|
on Development |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu; Davide Ticchi; Andrea Vindigni |
| Abstract: | Inefficiencies in the bureaucratic organization of the state are often viewed as important factors in retarding economic development. Why certain societies choose or end up with such inefficient organizations has received very little attention, however. In this paper, we present a simple theory of the emergence and persistence of inefficient states based on patronage politics. The society consists of rich and poor individuals. The rich are initially in power, but expect to transition to democracy, which will choose redistributive policies. Taxation requires the employment of bureaucrats. We show that, under certain circumstances, by choosing an inefficient state structure, the rich may be able to use patronage and capture democratic politics. This enables them to reduce the amount of redistribution and public good provision in democracy. Moreover, the inefficient state creates its own constituency and tends to persist over time. Intuitively, an inefficient state structure creates more rents for bureaucrats than would an efficient state structure. When the poor come to power in democracy, they will reform the structure of the state to make it more efficient so that higher taxes can be collected at lower cost and with lower rents for bureaucrats. Anticipating this, when the society starts out with an inefficient organization of the state, bureaucrats support the rich, who set lower taxes but also provide rents to bureaucrats. We show that in order to generate enough political support, the coalition of the rich and the bureaucrats may not only choose an inefficient organization of the state, but they may expand the size of bureaucracy “excessively” so as to gain additional votes. The model shows that an equilibrium with an inefficient state is more likely to arise when there is greater inequality between the rich and the poor, when bureaucratic rents take intermediate values and when individuals are sufficiently forward-looking. |
| Keywords: | bureaucracy, corruption, democracy, patronage politics, political economy, public goods, redistributive politics. |
| JEL: | P16 H11 H26 H41 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rcr:wpaper:07_05&r=dev |
| By: | Fafchamps, Marcel; Vargas-Hill, Ruth; Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | "Using original data collected about growers, traders, processors, markets, and village communities, we compare the situation in four states – Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Orissa. We examine the way that information about crop attributes is conveyed (or not) along the value chain. We also document the infrastructure available at the level of the market. We find that little information circulates about unobservable crop characteristics. Growers receive a price premium when they dry, grade, and pack their produce, but we find no evidence that information about crop health and safety or agricultural practices circulates through the value chain or that growers are encouraged to follow specific agricultural practices for quality purposes. Market infrastructure is deficient regarding sanitation, with few public toilets, inadequate drainage, and no coordinated pest control." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Food marketing, Food safety, Food quality, Value chain, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00717&r=dev |
| By: | Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Olivier Jeanne |
| Abstract: | According to the consensus view in growth and development economics, cross country differences in per-capita income largely reflect differences in countries' total factor productivity. We argue that this view has powerful implications for patterns of capital flows: everything else equal, countries with faster productivity growth should invest more, and attract more foreign capital. We then show that the pattern of net capital flows across developing countries is not consistent with this prediction. If anything, capital seems to flow more to countries that invest and grow less. We argue that this result -- which we call the allocation puzzle -- constitutes an important challenge for economic research, and discuss some possible research avenues to solve the puzzle. |
| JEL: | F36 F43 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13602&r=dev |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra; Arthur van Soest |
| Abstract: | A dynamic panel data model of neonatal mortality and birth spacing is analyzed, accounting for causal effects of birth spacing on subsequent mortality and of mortality on the length of the next birth interval, while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in mortality (frailty) and birth spacing (fecundity). The model is estimated using micro data on almost 30,000 children of 7,300 Indian mothers, for whom a complete retrospective record of fertility and child mortality is available. Information on sterilization is used to identify an equation for completion of family formation that is needed to account for right-censoring in the data. We find clear evidence of frailty, fecundity, and causal effects of birth spacing on mortality and vice versa, but find that birth interval effects can explain only a limited share of the correlation between neonatal mortality of successive children in a family. We also predict the impact of mortality on total fertility. Model simulations suggest that, for every neonatal death, an additional 0.37 children are born, of whom 0.3 survive. |
| Keywords: | fertility, birth spacing, neonatal mortality, health, dynamic panel data models, siblings |
| JEL: | I12 J13 C33 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:07/168&r=dev |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra |
| Abstract: | There are severe inequalities in health in the world, poor health being concentrated amongst poor people in poor countries. Poor countries spend a much smaller share of national income on health expenditure than do richer countries. What potential lies in political or growth processes that raise this share? This depends upon how effective government health spending in developing countries is. Existing research presents little evidence of an impact on childhood mortality. Using specifications similar to those in the existing literature, this paper finds a similar result for India, which is that state health spending saves no lives. However, upon allowing lagged effects, controlling in a flexible way for trended unobservables and restricting the sample to rural households, a significant effect of health expenditure on infant mortality emerges, the long run elasticity being about -0.24. There are striking differences in the impact by social group. Slicing the data by gender, birth-order, religion, maternal and paternal education and maternal age at birth, I find the weakest effects in the most vulnerable groups (with the exception of a large effect for scheduled tribes). |
| Keywords: | public spending, health, poverty, infant mortality, India |
| JEL: | I12 J13 C33 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:07/169&r=dev |
| By: | Sonia Bhalotra |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic shocks on infant mortality in India and investigates likely mechanisms. A recent OECD-dominated literature shows that mortality at most ages is pro-cyclical but similar analyses for poorer countries are scarce, and both income risk and mortality risk are greater in poor countries. This paper uses individual data on infant mortality for about 150000 children born in 1970- 1997, merged by birth-cohort with a state panel containing information on aggregate income. Identification rests upon comparing the effects of annual deviations in income from trend on the mortality risks of children born at different times to the same mother, conditional upon a number of state-time varying covariates including rainshocks. I cannot reject the null that income shocks have no effect on mortality in urban households, but I find that rural infant mortality is counter-cyclical, the elasticity being about -0.46. This is despite the possibility that relatively high risk women avert birth or suffer fetal loss in recessions. It seems related to the fact that women’s participation in the (informal) labour market increases in recessions, presumably, to compensate a decline in their husband’s wages. Consistent with this but, in contrast to results for richer countries, antenatal and postnatal health-care decline in recessions. These effects are reinforced by pro-cyclicality in state health and development expenditure. Another interesting finding that is informative about the underlying mechanisms is that the effect of aggregate income on rural mortality is driven by non-agricultural income. |
| Keywords: | infant mortality, income volatility, business cycles, India , health care, maternal labour supply, public expenditure. |
| JEL: | I12 J10 O49 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:07/181&r=dev |
| By: | Murray C. Kemp; Ngo Van Long |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we complement the work of Kemp and Shimomura (2002) by considering the case of many donors playing a dynamic non-cooperative game of foreign aid. We consider two models. Model 1 deals with the case where donor countries continually feel the warm glow of from the act of giving. Model 2 postulates that donors will stop giving aid when a target level of development is reached. One of the main results of Model 1 is that there are multiple equilibria that can be Pareto ranked. Another interesting result is that an increase in the level of corruption in the recipient country will reduce the aid level of the low aid equilibrium, but increase that of the high aid equilibrium. In Model 2, the equilibrium strategies are non-linear functions of the level of development. The flow of aid falls at a faster and faster rate as the target is approached. An increase in corruption will increase the flow of aid in this model. <P>On présente deux modèles d’aide internationale dans lesquels deux pays avancés s’engagent dans un jeu dynamique. Dans le premier modèle, les aides apportent aux donateurs des gains moraux. On montre qu’une hausse de la corruption du pays sous-développé peut augmenter les aides. Il y a une multiplicité d’équilibres de Nash, qui peuvent être ordonnés sous le critère de Pareto. Dans le deuxième modèle, les pays donateurs cessent de donner aussitôt que le niveau du développement atteint un but fixé. On montre que l’équilibre de ce modèle implique que le flux d’aide devient de plus en plus faible au fur et à mesure que le niveau de développement s’approche du but fixé. Les pays avancés donnent plus si le taux de corruption augmente. |
| Keywords: | development aid, corruption, dynamic games, differential games, aide internationale, corruption, jeux dynamiques, jeux différentiels |
| JEL: | O11 |
| Date: | 2007–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2007s-23&r=dev |
| By: | Chung Tran (Indiana University Bloomington); Juergen Jung (Indiana University Bloomington) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of extending the coverage of social security to uncovered elderly individuals in the informal sector in developing countries. We use a stochastic overlapping generations framework and incorporate important characteristics of developing countries including family transfers and a sizeable informal sector. Our calibrated model predicts that the introduction of a moderately sized social assistance program decreases steady state output by up to 3.25% and labor supply by up to 2.5%. In contrast to literature focusing on developed countries, the model predicts that extending the coverage of the social security system results in welfare gains for low income households. This result indicates that the insurance function and the redistribution function of the social assistance program dominate the distortionary effects in an environment without adequate risk sharing mechanisms and high inequality. |
| Keywords: | Social Security Reform, Altruism, Informal Sector, Private Transfers, Savings, Labor Supply and Welfare |
| JEL: | E6 E21 E26 H30 H53 H55 I38 O17 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2007026&r=dev |
| By: | Chamberlin, Jordan; Pender, John; Yu, Bingxin |
| Abstract: | "The choices that smallholder farmers are able to make are strongly conditioned by the geographic conditions in which they live. The importance of this fact for rural development strategy is not lost on policy makers. For example, the government of Ethiopia frequently frames policy discussions by broadly different geographical conditions of moisture availability, recognizing moisture reliable, drought prone and pastoralist areas. These conditions are seen as important criteria for determining the nature, extent and priority of development interventions for different parts of the country. There is considerable evidence, however, that other geographical factors also have important implications for rural development options. This paper uses agroecology, access to markets, and population density to define development domains: geographical locations sharing broadly similar rural development constraints and opportunities. Unlike similar efforts conducted elsewhere, this work is unique in that it seeks to move away from a subjective mapping of factors of theorized importance to a more rigorous definition of development domains on the basis of quantitative data on smallholder livelihood strategies. After selecting variables for mapping, we calibrate our definition for domains in such a way that their explanatory power is maximized across a range of livelihood strategies that figure in the current Ethiopian rural development discourse (market engagement, dependence upon agriculture, etc.)." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Smallholders, Small farmers, Geographic conditions, rural development strategies, Development policy, Agro-ecology, Market access, Livelihoods, Population density, |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:eptddp:159&r=dev |
| By: | Zhang, Xiaobo; Xing, Li; Fan, Shenggen; Luo, Xiaopeng |
| Abstract: | "Over the past several decades, China has made tremendous progress in market integration and infrastructure development. Demand for natural resources has increased from the booming coastal economies, causing the terms of trade to favor the resource sector, which is predominantly based in the interior regions of the country. However, the gap in economic development level between the coastal and inland regions has widened significantly. In this paper, using a panel data set at the provincial level, we show that Chinese provinces with abundant resources perform worse than their resource-poor counterparts in terms of per capita consumption growth. This trend that resource-poor areas are better off than resource-rich areas is particularly prominent in rural areas. Because of the institutional arrangements regarding property rights of natural resources, most gains from the resource boom have been captured either by the government or state owned enterprises. Thus, the windfall of natural resources has more to do with government consumption than household consumption. Moreover, in resource-rich areas, greater revenues accrued from natural resources bid up the price of non-tradable goods and hurt the competitiveness of the local economy." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Regional inequality, Resource curse, Dutch disease, Property rights, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00713&r=dev |
| By: | Nhemachena, Charles; Hassan, Rashid |
| Abstract: | "Adaptation to climate change involves changes in agricultural management practices in response to changes in climate conditions. It often involves a combination of various individual responses at the farm-level and assumes that farmers have access to alternative practices and technologies available in the region. This study examines farmer adaptation strategies to climate change in Southern Africa based on a cross-section database of three countries (South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe) collected as part of the Global Environment Facility/World Bank (GEF/WB) Climate Change and African Agriculture Project. The study describes farmer perceptions to changes in long-term temperature and precipitation as well as various farm-level adaptation measures and barriers to adaptation at the farm household level. A multivariate discrete choice model is used to identify the determinants of farm-level adaptation strategies. Results confirm that access to credit and extension and awareness of climate change are some of the important determinants of farm-level adaptation. An important policy message from these results is that enhanced access to credit, information (climatic and agronomic) as well as to markets (input and output) can significantly increase farm-level adaptation. Government policies should support research and development on appropriate technologies to help farmers adapt to changes in climatic conditions. Examples of such policy measures include crop development, improving climate information forecasting, and promoting appropriate farm-level adaptation measures such as use of irrigation technologies." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Adaptation, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00714&r=dev |
| By: | Yesuf, Mahmud; Bluffstone, Randy |
| Abstract: | "Production systems in low-income developing countries are generally poorly diversified, focusing on rainfed staple crop production and raising livestock. These activities are inherently risky and investment and production decisions by farm households are therefore made within environments that are affected by risk. Because of poorly developed or absent credit and insurance markets it is difficult to pass any of these risks to a third party. As a result, it is often found that even when the expected net return is high, households are reluctant to adopt new agricultural technologies when they involve risk. Better understanding risk behavior will be essential for identifying appropriate farm-level strategies for adaptation to climate change by low-income farmers. Despite risk's potentially central role in farm investment decisions, there have been few attempts to estimate the magnitude and nature of risk aversion of farm households in low-income developing countries. To partially close this gap, this paper uses an experimental approach applied to 262 households in the Ethiopian highlands with real payoffs. By incorporating both small and large stakes and gains and losses into the experiment, we test for the presence of low stake risk aversion and loss aversion. We find that more than 50 percent of the households are severely or extremely risk averse. This contrasts with studies in Asia where most household decision-makers exhibit moderate to intermediate risk aversion. We find that households that stand to lose as well as gain something from participation in games are significantly more risk averse than households playing gains-only games. This strongly suggests that agricultural extension efforts involving losses as well as gains may face systematic resistance by farmers in low-income, high-risk environments. Promotion of technologies with downside risks – even if the upside potential is enormous – should therefore be combined with insurance or other support. We also find that even without the possibility of losses households are much more averse to risk when stakes are high. Results indicate that insurance or other support can likely be phased out. After initial successes have convinced farmers that technologies are viable, risk aversion declines. There are also significant differences in risk averting behavior between relatively poorer and wealthier farm households, which is consistent with decreasing absolute risk aversion. This suggests that as wealth is built up households are willing to take on more risk in exchange for higher returns. Both these findings suggest a strong path dependence. Efforts to develop poor rural areas through promotion of risky technologies should take this path dependence into account. Early successes are important, but households should also be allowed to build up wealth before they are challenged or tempted to take on more risky ventures. Furthermore, the finding that even without the possibility of losses households are much more risk averse when stakes are higher, suggests that agricultural extension should start modestly before asking households to take on larger gambles." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | experimental studies, loss aversion, risk aversion, econometric models, Farm households, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00715&r=dev |
| By: | Fan, Shenggen; Gulati, Ashok; Thorat, Sukhadeo |
| Abstract: | "This paper reviews the trends in government subsidies and investments in and for Indian agriculture; develops a conceptual framework and model to assess the impact of various subsidies and investments on agricultural growth and poverty reduction; and, presents several reform options with regard to re-prioritizing government spending and improving institutions and governance. There are three major findings. First, initial subsidies in credit, fertilizer, and irrigation have been crucial for small farmers to adopt new technologies. Small farms are often losers in the initial adoption stage of a new technology since prices of the agricultural products are typically being pushed down by greater supply of products from large farms, which adopted the new technology. But as more and more farmers have adopted HYV, continued subsidies have led to inefficiency of the overall economy. Second, agricultural research, education, and rural roads are the three most effective public spending items in promoting agricultural growth and poverty reduction during all periods. Finally, the trade-off between agricultural growth and poverty reduction is generally small among different types of investments. As for agricultural research, education, and infrastructure development, they have large growth impact and a large poverty reduction impact. Several policy lessons can be drawn. Agricultural input and output subsidies have proved to be unproductive, financially unsustainable, environmentally unfriendly in recent years, and contributed to increased inequality among rural Indian states. To sustain long-term growth in agricultural production, and therefore provide a long-term solution to poverty reduction, the government should cut subsidies of fertilizer, irrigation, power, and credit and increase investments in agricultural research and development, rural infrastructure, and education. Promoting nonfarm opportunities is also important. However, simply reallocating public resources is not the full solution. Reforming institutions can have an equal, if not larger, impact on future agricultural and rural growth and rural poverty reduction." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Rural poverty, Agricultural growth, Investments, subsidies, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00716&r=dev |
| By: | Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Horna, Daniela; Smale, Melinda |
| Abstract: | "Cotton is the largest source of export receipts of several West African countries. Statistics however show a decreasing tendency in cotton yields and an increasing tendency in pesticide use. Under this circumstances there appear to be potential payoffs from the use of biotechnology products in the farming systems of the region. In this study we estimate different scenarios for the potential deployment of insect resistant cotton in selected countries in West Africa (WA). We use an economic surplus model augmented with a more rigorous sensitivity analysis of model parameters. Hypothetical scenarios of Bt cotton adoption in WA are simulated and single point values of model parameters are substituted with probability distributions. The scenarios include: no adoption in WA; adoption of existing varieties; adoption of WA varieties backcrossed with private sector lines; and fluctuating adoption patterns. According to the simulations, the total net benefits of adopting Bt seem to be small even after including the innovator surplus who accrues a larger share of the benefits. In contrast the WA countries included in the evaluation are worse off if they decide no to adopt Bt cotton. These results are in part explained by the conservative assumptions taken. The adoption pattern and the length of the adoption period affect the share of benefits earned by producers as compared to innovators. This study provides tools and information that can be used to build greater confidence in the process of setting agricultural research investment priorities." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Economic impacts, Bt-cotton, Economic surplus model, Economic surplus, Risk, Probability distributions, Impact assessment, Net benefits, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00718&r=dev |
| By: | Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | "Global retail chains are becoming increasingly dominant in the global food trade and their rise leads to dramatic impacts on agricultural supply chains and on small producers. However, the prospects and impacts of a food retail revolution in poor countries are not yet well understood. Here, we examine this question in Madagascar, a poor but stable country where global retailers have been present for over a decade. Our survey and analysis finds that while global retail chains sell better quality food, their prices are 40 to 90% higher, ceteris paribus, than those seen in traditional retail markets. In poor settings, characterized by high food price elasticities, a lack of willingness to pay for quality, and small retail margins, supermarkets appear to set prices with an eye toward maximizing profits based on price-inelastic demands for quality products from a small middle class interested in one-stop shopping. It seems unlikely that global retail chains will further increase their food retail share in such poor settings." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Food retail, Supermarkets, Food quality, Poor Developing countries, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00719&r=dev |
| By: | Jansen, Hans G.P.; Morley, Sam; Kessler, Gloria; Piñeiro, Valeria; Sánchez, Marco; Torero, Maximo |
| Abstract: | "While the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) remains a hotly debated issue in all five Central American countries that are part of the treaty, most discussions are based on preconceived opinions rather than grounded in research-based results. The point of departure of the paper is that the provisions in the agreement concerning the textile maquila industry are likely to have a significant impact on household welfare, despite the already existing preferential access of textile maquila exports to the U.S. market under the rules of origin set by the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) and the U.S.–Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA). What CAFTA does for maquila production in Central America is to make permanent and expand the liberalized rules of origin (granted temporarily and unilaterally by the United States and likely to be revoked in 2008) for inputs to the maquila industry. Therefore, to assess the true impact of the maquila provisions in CAFTA, we need to compare the situations without CAFTA or the CBI/CBTPA with the situation that includes CAFTA, instead of the situations before and after CAFTA. The objectives of the paper are to analyze the likely impacts of CAFTA on the apparel value chain in Central America; assess the bottlenecks and constraints to productivity growth in the apparel industry; and identify the requirements for continuing success in the value chain. In researching the paper, we made use of a variety of methodologies, including literature review, Internet sourcing, field visits, and personal interviews with key players in the sector in all five Central American CAFTA countries. We also used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and combined these with microsimulations based on household surveys, in order to quantify the likely effect of the maquila provisions in CAFTA on economic growth, employment, and poverty. The results suggest that, depending on the country, the maquila provisions in CAFTA add between 0.01% and 1.4% to annual economic growth and between 0.005% and 1.4% per year to employment of particularly female unskilled labor. As a result and depending on the specific country, the rate of total poverty is likely to fall by between virtually zero (Costa Rica) and 0.73% (Honduras) per year relative to a situation without CAFTA's maquila provisions. However, the model-based analyses do not take account of the fact that the quota system for textiles and clothing (the so-called Agreement on Textiles and Clothing, or ATC) expired January 1, 2005, greatly improving the access of China and other low-cost exporters to the U.S. market. Although China has so far voluntarily restricted its apparel exports to the U.S. market, in the longer term market share will increasingly go to countries with the highest comparative advantage. The qualitative analysis in the paper suggests that a survival strategy for the Central American maquila industry should consist of two main elements. First, and in order to make maximum use of the liberalized rules of origin under CAFTA, countries should increasingly move toward full-package production instead of pure assembly. Second, identification of market niches that demand higher-quality apparel produced by firms that respect socially responsible production conditions and are able to deliver fast responsiveness is a crucial means by which the Central American textile industry can develop a comparative advantage vis-à-vis Asian suppliers, needed to survive in an increasingly competitive export market." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Apparel industry, Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), CGE model, Maquila, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00720&r=dev |
| By: | Harizi, Khalid El; Zaki, El Sayed; Prato, Bettina; Shields, Ghada |
| Abstract: | "In this paper we present the findings of a qualitative investigation into some dimensions and implications of policy volatility in the realms of natural resource (NR) governance and devolution in contemporary Sudan, with particular reference to Greater Kordofan. Our goal is to map out some aspects of the interplay between volatility, disempowerment processes affecting both state agents and the rural population, and certain problems of governance that are characteristic but not unique to Sudan. In particular, we argue that volatility is a dimension of poor governance worthy of investigation in its own right, as it is a primary ingredient of what we may call a “self-disempowering state,” where adaptive learning in policy processes is impeded and successful devolution faces particularly complex obstacles. The policy domain that we consider for analysis includes laws, regulations and policies enacted under the label of “Decentralization, Land Allocation and Land Use,” as well as large development projects supporting the decentralization or devolution of NR management to local communities in the region." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Policy Volatility, Devolution, Communities, Governance, Rural population., Decentralization, Natural resource management, Land allocation, Land use, Greater Kordofan, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00721&r=dev |
| By: | Bernard, Tanguy; Gabre-Madhin, Eleni; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | "This paper examines the impact of cooperatives on smallholder commercialization of cereals, using detailed household data from rural Ethiopia. We review the involvement of cooperatives, in terms of who participates and where they are located. We then use the strong government role in promoting the establishment of cooperatives to assume that the decision of where to establish a cooperative is largely driven by external considerations, and is thus exogenous to the members themselves justifying the use of propensity-score matching in order to compare households that are cooperative members to similar households in comparable areas without cooperatives. Four conclusions are derived from the analysis. First, despite the spread of cooperatives – they existed in less than 15 percent of districts in 1994 and nearly 35 percent in 2005 – there are important disparities across regions. Within regions, cooperatives tend to be located in areas that already have better access to markets and lower exposure to price and environmental risks. Second, at the household level participation is only 9 percent, with poorer households less likely to participate. Third, while cooperatives obtain higher prices for their members, they are not associated with a significant increase in the overall share of cereal production sold by their members. Fourth, these average results hide considerable heterogeneity in the impact across households. In particular, we find smaller farmers tend to reduce their marketable surplus as a result of higher prices, while the opposite is true for larger farmers." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Smallholders, Marketing, Cooperatives, Commercialization, Cereal crops, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00722&r=dev |
| By: | Thurlow, James; Kiringai, Jane; Gautam, Madhur |
| Abstract: | "Kenya's economy is relatively diverse, with both agricultural and industrial potential. However, the economy has performed poorly over the last decade, and poverty and inequality have risen. This paper examines the impact of alternative growth paths and rural investments on poverty using an economy-wide model. It finds that if Kenya continues along its current growth path, its economy will have to grow by more than 10 percent per year over the coming decade to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015. Therefore, Kenya must search for alternative sources of poverty-reducing growth. The results of the model indicate that poverty is unlikely to decline significantly without an acceleration of agricultural growth. Growth in agriculture is found to benefit both urban and rural households, whereas industry-led growth benefits a smaller segment of the urban population, thus exacerbating inequality. Kenya's current Economic Recovery Strategy, however, is not optimistic about agriculture's growth potential, focusing more heavily on industry-led growth. Therefore, as Kenya prepares its new national strategy, the country should place greater emphasis on and direct resources toward accelerating agricultural growth. In assessing the impact of rural investments on growth and poverty, the paper finds that increasing agricultural spending to meet the 10 percent target set by the Maputo Declaration would lift an additional 1.5 million people above the poverty line by 2015. Specific agricultural investments have higher returns in different parts of the country, however. Irrigation favors the lowlands and the poorest segment of the population, while research and extension (R&E) favors the midlands and highlands. Investment in R&E is also found to have the highest returns in both growth and poverty reduction. However, increasing agricultural spending to 10 percent of total spending is insufficient to meet either the MDG or the 6 percent agricultural growth target of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program, which Kenya has recently adopted. . Achieving this target requires nonagricultural investments, such as in roads and market development. Building rural roads and reducing agricultural transaction costs significantly reduces poverty and encourages growth beyond rural areas. While it is necessary to increase spending on agriculture, the fiscal burden of an agricultural strategy can be greatly reduced by improving investment efficiency." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Rural investment, Poverty, Inequality, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00723&r=dev |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Nkonya, Ephraim; Okecho, Geresom; Pender, John; Nahdy, Silim; Mugarura, Samuel; Kayobyo, Godfrey |
| Abstract: | "The National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) program of Uganda is an innovative public-private extension service delivery approach, with the goal of increasing market oriented agricultural production by empowering farmers to demand and control agricultural advisory services. Although initial evaluations of NAADS have been quite favourable, these evaluations have been primary qualitative in nature. This study quantifies the initial impacts of NAADS in the districts and sub-counties where the program was operating by 2005. It is based on descriptive analyses of results of a survey of 116 farmer groups and 894 farmers in sixteen districts where the program was operating at the time and four districts where NAADS had not yet begun operating to control for factors that may have contributed to differing initial conditions among the communities. Based on observed differences across the NAADS and non-NAADS sub-counties, it appears that the NAADS program is having substantial positive impacts on the availability and quality of advisory services provided to farmers, promoting adoption of new crop and livestock enterprises as well improving adoption and use of modern agricultural production technologies and practices. NAADS also appears to have promoted greater use of post-harvest technologies and commercial marketing of commodities, consistent with its mission to promote more commercially-oriented agriculture. Despite positive effects of NAADS on adoption of improved production technologies and practices, no significant differences were found in yield growth between NAADS and non-NAADS sub-counties for most crops, reflecting the still low levels of adoption of these technologies even in NAADS sub-counties, as well as other factors affecting productivity. However, NAADS appears to have helped farmers to avoid the large declines in farm income that affected most farmers between 2000 and 2004, due more to encouraging farmers to diversify into profitable new farming enterprises such as groundnuts, maize and rice than to increases in productivity caused by NAADS. NAADS appears to be having more success in promoting adoption of improved varieties of crops and some other yield enhancing technologies than in promoting improved soil fertility management. This raises concern about the sustainability of productivity increases that may occur, since such increases may lead to more rapid soil nutrient mining unless comparable success in promoting improved soil fertility management is achieved. Continued emphasis on improving the market environment, promoting adoption of more remunerative crop enterprises, and applied agronomic research identifying more effective ways to profitably combine inorganic and organic soil fertility measures in different crop systems can help to address this problem. Shortage of capital and credit facilities was often cited by farmers as a critical constraint facing them, in addition to scarcity of agricultural inputs, lack of adequate farmland, unfavorable weather patterns and problems of pests and diseases. These emphasize that the quality of advisory services is not the only important factor influencing technology adoption and productivity, and the need for complementary progress in other areas, especially development of the rural financial system. Implications are drawn for enterprise targeting and ensuring sustainability of improvements in productivity, as well as for designing and implementing service provision programs in other parts of the Uganda and in other countries." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Impact assessment, Agricultural extension, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00724&r=dev |
| By: | You, Liangzhi; Wood, Stanley; Wood-Sichra, Ulrike |
| Abstract: | "Agricultural production statistics reported at country or sub-national geopolitical scales are used in a wide range of economic analyses, and spatially explicit (geo-referenced) production data are increasingly needed to support improved approaches to the planning and implementation of agricultural development. However, it is extremely challenging to compile and maintain collections of sub-national crop production data, particularly for poorer regions of the world. Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the current geographic distribution and spatial patterns of crop performance, and these gaps are unlikely to be filled in the near future. Regardless, the spatial scale of many sub-national statistical reporting units remains too coarse to capture the patterns of spatial heterogeneity in crop production and performance that are likely to be important from a policy and investment planning perspective. To fill these spatial data gaps, we have developed and applied a meso-scale model for the spatial disaggregation of crop production. Using a cross-entropy approach, our model makes plausible pixel-scale assessment of the spatial distribution of crop production within geopolitical units (e.g. countries or sub-national provinces and districts). The pixel-scale allocations are performed through the compilation and judicious fusion of relevant spatially explicit data, including production statistics, land use data, satellite imagery, biophysical crop “suitability” assessments, population density, and distance to urban centers, as wells as any prior knowledge about the spatial distribution of individual crops. The development, application and validation of a prior version of the model using data from Brazil strongly suggested that our spatial allocation approach shows considerable promise. This paper describes efforts to generate crop distribution maps for Sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2000 using this approach. Apart from the empirical challenge of applying the approach across many countries, the application includes three significant model improvements, namely (1) the ability to cope with production data sources that provided different degrees of spatial disaggregation for different crops within a single country; (2) the inclusion of a digital map of irrigation intensity as a new input layer; and (3) increased disaggregation of rainfed production systems. Using the modified spatial allocation model, we generated 5-minute (approximately 10-km) resolution grid maps for 20 major crops across Sub-Saharan Africa, namely barley, dry beans, cassava, cocoa, coffee, cotton, cowpeas, groundnuts, maize, millet, oil palm, plantain, potato, rice, sorghum, soybeans, sugar cane, sweet potato, wheat, and yam. The approach provides plausible results but also highlights the need for much more reliable input data for the region, especially with regard to sub-national production statistics and satellite-based estimates of cropland extent and intensity." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Cross entropy, Spatial allocation, Agricultural production, crop suitability, Geographic information systems, Satellite image, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00725&r=dev |
| By: | Birthal, P.S.; Joshi, P.K.; Roy, Devesh; Thorat, Amit |
| Abstract: | "Agricultural diversification towards high-value crops can potentially increase farm incomes, especially in a country like India where demand for high-value food products has been increasing more quickly than that for staple crops. Indian agriculture is overwhelmingly dominated by smallholders, and researchers have long debated the ability of a smallholder-dominated subsistence farm economy to diversify into riskier high-value crops. Here, we present evidence that the gradual diversification of Indian agriculture towards high-value crops exhibits a pro-smallholder bias, with smallholders playing a proportionally larger role in the cultivation of vegetables versus fruits. The observed patterns are consistent with simple comparative advantage-based production choices. The comparatively high labor endowments of the small farmers, as reflected in their greater family sizes, induce them to diversify towards vegetables. Although fruit cultivation is also labor intensive (as compared to cultivation of staples), fruits are relatively capital intensive, making them a less advantageous choice for smallholders who tend to have low capital endowments. Furthermore, both the probability of participation in fruit and vegetable cultivation as well as land allocation to horticulture decreases with the size of landholdings in India. Small or medium holders do not appear to allocate a greater share of land to fruits or vegetables. However, the share allocated to vegetables is significantly higher if the family size is bigger, while the reverse is true in the case of fruits." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | diversification, Smallholders, High value agriculture, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:00727&r=dev |
| By: | Gregg Huff; Giovanni Caggiano |
| Abstract: | This article uses new data sets to analyze labor market integration between 1882 and 1936 in an area of Asia stretching from South India to Southeastern China and encompassing the three Southeast Asian countries of Burma, Malaya and Thailand. We find that by the late nineteenth century, globalization, of which a principal feature was the mass migration of Indians and Chinese to Southeast Asia, gave rise to both an integrated Asian labor market and a period of real wage convergence. Integration did not, however, extend beyond Asia to include core industrial countries. Asian and core areas, in contrast to globally integrated commodity markets, showed divergent trends in unskilled real wages |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Labor market integration; Migration; Southeast Asia; Terms of trade, real wage convergence |
| JEL: | F15 F22 J31 N35 O15 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_14&r=dev |
| By: | Luis Angeles |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to o¤er a more appropriate test of Kuznets inverted-Uhypothesis than the one routinely used in the literature and implement it using panel and country-by-country regressions. We explore whether countries experiencing large shifts in population from the agri- cultural/rural sector to the urban one are characterized by an evolution of income inequality along the lines discussed by Simon Kuznets in its classical article. Our results show that there is no systematic relationship between income inequality and agricultural employment or rural population. |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_15&r=dev |
| By: | Gregg Huff |
| Abstract: | This article compares Japan and Southeast Asia before the Second World War to explore the question Goldsmith posed: why, since financial transition in all countries follows the same path, should there be such remarkable differences in the speed of transition? Beginning after the Meiji Restoration in 1868 and starting from the same per capita income as Southeast Asian countries, Japan had, by 1913, built a modern financial system comparable to those in the West. But finance in Southeast Asian countries was (and remained in 1939) little developed, dominated by metropolitan interests, heavily reliant on informal finance, and geared towards primary commodity exports. The article argues that Southeast Asia's no more than partial financial transition is explained by a continued ability to tap natural resources, limited technological change, and the laissez-faire stance of colonial governments. Japan, by contrast, could not depend on abundant resources for growth. Its experience demonstrates how nationalist objectives of military power and industrialisation can motivate government to accelerate financial transition |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_17&r=dev |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine; Bity Diene; Theophile Azomahou |
| Abstract: | We first provide a nonparametric inference of the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth on an historical data for 18 countries over the period 1820-2005. The obtained shape shows up convexity for low enough values of life expectancy and concavity for large enough values. We then study this relationship on a benchmark model combining "per- petual youth" and learning-by-investing. In such a benchmark, the generated relationship between life expectancy and economic growth is shown to be strictly increasing and concave. We finally examine a model departing from "perpetual youth" by assuming age-dependent survival probabilities. We show that life-cycle behavior combined with age-dependent sur- vival laws can reproduce our empirical finding. |
| Keywords: | Life expectancy, economic growth, perpetual youth, age-dependent mortality, nonparametric estimation |
| JEL: | O41 I20 J10 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_24&r=dev |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine; Rodolphe Desbordes; Hélène Latzer |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with the impact of epidemics on economic behavior, and in particular on fertility and schooling. Special attention is paid to the fertility eect, which has been at the heart of a recent controversy around the AIDS crisis. An illustrative model is proposed where agents choose labor supply, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that the optimal response in terms of fertility and labor supply to an epidemic shock depends on the relative strength of two forces at work, deriving from: (i) the induced decrease in the survival probability, and (ii) the impact of epidemics on wages. A comprehensive empirical study is then proposed to disentangle the latter eects in the HIV/AIDS and malaria cases. Using data from 69 developing countries over the period 1980-2004, we nd that HIV/AIDS has a robust negative eect on fertility and a robust positive eect on education, while opposite results are found in the case of malaria. We argue that this discrepancy can be attributed to a sizeable wage eect in the AIDS case while such an eect is rather negligible under malaria at least in the short term, as higher malaria prevalence depresses wages in the long term. |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_25&r=dev |
| By: | Takahiro Ito; Takashi Kurosak |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of weather risk on the off-farm labor supply of agricultural households in a developing country. Faced with the uninsurable risk of output and food price fluctuations, poor farmers in developing countries may diversify labor allocation across activities in order to smooth income in real terms.A key feature of this paper is that it distinguishes different types of off-farm labor markets: agriculture and nonagriculture on the one hand, and, wages paid in cash and wages paid in kind on the other. We develop a theoretical model of household optimization, which predicts that when farmers are faced with more production risk in their farm production, they find it more attractive to engage in nonagricultural work as a means of risk diversification, but the agricultural wage sector becomes more attractive when food security is an important issue for the farmers and agricultural wages are paid in kind. To test this prediction, we estimate a multivariate twolimit tobit model of labor allocation using household data from rural areas of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, India. The regression results show that the share of the off-farm labor supply increases with weather risk, the increase is much larger in the case of nonagricultural work than in the case of agricultural wage work, and the increase is much larger in the case of agricultural wages paid in kind than in the cash wage case. Simulation results based on the regression estimates show that the sectoral difference is substantial, implying that empirical and theoretical studies on farmers' labor supply response to risk should distinguish between the types of off-farm work involved. |
| Keywords: | covariate risk, non-farm employment, self-employment, food security, India |
| JEL: | Q12 O15 J22 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hst:hstdps:d07-226&r=dev |
| By: | Alberto Chong (Inter-American Development Bank); Mark Gradstein (Ben Gurion University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the joint effect of economic and political inequalities on redistributive taxation and institutional quality. The theoretical model suggests that income inequality, coupled with political bias in favor of the rich, decreases redistribution and lowers institutional quality. The effect of the former is to increase productive investment, and the effect of the latter is to decrease it—with resulting ambiguous implications for economic growth. Testing these predictions empirically in a panel of countries, the paper finds that inequality has a negative effect on both institutional quality and redistribution, especially in non-democratic countries. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, institutions, redistribution |
| JEL: | D31 D90 E62 H11 O11 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1064&r=dev |
| By: | Hugo Ñopo (Inter-American Development Bank); Laura Ripani (Inter-American Development Bank); Nestor Gandelman (Universidad ORT Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | Unequal income distribution in Latin America and the Caribbean is linked to unequal distributions of (human and physical) assets and differential access to markets and services. These circumstances, and the accompanying social tensions, need to be understood in terms of traditional fragmenting forces; the sectors of the population who experience unfavorable outcomes are also recognized by characteristics such as ethnicity, race, gender and physical disability. In addition to reviewing the general literature on social exclusion, this paper surveys several more specific topics: i) relative deprivation (in land and housing, physical infrastructure, health and income); ii) labor market issues, including access to labor markets in general, as well as informality, segregation and discrimination; iii) the transaction points of political representation, social protection and violence; and iv) areas where analysis remains weak and avenues for further research in the region. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination, Social exclusion, Latin America and the Caribbean |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1065&r=dev |
| By: | Carmen Pages (Inter-American Development Bank); Reyes Aterido (World Bank); Mary Hallward-Driemeier (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Using firm level data on 70,000 enterprises in 107 countries, this paper finds important effects of access to finance, business regulations, corruption, and to a lesser extent, infrastructure bottlenecks in explaining patterns of job creation at the firm level. The paper focuses on how the impact of the investment climate varies across sizes of firms. The differences across size categories come from two sources. First, objective conditions of the business environment do vary systematically by firm types. Micro and small firms have less access to formal finance, pay more in bribes than do larger firms, and face greater interruptions in infrastructure services. Larger firms spend significantly more time dealing with officials and red tape. Second, even controlling for these differences in objective conditions, there is evidence of significant non-linearities in their impact on employment growth. The results suggest strong composition effects: A weak business environment shifts downward the size distribution of firms. In the case of finance and business regulations this occurs by reducing the employment growth of all firms, particularly micro and small firms. On the other hand, corruption and poor access to infrastructure reduce employment growth by affecting the growth of medium size and large firms. With significant differences between firms with less than 10 employees and SMEs, these results indicate significant reforms are needed to spur micro firms to grow into the ranks of the SMEs. |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1066&r=dev |
| By: | Marina Bassi (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This document analyzes the results of a Web-based survey conducted by the Research Department to assess how the IDB is viewed by political and corporate leaders in the region. The questionnaire included 31 questions that compared the IDB to the IMF, World Bank, CAF, BCIE and CDB. The sample includes the responses of 336 representatives from the 26 Latin American and Caribbean IDB member countries. In general, the IDB has a better image than the other multilateral organizations in understanding development problems and contributing to their solutions. Its main comparative advantage is in the design of social service projects (education, health and social security). The IDB also is clearly perceived to outperform its peers in public sector modernization and infrastructure projects. The IDB’s weakest areas are related to its efficiency (lengthy loan approvals) and efforts to help discipline macroeconomic and other policies. Respondents believe that all international organizations should expand their technical assistance and knowledge activities not tied to projects or loans. For the IDB, the survey results also assign a high priority to increasing projects in social areas. |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1067&r=dev |
| By: | Hugo Ñopo (Inter-American Development Bank); Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi (World Bank); Miguel Robles (University of California) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses program evaluation for ProJoven, the Peruvian youth labor training program. Complementing detailed fieldwork, the econometric work implements a two-stage matching procedure on propensity scores, gender and labor income. This allows identification of differentiated program impacts on males and females and attacks the problem of Ashenfelter’s Dips. The evaluation shows substantial differences in ProJoven’s impact for males and females. Eighteen months after participation in the program, employment rates for females improve by about 15 percent (while employment for males reduces by 11 percent), gender occupational segregation reduces by 30 percent, and females’ labor income improves by 93 percent (while males’ earnings increase by 11 percent). Nonetheless, gender equality promotion represents only 1.5 percent of ProJoven’s budget. These results suggest that labor-training programs that promote equal gender participation have disproportionately positive effects on outcomes for women trainees in a labor market with substantial gender differences. |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1068&r=dev |
| By: | Alberto Chong (Inter-American Development Bank); Mark Gradstein (Ben Gurion University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a large cross-country survey of business firms to assess their influence on government policies. It is found that influence is associated with larger, government-owned firms that have a high degree of ownership concentration. In contrast, foreign ownership matters little. It is also found that the extent to which government policies and legislation are viewed as impeding firm growth decreases with political influence and, independently, with a country's level of institutional quality. |
| Keywords: | Politics, Institutions, Influence, Ownership, Government Policies, Firm Growth |
| JEL: | H00 D21 O10 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1069&r=dev |
| By: | Marina Bassi (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Using the Latinobarometro survey, this paper examines Latin Americans' perceptions of the IDB, the World Bank and the IMF. The study analyzes how people's knowledge and evaluation of these multilateral organizations are affected by the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the respondents, the country where they live, the financial position of the IDB in that country, macroeconomic conditions and interviewees’ political orientation and attitudes towards democracy and free markets. The results indicate both good and bad news for the IDB. Negatively, it is the least-known of the three international organizations; but positively, it is the best rated among those familiar with them. Demographic variables and socioeconomic levels are important determinants of who knows these organizations. In terms of grading, the demographic characteristics of the respondent seem to have no impact. Conversely, economic status, macroeconomic conditions (to some extent), and the political orientation of the respondent are significant determinants of people's evaluation. |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1071&r=dev |
| By: | Carlos Scartascini (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This document analyzes the results of a Web-based survey conducted by the Research Department to assess how the IDB is viewed by political and corporate leaders in the region. The questionnaire included 31 questions that compared the IDB to the IMF, World Bank, CAF, BCIE and CDB. The sample includes the responses of 336 representatives from the 26 Latin American and Caribbean IDB member countries. In general, the IDB has a better image than the other multilateral organizations in understanding development problems and contributing to their solutions. Its main comparative advantage is in the design of social service projects (education, health and social security). The IDB also is clearly perceived to outperform its peers in public sector modernization and infrastructure projects. The IDB's weakest areas are related to its efficiency (lengthy loan approvals) and efforts to help discipline macroeconomic and other policies. Respondents believe that all international organizations should expand their technical assistance and knowledge activities not tied to projects or loans. For the IDB, the survey results also assign a high priority to increasing projects in social areas. |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1072&r=dev |
| By: | Alberto Chong (Inter-American Development Bank); Hugo Ñopo (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys evidence on discrimination in Latin America and shows that there is a widespread perception of discrimination, especially against the poor, the uneducated and those who lack connections. The channels through which discrimination occurs may be built on the basis of economic factors. However, while perception surveys may be informative, they are less than ideal at helping pinpoint the extent and mechanisms related. Recent experimental evidence suggests little room for discriminatory practices in the region. This puzzle, where individuals perceive discrimination is in the air, but few act discriminatorily, is consistent with an explanation about stereotyping that vanishes when information flows operate well. |
| Keywords: | Economic Experiments, Discrimination, Latin America |
| JEL: | J15 J16 J71 C93 O54 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1073&r=dev |
| By: | Alberto Chong (Inter-American Development Bank); José Galdo (McMaster University/IZA); Jaime Saavedra (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Peru has one of the highest informality rates in Latin America, with almost 60 percent of the urban labor force working at the margins of labor market legislation or in microenterprises that lack basic labor market standards (Marcouiller, Ruiz de Castilla, and Woodruff, 1997). This paper identifies two factors that can explain the variation in informality rates in the 1990s. First, Peru experienced a steady increase in employment allocation in traditionally “informal†sectors—in particular, retail trade and transport. Second, there was a sharp increase in nonwage labor costs, despite a reduction in the average productivity of the economy. In addition, the paper illustrates the negative correlation between productivity and informality by evaluating the impacts of the PROJOVEN youth training program. |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:1075&r=dev |
| By: | José Miguel Benavente (INTELIS, Department of Economics, University of Chile); Gustavo Crespi (International Development Research Centre); Alessandro Maffioli (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the role of National Research Funds in promoting scientific production in emerging economies. The investigation focuses on the impact of the Chilean National Science and Technology Research Fund (FONDECYT). The analysis uses data drawn from international sources of bibliometric information combined with the administrative records of the program executing unit. To measure the program’s impact, we implement a Regression Discontinuity (RD) design on projects submitted for funding between 1988 and 1995. The results do not show any significant impact either in terms of publications or in terms of quality of publications in the proximity of the program threshold ranking. Although results show that the program has been partially effective in identifying the best projects in terms of expected quality, evidence suggests that the FONDECYT’s lack of impact may be due to targeting problems in terms of both researchers and research projects. |
| Keywords: | FONDECYT; Chile; Economics of Science; Scientific Grants; Regression-discontinuity Analysis; Policy Evaluation. |
| JEL: | O30 O38 H43 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:ovewps:0307&r=dev |
| By: | Carolyn J. Heinrich (La Follette School of Public Affairs); Yeri Lopez (La Follette School of Public Affairs) |
| Abstract: | Social investment funds, a widely used tool of development efforts, aim to support and strengthen local capacity for effective implementation of social and economic infrastructure projects through participatory, community-driven approaches. We investigate whether these participatory methods improve the outcomes of education projects and community members' perceptions of their effectiveness using data from an impact evaluation of the third phase of the Fondo Hondureño de Inversión Social (FHIS). We also make an important contribution with more carefully defined and explicit measures of individuals' participation in community projects. We do not find statistically significant effects of the education projects on academic outcomes of school-aged youth, but we do observe positive, statistically significant relationships between the use of participatory methodologies and household opinions of the projects, as well as between households' level of participation and their opinions of the projects. |
| Keywords: | -- |
| JEL: | N36 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:ovewps:0107&r=dev |
| By: | Pavlina R. Tcherneva; L. Randall Wray |
| Abstract: | In 2002, Argentina implemented a large-scale public employment program to deal with the latest economic crisis and the ensuing massive unemployment and poverty. The program, known as Plan Jefes, offered part-time work for unemployed heads of households, and yet more than 70 percent of the people who turned up for work were women. The present paper evaluates the operation of this program, its macroeconomic effects, and its impact on program participants. We report findings from our 2005 meetings with policymakers and visits to different project sites. We find that Jefes addresses many important community problems, is well received by participants, and serves the needs of women particularly well. Some of the benefits women report are working in mother-friendly jobs, getting needed training and education, helping the community, and finding dignity and empowerment through work. |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_519&r=dev |
| By: | Jan Kregel |
| Abstract: | Ragnar Nurkse was one the pioneers in development economics. This paper celebrates the hundredth anniversary of his birth with a critical retrospective of his overall contribution to the field, in particular his views on the importance of employment policy in mobilizing domestic resources and the difficulties surrounding the use of external resources to finance development. It also demonstrates the affinity between Nurkse’s theory of mobilizing domestic resources and employer-of-last-resort proposals. |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_520&r=dev |
| By: | John A. Maluccio |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mdl:mdlpap:0722&r=dev |
| By: | David T. Coe |
| Abstract: | Globalisation is having important effects on labour markets in OECD countries. The global supply of labour has increased enormously with the emergence of China and India. At the same time technological advances have contributed to heightened income inequality and changed the nature of globalisation itself, most vividly demonstrated by the rapid growth of offshoring of business services that were previously nontradable. It is argued in this paper that these developments are best characterized as an intensification and broadening of the process of globalisation rather than a fundamental change in the nature of globalisation. They will, nevertheless, have long-lasting effects on OECD labour markets, increasing the urgency of implementing the labour market policies set out in the Restated OECD Job Strategy. The paper concludes that the most important implication of the emergence of China and India in the context of widespread perceptions of increasing economic inequality may be to reduce support for globalisation in OECD countries. <BR>La mondialisation a des effets importants sur les marchés du travail des pays de l’OCDE. L’offre mondiale de main-d'œuvre a augmenté considérablement avec l’émergence de la Chine et l’Inde. Dans le même temps, les progrès technologiques ont contribué à renforcer les inégalités de revenus et ont changé la nature même de la mondialisation, comme en témoigne la croissance rapide de la délocalisation des services aux entreprises, qui étaient auparavant non-échangeables. On fait valoir dans ce document que ces évolutions correspondent plus à une intensification et un élargissement du processus de mondialisation qu'à un changement fondamental de nature de la mondialisation. Elles auront, néanmoins, des effets durables sur les marchés du travail dans les pays de l'OCDE, et renforcent de ce fait l'urgence de mettre en œuvre les politiques du marché du travail identifiées dans «La stratégie de l'OCDE pour l'emploi révisée ». Le document conclut que, dans un contexte de perception accrue de croissance des inégalités économiques, la principale conséquence de l’émergence de la Chine et l’Inde peut être de réduire le soutien à la mondialisation dans les pays de l’OCDE. |
| JEL: | F13 F16 J08 |
| Date: | 2007–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:63-en&r=dev |
| By: | Christopher J. Green (Dept of Economics, Loughborough University); Victor Murinde (Birmingham Business School, The University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | Taxation has potentially important implications for corporate behaviour. However, there have been few studies of the impact of taxation on companies in developing countries, and fewer still concerned with unquoted companies. In this paper, we study the impact of tax policy on the financial decisions of a sample of unquoted companies in India during the period 1989-99 when tax rates were generally reduced as part of a wider programme of financial liberalization. We examine the impact of the tax regime on company financing decisions, within the context of a model of company leverage, controlling for non-tax influences suggested by the theory of corporate finance. The analysis is carried out using a balanced panel consisting of the published accounts of 97 Indian unquoted companies which reported continuously during 1989-99. The model is estimated using GMM. Estimates of the impact of the 1990s tax reforms are derived, and implications for policy are drawn. |
| Keywords: | India, corporate finance, taxation |
| JEL: | G30 G32 O16 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2007_25&r=dev |
| By: | Furuoka, Fumitaka |
| Abstract: | This paper critically reviews Japan’s experience from being an aid recipient after the World War Second to becoming a leading donor of Official Development Assistance (ODA) since the 1990s. Of particular significance is the new trend of Japanese aid policy in which Japan stressed the importance of human capital rather than physical capital. Under the new guidelines which were first announced in 1991, Japanese government has paid more attentions to spend their money for human capital investment in developing countries, such as educations, health care, rather than physical investment, such as constructions of dams or highways. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid; Japan; human capital; history |
| JEL: | F35 |
| Date: | 2007–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5654&r=dev |
| By: | Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo |
| Abstract: | This paper belongs to my research program on violence and terrorism started in 1993, as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s. After 14 years of research, particularly after developing a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004, forecasts 2005-2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2005, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/134/01/MPRA_paper_134.pdf), the econometrics of violence, terrorism, and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/539/01/MPRA_paper_539.pdf), and Scenarios for Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019 (Gómez-Sorzano 2006B, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/135/01/MPRA_paper_135.pdf) , I claim in this paper that I have formally developed the concept of Sustainable Peace using advanced econometrics. The concept of Sustainable Peace is thus presented to the international academic community, and is based in the construction of a structural econometric model for National murder, and a model for cyclical terrorist murder that have been simultaneously used for designing Scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019. |
| Keywords: | sustainable peace; scenarios for sustainable peace; scenarios granting sustainable peace; a model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019; democratic security policy; using the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series for pointing out the occurrence of terrorist attacks; the econometrics of violence; terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019; scenarios for sustainable peace in Colombia by year 2019. |
| JEL: | C51 D63 C82 D9 C52 C87 H44 D7 C53 D74 O54 N46 C22 H56 K42 C2 |
| Date: | 2007–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5655&r=dev |
| By: | White, Howard; Blondal, Nina |
| Abstract: | The Millennium Development Goals have become the frame of reference for most of the development community: the standard by which performance will ultimately be judged. Given their importance, considerable attention has been paid as to whether these goals will be met or not. The overwhelming conclusions from such analyses are not positive. The goals will not be met. There are exceptions — education has expanded rapidly, although questions are raised about quality, and some countries, notably in South East Asia, but also South Asia to a lesser extent, have done well across the board and will meet several of the goals. But many countries, most especially in Africa, will not. The projections show that poverty will become more heavily concentrated in Africa in both relative and absolute terms. In addition, whilst urban poverty will increase, in 2015 poverty will remain a predominately rural phenomenon, with 60-70 per cent of the poor (depending on the measure) living in rural areas. But these projections are based on assumptions, including the assumption of business as usual. Various adverse shocks may result in far worse scenarios. On the other hand, more intensive promotion of propoor policies can mean that the goals might yet be realized. |
| Keywords: | Millennium Development Goals; poverty; developing countries |
| JEL: | O1 I3 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5687&r=dev |
| By: | Hashmi, Aamir Rafique |
| Abstract: | I add intangible capital to a variant of the neoclassical growth model and study the implications of this extension for cross-country income differences. I calibrate the parameters associated with intangible capital by using new estimates of investment in intangibles by Corrado et al. [2006]. I find that the addition of intangible capital significantly improves the model's ability to account for cross-country income differences. Specifically, when intangible capital is added to the model, the required TFP ratio to explain observed income differences falls from 4.05 to 2.97. I also study variants of the model with endogenous and exogenous barriers to accumulation of technology capital, which consists of intangible capital and a fraction of physical capital that embodies technology. The addition of endogenous barriers, for reasonable parameter values, has a very small positive effect on the ability of the model to account for income differences. The addition of exogenous barriers suggests that huge cross-country differences in such barriers are needed to generate the observed income differences. |
| Keywords: | Cross-country Income Differences; Intangible Capital; Technology Adoption |
| JEL: | O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:5729&r=dev |
| By: | Svitlana Maksymenko; M. Rabbani |
| Abstract: | . . . |
| JEL: | O10 O15 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:330&r=dev |
| By: | Dennis Tao Yang |
| Abstract: | China?s Great Leap Forward (GLF) of 1958-61, a campaign of unprecedented mobilization efforts to achieve rapid industrialization, ended as a catastrophe. National grain production collapsed and a widespread famine claimed millions of human lives. This paper reviews a growing economic literature on this historical crisis. While multiple causes are hypothesized, empirical findings suggest that the collapse of grain production was primarily attributable to a systematic failure in central planning, involving the diversion of agricultural resources to industry and excessive grain procurements that precipitated malnutrition among peasants and decimation of labor productivity. The resulting decline in grain availability, as well as urban bias in China?s food distribution system, became the main culprits of the enormous famine. In light of the Chinese experience, this paper also explores the role of defective planning in the Soviet famines of 1931-3 and 1947. |
| Keywords: | central planning, food supply, famine, urban bias, China, USSR |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vpi:wpaper:e07-4&r=dev |
| By: | Takane, Tsutomu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the livelihoods of smallholder households in Malawi based on information derived from six villages in various parts of the country. Through detailed analysis of own-farm production and off-farm economic activities, the study explores similarities, diversities, and disparities in rural livelihoods. Liberalization policies and the high risk of crop failure have produced large disparities between those who achieve high income from own-farm production and those who do not. Off-farm income can help to reduce the risk of own-farm production, but is also a source of income disparity and provides little opportunity for upward economic mobility to escape poverty. |
| Keywords: | Livelihoods, Rural development, Agriculture, Nonfarm income, Malawi, Africa, Household, Income |
| JEL: | Q12 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper117&r=dev |
| By: | Kuchiki, Akifumi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we apply a flowchart approach to investigate Malaysia’s automobile cluster policy. We investigate whether the industrial cluster policy has been successful or not, suggest policy prescriptions, and propose a way to prioritize policy measures. Our flowchart approach leads to the following three policy prescriptions: (1) Malaysian firms should establish sites for exporting compact cars with automatic transmissions; (2) actors in the public, semi-public and private sector should work to upgrade skilled labor; and (3) the central government should promote liberalization and deregulation to attract foreign firms into the supporting industries. |
| Keywords: | Malaysia, Automobile industry cluster, Policy prescriptions, Actors, Deregulation, Industrial estates, Industrial policy |
| JEL: | G18 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper120&r=dev |
| By: | Kudo, Toshihiro |
| Abstract: | The Myanmar economy has not been deeply integrated into East Asia’s production and distribution networks, despite its location advantages and notably abundant, reasonably well-educated, cheap labor force. Underdeveloped infrastructure, logistics in particular, and an unfavorable business and investment environment hinder it from participating in such networks in East Asia. Service link costs, for connecting production sites in Myanmar and other remote fragmented production blocks or markets, have not fallen sufficiently low to enable firms, including multi-national corporations to reduce total costs, and so the Myanmar economy has failed to attract foreign direct investments. Border industry offers a solution. The Myanmar economy can be connected to the regional and global economy through its borders with neighboring countries, Thailand in particular, which already have logistic hubs such as deep-sea ports, airports and trunk roads. This paper examines the source of competitiveness of border industry by considering an example of the garment industry located in the Myanmar-Thai border area. Based on such analysis, we recognize the prospects of border industry and propose some policy measures to promote this on Myanmar soil. |
| Keywords: | Myanmar (Burma), Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), Regional cooperation, Border industry, Cross-border trade, Migrant workers, Logistics, Center-periphery, Regional economic cooperation, International trade, Apparel industry, Migrant labor |
| JEL: | F15 F22 J31 L67 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper122&r=dev |
| By: | Ishida, Masami |
| Abstract: | Since the inauguration of the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) Economic Cooperation Program in 1992, road infrastructure projects have played a very important role. Their economic significance, especially, has become a focal point after the introduction of the concept of the three economic corridors in 1998: the East-West Economic Corridor; the North-South Economic Corridor; and the Southern Economic Corridor (Figure 1). The completion of the Second International Mekong Bridge between Mukdahan, Thailand and Savannakhet, Laos was an epoch-making event in the development of the East-West Economic Corridor. The business community, however, has paid more attention to the Bangkok-Hanoi Road than the East-West Economic Corridor. This study examines the reasons why the former has received more focus than the latter, by using criteria such as population density and the economic scale at a provincial or state level. Thereafter, the effectiveness of other economic corridors is examined, by applying the same criteria. |
| Keywords: | Transportation, Gravity, Population, Regional Income, Thailand, Vietnam, Southeast Asia, Regional economic cooperation, Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) |
| JEL: | M31 R40 R58 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper123&r=dev |
| By: | Kawanaka, Takeshi |
| Abstract: | Since a pork barrel is crucial in buying off voters, competition over the distributions among legislators has been considered as one of the main factors in producing congressional political dynamism and congressional institutions. This paper aims to test the theory of pork barrel distributions in the Philippines through OLS regression on the quantitative data of the 12th congress. The results show that some attributes of legislators are statistically significant in estimating pork barrel allocations, but, do not support the hypothesis that the legislators’ proximity to leaders is a determining factor in the distributions. |
| Keywords: | Pork barrel, Legislative politics, Budget, Philippines, Politics, Subsidies, Political corruption, Legislation |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper126&r=dev |
| By: | Oosterhaven, Jan; Stelder, Dirk; Inomata, Satoshi |
| Abstract: | This paper presents four non-survey methods to construct a full-information international input-output table from national IO tables and international import and export statistics, and this paper tests these four methods against the semi-survey international IO table for nine East-Asian countries and the USA, which is constructed by the Institute of Developing Economies in Japan. The tests show that the impact on the domestic flows of using self-sufficiency ratios is small, except for Singapore and Malaysia, two countries with large volumes of smuggling and transit trade. As regards the accuracy of the international flows, all methods show considerable errors, of 10%-40% for commodities and of 10%-70% for services. When more information is added, i.e. going from Method 1 to 4, the accuracy increases, except for Method 2 that generally produces larger errors than Method 1. In all, it seems doubtful whether replacing the semi-survey Asian-Pacific IO table with one of the four non-survey tables is justified, except when the semi-survey table itself is also considered to be just another estimate. |
| Keywords: | Non-survey estimates, International trade, Input-output tables, East-Asia, Southeast Asia, United States |
| JEL: | C81 D57 R15 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper114&r=dev |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Sumayya Goga; Carlene van der Westhuizen (Development Policy Research Unit,University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | Abstract: The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive measure of shifts in welfare in post-apartheid South Africa by examining changes in both income and non-income welfare between 1993 and 2005. Previous research using expenditure or consumption-based measures of income has shown that, depending on the data sources, household income poverty in South Africa either remained static or increased slightly between 1995 and 2000 or between 1996 and 2001. Research considering the changes in non-income welfare in the post-apartheid South Africa has found significant increases in the levels of non-income welfare, driven to a large extend by the increased delivery of basic services by government since 1994. Using factor analysis, we construct a comprehensive household welfare index that includes public assets (government provided services), private assets (including education) and wage and grant income. In addition, a public asset index and a private asset index are constructed that allow us to analyse welfare as captured by access to government provided services and privately owned assets respectively. Given the availability of data for 1999 we are able to provide mid-period estimates for all three indices. When standard poverty measures are applied to our derived indices, we find that total household welfare increased between 1993 and 2005. We also find that total welfare increased at a faster pace between 1993 and 1999 than between 1999 and 2005. The evidence suggests that in the first period the increase was driven largely by increased government service delivery, while in the second period it was driven by the growth in private asset ownership. |
| Keywords: | South Africa: welfare shifts, public assets, private assets |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:96104&r=dev |
| By: | Antonio Rodriguez (Universidad Católica del Norte, Chile); Carlyn Ramlogan (University of Otago, New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents some new evidence on income inequality in Latin America over the period 1980-1999, examining in particular the relationship between corruption, privatisation and inequality. Using a panel data methodology, we find that a reduction in corruption is associated with a rise in inequality. This suggests that while privatisation removes industries from government influence and government corruption, it worsens income inequality as new owners strive for efficiency and profits. The paper highlights the fact that structural reform policies aimed primarily at achieving positive and increasing growth rates do not adequately address the income distribution problem. |
| Keywords: | Población, income inequality, corruption, privatisation, panel data, Latin America, instrumental variables. |
| JEL: | O15 O54 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:200709&r=dev |
| By: | Francisca Guedes de Oliveira (Universidade Católica Portuguesa (Porto)) |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with two things: finding an objective and easily quantifiable measure of government efficiency and testing possible determinants of such quality. As measures of government efficiency we use the ratios of infant mortality rate to health expenditures as a percentage of GDP and the ratios of drop out and illiteracy rates to education expenditures as a percentage of GDP. We assume that government efficiency in providing health and education services depends on economic, political and cultural factors. |
| Keywords: | Government Efficiency, OLS regression, Government output |
| JEL: | A C1 O43 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cap:wpaper:182007&r=dev |
| By: | Francisca Guedes de Oliveira (Universidade Católica Portuguesa (Porto)) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops on a Solow type of model where the government is introduced as a decision maker. Additionally, this paper introduces consumer decisions and assumes that individuals can be differentiated by their relative factor endowment (labor and private capital). The results indicate that the economy’s growth rate has an inverted U-shape relationship with the tax rate on private capital. They also indicate that the tax rate has a positive relation with the amount of money government spend on consumption (rather than on investment in public capital). The paper also concludes that the choice of the tax rate will be above the optimal level and hence the potential growth rate will not be achieved. Taking the analysis further, it can be assumed that voters will try to correct lower tax rates of public investment by choosing an higher tax rate. This tax rate will be higher if society is more disparate in terms of income distribution. Finally, the conclusion from a public policy perspective is that there is a negative relationship between the chosen tax rate and public investment and that this relationship is highly sensitive to the model parameters. |
| Keywords: | growth, income distribution, government budget, government efficiency |
| JEL: | A H O11 O43 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cap:wpaper:192007&r=dev |
| By: | Marc Ground (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Steven F. Koch (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | Estimates of participation or expenditure elasticities depend upon the assumptions made regarding the observation of zero expenditure at the household level. This research examines two single-hurdle models across two commodities for which nearly two-thirds of the observations are zero. The research shows that one hurdle model consistently outperforms the other, and does so for intuitively appealing reasons. |
| JEL: | C31 D12 |
| Date: | 2007–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200703&r=dev |
| By: | Olusegun A. Akanbi (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Niek J. Schoeman (Bureau for Economic Policy and Analysis (BEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on research aimed at measuring the determinants of education spending in Africa and secondly, investigates whether expenditure on education in Africa optimizes social welfare. The empirical estimations are carried out using a public choice model on a panel of 29 selected African countries over the period 1995-2004. The results show that government expenditure on education is not resilient to shocks and the education sector is not seriously affected by allocative changes that favour corruption. However, expenditure on education in Africa does not comply with the rules outlined by the IMF in terms of their fiscal adjustment program. |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200707&r=dev |
| By: | Dave Liu (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This essay is a comparison study of traditional Neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory. It also discusses growth theory in the real world by investigating the so called “growth miracles” and “growth disasters” scenarios in the developing world. Finally, the essay performs a standard growth accounting exercise on South African economy mainly focuses on the importance of human capital in growth process. Growth accounting exercise shows that South Africa experiences a capital-accumulated growth in the 1970s and 80s, while sharply shifts to technology-accumulated growth in the 1990s and early 2000s. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, Solow growth model, Growth accounting |
| JEL: | O32 O40 O47 O49 O55 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200714&r=dev |
| By: | Margaret Chitiga (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Ramos Mabugu (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Tonia Kandiero (National Treasury) |
| Abstract: | The paper uses a micro-simulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact on poverty of a complete removal of tariffs in Zimbabwe. The model incorporates 14006 households derived from the 1995 Poverty Assessment Study Survey. This paper’s novelty is that it is one among a small group of papers that incorporates individual households in the CGE model as opposed to having representative households. Using individual households allows for a comprehensive analysis of poverty. The complete removal of tariffs favours exporting sectors. Poverty falls in the economy while inequality hardly changes. The results differ between rural and urban areas. |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium, Trade Liberalisation, Micro-simulation, Poverty, Inequality |
| JEL: | C68 D31 D58 I32 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200715&r=dev |
| By: | Margaret Chitiga (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Ramos Mabugu (Financial and Fiscal Commission) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the effects that a higher tariff on agriculture and food imports could have on poverty and the macroeconomy using a top down computable general equilibrium microsimulation model. This question is of broader relevance to developing countries that may be contemplating the use of World Trade Organisation permissible trade barriers so as to achieve a domestic policy objective. Generally speaking, the results suggest that doubling protection of agriculture and food would lead to a reallocation of labour toward the sectors with high initial protection and those with high domestic orientation. Agriculture and food sectors are harmed by increased protection if the government chooses to use indirect tax rates to compensate for revenue changes because of induced demand contraction by the indirect tax adjustment. Exports and imports in general decline. The analysis also shows that increasing food and agricultural protection has very negligible but negative effects on welfare and poverty. |
| Keywords: | CGE model; microsimulation, trade policy, special and differential treatment, poverty, welfare, South Africa |
| JEL: | D33 D58 E27 F17 I32 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200717&r=dev |