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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Philipp Dierker; Dalton Conley |
| Abstract: | Parents’ and teachers’ expectations and aspirations are critical drivers of educational outcomes, yet what causally shapes these expectations remains unclear. In the present study, we address this question by deploying the random experiment of meiosis: namely, conditional on parental genotype, offspring genotype is random, allowing for the unconfounding of unique child characteristics from the more general family and household environment. Using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, we employ Mendelian imputation to estimate the direct genetic effects of 18 polygenic indices on college encouragement, net of parental genetic background. The genetic propensity for educational attainment and mathematical ability predict stronger expectations of college attendance, while smoking behavior predicts weaker expectations. Psychiatric traits show no effects after multiple-testing correction, indicating that responses are concentrated on cognitive and behavioral traits. Mediation analysis finds that prospectively measured teachers’ encouragement accounts for roughly a quarter of the genetic effects on educational attainment for cognitive traits, but not for psychiatric traits. Genetic effects on expectations are amplified among high-SES parents and first-born children. Thus, genetic influences on educational expectations are narrow in trait scope and uneven across families, with encouragement serving as one channel linking genetic differences to educational inequality. |
| JEL: | I19 I24 J10 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35576 |
| By: | Benjamin Hansen; Niketana Kannan; Jonathan Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the National Suicide Hotline Designation Act, which introduced the universal 988 calling code and earmarked federal funding to suicide crisis call centers in July 2022. We use a difference-in-differences design that leverages pre-existing cross-state variation in crisis line capacity gaps, measured by the number of pre-988 calls routed to a state but not answered in-state. The rollout substantially improved crisis line operations in states with larger baseline capacity gaps: these states answered more calls in-state and increased their in-state answer rates. However, these operational gains did not translate into detectable reductions in suicide mortality. The mortality estimates are precise enough to rule out even modest short-run reductions. We also find no statistically significant improvements in broader population mental health outcomes. These findings suggest that expanding crisis line capacity alone may be insufficient to reduce suicide deaths. |
| JEL: | H51 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35601 |
| By: | Voth, Hans-Joachim; Yanagizawa-Drott, David |
| Abstract: | From clothes and hairstyles to fashion accessories, humans use a great range of stylistic elements to express themselves, impress others, demonstrate their individualism, or show that they belong to a group. We present new methods to use images as a high-frequency, granular source for the analysis of cultural change. Despite its central importance as a form of social interaction and self-expression, and a rich body of theoretical work, empirical work on style choices is rare. We measure similarity over time and space, tracking the timing and location of influential style innovations. To illustrate our methods, we systematically exploit data from more than 14 million high school yearbook pictures of graduating US seniors to analyze persistence and change in style. We document a striking convergence of male and female style characteristics. This is driven by rising male individualism and declining male persistence across generations from the late 1960s onwards. Also, style polarization increases sharply across commuting zones from the 1970s onwards. In addition, we develop a novel measure of style innovation and show that it predicts patenting by cohorts later in life, suggestive of broader societal trends facilitating innovation across a range of domains. Overall, our results highlight the usefulness of images as a source for cultural economics. |
| Keywords: | Culture |
| JEL: | A12 Z13 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19219 |