nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2024‒07‒08
seven papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin

  1. Changing Fertility and Heterogeneous Motherhood Effects: Revisiting the Effects of a Parental Benefits Reform By Fitzenberger, Bernd; Seidlitz, Arnim
  2. Fertility and Family Type in the United States: a Historical Analysis By Luca Pensieroso; Alessandro Sommacal; Gaia Spolverini
  3. Family and career: An analysis across Europe and North America By Luis Guirola; Laura Hospido; Andrea Weber
  4. Delayed Childbearing and Urban Revival: A Structural Approach By Ana Moreno-Maldonado; Clara Santamaria
  5. The Impact of COVID-19 on Abortions in Spain By Sofia Trommlerová; Libertad González
  6. Long Term Care Risk For Couples and Singles By Elena Capatina; Gary Hansen; Minchung Hsu
  7. Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth By Giulio Fella; Martin B. Holm; Thomas Michael Pugh

  1. By: Fitzenberger, Bernd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Seidlitz, Arnim (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)
    Abstract: Using a semiparametric event study approach with a control group, we estimate the effect of motherhood on labor market outcomes in Germany, the child penalty. We further investigate how the 2007 parental benefits reform changed the child penalty while accounting for fertility effects. A large novel data set linking data from two administrative sources provides information on all births. Our estimation approach accounts for motherhood being a staggered treatment. The reform has small positive medium-run effects employment outcomes. It changes the selection into fertility and shows heterogeneous effects. However, the reform did little to reduce the average child penalty.
    Keywords: parental benefit reform, child penalty, semiparametric event study approach
    JEL: J08 J13 J16 J22
    Date: 2024–04
  2. By: Luca Pensieroso (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Alessandro Sommacal (University of Verona); Gaia Spolverini (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: We provide a historical decomposition of fertility in the United States by family type. We find that intergenerational coresidence was systematically associated with lower fertility than nuclear families, with the difference shrinking over time. This pattern is robust to controlling for several demographic and socioeconomic confounders. We build a simple, analytical model and show that a theory featuring both endogenous fertility and endogenous coresidence can rationalise the observed cross-family fertility difference. Simulations from a calibrated dynamic general equilibrium version of the model show that the model has the right qualitative behaviour, and is quantitatively meaningful. Using individual data, we discuss (and dismiss) several potential alternative explanations.
    Date: 2024–05–06
  3. By: Luis Guirola (Banco de España); Laura Hospido (Banco de España, CEMFI and IZA); Andrea Weber (Central European University)
    Abstract: Using data for 17 countries in Europe and North America, we compare the career trajectories of mothers and fathers and of women and men without children across cohorts and at different points in their life cycle. There is wide cross-country variation in employment and earnings gaps at age 30. At age 50, however, employment gaps between mothers and non-mothers have closed in most countries. We also observe convergence in employment gaps between mothers and fathers by age 50, but these gaps do not close altogether. Motherhood gaps in earnings also close by age 50 between mothers and non-mothers, particularly among the highly educated. But there is strong persistence in earnings gaps between mothers and fathers even among highly educated parents. The main reasons for the remaining gaps at later stages in the life-cycle are part-time work among women and fatherhood premia as fathers’ earnings outperform non-fathers’ over their life-cycle.
    Keywords: gender gaps, employment, earnings, children
    JEL: J12 J13 J16 J21 J22
    Date: 2024–05
  4. By: Ana Moreno-Maldonado; Clara Santamaria
    Abstract: Since 1980, college graduates have increasingly sorted into the downtowns of U.S. cities. This led to urban revival, a process that involves fast growth in income and housing prices downtown. Motivated by the observation that young childless households concentrate downtown, we link urban revival to delayed childbearing. As college graduates postpone parenthood, more of them are childless when young and locate downtown. Estimating a dynamic model of fertility timing and within-city location choices, we find delayed childbearing accounts for 52% of urban revival. The impact of changes in fertility choices is amplified by the response of housing prices and amenities.
    Keywords: Residential choice, Fertility Timing, Amenities, Welfare Inequality
    JEL: J13 R21 R23
    Date: 2024–05
  5. By: Sofia Trommlerová; Libertad González
    Abstract: We study changes in abortions in Spain around the first COVID-19 lockdown. We find a large drop of 24% in the number of abortions during and shortly after the strict lockdown in spring 2020. We explore to which extent the fall was driven by fewer (unintended) pregnancies due to social isolation versus harder access to abortion services. We show that the drop was not more pronounced in areas located further away from abortion clinics, nor in locations with more COVID-19 hospitalizations. The fall in abortions was 45% larger among non-cohabiting women (relative to cohabiting women experiencing a 16% decline). We also document a 29% drop in the abortion ratio (abortions over all pregnancies) driven exclusively by non-cohabiting women. Overall, our results suggest that the main driver of the drop in abortions in Spain was a reduction in unintended pregnancies among single women during the lockdown, due to reduced social interactions.
    Keywords: abortion, COVID-19, lockdown, Social interactions, abortion services, fertility
    JEL: J13 I12 I18
    Date: 2024–05
  6. By: Elena Capatina; Gary Hansen; Minchung Hsu
    Abstract: This paper compares the impact of long term care (LTC) risk on single and married households and studies the roles played by informal care (IC), consumption sharing within households, and Medicaid in insuring this risk. We develop a life-cycle model where individuals face survival and health risk, including the possibility of becoming highly disabled and needing LTC. Households are heterogeneous in various important dimensions including education, productivity, and the age difference between spouses. Health evolves stochastically. Agents make consumption-savings decisions in a framework featuring an LTC statedependent utility function. We find that household expenditures increase significantly when LTC becomes necessary, but married individuals are well insured against LTC risk due to IC. However, they still hold considerable assets due to the concern for the spouse who might become a widow/widower and can expect much higher LTC costs. IC significantly reduces precautionary savings for middle and high income groups, but interestingly, it encourages asset accumulation among low income groups because it reduces the probability of meanstested Medicaid LTC.
    Keywords: Long Term Care, Household Risk, Precautionary Savings, Medicaid
    JEL: D91 E21 H31 I10 I38 J14
    Date: 2024–02
  7. By: Giulio Fella; Martin B. Holm; Thomas Michael Pugh
    Abstract: We use administrative data for Norway to estimate an incomplete-market life cycle model of retired singles and couples with a bequest motive, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. We allow the parameters of the bequest utility to differ between households with and without offspring. Our estimates imply a very strong utility of residual wealth (bequest motive), in line with the estimates by Lockwood (2018). The bequest motive accounts for approximately three-quarters of aggregate wealth at age 85. More surprisingly, we estimate similar utility of residual wealth for households with and without offspring. that the utility of residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive.
    Keywords: Economic models; Fiscal policy; Housing; Labour markets
    JEL: D11 D12 D14 E21
    Date: 2024–06

This nep-dem issue is ©2024 by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.