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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Milagros Onofri (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Raquel Fernández (NYU & NBER & CEPR); Azul Menduiña (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0368 |
| By: | Kelsey Q. Wright (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Asli Ebru Şanlitürk (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emily S. Mann |
| Abstract: | Pronatalism — the ideology promoting increased birth rates as a political and civilizational imperative — has experienced a resurgence in U.S. media and policy discourse, yet scholars have long argued it functions as ideological framing rather than evidence-based demographic policy. This study tests that argument directly by examining whether empirical changes in fertility rates predict the volume and tone of pronatalism-adjacent media coverage across politically distinct U.S. outlets. Drawing on age- and race/ethnicity-specific fertility data, alongside article volume and tone data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) over the period 2017-2022, we analyze coverage of four themes—fertility rates, population and demographic change, aging populations, and reproductive and maternal health—across 23 conservative, progressive, and neutral news outlets. Using linear regression models with year fixed effects, we find that changes in fertility rates do not significantly predict article volume for any outlet type or theme. Results for tone are similarly null, with one exception: increases in fertility among women aged 25–44 are significantly associated with more positive coverage of reproductive and maternal health in progressive outlets, likely reflecting political rather than demographic dynamics. The most pronounced shifts in coverage — particularly conservative outlets' dramatically more positive tone following the 2020 election — appear driven by electoral context rather than demographic reality. These findings provide quantitative support for the claim that pronatalist media discourse selectively deploys demographic evidence in order to operate as an ideological regime of truth. |
| Keywords: | USA, fertility, fertility decline, mass media, pronatalism |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-007 |
| By: | Mejía, Leonardo Bonilla; Lopez-Feldman, Alejandro; Tribin Uribe, Ana Maria; Lopez Vera, Stefany |
| Abstract: | Global fertility is declining, yet it remains unclear whether and how climate-related hazards contribute to realized fertility change. This paper combines global fertility data with disaster records for 1950–2023 to estimate fertility responses to climate-related hazards, distinguishing between population disruption (affected-rate exposure) and lethality (death-rate exposure). Climate-related hazards show no systematic fertility response under population disruption but are associated with persistent fertility reductions under lethality lasting at least 15 years. Aggregate climate estimates mask heterogeneity across hazard types: storms and drought-related hazards drive fertility declines, whereas heat and cold waves are associated with modest fertility increases. Hydrological events show additional negative effects in high-lethality episodes. Over time, disruption-based effects remain weak, and lethality-based effects are consistently negative, although they have attenuated in recent decades. Fertility responses vary little across income groups, and non-climate disasters remain fertility-reducing. These results show that fertility responses to climate risk depend on hazard type and lethal severity, rather than on how many people are affected. |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11330 |
| By: | Cevat Giray Aksoy; Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Katelyn Cranney; Steven J. Davis; Mathias Dolls; Pablo Zarate |
| Abstract: | We investigate how fertility relates to work from home (WFH) in the post-pandemic era, drawing on original data from our Global Survey of Working Arrangements and U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. Realized fertility from 2023 to 2025 and future planned fertility are higher among adults who WFH at least one day a week and, for couples, higher yet when both partners do so. Estimated lifetime fertility is greater by 0.32 children per woman when both partners WFH one or more days per week as compared to the case where neither does. The implications for national fertility rates differ across countries due mainly to large differences in WFH rates. In a complementary analysis using other U.S. data before and after the pandemic, one-year fertility rates rise with WFH opportunities in one’s own occupation and, for couples, in the partner’s occupation. |
| Keywords: | remote work, fertility and fertility intentions, global survey, working arrangements |
| JEL: | J13 J22 D13 C83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12533 |
| By: | Rachel Glennerster (University of Chicago Department of Economics and NBER); Joanna Murray (Development Media International); Victor Pouliquen (Paris Dauphine University) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests whether the arrival of mass media triggers a decline in fertility, a central prediction of modernization theory. Using a field experiment, we vary exposure to mass media and its content in a quarter of Burkina Faso. We provide radios to 1, 600 women without previous access to mass media. Half live in status quo areas and half in areas where the local radio station was randomly selected to air a science-based family planning campaign. Contrary to modernization theory and previous literature, gaining access to status quo mass media decreases contraception use by 14 percent and reinforces traditional gender norms. In contrast, receiving a radio in campaign areas boosts contraception use by 16 percent. The campaign also led to a 9 percent reduction in births and a 0.3 standard deviation increase in reported welfare. Reduced belief in misinformation rather than shifts in attitudes and preferences drives the result. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 L82 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-32 |
| By: | Ursula Berresheim |
| Abstract: | The rise of work-from-home (WfH) has become a durable feature of 21st-century labor markets, raising a key question for gender equality: Is WfH a stepping stone or a stumbling block for women’s careers? While WfH could help women reconcile professional and family responsibilities, it may also slow career advancement through productivity losses and lead to stronger specialization in domestic work. To study the short- and long-run macroeconomic implications of an expansion in WfH opportunities, I develop a quantitative general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model calibrated to pre-COVID U.S. data. Couples jointly choose their time allocation between market and domestic work, WfH adoption, and occupation. The model predicts that expanding WfH opportunities strengthens mothers’ careers in the long-run: women’s earnings growth between ages 25 and 40 increases by 7.2 percentage points, and the gender earnings gap narrows by 7.4 percent. Women benefit both from their own and their spouses’ WfH adoption as well as through re-sorting into higher-paying occupations. However, some women experience career losses when working in occupations where WfH entails high productivity penalties. At the aggregate level, welfare rises by 11.1 percent and output by 0.5 percent. Important for the current policy debate, I find short-run losses in women’s earnings from WfH adoption, as occupational choices are fixed and the expansion of WfH is large and unexpected. |
| Keywords: | Work from Home, Gender Inequality, Occupational Sorting, Human Capital, General Equilibrium, Life-Cycle Model, Time allocation, Productivity Penalties |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J24 J31 D13 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_733 |
| By: | Doepke, Matthias; Zilibotti, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences of unequal parenting on children’s long-term outcomes. Our analysis reveals that parenting style exerts a distinct influence on children’s development, separate from socio-economic factors such as education and race. We contend that parenting styles adapt to the evolving environment in which children are raised. Although correlated with socio-economic family characteristics, this factor demonstrates an independent impact. Recognizing how parents respond to economic shifts is crucial for deriving policy implications. Supporting this perspective, our findings indicate that parenting choices exhibit systematic variation across countries and local communities with varying formal and informal institutions. Therefore, a critical next step in addressing inequality in early-childhood outcomes involves examining how parents will modify their own behaviours in response to potential policy changes. |
| Keywords: | child development; parenting style; unequal parenting |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137504 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B; Jaramillo Echeverri, Juliana; Purcell, Matthew; A'Hearn, Brian; Arthi, Vellore; Blum, Matthias; Brainerd, Elizabeth; Capuno, Joseph; Cermeño, Alexandra Lopez; Challú, Amílcar; Cho, Young-Jun; Cole, Tim; Corpuz, Jose; Depauw, Ewout; Droller, Federico; von Fintel, Dieter; Floris, Joël; Galofré-Vilà, Gregori; Harris, Bernard; Hatton, Tim; Heyberger, Laurent; Hurme, Tuuli; Inwood, Kris; Jaadla, Hanaliis; Kok, Jan; Kopczynśki, Michał; Lordemus, Samuel; Marein, Brian; Meisel-Roca, Adolfo; Morgan, Stephen; Öberg, Stefan; Ogasawara, Kota; Ortega, José Antonio; Palma, Nuno; Papadimitriou, Anastasios; Pistola, Renato; Quanjer, Björn; Rother, Helena; Saaritsa, Sakari; Salvatore, Ricardo; Staub, Kaspar; van der Eng, Pierre; Roberts, Evan |
| Abstract: | Introduction Child stunting, a measure of malnutrition, is a major global health challenge affecting 148.1 million children in 2022. Global stunting rates have declined from 47.2% in 1985 to 22.3% in 2022; however, trends before the mid-1980s are unclear, including whether child stunting was previously prevalent in current high-income countries (HICs). We conducted a systematic review of child growth studies before 1990 to reconstruct historical rates of child stunting. Methods We included reports of mean height by age and sex for children up to age 10.99 years. We excluded studies that were not representative of the targeted population and data for children under age 2. Stunting rates were computed by converting the means and SDs of height to height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) using the WHO standard/reference, combining the HAZ distributions for all ages and measuring the share of the combined distribution below the stunting threshold. Results We found 923 child growth studies at the community, regional and national level covering 122 countries from 1814 to 2016. We supplemented these historical studies with stunting estimates from the 1990s onward from the Joint Malnutrition Estimates database. Many current HICs had high levels of child stunting in the early 20th century, similar to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) today. However, there was heterogeneity: stunting rates were low in Scandinavia, the European settler colonies and in the Caribbean, higher in Western Europe and exceptionally high in Japan and South Korea. Child stunting declined across the 20th century. Conclusion The global child stunting rate was substantially higher in the early 20th century than in 1985, and the reduction of child stunting was a central feature of the health transition. The high stunting rates and subsequent reduction of stunting in HICs suggest that current HICs provide lessons for eradicating child stunting and that all LMICs can eliminate stunting. |
| Keywords: | nutrition; stunting; public health; child health; medical demography; humans; growth disorders; prevalence; child development; developed countries; history; 19th Century; history; 20th Century; child; child; preschool; infant; female; male; global health |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137470 |