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on Development |
| By: | Baland, Jean-Marie; Duprez, Cédric |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a model of North-South trade to analyze the impact of a label certifying the absence of child labour in the export production of the South. When most eligible producers in the South can obtain the label, its impact is considerably reduced by a displacement effect whereby adult workers replace children in the export sector while children replace adults in the domestic sector. The label is then unable to create a price differential between goods produced under the label and those produced without it. When only a small fraction of eligible producers have access to the label, so that the South exports both labelled and unlabelled production to the North, labelled producers generally gain while those without a label generally loose from the introduction of the label. Ex ante welfare may thus fall in the South if the probability of getting a label when one qualifies is small. The impact on child labour is in general ambiguous, as the reaction of child labour to higher or lower adult and children wages depends on the strength of income and substitution effects. |
| Keywords: | child labour; fair trade; label |
| JEL: | F02 F16 O10 O19 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6259&r=dev |
| By: | Anna Maria Mayda (Department of Economics and School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper I empirically investigate the determinants of migration inflows into fourteen OECD countries by country of origin, between 1980 and 1995. I analyze the effect on migration of average income and income dispersion in destination and origin countries. I also examine the impact of geographical, cultural, and demographic factors as well as the role played by changes in destination countries’ migration policies. My analysis both delivers estimates consistent with the predictions of the international migration model and generates empirical puzzles. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Determinants, Push and Pull Factors, Migration Policy |
| JEL: | F22 F1 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:0707&r=dev |
| By: | Ellen R. McGrattan; Edward C. Prescott |
| Abstract: | A framework is developed with what we call technology capital. A country is a measure of locations. Absent policy constraints, a firm owning a unit of technology capital can produce the composite output good using the unit of technology capital at as many locations as it chooses. But it can operate only one operation at a given location, so the number of locations is what constrains the number of units it operates using this unit of technology capital. If it has two units of technology capital, it can operate twice as many operations at every location. In this paper, aggregation is carried out and the aggregate production functions for the countries are derived. Our framework interacts well with the national accounts in the same way as does the neoclassical growth model. It also interacts well with the international accounts. There are constant returns to scale, and therefore no monopoly rents. Yet there are gains to being economically integrated. In the framework, a country’s openness is measured by the effect of its policies on the productivity of foreign operations. Our analysis indicates that there are large gains to this openness. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:651&r=dev |
| By: | Mattlin, Mikael (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent regulatory and policy changes that affect the Chinese central government's ownership and authority over the capital allocations of strategic state-owned enterprises (SOE). The paper examines the reform of the central government's relationship with key SOEs as a consequence of the establishment of the State Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) in 2003, the coming introduction of a centralised operating and budgeting system for SOEs, and the government's ongoing re-evaluation of its ownership policy. SASAC appears to have the potential to develop into a major actor in China's domestic capital allocation, with an active role in strategic financing and restructuring of key sectors of the Chinese economy. The data reviewed for this paper strongly suggests that the Chinese central government aims to retain significant ownership control over key SOEs and, by extension, over a major part of the domestic economy. The new operating and budgeting system is set to significantly enhance central government control over SOEs' capital allocation. |
| Keywords: | state-owned enterprises; privatisation; corporate governance; China |
| JEL: | G32 G38 P26 P31 |
| Date: | 2007–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2007_010&r=dev |
| By: | Mehrotra, Aaron (BOFIT); Rautava, Jouko (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People’s Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector autoregressive models, each composed of one diffusion index and one real sector variable, generally outperform univariate AR models in forecasting one to four quarters ahead. Similarly, principal components analysis, combining information from various diffusion indices, leads to enhanced forecasting performance. Our results indicate that Chinese business sentiment indicators convey useful information about current and future developments in the real economy. They also suggest that the official data provide a fairly accurate picture of the Chinese economy. |
| Keywords: | forecasting; diffusion index; VAR; China |
| JEL: | E32 E37 P27 |
| Date: | 2007–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2007_011&r=dev |
| By: | Florence Kondylis (The Earth Institute at Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | In 1997 Rwanda introduced a re-settlement policy for refugees displaced during previous conflicts. We exploit geographic variation in the speed of implementation of this policy to investigate the impact of conflict-induced displacement and the re-settlement policy on household agricultural output and on skill spill-over mechanisms between returnees and stayers. We find that returns to onfarm labour are higher for returnees relative to stayers, although the evidence suggests that the policy contributed little additional effect to this differential. More speculatively, these differentials suggest that, upon return from conflict-induced exile, returnees are more motivated to increase their economic performance. |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:28&r=dev |
| By: | Abbey Steele (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | The displacement of civilians is a frequent, yet understudied, outcome of armed groups’ and civilians' behavior during civil wars. In particular, I find that displacement as a strategy of armed groups is an especially undeveloped area of study, and argue that a focus on mass displacements as the dependent variable can provide leverage for explaining variation in outcomes over time and across space. I suggest that three sets of factors explain the variation: armed groups’ goals, competition among armed groups, and community governance mechanisms. After outlining the theory and hypotheses, I consider the implications of the approach for appropriate units of analysis. With data on displacement in the Colombian civil war, I use both events of massive displacement and municipal population flows as indicators of the dependent variable to consider the plausibility of the framework’s empirical implications. Finally, I propose additional qualitative, micro-level research strategies to enable tests of the mechanisms underlying the theory. |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:29&r=dev |
| By: | Shanley Pinchotti (KU Leuven); Philip Verwimp (Université Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the theory of social capital to the unfolding of genocide in a Rwandan community located 50 km south of the capital. Using the concepts defined by Putnam, Coleman and Woolcock, we find that the activities of political parties, civil war in the north of the country and the use of coercion and violence inside the community weakened existing ties between members of the two ethnic groups, Hutu and Tutsi. Within these groups however, social ties were strengthened to a degree where collective action against the minority group became a feasible option. In this process, we analyse the role of a small group of key players in the community and link their role with their political and economic status. The genocide is thus situated and interpreted in the social fabric of a Rwandan community. The paper is the result of intensive field work in Rwanda. |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:30&r=dev |
| By: | Jennifer Hunt (McGill University, NBER and IZA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine the role of household income in determining who bribes and how much they bribe in health care in Peru and Uganda. I find that rich patients are more likely than other patients to bribe in public health care: doubling household consumption increases the bribery probability by 0.2-0.4 percentage points in Peru, compared to a bribery rate of 0.8%; doubling household expenditure in Uganda increases the bribery probability by 1.2 percentage points compared to a bribery rate of 17%. The income elasticity of the bribe amount cannot be precisely estimated in Peru, but is about 0.37 in Uganda. Bribes in the Ugandan public sector appear to be fees-for-service extorted from the richer patients amongst those exempted by government policy from paying the official fees. Bribes in the private sector appear to be flat-rate fees paid by patients who do not pay official fees. I do not find evidence that the public health care sector in either Peru or Uganda is able to pricediscriminate less effectively than public institutions with less competition from the private sector. |
| Keywords: | corruption, bribery, governance, health care |
| JEL: | H4 K4 O1 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2757&r=dev |
| By: | Bjorn Gustafsson (University of Göteborg and IZA); Deng Quheng (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Since the second half of the 1990s economic restructuring in urban China has led to widespread joblessness and income insecurity. The rapid expansion of the system of social assistance, Di Bao, can be understood from this perspective. Using a survey covering large parts of urban China in 2002, we investigate factors affecting receipt and how receipt affects urban poverty. Results from estimating probability models indicate that social assistance receipt is strongly linked to joblessness among household members, the household’s expenditure burden, as well as the lack of financial assets. Further, a long education of the household head and membership in the Communist Party reduces the probability of receiving social assistance while having been sent to rural China during the Cultural Revolution increases it. For some types of households, receipt of Di Bao differs greatly across cities in China. The social assistance payments appear strongly targeted to the poor. However, as the Di Bao payments typically are small and many of the urban poor are not receivers, much urban poverty remains. |
| Keywords: | social assistance, poverty, China, cultural revolution |
| JEL: | I32 I38 P36 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2758&r=dev |
| By: | Gianna Claudia Giannelli (University of Florence, CHILD and IZA); Francesca Francavilla (University of Florence) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with female employment in developing countries. We set out a model to test our argument that, at the first stage of development, demographic and health programmes have proven to be more effective for women’s position in the society than specific labour and income support policies. Our household model in the collective framework predicts that an exogenous improvement in household production technology due to demographic and health policies gives the wife the opportunity to employ her time resources more efficiently, and, by consequence, the power to choose to participate or not to the labour market. A unique, rich and representative data survey for all Indian states and rural India (NFHS-2, 1998-1999) allows us to analyse the role of Family Planning (FP), reproductive and child care programmes, for the employment probability of married women aged 15 to 49. Our results for urban and rural India show that the FP effect is significant in rural India, that is, women that have been visited by an FP public worker have a higher probability of being employed. Moreover, for rural India, we compare this effect with that one of Governmental Policies (GP) supporting household income and promoting employment. Our results show that the effect of this particular FP intervention has been more effective for women’s employment than GP. This result appears to be robust across different definitions of female employment and model specifications. |
| Keywords: | women’s employment in developing countries, family planning, urban and rural analyses |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 O18 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2762&r=dev |
| By: | Diana Kruger (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso); Rodrigo R. Soares (University of Maryland, Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, NBER and IZA); Matias Berthelon (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and estimates a simple structural model of household decisions regarding child labor and schooling. We argue that part of the conflicting results from the previous literature - related to the effect of improvements in economic conditions on child labor - derives from the different income and substitution effects implicit in different types of income variation. Our model leads to an empirical specification where income and substitution effects can be clearly identified. We apply our model to Brazil and use agricultural shocks to local economic activity (coffee and overall agricultural production) to distinguish between the effects of increases in household income and increases in the opportunity cost of children’s time. The results show that higher parental wages and household wealth are associated with lower child labor and higher school attendance. Nevertheless, conditional on family income and socioeconomic status, exogenous temporary increases in local economic activity are associated with increased opportunity cost of children’s time and, therefore, higher child labor and lower schooling. The results reconcile economic theory with seemingly contradictory evidence from the previous empirical literature. |
| Keywords: | child labor, schooling, generalized ordered logit, Brazil |
| JEL: | D13 J22 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2776&r=dev |
| By: | Una Okonkwo Osili; Bridget Terry Long |
| Abstract: | The literature generally points to a negative relationship between female education and fertility. Citing this pattern, policymakers have advocated educating girls and young women as a means to reduce population growth and foster sustained economic and social welfare in developing countries. This paper tests whether the relationship between fertility and education is indeed causal by investigating the introduction of universal primary education in Nigeria. Exploiting differences by region and age, the paper uses differences-in-differences and instrumental variables to estimate the role of education in fertility. The analysis suggests that increasing education by one year reduces fertility by 0.26 births. |
| JEL: | I2 J13 O10 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13070&r=dev |
| By: | Ariel Burstein; Alexander Monge-Naranjo |
| Abstract: | Managerial know-how shapes the productivity of firms by defining the set of available technologies, production choices, and market opportunities. This know-how can be reallocated across countries as managers acquire control of factors of production abroad. In this paper, we construct a quantitative model of cross-country income differences to study the aggregate consequences of international mobility of managerial know-how. We use the model and aggregate data to infer the relative scarcity of this form of know-how for a sample of developing countries. We also conduct policy counterfactuals and find that on average, developing countries gain up to 23% in output and 9% in consumption when they eliminate all barriers to foreign control of domestic factors of production. |
| JEL: | F23 F43 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13073&r=dev |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman; Mark Spiegel |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff -- a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. We examine a panel of 241 "stagnation episodes" from 146 countries, 54 % of these episodes are followed by takeoffs. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0% growth; 46% of the takeoffs are "sustained," i.e. lasting 8 years or longer. Using probit estimation, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one standard deviation increase in de jure trade openness is associated with a 55% increase in the probability of a takeoff in our default specification. We also find evidence that capital account openness encourages takeoff responses, although this channel is less robust. Measures of de facto trade openness, as well as a variety of other potential conditioning variables, are found to be poor predictors of takeoffs. We also examine the determinants of nations achieving sustained takeoffs. While we fail to find a significant role for openness in determining whether or not takeoffs are sustained, we do find a role for output composition: Takeoffs in countries with more commodity-intensive output bundles are less likely to be sustained, while takeoffs in countries that are more service-intensive are more likely to be sustained. This suggests that adverse terms of trade shocks prevalent among commodity exports may play a role in ending long-term high growth episodes. |
| JEL: | F13 F15 F36 O11 O57 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13084&r=dev |
| By: | Ram C. Acharya; Wolfgang Keller |
| Abstract: | While there is general agreement that technology differences must figure prominently in any successful account of the cross-country income variation, not much is known on the source of these technology differences. This paper examines cross-country income differences in terms of factor accumulation, domestic R&D, and foreign technological spillovers. The empirical analysis encompasses seventeen industrialized countries in four continents over three decades, at a level disaggregated enough to identify innovations in a number of key high-tech sectors. International technology transfer is found to play a crucial part in accounting for income differences. We also relate technology transfer to imports, showing that imports are often a major channel. At the same time, our analysis highlights that international technology transfer varies importantly across industries and countries. |
| JEL: | F1 F2 O3 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13086&r=dev |
| By: | Louka T. Katseli; Robert E.B. Lucas; Theodora Xenogiani |
| Abstract: | Managing migration has become a priority for policy makers both in developed and developing countries; it is a difficult challenge indeed. Large immigration or emigration flows relative to domestic population’s impact on almost all aspects of an economy and society: family structures, community life, educational and health systems, labour markets, security systems, governance and institutions. Despite the inherent difficulties in policy making, there is a growing awareness that if management can be improved, important gains for both migrant-receiving (“host”) and migrant-sending (“home”) countries may be generated. Effective management can furthermore mitigate the risks associated with migration.... |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaab:30-en&r=dev |
| By: | Daniel Cohen; Pierre Jacquet; Helmut Reisen |
| Abstract: | Suppose a DAC donor earmarks $1 billion of taxpayers’ money for official development assistance (ODA). The donor may use two instruments as an outright grant or in combination with a market loan to produce a concessional loan of $2 billion with a percentage grant element of 50 per cent. Many nowadays think the choice should be clear: provide grants only, leave loans to the market. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to qualify and inform this choice.... |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaab:31-en&r=dev |
| By: | Denis Drechsler; Felix Zimmermann |
| Abstract: | With concern about how to finance the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) widespread, recent donor pledges to raise aid volumes are welcome. However, aid alone will not suffice – bringing in new actors and sources of development finance will be essential. In many developing countries, this is already happening, creating new opportunities and challenges for their governments and donors.... |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaab:33-en&r=dev |
| By: | Barbara Harriss-White and John Harriss |
| Abstract: | This working paper has two objectives. The first is to summarise the results of rounds of research from 1973 onwards on the green revolution in South India. It provides background both to the research reported in Harriss-White, Janakarajan et al, 2004, 'Rural India facing the 21st century' (London, Anthem) and to several research projects currently being conducted by masters and doctoral students in QEH. The second objective is to reflect on the achievements and problems of those long term villages studies which are not based on panel data - at a time when village studies have been neglected and are being revived once more. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps146&r=dev |
| By: | Stefan Dercon (QEH) |
| Abstract: | Increased openness is seen by some as a panacea for development while for others it is a recipe for disaster for the poor. Using the example of Ethiopia, this paper discusses some of the key challenges faced by some of the poorest African countries to beneficially engage in the world economy. Worldwide income growth has largely bypassed many African countries, and large parts of their populations risk increasing marginalization. This paper documents the challenges faced by one of these countries, Ethiopia, by highlighting first the impact of a first wave of liberalization in the early 1990s, using the evidence from a rural panel data set. It was found that while liberalization had some positive effects in this particular period, the benefits were largely confined to those with good assets, not least in terms of geography and road infrastructure. In subsequent years, access to infrastructure seems to have been causing even further growth and poverty divergence within rural Ethiopia. This evidence suggests that access to better infrastructure and communications will be key to have beneficial effects of further liberalization and engagement with the world econoy. Finally, we find some evidence that liberalization has shifted the nature of risks towards a higher incidence of market related risks with an impact on households, such as sudden output price collapses or input price increases. While it is not possible to infer from this that vulnerability to poverty has necessarily increased, one would need to recognize that these shifts in risk will require different responses from households themselves and from policy makers. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps147&r=dev |
| By: | Stefan Dercon (QEH) |
| Abstract: | This note has three objectives: first, it aims to take stock of the nature of the evidence available and on the links between uninsured risk and shocks on the one hand, and growth and poverty on the other, both at a macro and micro level. Secondly, it makes a number of suggestions of the type of work that could be fruitfully implemented. Finally, it tries to strike a balance between the needs for the policy maker and the requirements for academic scrutiny of evidence, in offering suggestions for priorities in work. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps148&r=dev |
| By: | Stefan Dercon (QEH) |
| Abstract: | High downside risk to income and livelihoods is part of life in developing countries. Climatic risks, economic fluctuations, and a large number of individual-specific shocks leave these households vulnerable to severe hardship. The paper explores the links between risk, vulnerability and poverty, taking a micro-level perspective. Risk does not just result in variability in living standards. There is increasing evidence that the lack of means to cope with risk and vulnerability is in itself a cause of persistent poverty and poverty traps. Risk results in strategies that avoid taking advantage of profitable but risky opportunities. Shocks destroy human, physical and social capital limiting opportunities further. The result is that risk is an important constraint on broad-based growth in living standards in many developing countries. It is a relatively ignored part when designing anti-poverty policies and efforts to attain the Millennium Development Goals. The paper discusses conceptual issues, the evidence and the policy implications. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps149&r=dev |
| By: | Wang, Shuilin; Zeng, Douglas Zhihua |
| Abstract: | The rapid pace of economic growth in China has been unprecedented since the start of economic reforms in late 1970s. It has delivered higher incomes and made the largest single contribution to global pove rty reduction. Measured by international poverty lines, from 1978-2004, the absolute poor population in rural areas has dropped from 250 million to 26.1 million. Such gains are impressive and have been driven largely by a set of market-oriented institutional reforms, strong investment, and effective adoption and application of various knowledge and technologies, especially foreign ones through trade and foreign direct investment. While enjoying tremendous success, China also faces many challenges that need to be addressed to sustain its long-term development. These include weak institutions, low overall educational attainment, weak indigenous innovation capacity, poor links between research and development and industries, and so on. This paper provides an analysis of some strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges to China ' s knowledge economy in the areas of economic incentives and institutional regime, human capital, innovation system, and information infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Tertiary Education,Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems,ICT Policy and Strategies,Population Policies,Technology Industry |
| Date: | 2007–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4223&r=dev |
| By: | De Hoyos, Rafael E. |
| Abstract: | The author implements several inequality decomposition methods to measure the extent to which total household income disparities can be attributable to sectoral asymmetries and differences in skill endowments. The results show that at least half of total household inequality in Mexico is attributable to incomes derived from entrepreneurial activities, an income source rarely scrutinized in the inequality literature. He shows that education (skills) endowments are unevenly distributed among the Mexican population, with positive shifts in the market returns to schooling associated with increases in inequality. Asymmetries in the allocation of education explain around 20 percent of overall household income disparities in Mexico during the 1990s. Moreover, the proportion of inequality attributable to education endowments increases during stable periods and reduces during the crisis. This pattern is explained by shifts in returns to schooling rather than changes in the distribution of skills. Applying the same techniques to decompose within-sector income differences, the author finds that skill endowments can account for as much as 25 percent of earnings disparities but as little as 5 percent of dispersion in other income sources. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Income,Services & Transfers to Poor,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2007–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4224&r=dev |
| By: | Schady, Norbert; Paxson, Christina |
| Abstract: | The authors examine how a government-run cash transfer program targeted to poor mothers in rural Ecuador influenced the health and development of their children. This program is of particular interest because, unlike other transfer programs that have been implemented recently in Latin America, receipt of the cash transfers was not conditioned on specific parental actions, such as taking children to health clinics or sending them to school. This feature of the program makes it possible to assess whether conditionality is necessary for programs to have beneficial effects on children. The authors use random assignment at the parish level to identify the program ' s effects. They find that the cash transfer program had positive effects on the physical, cognitive, and socioemotional development of children, and the treatment effects were substantially larger for the poorer children than for less poor children. Among the poorest children in the sample, those whose mothers were eligible for transfers had outcomes that were on average more than 20 percent of a standard deviation higher than those for comparable children in the control group. Treatment effects are somewhat larger for girls and for children with more highly-educated mothers. The authors examine three mechanisms-better nutrition, greater use of health care, and better parenting-through which the transfers might influence child development. The program appeared to improve children ' s nutrition and increased the chance they were treated for helminth infections. But children in the treatment group were not more likely to visit health clinics for growth monitoring, and the mental health and parenting of their mothers did not improve. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring & Evaluation,Youth and Governance,Street Children,Adolescent Health,Educational Sciences |
| Date: | 2007–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4226&r=dev |
| By: | Lunde, Trine; Skoufias, Emmanuel; Patrinos, Harry Anthony |
| Abstract: | Despite significant changes in poverty overall in Latin America, the proportion of indigenous peoples living in poverty did not change much from the early 1990s to the present. While earlier work focused on human development, much less has been done on the distribution and returns to income-generating assets and the effect these have on income generation strategies. The authors show that low income and low assets are mutually reinforcing. For instance, low education levels translate into low income, resulting in poor health and reduced schooling for future generations. Social networks affect the economic opportunities of individuals through two important channels-information and norms. However, the analysis shows that the networks available to indigenous peoples do not facilitate employment in nontraditional sectors. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction,Anthropology,Economic Theory & Research,Investment and Investment Climate |
| Date: | 2007–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4227&r=dev |
| By: | Iyer, Lakshmi; Do, Quy-Toan |
| Abstract: | The authors conduct an econometric analysis of the economic and social factors which contributed to the spread of violent conflict in Nepal. They find that conflict intensity is significantly higher in places with greater poverty and lower levels of economic development. Violence is higher in locations that favor insurgents, such as mountains and forests. The authors find weaker evidence that caste divisions in society are correlated with the intensity of civil conflict, while linguistic diversity has little impact. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Social Conflict and Violence,Services & Transfers to Poor,Post Conflict Reintegration,Peace & Peacekeeping |
| Date: | 2007–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4228&r=dev |
| By: | Ronelle Burger (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | This chapter investigates how effective recent changes in the South African public health care system have been in transforming the inequitable system inherited from the apartheid-era government. How has post-apartheid budget reallocations, decentralisation, the elimination of primary health care user fees and expansion of the network of clinics changed the incidence of spending and the quality of services provided? Have these changes benefited the poor? The results from research conducted indicate that the distribution of health spending on hospitals and clinics is driven by utilisation patterns. The decision by the affluent to opt-out of the public health system means that the most affluent receive a dramatically smaller proportion of the budget than the rest. There is, however, not much evidence of pro-poor targeting for the rest of the income distribution. However, in terms of spending equity, South Africa compares well with other developing countries. It is clear that health services have become more accessible and more affordable for the poor. Yet, the government is still far from achieving universal access and the desired degree of equity. In addition, there are concerns regarding the quality of services provided by public sector clinics and hospitals. Dissatisfaction among users of public sector services has increased and complaints include long waiting times, staff rudeness and problems with the availability of drugs. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal incidence, South Africa, health |
| JEL: | H51 I18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers37&r=dev |
| By: | Servaas van der Berg (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Ronelle Burger (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Rulof Burger (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Megan Louw (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Derek Yu (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | This paper makes a unique contribution to the South African literature in combining data from an alternative source of household survey data – the All Media and Product Survey (AMPS) – with national accounts income trends for this country, in the recent tradition of research on the world distribution of income performed by Bhalla (2002), Karshenas (2003), Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002), Sala-i-Martin (2002a; 2002b), and Quah (2002), amongst others. Its usefulness lies in arriving at alternative estimates of post-transition poverty and inequality that are consistent with the story that national accounts and other official data collectively tell us about the path of the South African economy during the post-transition period. While the method of scaling survey distribution data by national accounts means is somewhat controversial, it is not clear that the distributional trends obtained using the post-transition sets of either the IESs or the Population Censuses are more reliable, given serious deficiencies in both sources of data. Adjusted distributions yield lower levels of poverty and a stronger decline in poverty during the second half of the period than the figures obtained from the raw AMPS data. While the levels of poverty obtained using adjusted income distributions are artificially low, the derived downward trend is supported by a number of official data sources. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Inequality, Income distribution Analysis, South Africa |
| JEL: | D6 I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers40&r=dev |
| By: | Linda Yueh |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the traits of the self-employed entrepreneurs in urban China, an economy rife with informational and institutional imperfections, under-developed financial markets, but a growing and important non-state sector. The self-employed make on average 20% more than non-entrepreneurs, but are similar in their age, marital status, educational attainment, and socio-economic background. Fewer are Communist Party members and more have experienced unemployment. Social networks are significant in entrepreneurship, while women and older workers are less likely to become self-employed unless they have experienced unemployment. Motivation and drive, as do attitudes toward risk, are also determinative factors. |
| Keywords: | Asia, China, Self-employment, Entrepreneurship, Social networks |
| JEL: | J44 O53 O12 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:324&r=dev |
| By: | Almudena Sevilla Sanz |
| Abstract: | This paper explains the existing cross-country differences in household formation rates in industrialized countries by highlighting how an individual`s probability to form a household may be affected by social norms toward the household division of labor. Because social norms are to a large extent enforced through non-market interactions they are difficult to isolate empirically. Two identification strategies are proposed. First, a diff-in-diff like approach is used for the identification of the effect of social norms net of other country-specific and time varying factors. A second identification strategy uses an individual`s reported attitudes toward the household division of labor to allow for the identification of the effect of social norms net of individual preferences. Empirical results support the predictions of a household formation model where less egalitarian social norms decrease the supply of men in the household market by increasing a man`s cost of providing household labor. Both men and women living in more egalitarian countries have, everything else equal, a higher probability of forming a household. Furthermore, consistent with the theory, individual attitudes run opposite to social norms for the case of women. Whereas ceteris paribus a more egalitarian woman has a lower probability of forming a household, a woman living in a more egalitarian country has, everthing else equal, a higher probability of forming a household. |
| Keywords: | Household formation, Marriage markets, Division of household labor, Household specialization, Social norms |
| JEL: | D13 J0 J1 J2 Z13 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:325&r=dev |
| By: | Jann Lay (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany); George Michuki M’Mukaria (GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies); Toman Omar Mahmoud (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Engagement in non-agricultural activities in rural areas can be classified into survival-led or opportunity-led. Survival-led diversification would decrease inequality by increasing the incomes of poorer households and thus reduce poverty. By contrast, opportunity-led diversification would increase inequality and have a minor effect on poverty, as it tends to be confined to non-poor households. Using data from Western Kenya, we confirm the existence of the differently motivated diversification strategies. Yet, the poverty and inequality implications differ somewhat from our expectations. Our findings indicate that in addition to asset constraints, rural households also face limited or relatively risky high-return opportunities outside agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Income diversification, non-agricultural activities, inequality, poverty, sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya |
| JEL: | Q12 O17 I31 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:48&r=dev |
| By: | Nicolaas Groenewold (UWA Business School, University of Western Australia); Guoping Lee (School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University); Anping Chen (School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports an investigation of the spillover effects of output shocks between regions in China. We use a six-region classification first suggested about two decades ago which still captures relatively homogeneous regions. The six regions are: South East, Changjiang River, Yellow River, North East, South West and North West. We start from a recent paper by Groenewold, Lee and Chen (2005b) which uses the same six regions and a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. They find that the spillover effects are crucially dependent on the order of the variables in the model and argue that this is due to common national influences. They overcome the “ordering problem” by purging the regional outputs of their common national components using a preliminary regression of regional outputs on national output. We implement an alternative solution to the ordering problem which does not involve this two-step procedure. We proceed by including national output directly into our model. Moreover, we extend their analysis by investigating Granger causality between regional and national output measures as well as block exogeneity. Our results confirm important conclusions of the earlier paper but also raise some interesting differences. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:06-25&r=dev |
| By: | Nicolaas Groenewold (UWA Business School, University of Western Australia); Guoping Lee (School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University); Anping Chen (School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University) |
| Abstract: | In China inter-regional per capita output disparities are large and persistent and increasingly a matter for policy concern at the highest levels of government. Interregional spillovers are an important ingredient in the design of regional development policy. Yet little is known about the direction, magnitude and timing of output spillovers from one region to another. In this paper we focus on spillovers from policy shocks. We use a conventional three-region disaggregation of the Chinese economy and extend existing literature by explicitly introducing policy variables into a VAR model of regional outputs. We find that both policy variables have significant and positive effects on output in each of the regions when entered separately. In the short run both policy variables have a greater effect on the coastal region than on the other two and the effect in the central region is larger than in the western region, giving some credence to the common presumption that at least part of the expenditure boosts in the poorer inland regions find their way to the coastal provinces. These results are generally confirmed when we use the whole model to simulate the effects over time of the policy shocks. A shock to the coastal region not only has no beneficial spillovers to the other regions but actually depresses the output of the inland provinces. This is also true of a shock to the central region which comes at the expense of the western region. Only the western region has consistent positive spillovers on the other regions; looked at another way, a boost to the western region is shifted partially to the other regions. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:06-26&r=dev |
| By: | Andrew Williams |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a new indicator of bureaucratic quality is developed that has extensive coverage across countries (175) and time (1960-2000), based on data collection from the World Development Indicators and the International Finance Statistics databases. Both anecdotal and econometric evidence suggest this new indicator could prove a useful institutional tool for empirical researchers, particularly with respect to panel data analyses. |
| Keywords: | bureaucracy, institutional quality, economic growth |
| JEL: | O17 O47 P14 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:06-31&r=dev |
| By: | Facchini, Giovanni; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Silva, Peri; Willmann, Gerald |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the trade policy response of Latin American governments to the rapid growth of China and India in world markets. To explain higher protection in sectors where a large share is imported from these countries, we extend the `protection for sale' model to allow for different degrees of substitutability between domestically produced and imported varieties. The extension suggests that higher levels of protection towards Chinese goods can be explained by high substitutability between domestically produced goods and Chinese goods, whereas lower levels of protection towards goods imported from India can be explained by low substitutability with domestically produced goods. The data supports the extension to the `protection for sale' model, which performs better than the original specification in terms of explaining Latin America's structure of protection. |
| Keywords: | Latin America, Protectionism |
| JEL: | F10 F11 F13 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5536&r=dev |
| By: | Staley, Mark |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a scale-invariant model of endogenous growth built on the premise that delays in the diffusion of technologies allow innovators to capture temporary rents. The economy consists of two sectors: a final goods sector that follows constant returns to scale, and an innovative capital sector consisting of a large number of price-taking firms that convert raw capital into homogeneous capital goods. A process of selection drives both the diffusion of innovations and the accumulation of capital. The paper shows that by reversing the roles of capital and labour the model can also be used to describe the pre-industrial economy. This observation leads to the suggestion of a mechanism by which the growth rates of income and population were linked during the industrial revolution. |
| Keywords: | endogenous; growth; selection; Schumpeterian; competition; pre-industrial; innovation |
| JEL: | O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3106&r=dev |
| By: | Amegashie, J. Atsu; Ouattara, Bazoumanna; Strobl, Eric |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of a donor’s choice of the composition of unrestricted and in-kind/restricted transfers to a recipient and how this composition is adjusted in response to changes in the moral hazard behavior of the recipient. In-kind or restricted transfers may be used, among others, to control a recipient’s moral hazard behavior but may be associated with deadweight losses. Within the context of foreign aid, we use a canonical political agency model to construct a simple signaling game between a possibly corrupt politician in a recipient country and a donor to illustrate the donor’s optimal choice of tied (restricted) and untied foreign aid. We clarify the condition under which a reduction in the recipient’s moral hazard behavior (i.e., improvement in the level of governance) leads to a fall in the proportion of tied aid. We test the predictions of our theoretical analysis using data on the composition of foreign aid by multilateral and bilateral donors. |
| Keywords: | tied foreign aid; governance; moral hazard; political agency; restricted transfer. |
| JEL: | F35 D73 I38 |
| Date: | 2007–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:3158&r=dev |
| By: | Rafael Perez Ribas (International Poverty Centre, United Nations Development Programme); Ana Flávia Machado (Center for Development and Regional Planning (Cedeplar), UFMG) |
| Abstract: | Although many studies have addressed poverty in Brazil, very few of them have analyzed the dynamic nature of this phenomenon. In order to fill this gap, this Working Paper seeks to identify the features that determine the permanence of poverty and the downward mobility into poverty of adults in urban areas. Due to the scarcity of Brazilian panel surveys, we use a ‘pseudo-panel’ obtained from PNAD, a cross-sectional National Household Survey. The probabilities of staying in states (poor or non-poor) and changing states (such as from poor to non-poor) are estimated with a bivariate probit for grouped data. Our analysis distinguishes between persistent and observed components that can condition the probability of being poor and helps identify the groups that are particularly affected by either transient or chronic poverty. We find that between 1995 and 2003, 73 per cent of urban relative poverty in Brazil was chronic and most of this level was due to an initial persistent condition of poverty. In other words, most poor people are subject to poverty mainly because of their past persistent condition of poverty. These findings suggest that an effective policy of reducing poverty should involve not only a systematic multi-sectoral approach, such as improving human capital and the access to public services, but also an extensive programme of income redistribution. |
| Keywords: | Chronic Poverty and Transient,State Persistence and State Transition, Endogenous Switching Probit Model, Pseudo-panel, Brazil |
| JEL: | C35 C51 L32 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:wpaper:0036&r=dev |
| By: | Gregory C. Chow (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | After describing the institutions for health care in China as they evolved since 1949, this paper presents statistical demand functions for health care. It applies the demand functions to explain the rapid increase in health care demand and the resulting rapid increase in price when supply failed to increase. The failure in increase in supply was traced to the system of public supply of healthcare in China. The reform experience of Suqian city in the privatization of healthcare is reported to demonstrate the positive effect of privatization on supply. The government’s health care program for the urban and rural population is described and an evaluation of it is provided. |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:132chow&r=dev |
| By: | Gregory C. Chow (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the economic conditions of rural China regarding poverty. By dividing the problem of rural poverty into three components it explains why rural poverty is China’s No. 1 economic problem in spite of the significant improvement in the living standard of the rural population. After discussing the solution proposed by the Chinese government it raises two policy questions, one concerning a proposal to eliminate the operational functions of township governments in the streamlining of the local government structure and the second on the possibility of controlling the abuse of power by local party officials that infringes on the rights of the farmers. A comparison with the conditions in India is provided. |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:134chow&r=dev |
| By: | Anne Case (Princeton University); Angus Deaton (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a descriptive account of health and economic status in India and South Africa – countries in very different positions in the international hierarchy of life expectancy and income. The paper emphasizes the lack of any simple and reliable relationship between health and wealth between and within our sites in rural Rajasthan, in a shack township outside of Cape Town, and in a rural South African site that, until 1994, was part of a Bantustan. Income levels across our sites are roughly in the ratio of 4:2:1, with urban South Africa richest and rural Rajasthan poorest, while ownership of durable goods, often used as a short-cut measure or check of living standards, are in the ratio of 3:2:1. These differences in economic status are reflected in respondents’ own reports of financial status. People know that they are poor, but appear to adapt their expectations to local conditions, at least to some extent. The South Africans are taller and heavier than the Indians—although their children are no taller at the same age. South African self-assessed physical and mental health is no better, and South Africans are more likely to report that they have to miss meals for lack of money. In spite of differences in incomes across the three sites, South Africans and Indians report a very similar list of symptoms of ill-health. Although they have much lower incomes, urban women in South Africa have fully caught up with black American women in the prevalence of obesity, and are catching up in terms of hypertension. These women have the misfortune to be experiencing many of the diseases of affluence without experiencing affluence itself. |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:rpdevs:case_deaton_health_wellbeing_udaipur_sa_05_%20revisedjan06&r=dev |
| By: | Thomas Farole (London School of Economics); Andrés Rodríguez-Pose (London School of Economics); Michael Storper (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Research on the institutional foundations of economic development emphasizes either rulebound systems of exchange or informal bonds between individuals and within small groups. This corresponds to a classical division in social science, between the forces of society and those of community. This cleavage largely ignores their interactions, which are likely to shape the institutions that underpin economic development in decisive ways. This paper operationalises and tests how the interaction of the forces of community (or social capital) and society (or rules) impact three types of institutions: those involved in problem solving, those that shape microeconomic efficiency and those that influence social policy, across fiftyeight countries. We find that both community and society are important determinants across all institutional domains, and are in many cases mutually reinforcing, but that different specific aspects of community and society are most relevant to different institutional domains. Instrumental associationalism, whether formal or informal, and a robust rules environment are the most important determinants of positive institutional outcomes. |
| Date: | 2007–04–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imd:wpaper:wp2007-12&r=dev |
| By: | Djoni Hartono (Department of Economics, University of Indonesia); D.S. Priyarsono (Bogor Agriculture University); Tien Dung Nguyen (Ministry of Trade, Vietnam); Mitsuo Ezaki (Nagoya University) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is facing the trade liberalization and regional economic integration with several free trade areas, i.e. bilateral FTA, regional FTA and multilateral FTA. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of those international relationships on Indonesian economic growth, poverty and income distribution. By using a Global Computable General Equilibrium (GCGE) model, we made eighteen simulations to analyze the current and the potential international relationship that is faced by Indonesia. Generally, Indonesia gains significant benefit in terms of real GDP, output and welfare except FTA with India. FTA also increases the household income of rural group higher than the urban group ones. Unskilled labor experiences more advantages than skilled labor and poor household gain more benefit than the rich household both in rural and urban areas. Those conditions imply that FTA potentially could be a solution for national poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | Economic integration, Indonesia |
| JEL: | F15 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:200703&r=dev |
| By: | Sambit Bhattacharyya (RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia) |
| Abstract: | What is the root cause of Africa’s current state of under-development? Is it the long history of slave trade, or the legacy of extractive colonial institutions, or the fallout of malaria? A precise answer still eludes us. This paper investigates the relative contribution of these historical factors using an instrumental variable approach. The results show that malaria matters the most and all other factors are statistically insignificant. The mechanism through which malaria impacts economic performance is demonstrated by a strong negative relationship between malaria and national savings and a two period overlapping generation model. The model shows that high malaria incidence adversely affects growth by increasing both mortality and morbidity. Increased mortality from malaria induces households to increase current consumption and save less for the future. Increased morbidity on the other hand adversely affects labour productivity. The combined impact of these two effects is a slowdown of capital accumulation and economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Malaria; Colonial Institutions; Slave Trade; Economic Development |
| JEL: | O11 O41 O57 N0 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:200704&r=dev |
| By: | Andrea Conte (Max Planck Institute of Economics Jena, Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Group); Marco Vivarelli |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the impact of the international transfer of embodied technological change on the employment evolution of skills in a sample of low and middle income countries (LMICs). A large body of literature has already underlined the occurrence of widening wage and employment differentials between skilled and unskilled workers in high-income countries (HICs) (Katz and Autor, 1999). Such empirical evidence is consistent with both trade- and technology-based explanations while these competing theoretical frameworks predict opposite effects on within- country inequality in LMICs. Recent analytical advancements have found convergent elements between these two lines of research, especially in the prediction of the employment impact of technology transfer. However, a systematic lack of data in LMICs still hampers empirical research on the determinants of the witnessed increase in inequality in these economies. This paper provides a direct measure of technology transfer from HICs, that is from those economies which have already experienced the occurrence of skillbiased technological change, to LMICs. GMM techniques are applied to an original panel dataset comprising 28 manufacturing sectors for 23 countries over a decade. Econometric results provide direct robust evidence of the absolute skill-bias effect of technology import in LMICs which, therefore, represents an important determinant of the growing divide between skilled and unskilled workers in these countries. |
| Keywords: | Skill Biased Technological Change, capital trade, GMM estimation, General Industrial Statistics, World Trade Analyzer |
| JEL: | F16 J23 J24 O30 |
| Date: | 2007–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-009&r=dev |
| By: | Jocelyn E. Finlay (PGDA, Harvard School of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | In a two period overlapping generations model of endogenous longevity and economic growth, individuals choose to invest in health and education. The investments are costly in terms of foregone first period consumption and the benefit is in the second period where health has the effect of increasing the probability of survival, and education investment will bring higher income. These investments are risky as survival through period two, when the payoffs can be had, is not certain. Individuals with varying degrees of risk aversion will choose the ordering in which they invest in health and education. It is only when investment in education is achieved that an economy will experience endogenous growth. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous Longevity, Endogenous Growth, Health, Risk |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:0706&r=dev |
| By: | David E. Bloom; David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | Debates over the economic effects of demographic change have been raging for over 200 years. Since Thomas Malthus hypothesised in 1798 that rapid population growth would stretch the earth’s resources beyond the breaking point, leading to mass starvation and death, demographers and economists have argued: first, about whether this would come to pass, and then, about why it did not. More recently, discussions about population size have given way to theories suggesting population age structure and health status are key demographic determinants of economic progress. In this brief summary of the impacts of population change on macroeconomic performance, we first set out some key facts about the world’s population. We discuss the effects of improvements in population health on economic development in general, before focusing more specifically on demographic effects. We then trace the history of how Malthusian pessimism gave way to population “optimism”, which argued that rapid population growth could be an economic asset, and then to a “neutralist” view, which posited that population growth neither promoted nor impeded economic growth. Next, we examine how new ideas on the impact of population age structure and population health have challenged traditional thinking. Finally, we look at the policy implications of this finding – in particular, at how economies can reap the benefits of a baby boom and prepare for population ageing. |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:0806&r=dev |
| By: | Rod Tyers; Jane Golley (College of Business and Economics, Australian National University) |
| Keywords: | Chinese economy, demographic change, labour market and economic growth |
| JEL: | C68 E27 F21 F43 J11 J13 J26 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:1106&r=dev |
| By: | Rod Tyers; Jane Golley (College of Business and Economics, Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | China's economic growth has, hitherto, depended on its relative abundance of production labour and its increasingly secure investment environment. Within the next decade, however, China's labour force will begin to contract. This will set its economy apart from other developing Asian countries where relative labour abundance will increase, as will relative capital returns. Unless there is a substantial change in population policy, the retention of China's large share of global FDI will require further improvements in its investment environment. These linkages are explored using a new global demographic model that is integrated with an adaptation of the GTAP-Dynamic global economic model in which regional households are disaggregated by age and gender. Interest premia are integral with projections made using these models and in this paper their influence on China's economic growth performance is investigated under alternative assumptions about fertility decline and labour force growth. China's share of global investment is found to depend sensitively on both its labour force growth and its interest premium though the results suggest that a feasible continuation of financial reforms will be sufficient to compensate for a slowdown and decline in its labour force. |
| Keywords: | Chinese economy, demographic change, investment risk and economic growth |
| JEL: | C68 E22 E27 F21 F43 J11 |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:1206&r=dev |
| By: | Marcella Alsan; David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health); David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health); Dean Jamison |
| Abstract: | This chapter goes beyond the traditional economic thinking about the relationship between health and income – simply stated: wealth is needed to achieve health – by presenting evidence that population health is an important factor in strengthening economies and reducing poverty. The world's overarching framework for reducing poverty is expressed in the UN's eight Millennium Development Goals. Three of these eight goals pertain to health: reducing child mortality, improving maternal health, and combating HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases. These potentially huge improvements in health are extremely important goals in themselves, and they serve as beacons toward which numerous development efforts are oriented. But these potential improvements in health are not only endpoints that we seek through a variety of means. The improvements are actually instruments for achieving economic growth and poverty reduction. That is, better health does not have to wait for an improved economy; measures to reduce the burden of disease, to give children healthy childhoods, to increase life expectancy will in themselves contribute to creating healthier economies. |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:1306&r=dev |
| By: | David Canning; Ajay Mahal; Kunle Odumosu; Prosper OkonkwoZhiwei (Harvard School of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | We assess the impact of HIV/AIDS on individuals’ health care utilization and spending in the Oyo and Plateau states of Nigeria and income foregone from work time lost. Data was from a 2004 survey of nearly 1,500 households, including 482 individuals living with HIV/AIDS. Estimating the effect of HIV is complicated by the fact that our sample of HIV positive individuals is non-random; there are selection effects, both in acquiring HIV, and in being in our sample our HIV positive people, which was based on contacts through non-governmental organizations. To overcome this selection effect, we compare HIV positive people with a control group with similar observed characteristics, using propensity score matching. The matched control group has very different health and economic outcomes than a random sample of the population indicating that our HIV sample would not have had "average" outcomes even if they had not acquired HIV. HIV is associated with significantly increased morbidity, health care utilization, public health facility use, lost work time and increased time devoted to care-giving relative to outcomes in the control group. Direct health care costs and indirect income loss per HIV positive individual were 16,569 Naira, about 32% of annual income per capita in affected households. About 40% of these costs are income losses associated with sickness and care-giving. 15% of the cost of HIV is accounted for by public subsidies on health. The largest single economic cost, representing 45% of the total economic burden of HIV, are out of pocket expenses, mainly for health care. |
| Keywords: | HIV, Nigeria, Economic Impacts, Households, Direct Costs, Propensity Score |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:1606&r=dev |
| By: | Jocelyn E. Finlay (PGDA, Harvard School of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | The role of health in economic development is analyzed via two channels: the direct labor productivity effect and the indirect incentive effect. The labor productivity hypothesis asserts that individuals who are healthier have higher returns to labor input. This is well tested in the empirical literature with mixed conclusions. The incentive effect is borne of the theoretical literature, and individuals who are healthier and have a greater life expectancy will have the incentive to invest in education as the time horizon over which returns can be earned is extended. Education is the driver of economic growth, and thus health plays an indirect role. Accounting for the simultaneous determination of the key variables - growth, education, fertility - the results show that the indirect effect of health is positive and significant. Without recognition of the indirect role of health the economic benefits of health improvements are underestimated. |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:2107&r=dev |
| By: | Yoko Akachi; David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health) |
| Abstract: | Most of the variation in height across countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is due to fixed effects, however, we find that variations in cohort height over time are sensitive to changes in infant mortality rate, GDP per capita, and protein intake, both at birth and in adolescence. |
| Keywords: | Infant Mortality, Nutrition, Women’s Height, Stature, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdm:wpaper:2207&r=dev |
| By: | Orbeta, Aniceto C. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between household savings and family size. Household savings are important indicators for family welfare not only in terms of its investment and income generation prospects but also, and perhaps more importantly given pervasive borrowing constraints and limited social security coverage, because it provides protection from income shortfalls. Descriptive and multivariate evidence on the relationship of household savings and family size are provided. The endogeneity of family size in the household savings equation, as argued for in the old-age security hypothesis, is properly considered by using instrumental variables estimation technique. The paper uses a recent nationally representative household survey in the analysis. The results show that, on average, the impact of additional children on household savings is negative and that the impact is regressive. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, family size, household savings |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2006-14&r=dev |
| By: | Dueñas-Caparas, Maria Teresa S. |
| Abstract: | The paper determines the factors affecting the export performance of firms in three main manufacturing sectors in the Philippines. Specifically, firm-level characteristics like firm size, firm age, and foreign affiliation are identified and statistically tested to determine if it affects a firm’s capability to export. The study uses a novel econometric model which specifically addresses fractional response behavior and estimates the model using a modified quasi-maximum likelihood procedure. Among the firm-level characteristics tested, foreign affiliation has the most prominent influence on a firm’s propensity to export. |
| Keywords: | export determinant, firm-level characteristics, technology factors |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2006-18&r=dev |
| By: | Singh, Satyajit |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the different paradigms of decentralization for drinking water supply in the Philippines and its effectiveness in poverty alleviation. As centralization and decentralization are not definitive concepts but defining features, there are bound to be different pathways to decentralization. Indeed, within a defined national path, there could be different ideological constructs of decentralization. These different paradigms create different institutional arrangements that are situated in the specific ideological construct of the time and place of its creation. With a shift in paradigm, say from one that can be classified as deconcentration to another that can be called democratic devolution, there would be key changes in the institutional designs for service provision. These different institutional designs of decentralization have different outcomes in the common quest for poverty alleviation. Empirical evidence points out that while new institutions would come up for fresh projects, the existing programs and projects that were crafted from an earlier paradigm continue at the same time. If the paradigm change has moved forward on the decentralization axis, then the adoption of newer institutions would have a better outcome in poverty alleviation. This paper calls for due attention of policymakers to address the concern of institutional transformation as one moves toward more progressive decentralization paradigms. The empirical evidence is provided from the Central Visayas Water and Sanitation Project from the province of Oriental Negros. |
| Keywords: | decentralization, drinking water, Oriental Negros, paradigms of decentralization, decentralization and service delivery, institutions and development, institutional design for decentralization, linkages between drinking water and poverty, politics of decentralization |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2006-19&r=dev |
| By: | Ballesteros, Marife Magno; dela Cruz, Alma |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of land reform and land transfer actions of farmer beneficiaries on land ownership concentration. A case study of two rice-growing villages was used to track down ownership changes over a period of time. Land reform has succeeded in the break up of huge estates in rice-growing villages but has not effectively improved land ownership concentration due to evasions tactics of landlords who have retained a significant portion of lands to the family through land schemes that are apparently legitimate under the land reform laws. Land transfer actions of farmer beneficiaries have not necessarily worsen the current land ownership concentration but in the absence of progressive land tax, these actions can lead to widening land concentration. |
| Keywords: | land reform, land ownership concentration, land ownership consolidation |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2006-21&r=dev |
| By: | Lim, Joseph |
| Abstract: | <br>This study resulted from UNDP’s interest in the Philippine proposal for debt-to-MDG financing presented to the United Nations in September 2005. It is based on an analysis of the problem and the processes involved as well as consultations with key Philippine stakeholders, and views of creditor countries. One of the salient points of the study is the need to improve the Philippines’ performance to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets. The Philippines lags behind in terms of achieving the 2015 MDG targets as compared with her neighbors. There is obviously a need to hasten and broaden activities, projects, and programs that will quickly address the problems. Another key point is the large gaps in financing the attainment of the MDG targets in 2006-2015. Although the enactment of new tax measures eased the fiscal situation starting in 2006, the additional fiscal resources are still inadequate to fully cover MDG resource requirements.</br> <br>Bridging the MDG financing gaps calls for policies geared toward improving income and employment generation as well as the savings mobilization of Filipinos. The study suggests policies to promote equitable distribution of income and wealth to improve the MDGs substantially and reduce the MDG financing needs. It also proposes concrete recommendations to mobilize and safeguard MDG financing as well as policies for debt reduction or debt conversion to MDG financing.</br> |
| Keywords: | millennium development goal (MDG), MDG financing, MDG projects and programs, financing gap, debt reduction, debt conversion, debt management |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2006-23&r=dev |
| By: | Llanto, Gilberto M.; Laviña, Gabrielle Roanne |
| Abstract: | <br>The paper reviews the innovations developed by some financial institutions to meet the challenges of microfinance and rural finance markets. Innovations could be new products and methodologies or refinements to existing practices that are created in response to market inefficiencies and changing demands of a target clientele. Essentially, innovations by financial institutions are not only a means to reach the large unserved poor households but also to provide more and better products and services that could contribute to increasing profitability of the institutions adopting them.</br> <br>The first type is innovations on the financial system which refers to changes in the structure of the financial sector particularly in the legal and regulatory framework. The second type of innovation is institutional innovation which deals with the changes in the structure, organization, and legal form of the institution. Another type of innovation is the process innovation. This refers to the introduction of new business processes leading to increased efficiency or market expansion (most often associated with technological progress). The last type of innovations is products innovation which refers to the introduction of new or modified products or services tailored to the needs of the rural borrowers.</br> |
| Keywords: | microfinance, rural finance, innovation, institutional innovation, products innovation, process innovation, systemic level of innovation, scarcity of collateral, leasing |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2006-24&r=dev |