|
on Development |
| By: | Monnet Gbakou (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines); Mustapha Sadni Jallab (UNECA - United Nations Economic Commission for Africa - United Nations); René Sandretto (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at analyzing the possible influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in the particular case of Middle East and North African countries (MENA). During the last years, the relation between FDI and growth in LDCs has been discussed extensively in the economic literature. However, the view that FDI stimulates economic growth does not receive an unanimous support. In order to access empirically this relation in MENA countries, we use a dynamic panel procedure with observations per country over the period 1970-2005. To improve efficiency, we use the standard “difference” and “system” GMM and 2SLS estimators. Our findings show that there is no independent impact of FDI on economic growth. The growth-effect of FDI does not also depend on degree of openness to trade and income per capita. But, the positive impact of FDI on economic growth depends on macroeconomic stability: there is a threshold effect of annual percentage change of consumer prices. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment ; macroeconomic stability ; economic growth ; Middle East and North Africa ; two-stage least squares ; generalized moments methods |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00303694_v1&r=dev |
| By: | Fida Karam (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I) |
| Abstract: | Specialists of migration and its development impact gave little attention to the sectoral allocation of remittances invested. This is an interesting topic especially when remittances by destination of developing countries are invested in real estate. Putting aside this fact overestimates the volume of investment in the most productive sectors and creates an illusion of a sustainable growth. Besides, unlike the best part of the literature that focuses on the household impact of remittances, a CGE approach is necessary in order to model the linkages that transmit the influence of migration to other households and sectors. This specific investment of remittances in the real estate sector is taken in consideration in our CGE model by allowing a segmentation of the saving market. This is the main contribution of our paper. We apply this study to Morocco, a country largely dependent on remittances. Furthermore, the literature on Morocco is limited to unpublished reports and surveys. We particularly investigate the impact of immigration restrictive policies and permanent migration on the future evolution of remittances. We then ask what would be the appropriate policies to take the maximum profit from current flows. We find that public policies that diminish the country risk premium in favour of domestic and foreign investors and the reduction of transfer costs are the most favourable in term of economic growth and welfare. The increase in the proportion of remittances invested in productive sectors is unexpectedly harmful. |
| Keywords: | Sequential Dynamics; Computable general equilibrium model; Migration; Remittances. |
| Date: | 2008–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ceswpp:hal-00304885_v1&r=dev |
| By: | Sven Anders (Department of Rural Economy, University of Alberta, Alberta, Canada); Julie A. Caswell (Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst) |
| Abstract: | Food product attributes related to geographical origins are a topical issue in global food trade. The provision of geographical labelling may occur through geographical indications under the mandated trade rules of the TRIPS Agreement, trademarks, or country-of-origin labelling. The overall effect of the expansion of geographical labelling on developing countries depends on a complex mix of market opportunities that may yield substantial benefits as well as implementation costs. Increasingly, the analysis of this overall effect will need to evaluate the joint impacts of different forms of geographical labelling on the market position of developing countries. |
| Keywords: | developing countries, geographical labelling, international trade, TRIPS |
| JEL: | F13 Q13 O19 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dre:wpaper:2008-7&r=dev |
| By: | Beyene, Fekadu; Korf, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | "In Ethiopian development policies, pastoralist areas have recently attracted more attention. However, much debate and policy advice is still based on assumptions that see a sedentary lifestyle as the desirable development outcome for pastoralist communities. This paper investigates current practices of collective action and how these are affected by changing property rights in the pastoralist and agro-pastoralist economies of three selected sites in eastern Ethiopia. We describe forms of collective action in water and pasture resource management and analyze how changing property rights regimes affect incentives for collective action. We illustrate the distributional effects these practices are having on (agro-) pastoralist communities and how these practices are being influenced by the broader political and economic dynamisms of the area." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Pastoralism, Collective action, Property rights, Conflict, Water management, Rangelands management, Environmental management, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:88&r=dev |
| By: | Shiferaw, Bekele; Kebede, Tewodros; Ratna Reddy, V. |
| Abstract: | "Spatial and temporal attributes of watersheds and the associated market failures that accelerate degradation of agricultural and environmental resources require innovative institutional arrangements for coordinating use and management of resources. Effective collective action (CA) allows smallholder farmers to jointly invest in management practices that provide collective benefits in terms of economic and sustainability gains. The Government of India takes integrated watershed management (IWM) as a key strategy for improving productivity and livelihoods in the rain-fed and drought-prone regions. This study investigates the institutional and policy issues that limit effective participation of people in community watershed programs and identifies key determinants for the degree of CA and its effectiveness in achieving economic and environmental outcomes. We use empirical data from a survey of 87 watershed communities in semi-arid Indian villages to identify a set of indicators of CA and its performance in attaining desired outcomes. Factor analysis is used to develop aggregate indices of CA and its effectiveness. Regression methods are then employed to test the effects of certain policy relevant variables and to determine the potential effects of CA in achieving desired poverty reduction and resource improvement outcomes. We find a positive and highly significant effect of CA on natural resource investments, but no evidence of its effects on household assets and poverty reduction outcomes. This may be attributable to longer gestation periods for realizing indirect effects from collective natural resource investments and the lack of institutional mechanisms to ensure equitable distribution of such gains across the community, including the landless and marginal farmers." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Collective action, Institutions, Property rights, Watershed management, Poverty, Environmental impacts, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:85&r=dev |
| By: | Weingart, Anne; Kirk, Michael |
| Abstract: | "This paper introduces and applies an analytical framework to study how formal and informal institutions influence socio-economic change and poverty reduction in rural Cambodia, giving specific reference to property rights and collective action. It focuses on emerging endogenous mechanisms of cooperation as well as on the role of external actors and instruments in forming or enhancing collective action institutions, and enforcing use and ownership rights among the rural poor. Within this framework key contextual factor, such as asset endowments, legal structures, and power relations, have an impact on poverty and rural livelihoods, but are also mediated and changed by property right regimes and local cooperation. Findings indicate that access to and use of natural capital still contributes significantly to rural incomes. Access to natural resources is, however, defined by multiple and overlapping rights, both private and common ones, which are, in turn, governed by formal and informal patterns of cooperation. Collective action also contributes to improve livelihoods. Nevertheless, depending on asset endowments, differences exist in the degree of participation. Owing to Cambodia's recent history of genocide, forced collectivization and resettlement, property rights regimes have been severely affected, remain contested, and are re-established only slowly. In this context, the mutual trust necessary for successful cooperation in common property issues is severely undermined." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Collective action, Property rights, Post-war, Rural development, Livelihoods, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:89&r=dev |
| By: | Barham, James; Chitemi, Clarence |
| Abstract: | "The primary inquiry of this study is to identify and understand the underlying factors that enable smallholder farmer groups to improve their market situation. The specific objective of this paper is to examine to what extent certain group characteristics and asset endowments facilitate collective action initiatives to improve group marketing performance. This objective is approached through an evaluation of a government-led program in Tanzania, which is attempting to increase smallholder farmers' incomes and food security through a market-oriented intervention. Findings suggest that more mature groups with strong internal institutions, functioning group activities, and a good asset base of natural capital are more likely to improve their market situation. Gender composition of groups also factors in group marketing performance. It acts as an enabling factor for male-dominated groups and as a disabling factor for female-only groups. Structural social capital in the form of membership in other groups and ties to external service providers, and cognitive social capital in the form of intragroup trust and altruistic behavior are not significant factors in a group's ability to improve its market situation." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Collective action, Agricultural marketing, Farmer groups, Social capital, Planned change initiatives, Gender, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:74&r=dev |
| By: | Komarudin, Heru; Siagian, Yuliana L.; Colfer, Carol J. Pierce; Neldysavrino; Yentirizal; Syamsuddin; Irawan, Deddy |
| Abstract: | "This study presents an approach to analyzing decentralized forestry and natural resource management and land property rights issues, and catalyzing collective action among villages and district governments. It focuses on understanding the current policies governing local people's access to property rights and decision making processes, and learning how collective action among community groups and interaction among stakeholders can enhance local people's rights over lands, resources, and policy processes for development. The authors applied participatory action research in two villages, one each in the Bungo and Tanjabbar districts of Jambi province (Sumatra), Indonesia, to facilitate identification of priorities through phases of planning, action, monitoring, and reflecting. This study finds that action research may be an effective strategy for fostering collective action and maintaining the learning process that leads groups to be more organized and cohesive, and district government officials to be more receptive to stakeholders. A higher level of collective action and support may be needed to avoid elite capture more effectively." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Decentralization, Natural resource management, Forest, Collective action, Property rights, Action research, Poverty, Devolution, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:90&r=dev |
| By: | German, Laura; Mazengia, Waga; Tirwomwe, Wilberforce; Ayele, Shenkut; Tanui, Joseph; Nyangas, Simon; Begashaw, Leulseged; Taye, Hailemichael; Admassu, Zenebe; Tsegaye, Mesfin; Alinyo, Francis; Mekonnen, Ashenafi; Aberra, Kassahun; Chemangeni, Awadh; Cheptegei, William; Tolera, Tessema; Jotte Zewdie; Bedane, Kiflu |
| Abstract: | "The role of local and external institutions in natural resource management (NRM) is gaining attention in the literature, fostering greater understanding of the relationship between collective action and poverty, collective action and equity, and the conditions under which collective action institutions take root. It has also led to increased understanding of how uncritical practices by external development institutions can propagate social inequities in NRM. Yet little research has been conducted to understand how to foster local collective action institutions where they are absent, or to improve institutional practice. This research integrates empirical and action research in an effort to generate ‘working solutions' to problems facing rural communities in their efforts to manage their natural resources in the highlands of Ethiopia and Uganda. Following a brief introduction to the literature and the research, findings are presented according to two distinct phases of research. Data are first presented on existing forms of collective action, the influence of local and external institutions on economic development, and NRM problems that persist despite their negative livelihood consequences. Action research themes selected from a list of identified problems are then presented in greater detail, with lessons learnt thus far in attempting to overcome institutional barriers to improved NRM. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of findings for research, institutional practice, and policy." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Natural resource management, Collective action, Equity, Livelihoods, East African highlands, Gender, Environmental management, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:86&r=dev |
| By: | Kaganzi, Elly; Ferris, Shaun; Barham, James; Abenakyo, Annet; Sanginga, Pascal; Njuki, Jemimah |
| Abstract: | "Uganda's rapid urbanization, particularly in the capital city Kampala, offers new market opportunities for organized farmers to supply higher value produce for emerging growth markets such as multinational supermarket chains and fast food restaurants. Higher urban incomes allow consumers to shift from small shops and street food stalls to more formalized markets and modern food restaurants. These more formal market outlets provide both food safety and greater choice of produce. Supplying these outlets offers both higher income and improved business relations for farmers, but accessing these markets also requires significant upgrading in terms of product quality, more secure supply chains, and more efficient marketing and business management. To meet these conditions, farmers need to become organized for a marketplace that requires increased levels of bonding social capital to meet upgrade conditions and strengthened bridging social capital through partnerships with service providers and market chain actors to engage with these higher value markets in a long-term manner. One farmers' association in a remote rural area in Southwestern Uganda has successfully sustained market links through sales of high quality Irish potatoes to a fast food outlet in Kampala. To meet the volumes, frequency of supply, and quality parameters demanded by their client, the farmers have had to learn a series of new skills and integrate multiple innovations at the technical, organizational, financial, and marketing levels, and meet many of the classical conditions associated with collective action based on empowerment through social and human capital development. This paper outlines how the use of collective action combined with strong leadership and an iterative market-led learning process have enabled a smallholder farmer's association to supply a perishable crop to a modern food outlet market with stringent quality parameters. Success in this market linkage was possible through effective support from both development and research providers and the strong entrepreneurial drive from the farmer association." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Potato, High value markets, Fast food, Entrepreneurial, Social cohesion, Innovation, Quality, Competitiveness, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:75&r=dev |
| By: | Quisumbing, Agnes R.; McNiven, Scott; Godquin, Marie |
| Abstract: | "This study examines the role of groups and networks in helping poor Filipinos manage their exposure to risks and cope with shocks. It brings together two strands of literature that examine how social capital affects economic variables and investigate the processes by which social capital formation, participation in networks and groups, and trusting behavior comes about. Using a longitudinal study from a province in Northern Mindanao, Philippines, the authors find that households belong to a number of formal and informal groups and networks, but participation differs according to household characteristics. Households belonging to the lower asset quartiles belong to fewer groups, and households with more human and physical capital have larger social networks. Furthermore, wealthier households are more likely to take part in productive groups while membership in civic and religious groups is not limited by economic status. Migrant networks play an important risk-smoothing role via remittances sent by migrant daughters." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Social networks, Groups, Social capital, Poverty, Participation, Gender, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:84&r=dev |
| By: | Dercon, Stefan; Hoddinott, John; Krishnan, Pramila; Woldehannnam, Tassew |
| Abstract: | "Collective action can help individuals, groups, and communities achieve common goals, thus contributing to poverty reduction. Drawing on longitudinal household and qualitative community data, the authors examine the impact of shocks on household living standards, study the correlates of participation in groups and formal and informal networks, and discuss the relationship of networks with access to other forms of capital. In this context, they assess how one form of collective action, iddir, or burial societies, help households attenuate the impact of illness. They find that iddir effectively deal with problems of asymmetric information by restricting membership geographically, imposing a membership fee, and conducting checks on how the funds were spent. The study also finds that while iddir help poor households cope with individual health shocks, but shows that the better-off households belong to more groups and have larger networks. In addition, where households have limited ability to develop spatial networks, collective action has limited ability to respond to covariate shocks. Therefore, realism is needed in terms of the ability of collective action to respond to shocks, and direct public action is more appropriate to deal with common shocks." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Collective action, Burial societies, Shocks, Vulnerability, Poverty, Networks, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:83&r=dev |
| By: | Ferris, Shaun; Engoru, Patrick; Kaganzi, Elly |
| Abstract: | "There is growing pressure for farmers in countries such as Uganda to accelerate their efforts to commercialize production in the face of increasing market competition from neighboring countries and across the world. To assist farmers, a new generation of low cost market information services is being developed that takes advantage of information and communication technologies such as FM radios, mobile phones, and internet-based communications systems, to enable farmers to monitor and adjust to dynamic market conditions in local, national, and export markets. Although there is much interest in market information from farmers, other market chain actors, and service providers, there is skepticism from funding agencies to support such services over the long term, due to past failures. This study therefore aims to evaluate how farmers access and use market information to improve their market decision making. It also evaluates whether there are any advantages of collective action in using market information to improve marketing decisions. This is considered an important point of analysis as virtually all extension plans in Uganda currently use farmer groups as key element of their learning and intervention strategies. Survey results found that all farmers interviewed were able to access market information through radio and mobile phones. In Uganda, up to 94 percent of farmers interviewed owned a radio and 25 percent of farmers owned mobile phones. Up to 52 percent of farmers indicated that receiving Market Information Services (MIS) had a positive impact on their business, and 39 percent stated that it had a lot of impact in terms of decision making and stabilizing incomes." authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Market Information Services, Group Marketing, Collective action, FM Radio, Mobile Phone, SMS, income, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:worpps:77&r=dev |
| By: | Nkonya, Ephraim; Gicheru, Patrick; Woelcke, Johannes; Okoba, Barrack; Kilambya, Daniel; Gachimbi, Louis N. |
| Abstract: | "This article analyzes the on-site and off-site economic impacts of various sustainable land management (SLM) practices in Kenya. Long-term trial data are used to establish the relationship between SLM practices and maize yield. The analysis of on-site effects focuses on the profitability of maize production at the farm level, while the examined off-site effects include carbon sequestration and siltation from maize farms, which increase the cost of potable water production. The major contribution of this study is the use of long-term experimental data to estimate the impacts of land management practices on crop yield and consider their off-site benefits and costs. The results of this study show that soil and water conservation (SWC) structures reinforced with leguminous plants are more profitable when the plants are used as fodder, as opposed to situations in which only SWC structures are used. SWC structures reinforced with vegetation had lower maintenance costs, whereas those that were not reinforced with leguminous trees were not profitable over the long-term period. These results suggest that complementary and multipurpose SWC practices are more likely to be adopted compared to non-complementary and/or single-purpose practices. Thus, SWC practices should be promoted as a package of complementary technologies. If it is not feasible to promote a mix of complementary enterprises, high value crops are likely to make SLM practices more profitable. In areas where SLM practices are not profitable, promotion of alternative livelihoods is necessary. Adoption of SLM also provides global environmental services worth 10% of the net present value of the SLM practices over the 50-year period addressed in the present study Finally, the results of this analysis suggest that farmers who offer significant environmental services should be compensated for their efforts." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agroforestry, Land degradation, Soil erosion, Sustainable land management, Land management, Economic impacts, maize, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:778&r=dev |
| By: | Ferroni, Marco; Mateo, Mercedes; Payne, Mark |
| Abstract: | "This paper analyzes the role of social cohesion in economic and institutional development and, broadly, the creation of welfare in Latin America. The paper defines the concept of social cohesion with reference to the notions of social capital and inequality. Using data and literature on Latin America, the paper argues that low interpersonal trust and entrenched inequality interfere with cohesion. The paper develops and introduces an exploratory index of cohesion structured around the definition proposed. Relying on correlations, and with appropriate caveats, the paper uses this index to explore tentative linkages between levels of cohesion and development outcomes. The paper presents evidence of positive linkages among social cohesion and economic growth, investment and innovation capacity, governmental effectiveness, the quality of public policies, and the predictability of the policy environment. Finally, the paper discusses the significance of these findings and some of the policy implications." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Social cohesion, Social capital, Trust, Inequality, Exclusion, Opportunities, Governance, Institutional development, economic growth, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:777&r=dev |
| By: | Raabe, Katharina |
| Abstract: | "In order to realize agricultural potential and to increase agricultural yields, India's extension system has experienced major conceptual, structural, and institutional changes since the late 1990s. This paper reviews existing reform programs and strategies currently existing in agricultural extension in India. It distinguishes strategies that have been employed to strengthen both the supply and demand sides of service provision in the area of agricultural extension, and it reviews the effects of the demand- and supply-side strategies on the access to and the quality of agricultural extension services. The ultimate objectives are (1) to gain a view on what works where and why in improving the effectiveness of agricultural extension in a decentralized environment; (2) to identify measures that strengthen and improve agricultural extension service provision; and (3) to reveal existing knowledge gaps. Although the range of extension reform approaches is wide, this paper shows that an answer to the question of what works where and why is complicated by the absence of sound and comprehensive qualitative and quantitative impact and evaluation assessment studies. Even evidence from the National Agricultural Technology Project and the Diversified Agricultural Support Project of the World Bank, the women empowerment programs of the Danish International Development Agency, the Andhra Pradesh Tribal Development Project, and the e-Choupal program of the Indian Tobacco Company is subject to methodological and identification problems. Conclusions regarding the importance (1) of implementing both decentralized, participatory, adaptive, and pluralistic demand- and supply-side extension approaches; (2) of involving the public, private, and third (civil society) sectors in extension service provision and funding; and (3) of strengthening the capacity of and the collaboration between farmers, researchers, and extension workers are necessarily tentative and require further quantification. The paper seeks to inform policymakers and providers of extension services from all sectors about the need to make performance assessments and impact evaluations inherent components of any extension program so as to increase the effectiveness of extension service reforms." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Demand-driven and supply-driven agricultural extension services' extension service reforms, Agricultural extension services, Reforms, Demand driven, Supply driven, Governance, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:775&r=dev |
| By: | You, Liangzhi; Johnson, Michael |
| Abstract: | "Agriculture plays a dominant role in nearly all the countries of East and Central Africa, and many face similar agroecological, climatic, and development challenges. As a result, significant scale economies can be made through the regionalization of research and development (R&D) using networks such as the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa. The challenge for such networks, however, is to determine both regional and national research priorities with the highest potential rates of economic return. Methodology to assess regional research priorities is a critical input into this process, particularly when it comes to weighing likely complementarities among individual research programs, thus maximizing impact across countries at the regional level. This paper presents such an approach using spatial analysis and the Dynamic Research Evaluation for Management (Dream) modeling software, which was developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute to assess potential economic returns to agricultural R&D and guide resource allocation decisions. Dream is applied to the East and Central African region to estimate potential economic and technological spillovers from country- and regional-level R&D investments for select commodities based on future projections of supply and demand, trade flows between countries and world markets, and shared agroecologies and farming systems. The results of the study indicate significant potential for agricultural technology spillovers within the region. Countries will therefore reap greater economic benefits in their search for technology solutions if they pool their resources and pursue regional initiatives for the common good." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | DREAM, Technology spillovers, Priority setting, Economic surplus, Agricultural research, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:776&r=dev |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Randriamamonjy, Josee |
| Abstract: | "Monitoring rural household income is important for governments, donors, nongovernmental organizations, researchers, and others involved with development strategies, because increasing rural household income is a primary objective for achieving many development goals, including reducing poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition insecurity. However, accurate assessment of rural household income is time consuming and costly. Using an expenditure-based income measure, data on actual household expenditures per capita obtained from various national surveys for 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, this study used proxy indicators to estimate regression models and then predict and analyze changes in household income per capita between 1985 and 2006. Over the 20-year period, the study predicted annual average real household monthly income per capita at $78 in 1993 international dollars. South Africa was ahead of the group of countries at $225, followed by Côte d'Ivoire and Lesotho at $117 and $91, respectively. Predictions for Nigeria and Zambia were the worst at $28 and $39, respectively. Looking at changes in income over time, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Uganda, Senegal, Mauritania, and Ghana (in declining order) experienced consistent positive growth. In contrast, Zambia, Kenya, and Lesotho showed declining trends, averaging –2.7 percent, –2.0 percent, and –1.3 percent per year, respectively, over the 20-year period. The latter results were not surprising given the low and sometimes negative growth rates in real GDP per capita and real agricultural value added per worker over the same period for those countries. The predicted trends were also consistent with observed trends in poverty and hunger, suggesting that the methodology is a useful and least-cost approach for monitoring household incomes to support evaluation of public investment programs." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Household income, Monitoring and evaluation, Proxy indicators, Public investments, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:771&r=dev |
| By: | Adriana Di Liberto; Francesco Pigliaru; Piergiorgio Chelucci |
| Abstract: | This paper adopts a fixed-effect panel methodology that enables us to take into account both TFP and neoclassical convergence. We use a sample of 76 countries, 1960-2003 and estimate TFP values obtained by using different estimators such as LSDV, Kiviet-corrected LSDV, and GMM à la Arellano and Bond. In our estimates, cross-country TFP dynamics shows that most countries in the sample do not catch up with the USA. We also find conditional convergence in TFP levels and that human capital acts as a robust enhancing factor of technology adoption, as suggested by Nelson and Phelps in 1966. In contrast with previous evidence, in our results even very low level of human capital stocks allow a country to enter a “conditional TFP convergence club” – a result again consistent with the original version of the Nelson-Phelps hypothesis. Further, our results imply a plausible link between stages of development and returns to different levels of education. Finally, the positive influence of human capital on technology catch up is robust to the inclusion of controls for a country’s institutional quality. |
| Keywords: | TFP, catching up, panel data, human capital |
| JEL: | O47 O33 C23 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:200812&r=dev |
| By: | Paul Collier (University of Oxford); Pedro C. Vicente (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Following the wave of democratization during the 1990s, elections are now common in low-income societies. However, these elections are frequently flawed. We investigate the Nigerian general election of 2007, which is to date the largest election held in Africa and one seriously marred by violence. We designed and conducted a nationwide field experiment based on randomized anti-violence grassroots campaigning. We find direct effects on violence outcomes from exploring both subject-surveying and independent data sources. Crucially, we establish that voter intimidation is effective in reducing voter turnout, and that the violence was systematically dissociated from incumbents. We suggest that incumbents have a comparative advantage in alternative strategies, vote buying and ballot fraud. Voter intimidation may be a strategy of the weak analogous to terrorism. |
| Keywords: | Violence, Conflict, Electoral Politics, Political Economy, Randomized Experiment, Field Experiment, Nigeria, West Africa |
| JEL: | D72 D74 O55 P16 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:50&r=dev |
| By: | Roberto Calderon-Colin; Enrique E. Dominguez; Moises Schwartz |
| Abstract: | This paper was prepared for the World Bank 4th Annual Contractual Savings Conference (Washington DC, April 2008) co-organized by Gregorio Impavido (gimpavido@imf.org). The article shows that account transfers among pension administrators in Mexico barely respond to price or return considerations and in general has not improved the consumer's pension balance. Instead of strengthening competition through lower fees and higher returns for the consumer, AFORE switching has so far undermined the system and resulted in the destruction of value. Moreover, "noisy" evaluations of the product by the consumer tend to undermine the power of competition. Thus, an increased number of pension fund managers has not provided a more competitive environment. The theoretical framework allows for the estimation of "noise" and mark-ups in the AFORE industry. As the number of AFOREs increases, the mark-up diminishes at a very slow rate. This implies that more participants in the industry will hardly affect prices. |
| Keywords: | Mexico , Pensions , Pension supervision , Competition , Demand , |
| Date: | 2008–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/177&r=dev |
| By: | Valerie Mercer-Blackman |
| Abstract: | Do tax incentives for science and technology stimulate additional investment? We use detailed data on applications and acceptances for R&D tax incentives, a special survey, and for the first time, the science and technology module from the 2000-2002 Survey of Manufacturers database in Colombia to analyze this question. We estimate the effect of the R&D tax deduction instituted in Colombia using Zellner's Seemingly Unrelated Regressions method, and find that the elasticity of demand of R&D investment in manufacturing is quite high in Colombia compared to other countries, particularly for smaller firms, but that the direct benefit from existing policies is minimal. Overall, the results of the paper suggest that there is a great potential for such incentives to promote R&D investment in Colombia, but in their current form, they fail to target those firms that could benefit the most. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Colombia , Tax incentives , Manufacturing sector , Industrial investment , Economic models , Development , |
| Date: | 2008–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/178&r=dev |
| By: | Mahvash Saeed Qureshi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the structural competitiveness of oil-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa relative to other major oil-exporting developing countries, and investigates reasons for systematic differences in the non-oil export performance across these economies. The analysis reveals that oil-rich Africa lags behind other oil-exporters in terms of diversification, global market share and the overall investment climate. The poor performance of their nonoil sector can be largely attributed to weak infrastructure and institutional quality. The results also show that institutional quality is a significant determinant of the extent to which oil abundance affects the competitiveness of the non-oil sector; thereby explaining the divergent experiences of oil-rich economies across the world. This implies that oil wealth does not necessarily weaken the non-oil tradable sector; countries may mitigate the impact of Dutch disease and benefit from oil booms if revenues are used prudently to reduce oil dependence. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa , Oil producing countries , Oil exporting countries , Competition , Financial institutions , Terms of trade , Export diversification , Foreign investment , |
| Date: | 2008–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/172&r=dev |
| By: | Peter Rangazas; Alex Mourmouras |
| Abstract: | This paper offers possible explanations for three generally observed facts about fiscal policy and development: (F1) The relative size of government increases as an economy develops, (F2) The rise in government and taxation are associated with rising or constant economic growth rates, and (F3) Today's developing countries have larger government sectors than did today's developed countries at similar stages of development. The explanations for these facts are based on the structural transformation from traditional (mostly agricultural) to modern (industrial and post-industrial) production, rising public infrastructure investment, and less representative governments in many of today's developing economies. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Fiscal policy , Development , Developed countries , Developing countries , Government finance statistics , Taxation , |
| Date: | 2008–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/155&r=dev |
| By: | David Locke Newhouse; Irene Yackovlev; Robert Gillingham |
| Abstract: | This paper uses household survey data to estimate the incidence of tax and spending programs in Honduras. Any such exercise is fraught with difficulty, so our simplifying assumptions are carefully explained. Rather than look at tax and spending completely independently, we evaluate net incidence of major programs-such as health care and pensions-to get a more holistic evaluation of redistribution. Our results show that fiscal policy is, on balance, progressive, but that there is room for significant improvement. In particular, energy subsidies, university education and public pension programs provide disproportionate benefits to higher-income households. |
| Keywords: | Honduras , Fiscal policy , Tax policy , Subsidies , Health care , Pensions , Education , |
| Date: | 2008–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/168&r=dev |
| By: | Kenichi Ueda |
| Abstract: | There is world-wide convergence in life expectancy, despite little convergence in GDP per capita. If one values longer life much more than material happiness, the world living standards may this have already converged substantially. This paper introduces the concept of the dynastic general equilibrium value of life to measure welfare gains from the increase in life expectancy. A calibration study finds sizable welfare gains, but these gains hardly mitigate the large inequality among countries. A conventional GDP-based measure remains a good approximation for (non) convergence in world living standards, even when adjusted for changes in life expectancy. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Income distribution , Population , Aging , Welfare , Cost of living , |
| Date: | 2008–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/158&r=dev |
| By: | Anubha Dhasmana; Paulo Flavio Nacif Drummond |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the question of adequacy of reserves in sub-Saharan African countries in light of the shocks faced by these countries. Literature on optimal reserves so far has not paid attention to the particular shocks facing low-income countries. We use a two-good endowment economy model facing terms of trade and aid shocks to derive the optimal level of reserves by comparing the cost of holding reserves with their benefits as an insurance against a shock. We find that the optimal level of reserves depends upon the size of these shocks, their probability, and the output cost associated with them, |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Sub-Saharan Africa , Reserves adequacy , Foreign exchange reserves , Balance of payments , Terms of trade , Regional shocks , |
| Date: | 2008–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/150&r=dev |
| By: | Angelo Antoci (DEIR, University of Sassari); Paolo Russu (University of Sassari); Elisa Ticci (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | Vulnerability to scarcity or to reduction of natural capital depends on defensive substitution possibilities that, in turn, are affected by the availability of other productive factors. However, in several developing countries asset distribution tends to be highly skewed. Taking into ac- count these elements, this paper argues that environmental degradation may represent a push factor of economic development in an economy polarized into two main classes (the Rich and the Poor) and characterized by the following stylized facts: a) the main income source of the rural poor is self-employment in traditional activities highly depending on natural resources; b) labor remuneration in rural sector represents the basic opportunity cost for (unskilled) labor in the economy. Thus, given that environmental degradation reduces labor productivity of the rural poor, it may depress wages; c) production of the modern sector managed by the rich is less affected by depletion of natural resources because they can adopt defensive strategies that the poor cannot. They are able to defend themselves by partially substituting natural resources with physical capital accumulation and wage labor employment. We will show that, in this context, environmental depletion may benefit the modern sector through an increase in low cost labor supply and, in turn, it may stimulate economic transition. However the structural change is likely to result in an increase in inequality. |
| Keywords: | Production, Consumption Choices, Welfare |
| JEL: | D62 O11 O13 O15 O41 Q20 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2008.48&r=dev |
| By: | Kumagai, Satoru; Gokan, Toshitaka; Isono, Ikumo; Souknilanh, Keola |
| Abstract: | It is important to be able to predict changes in the location of populations and industries in regions that are in the process of economic integration. The IDE Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) has been developed with two major objectives: (1) to determine the dynamics of locations of populations and industries in East Asia in the long-term, and (2) to analyze the impact of specific infrastructure projects on the regional economy at sub-national levels. The basic structure of the IDE-GSM is introduced in this article and accompanied with results of test analyses on the effects of the East West Economic Corridor on regions in Continental South East Asia. Results indicate that border costs appear to play a big role in the location choice of populations and industries, often a more important role than physical infrastructures themselves. |
| Keywords: | Southeast Asia, East Asia, Economic geography, International economic integration, Geographical Simulation Model, Spatial economics |
| JEL: | D59 F29 O53 R49 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper159&r=dev |
| By: | SAWADA Yasuyuki; YAMADA Hiroyuki; KUROSAKI Takashi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the gap between the first target of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the actual allocation of grant aid in the late-1990s and the early-2000s in order to identify necessary policy adjustments to achieve the goal. As a theoretical framework, we extend the poverty-targeting model of Besley and Kanbur (1988) by considering multiple donors and possible strategic interactions among them. To test theoretical predictions, we employ detailed data on grant aid allocation of eleven major aid donor countries and on aid disbursement of six international institutions including the IBRD, IDA, and UN organizations. Four main empirical results emerged. First, both in the late-1990s and the early-2000s, grant allocations from Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, and UK are consistent with the necessary conditions of optimal poverty targeting. Second, we found that there is a negative population scale effect for aid allocation, suggesting that strategic motives may also exist. Third, the overall results for multilateral donors indicate that allocation patterns are consistent with the theory of poverty targeting. Finally, there has been a recent improvement in coordination among major donors in reducing global poverty. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:08025&r=dev |
| By: | TODO Yasuyuki |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of Japanese aid-funded technical assistance programs in the Indonesian foundry industry funded, applying difference-in-differences propensity score matching estimation to a unique firm-level dataset. The major finding is that the average effect of the aid programs on the change in the reject ratio is negative and significant, suggesting that these programs help local participant firms improve their technology. However, the effect of the programs is limited to their participants and does not spill over to non-participants. In addition, technical assistance programs provided by the local counterpart of aid after the completion of the aid programs do not seem to improve technology of participants on average. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:08024&r=dev |