|
on Development |
| By: | Olivier Dagnelie; Philippe LeMay-Boucher |
| Abstract: | In the light of first-hand data from a Beninese urban household survey in Cotonou, we investigate several motives aiming to explain participation in Rotating Savings and Credit ASsociations. We provide anecdotal pieces of evidence, descriptive statistics, FIML regressions and matching estimates which tend to indicate that most individuals use their participation in a rosca as a device to commit themselves to save money and to deal with self-control problems. |
| Keywords: | ROSCA, self-control, commitment device, Benin |
| JEL: | G2 O16 O17 |
| Date: | 2008–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aub:autbar:735.08&r=dev |
| By: | Adriana Moreira Amado (UnB); Marco Flávio da Cunha Resende (Cedeplar-UFMG); Frederico G. Jayme Jr. (Cedeplar-UFMG) |
| Abstract: | The Minskyan approach to financial instability and its effects on the real economy have recently been revived in order to explain the exchange rate crises undergone by the so-called emergent economies. Economies of this type are characterized by repeated scarcity of foreign currency, which can be explained by using Neo-Schumpeterian theory. Based on the Minskyan approach and on the Neo-Schumpeterian literature, this study seeks to demonstrate that there is a cyclic recurrence of exchange rate crises in Latin-American (peripheral) economies. By using data on international liquidity, the balance of payments and the increase in production in the G7 economies and in thirteen Latin-American economies, it was found that the Latin-American economies mirror the cycles of international liquidity. |
| Keywords: | financial instability, national innovation system, cycles |
| JEL: | F32 F33 F43 O30 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td327&r=dev |
| By: | Ahmed, Akhter U.; Hill, Ruth Vargas; Smith, Lisa C.; Wiesmann, Doris M.; Frankenberger, Tim; Gulati, Kajal; Quabili, Wahidand; Yohannes, Yisehac |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Poor, Statistics, Hunger, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:2020dp:43&r=dev |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Fan, Shenggen; Yu, Bingxin; Kanyarukiga, Sam |
| Abstract: | "An economywide, multimarket (EMM) model was developed for Rwanda to analyze the linkages and trade-offs between growth and poverty reduction goals at both macro- and micro-economic levels. The model includes 30 agricultural commodities or commodity groups from eight broad agricultural subsectors, along with two aggregated nonagricultural sectors. The analysis compares the economic, income, and poverty effects of a variety of growth scenarios based on existing national subsector growth targets. The analysis shows 6 percent of CAADP's agricultural GDP growth target is achievable if growth reaches its target at the agricultural subsectoral level. But it is not enough for the country to achieve the MDG One, although the national poverty rate in 2015 will be 17 percent lower than that in 2005. Moreover, the household groups with the smallest landholding size, female-headed, or with few opportunities to participate cash crop production seem to benefit less from such growth. The study also examines the different growth-poverty linkages at agricultural subsector level, and shows that growth driven by productivity increases in staple crops and livestock production can reduce the poverty more than in the case where growth is driven by export crops or by the nonagricultural sector. The analysis also shows that to achieve growth required by CAADP and MDG One, the country needs to substantially beef up its public investment in agriculture. The share of agricultural spending in total government spending is required to increase from the current level of 5 percent to 10-35 percent in 2015." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agricultural growth, Poverty reduction, Growth dynamics, Public investment, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:689&r=dev |
| By: | Hoddinott, John; Cohen, Marc J. |
| Abstract: | "The current global agreement governing food aid—the Food Aid Convention (FAC)—will expire in 2007. It has come under heavy criticism as has the diffuse set of broader food aid governance institutions that has emerged in the last 50 years. These institutions are characterized by overlapping mandates, differing degrees of authority and legitimacy, varied levels of transparency in decisionmaking, and problematic representation of the major stakeholders. A number of issues are likely to arise during the course of negotiations over a new FAC. These include its objectives; the nature of commitments—whether to express them in tonnage, value, or nutritional terms; the level of commitments and their distribution among donor countries; monitoring and enforcement of commitments; representation on the FAC governing body among food aid donor- and recipient-country governments and civil society organizations; and the institutional “home” of the FAC. More specifically, there is debate over such questions as whether the new FAC should have an “instrument focus”—food aid—or a “problem focus” such as “food security” or “hunger.” If the focus is on addressing hunger, should food aid under the FAC be restricted to emergencies only or should it pertain to broader food security issues? Should the FAC be a low-key forum for exchange of information or should it have some meaningful ways of monitoring commitments and encouraging compliance by both donors and recipients? Debates such as these will reflect views on the purposes of food aid itself. Conversely, debates regarding these broader questions carry consequences for the formation of views on the issues involved in the FAC negotiations. This paper's purpose is solely to outline issues and options; hence it does not advocate for particular positions." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Food aid, International agreements, International organizations, Humanitarian assistance, Human rights, Local purchase, Triangular transaction, Development assistance, Trade agreements, Grain trade, Code of conduct, Needs assessment, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:690&r=dev |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | "The institution of marriage plays some role in determining one's risk of exposure to HIV. Since the transmission of HIV in the population is mainly through sexual activity, avoiding infection depends on risk-avoiding behavior. Consistently, empirical results show that excess mortality is concentrated in not-yet married adults aged 20-39 among both men and women. Therefore, the choice of when and who to marry appears to be related to risk of exposure. The objective of this paper is to determine the effect that schooling has on HIV/AIDS excess mortality, using panel data from South Africa. This paper tests the hypothesis that schooling affects when and who one marries and thus impacts the risk of mortality from HIV/AIDS. The effect could be negative or positive. On the one hand, since educated agents have incentives to secure returns to their human capital in the future, more education implies earlier marriage, given that the marriage institution effectively decreases the HIV-related mortality risk. On the other hand, education increases the opportunity costs of marriage especially for women, who need to increase their time spent in the household. Thus, schooling may increase mortality risks due to the increased risk of HIV infection... Results show that schooling increases excess mortality among women, but not among men... In sum, schooling increases the opportunity cost of marriage for women, which delays marriage and increases their mortality risks in high HIV-prevalence societies, but has the opposite effect on men. Our analysis demonstrated the need to integrate our understandings of the marriage market, the labor market, schooling investments, and youth behavior to identify the determinants of AIDS-related excess mortality." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Marriage, Schooling, Excess mortality, HIV/AIDS, Gender, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:691&r=dev |
| By: | Al-Hassan, Ramatu M.; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | "The development pattern in Ghana is characterised by a north-south divide in which the north lags far behind the south... This paper sets out to identify avenues for pro-poor growth in Ghana, focussing on agricultural opportunities, particularly in northern Ghana. Using an economywide, multimarket model and based on time series production data between 1991 and 2000 and Ghana Living Standards Survey data of 1991/92 and 1998/99, this paper analyzes the possible poverty reduction trends up to 2015 by assuming different patterns of growth. The results show that agriculture-led growth has a larger poverty reducing effect than nonagriculture-led growth... A review of the literature shows that while the north generally is a net migration area, the rewards of migration have been limited because people who migrate have no skills and are, therefore, limited to entering the informal job market where wages are low. The implication is to enhance this labour with education and skills. Ultimately, the regions must attract production investment to boost economic activity and generate local growth. The state must play a leading role in investing in productive and social infrastructure as a way of facilitating the environment for private sector operators.: from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Pro-poor growth, Pro-poor policies, Regional inequality, Poverty reduction, Agricultural growth, Economywide modeling, Public investment, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:693&r=dev |
| By: | Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | "Despite its strong growth record, Botswana faces two prominent development challenges: the onslaught of HIV/AIDS and the slowdown in diamond mining. This study estimates the growth and distributional impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and considers its implications for the country's development prospects, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model that accounts for the cost of treatment. The results of this analysis indicate that HIV/AIDS reduces GDP growth by 1.6 percent, increases the absolute poverty headcount by 1.5 percentage points and disproportionately hurts labor-intensive manufacturing. Therefore, while mining has dominated the recent slowdown in Botswana's growth, the present findings suggest that HIV/AIDS is undermining economic diversification. Although providing treatment is projected to reclaim a quarter of the lost growth and a third of the poverty caused by the pandemic, the fiscal burden of treatment will constrain diversification, thus underscoring Botswana's need for development assistance. Furthermore, focusing resources toward treatment may worsen inequality, since the primary beneficiaries will be middle-income and urban households. Therefore, while HIV/AIDS is undermining Botswana's success story, both unemployment and a stagnant rural economy will remain binding constraints against further pro-poor development." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Growth, Poverty, Economic development, HIV/AIDS, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:697&r=dev |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Sarpong, Daniel B. |
| Abstract: | "An economywide, multimarket model is constructed for Ghana and the effects of agricultural soil erosion on crop yields are explicitly modeled at the subnational regional level for eight main staple crops. The model is used to evaluate the aggregate economic costs of soil erosion by taking into account economywide linkages between production and consumption, across sectors and agricultural subsectors. To fill a gap in the literature regarding economic cost analysis of soil erosion, this paper also analyzes the poverty implications of land degradation. The model predicts that land degradation reduces agricultural income in Ghana by a total of US$4.2 billion over the period 2006–2015, which is approximately five percent of total agricultural GDP in these ten years. The effect of soil loss on poverty is also significant at the national level, equivalent to a 5.4 percentage point increase in the poverty rate in 2015 compared to the case of no soil loss. Moreover, soil loss causes a slowing of poverty reduction over time in the three northern regions, which currently have the highest poverty rates in the country. Sustainable land management (SLM) is the key to reducing agricultural soil loss. The present findings indicate that through the adoption of conventional SLM practices, the declining trend in land productivity can be reversed, and that use of a combination of conventional and modern SLM practices would generate an aggregate economic benefit of US$6.4 billion over the period 2006–2015. SLM practices would therefore significantly reduce poverty in Ghana, particularly in the three northern regions." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Land degradation, Costs, Agricultural soil loss, Economywide modeling, Modeling cost of land degradation, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:698&r=dev |
| By: | Mogues, Tewodaj; Ayele, Gezahegn; Paulos, Zelekawork |
| Abstract: | Gezahegn Ayele: DCA, Ethiopia |
| Keywords: | Public investments, Public spending, Rural welfare, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:702&r=dev |
| By: | Huang, Zuhui; Zhang, Xiaobo; Zhu, Yunwei |
| Abstract: | "Wenzhou used to be one of the poorest regions in eastern China. With limited arable land, poor road access to major cities, and little support from the upper level governments, this region seemed to lack all the conditions necessary for economic growth. However, over the past several decades Wenzhou has developed the most dynamic private sector in China, and has accordingly achieved one of the fastest growth rates. In particular, the footwear industry in Wenzhou has grown from a negligible market share to the largest in China. Here, we report a survey of 140 Wenzhou-based footwear enterprises of various scales, and use this information to examine the driving forces behind the dramatic rural industrial growth seen in this region. Our results show that clustering deepens the division of labor in the production process and makes it possible for small entrepreneurial firms to enter the industry by focusing on a narrowly defined stage of production. Therefore, Wenzhou represents an example of how clustering plays a significant role in helping fledgling rural industries overcome the growth constraints of capital and technology in the incipient stage of industrialization." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Cluster analysis, Industrialization, Finance, Economic development, Nonfarm economy, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:705&r=dev |
| By: | Pender, John |
| Abstract: | "During the past several decades dramatic improvement has occurred in agricultural productivity and livelihoods in South and East Asia, stimulated by the Green Revolution and supported by several other factors. Nevertheless, hundreds of millions of rural people in less-favored environments of this region still live in poverty and received limited benefit from the Green Revolution. To address these problems, alternative technological approaches to the conventional Green Revolution technologies are being advocated to address the problems of poor farmers in less-favored areas of Asia, including low external input and sustainable agricultural approaches, organic agriculture and biotechnology. This paper reviews the literature on agricultural technology options in South and East Asia, drawing conclusions concerning technology strategies to reduce poverty among poor farmers in less-favored areas of this region. Among the main conclusions of the review are the following: 1. There is no technology approach that will work in all of the diverse circumstances of South and East Asia. 2. It is difficult, but not impossible, to identify and promote technologies that will substantially improve the livelihoods of poor people in less-favored areas. 3. Key requirements for technologies to be taken up by farmers and to have a substantial impact on reducing poverty are that the technology is profitable in a relatively short period of time; does not substantially increase risks; and is consistent with farmers' endowments of knowledge, management skill, land, labor, and other assets. 4. New technologies, by themselves, are not sufficient to bring about sustainable rural development and elimination of rural poverty, although they can have a major impact. Effective institutions and a stable and supportive policy environment are also critical. 5. Effective farmers' organizations accountable to poor farmers are a critical need for the success of all technologies in reaching the poor. Such organizations are needed to reduce the costs and improve the effectiveness of technical assistance efforts for all technologies, and are particularly important for technologies that require effective collective action and for increasing smallholders' access to markets for organic and other high value products. 6. Improved methods of technology dissemination are needed to reach poor farmers in less-favored areas. Top down technology transfer approaches that worked well with simple technology packages do not work as well with complex technologies that have to be adapted to local circumstances based on agro-ecological principles and local conditions. These lessons should give pause to advocates one particular technological approach as the solution for poor farmers in less favored environments of Asia and elsewhere. What farmers need are not technology dogmas but options that can work in their context, combining what is useful from different approaches. This requires a pragmatic approach to learning what works well where and why. In pursuit of such pragmatic options for farmers, research and development programs should not ignore the potentials of traditional farming practices or intensive Green Revolution type technologies, which are well suited to farmers' needs in many contexts." - from authors' abstract. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural technology, Low-external input agriculture, Organic farming, biotechnology, Sustainable agriculture, Less favored areas, Rural poverty, Land resources, Land management, Poverty reduction, small farms, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:709&r=dev |
| By: | Ueyama, Mika |
| Abstract: | "A tremendous increase in the number of orphans associated with a sharp rise in prime-age adult mortality due to AIDS has become a serious problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, more than 30 percent of school-aged children have lost at least one parent in Malawi. Lack of investments in human capital and adverse conditions during childhood are often associated with lower living standards in the future. Therefore, if orphans face an increased risk of poverty, exploitation, malnutrition, and poorer access to health care and schooling, early intervention is critical so as to avoid the potential poverty trap. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of orphanhood/parental death on children's mortality risks, migration behaviors, and schooling outcomes, by using household panel data from Malawi, which has the eighth-highest HIV prevalence rates in the world. A number of studies have analyzed the relationship between parental death and children's school enrollment, but very few have considered mortality and mobility of orphans. This study uses the Malawi Complementary Panel Survey (CPS) conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and another institution between January 2000 and July 2004. Since these panel data do not track individuals that move to other households, we take into account sample attritions of children. This study uses three estimation methodologies to explore different aspects of impacts. First, we analyze regression models with controls for various sets of household and child characteristics and for village fixed effects to examine heterogeneous impacts of orphanhood across different types of households. Second, we employ household fixed-effect models to test the differential effects of orphanhood on welfare outcomes among different types of orphans living in the same household. Third, we examine the impact of recent parental death—parental death between 2000 and 2004—on schooling outcomes. Empirical results show that maternal orphans, as well as double orphans, tend to face higher mortality risks and lower schooling outcomes than paternal and non-orphans do. This is especially so for boys. Similarly, maternal and double orphans tend to move to other households more frequently. Compared to adolescent orphans, the impact on younger orphans who enrolled in school after the introduction of universal free primary education in 1994 is more muted, suggesting that free primary education policies may have mitigated adverse shocks from parental death. More interestingly, the impacts of orphanhood on schooling outcomes are significantly gender-dependent: boys face severer negative impacts of being orphans than girls do. These empirical results are robust to sample attrition due to mortality and mobility." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Orphans, Mortality, HIV/AIDS, Mobility, Sample attrition, Education, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:710&r=dev |
| By: | Siddig, El Fatih Ali; El-Harizi, Khalid; Prato, Bettina |
| Abstract: | "Despite the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which brought to an end 20 years of civil war in the Sudan, this country continues to experience smaller-scale conflicts, particularly around access to and control of natural resources. Some observers lay the blame for this on ethnopolitical or tribal divisions. However, this paper argues that there are a variety of factors at play behind these conflicts, notably the combination of resource scarcity with a crisis of governance that is particularly evident in transitional areas like the Kordofan region. To gain a sense of the range of conflicts around natural resources in Kordofan, the authors reviewed existing records such as government archives; conducted interviews with politicians, federal and state government officials, farmers, pastoralists, and Native Administration leaders; and investigated findings in the field. Interviews also served to examine people's knowledge about government natural resource policies and their perceptions of the roles played by government and the Native Administration in conflict management and resolution. The paper presents 20 cases of stalemate competition or open conflict over natural resources in Kordofan. The cases center on (1) conflicts between farmers and herders over stock routes, gum arabic forests, gardens, watering points, and the use of dars (tribal homelands); (2) conflicts between herders and small farmers and government agents or large private investors over mechanized farming areas, oil infrastructure, and other private investments. In their analysis of natural resource governance in Sudan, the authors find that natural resources policies have often been weak foundations for sustainable resource use, and in some cases they have actually contributed to conflict. In addition, the volatile path of government devolution efforts concerning natural resources has undermined governance of these resources. While conflicts between farmers and herders were managed relatively successful in the past through customary land tenure systems, this is less and less the case today as a result of larger herds, reduced water and pasture, instability and prejudices stirred up by the war, and a proliferation of arms among herders. In addition, patron–client politics, weak natural resource management and development policies, and top-down government institutions have encouraged ethnic polarization and social divisions. The authors find that measures are needed to reform the process of natural resource management, making land use planning more comprehensive, building on local livelihood systems, and increasing public spending on infrastructure. In addition, sustainable property rights on farmland and on mobile resources should be redefined, and informal conflict management mechanisms restored to the extent that this is possible." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Conflict management, Natural resource management, Small farmers, Land use, Livelihoods, Public spending, infrastructure, Property rights, Governance, Sustainability, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:711&r=dev |
| By: | Smith, Lisa C.; Wiesmann, Doris |
| Abstract: | "This paper uses data from national household expenditure surveys to explore whether food insecurity is more severe in South Asia or Sub-Saharan Africa. It employs two indicators of the diet quantity dimension of food insecurity, or the inability to access sufficient food: the prevalence of food energy deficiency and the prevalence of severe food energy deficiency. It also employs two indicators of the diet quality dimension, indicating lack of access to nutritious food: the prevalence of low diet diversity and the percent of energy from staple foods. It finds the regions' food energy deficiency prevalences to be quite close (51 percent in South Asia, 57 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa). However, the prevalence of severe food energy deficiency, which is more life threatening, is higher in Sub-Saharan Africa (51 percent versus 35 percent in South Asia). From a diet quality standpoint, the regions appear to suffer from a comparable and high reliance on staple foods in the diet to the neglect of foods rich in protein and micronutrients, but that Sub-Saharan Africa may be doing worse, as reflected in less diverse diets. The results confirm that both regions suffer from deep food insecurity problems but point to Sub-Saharan Africa as the region with the more severe problem, particularly when it comes to the diet quantity dimension of food insecurity. In deciding which region should be given greater emphasis in the international allocation of scarce development resources, the fact that the numbers of people affected by food insecurity are higher in South Asia should be taken into consideration." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | food security, Food energy deficiency, Diet quality, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:712&r=dev |
| By: | Zhang, Xiaobo; Xing, Li; Fan, Shenggen; Luo, Xiaopeng |
| Abstract: | "Over the past several decades, China has made tremendous progress in market integration and infrastructure development. Demand for natural resources has increased from the booming coastal economies, causing the terms of trade to favor the resource sector, which is predominantly based in the interior regions of the country. However, the gap in economic development level between the coastal and inland regions has widened significantly. In this paper, using a panel data set at the provincial level, we show that Chinese provinces with abundant resources perform worse than their resource-poor counterparts in terms of per capita consumption growth. This trend that resource-poor areas are better off than resource-rich areas is particularly prominent in rural areas. Because of the institutional arrangements regarding property rights of natural resources, most gains from the resource boom have been captured either by the government or state owned enterprises. Thus, the windfall of natural resources has more to do with government consumption than household consumption. Moreover, in resource-rich areas, greater revenues accrued from natural resources bid up the price of non-tradable goods and hurt the competitiveness of the local economy." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Regional inequality, Resource curse, Dutch disease, Property rights, Rural-urban linkages, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:713&r=dev |
| By: | Yesuf, Mahmud; Bluffstone, Randy |
| Abstract: | "Production systems in low-income developing countries are generally poorly diversified, focusing on rainfed staple crop production and raising livestock. These activities are inherently risky and investment and production decisions by farm households are therefore made within environments that are affected by risk. Because of poorly developed or absent credit and insurance markets it is difficult to pass any of these risks to a third party. As a result, it is often found that even when the expected net return is high, households are reluctant to adopt new agricultural technologies when they involve risk. Better understanding risk behavior will be essential for identifying appropriate farm-level strategies for adaptation to climate change by low-income farmers. Despite risk's potentially central role in farm investment decisions, there have been few attempts to estimate the magnitude and nature of risk aversion of farm households in low-income developing countries. To partially close this gap, this paper uses an experimental approach applied to 262 households in the Ethiopian highlands with real payoffs. By incorporating both small and large stakes and gains and losses into the experiment, we test for the presence of low stake risk aversion and loss aversion. We find that more than 50 percent of the households are severely or extremely risk averse. This contrasts with studies in Asia where most household decision-makers exhibit moderate to intermediate risk aversion. We find that households that stand to lose as well as gain something from participation in games are significantly more risk averse than households playing gains-only games. This strongly suggests that agricultural extension efforts involving losses as well as gains may face systematic resistance by farmers in low-income, high-risk environments. Promotion of technologies with downside risks – even if the upside potential is enormous – should therefore be combined with insurance or other support. We also find that even without the possibility of losses households are much more averse to risk when stakes are high. Results indicate that insurance or other support can likely be phased out. After initial successes have convinced farmers that technologies are viable, risk aversion declines. There are also significant differences in risk averting behavior between relatively poorer and wealthier farm households, which is consistent with decreasing absolute risk aversion. This suggests that as wealth is built up households are willing to take on more risk in exchange for higher returns. Both these findings suggest a strong path dependence. Efforts to develop poor rural areas through promotion of risky technologies should take this path dependence into account. Early successes are important, but households should also be allowed to build up wealth before they are challenged or tempted to take on more risky ventures. Furthermore, the finding that even without the possibility of losses households are much more risk averse when stakes are higher, suggests that agricultural extension should start modestly before asking households to take on larger gambles." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | experimental studies, loss aversion, risk aversion, Risk management, econometric models, Farm households, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:715&r=dev |
| By: | Fan, Shenggen; Gulati, Ashok; Thorat, Sukhadeo |
| Abstract: | "This paper reviews the trends in government subsidies and investments in and for Indian agriculture; develops a conceptual framework and model to assess the impact of various subsidies and investments on agricultural growth and poverty reduction; and, presents several reform options with regard to re-prioritizing government spending and improving institutions and governance. There are three major findings. First, initial subsidies in credit, fertilizer, and irrigation have been crucial for small farmers to adopt new technologies. Small farms are often losers in the initial adoption stage of a new technology since prices of the agricultural products are typically being pushed down by greater supply of products from large farms, which adopted the new technology. But as more and more farmers have adopted HYV, continued subsidies have led to inefficiency of the overall economy. Second, agricultural research, education, and rural roads are the three most effective public spending items in promoting agricultural growth and poverty reduction during all periods. Finally, the trade-off between agricultural growth and poverty reduction is generally small among different types of investments. As for agricultural research, education, and infrastructure development, they have large growth impact and a large poverty reduction impact. Several policy lessons can be drawn. Agricultural input and output subsidies have proved to be unproductive, financially unsustainable, environmentally unfriendly in recent years, and contributed to increased inequality among rural Indian states. To sustain long-term growth in agricultural production, and therefore provide a long-term solution to poverty reduction, the government should cut subsidies of fertilizer, irrigation, power, and credit and increase investments in agricultural research and development, rural infrastructure, and education. Promoting nonfarm opportunities is also important. However, simply reallocating public resources is not the full solution. Reforming institutions can have an equal, if not larger, impact on future agricultural and rural growth and rural poverty reduction." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Rural poverty, Agricultural growth, Public investments, subsidies, Pro-poor growth, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:716&r=dev |
| By: | Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | "Global retail chains are becoming increasingly dominant in the global food trade and their rise leads to dramatic impacts on agricultural supply chains and on small producers. However, the prospects and impacts of a food retail revolution in poor countries are not yet well understood. Here, we examine this question in Madagascar, a poor but stable country where global retailers have been present for over a decade. Our survey and analysis finds that while global retail chains sell better quality food, their prices are 40 to 90% higher, ceteris paribus, than those seen in traditional retail markets. In poor settings, characterized by high food price elasticities, a lack of willingness to pay for quality, and small retail margins, supermarkets appear to set prices with an eye toward maximizing profits based on price-inelastic demands for quality products from a small middle class interested in one-stop shopping. It seems unlikely that global retail chains will further increase their food retail share in such poor settings." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Food retail, Supermarkets, Food quality, Poor Developing countries, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:719&r=dev |
| By: | Harizi, Khalid El; Zaki, El Sayed; Prato, Bettina; Shields, Ghada |
| Abstract: | "In this paper we present the findings of a qualitative investigation into some dimensions and implications of policy volatility in the realms of natural resource (NR) governance and devolution in contemporary Sudan, with particular reference to Greater Kordofan. Our goal is to map out some aspects of the interplay between volatility, disempowerment processes affecting both state agents and the rural population, and certain problems of governance that are characteristic but not unique to Sudan. In particular, we argue that volatility is a dimension of poor governance worthy of investigation in its own right, as it is a primary ingredient of what we may call a “self-disempowering state,” where adaptive learning in policy processes is impeded and successful devolution faces particularly complex obstacles. The policy domain that we consider for analysis includes laws, regulations and policies enacted under the label of “Decentralization, Land Allocation and Land Use,” as well as large development projects supporting the decentralization or devolution of NR management to local communities in the region." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Policy Volatility, Devolution, Communities, Governance, Rural population., Decentralization, Natural resource management, Land allocation, Land use, Greater Kordofan, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:721&r=dev |
| By: | Thurlow, James; Kiringai, Jane; Gautam, Madhur |
| Abstract: | "Kenya's economy is relatively diverse, with both agricultural and industrial potential. However, the economy has performed poorly over the last decade, and poverty and inequality have risen. This paper examines the impact of alternative growth paths and rural investments on poverty using an economy-wide model. It finds that if Kenya continues along its current growth path, its economy will have to grow by more than 10 percent per year over the coming decade to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015. Therefore, Kenya must search for alternative sources of poverty-reducing growth. The results of the model indicate that poverty is unlikely to decline significantly without an acceleration of agricultural growth. Growth in agriculture is found to benefit both urban and rural households, whereas industry-led growth benefits a smaller segment of the urban population, thus exacerbating inequality. Kenya's current Economic Recovery Strategy, however, is not optimistic about agriculture's growth potential, focusing more heavily on industry-led growth. Therefore, as Kenya prepares its new national strategy, the country should place greater emphasis on and direct resources toward accelerating agricultural growth. In assessing the impact of rural investments on growth and poverty, the paper finds that increasing agricultural spending to meet the 10 percent target set by the Maputo Declaration would lift an additional 1.5 million people above the poverty line by 2015. Specific agricultural investments have higher returns in different parts of the country, however. Irrigation favors the lowlands and the poorest segment of the population, while research and extension (R&E) favors the midlands and highlands. Investment in R&E is also found to have the highest returns in both growth and poverty reduction. However, increasing agricultural spending to 10 percent of total spending is insufficient to meet either the MDG or the 6 percent agricultural growth target of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program, which Kenya has recently adopted. . Achieving this target requires nonagricultural investments, such as in roads and market development. Building rural roads and reducing agricultural transaction costs significantly reduces poverty and encourages growth beyond rural areas. While it is necessary to increase spending on agriculture, the fiscal burden of an agricultural strategy can be greatly reduced by improving investment efficiency." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Rural investment, Public investment, Poverty reduction, Inequality, Pro-poor growth, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:723&r=dev |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Nkonya, Ephraim; Okecho, Geresom; Pender, John; Nahdy, Silim; Mugarura, Samuel; Kayobyo, Godfrey |
| Abstract: | "The National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) program of Uganda is an innovative public-private extension service delivery approach, with the goal of increasing market oriented agricultural production by empowering farmers to demand and control agricultural advisory services. Although initial evaluations of NAADS have been quite favourable, these evaluations have been primary qualitative in nature. This study quantifies the initial impacts of NAADS in the districts and sub-counties where the program was operating by 2005. It is based on descriptive analyses of results of a survey of 116 farmer groups and 894 farmers in sixteen districts where the program was operating at the time and four districts where NAADS had not yet begun operating to control for factors that may have contributed to differing initial conditions among the communities. Based on observed differences across the NAADS and non-NAADS sub-counties, it appears that the NAADS program is having substantial positive impacts on the availability and quality of advisory services provided to farmers, promoting adoption of new crop and livestock enterprises as well improving adoption and use of modern agricultural production technologies and practices. NAADS also appears to have promoted greater use of post-harvest technologies and commercial marketing of commodities, consistent with its mission to promote more commercially-oriented agriculture. Despite positive effects of NAADS on adoption of improved production technologies and practices, no significant differences were found in yield growth between NAADS and non-NAADS sub-counties for most crops, reflecting the still low levels of adoption of these technologies even in NAADS sub-counties, as well as other factors affecting productivity. However, NAADS appears to have helped farmers to avoid the large declines in farm income that affected most farmers between 2000 and 2004, due more to encouraging farmers to diversify into profitable new farming enterprises such as groundnuts, maize and rice than to increases in productivity caused by NAADS. NAADS appears to be having more success in promoting adoption of improved varieties of crops and some other yield enhancing technologies than in promoting improved soil fertility management. This raises concern about the sustainability of productivity increases that may occur, since such increases may lead to more rapid soil nutrient mining unless comparable success in promoting improved soil fertility management is achieved. Continued emphasis on improving the market environment, promoting adoption of more remunerative crop enterprises, and applied agronomic research identifying more effective ways to profitably combine inorganic and organic soil fertility measures in different crop systems can help to address this problem. Shortage of capital and credit facilities was often cited by farmers as a critical constraint facing them, in addition to scarcity of agricultural inputs, lack of adequate farmland, unfavorable weather patterns and problems of pests and diseases. These emphasize that the quality of advisory services is not the only important factor influencing technology adoption and productivity, and the need for complementary progress in other areas, especially development of the rural financial system. Implications are drawn for enterprise targeting and ensuring sustainability of improvements in productivity, as well as for designing and implementing service provision programs in other parts of the Uganda and in other countries." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Impact assessment, Agricultural extension, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:724&r=dev |
| By: | Birol, Ekin; Villalba, Eric Rayn; Smale, Melinda |
| Abstract: | "Maize, the second most globally important staple crop after wheat, originated in Mexico, where it is typically grown as part of a set of associated crops and practices called the milpa system. This ancient mode of production is practiced today in ways that vary by cultural context and agro-environment. Milpas generate private economic value, in terms of food security, diet quality and livelihoods, for the two-million farm households who manage them. Furthermore, milpas generate public economic value by conserving agrobiodiversity, especially that of maize landraces, which have the potential to contribute unique traits needed by plant breeders for future crop improvement. In this way, milpas contribute to global food security in maize. However, the sustainability of the milpa system has been threatened by off-farm employment opportunities, long-distance migration, the increasing commercialization and intensification of maize production. Most recently, the milpa system has been negatively impacted by the contamination of maize landraces by genetically modified (GM) maize, cultivation of which is currently prohibited in Mexico. Here, we employ a choice experiment to estimate Mexican farmers' valuation of three components of agrobiodiversity (crop species richness, maize variety richness and maize landraces), and examine their interest in cultivating GM maize. Choice experiment data, household level social, economic and demographic data, community level economic development data, and information on milpa production characteristics, and farmers' attitudes and perceptions with regards to GM food and crops were collected from 420 farm households across 17 communities in three states of Mexico. Using these data, we analyzed the heterogeneity of farmer preferences using a latent class model, which can be used to simultaneously identify sample segments having homogenous preferences for milpa attributes, as well as farmer characteristics affecting preferences. We further identified the characteristics of farmers who are most likely to continue growing maize landraces and managing milpa systems, as well as those least likely to accept GM maize. Specifically, we identified three distinct segments of farmers: (i) Landrace Conservationists derive the highest private economic value from continued management of landraces and the highest economic loss from the possible adoption of GM maize. These farmers are young, dislike GM foods and crops, and are mainly located at the Oaxaca site, where transgenic constructs have been found in maize landraces. (ii) Milpa Diversity Managers derive the highest economic value from managing all of the agrobiodiversity components of the milpa, and suffer fewer losses from management of GM maize. These are older farmers, who are curious and like to experiment with maize varieties. (iii) Marginalized Maize Producers derive little value from crop species and maize variety richness, receive minimal value from maize landraces, and also experience the smallest negative impact from the adoption of GM maize. These farmers are located in the most isolated communities, have the lowest level of productivity, and oversee the largest milpa areas. They are also the most tightly integrated into the maize output markets. These novel findings have implications for debates concerning the adoption of GM maize in Mexico and its associated costs and benefits, as well as for the design of targeted, cost-effective conservation programs on farms." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | maize, Genetically modified crops, Conservation, Small farmers, Biodiversity, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:726&r=dev |
| By: | Akita, Takahiro; Miyata, Sachiko |
| Abstract: | "This paper considers urban-rural location and education as the main causes of expenditure inequality and attempts to examine inequality changes associated with urbanization and educational expansion in Indonesia from 1996 to 2002, using Indonesian monthly household consumption expenditure data. It introduces a hierarchical framework of inequality decomposition by population subgroups, which enables researchers to analyze inequality resulting from differences in educational attainment as well as inequality within each educational group, after the effects on inequality of urban–rural differences in the composition of educational attainments are removed. It finds that the urban sector's higher educational group contributes significantly to overall inequality. Inequality within the group increased significantly once Indonesia recovered from the financial crisis of 1998. This, together with educational expansion in urban areas, led to a conspicuous rise in urban inequality. Overall expenditure inequality has increased markedly, due not only to the rise in urban inequality but also a widening urban-rural disparity, accompanied by a population shift from the rural to the urban sector. Since more people will obtain higher education as the economy continues to develop, and more jobs requiring specialized skills become available in urban areas, urban inequality is likely to remain high. In order to mitigate urban inequality and thus overall inequality, the government needs to introduce policies that could reduce inequality among households whose heads have a tertiary education." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Expenditure inequality, Urbanization, Educational expansion, Theil index, Two-stage nested inequality decomposition analysis, Public investment, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:728&r=dev |
| By: | Harizi, Khalid El; Klemick, Heather |
| Abstract: | "Parallel to the growing attention being devoted to the relationship between empowerment and development, an increasing number of tools are being developed to measure empowerment and determine the link between these two phenomena. This paper details the methodological processes used to construct, test and possibly refine one such instrument, the Community Capability Index, an innovative tool to measure community capabilities in the domain of natural resource governance. Empirical reference is made to research conducted in 85 villages in North and South Kordofan, Sudan. Following this, the paper presents findings from analyses of the determinants of community capabilities, including geographic, economic, and institutional variables. The results suggest that in Kordofan a number of factors influence capabilities. Possessing a village market, proximity to the nearest town, and access to credit are economic variables that have a significant and highly positive effect on community capabilities. Regarding the environment, capabilities are found to be greater where there is more rainfall, but access to groundwater from lower-quality aquifers and cracking clay soils have negative impacts on capabilities. War shocks, as might be expected, have a negative and significant effect. Particularly interesting is the generally weak correlation found between capabilities and wealth, along with strong correlations between institutional and social dimensions of community capabilities and participation in donor-funded projects. This combination suggests that development interventions must take into account the non-identity of poverty reduction and empowerment processes, at least when the targeted agents are communities rather than individuals or households. The findings reveal areas for further investigation into the relationship between the determinants and dimensions of capabilities, and the potential significance of the relationship for some dimensions suggests context-specific interventions to strengthen the relevant capabilities." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Capabilities, Community Capabilities Index, Empowerment, methodologies, Social capital, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:730&r=dev |
| By: | Zhang, Xiaobo; Rockmore, Marc; Chamberlin, Jordan |
| Abstract: | "This paper considers vulnerability reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from a more aggregated macro viewpoint. We focus on risk related to agriculture, since vulnerability and agriculture are intimately linked in SSA due to the location of the poor, their dependence on agriculture and the inherent risks of an agricultural livelihood. We argue that agricultural growth is one of the most effective means for improving permanent incomes and reducing vulnerability. However, agriculture is not homogeneous, and the inherent risks vary across countries and regions. Therefore, we also discuss appropriate investment strategies and policy instruments for different sets of risks." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Vulnerability, Typology, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:734&r=dev |
| By: | Davis, Kristin; Ekboir, Javier; Mekasha, Wendmsyamregne; Ochieng, Cosmas M.O.; Spielman, David J.; Zerfu, Elias |
| Abstract: | "This paper examines the role of postsecondary agricultural education and training (AET) in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of the region's agricultural innovation systems. Specifically, the paper looks at how AET in Sub-Saharan Africa can contribute to agricultural development by strengthening innovative capabilities, or the ability to introduce new products and processes that are socially or economically relevant to smallholder farmers and other agents in the agricultural sector. Using AET in Ethiopia and Mozambique as case studies, the paper argues that while AET is conventionally viewed in terms of its role in building human and scientific capital, it also has a vital role to play in building the capacity of organizations and individuals to transmit and adapt new applications of existing information, new products and processes, and new organizational cultures and behaviors. The paper emphasizes the importance of improving AET systems by strengthening the innovative capabilities of AET organizations and professionals; changing organizational cultures, behaviors, and incentives; and building innovation networks and linkages. The paper draws on two main sources of information: the emerging literature on innovation systems in developing-country agriculture, and data gathered from secondary sources and semi-structured key informant interviews conducted in Ethiopia and Mozambique in late 2006. The paper offers several recommendations that can contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of AET's contribution to agricultural innovation and development. Key reforms include aligning the mandates of AET organizations with national development aspirations by promoting new educational programs that are more strategically attuned to the different needs of society; inducing change in the cultures of AET organizations through the introduction of educational programs and linkages beyond the formal AET system; and strengthening individual and organizational capacity by improving incentives to forge stronger linkages between AET and diverse user communities, knowledge sources, and private industry." - from authors' abstract. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural education and training, Innovation systems, Sub-Saharan Africa, case studies, Small farmers, agricultural sector, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:736&r=dev |
| By: | Ueyama, Mika |
| Abstract: | "With poverty studies having shifted their focus from household poverty to individual poverty, a number of studies have started to examine intrahousehold resource allocation, especially gender bias within the household as potential causes of poverty. The literature has highlighted the existence of gender inequalities in South Asia, attributed to strong preferences for male offspring stemming from cultural and traditional customs. Only a few studies focused on the regional difference in the extent of gender bias and its response to income growth. To fill a void in previous studies, this study analyzes regional differences in gender discrimination, taking into account time-series variations. Furthermore, we test whether economic factors are responsible for gender bias in child mortality. There are two main objectives in this study. First, through a comprehensive literature review and a careful treatment of data compilation, regional features and recent trends in gender bias in children's health outcomes are updated. We find strong evidence of severe disparity in child health against girls in South Asia; in contrast, no such anti-female gender bias exists in Sub-Saharan Africa. Second, this paper empirically tests the relationship between gender biases in child mortality and income growth using carefully-compiled new country-level panel data, paying attention to the possibility that such relationship differs between regions and changes over time. To investigate the relationship, two types of data sets are used: (1) new cross-country panel data of childhood mortality rates by sex, collected from various sources of macro statistics, such as DHS stat and WHO statistics; and (2) our own estimates for age-specific child mortality rates of children, constructed from the retrospective information on birth and death histories included in micro data of each round of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). The empirical result suggests that income growth is correlated with the reduction of the anti-female bias in childhood mortality in most regions of the developing world—including South Asia. This result is reasonable, since income growth leads to an increase in nutrition intake (food consumption) and in health related inputs. In sharp contrast, the regression result does not show any significant correlation between gender biases in child health outcomes and income growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. While previous studies focused on the severe gender bias in South Asia, this study examined the correlation between income growth and gender bias and found a new dimension of regional contrast between Sub-Saharan Africa and other regions." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Gender bias, Intrahousehold resource allocation, Childhood mortality, Sub-Saharan Africa, Developing countries, Poverty reduction, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:739&r=dev |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi; Chowdhury, Shyamal; Dewina, Reno |
| Abstract: | "This paper examines dynamics in public good accessibility and cross-community inequality in Indonesia, using village-level panel data from 2000 to 2006 from their decentralized public-good allocation system. The introduction of decentralization makes public-good investment dependent on initial local income and endowment, and makes it difficult to coordinate investment decisions across communities. Our analysis also shows that possible strategic interactions among communities connected with transportation infrastructure (externalities) implies spatial divergence. Empirical evidence on education and heath facilities, however, demonstrates that during the decentralized period, (1) accessibility to school has improved and school investments were effectively coordinated over space; (2) hospital access has improved only marginally; but (3) per-capita availability of schools and local medical clinics (puskesmas) in the community shows convergence toward low-level equilibria. Despite the coordination in spatial allocation even in the decentralization period (observed in intervillage accessibility), endogenous population mobility and growth partially cancel the benefits of the coordinated efforts in public-good allocation. This point requires further policy attention." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Public goods, Education, health, Spatial coordination, Poverty dynamics, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:741&r=dev |
| By: | Miyata, Sachiko; Minot, Nicholas; Hu, Dinghuan |
| Abstract: | "Contract farming is seen by proponents as a way to raise small-farm income by delivering technology and market information to small farmers, incorporating them into remunerative new markets. Critics, however, see it as a strategy for agribusiness firms to pass production risk to farmers, taking advantage of an unequal bargaining relationship. There is also concern that contract farming will worsen rural income inequality by favoring larger farmers. This study examines these issues in Shandong Province, China, using survey data collected from 162 apple and green onion farmers and interviews with four contracting firms in 2005. Using a probit model to estimate participation in a contract-farming scheme, we find little evidence that contracting firms prefer to work with larger farmers, though all farms in the area are quite small. Furthermore, using a Heckman selection-correction model to control for possible selection bias, we find that contract farmers earn significantly more than independent farmers after controlling for household labor availability, education, farm size, and other characteristics. Finally, we find that the way contracting contributes to farm income varies between commodities: contract apple growers benefit from higher yields (presumably due to technical assistance), while contract green onion growers receive higher prices (presumably due to better quality). These results suggest that contract farming can help small farmers raise their incomes and gain access to the growing urban and export markets. Questions remain regarding the number of farmers that are, or could be, brought into similar contract arrangements." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Contract farming, Horticulture, exports, Small farmers, Supermarkets, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:742&r=dev |
| By: | Morley, Samuel; Nakasone, Eduardo; Pineiro, Valeria |
| Abstract: | "In this paper we develop a dynamic CGE model to examine the impact of CAFTA on production, employment and poverty in El Salvador. We model four aspects of the agreement: tariff reductions, quotas, changes in the rules of origin for maquila and more generous treatment of foreign investment. The model shows that CAFTA has a small positive effect on growth, employment and poverty. Tariff reduction under CAFTA adds about .2% to the growth rate of output up to 2020. Liberalizing the rules of origin for maquila has a bigger positive effect on growth and poverty mainly because it raises the demand for exportables produced by unskilled labor. We model the foreign investment effect by assuming that capital inflows go directly to capital formation. This raises the growth rate of output by over 1% per year and lowers poverty incidence in 2020 by over 25% relative to what it would be in the baseline scenario. These simulations say something important about the growth process in a country like El Salvador in which it seems reasonable to assume that there is idle unskilled labor willing and able to work at a fixed real wage. In such an economy, growth can be increased in one of three ways. First, already employed resources can be moved to sectors where they are more productive. That is what the tariff reductions under CAFTA do, and the result is positive but small. Second, the structure of demand can be changed in such a way as to increase the demand for previously unemployed unskilled labor. That is what the maquila simulation does, because maquila uses a lot of unskilled labor relative to skilled labor and capital. Finally the supply of capital can be increased by increasing the rate of capital formation. That is what happens in the FDI simulation." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | CAFTA, Trade agreements, Growth, Poverty, CGE model, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:743&r=dev |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; You, Liangzhi |
| Abstract: | "The Ugandan coffee industry is facing some serious challenges, including low international prices in the international coffee market, aging coffee trees and declining productivity, and, more recently, the appearance of coffee-wilt disease, which have all contributed to the decline in both the quantity and value of coffee exports. The government of Uganda, through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), in 1993/94 started a coffee-replanting program to both replace coffee trees that were old or affected by coffee-wilt and expand coffee production into other suitable areas in northern and eastern Uganda. This program seems to be helping to both combat the industry's problems and reverse the declining trends. However, the UCDA announced in 2004 that it was withdrawing from the replanting program in the 2004/05 season (it had supported nursery operators and purchased and distributed free seedlings to farmers), so the program's achievements may not last. This paper estimates the economic returns (benefit–cost ratio) of the coffee-replanting program, particularly replanting with clonal varieties, and analyzes the welfare implications of the decision to withdraw. We find that the internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit–cost ratio are very high, about 50 percent and 3.7 respectively, suggesting that the replanting program in Uganda is very beneficial to the livelihoods of coffee farmers, the coffee sub-sector, and the economy as a whole. The largest benefits occur in the central region, where the bulk of coffee is grown, followed by the eastern and western regions. The largest return on investment occurs in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Sensitivity analyses show that the results (that is, the net benefits) are robust with respect to the assumptions made, including demand and supply elasticities and level of domestic consumption. Although the results are sensitive to farm production costs and coffee yields, the program still improves welfare. Taken all together, the results suggest that if the government withdraws from the replanting program without putting place adequate alternative measures to ensure the program's sustainability, welfare will be severely reduced in coffee-growing areas." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Clonal coffee, Benefit-cost analysis, IRR, DREAM, Agricultural research, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:744&r=dev |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | "Today's resource boom in Africa, driven by Asian economic growth, offers new opportunities for resource-rich African countries. Contrary to the experience of previous booms, however, most mining profits now accrue to foreign companies, leaving little room for governments to use revenues for pro-poor investments or to mitigate adverse distributional impacts. Taking Zambia as a case study, this paper shows that despite privatization, Dutch disease remains a valid concern and may hamper economic diversification, worsen income distribution, and undermine poverty reduction strategies. Mining royalties must, therefore, be increased and used to finance growth-inducing investments that encourage pro-poor economic diversification, else many African countries will remain caught in a resource trap." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Dutch disease, Resource booms, Privatization, Income distribution, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:747&r=dev |
| By: | Morley, Samuel; Nakasone, Eduardo; Pineiro, Valeria |
| Abstract: | "In this paper we develop a dynamic CGE model to examine the impact of CAFTA on production, employment and poverty in Honduras. We model four aspects of the agreement: tariff reductions, quotas, changes in the rules of origin for maquila and more generous treatment of foreign investment. We first show that trade liberalization under CAFTA has a positive effect on growth, employment and poverty but the effect is small. What really matters for Honduras is the assembly (maquila) industry. CAFTA liberalized the rules of origin for imports into this industry. That raises the growth rate of output by 1.4% and reduces poverty by 11% in 2020 relative to what it would otherwise have been. Increasing capital formation through an increase in foreign investment in response to CAFTA has an even larger impact on growth, employment and poverty. These simulations say something important about the growth process in a country like Honduras in which it seems reasonable to assume that there is underemployed, unskilled labor willing and able to work more at a fixed real wage. In such an economy changing the structure of demand in favor of sectors that use a lot of unskilled labor will have a big impact on growth. That is what the maquila simulation does, because maquila uses a lot of unskilled labor relative to skilled labor and capital. Alternatively the supply of capital can be increased by increasing the rate of capital formation. Either of these two has a far larger impact on growth and poverty than tariff reductions alone." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | CAFTA, Growth, Poverty, CGE model, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:748&r=dev |
| By: | Diakité, Lamissa; Sidibé, Amadou; Smale, Melinda; Grum, Mikkel |
| Abstract: | "This paper reviews the structure and performance of the sorghum and millet seed sector in Mali. The Sahel is the origin of pearl millet and sorghum, seed selection and management of these crops is embedded in local cultures, and most producers of these crops are subsistence oriented. Despite seed sector reform, no certified seed of these crops is sold in local markets and farmers prefer to rely on themselves or each other for seed. The dominant source of certified seed is the national seed service. Certified seed is multiplied by contracted farmers and seed producer groups, and supplied to farmers through farmers' associations, development organizations, and extension services. The informal sector supplies farmers with non-certified seed directly and indirectly through village grain markets. There is no consensus about whether it is lack of effective demand or supply that constrains farmer use of certified sorghum and millet seed, but researchers generally conclude that the process of certifying seed is too lengthy, some mechanism must be established for production and trade of locally-adapted landraces, and Mali's highly structured farmers' associations could play an even stronger role in testing and promoting demand for certified seed. Recommendations have included the use of small packs and seed auctions where market infrastructure is sparse, and in more commercialized areas, involvement of agro-input dealers, shopkeepers and traders. Still, estimated adoption rates for improved millet (under 10 percent of crop area) and sorghum seed (under 20 percent of crop area) could be as high as can be expected in this challenging natural environment and institutional context." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Seeds, Formal sector, Informal sector, Millet, Sorghum, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:749&r=dev |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Thurlow, James; Yu, Bingxin; Kolavalli, Shashidhara |
| Abstract: | "Ghana is an emerging success story in Africa and in a couple of years will become the first African country to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving its national poverty rate. The government of Ghana has therefore extended its development vision and recently declared the goal of reaching middle-income-country (MIC) status by 2015. To analyze possible pathways and implications of achieving MIC status, this paper examines other countries' experiences on their way to becoming MICs and emphasizes the important role of growth acceleration, export diversification, and economic structural change in the transformation process. The paper further analyzes Ghana's growth options and their structural implications using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model recently developed for Ghana. The results of the model simulation suggest that Ghana's annual GDP growth rate must accelerate from the recent 5.5 percent to 7.6 percent to achieve MIC status by 2015. Unlike in other countries, agriculture in Ghana is likely to remain the mainstay of growth and export earnings, while the role of manufacturing growth in achieving MIC status may be constrained by the manufacturing sector's dependency on agricultural inputs and small size. Services may not become the prime mover of accelerated growth, but improved efficiency in trade, transport, and business services will be a key for growth acceleration in other sectors." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Growth and development, Middle income country, Applied general equilibrium modeling, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:750&r=dev |
| By: | Petia Topalova |
| Abstract: | While many have celebrated India's accelerating economic growth, some have expressed concern about the distributional impacts of the growth process. Cognizant of the vulnerability of its large population below poverty, India's authorities have made faster and more inclusive economic growth the primary goal of their development strategy. This paper aims to document how the benefits of economic expansion were shared across the income distribution over the last two decades using disaggregate household level data. Experiences across Indian states suggest an important role for economic policy in shaping the inclusiveness of growth. States with higher financial development, more flexible labor markets, and higher average education experienced greater relative gains for the poor. Improving infrastructure may also lead to a growth process that is more inclusive of the poor. |
| Keywords: | Poverty , India , Economic growth , Income distribution , Labor markets , Poverty reduction , |
| Date: | 2008–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/54&r=dev |
| By: | Grimm, Michael (Institute of Social Studies); Klasen, Stephan (University of Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | There is a well-known debate about the roles of geography versus institutions in explaining the long-term development of countries. These debates have usually been based on cross-country regressions where questions about parameter heterogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogeneity cannot easily be controlled for. The innovation of Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001) was to address this last point by using settler mortality as an instrument for geography-induced endogenous institutions and found that this supported their line of reasoning. We believe there is value-added to consider this debate at the micro level within a country as particularly questions of parameter heterogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity are likely to be smaller than between countries. Moreover, at the micro level it is possible to identify more precise transmission mechanisms from geography via institutions to economic development outcomes. In particular, we examine the determinants of economic development across villages on the Indonesian Island of Sulawesi and find that geography-induced endogenous emergence of land rights is the critical institutional link between geographic conditions and technological change. We therefore highlight and empirically validate a new transmission channel from endogenously generated institutions on economic development. |
| Keywords: | geography, migration, land rights, institutions, technology adoption, agricultural development, Indonesia |
| JEL: | K11 O12 Q12 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3391&r=dev |
| By: | Niimi, Yoko (World Bank); Ozden, Caglar (World Bank); Schiff, Maurice (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | It has been argued that the brain drain’s negative impact may be offset by the higher remittance levels skilled migrants send home. This paper examines whether remittances actually increase with migrants’ education level. The determinants of remittances it considers include migration levels or rates, migrants’ education level, and source countries’ income, financial sector development and expected growth rate. The estimation takes potential endogeneity into account, an issue not considered in the few studies on this topic. Our main finding is that remittances decrease with the share of migrants with tertiary education. This provides an additional reason for which source countries would prefer unskilled to skilled labor migration. Moreover, as predicted by our model, remittances increase with source countries’ level and rate of migration, financial sector development and population, and decrease with these countries’ income and expected growth rate. |
| Keywords: | migration, remittances, education level, brain drain |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J61 O15 O16 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3393&r=dev |
| By: | Ahsan, Ahmad (World Bank); Pagés, Carmen (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Using manufacturing data for India, this paper studies the economic effects of legal amendments on two types of labor laws: employment protection and labor dispute resolution legislation. We find that laws that increase employment protection or the cost of labor disputes substantially reduce registered sector employment and output. These laws do no seem to benefit workers either, as they do not increase the share of value added that goes to labor. Labor-intensive industries, such as textiles, are the hardest hit by amendments that increase employment protection while capital-intensive industries are the most affected by laws that increase the cost of labor dispute resolution. These adverse effects are not alleviated by the widespread and increasing use of contract labor, particularly in regards to employment. Results are robust to an alternative codification of legal amendments suggested by Bhattacharjea (2006). |
| Keywords: | employment protection, labor dispute resolution, contract labor, employment, India |
| JEL: | J23 J52 K31 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3394&r=dev |
| By: | Beine, Michel (University of Luxembourg); Docquier, Frédéric (Catholic University of Louvain); Schiff, Maurice (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between the brain drain and country size, as well as the extent of small states’ overall loss of human capital. We find that small states are the main losers because they i) lose a larger proportion of their skilled labor force and ii) exhibit stronger reactions to standard push factors. We also observe that the correlation between human capital indicators and country size is close to zero. This suggests that small states are more successful in producing skilled natives and less successful in retaining them. |
| Keywords: | brain drain, small states, human capital, openness |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3398&r=dev |
| By: | Peter Nunnenkamp; Janina Weingarth; Johannes Weisser |
| Abstract: | Being closer to the poor, NGOs are widely believed to provide better targeted aid than state agencies. But empirical evidence is largely lacking. We contribute to closing this gap by drawing on an exceptionally detailed Swiss database that covers different forms of NGO aid and several official aid benchmarks. The differentiated Tobit estimations account for both altruistic and selfish aid motivations. It turns out that it depends on the source of NGO funding as well as the choice of the official benchmark whether or not NGOs provide better targeted aid. In contrast to widespread belief, however, the allocation of self-financed NGO aid reveals striking similarities to the allocation of official Swiss development aid. |
| Keywords: | NGO aid; Official aid; Aid allocation; Tobit models |
| JEL: | F35 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1405&r=dev |
| By: | Dirk-Jan Koch; Axel Dreher; Peter Nunnenkamp; Rainer Thiele |
| Abstract: | NGOs play an important role in international development cooperation, but the allocation of NGO aid has rarely been mapped, let alone explained. Based on a representative dataset for 61 important NGOs from various OECD countries, we analyze the targeting of NGO aid across a large number of recipient countries by jointly considering major determinants of NGO aid in a multivariate regression framework. While our results show that NGOs are more active in the neediest countries, we reject the hypothesis that NGOs complement official aid through engaging in so-called difficult institutional environments. Rather, they tend to replicate the location choices of official “backdonors.” Moreover, NGOs follow other NGOs so that aid gets clustered. Finally, NGOs select recipient countries with common traits related to religion or colonial history. Taken together, our findings suggest that NGOs keep a low profile rather than distinguishing themselves from other donors and trying to excel under risky conditions |
| Keywords: | aid allocation, aid agencies, non-governmental organizations, poverty |
| JEL: | F35 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1406&r=dev |
| By: | Stephen G Hall; Qian Guo |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the relevance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect to the determination of regional inflation in China, for the period 1985 – 2000. To do this, we first construct annual measures of Chinese inflation and industry input on regional and sectoral basis. Then we generalize the Asea and Mendoza (1994) settings to consider asymmetric productivity shocks across sectors. Testing this model on Chinese Regional Data aid of non-stationary panel data techniques, it shows that our extended theoretical model is a good empirical representation of the Chinese data which supports the Balassa- Samuelson effect. Moreover, we are able to test the Asea and Mendoza (1994) version of our general model and find that the restrictions are rejected. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:08/8&r=dev |
| By: | Yao Li; John Whalley; Shunming Zhang; Xiliang Zhao |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the major transformation of higher education that has been underway in China since 1999 and evaluates its potential global impacts. Reflecting China's commitment to continued high growth through quality upgrading and the production of ideas and intellectual property as set out in both the 10th (2001-2005) and 11th (2006-2010) five-year plans, this transformation focuses on major new resource commitments to tertiary education and also embodies significant changes in organizational form. This focus on tertiary education differentiates the Chinese case from other countries who earlier at similar stages of development instead stressed primary and secondary education. The number of undergraduate and graduate students in China has been grown at approximately 30% per year since 1999, and the number of graduates at all levels of higher education in China has approximately quadrupled in the last 6 years. The size of entering classes of new students and total student enrollments have risen even faster, and have approximately quintupled. Prior to 1999 increases in these areas were much smaller. Much of the increased spending is focused on elite universities, and new academic contracts differ sharply from earlier ones with no tenure and annual publication quotas often used. All of these changes have already had large impacts on China's higher educational system and are beginning to be felt by the wider global educational structure. We suggest that even more major impacts will follow in the years to come and there are implications for global trade both directly in ideas, and in idea derived products. These changes, for now, seem relatively poorly documented in literature. |
| JEL: | I2 I23 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13849&r=dev |
| By: | Lee Alston; Shannan Mattiace; Tomas Nonnenmacher |
| Abstract: | While most contemporary historians agree that the use of debt peonage as a coercive labor contract in Mexico was not widespread, scholars still concur that it was important and pervasive in Yucatan state during the henequen boom of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The henequen boom concurred with the long rule of Porfirio DÃaz (1876-1910), under whose watch property rights were reallocated through land laws, and Mexico’s economy became much more closely tied to the United States. In the Yucatan, the accumulation of debts by peons rose as hacendados sought to attract and bond workers to match the rising U.S. demand for twine. We examine the institutional setting in which debt operated and analyze the specific functions of debt: who got it, what form it took, and why it varied across workers. We stress the formal and informal institutional contexts within which hacendados and workers negotiated contracts. |
| JEL: | J33 N16 N36 N56 O54 Q15 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13852&r=dev |
| By: | Adriana Kugler; Maurice Kugler |
| Abstract: | We use a panel of manufacturing plants from Colombia to analyze how the rise in payroll tax rates over the 1980s and 1990s affected the labor market. Our estimates indicate that formal wages fall by between 1.4% and 2.3% as a result of a 10% rise in payroll taxes. This "less-than-full-shifting" is likely to be the result of weak linkages between benefits and taxes and the presence of downward wage rigidities in Colombia. Because the costs of taxation are only partly shifted from employers to employees, employment also falls. Our results indicate that a 10% increase in payroll taxes lowered formal employment by between 4% and 5%. In addition, we find some evidence of less shifting and larger disemployment effects for production than for non-production workers. These results suggest that policies aimed at boosting the relative demand of less-skill workers by reducing social security taxes may be effective in Latin American countries, where minimum wages bind and benefits are often not directly linked to contributions. |
| JEL: | H2 J3 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13855&r=dev |
| By: | Judith M. Dean; Mary E. Lovely |
| Abstract: | Trade growth for a relatively poor country is thought to shift the composition of industrial output towards dirtier products, aggravating environmental damage. China's rapidly growing trade and serious environmental degradation appear to be no exception. However, much of China's trade growth is attributable to the international fragmentation of production. This kind of trade could be cleaner, if fragmented production occurs in cleaner goods, or if China specializes in cleaner stages of production within these goods. Using Chinese official environmental data on air and water pollution, and official trade data, we present evidence that (1) China's industrial output has become cleaner over time, (2) China's exports have shifted toward relatively cleaner, highly fragmented sectors, and (3) the pollution intensity of Chinese exports has fallen dramatically between 1995 and 2004. We then explore the role of fragmentation and FDI in this trend toward cleaner trade. Beginning with a standard model of the pollution intensity of trade, we develop a model that explicitly introduces production fragmentation into the export sector. We then estimate this model using pooled data on four pollutants over ten years. Econometric results support the view that increased FDI and production fragmentation have contributed positively to the decline in the pollution intensity of China's trade, as has accession to the WTO and lower tariff rates. |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F18 F2 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13860&r=dev |
| By: | Felipe Barrera-Osorio; Marianne Bertrand; Leigh L. Linden; Francisco Perez-Calle |
| Abstract: | We evaluate multiple variants of a commonly used intervention to boost education in developing countries -- the conditional cash transfer (CCT) -- with a student level randomization that allows us to generate intra-family and peer-network variation. We test three treatments: a basic CCT treatment based on school attendance, a savings treatment that postpones a bulk of the cash transfer due to good attendance to just before children have to reenroll, and a tertiary treatment where some of the transfers are conditional on students' graduation and tertiary enrollment rather than attendance. On average, the combined incentives increase attendance, pass rates, enrollment, graduation rates, and matriculation to tertiary institutions. Changing the timing of the payments does not change attendance rates relative to the basic treatment but does significantly increase enrollment rates at both the secondary and tertiary levels. Incentives for graduation and matriculation are particularly effective, increasing attendance and enrollment at secondary and tertiary levels more than the basic treatment. We find some evidence that the subsidies can cause a reallocation of responsibilities within the household. Siblings (particularly sisters) of treated students work more and attend school less than students in families that received no treatment. We also find that indirect peer influences are relatively strong in attendance decisions with the average magnitude similar to that of the direct effect. |
| JEL: | I2 I38 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13890&r=dev |
| By: | Richard Herd; Willi Leibfritz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines varies areas of India´s fiscal policy, in particular fiscal discipline, the structure of government spending, the tax system and fiscal federalism. It describes reforms over the past decades which, as part of the overall economic reform agenda, helped lifting the Indian economy to a higher growth path. It also discusses where further reforms are desirable to further reduce economic distortions and improve the provision of public services. It finds that after high fiscal deficits have often been recorded during the past two decades, after the adoption of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act in 2003, fiscal discipline has significantly improved. As to government spending, it argues that, given the large share which is used to subsidise commercial undertakings, agriculture and food distribution, there is much room to improve the quality of spending and to target it better to improving infrastructure and reducing poverty. It describes the tax system which has undergone major reforms since the early 1990s. Nonetheless, there are still many exemptions and loopholes which suggest that a broadening of the tax bases would allow further reductions in tax rates and make the system simpler, fairer and more efficient. The paper also suggests that reforms of indirect taxes should focus on creating a common market within India so that goods can move between states without border controls. Finally, on fiscal federalism it finds that India's federal structure has led to a well-developed system of tax-sharing and transfers, both through constitutionally empowered bodies and delivered through the annual budget. While overall, India´s fiscal federalism has worked well moving resources towards the poorest states, it has become very complex and there are still some features which weaken fiscal discipline of the states. Furthermore, a major drawback is the lack of an effective local government system, most notably in rural areas and strengthening the local level would be important for improving accountability and responsiveness to citizens’ needs as three-quarters of the population live in states with over 50 million inhabitants. <P>La politique budgétaire en Inde : réformes passées et challenges pour l’avenir <BR>Nous examinons dans ce document différents aspects de la politique budgétaire indienne, notamment la discipline budgétaire, la structure des dépenses publiques, le système fiscal et le fédéralisme budgétaire. Nous décrivons les réformes mises en oeuvre au cours des dernières décennies, qui, dans le cadre du programme global de réformes économiques, ont contribué à rehausser la trajectoire de croissance de l'économie indienne. Nous nous demandons également si de nouvelles réformes sont souhaitables pour réduire encore certaines distorsions économiques, et améliorer la prestation des services publics. Nous parvenons à la conclusion qu'après deux décennies fréquemment marquées par de volumineux déficits budgétaires, la discipline budgétaire s'est sensiblement améliorée à la suite de l'adoption de la Loi de responsabilité et de gestion budgétaires de 2003. S'agissant des dépenses publiques, nous estimons que, dans la mesure où une grande partie des fonds est utilisée pour subventionner des entreprises commerciales, l'agriculture et la distribution de produits alimentaires, les autorités disposent de marges de manoeuvre considérables pour améliorer la qualité des dépenses et mieux les cibler, en vue d'améliorer les infrastructures et de faire reculer la pauvreté. Nous décrivons également le système fiscal, qui a fait l'objet de réformes de fond depuis le début des années 90. Il n'en demeure pas moins caractérisé par un grand nombre d'exonérations et de lacunes, ce qui laisse à penser qu'un élargissement de l'assiette des impôts permettrait de réduire davantage leur taux, tout en rendant le système fiscal plus simple, plus équitable et plus efficient. Nous estimons par ailleurs que les réformes des impôts indirects devraient être axées sur la création d'un marché commun en Inde, de manière que les biens puissent circuler entre les États de l'Union sans contrôle à leurs frontières. Enfin, s'agissant du fédéralisme budgétaire, nous parvenons à la conclusion que la structure fédérale de l'Inde a débouché sur un système étoffé de partage des recettes fiscales et de transferts, reposant sur des organismes constitutionnels ou s'inscrivant dans le cadre du budget annuel. Globalement, le fédéralisme budgétaire indien a bien fonctionné et permis de redistribuer des ressources aux États les plus démunis, mais il est devenu très complexe et présente encore des caractéristiques qui nuisent à la discipline budgétaire des États. En outre, un de ses inconvénients majeurs réside dans l'absence de système d'administration locale efficace, en particulier dans les zones rurales. À cet égard, il serait important de renforcer le niveau local d'administration pour responsabiliser davantage les autorités et les rendre plus attentives aux besoins des citoyens, dans la mesure où trois quarts de la population vivent dans des États de plus de 50 millions d'habitants. |
| Keywords: | taxation, fiscalité, fiscal policy, politique budgétaire, dépenses publiques, fiscal federalism, fédéralisme budgétaire, India, government spending |
| JEL: | H1 H2 H5 H6 H7 |
| Date: | 2008–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:595-en&r=dev |
| By: | Duffy, Neal; Ezemenari, Kene; Coulibaly, Kalamogo |
| Abstract: | Trade, financial, and exchange rate reforms are shown to have exerted a positive impact on the growth of total factor productivity in Rwanda during the period 1995-2003. Based on a constant returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function, this paper regresses total factor productivity on indices of trade, financial, and exchange rate reforms. The analysis determines that trade reforms and financial reforms each contributed positively to improvements in total factor productivity. The data also suggest that the allocation of official development assistance to human capital made a significant contribution to productivity. In contrast, the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the late 1980 ' s hindered productivity or the growth of TFP. Taken together, the findings for Rwanda presented in this paper show that the strong growth of the past decade has not just been due to a " bounce back " effect followi ng the genocide. The results support the notion that policies favorable to trade development, a deepening of the financial sector, and formation of human capital have been effective for increasing aggregate productivity of the economy and stimulating growth in Rwanda. For sustained growth, the Rwandan authorities should continue to build on these policies, while also taking care to maintain an appropriate exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4552&r=dev |
| By: | Wagstaff, Adam |
| Abstract: | Health systems are not just about improving health: good ones also ensure that people are protected from the financial consequences of receiving medical care. Anecdotal evidence suggests health systems often perform badly in this respect, apparently with devastating consequences for households, especially poor ones and near-poor ones. Two principal methods have been used to measure financial protection in health. Both relate a household ' s out-of-pocket spending to a threshold defined in terms of living standards in the absence of the spending: the first defines spending as catastrophic if it exceeds a certain percentage of the living standards measure; the second defines spending as impoverishing if it makes the difference between a household being above and below the poverty line. The paper provides an overview of the methods and issues arising in each case, and presents empirical work in the area of financial protection in health, including the impacts of government policy. The paper also reviews a recent critique of the methods used to measure financial protection. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring & Evaluation,Health Systems Development & Reform,Health Economics & Finance,,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4554&r=dev |
| By: | Wane, Waly; Dabalen, Andrew |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between gender and corruption in the health sector. It uses data collected directly from health workers, during a recent public expenditure tracking survey in Tajikistan ' s health sector. Using informal payments as an indicator of corruption, women seem at first significantly less corrupt than men as consistently suggested by the literature. However, once power conferred by position is controlled for, women appear in fact equally likely to take advantage of corruption opportunities as men. Female-headed facilities also are not less likely to experience informal charging than facilities managed by men. However, women are significantly less aggressive in the amount they extract from patients. The paper provides evidence that workers are more likely to engage in informal charging the farther they fall short of their perceived fair-wage, adding weight to the fair wage-corruption hypothesis. Finally, there is some evidence that health workers who feel that health care should be provided for a fee are more likely to informally charge patients. Contrary to informal charging, moonlighting behavior displays strong gender differences. Women are significantly less likely to work outside the facility on average and across types of health workers. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring & Evaluation,Gender and Health,Access to Finance,Health Law,Health Economics & Finance |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4555&r=dev |
| By: | Dudu, Hasan; Chumi, Sinqobile |
| Abstract: | Water policy is an important topic on the agenda of the international community, and efficiency and equity in the allocation of water have emerged as important factors to be considered. Water pricing can be used to mitigate both the quantity and quality dimensions of water scarcity. This paper reviews partial equilibrium models and general equilibrium models that are relevant to irrigation water management issu es. The most widely discussed issues in these models are water markets and water pricing. The interrelationships between economic, cultural, social, and political aspects that are related to water policy make it difficult to provide a comprehensive policy analysis. General equilibrium models of irrigation water management allow incorporation of both the irrigation sector and the other sectors in the economy and analysis of policies affecting each of them and the interaction between them. In addition to being able to address sector and household specifications, production factors, time horizon, pricing policies, and institutions such as water markets, general equilibrium models allow the analysis of the impact of water policies on equity and poverty alleviation. The authors conclude that, although there has been a significant increase in efforts to analyze water related problems, analytical and empirical research in the field is still deficient and more effort is needed to address them. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics & Policies,Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water Supply and Systems,Water Conservation |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4556&r=dev |
| By: | Amin, Mohammad |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an alternative way of testing the theory of legal origins, one based on a firm ' s perception of how helpful the government is for doing business. The author argues that an approach based on firm perceptions offers a number of advantages over existing studies. Specifically, the analysis demonstrates that heavier regulation in civil law compared with common law countries is not viewed by businesses as an efficient and socially desirable response to disorder. Further, the findings show a strong effect of legal tradition on government helpfulness even after controlling for various institutional measures known to be correlated with the legal tradition of countries. This suggests that there is more to legal tradition than what existing studies have unearthed. |
| Keywords: | National Governance,Legal Products,Public Sector Corruption & Anticorruption Measures,Governance Indicators,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4557&r=dev |
| By: | Gonzalez, Julio A.; Guasch, Jose Luis; Serebrisky, Tomas |
| Abstract: | Access to basic infrastructure services - roads, electricity, water, sanitation - and the efficient provision of the services, is a key challenge in the fight against poverty. Many of the poor (and particularly the extreme poor) in rural communities in Latin America live on average 5 kilometers or more from the nearest paved road, which is almost twice as far as non-poor rural households. There have been major improvements in access to water, sanitation, electricity, telecommunications, ports, and airports, but road coverage has not changed much, although some effort and resources have been invested to improve the quality of road networks. This paper focuses on the main determinants of logistics costs and physical access to services and, whenever possible, provides evidence of the effects of these determinants on competitiveness, growth, and poverty in Latin American economies. The analysis shows the impact of improving infrastructure and logistics costs on three fronts - macro (growth), micro (productivity at the firm level), and poverty (the earnings of poor/rural people). In addition, the paper provides recommendations and solutions that encompass a series of policies to reduce the prevalent high logistics costs and limited access to services in Latin America. The recommendations rely on applied economic analysis on logistics and trade facilitation. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy & Planning,Economic Theory & Research,E-Business,Banks & Banking Reform,Transport and Trade Logistics |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4558&r=dev |
| By: | Zhao, Longyue; Wang, Yan |
| Abstract: | In 2007, the United States Department of Commerce altered a 23-year old policy of not applying the countervailing duty law to non-market economies, and initiated eight countervailing and antidumping duty investigations on Chinese imports. The change brings heated debate on trade remedy policies and issues of non-market economies. This study focuses on the first countervailing duty case on imported coated free sheet paper from China and analyzes the implications of this test case for United States-China bilateral trade, and industrial policies in transitioning market economies. The paper also provides a brief review of the economics of subsidies, World Trade Organization rules on subsides and countervailing measures, and United States countervailing duty laws applied to non-market economies. While recently acceded countries should review their domestic development policies from the perspective of economic efficiency and comply with the World Trade Organization rules, it is also important to further clarify the issues of non-market economies under the multilateral trading system, and pay keen attention to the rules negotiations in the current World Trade Organization Doha Development Round. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Trade Law,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4560&r=dev |
| By: | Negri, Mariano; Porto, Guido G. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies nonmarket institutions that facilitate exports. In Malawi, as in many other developing countries, farmers face numerous constraints that disconnect them from export markets. The paper explores the role of a local institution, the burley tobacco clubs, in bridging smallholders to exports. Burley clubs potentially enable farmers to increase their tobacco farming productivity by providing services related to institutional access, collective action, economies of scale, and supporting network. Using matching methods and instrumental variable techniques, the authors find that tobacco club membership causes an increase of between 40-74 percent in output per acre and an increase of between 45-89 percent in tobacco sales per acre. Instead, neither the land share allocated to tobacco nor the unit value obtained by the producers is affected by club membership. |
| Keywords: | Tobacco Use and Control,Alcohol and Substance Abuse,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Adolescent Health,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4561&r=dev |
| By: | Abdeslam Marfouk (DULBEA-CERT, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the determinants of highly-skilled emigration from Africa with recent original data set on international migration. The analysis shows that 10 out of the 53 African countries have lost more than 35 per cent of the their tertiary educated labor force and countries such as Cape Verde (68 percent), Gambia (63 percent), Seychelles (56 percent), Maurice (56 percent) and Sierra Leone (53 percent) suffered from a massive brain drain. Regression models reveal that economic and noneconomic considerations have a strong impact on the African brain drain. This study finds that the degree of fractionalization (ethnic, linguistic and religious) at origin countries, jobs opportunities at destination countries, selective immigration policies, wage gap, geographical distance, former colonial links, and linguistic proximity between countries of origin and destination are the main forces driving highly-skilled emigration from Africa. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Human Capital, African Brain Drain, Labor Mobility |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dul:wpaper:08-07rs&r=dev |
| By: | Rocco Macchiavello |
| Abstract: | The industrial organization of developing countries is characterized by: i) pervasive use of subcontracting arrangements among small firms, ii) "missing middle" in the firm size distribution, and iii) financially constrained firms. This paper studies an incomplete contract model in which the integration decision is chosen to maximize the returns of two vertically related projects to an external investor. The model jointly determines the financing, size and organization of firms. Vertical integration trades-off the benefits of joint liability against the cost of rendering the supply chain more opaque from the point of view of investors. The model shows that vertical integration is more likely to arise for intermediate levels of investor protection and that better contract enforcement reduces vertical integration only if financial markets are sufficiently developed. Moreover, the firm size distribution is more likely to display a missing middle in industries which favor vertical integration. The model sheds light on the industrial organization of developing countries showing that the motives for vertical integration are not necessarily higher in those countries. |
| Keywords: | Vertical Integration, Missing Middle, Industrial Development, Financial Constraints, Joint Liability, Trade Credit, Community Based Idustries |
| JEL: | O12 O16 D23 G30 L22 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:373&r=dev |
| By: | Sai Ding; John Knight |
| Abstract: | China’s economy grew at an average annual real growth rate of 9 percent over the last three decades. Despite the vast empirical literature on testing the neoclassical model of economic growth using data on various groups of countries, very few cross-country regressions include China and none of them particularly focuses on the explanation of China’s remarkable economic growth. We attempt to fill this gap by utilizing panel data on 146 countries over the period 1980-2000 to examine the extent to which the growth difference between China and other countries can be explained by the augmented Solow model. The estimates are based on system GMM estimation which allows for unobserved country-specific effects, measurement error, and endogeneity problems of regressors. We find that, in spite of the restrictive assumptions involved, the Solow model augmented by both human capital and structural change provides a fairly good account of international variation in economic growth. In particular, physical capital investment, changes in the structure of employment, conditional convergence, and population growth are the main sources of the growth difference between China and many other countries. |
| Keywords: | China, Augmented Solow Model, Cross-Country Growth Regression |
| JEL: | O11 O47 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:380&r=dev |
| By: | John Knight; Ramani Gunatilaka |
| Abstract: | This research is among the first to link the literatures on migration and on subjective well-being in developing countries. It poses the question: why do rural-urban migrant households settled in urban China have an average happiness score lower than that of rural households? It examines the hypothesis that migrants have false expectations because they cannot foresee how their aspirations will adapt to their new situation, and draws on research on both psychology and sociology. Estimated happiness functions and decomposition analyses, based on a 2002 national household survey, suggest that their high aspirations in relation to achievement, influenced by their new reference groups, make for unhappiness. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Rural-Urban Migration, Subjective Well-Being, Happiness, Relative Deprivation, Aspirations, China |
| JEL: | I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:381&r=dev |
| By: | Alvar Kangur |
| Abstract: | During the past decade or so empirical literature on comparative development of nations has turned to investigation of "deep" or determinants of productivity and capital intensity, such as institutions, trade, geography and human capital. In this paper I revisit this debate and make three contributions. First, I review critically the main findings in the literature using all potentially endogenous determinants of comparative development. The findings suggest that in general the results are not robust to the use of measures of institutional quality and/or respective instruments, and might be misspecified. Second, I make a careful selection across all the instruments for all the deep determinants and argue that settler mortality proposed by Acemoglu et al. (2001) is not a dominant instrument for institutional quality and its potentially the most prone to fail to satisfy the exclusion restriction. Consequently I provide evidence that the theory of colonial origins is not institutional in its nature and rather supports human capital prevalence hypothesis. Third, I show that earlier studies have failed to account for substitutable roles between institutions and openness. In the final race, however, human capital and geography come out as winners with openness having at best indirect complementary effects. |
| Keywords: | Comparative Development, Institutions, Openness, Geography |
| JEL: | O11 O40 P51 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:386&r=dev |
| By: | Arellano, Cristina |
| Abstract: | Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because asset markets are incomplete. The model predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. The reason is that in a recession, a risk averse borrower finds it more costly to repay non-contingent debt and is more likely to default. In a quantitative exercise the model matches various features of the business cycle in Argentina such as: high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of consumption relative to output, a negative correlation of interest rates and output and a negative correlation of the trade balance and output. The model can also predict the recent default episode in Argentina. |
| JEL: | F34 F32 E44 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:7867&r=dev |
| By: | Singh, Nirvikar |
| Abstract: | This paper examines delivery of public health care services in India, in the broader context of decentralization. It provides an overview of the basic features and recent developments in intergovernmental fiscal relations and accountability mechanisms, and examines the implications of these institutions for the quality of public service delivery. It then addresses recent policy proposals on the public provision of health care, in the context of decentralization. Finally, it makes suggestions for reform priorities to improve public health care delivery. |
| Keywords: | federalism; decentralization; intergovernmental relations; accountability; service delivery; health care |
| JEL: | H1 H7 P35 P26 |
| Date: | 2008–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:7869&r=dev |
| By: | Getinet Astatike Haile (Policy Studies Institute, London, UK); Beliyou Astatike Haile (Department of economics, Columbia University, NY) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines determinants of work participation and school attendance for children aged 7-15 using survey data from rural Ethiopia. To this effect, a bivariate probit model that addresses the interrelatedness of the two decisions is employed. Given the agrarian nature of the economy, especial focus is given to child labour on family farms and within the household. The trade-off between child labour and educational attainment is also analysed by estimating an equation for age-adjusted educational attainment of children. Male children are found to be more likely to attend school than female children implying gender bias. There is also some 'specialization' in child labour with females having a higher likelihood and intensity of participation in domestic chores while males having a higher likelihood as well as intensity of participation in market work. Besides, while male children are more likely to combine schooling with market work, their female counterparts are more likely to combine domestic work and schooling. With regard to household characteristics, large family size and the number of dependents increase the probability of combining schooling with both work activities. While education of the head increases the likelihood of school attendance, large livestock population increases the likelihood of combining schooling and market work. More importantly, long hour of work is found to reduce educational attainment of working children. |
| Keywords: | Child labour, Child education, Rural Ethiopia |
| JEL: | I21 J22 O15 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0608&r=dev |