|
on Development |
| By: | James W. Boudreau (University of Connecticut; University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamic impact of matching on economic mobility and growth. To account for complex interactions over time, experimental economies of heterogeneous agents are simulated with the match process acting as a fitness selection mechanism. Even with perfect information and substantial variety in both offspring and entrants, two-sided matching inevitably causes the population to evolve into stratified groups. Corrective measures are possible to improve mobility, but by altering the path of market evolution, a policy may have unintended negative impacts on growth and inequality. |
| Keywords: | Matching, stratification, path dependence. |
| JEL: | C78 E24 O43 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2008-30&r=dev |
| By: | Satish Chand and Michael A. Clemens |
| Abstract: | Does the emigration of highly-skilled workers deplete local human capital? The answer is not obvious if migration prospects induce human capital formation. We analyze a unique natural quasi-experiment in the Republic of the Fiji Islands, where political shocks have provoked one of the largest recorded exoduses of skilled workers from a developing country. Mass emigration began unexpectedly and has occurred only in a well-defined subset of the population, creating a treatment group that foresaw likely emigration and two different quasi-control groups that did not. We use rich census and administrative microdata to address a range of concerns about experimental validity. This allows plausible causal attribution of post-shock changes in human capital accumulation to changes in emigration patterns. We show that high rates of emigration by tertiary-educated Fiji Islanders not only raised investment in tertiary education in Fiji; they moreover raised the stock of tertiary educated people in Fiji—net of departures. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idc:wpaper:idec08-05&r=dev |
| By: | Helmut Reisen |
| Abstract: | New actors and instruments have increased the complexity of the international development-finance architecture Efficient aid delivery confronts challenges: multilateral duplication, mission creep and loss of leverage. Specific measures of multilaterals’ contributions to the MDGs could promote accountability and reduce complexity. |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:72-en&r=dev |
| By: | Loukas Balafoutas; Kiichiro Fukasaku |
| Abstract: | Globalisation has brought benefits to the economies in the Black Sea Economic Co-operation (BSEC) and Central Asia (CA), but compounded volatility and uncertainty associated with the transition to market economy. Labour markets have been put under pressure, as BSEC-CA countries compete on the international arena. One important form of labour market adjustment has been a large amount of migration flows within the BSEC-CA region and to the neighbouring countries. |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:68-en&r=dev |
| By: | Denis Drechsler |
| Abstract: | Migration can strengthen the development process in sending countries. Potential gains from migration are currently insufficiently utilised. More coherence between various policy domains – in particular related to migration, human resource development and the labour market – is a critical component of an improved migration management. |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:69-en&r=dev |
| By: | Adams, Richard H., Jr. |
| Abstract: | What causes developing countries to receive different levels of international remittances? This paper addresses this question by using new data on such variables as the skill composition of migrants, poverty, and interest and exchange rates to examine the determinants of remittances. The paper finds that the skill composition of migrants does matter in remittance determination. Countries which export a larger share of high-skilled (educated) migrants receive less per capita remittances than countries which export a larger proportion of low-skilled migrants. It also finds that the level of poverty in a labor-sending country does not have a positive impact on the level of remittances received. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Remittances,Debt Markets,Access to Finance,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4583&r=dev |
| By: | Sietz, Diana; Boschutz, Maria; Klein, Richard JT; Lotsch, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Based on a literature review and expert interviews, this paper analyzes the most important climate impacts on development goals and explores relevant institutions in the context of mainstreaming climate adaptation into development assistance in Mozambique. Climate variability and change can significantly hinder progress toward attaining the Millennium Development Goals and poverty aggravates the country's climate vulnerability. Because Mozambique is one of the major recipients of official development assistance in the world, there is a clear interest in ensuring that the risks of climate impacts are incorporated into the country's development investments. A screening of donor activities at the sub-national level shows that a high share of development assistance is invested in climate-sensitive sectors, partly in areas that are particularly exposed to droughts, floods, and cyclones. The authors find that Mozambique has a supportive legislative environment and donors have a high awareness of climate risks. However, limited individual, organizational, networking, and financial capacity constrain mainstreaming initiatives. Given strong limitations at the national level, bilateral and multilateral donors can play a key role in fostering institutional capacity in Mozambique. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics&Policies,Common Property Resource Development,Global Environment Facility,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2008–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4711&r=dev |
| By: | Niimi, Yoko; Pham, Thai Hung; Reilly, Barry |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of remittance behavior for Vietnam using data from the 2004 Vietnam Migration Survey on internal migrants. It considers how, among other things, the vulnerability of a migrant's life at the destination, their link to relatives back home, and the time spent at the destination affect remittances. The paper finds that migrants act as risk-averse economic agents and send remittances back to the household of origin as part of an insurance exercise in the face of economic uncertainty. Remittances are also found to be driven by a migrant's labor market earnings level. The paper highlights the important role of remittances in providing an effective means of risk-coping and mutual support within the family. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Access to Finance,Gender and Development,Debt Markets,Remittances |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4586&r=dev |
| By: | Ferreira , Francisco H. G.; Gignoux, Jeremie |
| Abstract: | What part of the inequality observed in a particular country is due to unequal opportunities, rather than to differences in individual efforts or luck? This paper estimates a lower bound for the opportunity share of inequality in labor earnings, household income per capita and household consumption per capita in six Latin American countries. Following John Roemer, the authors associate inequality of opportunity with outcome differences that can be accounted for by morally irrelevant pre-determined circumstances, such as race, gender, place of birth, and family background. Thus defined, unequal opportunities account for between 24 and 50 percent of inequality in consumption expenditure in the sample. Brazil and Central America are more opportunity-unequal than Colombia, Ecuador, or Peru."Opportunity profiles,"which identify the social groups with the most limited opportunity sets, are shown to be distinct from poverty profiles: ethnic origin and the geography of birth are markedly more important as determinants of opportunity deprivation than of outcome poverty, particularly in Brazil, Guatemala, and Peru. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Rural Poverty Reduction,Access to Finance,Equity and Development,Services&Transfers to Poor |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4659&r=dev |
| By: | Somanathan, Aparnaa |
| Abstract: | Controversy exists over whether the estimated effects of schooling on health care use reflect the influence of unobserved factors. Existing estimates may overstate the schooling effect because of the failure to control for unobserved variables or may be downwardly biased due to measurement error. This paper contributes to the resolution of this debate by adopting an instrumental variable approach to estimate the impact of female schooling on maternal health care use. A school construction program in Indonesia in the 1970s is used to construct an instrumental variable for education. The choice between use and non-use of maternal health services is estimated as a function of schooling and other variables. Data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey are used for this paper. Standard regression models estimated in the paper indicate that each additional year of schooling does indeed have a significant, positive effect on maternal health care use. Instrumental variable estimates of the schooling effect are larger. The results suggest that schooling has a positive impact on maternal health care use even after eliminating the effect of unobserved variables and measurement error. This paper moves beyond previous work on the impact of education on health care use by adopting an IV approach to address the problem of endogeneity and measurement error. IV methods have been used widely in the labour economics literature to examine the impact of schooling on wages and other labour market outcomes but rarely to estimate the effect of schooling on health outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population Policies,Health Systems Development&Reform,Gender and Health,Primary Education |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4625&r=dev |
| By: | Gauss, Martin |
| Abstract: | This report provides an overview of how constructed wetlands serve as natural wastewater treatment systems. It focuses especially on the subsurface horizontal flow type-a technology that has high potential for small and medium-size communities because of its simplicity, performance reliability, and low operation and maintenance requirements. The ability of this wetland to reduce pathogens renders the effluent suitable for irrigation of certain crop species if additional health and environmental protection measures are taken. This report describes several experiences with constructed wetland schemes in Central and South America: a full-scale pilot plant in Nicaragua, a community-managed constructed wetland scheme in El Salvador, and other systems in Colombia, Brazil, and Peru. Although the report focuses on technology issues, it stresses the importance of adequate arrangements for operation and maintains to guarantee the long-term treatment performance of the constructed wetland scheme. Furthermore, community participation and complementary actions such as promoting hygiene are crucial elements for sustainable wastewater treatment projects and maximization of health and environmental benefits. |
| Keywords: | Wetlands,Water and Industry,Wastewater Treatment,Sanitation and Sewerage,Water Supply and Systems |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:44120&r=dev |
| By: | Demombynes, Gabriel; Metzler, Johannes |
| Abstract: | There are several possible explanations for the observed changes in inequality, the returns to education, and the gap between the wages of informal and formal salaried workers in Argentina over the period 1980-2002. Largely due to the lack of evidence for competing explanations, skill-biased technical change is the most likely explanation for the increases in the returns to education that occurred in the 1990s. Using a semi-parametric re-weighting variance decomposition technique and data from the Permanent Household Survey, the authors show that during the same period there was an increase in the returns to unobserved skill. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that skill-biased technical change has been a main driver of increases in inequality in Argentina. The pattern of changes suggests that the growth in returns to unobserved skill may have been partly responsible for the relative deterioration of informal salaried wages during the 1990s. |
| Keywords: | ,Labor Markets,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Primary Education,Education For All |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4624&r=dev |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits unique information on cognitive ability to examine the importance of schooling and non-schooling cognitive skills for heterogeneous individuals using instrumental variables estimation. Using a binary instrument based on the 1981 reform in Chile, the authors find that the main beneficiaries of the reform were those who at the time were pupils in basic schooling (ages 6-13). For this treated group of pupils, only a negligible part of the estimated return to schooling is due to classical ability bias. The labor market reward to an additional year of schooling is a measure of the"true"non-cognitive return to schooling. However, once the treated group is expanded to include secondary school students, the pure return to schooling decreases dramatically, while the return to schooling cognitive and non-schooling cognitive skills increases accordingly, suggesting that a large part of the estimated return in an earnings function is due to classical ability bias. For this treated group (mixture of basic school and secondary school age students), the labor market rewarded cognitive skills (especially those acquired through schooling) significantly. |
| Keywords: | Education For All,Primary Education,Secondary Education,Teaching and Learning,Access&Equity in Basic Education |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4617&r=dev |
| By: | Oosterbeek, Hessel; Ponce, Juan; Schady, Norbert |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence about the impact on school enrollment of a program in Ecuador that gives cash transfers to the 40 percent poorest families. The evaluation design consists of a randomized experiment for families around the first quintile of the poverty index and of a regression discontinuity design for families around the second quintile of this index, which is the program's eligibility threshold. This allows us to compare results from two different credible identification methods, and to investigate whether the impact varies with families'poverty level. Around the first quintile of the poverty index the impact is positive while it is equal to zero around the second quintile. This suggests that for the poorest families the program lifts a credit constraint while this is not the case for families close to the eligibility threshold. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Access to Finance,Health Systems Development&Reform,Poverty Reduction Strategies,Primary Education |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4645&r=dev |
| By: | Verner, Dorte |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes poverty in Haiti based on the first Living Conditions Survey of 7,186 households covering the whole country and representative at the regional level. Using a USD1 a day extreme poverty line, the analysis reveals that 49 percent of Haitian households live in absolute poverty. Twenty, 56, and 58 percent of households in metropolitan, urban, and rural areas, respectively, are poor. At the regional level, poverty is especially extensive in the northeastern and northwestern regions. Access to assets such as education and infrastructure services is highly unequal and strongly correlated with poverty. Moreover, children in indigent households attain less education than children in nonpoor households. Controlling for individual and household characteristics, location, and region, living in a rural area does not by itself affect the probability of being poor. But in rural areas female headed households are more likely to experience poverty than male headed households. Domestic migration and education are both key factors that reduce the likelihood of falling into poverty. Employment is essential to improve livelihoods and both the farm and nonfarm sector play a key role. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Achieving Shared Growth, |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4571&r=dev |
| By: | Langbein, Laura; Knack, Stephen |
| Abstract: | Aggregate indexes of the quality of governance, covering large samples of countries, are widely used in research and in aid policy. Few studies examine the validity of these indexes, however. This paper partially fills this gap by examining empirically the dimensionality of the Worldwide Governance Indicators. The six indexes purportedly measure distinct concepts of control of corruption, rule of law, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, political stability, and voice and accountability. Using standard statistical techniques for testing measurement validity, the analysis concludes that the six indexes do not discriminate usefully among different aspects of governance. Rather, each of the indexes merely reflects perceptions of the quality of governance more broadly. An implication of the findings is that the Worldwide Governance Indicator indexes are frequently misused in research and policy applications, where it is commonly assumed that the indexes provide distinct measures of different aspects of the quality of governance. A further implication is that Transparency International's even more widely-known aggregate index similarly reflects perceptions not only of corruption, as intended, but of the quality of governance more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Governance Indicators,National Governance,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences,Information Security&Privacy |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4669&r=dev |
| By: | McGregor, Jorge Luis |
| Abstract: | A management model provides the framework in which the roles and responsibilities of all the participatory forces that have a stake in the water supply and sanitation services sector are defined. In an effort to make service providers more accountable to citizens and due to the need to empower local institutions, most of the Latin American Region is in the process of decentralizing responsibility for key areas of the service delivery to the local areas. This document presents the lessons learned from the process carried out in Peruvian small towns, where the local authorities are empowering local institutions so that the actors and the roles they assume are more active in the decision making process. |
| Keywords: | Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Housing&Human Habitats,Urban Water Supply and Sanitation,Education for Development (superceded),Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:44093&r=dev |
| By: | Fofack, Hippolyte |
| Abstract: | Since the industrial revolution, advances in science and technology have continuously accounted for most of the growth and wealth accumulation in leading industrialized economies. In recent years, the contribution of technological progress to growth and welfare improvement has increased even further, especially with the globalization process which has been characterized by exponential growth in exports of manufactured goods. This paper establishes the existence of a technology trap in Sub-Saharan Africa. It shows that the widening income and welfare gap between Sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of world is largely accounted for by the technology trap responsible for the poverty trap. This result is supported by empirical evidence which suggests that if countries in Sub-Saharan Africa were using the same level of technology enjoyed by industrialized countries income levels in Sub-Saharan Africa would be significantly higher. The result is robust, even after controlling for institutional, macroeconomic instability and volatility factors. Consistent with standard one-sector neoclassical growth models, this suggests that uniform convergence to a worldwide technology frontier may lead to income convergence in the spherical space. Overcoming the technology trap in Sub-Saharan Africa may therefore be essential to achieving the Millennium Development Goals and evolving toward global convergence in the process of economic development. |
| Keywords: | Technology Industry,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,ICT Policy and Strategies,E-Business |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4582&r=dev |
| By: | Moreno-Dodson, Blanca |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to understand better, at the empirical level, how public spending contributes to growth by focusing on both the level and composition of public spending, in connection to the dynamics of GDP per capita growth. It attempts to answer two specific questions: (a) What are the policy conditions under which public spending contributes positively to growth? and (b) What are the public spending components that have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on growth? The analysis is applied to a sample of seven fast-growing developing countries: Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Botswana, and Mauritius, which have been among the top performers in the world in terms of GDP per capita growth during the period (1960-2006). The rationale for this country sample selection is twofold. The first hypothesis is that, given their positive growth achievements over a relatively long time period, perhaps it is more straightforward to establish a link to public spending in those countries. Second, it is expected that the findings of the analysis will provide lessons regarding the level and composition of public spending that can be useful for other countries where growth has been less rapid. Assessing what role public spending has played in a dynamic growth context may indeed be enlightening for other cases as well. The paper is structured as follows. The first section is an introduction that provides relevant facts and information about the seven countries during the period of analysis, based on seven individual country case studies. Section II presents the theoreticalbackground behind the empirical analysis. Section III focuses on the empirical methodology, function specification, and variables selected. Section IV is dedicated to the results obtained with the cross-country analysis and some specific country results, as well as some comparisons with previous findings by other authors. Finally, Section V draws policy implications and concludes. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Debt Markets,Achieving Shared Growth, |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4663&r=dev |
| By: | Herrera, Santiago; Vincent, Bruno |
| Abstract: | Recent estimates of the welfare cost of consumption volatility find that it is significant in developing nations, where it may reach an equivalent of reducing consumption by 10 percent per year. Hence, examining the determinants of consumption volatility is of utmost relevance. Based on cross-country data for the period 1960-2005, the paper explains consumption volatility using three sets of variables: one refers to the volatility of income and the persistence of income shocks; the second set of variables refers to policy volatility, considering the volatility of public spending and the size of government; while the third set captures the ability of agents to smooth shocks, and includes the depth of the domestic financial markets as well as the degree of integration to international capital markets. To allow for potential endogenous regressors, in particular the volatility of fiscal policy and the size of government, the system is estimated using the instrumental variables method. The results indicate that, besides income volatility, the variables with the largest and most robust impact on consumption volatility are government size and the volatility of public spending. Results also show that deeper and more stable domestic financial markets reduce the volatility of consumption, and that more integrated financial markets to the international capital markets are associated with lower volatility of consumption. |
| Keywords: | Economic Conditions and Volatility,Emerging Markets,Economic Stabilization,Economic Theory&Research,Currencies and Exchange Rates |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4633&r=dev |
| By: | Das, Jishnu; Zajonc, Tristan |
| Abstract: | This paper uses student answers to publicly released questions from an international testing agency together with statistical methods from Item Response Theory to place secondary students from two Indian states -Orissa and Rajasthan -on a worldwide distribution of mathematics achievement. These two states fall below 43 of the 51 countries for which data exist. The bottom 5 percent of children rank higher than the bottom 5 percent in only three countries-South Africa, Ghana and Saudi Arabia. But not all students test poorly. Inequality in the test-score distribution for both states is next only to South Africa in the worldwide ranking exercise. Consequently, and to the extent that these two states can represent India, the two statements"for every ten top performers in the United States there are four in India"and"for every ten low performers in the United States there are two hundred in India"are both consistent with the data. The combination of India's size and large variance in achievement give both the perceptions that India is shining even as Bharat, the vernacular for India, is drowning. Comparable estimates of inequalities in learning are the building blocks for substantive research on the correlates of earnings inequality in India and other low-income countries; the methods proposed here allow for independent testing exercises to build up such data by linking scores to internationally comparable tests. |
| Keywords: | Secondary Education,Educational Sciences,Teaching and Learning,Primary Education,Tertiary Education |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4644&r=dev |
| By: | Fung , K.C.; Korhonen, Iikka; Li, Ke; Ng, Francis |
| Abstract: | China has emerged as one of the top recipients of foreign direct investment in the world. Meanwhile, the successful transition experience of many Central and Eastern European countries has also allowed them to attract an increasing share of global foreign direct investment. In this paper, the authors use a panel data set to investigate whether foreign direct investment flows to these two regions are complements, substitutes, or independent of each other. Taking into account the role of host country characteristics - such as market size, degree of trade liberalization, and human capital - the authors find no evidence that foreign direct investment flows to one region are at the expense of those to the other. Instead, the results suggest that foreign direct investment flows are driven by distinct regional production networks (and thus are largely independent of each other) and the development of global supply chains (indicating that foreign direct investment flows are complementary). |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Foreign Direct Investment,Emerging Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Investment and Investment Climate |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4689&r=dev |
| By: | Edmonds, Eric V.; Schady, Norbert |
| Abstract: | Does child labor decrease as household income rises? This question has important implications for the design of policy on child labor. This paper focuses on a program of unconditional cash transfers in Ecuador. It argues that the effect of a small increase in household income on child labor should be concentrated among children most vulnerable to transitioning from schooling to work. The paper finds support for this hypothesis. Cash transfers have small effects on child time allocation at peak school attendance ages and among children already out of school at baseline, but have large impacts at ages and in groups most likely to leave school and start work. Additional income is associated with a decline in paid work that takes place away from the child's home. Declines in work for pay are associated with increases in school enrollment, especially for girls. Increases in schooling are matched by an increase in education expenditures that appears to absorb most of the cash transfer. However, total household expenditures do not increase with the transfer and appear to fall in households most impacted by the transfer because of the decline in child labor. |
| Keywords: | Street Children,Youth and Governance,Gender and Law,Labor Policies,Primary Education |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4702&r=dev |
| By: | Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Schady, Norbert |
| Abstract: | Do aggregate economic shocks, such as those caused by macroeconomic crises or droughts, reduce child human capital? The answer to this question has important implications for public policy. If shocks reduce investments in children, they may transmit poverty from one generation to the next. This paper uses a simple framework to analyze the effects of aggregate economic shocks on child schooling and health. It shows that the expected effects are ambiguous, because of a tension between income and substitution effects. The paper then reviews the recent empirical literature on the subject. In richer countries, like the United States, child health and education outcomes are counter-cyclical: they improve during recessions. In poorer countries, mostly in Africa and low-income Asia, the outcomes are pro-cyclical: infant mortality rises, and school enrollment and nutrition fall during recessions. In the middle-income countries of Latin America, the picture is more nuanced: health outcomes are generally pro-cyclical, and education outcomes counter-cyclical. Each of these findings is consistent with the simple conceptual framework. The paper discusses possible implications for expenditure allocation. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Health Systems Development&Reform,Labor Policies |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4701&r=dev |
| By: | Shilpi, Forhad |
| Abstract: | Using household level data from Bangladesh, this paper examines the differences in the rates of return to household attributes over the entire welfare distribution. The empirical evidence uncovers substantial differences in returns between an integrated region contiguous to the country's main growth centers, and a less integrated region cut-off from those centers by major rivers. The evidence suggests that households with better observed and unobserved attributes (such as education and ability) are concentrated in the integrated region where returns are higher. Within each region, mobility of workers seems to equalize returns at the lower half of the distribution. The natural border created by the rivers appears to hinder migration, causing returns differences between the regions to persist. To reduce regional inequality in welfare in Bangladesh, the results highlight the need for improving connectivity between the regions, and for investing in portable assets of the poor (such as human capital). |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Access to Finance,Rural Poverty Reduction,Poverty Lines,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4616&r=dev |
| By: | Gibson, John; McKenzie, David; Rohorua, Halahingano |
| Abstract: | Temporary migration programs for unskilled workers are increasingly being proposed as a way to both relieve labor shortages in developed countries and aid development in sending countries without entailing many of the costs associated with permanent migration. New Zealand's new Recognized Seasonal Employer program is designed to enable unskilled workers from the Pacific Islands to work in horticulture and viticulture in New Zealand for a period of up to seven months. However, the development impact on a sending country will depend not only on how many workers participate, but also on who participates. This paper uses new survey data from Tonga to examine the process of selecting workers for the Recognized Seasonal Employer program, and to analyze how pro-poor the recruitment process has been to date. The findings show that recruited workers come from largely agricultural backgrounds, and have lower average incomes and schooling levels than Tongans not participating in the program. Comparing the characteristics of program workers with those of Tongans applying to permanently migrate to New Zealand through the Pacific Access Category, the program workers are more rural and less educated. The program therefore seems to have succeeded in creating new opportunities for relatively poor and unskilled Tongans to work in New Zealand. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Labor Markets,Work&Working Conditions,,Tertiary Education |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4698&r=dev |
| By: | Banerjee, Abhijit V.; Banerji, Rukmini; Duflo, Esther; Glennerster, Rachel; Khemani, Stuti |
| Abstract: | Participation of beneficiaries in the monitoring of public services is increasingly seen as key to improving their efficiency. In India, the current government flagship program on universal primary education organizes community members, specifically locally elected leaders and parents of children enrolled in public schools, into committees and gives these powers over resource allocation, monitoring and management of school performance. However, in a baseline survey this paper finds that people were not aware of the existence of these committees and their potential for improving education. The paper evaluates three different interventions to encourage beneficiaries'participation: providing information, training community members in a new testing tool, and training and organizing volunteers to hold remedial reading camps for illiterate children. The authors find that these interventions had no impact on community involvement in public schools, and no impact on teacher effort or learning outcomes in those schools. However, the intervention that trained volunteers to teach children to read had large impact on activity outside public schools -- local youths volunteered to be trained, and children who attended these camps substantially improved their reading skills. These results suggest that citizens face substantial constraints in participating to improve the public education system, even when they care about education and are willing to do something to improve it. |
| Keywords: | Primary Education,Education For All,Teaching and Learning,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Tertiary Education |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4584&r=dev |
| By: | Fehr, Ernst; Hoff, Karla; Kshetramade, Mayuresh |
| Abstract: | In a wide variety of settings, spiteful preferences would constitute an obstacle to cooperation, trade, and thus economic development. This paper shows that spiteful preferences - the desire to reduce another's material payoff for the mere purpose of increasing one's relative payoff - are surprisingly widespread in experiments conducted in one of the least developed regions in India (Uttar Pradesh). In a one-shot trust game, the authors find that a large majority of subjects punish cooperative behavior although such punishment clearly increases inequality and decreases the payoffs of both subjects. In experiments to study coordination and to measure social preferences, the findings reveal empirical patterns suggesting that the willingness to reduce another's material payoff - either for the sake of achieving more equality or for the sake of being ahead - is stronger among individuals belonging to high castes than among those belonging to low castes. Because extreme social hierarchies are typically accompanied by a culture that stresses status-seeking, it is plausible that the observed social preference patterns are at least partly shaped by this culture. Thus, an exciting question for future research is the extent to which different institutions and cultures produce preferences that are conducive or detrimental to economic development. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Access to Finance,Debt Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Gender and Social Development |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4619&r=dev |
| By: | Osgood, Daniel E.; Suarez, Pablo; Hansen, James; Carriquiry, Miguel; Mishra, Ashok |
| Abstract: | Climate variability poses a severe threat to subsistence farmers in southern Africa. Two different approaches have emerged in recent years to address these threats: the use of seasonal precipitation forecasts for risk reduction (for example, choosing seed varieties that can perform well for expected rainfall conditions), and the use of innovative financial instruments for risk sharing (for example, index-based weather insurance bundled to microcredit for agricultural inputs). So far these two approaches have remained entirely separated. This paper explores the integration of seasonal forecasts into an ongoing pilot insurance scheme for smallholder farmers in Malawi. The authors propose a model that adjusts the amount of high-yield agricultural inputs given to farmers to favorable or unfavorable rainfall conditions expected for the season. Simulation results - combining climatic, agricultural, and financial models - indicate that this approach substantially increases production in La Niña years (when droughts are very unlikely for the study area), and reduces losses in El Niño years (when insufficient rainfall often damages crops). Cumulative gross revenues are more than twice as large for the proposed scheme, given modeling assumptions. The resulting accumulation of wealth can reduce long-term vulnerability to drought for participating farmers. Conclusions highlight the potential of this approach for adaptation to climate variability and change in southern Africa. |
| Keywords: | Hazard Risk Management,Debt Markets,,Rural Poverty Reduction,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4651&r=dev |
| By: | Magnoli Bocchi, Alessandro; Pontara, Nicola; Fall, Khayar; Tejada, Catalina M.; Cuervo, Pablo Gallego |
| Abstract: | Mauritania is a resource-rich developing country. As many other African nations, it will not reach most of the Millennium Development Goals, unless the authorities commit to accelerating progress. To succeed by 2015, the government needs to: mobilize additional financial resources, introduce policy changes at the sector level, and strengthen the links between strategic objectives and the budget. Adopting the Millennium Development Goals as the overarching development framework will keep policy-makers focused on concrete results and help them avoid the so-called"natural resource curse."This paper calculates the total cost of the Millennium Development Goals and financing gap (on aggregate and for each goal); recommends changes in domestic sector policies; and proposes ways to integrate the Millennium Development Goals into the budget process. Over 2008-2015, the total cost of reaching the goals in Mauritania and the resulting financing gap stand at, respectively, around 9 and 3 percent of non-oil gross domestic product on average per year. Education is the most expensive goal in absolute terms, but the individual financing gaps are widest for poverty reduction and improving maternal health. On the policy side, sector strategies need to be aligned with the goals and resources allocated more than proportionally to the disadvantaged groups, mainly at the local level. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Rural Poverty Reduction,Health Systems Development&Reform, |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4674&r=dev |
| By: | Labonne, Julien; Chase, Robert S. |
| Abstract: | The authors explore the relationship between transaction costs and generalized trust. Using panel data from 2,100 households in 135 rural communities of the Philippines, the paper shows that where transaction costs are reduced (proxied by road construction), there is an increase in generalized trust. Consistent with the argument that generalized trust is built through repeated interactions, the authors find that the individuals most likely to engage in exchange exhibit an increase in trust after road construction. These results suggest that, rather than being an input to economic growth, trust might be a product of reduced transaction costs (which also favors growth). |
| Keywords: | Post Conflict Reconstruction,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Rural Roads&Transport,Social Capital,Corporate Law |
| Date: | 2008–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4706&r=dev |
| By: | Breceda, Karla; Rigolini, Jamele; Saavedra, Jaime |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an incidence analysis of both social spending and taxation for seven Latin American countries, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The analysis shows that Latin American countries are headed de facto toward a minimalist welfare state similar to the one in the United States, rather than toward a stronger, European-like welfare state. Specifically, both in Latin America and in the United States, social spending remains fairly flat across income quintiles. On the taxation side, high income inequality causes the rich to bear most of the taxation burden. This causes a vicious cycle where the rich oppose the expansion of the welfare state (as they bear most of its burden without receiving much back), which in turn maintains long-term inequalities. The recent increased socioeconomic instability in many Latin American countries shows nonetheless a real need for a stronger welfare state, which, if unanswered, may degenerate into short-term and unsustainable policies. The case of Chile suggests that a way out from this apparent dead end can be found, as elites may be willing to raise their contribution to social spending if this can lead to a more stable social contract. |
| Keywords: | ,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Taxation&Subsidies,Economic Theory&Research,Services&Transfers to Poor |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4604&r=dev |
| By: | Beck, Thorsten; Buyukkarabacak, Berrak; Rioja, Felix; Valev, Neven |
| Abstract: | While the theoretical and empirical finance literature has focused almost exclusively on enterprise credit, about half of credit extended by banks to the private sector in a sample of 45 developing and developed countries is to households. The share of household credit in total credit increases as countries grow richer and financial systems develop. Cross-country regressions, however, suggest a positive and significant impact on gross domestic product per capita growth only of enterprise but not household credit. These two findings together partly explain why previous studies have found a small or insignificant effect of finance on growth in high-income countries. In addition, countries with a lower share of manufacturing, a higher degree of urbanization, and more market-oriented financial systems have a higher share of household credit. It is thus mostly socio-economic trends that determine credit composition, while policies influencing banking market structure and regulatory policies are not robustly related to credit composition. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4661&r=dev |
| By: | Seo, S. Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert; Dinar, Ariel; Hassan, Rashid; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization combined with economic survey data from a Global Environment Facility/World Bank project. Net revenue per hectare of cropland is regressed on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables using different econometric specifications"with"and"without"country fixed effects. Country fixed effects slightly reduce predicted future climate related damage to agriculture. With a mild climate scenario, African farmers gain income from climate change; with a more severe scenario, they lose income. Some locations are more affected than others. The analysis of agro-ecological zones implies that the effects of climate change will vary across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid zones become more productive in the future. The agro-ecological zone classification can help explain the variation of impacts across the landscape. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Poverty Reduction,Transport and Environment |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4599&r=dev |
| By: | Nehru , Vikram; Thomas, Mark |
| Abstract: | Despite the popularity of the term among advocates of debt forgiveness, there is little agreement on a workable definition of"odious"debts and there are but few examples where the concept has been invoked in law to justify non-payment of sovereign debts. Most often, these have been cases when a successor state or government has refused to honor certain debts contracted by its predecessor state or government. Repudiating sovereign debts on broader grounds - such as that money may have been misused by the borrower or that results were not as hoped for at the outset of lending - would create real risks not only of reduced financial flows to poorer countries as a result of the danger of ex post challenges to lenders'claims, but also of moral hazard and lack of project ownership. This paper presents a discussion of the extant legal and financial environment facing developing country sovereign borrowers and develops a proposed approach within this environment to address issues of concern underlying the concept of odious or illegitimate debt. The authors make the case for focusing attention on codes of conduct along the lines of the Equator Principles and on refining forward-looking attempts to increase aid effectiveness and recover stolen assets. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,,Access to Finance,External Debt |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4676&r=dev |
| By: | Thorburn, Craig |
| Abstract: | In many markets, industry and policymakers agree that there may be too many insurers. In others, the consensus is that there could be benefit from more competition. But this broad consensus is often supported by evidence that is more qualitative, anecdotal, or judgmental despite being unanimous. What is less clear, however, is how far consolidation or liberalization will go, how fast, and when it will end. This paper presents some initial observations from a cross-country data set and proposes that individual country results can be interpreted against this data set to inform expectations regarding trends in competition, concentration and consolidation, to inform analysis of the sector, for individual firm strategic planning and wider market risk assessments. A"natural level"for measures is suggested as a starting hypothesis. Further consideration is then made of the role of absolute market size, stage of market development, and differentials between life and non life segments. Analysis of the natural level, adjusted for market conditions, can then be used to develop preliminary views on current and expected market dynamics, strategic planning, and to inform policy, regulatory and supervisory priorities. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Markets and Market Access,Emerging Markets,Microfinance,Insurance&Risk Mitigation |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4578&r=dev |
| By: | Amin, Mohammad; Mattoo, Aaditya |
| Abstract: | Using panel data for the fourteen major states of India over the 1980-2000 period, the authors estimate the effect of human capital endowment on the performance of the state economies. They find that greater availability of skilled workers had a positive and significant impact on output in the service sectors. They do not find any such effect for the manufacturing sectors. The paper shows that the differential effect on services and manufacturing arises because service sectors are more skill intensive. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,E-Business,Achieving Shared Growth,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4576&r=dev |
| By: | Verme, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of social assistance benefits on household welfare in Moldova. Ignoring standard issues of impact evaluations such as selection bias, behavioral responses, unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity, an incidence analysis suggests that increased spending on social assistance enhances the probability of moving out of poverty and reduces the probability of moving into poverty. However, double difference estimates (based on a mimicked randomized experiment) and parametric estimates (based on panel data) indicate that social benefits have not contributed to improve household welfare or reduce poverty. Double difference estimates point to a negative impact on welfare. Parametric estimates do not yield any consistent significant impact on welfare or poverty. The author concludes that the growth in population coverage and expenditure on cash benefits that characterized social assistance policies in recent years has not resulted in a significant improvement in welfare, all other factors being equal. |
| Keywords: | Safety Nets and Transfers,Rural Poverty Reduction,Services&Transfers to Poor,,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4658&r=dev |
| By: | Kaufmann, Daniel; Kraay, Aart; Mastruzzi, Massimo |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on the latest update of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) research project, covering 212 countries and territories and measuring six dimensions of governance between 1996 and 2007: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. The latest aggregate indicators are based on hundreds of specific and disaggregated individual variables measuring various dimensions of governance, taken from 35 data sources provided by 32 different organizations. The data reflect the views on governance of public sector, private sector and NGO experts, as well as thousands of citizen and firm survey respondents worldwide. The authors also explicitly report the margins of error accompanying each country estimate. These reflect the inherent difficulties in measuring governance using any kind of data. The authors also briefly describe the evolution of the WGI since its inception, and show that the margins of error on the aggregate governance indicators have declined over the years, even though they still remain non-trivial. The authors find that even after taking margins of error into account, the WGI permit meaningful cross-country comparisons as well as monitoring progress over time. In less than a decade, a substantial number of countries exhibit statistically significant improvements in at least one dimension of governance, while other countries exhibit deterioration in some dimensions. These aggregate indicators, spanning more than a decade, together with the disaggregated individual indicators, are available at www.govindicators.org. |
| Keywords: | Governance Indicators,National Governance,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Economic Policy, Institutions and Governance,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4654&r=dev |
| By: | Djankov, Simeon; Miranda, Pedro; Seira, Enrique; Sharma, Siddharth |
| Abstract: | This paper uses nationally representative survey data from Mexico to compare households with savings accounts in formal financial institutions to their neighbors who do not have such accounts. The survey, which was conducted in 2005, contains information on nearly 5,000 households. The findings show that although neighboring banked and unbanked households have similar demographic and occupational profiles, the former are more educated and have markedly greater wealth. The median banked household spends 32 percent more per capita than the median unbanked household, and the median per capita wealth in banked households is 88 percent higher than that in unbanked households. The findings suggest that education levels, wealth, and unobserved household attributes that might be correlated with wealth and education play a major role in explaining who is banked. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,,Banks&Banking Reform,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4647&r=dev |
| By: | Ravallion, Martin; Chen, Shaohua; Sangraula, Prem |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the first major update of the international"$1 a day"poverty line, first proposed in 1990 for measuring absolute poverty by the standards of the world's poorest countries. In a new data set of national poverty lines we find that a marked economic gradient only emerges when consumption per person is above about $2.00 a day at 2005 purchasing power parity. Below this, the average poverty line is $1.25, which we propose as the new international poverty line. Relative poverty appears to matter more to developing countries than has been thought. The authors'proposed schedule of relative poverty lines is bounded below by $1.25, and rises at a gradient of $1 in $3 when mean consumption is above $2.00 a day. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,Urban Partnerships&Poverty |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4620&r=dev |
| By: | Chen, Shaohua; Ravallion, Martin |
| Abstract: | In 2005, China participated for the first time in the International Comparison Program (ICP), which collects primary data across countries on the prices for an internationally comparable list of goods and services. This paper examines the implications of the new Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate (derived by the ICP) for China's poverty rate (by international standards) and how it has changed over time. We provide estimates with and without adjustment for a likely sampling bias in the ICP data. Using an international poverty line of USD 1.25 at 2005 PPP, we find a substantially higher poverty rate for China than past estimates, with about 15% of the population living in consumption poverty, implying about 130 million more poor by this standard. The income poverty rate in 2005 is 10%, implying about 65 million more people living in poverty. However, the new ICP data suggest an even larger reduction in the number of poor since 1981. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,ICT Applications |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4621&r=dev |
| By: | Docquier, Frederic; Faye, Ousmane; Pestieau, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Assuming a given educational policy, the recent brain drain literature reveals that skilled migration can boost the average level of schooling in developing countries. This paper introduces educational subsidies determined by governments concerned by the number of skilled workers remaining in the country. The theoretical analysis shows that developing countries can benefit from skilled emigration when educational subsidies entail high .fiscal distortions. However when taxes are not too distortionary, it is desirable to impede emigration and subsidize education. The authors investigate the empirical relationship between educational subsidies and migration prospects, obtaining a negative relationship for 105 countries. Based on this result, the analysis revisits the country specific effects of skilled migration upon human capital. The findings show that the endogeneity of public subsidies reduces the number of winners and increases the magnitude of the losses. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Finance,International Migration,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4614&r=dev |
| By: | Acs, Zoltan J.; Desai, Sameeksha; Klapper, Leora F |
| Abstract: | This paper compares two datasets designed to measure entrepreneurship. The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor dataset captures early-stage entrepreneurial activity; the World Bank Group Entrepreneurship Survey dataset captures formal business registration. There are a number of important differences when the data are compared. First, GEM data tend to report significantly greater levels of early-stage entrepreneurship in developing economies than do the World Bank data. The World Bank data tend to be greater than GEM data for developed countries. Second, the magnitude of the difference between the datasets across countries is related to the local institutional and environmental conditions for entrepreneurs, after controlling for levels of economic development. A possible explanation for this is that the World Bank data measure rates of entry in the formal economy, whereas GEM data are reflective of entrepreneurial intent and capture informality of entrepreneurship. This is particularly true for developing countries. Therefore, this discrepancy can be interpreted as the spread between individuals who could potentially operate businesses in the formal sector - and those that actually do so: In other words, GEM data may represent the potential supply of entrepreneurs, whereas the World Bank data may represent the actual rate of entrepreneurship. The findings suggest that entrepreneurs in developed countries have greater ease and incentives to incorporate, both for the benefits of greater access to formal financing and labor contracts, as well as for tax and other purposes not directly related to business activities. |
| Keywords: | Banks&Banking Reform,E-Business,Access to Finance,Microfinance,Information Security&Privacy |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4667&r=dev |
| By: | Seo, Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert; Dinar, Ariel; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Hassan, Rashid |
| Abstract: | Using economic data from more than 8,500 household surveys across 10 African countries, this paper examines whether the choice of farm type depends on the climate and agro-ecological zone of each farm. The paper also studies how farm type choice varies across farmers in each zone, using a multinomial logit choice model. Farmers are observed to choose from one of the following five types of farms: rainfed crop-only, irrigated crop-only, mixed rainfed (crop and livestock), mixed irrigated, and livestock-only farming. The authors compare current decisions against future decisions as if the only change were climate change. They focus on two climate scenarios from existing climate models: the Canadian Climate Centre scenario, which is hot and dry, and the Parallel Climate Model scenario, which is mild and wet. The results indicate that the change in farm types varies dramatically by climate scenario but also by agro-ecological zone. Policy makers must be careful to encourage the appropriate suite of measures to promote the most adapted farm type to each location. |
| Keywords: | Crops&Crop Management Systems,Climate Change,Agriculture&Farming Systems,Livestock&Animal Husbandry,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4602&r=dev |
| By: | Bodea, Cristina; Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the economic growth impact of organized political violence. First, the authors articulate the theoretical underpinnings of the growth impact of political violence in a popular model of growth under uncertainty. The authors show that, under plausible assumptions regarding attitudes toward risk, the overall effects of organized political violence are likely to be much higher than its direct capital destruction impact. Second, using a quantitative model of violence that distinguishes between three levels of political violence (riots, coups, and civil war), the authors use predicted probabilities of aggregate violence and its three manifestations to identify their growth effects in an encompassing growth model. Panel regressions suggest that organized political violence, especially civil war, significantly lowers long-term economic growth. Moreover, unlike most previous studies, the authors also find ethnic fractionalization to have a negative and direct effect on growth, though its effect is substantially ameliorated by the institutions specific to a non-factional partial democracy. Third, the results show that Sub-Saharan Africa has been disproportionately impacted by civil war, which explains a substantial share of its economic decline, including the widening income gap relative to East Asia. Civil wars have also been costly for Sub-Saharan Africa. For the case of Sudan, a typical large African country experiencing a long-duration conflict, the cost of war amounts to $46 billion (in 2000 fixed prices), which is roughly double the country's current stock of external debt. Fourth, the authors suggest that to break free from its conflict-underdevelopment trap, Africa needs to better manage its ethnic diversity. The way to do this would be to develop inclusive, non-factional democracy. A democratic but factional polity would not work, and would be only marginally better than an authoritarian regime. |
| Keywords: | Post Conflict Reconstruction,Population Policies,Hazard Risk Management,Post Conflict Reintegration,Social Conflict and Violence |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4692&r=dev |
| By: | Yoshino, Yutaka |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level data on manufacturing sectors in Africa, this paper addresses how domestic supply constraints and other firm characteristics explain the geographical orientation of firms'exports and the overall market diversification of African manufacturing exports. The degree of market diversification, measured by the number of export destinations, is highly correlated with export intensity at the firm level, and both embody strong scale effects. Technological factors, such as new vintage capital and Internet access, which improve production efficiency and lower export costs, show strong effects on the firm-level export intensity. Some qualitative differences exist between Africa's regional exports and exports to the global markets. Foreign ownership is a significant factor in characterizing the intensity of global exports but not regional exports. The technological factors are significant in both cases, but more so in global exports. Public infrastructure constraints, such as inferior power services and customs delays, seem to have more immediate impacts on regional exports in general, implying the relevance of addressing behind-the-border constraints in fostering regional integration in Africa. Customs efficiency does matter for textile exports to the global markets, underscoring the importance of improving trade facilitation in Africa for competitive participation of African producers in global supply chain industries. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Microfinance,Free Trade,Debt Markets,Markets and Market Access |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4575&r=dev |
| By: | Doss, Cheryl; Grown, Caren; Deere, Carmen Diana |
| Abstract: | Ownership and control over assets such as land and housing provide direct and indirect benefits to individuals and households, including a secure place to live, the means of a livelihood, protection during emergencies, and collateral for credit that can be used for investment or consumption. Unfortunately, few studies - either at the micro or macro levels- examine the gender dimensions of asset ownership. This paper sets out a framework for researchers who are interested in collecting data on individual level asset ownership and analyzing the gender asset gap. It reviews best practices in existing surveys with respect to data collection on assets at both the household and individual levels, and shows how various questions on individually owned assets can be incorporated with a minimum of effort and cost into existing multi-topic household surveys, using examples of three Living Standard Measurement Study surveys: the 1998-99 Ghana survey, the 2000 Guatemala survey, and the 1997-98 Vietnam survey questionnaires. The analysis shows that it is feasible to add a minimal set of questions to enable calculation of the gender asset gap. Adding a series of extra questions will permit a more satisfactory and nuanced analysis of asset acquisition, use, disposition, and valuation - information that is critical for policies promoting gender equality, poverty reduction, and economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,,Gender and Law,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4704&r=dev |
| By: | Vagliasindi, Maria |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to shed some new light on the conditions needed to ensure the effectiveness of Boards of Directors of state owned enterprises with a focus on infrastructure sectors. In the case of developing countries, empirical studies have found evidence of positive links between the composition of the Board of Directors and financial performance. Yet the lack of solid theoretical foundations, and in some cases poor data availability, makes the conclusions of most studies weak. Several policy recommendations emerge from the review of the economic literature and evidence from case studies. First, the introduction of a sufficient number of independent directors emerges as an important corporate governance milestone. Empowering them to exercise effective monitoring of management, however, may prove to be a formidable challenge for of state owned enterprises. More attention to board procedures, particularly related to the Board selection and evaluation process, is essential, to produce the necessary insulation of Boards from government interference. Ensuring sufficient continuity of services to directors is particularly crucial to improve corporate governance. In addition, other factors that may reduce directors'ability to monitor corporate activities, such as the age profile and the number of Boards on which they sit, need to be handled more carefully. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Law,National Governance,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Microfinance |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4579&r=dev |
| By: | Grun, Rebekka E. |
| Abstract: | Households in rural Colombia are confronted with a variety of violent threats: attacks and displacement threats by guerrillas and paramilitaries, gang violence among drug traffickers, and high common delinquency. In this context, households have to adjust their day-to-day decisions, including saving and portfolio choices, in order to be less vulnerable. The authors test the hypothesis that households, when confronted with exogenous violence, reduce their investment and, moreover, shift it from fixed to mobile assets, which would be safer in the case of displacement, and choose the opposite strategy under higher common delinquency associated with property crimes. Empirical evidence from a rich Colombian micro-data set strongly supports the hypothesis. The results shed new light on the economic impact of violence. The immediate reduction in capital stock might be much less severe than more permanent damage via the savings function. This has implications for the appropriate political answer to chronic violence in Colombia as well as in other areas of chronic conflict. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Investment and Investment Climate,Access to Finance,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures |
| Date: | 2008–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4713&r=dev |
| By: | Ivanic, Maros; Martin, Will |
| Abstract: | In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Markets and Market Access,Population Policies,Achieving Shared Growth |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4594&r=dev |
| By: | Suarez, Pablo; Givah, Precious; Storey, Kelvin; Lotsch, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Southern African institutions involved in disaster management face two major new threats: the HIV/AIDS pandemic (eroding organizational capacity and increasing vulnerability of the population), and climate change (higher risk of extreme events and disasters). Analyzing the combined effects of these two threats on six disaster-related institutions in Malawi, the authors find evidence of a growing gap between demand for their services and capacity to satisfy that demand. HIV/AIDS leads to staff attrition, high vacancy rates, absenteeism, increased workload and other negative effects enhanced by human resources policies and financial limitations. Many necessary tasks cannot be carried out adequately with constraints such as the 42 percent vacancy rate in the Department of Poverty and Disaster Management Affairs, or the reduction of rainfall stations operated by the Meteorological Service from over 800 in 1988 to just 135 in 2006. The authors highlight implications of declining organizational capacity for climate change adaptation, and formulate recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,HIV AIDS,Hazard Risk Management,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Climate Change |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4634&r=dev |
| By: | Del Carpio, Ximena V. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship of household income with child labor. The analysis uses a rich dataset obtained in the context of a conditional cash transfer program in a poor region of Nicaragua in 2005 and 2006. The program has a strong productive emphasis and seeks to diversify the work portfolio of beneficiaries while imposing conditionalities on the household. The author develops a simple model that relates child labor to household income, preferences, and production technology. It turns out that child labor does not always decrease with income; the relationship is complex and exhibits an inverted-U shape. Applying the data to the model confirms that the relationship is concave when all children (8-15 years of age) are included in the sample. Expanding the analysis by stratifying the sample by age and gender shows that the relationship holds only for older children, both genders. The author investigates the effect of the conditional cash transfer program on child labor. The results show that the program has a decreasing effect on total hours of work for the full sample of children. Disentangling labor into two types - physically demanding labor and non-physical labor - reveals that the program has opposite effects on each type; it decreases physically demanding labor while increasing participation in non-physical (more intellectually oriented) tasks for children. |
| Keywords: | Street Children,Youth and Governance,Labor Policies,Children and Youth,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4694&r=dev |
| By: | Finger, J. Michael; Nogues, Julio J. |
| Abstract: | The binding of tariff rates and adoption of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization-sanctioned safeguards and antidumping mechanisms provided the basis to remove a multitude of instruments of protection in the Latin American countries discussed in this paper. At the same time, they helped in maintaining centralized control over the management of pressures for protection in agencies with economy-wide accountabilities. The World Trade Organization's procedural requirements (for example, to follow published criteria, or participation by interested parties) helped leaders to change the culture of decision-making from one based on relationships to one based on objective criteria. However, when Latin American governments attempted to introduce economic sense - such as base price comparisons on an economically sensible measure of long-run international price rather than the more generous constructed cost concept that is the core of WTO rules - protection-seekers used the rules against them. They pointed out that World Trade Organization rules do not require the use of such criteria, nor do procedures in leading users (industrial countries) include such criteria. In sum, the administrative content of the rules supported liberalization; the economic content did not. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Trade Law,Emerging Markets,Trade Policy |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4680&r=dev |
| By: | Bandiera, Luca; Kumar, Praveen; Pinto, Brian |
| Abstract: | Kenya has long had a reputation of being politically risky, manifested in corruption, uncertainty about policies, and the importance of political connections in doing business. Kenya began its economic liberalization in 1993. Reform picked up speed after a tightening of aid by donors on governance grounds and an attempt to re-establish credibility following the costly Goldenberg scandal uncovered in 1992. But tangible results in the shape of favorable government debt dynamics and a pick up in growth took a decade to materialize. The paper argues that the peaceful presidential election and transfer of power in December 2002 was central to the economic upswing after 2002. The subsequent decline in political risk was singled out by the private sector as an important development. The paper draws on an analysis of debt dynamics, the evolution of domestic interest rates, and the latest Investment Climate Assessment to present evidence on the criticality of low political risk in facilitating good economic outcomes after 2003. The December 2007 elections have highlighted other aspects of political risk - ethnic and social tensions with roots in inequality. The findings of this paper underline the importance of establishing a foundation for long-term political stability and social cohesion in view of the disruptions following the December 2007 elections. This process is likely to be at least as difficult and lengthy as fundamental economic policy and institutional reform. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,,Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4685&r=dev |
| By: | Verner, Dorte |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses labor markets in Haiti, including farm and nonfarm employment and income generation. The analyses are based on the first Living Conditions Survey of 7,186 households covering the whole country and representative at the regional level. The findings suggest that four key determinants of employment and productivity in nonfarm activities are education, gender, location, and migration status. This is emphasized when nonfarm activities are divided into low-return and high-return activities. The wage and producer income analyses reveal that education is key to earning higher wages and incomes. Moreover, producer incomes increase with farm size, land title, and access to tools, electricity, roads, irrigation, and other farm inputs. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4574&r=dev |
| By: | Fox, Louise; Oviedo, Ana Maria |
| Abstract: | Using recent matched employer-employee data from the manufacturing sector in 20 Sub-Saharan African countries, the authors analyze how the supply of skills and legal origin of the country affect the wage setting process. The wage analysis yields three main findings. First, increasing returns to education, especially for older workers, suggest that the expansion of education in Africa has reduced returns to education for entrants in the labor market. Second, age effects matter not just for returns to education, but also for the wage setting process more generally. In particular, in civil-law countries, returns to seniority are rewarded only after a certain age. Third, workers exercise some power in the wage setting process but their influence varies by linguistic group. In common-law countries, union presence benefits all workers equally, not just members, whereas in civil-law countries, only older members enjoy higher wages. The authors also contrast wage premia with relative marginal productivities for different age, occupation, and education categories. The findings show that in general, older, highly educated, and highly ranked workers receive wage premia that do not reflect a higher relative marginal productivity. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,,Labor Policies,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4688&r=dev |
| By: | Brenton, Paul; Hoppe, Mombert; Newfarmer, Richard |
| Abstract: | Trade can be a key driver of growth for African countries, as it has been for those countries, particularly in East Asia, that have experienced high and sustained rates of growth. Economic partnership agreements with the European Union could be instrumental in a competitiveness framework, but to do so they would have to be designed carefully in a way that supports integration into the global economy and is consistent with national development strategies. Interim agreements have focused on reciprocal tariff removal and less restrictive rules of origin. To be fully effective, economic partnership agreements will have to address constraints to regional integration, including both tariff and non-tariff barriers; improve trade facilitation; and define appropriate most favored nation services liberalization. At the same time, African countries will need to reduce external tariff peak barriers on a most favored nation basis to ensure that when preferences for the European Union are implemented after transitional periods, they do not lead to substantial losses from trade diversion. This entails an ambitious agenda of policy reform that must be backed up by development assistance in the form of"aid for trade." |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Emerging Markets,Trade Policy,Trade Law |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4627&r=dev |
| By: | Alacevich, Michele |
| Abstract: | Until the late 1960s, the World Bank presented itself as an institution devoted to making sound and directly productive project loans. Yet, during its very early years, some discussions developed inside the Bank regarding the possibility of issuing different types of loans, namely (i) loans aimed at tackling social issues ("social loans"), and (ii) loans aimed at providing foreign currency to address disequilibria in the balance of payments ("impact loans"). This paper brings together historical analysis and theories of organization development to study the housing issue as a case in point. The analysis reveals that the Bank was unwilling to lend for housing programs not because these were not sound - in fact, they were - but because they were geared toward achieving social welfare objectives and were not directly linked to productive investment projects, such as dams, power stations, and railroads. This early decision had a significant impact on the subsequent development of the Bank's view of policy-making: it locked the institution into a particular lending pattern, and deprived it of important intellectual resources. It was not until the late 1960s that the Bank began to take social issues into consideration, rather late compared with other multilateral institutions. |
| Keywords: | Banks&Banking Reform,,Access to Finance,Corporate Law,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4670&r=dev |
| By: | Straub, Stephane |
| Abstract: | This survey reviews the existing macro-level empirical literature on the link between infrastructure and development outcomes in a critical light. After providing a general framework that casts the relevant terms of the controversy on the real effect of infrastructure on growth in the context of an aggregate production function, it signals what are the relevant empirical questions to be addressed. This guides the systematic review of a number of empirical studies and the discussion of the main econometric challenges to the identification of the effect of infrastructure on output and productivity. Finally, building on related research, in particular in contract theory and political economy, the paper spells out several promising research avenues. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Political Economy,Non Bank Financial Institutions |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4590&r=dev |
| By: | Bredenkamp, Caryn |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the determinants of child nutritional status in seven provinces of China during the 1990s, focusing specifically on the role of two areas of public policy, namely health system reforms and the one child policy. The empirical relationship between income and nutritional status, and the extent to which that relationship is mediated by access to quality healthcare and being an only-child, is investigated using ordinary least squares, random effects, fixed effects, and instrumental variables models. In the preferred model - a fixed effects model where income is instrumented - the author find that being an only-child increases height-for-age z-scores by 0.119 of a standard deviation. The magnitude of this effect is found to be largely gender and income neutral. By contrast, access to quality healthcare and income is not found to be significantly associated with improved nutritional status in the preferred model. Data are drawn from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population Policies,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Health Systems Development&Reform,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4587&r=dev |
| By: | Barrera-Osorio, Felipe; Bertrand, Marianne; L. Linden, Leigh; Perez-Calle, Francisco |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an evaluation of multiple variants of a commonly used intervention to boost education in developing countries - the conditional cash transfer - with a student level randomization that allows the authors to generate intra-family and peer-network variation. The analysis tests three treatments: a basic conditional cash transfer treatment based on school attendance, a savings treatment that postpones a bulk of the cash transfer due to good attendance to just before children have to re-enroll, and a tertiary treatment where some of the transfers are conditional on students'graduation and tertiary enrollment rather than attendance. On average, the combined incentives increase attendance, pass rates, enrollment, graduation rates, and matriculation to tertiary institutions. Changing the timing of the payments does not change attendance rates relative to the basic treatment but does significantly increase enrollment rates at both the secondary and tertiary levels. Incentives for graduation and matriculation are particularly effective, increasing attendance and enrollment at secondary and tertiary levels more than the basic treatment. There is some evidence that the subsidies can cause a reallocation of responsibilities within the household. Siblings (particularly sisters) of treated students work more and attend school less than students in families that received no treatment. In addition, indirect peer influences are relatively strong in attendance decisions with the average magnitude similar to that of the direct effect. |
| Keywords: | Tertiary Education,Access to Finance,Primary Education,Secondary Education, |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4580&r=dev |
| By: | Seo, S. Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a Structural Ricardian model to measure climate change impacts that explicitly models the choice of farm type in African agriculture. This two stage model first estimates the type of farm chosen and then the conditional incomes of each farm type after removing selection biases. The results indicate that increases in temperature encourage farmers to adopt mixed farming and avoid specialized farms such as crop-only or livestock-only farms. Increases in precipitation encourage farmers to shift from irrigated to rainfed crops. As temperatures increase, farm incomes from crop-only farms or livestock-only farms fall whereas incomes from mixed farms increase. With precipitation increases, farm incomes from irrigated farms fall whereas incomes from rainfed farms increase. Naturally, the Structural Ricardian model predicts much smaller impacts than a model that holds farm type fixed. With a hot dry climate scenario, the Structural Ricardian model predicts that farm income will fall 50 percent but the fixed farm type model predicts farm incomes will fall 75 percent. |
| Keywords: | Crops&Crop Management Systems,Agriculture&Farming Systems,Livestock&Animal Husbandry,Climate Change,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4603&r=dev |
| By: | Seo, Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Dinar, Ariel; Hassan, Rashid |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies how African farmers have adapted their crop and irrigation decisions to their farm's current agro-ecological zone. The results indicate that farmers carefully consider the climate and other conditions of their farm when making these choices. These results are then used to forecast how farmers might change their irrigation and crop choice decisions if climate changes. The model predicts African farmers would adopt irrigation more often under a very hot and dry climate scenario but less often with a mild and wet scenario. However, farms in the deserts, lowland humid forest, or mid elevation humid forest would reduce irrigation even in the very hot and dry climate scenario. Area under fruits and vegetables would increase Africa-wide with the very hot and dry climate scenario, except in the lowland semi-arid agro-ecological zone. Millet would increase overall under the mild and wet scenario, but decline substantially in the lowland dry savannah and lowland semi-arid agro-ecological zones. Maize would be chosen less often across all the agro-ecological zones under both climate scenarios. Wheat would decrease across Africa. The authors recommend that care must be taken to match adaptations to local conditions because the optimal adaptation would depend on the agro-ecological zone and the climate scenario. |
| Keywords: | Crops&Crop Management Systems,Climate Change,Food&Beverage Industry,Renewable Energy,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4600&r=dev |
| By: | Toto Same, Achille |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at providing a guide to ensure efficiency in the management of Chad's windfall to support the development process and poverty reduction. The analysis is based on the lessons and experience of countries that have successfully used natural-resource-generated windfalls to launch their development process while avoiding the natural resource curse. The paper also discusses the petroleum management arrangements in place in Chad for poverty reduction. The author argues that the successful management of Chad's windfall for poverty reduction will depend on the effectiveness of oil revenue management arrangements in place in Chad and the government's willingness to improve public finance management (PFM). |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management,Debt Markets,,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4596&r=dev |
| By: | Paxton, Pamela; Knack, Stephen |
| Abstract: | In recent years donor countries have committed to dramatic increases in the supply of foreign aid to developing countries. Meeting and sustaining such commitments will require sufficient support among donor country voters and taxpayers. The determinants of public opinion in donor countries on foreign aid have received little attention. This paper examines attitudes to foreign aid with a large, multi-level, cross-national study. It outlines a theoretical rationale for support for foreign aid, discussing the importance of both individual factors and economic and social structures. The theory is tested with multi-level models, including both individual-level and country-level variables to predict positive attitudes. Two datasets are used to measure attitudes in donor countries: (1) the 1995 World Values Survey has information from approximately 6,000 individuals in nine countries and asks a rich battery of questions at the individual-level, and (2) the 2002 Gallup"Voice of the People"survey asks fewer questions of individuals but includes 17 donor countries. Using both surveys combines their distinct strengths and allows tests of individual and national-level theories across disparate samples. The results generally support the predictions that attitudes toward aid are influenced by religiosity, beliefs about the causes of poverty, awareness of international affairs, and trust in people and institutions. |
| Keywords: | Post Conflict Reconstruction,Gender and Health,Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness,Foreign Aid,Disability |
| Date: | 2008–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4714&r=dev |
| By: | Kinda, Tidiane; Loening, Josef L. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes characteristics of nonfarm enterprises, their employment growth patterns, and constraints in doing business in rural Tanzania. Using unique survey data, the authors describe a low-return sector struggling to compete in a difficult business environment. However, about one-third of rural enterprises are growing fast. Most enterprises engage in agricultural trade. Due to a rapidly growing agricultural sector in recent years, limiting demand-side constraints, rural enterprise constraints in Tanzania mainly operate from the supply side. This suggests that, in particular, access to finance, road infrastructure, and rural cell phone communication is correlated with employment growth. A major finding is that subjective and objective measurements of business constraints are broadly comparable. The authors discuss a number of factors that would help to unleash the full potential of private sector-led growth in rural areas. The findings show that marginal improvements in the rural investment climate matter for growth. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Rural Poverty Reduction,Microfinance,Banks&Banking Reform, |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4675&r=dev |
| By: | Ratha, Dilip; Mohapatra, Sanket; Plaza, Sonia |
| Abstract: | Given Sub-Saharan Africa's enormous resource needs for growth, poverty reduction, and other Millennium Development Goals, the development community has little choice but to continue to explore new sources of financing, innovative private-to-private sector solutions, and public-private partnerships to mobilize additional international financing. The paper suggests several new instruments for improving access to capital. An analysis of country creditworthiness suggests that many countries in the region may be more creditworthy than previously believed. Establishing sovereign rating benchmarks and credit enhancement through guarantee instruments provided by multilateral aid agencies would facilitate market access. Creative financial structuring, such as the International Financing Facility for Immunization, would help front-load aid commitments, although these may not result in additional financing in the long run. Preliminary estimates suggest that Sub-Saharan African countries can potentially raise USD 1-3 billion by reducing the cost of international migrant remittances, USD 5-10 billion by issuing diaspora bonds, and USD 17 billion by securitizing future remittances and other future receivables. African countries that have recently received debt relief however need to be cautious when resorting to market-based borrowing. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform, |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4609&r=dev |
| By: | Seethepalli, Kalpana; Bramati, Maria Caterina; Veredas, David |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to shed some light on the extent to which infrastructure sub-sectors - energy, telecommunications, water supply, sanitation, and transport - contributed to growth in East Asia during 1985-2004. It also attempts to provide additional insights on whether the relationship between infrastructure and growth depends on five additional variables: the degree of private participation in infrastructure, the quality of governance, the extent of rural-urban inequality in access to infrastructure services, country income levels, as well as geography. The findings show that greater stocks of infrastructure were indeed associated with higher growth. However, a more nuanced look at the sensitivity of infrastructure impacts on the five additional variables yields different results, with some sectors supporting conventional expectations and others yielding mixed or counter-intuitive results. In particular, the telecom and sanitation sectors yield statistically significant results supporting the a priori hypotheses; electricity and water infrastructure provide mixed results; and road infrastructure consistently contradicts a priori expectations. The results are consistent with the widely-accepted idea in policy research that infrastructure plays an important role in promoting growth, as well as with the viewpoint that certain countries'endowments influence the growth-related impacts of infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Governance Indicators,Banks&Banking Reform,Urban Slums Upgrading,Urban Services to the Poor |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4597&r=dev |
| By: | Kaplan, David S. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of labor-regulation reform using data for 10,396 firms from 14 Latin American countries. Firms are asked both how many permanent workers they would have hired and how many they would have terminated if labor regulations were made more flexible. I find that making labor regulations more flexible would lead to an average net increase of 2.08 percent in total employment. Firms with fewer than 20 employees would benefit the most, with average gains in net employment of 4.27 percent. Countries with more regulated labor markets would experience larger gains in total employment. These larger gains in total employment, however, would be achieved through higher rates of hiring and higher rates of termination. These results may explain why there is substantial opposition to labor reforms despite the predicted gains in efficiency and total employment. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Labor Management and Relations,Labor Standards,Work&Working Conditions |
| Date: | 2008–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4708&r=dev |
| By: | Elbadawi, Ibrahim; Milante, Gary; Pischedda, Costantino |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a game theory model of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in 2011. The findings show that excessive militarization and brinksmanship is a rational response for both actors, neither of which can credibly commit to lower levels of military spending under the current status quo. This militarization is often at the expense of health and education expenditures, suggesting that the opportunity cost of militarization is foregone economic development. These credibility issues might be resolved by democratization, increased transparency, reduction of information asymmetries, and efforts to promote economic and political cooperation. The paper explores these devices, demonstrating how they can contribute to Pareto preferred outcomes in equilibrium. The authors characterize the military expenditure associated with the commitment problem experienced by both sides, estimate its costs from data for Sudan, and identify the opportunity cost of foregone development implied by continued, excessive, and unsustainable militarization. |
| Keywords: | Post Conflict Reconstruction,Peace&Peacekeeping,Population Policies,Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4684&r=dev |
| By: | Toto Same, Achille |
| Abstract: | Referring to the original context of Dutch Disease, the term refers to the fears of de-industrialization that gripped the Netherlands as a result of the appreciation of the Dutch currency that followed the discovery of natural gas deposits. Expansion of petroleum exports in the 1960s not only crowded out other exports, it actually reduced other exports disproportionately and fueled the fears of dire consequences for Dutch manufacturing. In the case of Equatorial Guinea, the secondary sector represents about 2 percent of the gross domestic product, manufacturing represents less than 1 percent, and oil represents more than 95 percent. The negative impact of the Dutch Disease in this context would be limited given the structure of the economy and on the contrary may even be a good thing because it fuels the structural transformational process of the economy, which is needed in Equatorial Guinea. This paper argues that the ongoing Dutch Disease is a natural and necessary reallocation of resources in the economy of Equatorial Guinea. The magnitude of negative macroeconomic consequences of the Dutch Disease depends on the country's economic structure and stage of development. In a country where the manufacturing sector barely exists or where the non-oil primary sector is structurally deficient, as has been the case of Equatorial Guinea, there is little to fear about the disease. The oil boom is a blessing, given that oil revenues when properly managed can play a special and critical role in overall economic development and poverty reduction in low-income countries. To promote good governance in the management of the country's oil wealth, the government may wish to adhere to clear standards of accountability and transparency; especially by complying with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI++). |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,,Banks&Banking Reform,Currencies and Exchange Rates |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4595&r=dev |
| By: | Bosch, Mariano; Maloney, William |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the cyclical properties of worker flows in Brazil and Mexico, two important developing countries with large unregulated or “informal” sectors. It generates three stylized facts that are critical to the accurate modeling of the sector and which suggest the need to rethink the approaches to date. First, the unemployment rate is countercyclical essentially because job separations of informal workers increase dramatically in recessions. Second, the share of formal employment is countercyclical because of the difficulty of finding formal jobs from inactivity, unemployment and other informal jobs during recessions rather than because of increased separation from formal jobs. Third, flows from formality into informality are not countercyclical, but, if anything, pro-cyclical. Together, these challenge the conventional wisdom that has guided the modeling the sector that informal workers are primarily those rationed out of the formal labor market. They also offer a new synthesis of the mechanics of the cyclical adjustment process. Finally, the paper offers estimates of the moments of worker flows series that are needed for calibration. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Population Policies,,Labor Standards |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4648&r=dev |
| By: | Das, Maitreyi Bordia |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from the 61st Round of the National Sample Survey to understand the employment outcomes of Dalit and Muslim men in India. It uses a conceptual framework developed for the US labor market that states that ethnic minorities skirt discrimination in the primary labor market to build successful self-employed ventures in the form of ethnic enclaves or ethnic labor markets. The paper uses entry into self-employment for educated minority groups as a proxy for minority enclaves. Based on multinomial logistic regression, the analysis finds that the minority enclave hypothesis does not hold for Dalits but it does overwhelmingly for Muslims. The interaction of Dalit and Muslim status with post-primary education in urban areas demonstrates that post-primary education confers almost a disadvantage for minority men: it does not seem to affect their allocation either to salaried work or to non-farm self-employment but does increase their likelihood of opting out of the labor force - and if they cannot afford to drop out, they join the casual labor market. Due to the complexity of these results and the fact that there are no earnings data for self-employment, it is difficult to say whether self-employment is a choice or compulsion and whether builders of minority enclaves fare better than those in the primary market. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Labor Policies,Population Policies,Educational Policy and Planning,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4653&r=dev |
| By: | Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Ravallion, Martin |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a compilation of data from household surveys representing 130 countries, many over a period of 25 years, this paper reviews the evidence on levels and recent trends in global poverty and income inequality. It documents the negative correlations between both poverty and inequality indices, on the one hand, and mean income per capita on the other. It points to the dominant role of Asia in accounting for the bulk of the world's poverty reduction since 1981. The evolution of global inequality in the last decades is also described, with special emphasis on the different trends of inequality within and between countries. The statistical relationships between growth, inequality and poverty are discussed, as is the correlation between inequality and the growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Some of the recent literature on the drivers of distributional change in developing countries is also reviewed. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Achieving Shared Growth,Services&Transfers to Poor,Population Policies,Poverty Impact Evaluation |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4623&r=dev |
| By: | de Mel, Suresh; McKenzie, David; Woodruff, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Is the vast army of the self-employed in low income countries a source of employment generation? This paper uses data from surveys in Sri Lanka to compare the characteristics of own account workers (non-employers) with wage workers and with owners of larger firms. The authors use a rich set of measures of background, ability, and attitudes, including lottery experiments measuring risk attitudes. Consistent with the International Labor Organization's views of the self employed (represented by Tokman), the analysis finds that two-thirds to three-quarters of the own account workers have characteristics which are more like wage workers than larger firm owners. This suggests the majority of the own account workers are unlikely to become employers. Using a two and a half year panel of enterprises, the authors show that the minority of own account workers who are more like larger firm owners are more likely to expand by adding paid employees. The results suggest that finance is not the sole constraint to growth of microenterprises, and provides an explanation for the low rates of growth of enterprises supported by microlending. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Tertiary Education,Work&Working Conditions,,Microfinance |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4635&r=dev |
| By: | David, Antonio C.; Li, Carmen A. |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to quantify the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on social capital with cross-country data. Using data from the World Values Survey, the authors estimate reduced-form regressions of the main determinants of social capital controlling for HIV prevalence, institutional quality, social distance, and economic indicators. The results obtained indicate that HIV prevalence affects social capital negatively. The empirical estimates suggest that a one standard deviation increase in HIV prevalence will lead to a decline of at least 1 percent in trust, controlling for other determinants of social capital. Moving from a country with a relatively low level of HIV prevalence, such as Estonia, to a country with a relatively high level, such as Uganda, there is a more than 11 percent point decline in social capital. These results are robust in a number of dimensions and highlight the empirical importance of an additional mechanism through which HIV/AIDS hinders the development process. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Social Capital,HIV AIDS,Disease Control&Prevention,Inequality |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4679&r=dev |
| By: | Seo, S. Niggol; Mendelsohn, Robert; Dinar, Ariel; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how farmers have adapted their livestock operation to the current climate in each agro-ecological zone in Africa. The authors examine how climate has affected the farmer's choice to raise livestock or not and the choice of animal species. To measure adaptation, the analysis regresses the farmer's choice on climate, soil, water flow, and socio-economic variables. The findings show that climate does in fact affect the farmer's decision about whether to raise livestock and the species. The paper also simulates how future climates may alter these decisions using forecasts from climate models and the estimated model. With a hot dry scenario, livestock ownership will increase slightly across all of Africa, but especially in West Africa and high elevation agro-ecological zones. Dairy cattle will decrease in semi-arid regions, sheep will increase in the lowlands, and chickens will increase at high elevations. With a mild and wet scenario, however, livestock adoption will fall dramatically in lowland and high latitude moist agro-ecological zones. Beef cattle will increase and sheep will fall in dry zones, dairy cattle will fall precipitously and goats will rise in moist zones, and chickens will increase at high elevations but fall at mid elevations. Livestock adaptations depend on the climate scenario and will vary across the landscape. Agro-ecological zones are a useful way to capture how these changes differ from place to place. |
| Keywords: | Livestock&Animal Husbandry,Wildlife Resources,Peri-Urban Communities,Rural Urban Linkages,Dairies&Dairying |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4601&r=dev |
| By: | Calderon, Cesar; Serven, Luis |
| Abstract: | An adequate supply of infrastructure services has long been viewed by both academics and policy makers as a key ingredient for economic development. Sub-Saharan Africa ranks consistently at the bottom of all developing regions in terms of infrastructure performance, and an increasing number of observers point to deficient infrastructure as a major obstacle for growth and poverty reduction across the region. This paper offers an empirical assessment of the impact of infrastructure development on growth and inequality, with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper uses a comparative cross-regional perspective to place Africa's experience in the international context. Drawing from an updated data set of infrastructure quantity and quality indicators covering more than 100 countries and spanning the years 1960-2005, the paper estimates empirical growth and inequality equations including a standard set of control variables augmented by infrastructure quantity and quality measures, and controlling for the potential endogeneity of the latter. The estimates illustrate the potential contribution of infrastructure development to growth and equity across Africa. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Infrastructure Economics,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2008–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4712&r=dev |
| By: | Marouani, Mohamed A.; Robalino, David A. |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze the marginal and joint impacts that alternative macroeconomic, education, and social protection policies have on the dynamics of employment and unemployment by skill level. The model introduces a disaggregated treatment of the labor market that incorporates an informal sub-sector in every sector of the economy. The analysis explicitly models the distribution of skills in the labor force by following over time sex-age cohorts across various levels of the education system and in the labor market. And it integrates a module that projects the revenues and expenditures of the pension system. The model is applied to the case of Morocco. Simulations show that even under positive assumptions regarding economic growth, unemployment rates are likely to remain close to current levels in the next decade. The paper argues that only an integrated package of policies that affect the macro-economy, the investment climate, and the education and social protection systems would allow sustainable creation of enough"good quality"jobs. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Labor Policies,,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4681&r=dev |
| By: | Cunningham, Wendy; Jacobsen, Joyce P. |
| Abstract: | Latin American countries are generally characterized as displaying high income and earnings inequality overall along with high inequality by gender, race, and ethnicity. However, the latter phenomenon is not a major contributor to the former phenomenon. Using household survey data from four Latin American countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Guatemala, and Guyana) for which stratification by race or ethnicity is possible, this paper demonstrates (using Theil index decompositions as well as Gini indices, and 90/10 and 50/10 percentile comparisons) that within-group earnings inequality rather than between-group earnings inequality is the main contributor to overall earnings inequality. Simulations in which the relatively disadvantaged gender and/or racial/ethnic group is treated as if it were the relatively advantaged group tend to reduce overall earnings inequality measures only slightly and in some cases have the effect of increasing earnings inequality measures. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,,Gender and Development,Inequality,Gender and Law |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4591&r=dev |
| By: | Lopez, Humberto |
| Abstract: | The social discount rate measures the rate at which a society would be willing to trade present for future consumption. As such it is one of the most critical inputs needed for cost-benefit analysis. This paper presents estimates of the social discount rates for nine Latin American countries. It is argued that if the recent track record in terms of growth in the region is indicative of future performance, estimates of the social discount rate would be in the 3-4 percent range. However, to the extent that the region improves on its past performance, the social discount rate to be used in the evaluation of projects would increase to the 5-7 percent range. The paper also argues that if the social planner gives a similar chance to the low and high growth scenario, the discount rate should be dependent on the horizon of the project, declining from 4.4 percent for a 25-year horizon to less than 4 percent for a 100-year horizon. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,Achieving Shared Growth, |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4639&r=dev |
| By: | Bourguignon, Francois; Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina; Lofgren, Hans |
| Abstract: | In many developing countries, achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 will require significant increases in expenditures on social services and in foreign assistance. It will also require careful planning of the sector allocation and sequencing of public spending. Especially for low-income countries, the challenges of the MDGs cannot be well understood unless sector issues are seen in the context of constraints at the macro level and in labor markets. To help countries analyze policies aimed at making progress toward the goals, the World Bank has developed a new tool, the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS). Its originality is to fully integrate government services and their impact on the economy within an otherwise standard economy-wide dynamic framework. In comparison with existing approaches, MAMS offers three main advantages. First, the representation of the production of government services - such as health or education - takes into account demand as well as supply factors and the efficiency of these services. It also allows for interactions across the goals, and between the goals and economic growth. Second, it shows how scaling up these services has economy-wide impacts that may change resource allocation in the non-government sector and relative prices, including the unit cost of government services. Third, it shows the tradeoffs across time, including the relative costs and benefits, of front-loading expenditures versus back-loading. The present paper describes the basic features of MAMS and provides an illustration of its applicability for Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,,Population Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4683&r=dev |
| By: | Loening, Josef; Rijkers, Bob; Soderbom, Mans |
| Abstract: | This paper uses uniquely matched household, enterprise and community survey data from four major regions in rural Ethiopia to characterize the performance, constraints and opportunities of nonfarm enterprises. The nonfarm enterprise sector is sizeable, particularly important for women, and plays an important role during the low season for agriculture, when alternative job opportunities are limited. Returns to nonfarm enterprise employment are low on average and especially so for female-headed enterprises. Women nevertheless have much higher participation rates than men, which attest to their marginalized position in the labor market. Most enterprises are very small and rely almost exclusively on household members to provide the required labor inputs. Few firms add to their capital stock or increase their labor inputs after startup. Local fluctuations in predicted crop performance affect the performance of nonfarm enterprises, because of the predominant role played by the agricultural sector. Enterprise performance is also affected by the localized nature of sales and limited market integration for nonfarm enterprises. The policy implications of these and other findings are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,,Microfinance,Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4577&r=dev |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; Giles, John |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the authors examine the impact of reductions in barriers to migration on the consumption of rural households in China. The authors find that increased migration from rural villages leads to significant increases in consumption per capita, and that this effect is stronger for poorer households within villages. Household income per capita and non-durable consumption per capita both increase with out-migration, and increase more for poorer households. The authors also establish a causal relationship between increased out-migration and investment in housing and durable goods assets, and these effects are also stronger for poorer households. The authors do not find robust evidence, however, to support a connection between increased migration and investment in productive activity. Instead, increased migration is associated with two significant changes for poorer households: increases both in the total labor supplied to productive activities and in the land per capita managed by the household. In examining the effect of migration, we pay considerable attention to developing and examining our identification strategy. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Population Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4585&r=dev |
| By: | Beegle, Kathleen; Dehejia, Rajeev H.; Gatti, Roberta; Krutikova, Sofya |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a unique longitudinal data set from Tanzania to examine the consequences of child labor on education, employment choices, and marital status over a 10-year horizon. Shocks to crop production and rainfall are used as instrumental variables for child labor. For boys, the findings show that a one-standard-deviation (5.7 hour) increase in child labor leads 10 years later to a loss of approximately one year of schooling and to a substantial increase in the likelihood of farming and of marrying at a younger age. Strikingly, there are no significant effects on education for girls, but there is a significant increase in the likelihood of marrying young. The findings also show that crop shocks lead to an increase in agricultural work for boys and instead lead to an increase in chore hours for girls. The results are consistent with education being a lower priority for girls and/or with chores causing less disruption for education than agricultural work. The increased chore hours could also account for the results on marriage for girls. |
| Keywords: | Street Children,Youth and Governance,Labor Policies,Labor Markets,Children and Youth |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4677&r=dev |
| By: | Cull, Robert; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Morduch, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Microfinance institutions have proved the possibility of providing reliable banking services to poor customers. Their second aim is to do so in a commercially-viable way. This paper analyzes the tensions and opportunities of microfinance as it embraces the market, drawing on a data set that includes 346 of the world's leading microfinance institutions and covers nearly 18 million active borrowers. The data show remarkable successes in maintaining high rates of loan repayment, but the data also suggest that profit-maximizing investors would have limited interest in most of the institutions that are focusing on the poorest customers and women. Those institutions, as a group, charge their customers the highest fees in the sample but also face particularly high transaction costs, in part due to small transaction sizes. Innovations to overcome the well-known problems of asymmetric information in financial markets were a triumph, but further innovation is needed to overcome the challenges of high costs. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Debt Markets,,Banks&Banking Reform,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4630&r=dev |
| By: | Zhu, Nong; Luo, Xubei |
| Abstract: | Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This paper examines the impact of rural-to-urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in the case of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since remittances are a potential substitute for farm income, the paper presents counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. The results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest the increasing share of non-farm income in total income widens inequality, this paper offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (i) migration is rational self-selection - farmers with higher agricultural productivities choose to remain in local agricultural production while those with higher expected return in urban non-farm sectors migrate; (ii) poorer households facing binding constraints of land shortage are more likely to migrate; and (iii) the poorest poor benefit disproportionately from remittances. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Access to Finance,Inequality |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4637&r=dev |
| By: | Aksoy , M. Ataman; Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin |
| Abstract: | There is a general consensus that most of the poor in developing countries are net food buyers and food price increases are bad for the poor. This could be expected of urban poor, but it is also often attributed to the rural poor. Recent food price increases have increased the importance of this issue, and the possible policy responses to these price increases. This paper examines the characteristics of net food sellers and buyers in nine low-income countries. Although the largest share of poor households are found to be net food buyers, almost 50 percent of net food buyers are marginal net food buyers who would not be significantly affected by food price increases. Only three of the nine countries examined exhibited a substantial proportion of vulnerable households. The average incomes (as measured by expenditure) of net food buyers were found to be higher than net food sellers in eight of the nine countries examined. Thus, food price increases, ceteris paribus, would transfer income from generally higher income net food buyers to poorer net food sellers. The analysis also finds that the occupations and income sources of net sellers and buyers in rural areas are significantly different. In rural areas where food production is the main activity and where there are limited non-food activities, the incomes of net buyers might depend on the incomes and farming activities of net food sellers. These results suggest the need for reevaluation of the consensus on the impact of food prices on food needs. Further work on the regional differences, and more important, on the second order effects, are necessary to answer these questions more precisely. Only on the basis of further analysis can we start generating better policy responses. |
| Keywords: | Food&Beverage Industry,Rural Poverty Reduction,,Poverty Lines |
| Date: | 2008–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4642&r=dev |
| By: | Medlin, Carol; de Walque, Damien |
| Abstract: | A growing number of developing countries have introduced conditional cash transfer programs that provide money to poor families with certain contingencies attached - such as requiring school attendance or regular immunization and health check-ups. As the popularity of conditional cash transfer programs has grown, experimentation with potential applications in other areas of health, such as sexual and reproductive health, and HIV prevention, in particular, has also increased. Evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs have focused almost exclusively on uptake of health and educational services, which make relatively low demands of participants compared with more complex interventions, which require the cessation of risky behaviors, such as smoking, obesity, and substance abuse. The literature on contingency management - based on the principle that behavioral change occurs when appropriate behaviors are reinforced and rewarded - provides a richer picture of the complexity of the use of conditionality to encourage healthy behavioral change. This paper examines developing countries'experiences with conditional cash transfer programs and the results of trials in clinical settings on the efficacy of contingency management, and addresses their relevance for designing conditional cash transfer programs to address risky sexual behavior and promote the prevention of sexually transmitted infections and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Population Policies,Adolescent Health,Disease Control&Prevention,HIV AIDS |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4673&r=dev |
| By: | Henson, Spencer; Jaffee, Steven; Cranfield, John; Blandon, Jose; Siegel, Paul |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the results of an international survey of practitioners with experience in facilitating the participation of African smallholder farmers in supply chains for higher-value and/or differentiated agricultural products. It explores their perceptions about the constraints inhibiting and the impacts associated with this supply chain participation. It also examines their perceptions about the factors affecting the success of project and policy interventions in this area, about how this success is and should be measured, and about the appropriate roles for national governments, the private sector, and development assistance entities in facilitating smallholder gains in this area. The results confirm a growing'consensus'about institutional roles, yet suggest some ambiguity regarding the impacts of smallholder participation in higher-value supply chains and the appropriateness of the indicators most commonly used to gauge such impacts. The results also suggest a need to strengthen knowledge about both the'old'and'new'sets of constraints (and solutions) related to remunerative smallholder inclusion, in the form of the rising role of standards alongside more long-standing concerns about infrastructure and logistical links to markets. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4573&r=dev |
| By: | Somanathan, Aparnaa |
| Abstract: | Financial barriers to seeking care are frequently cited as one of the main causes of underutilization of child health care services. This paper estimates the impact of Indonesia's healthcard on health care use by children. Evaluation of the healthcard effect is complicated by the fact that card allocation was non-random. The analysis uses propensity score matching to control for systematic differences between treatment and control groups. A second potential source of bias is related to contemporaneous, exogenous influences on health care use unrelated to the healthcard itself. Using panel data collected prior to and after the introduction of the healthcard, a difference-in-differences estimator is constructed to eliminate the effects of exogenous changes over time. The author finds that although health care use declined for all children during the crisis years of 1997-2000, use of public sector outpatient services declined much less for children with healthcards. The protective effect of the healthcard on public sector use was concentrated among children aged 0-5 years. The healthcard had no significant impact on use of private sector services. The results highlight the need to provide adequate protection against the financial burden of health care costs, particularly during economic crises. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Systems Development&Reform,Housing&Human Habitats,Health Economics&Finance,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4622&r=dev |
| By: | Hochrainer, S.; Mechler, R.; Pflug, G.; Lotsch, A. |
| Abstract: | This analysis explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate change on the near and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of the incremental role of climate change, along with the associated uncertainties, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-change induced insolvency. This isof major concern to donors, nongovernmental organizations, and others supporting these innovative systems; those actually at-risk; and insurers. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Debt Markets,Hazard Risk Management,,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4631&r=dev |
| By: | Hasnain, Zahid |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between devolution, accountability, and service delivery in Pakistan. It examines the degree of accessibility of local policy-makers and the level of competition in local elections, the expenditure patterns of local governments to gauge their sector priorities, and the extent to which local governments are focused on patronage or the provision of targeted benefits to a few as opposed to providing public goods. The main findings of the paper are three-fold. First, the accessibility of policy-makers to citizens in Pakistan is unequivocally greater after devolution, and local government elections are, with some notable exceptions, as competitive as national and provincial elections. Second, local government sector priorities are heavily tilted toward the provision of physical infrastructure - specifically, roads, water and sanitation, and rural electrification - at the expense of education and health. Third, this sector prioritization is in part a dutiful response to the relatively greater citizen demands for physical infrastructure; in part a reflection of the local government electoral structure that gives primacy to village and neighborhood-specific issues, and in part a reaction to provincial initiatives in education and health that have taken the political space away from local governments in the social sectors, thereby encouraging them to focus more toward physical infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | E-Government,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,E-Government,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Transport Economics Policy&Planning |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4610&r=dev |
| By: | Amiti, Mary; Freund, Caroline |
| Abstract: | Decomposing China's real export growth, of over 500 percent since 1992, reveals a number of interesting findings. First, China's export structure changed dramatically, with growing export shares in electronics and machinery and a decline in agriculture and apparel. Second, despite the shift into these more sophisticated products, the skill content of China's manufacturing exports remained unchanged, once processing trade is excluded. Third, export growth was accompanied by increasing specialization and was mainly accounted for by high export growth of existing products (the intensive margin) rather than in new varieties (the extensive margin). Fourth, consistent with an increased world supply of existing varieties, China's export prices to the United States fell by an average of 1.5 percent per year between 1997 and 2005, while export prices of these products from the rest of the world to the United States increased by 0.4 percent annually over the same period. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Free Trade,Trade Policy,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4628&r=dev |
| By: | Anderson, Kym; Winters, L. Alan |
| Abstract: | While barriers to trade in most goods and some services including capital flows have been reduced considerably over the past two decades, many remain. Such policies harm most the economies imposing them, but the worst of the merchandise barriers (in agriculture and textiles) are particularly harmful to the world's poorest people, as are barriers to worker migration across borders. This paper focuses on how costly those anti-poor trade policies are, and examines possible strategies to reduce remaining distortions. Two opportunities in particular are addressed: completing the Doha Development Agenda process at the World Trade Organization (WTO), and freeing up the international movement of workers. A review of the economic benefits and adjustment costs associated with these opportunities provides the foundation to undertake benefit/cost analysis required to rank this set of opportunities against those aimed at addressing the world's other key challenges as part of the Copenhagen Consensus project. The paper concludes with key caveats and suggests that taking up these opportunities could generate huge social benefit/cost ratios that are considerably higher than the direct economic ones quantified in this study, even without factoring in their contribution to alleviating several of the other challenges identified by that project, including malnutrition, disease, poor education and air pollution. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Emerging Markets,Free Trade,Trade Policy |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4598&r=dev |
| By: | Wang, Hua; Xie, Jian; Li, Honglin |
| Abstract: | In determining domestic water prices, policy makers often need to use information about the demand side rather than only relying on information about the supply side. Household surveys have frequently been employed to collect demand-side information. This paper presents a multiple bounded discrete choice household survey model. It discusses how the model can be utilized to collect and analyze information about the acceptability of different water prices by different types of households, as well as households'willingness to pay for water service improvement. The results obtained from these surveys can be directly utilized in the development of water pricing and subsidy policies. The paper also presents an empirical multiple bounded discrete choice study conducted in Chongqing, China. In this case, domestic water service quality was seriously inadequate, but financial resources were insufficient to improve service quality. With a survey of about 1,500 households in five suburban districts in Chongqing Municipality, this study shows that a significant increase in the water price is feasible as long as the poorest households can be properly subsidized and certain public awareness and accountability campaigns can be conducted to make the price increase more acceptable to the public. The analysis also indicates that the order in which hypothetical prices are presented to respondents systematically affects their answers, and should be taken into account when designing survey instruments. |
| Keywords: | Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Environmental Economics&Policies,Water and Industry,Water Supply and Systems |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4690&r=dev |
| By: | Beck, Thorsten |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews different econometric methodologies to assess the relationship between financial development and growth. It illustrates the identification problem, which is at the center of the finance and growth literature, using the example of a simple Ordinary Least Squares estimation. It discusses cross-sectional and panel instrumental variable approaches to overcome the identification problem. It presents the time-series approach, which focuses on the forecast capacity of financial development for future growth rates, and differences-in-differences techniques that try to overcome the identification problem by assessing the differential effect of financial sector development across states with different policies or across industries with different needs for external finance. Finally, it discusses firm-level and household approaches that allow analysts to dig deeper into the channels and mechanisms through which financial development enhances growth and welfare, but pose their own methodological challenges. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Statistical&Mathematical Sciences |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4608&r=dev |
| By: | Fock, Achim; Wong, Christine |
| Abstract: | The Government of China has placed strong emphasis on addressing problems related to agriculture, farmers, and rural society, with the development of a"new socialist countryside"designated as a top priority for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). The financing of public services in rural areas will be a key determinant of the Plan's success. This report analyzes the performance of the intergovernmental fiscal system - the financing of rural development through counties, townships, and villages - and the impact of recent reforms. The authors show that achieving the government's objectives will require channeling substantial new resources to rural areas. In addition, ensuring the effective transfer of resources and their efficient utilization will require fundamental reforms to a wide range of public institutions, including budget and planning processes, personnel management systems, and the organization of government agencies. The authors argue that a comprehensive reform strategy is needed to address fundamental vertical and horizontal imbalances in the intergovernmental fiscal system The reforms must reach beyond the fiscal system to build improved accountability mechanisms to improve public service delivery at the grassroots level. And, given China's size and diversity, reform efforts must focus on improving incentive structures at the county, township, and village levels. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Economics&Finance,Access to Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Debt Markets, |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4693&r=dev |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Shafiq, M. Najeeb |
| Abstract: | The authors introduce a simple empirical model that assumes a positive stigma (or norm) toward child labor that is common in some developing countries. They illustrate the positive stigma model using data from Guatemala. Controlling for several child and household-level characteristics, the analysis uses two instruments for measuring stigma: a child's indigenous background and the household head's childhood work experience. |
| Keywords: | Street Children,Youth and Governance,Children and Youth,Labor Policies,Primary Education |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4697&r=dev |
| By: | Straub, Stephane; Vellutini, Charles; Warlters, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether infrastructure investment has contributed to East Asia's economic growth using both a growth accounting framework and cross-country regressions. For most of the variables used, both the growth accounting exercise and cross-country regressions fail to find a significant link between infrastructure, productivity and growth. These conclusions contrast strongly with previous studies finding positive and significant effect for all infrastructure variables in the context of a production function study. This leads us to conclude that results from studies using macro-level data should be considered with extreme caution. The Authors suggest that infrastructure investment may have had the primary function of relieving constraints and bottlenecks as they arose, as opposed to directly encouraging growth. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Banks&Banking Reform,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Non Bank Financial Institutions |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4589&r=dev |
| By: | Rijkers, Bob; Laderchi, Caterina Ruggeri; Teal, Francis |
| Abstract: | The Addis Ababa Integrated Housing Development Program aims to tackle the housing shortage and unemployment that prevail in Addis Ababa by deploying and supporting small and medium scale enterprises to construct low-cost housing using technologies novel for Ethiopia. The motivation for such support is predicated on the view that small firms create more jobs per unit of investment by virtue of being more labor intensive and that the jobs so created are concentrated among the low-skilled and hence the poor. To assess whether the program has succeeded in biasing technology adoption in favor of labor and thereby contributed to poverty reduction, the impact of the program on technology usage, labor intensity, and earnings is investigated using a unique matched workers-firms dataset, the Addis Ababa Construction Enterprise Survey. The data are representative of all registered construction firms in Addis and were collected specifically for the purpose of analyzing the impact of the program. The authors find that program firms do not adopt different technologies and are not more labor intensive than non-program firms. There is an earnings premium for program participants, who tend to be relatively well-educated, which is heterogeneous and highest for those at the bottom of the earnings distribution. |
| Keywords: | Labor Markets,Access to Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Microfinance,Labor Policies |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4629&r=dev |
| By: | Deichmann, Uwe; Shilpi, Forhad; Vakis, Renos |
| Abstract: | Using individual level employment data from Bangladesh, this paper presents empirical evidence on the relative importance of farm and urban linkages for rural nonfarm employment. The econometric results indicate that high return wage work and self-employment in nonfarm activities cluster around major urban centers. The negative effects of isolation on high return wage work and on self-employment are magnified in locations with higher agricultural potential. The low return nonfarm activities respond primarily to local demand displaying no significant spatial variation. The empirical results highlight the need for improved connectivity of regions with higher agricultural potential to urban centers for nonfarm development in Bangladesh. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Rural Poverty Reduction,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Labor Policies |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4611&r=dev |
| By: | Dessus, Sebastien; Herrera, Santiago; de Hoyos, Rafael |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a sample of 73 developing countries to estimate the change in the cost of alleviating urban poverty brought about by the recent increase in food prices. This cost is approximated by the change in the poverty deficit, that is, the variation in financial resources required to eliminate poverty under perfect targeting. The results show that, for most countries, the cost represents less than 0.1 percent of gross domestic product. However, in the most severely affected, it may exceed 3 percent. In all countries, the change in the poverty deficit is mostly due to the negative real income effect of those households that were poor before the price shock, while the cost attributable to new households falling into poverty is negligible. Thus, in countries where transfer mechanisms with effective targeting already exist, the most cost-effective strategy would be to scale up such programs rather than designing tools to identify the new poor. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Food&Beverage Industry,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4666&r=dev |
| By: | Labonne, Julien; Chase, Robert S. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the social capital impacts of a large-scale, community-driven development project in the Philippines in which communities competed for block grants for infrastructure investment. The analysis uses a unique data set of about 2,100 households collected before the project started (2003) and after one cycle of sub-project implementation (2006) in 66 treatment and 69 matched control communities. Participation in village assemblies, the frequency with which local officials meet with residents and trust towards strangers increased as a result of the project. However, there is a decline in group membership and participation in informal collective action activities. This may have been because households were time-constrained, so that in order to participate in project activities, they needed to temporarily reduce their participation in informal activities. An alternative explanation is that the project improved the efficiency of formal forms of social capital and thus households needed to rely less on informal forms. Finally, the results indicate that, in the short run, the project might have reduced the number of other investments. |
| Keywords: | Housing&Human Habitats,Access to Finance,Social Accountability,Social Capital,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4678&r=dev |
| By: | Estache, Antonio; Guasch, Jose-Luis; Iimi, Atsushi; Trujillo, Lourdes |
| Abstract: | Multidimensional auctions are a natural and practical solution when auctioneers pursue more than one objective in their public-private-partnership transactions. However, it is difficult to achieve auction efficiency with multiple award criteria. Using auction data from road and railway concessions in Latin America, the probability of renegotiation this paper estimates by a two-stage least squares technique with a binary selection in the first-stage regression. The findings show that auctioneers tend to adopt the multidimensional format when the need for social considerations, such as alleviation of unemployment, is high. This implies that such political considerations could hinder efficiency and transparency in auctions. The analysis also shows that the renegotiation risk in infrastructure concessions increases when multidimensional auctions are used. Rather, good governance, particularly anti-corruption policies, can mitigate the renegotiation problem. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Debt Markets,Infrastructure Economics,E-Business,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2008–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4665&r=dev |
| By: | Luo, Xubei; Zhu, Nong |
| Abstract: | Income inequality in China has risen rapidly in the past decades across regions, between rural and urban sectors, and within provinces. The dynamics of divergence across these sub-national areas have taken the form of a"race to the top"- meaning that all segments of the population, including the poor with low education in lagging inland rural areas, have experienced gains in average income. The largest gains have been registered by those with higher income and education in leading coastal urban areas. Using the China Economic, Population, Nutrition and Health Survey data of 1989 and 2004, we show that the most important factors explaining overall inequality are differential returns to schooling and sector of employment. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination shows that the increase in returns to education explains two-thirds of income changes in urban areas and one-sixth in rural areas. The widening income gaps are the consequence of higher growth in leading urban and coastal areas and that the skilled population has benefited more from the economic reforms carried out during the last 25 years. The authors argue that rising income inequality can be part of a normal process of development at a certain stage, and that the dynamics of spatial income divergence in the form of"a race to the top"can be desirable to some extent as it unleashes competitive pressure and creates incentives for investment in skills. Continuing to improve market efficiency and investing in people, in particular improving education service in lagging areas to poor people, are important for sustainable growth and equitable distribution in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Inequality,Achieving Shared Growth,Population Policies, |
| Date: | 2008–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4700&r=dev |
| By: | Nilsson, Desiree |
| Abstract: | Previous research proposes that peace is more likely to become durable if all rebel groups are included in the settlement reached. The argument implies that if actors are excluded and continue to pursue the military course, this could have a destabilizing effect on the actors that have signed an agreement. This article argues that all-inclusive peace deals - signed by the government and all rebel groups - are not the panacea for peace that many seem to believe. Given that the parties are strategic actors who are forward-looking when making their decisions, the signatories should anticipate that the excluded parties may continue to fight. Therefore, the risk of violent challenges from outside actors is likely to already be factored into the decision-making calculus when the signatories decide to reach a deal, and so does not affect their commitment to peace. Implications from this theoretical argument are tested using unique data on the conflict behavior of the government and each of the rebel groups in internal armed conflicts during the post-Cold War period. The results are well in line with the theoretical expectations and show that whether an agreement leaves out some actor does not affect whether the signatories stick to peace. The results demonstrate that even when excluded rebel groups engage in conflict, this does not affect the signatories'commitment to peace. Hence, the findings suggest that partial peace is possible. |
| Keywords: | Post Conflict Reconstruction,Post Conflict Reintegration,Peace&Peacekeeping,International Affairs,Social Conflict and Violence |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4572&r=dev |
| By: | Yann Duval (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific ( UNESCAP), Thailand) |
| Abstract: | The Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT) launched an exploratory study on trade and investment policy linkages and coordination in 2007 , which included exploratory surveys of private sector stakeholders in three South-Asian countries (Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka) on the need for improved trade and investment policy coordination and coherence based on the Policy Framework for Investment (PFI) developed by OECD. Following a short overview of trade and investment linkages from an Asian perspective, this paper summarizes the key findings from the exploratory surveys and draw preliminary policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Trade and Investment Linkages and Policy Coordination, Asian Developing Countries |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esc:wpaper:5508&r=dev |
| By: | Rina Oktaviani; Eka Puspitawati; Haryadi (Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This research paper intends to analyse: (a) the impacts of ASEAN trade liberalization on the macroeconomy variables – gross domestic product (GDP), Terms of Trade (ToT), balance of trade, inflation and real wage – and agricultural industries (output, exports and imports) in the ASEAN 6 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Viet Nam); and (b) the impact of trade liberalization on income distribution in Indonesia. A multi-country and multi-commodity computable general equilibrium (CGE) GTAP model has been used as the main tool of analysis. |
| Keywords: | Trade and Investment, Indonesai, ASEAN, Agricultural |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esc:wpaper:5108&r=dev |
| By: | Dilli Raj Khanal; Prakash Kumar Shrestha (*Institute for Policy Research and Development, Nepal) |
| Abstract: | This research paper intends to analyse: (a) the impacts of ASEAN trade liberalization on the macroeconomy variables – gross domestic product (GDP), Terms of Trade (ToT), balance of trade, inflation and real wage – and agricultural industries (output, exports and imports) in the ASEAN 6 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Viet Nam); and (b) the impact of trade liberalization on income distribution in Indonesia. A multi-country and multi-commodity computable general equilibrium (CGE) GTAP model has been used as the main tool of analysis. |
| Keywords: | Trade and Investment, Nepal, Impact on productivity |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esc:wpaper:5208&r=dev |
| By: | Prabir De; Abdur Rob Khan; Sachin Chaturvedi (Research and Information System for Developing Countries) |
| Abstract: | The analysis of this paper shows that a regional transit arrangement would perhaps enhance the regional trade, controlling for other variables. At the same time, implementation of e-governance at border is found to be significant determinant of trade flows thus indicating e-filling of Custom formalities has been helping the trade to grow in eastern South Asia. |
| Keywords: | Transit, Trade Barriers, Eastern South Asia, Transit Regime |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esc:wpaper:5608&r=dev |
| By: | Tran Quoc Trung; Nguyen Thanh Tung; Tran Duy Dong; Phan Hoai Duong (Ministry of Planning and Investment, Viet Nam) |
| Abstract: | The study recommends the formulation of policies that support the development of business linkages and networking, and which promote subcontracting arrangements between small and large enterprises or between domestic firms and foreign investment enterprises. It is also necessary to support and facilitate the direct involvement of SMMEs in exporting or indirectly through large manufacturing enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Export-oriented, SME,SMME, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | F1 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esc:wpaper:5408&r=dev |
| By: | Yigezu A. Yigezu; John H. Sanders (Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Purdue University) |
| Abstract: | Many developing regions have excellent potential agricultural resources. However, historically population has become so concentrated on such small holdings that acute poverty and malnutrition now predominate. The food scientists’ response to the chronic nutritional problem has often been subsidized bio-fortification with nutritional supplements or more recently cultivars with higher nutrient levels. Where much of the population is in this inadequate nutrition category as in highland Ethiopia, the supplements are neither financially feasible nor sustainable. The cultivars can provide a few critical nutrients but are not a comprehensive solution. To improve nutrition, it is necessary to increase income so that an increased quality and quantitative diet can be obtained. Here we evaluate a strategy to introduce new agricultural technologies where a central aspect of evaluation is combining the nutritional and income goals. This analysis is undertaken in the Qobo valley, Amhara state, Ethiopia. Using behavioralist criteria for decision making defined by the farmers, the effects of different potential combinations of technologies and supporting agricultural policies on the household nutritional gaps and farmers’ incomes are analyzed. An integrated approach involving the combined technologies of water harvesting, fertilization and Striga resistance combined with improved credit programs has the potential to increase income by 31% and to eliminate malnutrition except in the most adverse state of nature (10% probability). Both the treatment of the nutritional deficits and the decision making criteria defined by farmers are expected to be useful techniques in other developing country technology and policy analysis as well. |
| Keywords: | Adoption, agricultural technologies, Striga resistance, inorganic fertilizers, tied-ridges, marketing strategies, inventory credit, nutrition, income, capped-lexicographic utility. |
| JEL: | O13 O33 Q16 Q18 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pae:wpaper:08-05&r=dev |
| By: | Matias Cattaneo (Department of Economics, University of Michigan); Sebastian Galiani (Department of Economics, Washington University in St. Louis); Paul Gertler (Haas Business School, University of California); Sebastian Martinez (World Bank); Rocio Titiunik (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California) |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of housing for people’s well-being, there is little evidence on the causal impact of housing and housing improvement programs on health and welfare. In this paper, we help to fill this gap by investigating the impact of a large-scale effort by the Mexican Government to replace dirt floors with cement floors on child health and adult happiness. We find that replacing dirt floors with cement floors significantly improves the health of young children. Specifically, we find significant decreases in the incidence of parasitic infestations, diarrhea, and the prevalence of anemia, and an improvement in children’s cognitive development. Additionally, we find that replacing dirt floors by cement floors significantly improves adult welfare, as measured by increased satisfaction with their housing and quality of life, as well as by lower scores on depression and perceived stress scales. |
| JEL: | I12 I38 H43 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0074&r=dev |
| By: | Marius BRÜLHART; Federica SBERGAMI |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of within-country spatial concentration of economic activity on country-level growth, using cross-section OLS and dynamic panel GMM estimation. Agglomeration is measured alternatively through measures of urbanization and through indices of spatial concentration based on data for sub-national regions. Across estimation techniques, data sets and variable definitions, we find evidence that supports the "Williamson hypothesis": agglomeration boosts GDP growth only up to a certain level of economic development. The critical level is estimated at some USD 10,000, corresponding roughly to the current per-capita income level of Brazil or Bulgaria. This implies that the tradeoff between national growth and inter-regional equality may gradually lose its relevance. |
| Keywords: | economic growth; agglomeration; urbanization; dynamic panel estimation |
| JEL: | O4 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lau:crdeep:08.04&r=dev |