a result of catching up to the frontier, we expect growth to slow in the coming years unless African countries accelerate the incorporation of innovations into the production process and increase the speed of technical change." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Efficiency, Malmquist index, Total factor productivity, Technical change, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:787&r=dev |
| By: | Wouterse, F. S. |
| Abstract: | "This paper applies Gini and concentration coefficient decomposition as well as the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty index and a welfare function to new data from Burkina Faso to test the relationship between long-distance international migration and internal migration within the African continent and inequality, poverty, and social welfare in rural households. Findings support our theoretical expectation that this relationship varies by migrant destination. We find evidence of a negative correlation between internal migration and inequality and a positive correlation between international migration and inequality. International migration, which involves high costs and risks, appears to be mainly accessible to already wealthy households. Comparatively high remittances from this form of migration are associated with greater inequality. We also find that although international migration is associated with a much lower incidence, depth, and severity of poverty, its impact on social welfare is limited because the beneficiaries of international migration do not include the rural poor." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | International migration, Internal migration, Rural households, Poverty, Social welfare, Urban-rural linkages, nonfarm, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:786&r=dev |
| By: | Yao, Yi; Zhang, Xiaobo |
| Abstract: | "Fiscal federalism has been argued to intensify regional competition and promote economic growth. This paper is the first, to our knowledge, to empirically assess the patterns and extent of strategic tax competition between geographically neighboring governments in China. Using a panel data set containing data at the county level, we apply Anselin's (1995) local indicator of spatial association (LISA) approach to statistically test the existence of local capital tax competition and examine its determining factors. We find heterogeneous tax competition behaviors across regions. Under decentralized fiscal structure and centralized merit-based governance structure, local governments have strong incentives to compete with each other to attract mobile capital. Counties in the coastal areas with favorable initial conditions of larger tax base tend to “race to the bottom” by lowering tax rates so as to create a pro-business environment. In contrast, the local governments in poor regions have difficulty in competing with the governments on the coast to attract investment and develop the local nonfarm economy. Their local revenues are sometimes barely sufficient to cover the salaries of civil servants on the public payroll. Consequently, they are more likely to levy heavy taxes on existing enterprises, worsening the business investment environment. This leads to a “race to the top” in raising effective tax rate in lagging regions." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Fiscal decentralization, Regional inequality, Tax competition, economic growth, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:799&r=dev |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | "Encouraging signs of growth acceleration in Africa may herald a new development era of rapid transformation. In an effort to promote the future success of African transformation, we herein provide an extensive literature review on development economics and empirical observations from successfully transformed countries, along with analytic narratives on the transformations of Thailand and Mexico. To conclude, we derive six key messages for African transformation. We find that the traditional development economics theory is consistent with the transformation practice of successful countries. However, this theory needs to be broadened in light of rising inequalities during transformation. Success vitally depends on agricultural development; early withdrawal of public support away from agriculture slows down transformation, and the resulting inequalities are recognized as a persistent development challenge. Transformation also depends on industrialization strategies, but we find that winner-picking industrialization negatively affects other aspects of development, whereas home-grown, export-oriented industrialization led by private entrepreneurs opens up broader opportunities for sustainable growth. Finally, government support will be required to create a business-promoting environment and to offer incentives for African entrepreneurs to lead growth." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Economic transformation, Agricultural growth, structural change, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:797&r=dev |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Thurlow, James; Diao, Xinshen; McCool, Christen; Simtowe, Franklin |
| Abstract: | "Malawi has experienced modest economic growth over the last decade and a half. However, agricultural growth has been particularly erratic, and while the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Malawian government, within the framework of the Agricultural Development Plan (ADP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive agricultural development strategy consistent with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include achieving six percent agricultural growth and allocating at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector. Economic modeling results indicate that it is possible for Malawi to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth. However, achievement of these goals will require additional growth in most crops and agricultural sub-sectors, meaning that Malawi cannot rely solely on growth in maize or tobacco to reach this growth target. Broader-based agricultural growth, including growth in pulses and horticultural crops, will be important if this target is to be achieved. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government's total budget on agriculture. In fact, even under a more optimistic and efficient spending scenario, the Government of Malawi must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 20 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and account for at least 24 percent of its total expenditure by 2015 if the CAADP goals are to be met. Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy, with agricultural growth typically resulting in substantial overall growth in the economy and rising incomes in rural and urban areas, simply achieving the CAADP target of six percent will not be sufficient to halve poverty by 2015, i.e. achieving the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). To achieve this more ambitious target, agriculture and non-agriculture would need an average annual growth rate above seven percent. This growth requirement is substantial, as is the associated resource requirements, indicating that the MDG1 target may be beyond reach. However, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as this goal has more reasonable growth and expenditure requirements, and will substantially reduce the number of people living below the poverty line by 2015 and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, GDP, Poverty, Public investment, MDGs, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:794&r=dev |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Thurlow, James; Diao, Xinshen; Kalinda, Henrietta; Kalinda, Thomson |
| Abstract: | "Zambia has experienced strong economic performance since 1999. However, agriculture has not performed as well as the rest of the economy, and although the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Zambian government, within the framework of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes the agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive rural development component under Zambia's FNDP, in alignment with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include the achievement of six percent agricultural growth and allocation of at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model results indicate that it is possible for Zambia to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth, but this will require additional growth in all crops and sub-sectors. Zambia cannot rely on only maize or higher-value export crops to achieve this growth target; broader-based agricultural growth, including increases in fisheries and livestock, will be important. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government's total budget on agriculture. In order to meet the CAADP target, the Government of Zambia must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 17–27 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and spend about 8–18 percent of its total expenditure on the sector by 2015. Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy and its growth will result in substantial overall growth in the economy and the household incomes of rural and urban populations, achieving the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth will not be sufficient to meet the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of halving poverty by 2015. To achieve this more ambitious target, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors would need an average annual growth rate of around ten percent per year. These growth requirements are substantial, as are the associated resource requirements. Thus, while the MDG1 target appears to be beyond reach for Zambia, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as its more reasonable growth and expenditure scenarios will still substantially reduce the number of poor people living below the poverty line by 2015, and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Poverty, Public investment, GDP, Millennium Development Goals, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:791&r=dev |
| By: | Gopinath,Munisamy |
| Abstract: | "In this study, we examined India's domestic support policies to understand their classification and measurement for the purposes of official World Trade Organization (WTO) notifications. We then employed the underlying methods to prepare shadow notifications of India's domestic support for 1998-2005. Following that, we explored alternative support-definition scenarios and their possible effects on shadow notifications. Preliminary support estimates for 2006-2007 and a projection for 2015 are also provided with a discussion on how the latest WTO (2008) draft modalities are likely to impact India's domestic support. India's official notifications began in 1995 with green box support of nearly US$2 billion and limited use of special and differential treatment. The product-specific aggregate measure of support (AMS) was negative because external reference prices were larger than minimum support prices. Nonproduct-specific AMS, by way of fertilizer, electricity, irrigation, credit, and seed subsidies, accounted for about 7 percent of the value of agricultural production in 1995. In subsequent notifications, for 1996 and 1997, several key changes were observed. The first was the transfer of 80 percent of fertilizer, irrigation, and electricity subsidies from nonproduct-specific AMS to special and differential treatment of low-income and resource-poor farmers. Product-specific AMS remained negative, but the value of production was replaced by eligible production, which was set equal to quantities procured by public agencies in 1996 and 1997. Shadow notifications, based on our understanding of the underlying methods, showed that green box support had grown to nearly US$8.0 billion in 2005. Estimates of input subsidies to low-income and resource-poor producers declined between 1998 and 2002, but they amounted to about US$4.5 billion or 4 percent of the value of agricultural production in 2005. Product-specific AMS remained negative through 2005 mostly because of the wide gap between external reference prices and minimum support prices. Nonproduct-specific AMS accounted for about 1 percent of the annual value of agricultural production for 1998-2005. Alternative support-definition and measurement scenarios showed a possible increase in product-specific AMS. However, reallocating input subsidies from special and differential treatment to nonproduct-specific AMS would only eliminate some of the slack in the latter's de minimis exemption. With India's general elections expected in early 2009, the immediate future includes popular policies such as credit subsidies and significant growth in minimum support prices. Nevertheless, non-product-specific AMS would not likely exceed the limits proposed in the Doha Round (that is, 10 percent of value of production) even with popular policies. However, product-specific AMS would turn positive, especially in cereals, with high growth in support prices and the appreciation of Rupee as seen in recent years. Projections for 2015 suggest that de minimis exemptions would be about US$16 billion each for product-specific and non-product-specific AMS, giving India ample flexibility in domestic support policies." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agricultural policies, WTO Doha round, WTO compliance, Notification of domestic support, India agricultural support policies, Globalization, Markets, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:792&r=dev |
| By: | Hewitt, Joanna |
| Abstract: | "This report assesses the impact of IFPRI's work on the agriculture negotiations in the WTO's Doha Round. It is set against the context of IFPRI's mission which emphasizes food security and the interests of poor people in low-income countries and underlines the importance of active engagement in policy communications to link research work to policy action. The report also traces briefly the evolution of IFPRI's work on international agricultural trade more generally, noting its broad disposition to market-oriented policy prescriptions while illuminating the very different impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on individual developing countries through detailed research at the national and household level." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Impact assessment, WTO, Doha Development Agenda, International trade, Agricultural trade liberalization, Developing countries, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:impass:28&r=dev |
| By: | Benson, Todd; Minot, Nicholas; Pender, John; Robles, Miguel; von Braun, Joachim |
| Abstract: | "Strong upward trends and increased variability in global food prices over the past two years have led to concern that hunger and poverty will increase across the world. At the same time, rising food prices provide an incentive and opportunity for many developing countries to strengthen the contribution their farmers make to national economic growth and poverty reduction. Policymakers and opinion leaders in developing countries, however, often lack sufficient information to gauge the likely effects of global food crises on their country and to identify, design, and implement policy actions that can best avoid risks and take advantage of opportunities.The deficiencies in information and analysis can lead to over- and underreactions, resulting in policy and market failures. Experiences across countries in 2007 and 2008 show ample evidence of such outcomes. This report seeks to support national decisionmakers, as well as their international development partners, in acquiring information and applying methods for understanding the likely effects of a global food crisis on their country and acting to alleviate the risks and exploit the opportunities brought about by such crises. It describes data and methods and suggests how to facilitate their collection and use. The report then outlines the design and implementation of an open Internet-based portal for sharing reliable, appropriate information and decision-support tools for national policymakers so they can respond quickly to changes in world food markets in an informed manner." from Text |
| Keywords: | World food situation, Globalization, food security, Agricultural production, Markets, Food prices, Farmers, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fprepo:19&r=dev |
| By: | Simone Bertoli (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche); Giovanni Andrea Cornia (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche); Francesco Manaresi (Università degli Studi di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche) |
| Abstract: | this paper aims at contributing to a better understanding of the determinants of aid effort by donor countries, a topic that has been rather under researched in the vast economic literature on development aid. We conduct an econometric analysis on panel data that refer to the 22 member countries of the OECD Development Assistance Committee over the 1970 2004 period; the estimates are then used as a benchmark against which we assess to what extent the poor Italian aid performance can be traced back to its specific macroeconomic, structural and institutional characteristics. The analysis suggests that these factors – that are found to significantly influence aid effort – fall short of explaining the limited amount of fiscal resources that Italy devotes to international aid. Even when its specific characteristics are accounted for, Italy is found to be lagging behind the OECD norm, so that the analysis challenges the claims that the limited Italian aid effort is due to binding fiscal constraints. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid, fiscal expenditures, economic development |
| JEL: | F35 H59 H87 O1 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2008_11.rdf&r=dev |
| By: | de Mel, Suresh (University of Peradeniya); McKenzie, David (World Bank); Woodruff, Christopher (University of California, San Diego) |
| Abstract: | In a recent randomized experiment we found mean returns to capital of between 5 and 6 percent per month in Sri Lankan microenterprises, much higher than market interest rates. But returns were found to be much higher among men than among women, and indeed were not different from zero for women. In this paper, we explore different explanations for the lower returns among female owners. We find no evidence that the gender gap is explained by differences in ability, risk aversion, or entrepreneurial attitudes. Nor do we find that differential access to unpaid family labor or social constraints limiting sales to local areas are important. We do find evidence that women invested the grants differently from men. A smaller share of the smaller grants remained in the female-owned enterprises, and men were more likely to spend the grant on working capital and women on equipment. We also find that the gender gap is largest when we compare male-dominated sectors to female-dominated sectors, although female returns are lower than male returns even for females working in the same industries as men. We then examine the heterogeneity of returns to determine whether any group of businesses owned by women benefit from easing capital constraints. The results suggest there is a large group of high-return male owners and smaller group of poor, high-ability, female owners who might benefit from more access to capital. |
| Keywords: | microenterprises, gender, microfinance, randomized experiment |
| JEL: | O12 O16 C93 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3743&r=dev |
| By: | Doepke, Matthias (Northwestern University); Zilibotti, Fabrizio (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | Child labor is a persistent phenomenon in many developing countries. In recent years, support has been growing among rich-country governments and consumer groups for the use of trade policies, such as product boycotts and the imposition of international labor standards, to reduce child labor in poor countries. In this paper, we discuss research on the long-run implications of such policies. In particular, we demonstrate that such measures may have the unintended side effect of lowering domestic support for banning child labor within developing countries, and thus may contribute to the persistence of the child-labor problem. |
| Keywords: | child labor, political economy, international labor standards, trade sanctions |
| JEL: | J20 J88 O10 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3742&r=dev |
| By: | Bhandari, Amit Kumar (Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management) |
| Abstract: | Trade unionism is a legislative system of organizing workers and raising voices for economic and social goods. As the process of global integration deepens the labour market become more flexible and fragmented, rendering collective organization more and more difficult. In this backdrop, the paper attempted to analyse the impact of union membership on wages in the organised manufacturing industries in India. The study uses a recent survey data on labour market in the organised manufacturing industries. The estimated wage premiums for union membership for permanent and contract workers are 56.7 per cent and 10.3 per cent respectively. Decomposing this wage gap indicates that union membership contributes majority of the wage differentials, indicating that unions able to reserve higher premium for their members. In general, it refutes the problem of free riding the benefits in the organized manufacturing industries in India. |
| Keywords: | trade unions, wage differentials, manufacturing |
| JEL: | J51 J31 L60 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3747&r=dev |
| By: | Niloy Bose (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin); Salvatore Capasso (Department of Economics, University of Naples 'Parthenope', and CSEF); Martin Wurm (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs data on 119 countries for the period 1999/2000 to 2004/2005 to examine the impact of banking development on the size of shadow economies. The main results indicate that an improvement in the development of the banking sector is associated with a smaller shadow economy in a wide cross-section of countries. In addition, both depth and efficiency of the banking sector matter equally in reducing the size of a shadow economy. These stylized results are robust under a variety of specifications and controls for simultaneity bias. |
| Keywords: | Shadow Economy, Banking Development. |
| JEL: | H G |
| Date: | 2008–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:207&r=dev |
| By: | Florida, Richard (Martin Prosperity Institute); Mellander, Charlotta (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Qian, Haifeng (School of Public Policy, George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | The relationships between talent, technology and regional development have been widely examined in the advanced economies. While there is a general consensus as to the important role talent plays in regional development, debate has emerged on two key issues. The first involves the efficacy of educational (i.e. human capital) versus occupational (i.e. the creative class) measures of talent; the second involves the factors affecting the distribution of talent. In this study, we have used structural equation models and path analysis. We employed both educational and occupational measures of talent to examine the relationships between talent, technology and regional economic performance in China, and to isolate the effects of tolerance, differing levels of consumer service amenities, and the location of universities on the distribution of talent. Contrary to the findings of empirical studies on the developed economies, we found the relationships between the distribution of talent and technology and between the distribution of talent and regional economic performance in China to be weak. We found the presence of universities – a factor highly influenced by government policy – and the actual stock of talent to be strongly related. We also found that tolerance, as measured by the “Hukou index,” plays an important role in the distribution of talent and technology in China. |
| Keywords: | China; Talent; Human Capital; Creative Class; Tolerance; Technology; Regional Development |
| JEL: | O30 P30 R12 |
| Date: | 2008–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0145&r=dev |
| By: | Granlund , David (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Chuc , NT (Faculty of Public Health); Phuc , HD (Institute of Mathematics); Lindholm, Lars (Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine) |
| Abstract: | The association between socioeconomic variables and mortality for 41 000 adults Vietnamese followed from January 1999 to March 2008 are estimated using Cox's proportionally hazard models. Also, we use decomposition techniques to investigate the relative importance of socioeconomic factors for explaining total inequality in age-standardized mortality risk. The results confirm previously found negative association between mortality and income and education, for both men and women. The decomposition, however, shows that these variables together explain less than one third of the inequality, suggesting that it is important to also consider other dimensions of socioeconomic status, such as occupation and marital status. Finally, estimation results for relative education variables suggest that there exist positive spillover of education, meaning that that higher education of one's neighbors or spouse might reduce ones mortality risk. |
| Keywords: | Health inequality; Socioeconomic status; Mortality risk; Decomposition; Vietnam |
| JEL: | D30 D63 I10 I30 |
| Date: | 2008–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0751&r=dev |
| By: | Alexander Coad; Jagannadha Pawan Tamvada |
| Abstract: | Empirical work on micro and small firms has focused on developed countries. The little work that exists on developing countries is all too often based on small samples taken from ad hoc questionnaires. The census data we analyze are fairly representative of the structure of small business in India. Consistent with prior research on developed countries, size and age have a negative impact on firm growth in the majority of specifications. The decision to export is a double-edged sword – if successful it can accelerate the growth of successful firms, but it can also increase the probability of decline. While proprietary ownership results in faster growth, enterprises managed by women are less likely to grow and more likely to decline. Although many small firms are able to convert knowhow into commercial success, we find that many others do not have any technical knowledge and some are unable to use it to their benefit. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Developing countries, Micro and Small businesses, Firm growth, Firm age, Barriers to growth, Declining firms, Female entrepreneurs Length 32 pages |
| JEL: | L25 L26 O12 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:evopap:2008-08&r=dev |
| By: | Huw McKay |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the likely future path of China’s metal intensity by referencing the experience of relevant peers through initial engagement with a technology-led strategy and beyond. This question cuts to the very roots of Chinese long run economic strategy and performance. The broad conclusion is that there is no ‘silver bullet’ quantitative model that captures the dynamics of metal intensity through the entirety of the industrialisation process. Even the identification of a robust non-linear long run relationship between steel intensity and income per capita in the United States, styled here as the “metal intensity Kuznets curve”, does not overturn this position. Each national industrialisation process, its entry into the global strategic transition and its relationship to metal intensity, appears to be sui generis and should be dealt with accordingly. China will not continue to follow a metal intensity path similar to Korea’s for more than another decade. After that point, similarities with the Japanese and United States’ experiences will increase, but a distinct Chinese character will develop. The peak in Chinese steel usage per capita should occur within a handful of years from 2020. |
| Keywords: | metal intensity, Asian industrialisation, China, strategic transition, Kuznets curve |
| JEL: | N1 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auu:wpaper:006&r=dev |
| By: | Paz, Lourenço S.; Gomes, Fábio A. R. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_146&r=dev |
| By: | Philip Verwimp; Tom Bundervoet |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effect of civil war on household welfare. Using Burundian panel data for the 1998-2007 period in which we re-interviewed original as well as newly formed households (split-offs), we show that headcount poverty decreased by 3.5 % points when split-off households are taken into account and 1% when splits are left out. Poverty is persistent while prosperity is not, in particular in war-affected areas. We find that 25 war-related deaths or wounded at the village level reduce consumption growth by 13%. We also find that violence afflicted on household members decreases growth whereas membership of rebel groups increases it. Apart from such war-related effects - and controlling for initial levels of consumption - we find that temporarily famine-induced migration and illness decrease growth while good harvests, more split-offs and higher initial levels of education increase it. Good harvests are found to have persistent positive effects on growth. Our results are robust for different household and province fixed effects specifications. |
| Keywords: | consumption, growth, split-off households, civil war, panel data, Africa |
| JEL: | C81 I32 O12 N47 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2008_023&r=dev |
| By: | Van der Poel, E; O'Donnell, O; van Doorslaer, E |
| Abstract: | A new methodology is used to quantify, track and explain the distribution of obesity and hypertension across areas differentiated by their degree of urbanicity. We construct an index of urbanicity from longitudinal data on community characteristics from the China Health and Nutrition Survey and compute a rank-based measure of inequality in disease risk factors by degree of urbanicity. Prevalence rates almost doubled over the period 1991-2004 and the risk factors became less concentrated in more urbanized areas. Decomposition analysis shows that urbanicity-related inequalities are mostly attributable to differences in community level characteristics and to disparities in incomes and in the physical and farming activity of individuals. |
| Keywords: | China, urbanization, health inequalities, obesity, hypertension, decomposition |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:08/25&r=dev |
| By: | Luis Marcano (Office of Evaluation and Oversight at the Interamerican Development Bank.); Inder J. Ruprah (Office of Evaluation and Oversight at the Interamerican Development Bank.) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates Progressive Housing Program; a public housing program that facilitates the purchase of a new home. The evaluation finds that the program’s package (savings requirement, voucher and mortgage) design is inappropriate if the program is targeted to the poor. In fact the pro-poor targeting of the program was poor with high under-coverage and high leakage. Further, the benefit, a minimum quality new house, was not sustainable as many households slipped back into the housing shortage category overtime. An impact evaluation reveals that although the program had significant positive effects on materiality conditions (access to water, sewerage, and electricity), it had a negative effect on overcrowding, and had no discernable effects on welfare indicators (poverty, school attendance, occupation ratio, etc.). This could be due to high residential segregation that resulted from attempting to maximize the number of housing solutions on the cheap. The study also cautions against the mechanical use of cost benefit calculations for policy decisions: the program’s internal rate of return was higher than the official cut off rate of 12%. |
| Keywords: | Housing Program, Poverty, Segregation, Impact Evaluation, Housing Shortage, Cost-Benefits Analysis |
| JEL: | R31 H43 I38 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:ovewps:0608&r=dev |
| By: | Ximena Soruco Author-X-Name_First: Ximena Author-X-Name_Last: Soruco; Giorgina Piani Author-X-Name_First: Giorgina Author-X-Name_Last: Piani; Máximo Rossi Author-X-Name_First: Máximo Author-X-Name_Last: Rossi |
| Abstract: | This study seeks to identify, measure and analyze possible discriminatory behaviors in southern Ecuador. There are three main findings. First, emigration is perceived as a social problem. Second, emigrant families are seen as economically “irrational” because they are not perceived to be investing remittances in productive and sustainable activities; emigrants are additionally portrayed as “irresponsible” because they leave their families in search of better living conditions. Third, emigrants’ children are perceived as doing worse in school than their peers and as living outside the society at large. Observed discrimination follows a cultural pattern: persons closer to the dominant culture are proportionately more to discriminate against emigrants and their families, and women show more discriminatory attitudes than men. |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3244&r=dev |
| By: | Máximo Torero Author-X-Name_First: Máximo Author-X-Name_Last: Torero; Marco Castillo Author-X-Name_First: Marco Author-X-Name_Last: Castillo; Ragan Petrie Author-X-Name_First: Ragan Author-X-Name_Last: Petrie |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a series of experiments on discrimination in urban Lima, Peru. The experiments exploit degrees of information on performance as a way to assess how personal characteristics affect how people sort into groups, and the results show that behavior is not correlated with personal socio-economic and racial characteristics. However, people do use personal characteristics to sort themselves into groups. Height is a robust predictor of being desirable, as is being a woman. Looking indigenous makes one less desirable, and looking “white” increases one’s desirability. Interestingly, our experiments show that once information on performance is provided, almost all evidence of discrimination is eliminated. Although there is evidence of stereotyping or preference-based discrimination, clear information trumps discrimination. |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3246&r=dev |
| By: | Juan Camilo Cardenas Author-X-Name_First: Juan Camilo Author-X-Name_Last: Cardenas; Natalia Candelo Author-X-Name_First: Natalia Author-X-Name_Last: Candelo; Alejandro Gaviria Author-X-Name_First: Alejandro Author-X-Name_Last: Gaviria; Sandra Polania Author-X-Name_First: Sandra Author-X-Name_Last: Polania; Rajiv Sethi Author-X-Name_First: Rajiv Author-X-Name_Last: Sethi |
| Abstract: | This paper uses an experimental field approach to investigate the pro-social preferences and behavior of social services providers and the behavior of potential beneficiaries in Bogota, Colombia. Field experiments were conducted using games including a newly designed Distributive Dictator Game in order to examine traits and mechanisms guiding pro-sociality. Replicating the patterns of previous studies, individuals showed a preference for fair outcomes, positive levels of trust and reciprocity, and willingness to punish unfair outcomes. The results provide evidence that the poor trigger more pro-social behavior from all citizens, including public servants, but the latter display strategic generosity. Additional observations include a bias in favor of women and households with more dependents, but discriminatory behavior against stigmatized groups. |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3247&r=dev |
| By: | Eduardo Borensztein; Eduardo Cavallo (Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank); Patricio Valenzuela |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more disaster-prone areas of the world, it has the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability of Belize’s public finance to the occurrence of hurricanes and the potential impact of insurance instruments in reducing that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize’s debt sustainability. In addition, the methodology employed makes it possible to estimate the appropriate level of insurance, which for the case of Belize is a maximum coverage of US$120 million per year. International organizations can play a role in assisting countries to overcome distortions in insurance markets, as well as in helping to relax internal political resistance to the purchase of insurance policies. |
| Keywords: | Public Finance, Insurance, Natural Disasters |
| JEL: | H30 G15 G22 Q54 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:2008&r=dev |
| By: | Carmen Elisa Flórez Author-X-Name_First: Carmen Elisa Author-X-Name_Last: Flórez; Victoria Eugenia Soto Author-X-Name_First: Victoria Eugenia Author-X-Name_Last: Soto |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the state of sexual and reproductive health inseveral countries in Latin America and the Caribbean using the Demographic and Health Surveys to select countries according to their stage in the demographic transition. The results indicate advances in some areas, the most favorable being in countries with low fertility and among higher social classes. However, there are still important challenges, especially in countries whose transition has lagged. The evidence suggests that lack of information and access to reproductive services as well as social and cultural barriers, limits the exercise of a full reproductive life of women in high fertility countries and among underprivileged groups. |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4571&r=dev |
| By: | David Bravo Author-X-Name_First: David Author-X-Name_Last: Bravo; Claudia Sanhueza Author-X-Name_First: Claudia Author-X-Name_Last: Sanhueza; Sergio Urzua Author-X-Name_First: Sergio Author-X-Name_Last: Urzua |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes gender differences in the Chilean labor market, formally addressing the selection of individuals into schooling levels and its impact on gender gaps. The paper utilizes a new and rich data set containing information on labor market outcomes, schooling attainment and schooling performance, as well as variables characterizing individuals’ family background. Although the results show statistically significant gender differences in several dimensions of the Chilean labor market, these gaps depend largely on individuals’ level of schooling. Nonetheless, these findings should not be taken as decisive evidence of discrimination in the Chilean labor market, as future research based on better information might explain some of the unexplained labor market gaps. |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3258&r=dev |
| By: | David Bravo Author-X-Name_First: David Author-X-Name_Last: Bravo; Claudia Sanhueza Author-X-Name_First: Claudia Author-X-Name_Last: Sanhueza; Sergio Urzua Author-X-Name_First: Sergio Author-X-Name_Last: Urzua |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to study the Chilean labor market and determine the presence or absence of gender discrimination. In order to transcend the limitations of earlier works, an experimental design is used, the first of its kind in Chile. This study also allows socioeconomic discrimination associated with names and places of residence to be addressed. The study consists of sending fictitious Curriculum Vitae for real job vacancies published weekly in the Santiago newspaper El Mercurio. A range of strictly equivalent CVs in terms of qualifications and employment experience of applicants are sent out, varying only in gender, name and surname, and place of residence. The results show no significant differences in callback rates across groups, in contrast with what is found in other international studies. |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3242&r=dev |
| By: | Alejandro Izquierdo Author-X-Name_First: Alejandro Author-X-Name_Last: Izquierdo; Randall Romero Author-X-Name_First: Randall Author-X-Name_Last: Romero; Ernesto Talvi Author-X-Name_First: Ernesto Author-X-Name_Last: Talvi |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of variance in LAC7 GDP growth, and that external shocks produce significant responses. Likewise, a significant share of recent LAC7 growth performance can be explained by an external factor “tailwind. ” Also evaluated is the impact of deterioration in external financial conditions. Finally, the relevance of these findings for policy evaluation is emphasized. Growth performance, the strength or weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals and the impact of domestic macro and micro policies on growth can only be properly appraised by first filtering out the effects of external factors. |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4569&r=dev |
| By: | Carmen Pagés-Serra Author-X-Name_First: Carmen Author-X-Name_Last: Pagés-Serra; Alejandro Micco Author-X-Name_First: Alejandro Author-X-Name_Last: Micco |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic effects of employment protection legislation in a sample of developed and developing countries. Implementing a difference-in-differences test lessens the potentially severe endogeneity and omitted variable problems associated with cross-country regressions. This test is based on the hypothesis that employment protection regulations are more binding in sectors of activity exposed to higher volatility in demand or supply shocks. The analysis indicates that more stringent legislation slows down job turnover by a significant amount, and that this effect is more pronounced in sectors that are intrinsically more volatile. The paper also finds that employment and value added decline in the most affected sectors, and employment and output effects are driven by a decline in the net entry of firms. In contrast, average employment per plant is not significantly affected. |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4496&r=dev |
| By: | Mariana Alfonso Author-X-Name_First: Mariana Author-X-Name_Last: Alfonso |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to quantify female teenage sexual activity, pregnancy, and motherhood in Bolivia using the most recent Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive results suggest that teenage sexual activity, pregnancy, and childbearing are more prevalent among those adolescents who are more likely to be socially vulnerable and excluded. In addition, the high incidence of undesired pregnancies among Bolivian teen girls suggests that government action to prevent teenage pregnancy is needed. Lastly, the estimation results indicate that not only socioeconomic and demographic factors, but also some of the expected outcomes of teenage motherhood, regional fertility factors, and knowledge about and use of family planning methods, are significantly related to the probability of teenage pregnancy/childbearing. |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4538&r=dev |
| By: | Armando Castelar Pinneiro Author-X-Name_First: Armando Author-X-Name_Last: Castelar Pinneiro; Regis Bonelli Author-X-Name_First: Regis Author-X-Name_Last: Bonelli |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Brazil’s export discoveries in aircraft, cell phones and swine meat. All cases confirm the importance of efficiency gains and sunk costs in the expansion of exports and lead to the following conclusions: both economic policy and comparative advantage played important roles in the emergence of new export activities; economies of scale were a crucial determinant of competitiveness; and a well-known brand helped to overcome information asymmetries and facilitate entry into export markets. Exporters concentrated on design, marketing, R&D, and product assembly, making coordination with suppliers an important element in their strategies. Public policy additionally had a strong if sometimes unintended influence. While governments can foster discoveries, especially in the presence of market failures, policy alone cannot produce a successful exporter. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3256&r=dev |
| By: | Guillermo A. Calvo Author-X-Name_First: Guillermo A. Author-X-Name_Last: Calvo; Alejandro Izquierdo Author-X-Name_First: Alejandro Author-X-Name_Last: Izquierdo; Luis Fernando Mejía Author-X-Name_First: Luis Fernando Author-X-Name_Last: Mejía |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004, this paper analyzes the characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows and the relevance of balance-sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. A small supply of tradable goods relative to their domestic absorption?a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate?and large foreign-exchange denominated debts towards the domestic banking system are claimed to be key determinants of the probability of 3S, producing a balancesheet effect with non-linear impacts on the probability of 3S. While financial integration is up to a point associated with a higher likelihood of 3S, beyond that point financial integration is associated with a lower likelihood of 3S. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4581&r=dev |
| By: | Andrew Powell Author-X-Name_First: Andrew Author-X-Name_Last: Powell; Juan F. Martinez S. Author-X-Name_First: Juan F. Author-X-Name_Last: Martinez S. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes alternative models for emerging sovereign ratings. Although a small number of economic fundamentals explain ratings reasonably well, variations in those economic fundamentals are themselves explained by a small number of world factors. On the other hand, global financial variables associated with risk aversion are additionally required in order to explain the significant spread compression at the end of 2006. To determine whether ratings matter for spreads, the paper compares results across different methodologies, in particular exploiting differences in opinion between rating agencies. The evidence from this and previous methodologies is that ratings do matter. Finally, the paper finds that global indicators of risk aversion have become less important for emerging market spreads and that the effect of sub-prime news is less than the effect of “average news” on emerging economy credit default swap (CDS) spreads. |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4565&r=dev |
| By: | Hugo Ñopo Author-X-Name_First: Hugo Author-X-Name_Last: Ñopo; Alberto Chong Author-X-Name_First: Alberto Author-X-Name_Last: Chong; Juan Camilo Cardenas Author-X-Name_First: Juan Camilo Author-X-Name_Last: Cardenas |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the link between what people say they prefer to do and what they actually do. Using data from an experimental project exploring trust and pro-sociality for representative samples of individuals in six Latin American capital cities, the paper links the results of these experiments with the responses obtained from representative surveys to the same participating individuals. Individuals with higher agreement with a set of pro-social statements are those more willing to contribute and collaborate to the social welfare in the community, and what people say is linked to what people do. This supports the idea that the inclusion of subjective controls in the lefthand- side in an empirical specification does carry useful information. |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4575&r=dev |
| By: | José Cuesta Author-X-Name_First: José Author-X-Name_Last: Cuesta |
| Abstract: | This paper models the impact on economic growth of HIV/AIDS when the epidemic is in a mature phase, in contrast with previous studies focused on periods of expansion, as in African countries. Simulations for Honduras, the epicenter of the epidemic in Central America, show that AIDS is not likely to threaten economic growth through either labor or capital accumulation channels; impacts are estimated between 0. 007 and 0. 27 percent points of GDP growth annually for the period 2001-10. Likewise, increasing spending on prevention, public treatment subsidies and treatment access will not jeopardize economic growth prospects. Critical factors that slash economic growth in Africa (such as human capital reductions and shifts in relative skills) are not strong in Honduras. |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4567&r=dev |
| By: | Alberto Chong Author-X-Name_First: Alberto Author-X-Name_Last: Chong; Mark Gradstein Author-X-Name_First: Mark Author-X-Name_Last: Gradstein |
| Abstract: | This paper’s model suggests that a strong leader, sometimes with little legislative oversight, may nevertheless benefit from public support. The argument is that this support is induced as an attempt by the poor to counter the subversion of public protection of property rights by the rich, and to achieve this goal they are often willing to pay the price of the leader’s diversion of tax revenues for private use. The paper then examines survey data on individual attitudes toward strong leadership and finds their pattern to be consistent with the model’s predictions; specifically, support for strong leadership is inversely related to individual income and to countrywide income inequality. |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4563&r=dev |
| By: | Sebastian Calonico Author-X-Name_First: Sebastian Author-X-Name_Last: Calonico; Hugo Ñopo Author-X-Name_First: Hugo Author-X-Name_Last: Ñopo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolution of gender segregation in the workplace in Mexico between 1994 and 2004, using a matching comparisons technique to explore the role of individual and family characteristics in determining gender segregation and wage gaps. The results suggest that the complete elimination of hierarchical segregation would reduce the observed gender wage gaps by 5 percentage points, while the elimination of occupational segregation would have increased gender wage gaps by approximately 6 percentage points. The results also indicate that the role of occupational segregation in wage gaps has been increasing in magnitude during the period of analysis, while the role ofhierarchical segregation in the determination of wage gaps has been decreasing. |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4579&r=dev |
| By: | Nestor Gandelman Author-X-Name_First: Nestor Author-X-Name_Last: Gandelman |
| Abstract: | The gender of the household head has often been treated as an exogenous determinant of homeownership. This paper argues that several determinants of homeownership also affect household headship and that failing to explicitly account for this endogeneity leads to inconsistent results. Using individual level data for Chile, Honduras and Nicaragua, the paper shows that although on average women have lower probability of being homeowners, women who head households (single, separated or divorced) have a greater probability of attaining homeownership. Thus household level analysis should control for the endogeneity of household headship in order to properly address the gender effect on housing tenure. Estimating a bivariate probit model, the paper finds evidence that femaleheaded families have a lower probability of owning their home in Latin American countries. Without the endogeneity control this result was not present in eight countries. |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3252&r=dev |
| By: | Eduardo Gandelman Author-X-Name_First: Eduardo Author-X-Name_Last: Gandelman; Nestor Gandelman Author-X-Name_First: Nestor Author-X-Name_Last: Gandelman; Julie Rothschild Author-X-Name_First: Julie Author-X-Name_Last: Rothschild |
| Abstract: | Using micro data on judicial proceedings in Uruguay, this paper presents evidence that female defendants receive more favorable treatment in courts than male defendants. This is due to longer foreclosure proceedings and higher probabilities of being granted extensions in evictions and dispossessions for female defendants. |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3250&r=dev |
| By: | Hugo Ñopo Author-X-Name_First: Hugo Author-X-Name_Last: Ñopo; Alberto Gonzales Author-X-Name_First: Alberto Author-X-Name_Last: Gonzales |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes gender and ethnic wage gaps in Guatemala for the period 2000-2006, applying a matching comparisons technique, finding pronounced wage gaps along both gender and ethnic dimensions, the latter being greater. Wage gaps in Guatemala are partially explained by differences in human capital characteristics, especially education, between indigenous and non-indigenous and males and females, which calls for equalization of educational opportunities for the population. However, wage gaps are greater than differences in education would predict, which suggests the need for interventions: information campaigns to generate consciousness regarding the need to provide more equal opportunities in labor markets according to each individual’s productivity. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4587&r=dev |
| By: | Alberto Chong Author-X-Name_First: Alberto Author-X-Name_Last: Chong; Hugo Ñopo Author-X-Name_First: Hugo Author-X-Name_Last: Ñopo; Juan Camilo Cardenas Author-X-Name_First: Juan Camilo Author-X-Name_Last: Cardenas |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the extent to which individuals trust, reciprocate, cooperate and pool risk by using a battery of field experiments containing the trust game, the voluntary contributions mechanism and the risk pooling game; applied in six capital cities in Latin America. The results suggest that: (i) on average, the propensity to trust and cooperate among Latin Americans is remarkably similar to that found in other regions of the world; (ii) expectations about the behavior of other players are the main driver of trust, reciprocity and cooperation; and (iii) behaviors involving socialization, trust and cooperation are closely interconnected. |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4577&r=dev |
| By: | Eliana La Ferrara Author-X-Name_First: Eliana Author-X-Name_Last: La Ferrara; Alberto Chong Author-X-Name_First: Alberto Author-X-Name_Last: Chong; Suzanne Duryea Author-X-Name_First: Suzanne Author-X-Name_Last: Duryea |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on fertility choices in Brazil, a country where soap operas (novelas) portray families that are much smaller than in reality, to study the effects of television on individual behavior. Using Census data for the period 1970-1991, the paper finds that women living in areas covered by the Globo signal have significantly lower fertility. The effect is strongest for women of lower socioeconomic status and for women in the central and late phases of their fertility cycle. Finally, the paper provides evidence that novelas, rather than television in general, affected individual choices. |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4573&r=dev |
| By: | Ramon Espinasa |
| Abstract: | As a region the Caribbean countries are net exporters of hydrocarbons. However, all exports of natural gas and crude oil are concentrated in one country, Trinidad and Tobago. The rest of the region taken as a whole is net importer of hydrocarbons. The largest countries in the region are heavily dependent on imported crude oil and products as their main source of primary energy. The trend has intensified over recent years. Net-importing countries in the region have more than doubled their annual per capita consumption of oil over the last two decades. Trinidad and Tobago could supply the region’s hydrocarbon needs. However, very little effort has been made by the importing countries to substitute gas from Trinidad and Tobago for oil from other extra regional sources. There are a number of initiatives under way to reduce the region’s dependence on imported hydrocarbons: Eastern Caribbean Gas Pipeline (ECGP); Eastern Caribbean Geothermal Energy Project (Geo-Caraïbes); Caribbean Renewable Energy Development Programme (CREDP); Petrocaribe Energy Cooperation Agreement and Production of Biofuels. The IDB together with CARICOM and the Caribbean Development Bank are concentrating efforts in to promote the development of biofuels in the region, with specific programs in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. Furthermore, there individual country efforts to implement mid-term plans to increase their energy efficiency and diversify their Energy Matrices away from oil, among these countries it is worth highlighting: Jamaica, Guyana and Barbados. Finally, the IDB is sponsoring a number of technical studies with the objectives of developing renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency. Beyond these initiatives, an avenue that is worth exploring is enhancing regional integration, especially through small-scale trading of natural gas between Trinidad and Tobago and the rest of the Caribbean. |
| JEL: | F15 N76 O54 Q41 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:2010&r=dev |
| By: | Eduardo A. Cavallo Author-X-Name_First: Eduardo A. Author-X-Name_Last: Cavallo; Alberto Cavallo Author-X-Name_First: Alberto Author-X-Name_Last: Cavallo |
| Abstract: | This paper provides empirical evidence for the importance of institutions in determining the outcome of crises on long-term growth. Once unobserved country-specific effects and other sources of endogeneity are accounted for, political institutions affect growth through their interaction with crises. The results suggest that only countries with strong democracies, high levels of political competition and external constraints on government can potentially benefit from crises and use them as opportunities to enhance long-term output per capita and productivity growth. |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4589&r=dev |
| By: | David Bravo Author-X-Name_First: David Author-X-Name_Last: Bravo; Claudia Sanhueza Author-X-Name_First: Claudia Author-X-Name_Last: Sanhueza; Sergio Urzua Author-X-Name_First: Sergio Author-X-Name_Last: Urzua |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes gender differences in three Chilean professional labor markets, Business, Law and Medicine, utilizing a new and rich data set collected for this purpose. The results show that differences in wages attributed to gender are only present in the legal profession. In Business/Economics, a vector of current family condition eliminates the gender effect and in Medicine, taking into account hours worked, size of firm and region also eliminates gender differences. The paper further shows that individuals’ perceived locus of control (internal or external) is relevant in explaining the distribution of earnings. |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:3248&r=dev |
| By: | Adama Konseiga (GREDI, Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | Parental migration is often found to be negatively correlated with child health in Africa, yet the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. The paper uses a dataset that provides information from the respondent parent on child morbidity both in the rural and urban settings. Households first endogenously determine whether they will gain from participating in migration and, if they do, whether they will leave the children behind or not. The final choice is made to ensure the optimal survival chances for the child. This paper contributes to understanding the health consequences of raising the children in the context of increasing urban poverty in Nairobi, Kenya. The findings indicate that households who migrated together with their children in the slums of Nairobi experience higher child morbidity (43 per cent have at least one sick child in the last one month) as compared to households who leave children in their upcountry homes (31 per cent of morbidity rate). Even though children of migrants are safer upcountry, not all households can afford this strategy. Households are able to choose this strategy only if they have a strong social support network in their origin community and/or they are big size households. This is an important finding in targeting the Millennium Development Goals. |
| Keywords: | Childhood morbidity, Split migration, Incidental truncation, Informal settlements Nairobi, Kenya |
| JEL: | C31 D13 I12 R23 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:08-07&r=dev |
| By: | Pinar Guven Uslu (Norwich Business School and ESRC Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia); Thuy Pham Linh (Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | The health sector reform programme which began in Vietnam in 1989 in order to improve the efficiency of the health system has altered the way in which Vietnamese hospitals operate. The programme put the spotlight on input savings. This study aims to examine the relative efficiency of hospitals during the health reform process and assess - by looking at the relative efficiency of hospitals - the effects of the regulatory changes. The study employs the DEA two-stage approach referring to data from 101 general public hospitals over the period 1998-2006. The study revealed that there was evidence of improvement in the productivity of Vietnamese hospitals over the period 1998-2006, with a progress in total factor productivity of 1.4% per year. Furthermore, the differences in hospital efficiency can be attributed to both the regulatory changes and hospital-specific characteristics. The user feesand autonomy measures were found to increase technical efficiency. Provincial hospitals were revealed to be more technically efficient than their central counterparts and hospitals located in the North East, South East and Mekong River Delta regions performed better that hospitals from other regions. |
| Keywords: | changes in public policy, health services, data envelopment analysis, hospital, regulatory changes |
| JEL: | I18 I19 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ccp:wpaper:wp08-30&r=dev |
| By: | Aslihan Arslan; J. Edward Taylor |
| Abstract: | Shadow prices guide farmers' resource allocations, but for subsistence farmers growing traditional crops, shadow prices may bear little relationship with market prices. We econometrically estimate shadow prices of maize using data from a nationally representative survey of rural households in Mexico. Shadow prices are significantly higher than the market price for traditional but not improved maize varieties. They are particularly high in the indigenous areas of southern and southeastern Mexico, indicating large de facto incentives to maintain traditional maize there |
| Keywords: | Shadow prices, non-market values, supply response, traditional crops, onfarm, conservation, Mexico |
| JEL: | O12 O13 Q12 Q39 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1457&r=dev |
| By: | Shafaeddin, Mehdi; Gallaher, Kevin |
| Abstract: | Abstract Previous work has shown that the results of both China and Mexico’s export-led market reforms over the past quarter century have been strikingly different. In contrast to China, Mexico has not managed to increase the value added of its exports of manufactured goods and has subsequently had a difficult time competing with China in world markets. Building on this previous work, in this paper we conduct a comparative analysis of the role of government policies in industrial learning and the development of capabilities of indigenous firms in Mexico and China in order to shed light on why China is so outperforming Mexico. We find that Mexico and China have had starkly different approaches to economic reform in this area. Mexico’s approach to reform has been a “neo-liberal” one, whereas China’s could be described as “neo-developmental.” Mexico’s hands-off approach to learning has resulted in a lack of development of endogenous capacity of domestic firms, little transfer of technology, negligible progress in the upgrading of industrial production, and little increase in value added of exports. By contrast, China has deployed a hands-on approach of targeting and nurturing domestic firms through a gradual and trial and error led set of government policies. |
| Keywords: | International trade; development; competitiveness; value added; government policy; assembly operations |
| JEL: | O38 O25 O34 I0 O32 L60 O14 L63 N65 O30 F10 L52 I00 O20 O31 P52 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11041&r=dev |
| By: | Aureo de Paula (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Gil Shapira (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Petra Todd (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Many HIV testing programs in Africa and elsewhere aim to reduce risk-taking behaviors by providing individuals with information about their own HIV status. This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect risky sexual behavior using data from married couples living in three regions of Malawi. Risky behavior is measured as the propensity to engage in extramarital affairs or to not use condoms. The empirical analysis is based on two panel surveys for years 2004 and 2006 from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP) and from an experimental HIV testing intervention carried out in 2004 that provided randomized incentives for picking up test results. Most individuals participating in the MDICP testing learned that they were HIV negative and a small fraction that they were positive. Controlling for potential endogeneity between beliefs and risk-taking, we find that downward revisions in the subjective belief of being HIV positive lead to decreases in the propensity to engage in extra-marital affairs but have no effect on condom use. These results are generally supported by survey questions that directly elicited from respondents how participating in testing altered their behavior. We show that the estimates provide a lower bound in the presence of measurement error in extra-marital affairs. |
| Keywords: | Beliefs, AIDS, Malawi |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2008–10–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:08-035&r=dev |
| By: | Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D.; Sebastian Vollmer; Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso |
| Abstract: | Latin American countries have lost competitiveness in world markets in comparison to China over the last two decades. The main purpose of this study is to examine the causes of this development. To this end an augmented Dornbusch-type “Ricardian” model is estimated using panel data. The explanatory variables considered are productivity, unit labor costs, unit values, trade costs, price levels, and real exchange rates; all variables are evaluated in relative terms. Due to data restrictions, China’s relative exports (to the US, Argentina, Japan, Korea, the UK, Germany, and Spain) will be compared to Mexico’s exports for a number of sectors over a limited period of eleven years. Panel and pooled estimation techniques (SUR estimation, panel Feasible Generalized Least Squares (panel/pooled FGLS)) will be utilized to better control for country-specific effects and correlation over time. A simulation underlines the positive impact of relative real exchange rate advantages on relative exports for the textile sector. Standardized ß-coefficients identify relative real exchange rates, relative cost levels, and relative unit values as the drivers of competitive advantage in the textile sector. |
| Keywords: | “Ricardian” model of trade; panel data models; panel Feasible Generalized Least Squares; Seemingly Unrelated (SUR) estimation. |
| JEL: | C23 F11 F14 |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:cegedp:74&r=dev |
| By: | Johannes Gräb (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen / Germany); Michael Grimm (ISS, The Hague / The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | The literature shows that regional disparities in growth and poverty are often relatively high, that these regional disparities do not necessarily disappear as the economies grow and develop and that these disparities are itself in many cases an important driver of the overall performance of an economy. In this paper we make use of the advantage of a multilevel random coefficient model to explain spatial disparities in incomes among Burkinab`e households. Our findings show that it is not a geographical concentration of people with poor endowments that make areas poor in Burkina Faso. Household income disparities are largely driven by differences in neighborhood endowments and to a smaller extent by provincial or regional characteristics. We conclude that the policy should target small scale geographical units, such as villages. Providing infrastructure, enhancing the functioning of labor markets and fostering demand for education can compensate for climatical disadvantages. |
| Keywords: | Spatial inequality, poverty, multilevel modeling, decomposition, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | C21 I32 O12 R12 |
| Date: | 2008–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:iaidps:173&r=dev |
| By: | Stephan Klasen (Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen / Germany); Francesca Lamanna |
| Abstract: | Using cross-country and panel regressions, we investigate to what extent gender gaps in education and employment (proxied using gender gaps in labor force participation) reduce economic growth. Using most recent data and investigating a long time period (1960-2000), we update the results of previous studies on education gaps on growth and extend the analysis to employment gaps using panel data. We find that gender gaps in education and employment significantly reduce economic growth. The combined ‘costs’ of education and employment gaps in Middle East and North Africa and South Asia amount respectively to 0.9-1.7 and 0.1- 1.6 percentage point differences in growth compared to East Asia. Gender gaps in employment appear to have an increasing effect on economic growth differences between regions, with the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia suffering from slower growth in female employment. |
| Keywords: | gender inequality, growth, education, employment, discrimination |
| JEL: | J7 J16 O4 |
| Date: | 2008–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:iaidps:175&r=dev |
| By: | Jennifer Coates; James Wirth; Fayera Abdissa; Berhanu Wendeferew; Mulugeta Girma |
| Keywords: | agriculture, food policy, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | I38 Q18 |
| Date: | 2008–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsn:wpaper:39&r=dev |