nep-dev New Economics Papers
on Development
Issue of 2007‒01‒14
thirty-two papers chosen by
Jeong-Joon Lee
Towson University

  1. Productive Structure and Income Distribution: the Brazilian Case. By Guilherme Moreira; Leandro De Oliveira Almeida; Joaquim Jose Martins Guilhoto; Carlos Roberto Azzoni
  2. Human Capital and Growth of High- and Low-Skilled Jobs in Cities By Jens Suedekum
  3. Regional Vulnerability : The Case of East Asia By Mody, Ashoka; Taylor, Mark P.
  4. From Growth Spurts to Sustained Growth By Gonçola Monteiro; Alvaro Pereira
  5. Trade Potential in SAFTA: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model By Mustafizur Rahman; Wasel Bin Shadat; Narayan Chandra Das
  6. Skilled migration and growth. Testing brain drain and brain gain theories By José Luis Groizard; Joan Llull
  7. Does Africa Really Benefit from Trade? By Matthias Busse; José Luis Groizard
  8. Technology Trade in Economic Development By Matthias Busse; José Luis Groizard
  9. Microfinance as Business By David Roodman; Uzma Qureshi
  10. The Role of Public Infraestructure in Market Development in Rural Peru By Escobal, Javier
  11. Rethinking the Role of Agriculture and Agro-Industry in the Economic Development of Thailand: Input-Output and CGE Analyses (Ph.D. Dissertation) By Thaiprasert, Nalitra
  12. The Impact of Migration on Foreign Trade: A Developing Country Approach By Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier; Ehrlich, Laura
  13. Trade, Envy and Growth: International Status Seeking in a Two-Country World By Valente, Simone
  14. Impact evaluation: the experience of the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank By White, Howard
  15. Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Development in Pakistan [1960-2002] By Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam
  16. Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows (FCI) on GDP Growth in Pakistan [1975-2004] By Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam
  17. Federalism and economic development in India:An assessment By Singh, Nirvikar; Srinivasan, T.N.
  18. Services-led industrialization in India: Assessment and lessons By Singh, Nirvikar
  19. The theoretical aspect of Muhammad Yunus’s dream-'putting poverty in museums' By Zaman, Md Monowaruz
  20. Accounting for the Current Account Behavior in ASEAN-5 By Lau, Evan; Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi; Habibullah, Muzafar Shah
  21. The Long-run Effects of HIV/AIDS in Kenya By Bruhns, Ramona
  22. Heterogeneous Convergence By Young, Andrew; Higgins, Matthew; Levy, Daniel
  23. Young single motherhood : contested notions of motherhood and sexuality in policy discourses/program interventions By MULONGO, E.M.N.
  24. Physical public infrastructure and private sector output/productivity in Uganda: a firm level analysis By MUSISI, A.A.
  25. AIDS, freedom and the moral community of citizens in Southern Africa By O'LAUGHLIN, B.
  26. Children, childhood and migration By HUIJSMANS, R.
  27. Domestic violence and dowry: evidence from a south Indian village By SRINIVASAN, S.; BEDI, A.S.
  28. Regional varieties of capitalism': inter-firm relations and access to finance in Satun (Thailand) and Perlis (Malaysia) By Andriesse, E.
  29. A Versus K Revisited: Evidence from Selected MENA Countries By Aamer Abu-Qarn; Suleiman Abu-Bader
  30. Mobility of the Chinese Urban Poor - A Case Study of Hefei City By Zhong-Ren Peng; Yi Zhu; Shunfeng Song
  31. Efficiency and Technology Gap in China's Agriculture: A Regional META-Frontier Analysis By Zhuo Chen; Shunfeng Song
  32. The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect: A Survey of Empirical Evidence By Josip Tica; Ivo Družić

  1. By: Guilherme Moreira; Leandro De Oliveira Almeida; Joaquim Jose Martins Guilhoto; Carlos Roberto Azzoni
    Abstract: This study deals with the impacts of structural changes on income distribution in Brazil in the period 1992-2002. A Pure Leontief Model and a Leontief-Miazawa Model were utilized to portray the structure of the economy in both years, and to perform counterfactual simulations on some important changes occurring during the period. The methodology allowed for the identification of the high and low inequality sectors in both years, and to their contribution to the increasing inequality during the period. It is interesting to notice that some sectors with low internal inequality ended-up provoking increased global inequality through their interaction pattern with other sectors in the economy,and through the consumption structure. The results also indicate that the change in sectoral shares in the period contributed to diminishing inequality. Therefore, the causes for increasing inequality remains within the distribution of wages within the sectors.
    Date: 2006–08
  2. By: Jens Suedekum
    Abstract: In this paper I analyze the impact of initial human capital on subsequent city employment growth for the case of West Germany (1977-2002). I find robust evidence that skilled local areas have grown stronger than unskilled ones. But this observed positive relation need not indicate a localized human capital externality. A large initial share of highly skilled workers significantly reduces subsequent growth of high-skilled jobs. The observed positive impact on total employment growth is, thus, due to the fact that the positive effect on low- and medium-skilled jobs outweighs the negative effect on high-skilled employment. This evidence is in line with complementarities among skill groups as the major causal link between human capital and regional employment growth. It challenges theories of self-reinforcing spatial concentration of highly skilled workers in cities due to strong localized external effects.
    Date: 2006–08
  3. By: Mody, Ashoka (International Monetary Fund); Taylor, Mark P. (University of Warwick and Centre for Economic Policy Research)
    Abstract: In a case study of six East Asian economies, we use dynamic factor analysis to estimate a regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional financial stress. The extent to which this indicator is explained by regional economic and financial factors is interpreted as regional vulnerability to crisis. We find that regional external liabilities and exuberance in domestic stock and credit markets, as well as the US high yield spread, were positively correlated with regional vulnerability. Individual country EMPIs are also explained by regional factors, with country-specific factors and trade linkages playing little role.
    Keywords: currency crisis ; contagion ; vulnerability ; dynamic factor analysis
    JEL: F31 F32 F36
    Date: 2006
  4. By: Gonçola Monteiro; Alvaro Pereira
    Abstract: The recent literature on unified growth theory has shed new light on the transition to sustained economic growth. Nevertheless, unified growth theory has not devoted a lot of attention to the nature of economic growth and its impact in the transition from Malthus to Solow. This research presents new evidence on the existence of pre-industrial growth spurts and provides new foundations concerning the nature of economic growth during the Malthus to Solow transition. Following previous research in unified growth theory, sustained economic growth arises due to complementarities between the triple engines of growth of technological development, human capital and the organization of the workplace. In this research, growth spurts are an intrinsic feature of the economy, but throughout history their effect on standards of living is mostly temporary. The rise in living standards only becomes sustained when the complementarity of the triple engines of growth emerges. In Malthusian economies, most technologies were basic and only require straightforward knowledge or human capital, and thus the skill-technology complementarity did not play a role in their development. As a consequence, most technological developments in Malthusian economies generated growth spurts that did not become sustained, although there was a temporary increase in standards of living. However, the increasing complexity of the epistemic knowledge base reported by the historical literature meant that investments in applied technology were progressively more significant, enhancing the role of human capital. After a certain threshold of the knowledge base was surpassed, more and more complex applied technologies were developed, and growth spurts became permanent features of the economy. This research thus captures some of the most important historical features concerning the nature of growth in the transition to sustained economic growth.
    Keywords: Growth spurts, unified growth theory, sustained economic growth
    JEL: O10 O33 O40
    Date: 2006–12
  5. By: Mustafizur Rahman; Wasel Bin Shadat; Narayan Chandra Das
    Abstract: The present paper investigates the trade creation and trade diversion effects of a number of RTAs, with special focus on the SAFTA, by using a gravity model. Apart from the traditional gravity variables, the model is augmented by some other import variables (e.g. bilateral exchange rate, bilateral free trade agreement). To capture the individual country effect, along with the impact of overall RTA, a set of additional dummy variable has been introduced. The model developed in this paper is estimated by using panel data approach with country-pair specific as well as year specific fixed effects. Two stages estimation technique is deployed to arrive at the estimates. The first stage is estimated using Tobit Model, while OLS is applied in the second stage. The study finds significant intra-bloc export creation in SAPTA; however, at the same time there is evidence of net export diversion in the SAPTA. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan are expected to gain from joining the RTA, while Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka are likely to be negatively affected. Among the other RTAs covered under the present study, AFTA, NAFTA, SADC, MERCOSUR, CAN, EAC are associated with intra-bloc export creation and net export diversion. EU and Bangkok agreement (APTA) are found to be intra-bloc export diverting and net export diverting. BIMSTEC is found to be intra-bloc export diverting but there is no evidence of net export creation or diversion. Although none of the RTAs covered by the study was found to be net export creating, more than one third of the members of these RTAs are found to be positively affected by joining the RTAs.
    Keywords: Trade potential, SAFTA, RTA, Gravity Model, Bangladesh, India, Pakisthan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives
    Date: 2006–12
  6. By: José Luis Groizard (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Joan Llull (Universitat de les Illes Balears)
    Abstract: The economic effects of the migration of skilled workers from developing countries are highly controversial in the theoretical literature. Traditional models on the brain drain phenomenon stress the negative impact on growth, while new models introduce the possibility of a brain gain for labor exporting economies through indirect channels (i.e. increased incentives for those individuals left behind to accumulate human capital), or direct channels (such as remittances, return migration or FDI and trade linkages). Using a new dataset on the educational level of the migration workforce into the OECD, we test the hypothesis of brain gain estimating a growth equation and a human capital equation. We reject the hypothesis of brain gain in all the cases. The results confirm that countries which export high skilled labor to rich economies tend to have a lower level of human capital and, hence, worse economic performance.
    Keywords: Human capital formation, international migration, skilled workers, development, source country effects, instrumental variables.
    JEL: C30 F22 J24 O15
    Date: 2006
  7. By: Matthias Busse (Hamburg Institue of International Economics (HWWA)); José Luis Groizard (Universitat de les Illes Balears)
    Abstract: We empirically analyse the impact of trade on income levels in the sub-Saharan Africa countries. The results indicate that the linkage between both variables is negative for these countries. This outcome may explain the negative sign of the Africa dummy in income (or growth) regressions.
    Keywords: Trade, Income Levels, Sub-Saharan Africa.
    JEL: F1 O24 O40
    Date: 2006
  8. By: Matthias Busse (Hamburg Institue of International Economics (HWWA)); José Luis Groizard (Universitat de les Illes Balears)
    Abstract: Recent evidence on the respective contributions of institutions and trade to income levels across countries has demonstrated that – once endogeneity is considered – institutional quality clearly dominates the effect of trade. We argue that overall trade is not the most appropriate measure for technology diffusion as a source of productivity growth and propose to focus on imports of research and development (R&D) intensive goods instead. Overall, we confirm previous findings that institutions matter most and that overall trade is not positively associated with per-capita income levels. Yet this does not hold for technology trade, as there is a positive and significant linkage between technology imports and income levels. This outcome is robust to various model specifications, including an instrumental variable approach.
    Keywords: Growth, Technology Diffusion, Trade, R&D Spillovers.
    JEL: F10 O11 O40
    Date: 2006
  9. By: David Roodman; Uzma Qureshi
    Abstract: We analyze microfinance institutions (MFIs) as businesses, asking how some succeed in covering costs, earning returns, attracting capital, and scaling up. We draw on existing literature and interviews with industry players and academics. Key microfinance business challenges include building volume, keeping loan repayment rates high, retaining customers, and minimizing scope for fraud. Since the 1970s, microfinance innovators have developed clever solutions to these problems. Some have built huge organizations that serve thousands or millions of clients and have demonstrated an impressive capacity for change—in countries, to boot, with weak infrastructure and human capital. The individual innovations have spread both through a Darwinian process of selection and through cultural diffu-sion. We examine three kinds of determinants of commercial success: product design, management, and environmental factors such as regulation. We conclude that much about how microfinance is de-livered can be understood as responses to business imperatives. Indeed, the discoveries of techniques for cost-effective microfinance delivery are the real genius of microfinance, rather than the "discovery" that the poor can repay that dominates its public image. But by Occam's razor (simpler explanations are more plausible), the power of commercial imperatives to explain so many product design choices weakens an alternative explanation for them, namely that they are made primarily to help clients. These doubts point up the need for more rigorous impact evaluations of microfinance.
    Keywords: microfinance
    JEL: O16
    Date: 2006–11
  10. By: Escobal, Javier
    Abstract: This Study provides a conceptual framework to study the impact of rural infrastructure investment in market development and in the enhancement of income generating opportunities for the poor in rural Peru. The study uses descriptive methods and regression analysis together with relatively new impact evaluation techniques, like propensity score matching, to understand the causal paths through which the access to new or improved infrastructure services affect the livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes of rural households. The data sources included in this study include regional time series data, several cross-section household level data sets coming from rural representative Living Standard Measurement Surveys; a household panel data set coming from the same source, together with specialized surveys developed by the author. The analysis shows that there are important complementarities in rural infrastructure investment. That is, even if any particular infrastructure investment (related to roads, electricity, telecommunication, water, or sanitation services) may be subject to diminishing returns, if done in isolation, this effect can be overcome if it is done in combination with other investments. In this way it is possible to get a sustained growth effect on rural incomes from infrastructure investment. The study shows that infrastructure investments reduce transaction costs and enhances the opportunities for spatial arbitrage, paving the way for improving market efficiency. However, the study warns that efficiency and equity gains may not occur simultaneously, because those that are better off in rural areas may obtain higher returns to infrastructure investments because of a larger private asset base or because of a better access to other public infrastructure.
    Keywords: Peru; rural infrastructure; poverty; economic geography; rural roads; impact evaluation; non-agricultural employment
    JEL: I38 D23 R12 Q13 O18
    Date: 2005–04
  11. By: Thaiprasert, Nalitra
    Abstract: Thailand’s economic development has been quite successful in terms of achieving high growth rate and reasonable per capita income. The country’s economic performance in terms of the transformation of production and exports are tending toward the normal pattern of increasing share of manufactured products. However, the major problems Thailand is still facing are the late reduction of its agricultural labor force, inequality that has occurred as a result of the development process, and problems in potential of manufacturing industrial sectors. These three issues are made the main discussions of this dissertation. In addition, structural transformation in Thailand has posed many difficulties for the development of Thai agriculture, which is closely related to the welfare of the poor in the rural areas. Therefore, to tackle income distribution problems directly requires that farmers be given new opportunities. Agro-industry and high value-added agricultural sectors were proposed as the key sectors to improve inequality problems, smoothen employment transformation, generate high growth and induce high output production, and act as a bridge connecting Thai primary agriculture with the modern sectors. Agro-industry was proposed to be promoted in the rural areas for closer input locations, to shift agricultural workers from primary agriculture, to improve the real wage of farmers, and to prevent extensive urban migration. Qualitative analysis, input-output analysis, SAM analysis, and CGE analysis were applied to aid the discussions, prove the hypothesis, and achieve the objective.
    Keywords: Structural transformation; Thai agriculture; Thai agro-industry; Income distribution; Thailand's economic development; Thailand's economic growth; Input-output analysis; SAM analysis; CGE analysis
    JEL: O41 Y4 O4 O21 O11 O24 O13 O1 O14 O2 O18
    Date: 2006–04
  12. By: Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier; Ehrlich, Laura
    Abstract: While the causal relationship between migration and trade has not been studied thoroughly, estimation results of gravity model approach suggest that important aspects determining trade volumes can be missed if additional factors, including migration, are not considered. The current paper aims at testing the impact of migration on foreign trade in a relatively closed small economy. We use the data of Bolivia, for the years 1990–2003. We apply gravity model, adding a migration variable to the explanatory variables. We test the impact of both, immigration and emigration on exports and imports and also on intra-industry trade. We use panel estimation including data of 30 trade partners (selected according to higher trade intensity with Bolivia). We control for the economic size and geographical location of trade partners, and for changes in terms of trade. Previous studies show an increasing effect of immigration on both exports and imports elasticities. Some studies find larger exports elasticity compared to imports elasticity, some vice versa. We could not find any studies on emigration impact on trade. Our results show relatively similar impact of both immigration and emigration on foreign trade. Positive significant effect of immigration on exports and imports is confirmed also in Bolivia, even when the migration flows in Bolivia are not as high as in the case of most countries analyzed previously. We can conclude positive effect of migration flows also on intra-industry trade. In the following analysis, we intend to control for the impact of trade agreements and openness of trade partners. We will also try to broaden the sample of trade partners used in the current estimation and to test the hypotheses on other developing countries.
    Keywords: migration; trade; gravity model; Bolivia
    JEL: C33 F22 F10
    Date: 2006–01–03
  13. By: Valente, Simone
    Abstract: This paper analyzes international status seeking in a two-country model of endogenous growth: utility of agents in developing countries is affected by consumption gaps with the average consumer in advanced economies. By distorting terms of trade, status seeking: (i) may compensate for structural gaps in physical productivity, inducing convergence; (ii) may revert the link between trade and growth; and (iii) induces divergence when interacting with technological catching-up. In particular, envy in conjunction with catching-up predicts switchovers of growth leadership: when the advanced economy is both status- and technology-leader in the short run, convergence in interest rates - e.g. due to R&D spillovers - implies that the initially lagging economy becomes growth-leader in the long run, due to permanent price distortions induced by envy.
    Keywords: Endogenous Growth; International Trade; Consumption Externalities; Productivity Di¤erences; Status Seeking; Technology Diffusion
    JEL: O33 F12 D91
    Date: 2006–07
  14. By: White, Howard
    Abstract: Impact evaluation provides a measure of aid effectiveness, that is how good development aid is at reducing poverty. Critics of aid argue that there have been few attempts to measure its impact. This may have been true in the past, but there is a growing body of literature on impact evaluation. This paper reviews the methodological and practical issues in conducting such studies, drawing on the experience of the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank.
    Keywords: Impact evaluation; aid effectiveness; World Bank
    JEL: O1 O22 O10
    Date: 2006–09
  15. By: Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam
    Abstract: The Two-Gap Model suggests that the Poor countries have to rely on the foreign resources to fill the two Gaps: Import-Export Gap and the Savings-Investment Gap. There are many forms of the foreign resources like FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), External loans & Credit, technical assistance, Project & non-project aid etc. But UDC’s (including Pakistan) don’t have the investment friendly policies. So, they have to rely on the Foreign aid and Debt rather than FDI and portfolio investments. The role of these external resources always remains questionable. This paper analyzes the trends and structure of the foreign aid in Pakistan during 1960-2002 and its role and effectiveness in the economic development in Pakistan.
    Keywords: Foreign capital inflows (FCI); Foreign Aid; Economic Development; Foreign Economic Assistance; Official Development Assistance (ODA); Foreign Debt Burden; Aid and Growth; Trends and Structure of Aid; Aid Effectiveness
    JEL: O11 O1 O19
    Date: 2005–06
  16. By: Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam
    Abstract: The Two-Gap Model suggests that the Poor countries have to rely on the foreign capital inflows (FCI) to fill the two Gaps: Import-Export Gap and the Savings-Investment Gap. There are many forms of the foreign capital inflows like FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), External loans & Credit, technical assistance, Project & non-project aid etc. So, UDC’s (including Pakistan) have to rely on the Foreign aid, Debt FDI and portfolio investments. The role of these external resources (FCI) always remains questionable. This paper analyzes the impact of the foreign capital inflow on GDP Growth in Pakistan during 1975-2004.
    Keywords: Foreign capital inflows (FCI); Foreign Investment; Economic Growth; Foreign Economic Assistance; Official Development Assistance (ODA); Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Foreign Debt Burden; Aid and Growth; FCI Effectiveness.
    JEL: O19 O11 O1
    Date: 2006–06
  17. By: Singh, Nirvikar; Srinivasan, T.N.
    Abstract: This paper examines India’s federal system in the context of prospects for India’s future economic growth and development. After a brief review of India’s recent policy reforms and economic development outcomes, and of the country’s federal institutions, the analysis focuses on the major issues with respect to India’s federal system in terms of their developmental consequences. We examine the impacts of tax assignments, expenditure authority and the intergovernmental transfer system on the following aspects of India’s economy and economic performance: the quality of governance and government expenditure, the efficiency of the tax system, the fiscal health of different tiers of government, and the impacts on growth and on regional inequality. In each case, we discuss recent and possible policy reforms. We make comparisons with China’s federal system where this is instructive for analyzing the Indian case. Finally, we provide a discussion of potential reforms of aspects of India’s federal institutions.
    JEL: H1 H77
    Date: 2006–10
  18. By: Singh, Nirvikar
    Abstract: This paper provides an integrated analysis of the role of the service sector in recent Indian economic development. It discusses the nature of services, their distinction from products, and their categorization. It provides an overview of India’s overall growth experience, and a detailed examination of the contribution of the service sector to growth. It includes an examination of the potential for spillovers from IT, ITES and other service sectors such as financial services, to the rest of the economy, drawing on econometric work, as well as input-output analysis of linkages to understand these possible spillovers and growth potentials. Based on this evidence, it appears that India’s manufacturing sector development may have been constrained in part by weaknesses in key service sectors such as transportation and electricity. The paper also considers the particular role of international trade in services, which is of growing importance. It discusses the consequences for employment of different growth paths, the challenges of education and manpower training to support and sustain India’s development path, and social and environmental issues, including regional inequality issues. The Indian experience is related to recent discussions of industrial policy, and development policy more generally.
    Keywords: Services; industrialization; India; economic development; industrial policy
    JEL: L88 L8 O53 O14
    Date: 2006–11
  19. By: Zaman, Md Monowaruz
    Abstract: The present economy is based on capital based income structure. Grameen Bank has shown how zero capital owners become small capital owners by taking micro-credits. However micro-credit can create very limited economic density in an area that is insufficient to eradicate poverty unless the root causes of poverty are identified and counteracted. Neoclassical economics only focus on presently available capital although the capitalists are not created at once. A natural cycle of economics upholds economic, cultural and social values by its self-corrective nature. The natural economics is overridden by profit-motive institutional structure, where the market is not uniform or equal behaving for all segments of economic agents rather it is distributed as layers of energy states. A prudent utilization of all the opportunities targeting the poorest people of an economy will make benefited all in terms of new values, welfare and employment opportunities etc.
    Keywords: Micro Credit; Povert Alleviation; Social Business; Money-Market Dynamics; Cycle of Economics; Welfare; Grameen Bank; Worker's Share
    JEL: O16 O11 O21
    Date: 2007–01–02
  20. By: Lau, Evan; Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi; Habibullah, Muzafar Shah
    Abstract: Current account are an endogenous variable that contain information about the behavior of the economics agents and is important for economic policymaking as it gives a broad reflection of the stance of macroeconomics policies. The imbalances in current account are a reflection of the forward-looking, dynamic saving and investment decisions in the intertemporal approach to current account modeling. This study empirically analyzed the anatomy of the dynamic current account behavior for the ASEAN-5 countries using present value model. Despite the simplicity, the statistical computations suggest that the agents behave as the forward-looking rational agents in the face of the shocks in the three out of five economies. This implies that the current account acts as a buffer to smooth the consumption in the presence of shock and optimally smoothing its consumption path for these countries.
    Keywords: Current Account; Present Value Model; Consumption Smoothing; Consumption Tilting.
    JEL: F32 O53 E22
    Date: 2007–01–03
  21. By: Bruhns, Ramona
    Abstract: This essay analyzes the long-run economic effects of HIV/AIDS in Kenya, with emphasis on fertility, education and child labor. Human capital, which is built up through formal education and parental child-rearing, is the only input in production. Two aspects are central to the analysis: First, a mature AIDS epidemic causes massive premature adult mortality, thereby destroying existing human capital and reducing the labor force on a large scale. Second, the transmission of human capital to future generations is weakened, as children are left orphaned and surviving adults are correspondingly burdened. As a consequence, per capita income decreases and communities can less afford to raise and educate children as they did before the outbreak of the disease. The underlying theoretical model, in which it is assumed that parents raise and educate children for both financial and altruistic reasons, is calibrated using data for the period 1920 to 2000. The long-run effects of the disease, which depend heavily on parents' expectations about future mortality rates, are estimated for the years 2000-2040. Both human capital and per capita income grow significantly more slowly after the outbreak of the epidemic, while the incidence of child labor doubles for some periods. The level of fertility falls in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak, but can be significantly higher when the epidemic has reached a mature phase, depending on parents' expectations. Governmental interventions in the health sector in the early phase of the epidemic can strongly mitigate its adverse effects.
    Keywords: child labor; growth; fertility; health; epidemic; HIV/AIDS; Kenya;
    JEL: I1 I2 O4 O1
    Date: 2006–11–28
  22. By: Young, Andrew; Higgins, Matthew; Levy, Daniel
    Abstract: We use US county-level data containing 3,058 cross-sectional observations and 41 conditioning variables to study economic growth and explore possible heterogeneity in growth determination across 32 individual states. Using a 3SLS-IV estimation method, we find that the convergence rates for 32 individual states are above 2 percent, with an average of 8.1 percent. For 7 states the convergence rate can be rejected as identical to at least one other state’s convergence rate with 95 percent confidence. Convergence rates are negatively correlated with initial income. The size of government at all levels of decentralization is either unproductive or negatively correlated with growth. Educational attainment has a non-linear relationship with growth. The size of the finance, insurance and real estate, and entertainment industries are positively correlated with growth, while the size of the education industry is negatively correlated with growth. Heterogeneity in the effects of balanced growth path determinants across individual states is harder to detect than in convergence rates.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Conditional Convergence; County Level Data
    JEL: O47 R11 O41
    Date: 2006–10–25
  23. By: MULONGO, E.M.N.
    Keywords: mothers; youth; sexuality; nongovernmental organizations; development programmes; discourse analysis;
    Date: 2006
  24. By: MUSISI, A.A.
    Keywords: physical infrastructure; public works; private sector; productivity; enterprises; Uganda;
    Date: 2006
  25. By: O'LAUGHLIN, B.
    Keywords: AIDS; public health; health policy; liberalism; politics; Southern Africa;
    Date: 2006
  26. By: HUIJSMANS, R.
    Keywords: children; childhood; labour migration; Lao PDR; Thailand;
    Date: 2006
  27. By: SRINIVASAN, S.; BEDI, A.S.
    Keywords: dowry; marriage; women; violence against women; women's status; men; social status; social implications; gender equality; India;
    Date: 2006
  28. By: Andriesse, E.
    Keywords: finance; venture capital; enterprises; networks; Thailand; Malaysia;
    Date: 2006
  29. By: Aamer Abu-Qarn (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev); Suleiman Abu-Bader (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)
    Abstract: This paper reconsiders the A versus K debate, namely, which factor is the leading contributor to economic growth? productivity gains (A) or factor accumulation (K). The growth accounting analysis is conducted for ten Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1960-1998. The long-run share of capital in national income is estimated using cointegration (country-specific) and panel data (region-specific) methods. We find that for most of the countries in our sample the share of capital is much higher than the conventional share of 0.3-0.4. The growth accounting exercise conducted with the incorporation of human capital reveals that for the MENA region the contribution of productivity gains to economic growth is negligible and frequently even detrimental. Thus, we conclude that it is factor (both physical and human) accumulation that drives the economic performance of MENA economies.
    Keywords: Growth Accounting, Productivity and Factor Accumulation, MENA, Middle-East, Cointegration, Panel Data
    JEL: O47 O53 C22 C23
    Date: 2005–07
  30. By: Zhong-Ren Peng (Center for Advanced Spatial Information Research, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee); Yi Zhu (Center for Advanced Spatial Information Research, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee); Shunfeng Song (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Reno)
    Abstract: In a rapid economic development environment with rising income, escalating motorization, and growing urbanization, it is natural for government policies to focus on solving congestion related problems caused by the increased car ownership and usage. The mobility needs of the urban poor have been traditionally neglected in policy and in practice, particularly in developing countries. This paper addresses the mobility challenges the urban poor are facing based on a household travel survey in the City of Hefei in China. It first presents travel behaviors, transportation costs and commuting problems of the urban poor. It then discusses the urban transportation policy implications and examines the prevailing trends of urban transportation policies and plans in Chinese cities. Policy recommendations are suggested to improve the mobility needs of the urban poor.
    Keywords: Urban transportation, poverty, mobility
    JEL: R40 J60
    Date: 2006–12
  31. By: Zhuo Chen (the Chicago Center of Excellence in Health Promotion Economics, The University of Chicago); Shunfeng Song (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Reno)
    Abstract: This paper utilizes a unique county-level dataset to examine technical efficiency and technology gap in China’s agriculture. We classify the counties into four regions with distinctive levels of economic development, and hence production technologies. A meta-frontier analysis is applied to the counties. We find that although the eastern counties have the highest efficiency scores with respect to the regional frontier but the northeastern region leads in terms of agricultural production technology nationwide. Meanwhile, the mean efficiency of the northeastern counties is particularly low, suggesting technology and knowledge diffusion within region might help to improve production efficiency and thus output.
    Keywords: China’s grain production, county-level, metafrontier, stochastic production frontier, technical efficiency
    JEL: D24 N55 O13
    Date: 2006–12
  32. By: Josip Tica (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb); Ivo Družić (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)
    Abstract: The paper surveys empirical evidence on the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect. The survey encompasses the published empirical work on the phenomenon since its (re)discovery in 1964. In total, 58 empirical papers are examined within a specialized analytical framework. The body of empirical evidence is synthesized through four major elements. The analysis starts with the ongoing controversy related to the name of the theory. This is followed by a presentation of the evolution of the theoretical and econometric model. It ends with an analysis of the results of the surveyed empirical studies. Results of the survey indicate that growing body of evidence definitely points towards professional rethinking about the significance of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect.
    Keywords: Harrod Balassa Samuelson effect, real exchange rate, purchasing power parity, productivity
    JEL: E31 F31 F41
    Date: 2006–09–13

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