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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Claudia Goldin |
| Abstract: | Fertility levels have greatly decreased in virtually every nation in the world, but the timing of the decline has differed even among developed countries. In Europe, Asia, and North America, total fertility rates of some nations dipped below the magic replacement figure of 2.1 as early as the 1970s. But in other nations, fertility rates remained substantial until the 1990s but plummeted subsequently. This paper addresses why some countries in Europe and Asia with moderate fertility levels in 1980s, have become the “lowest-low” nations today (total fertility rates of less than 1.3), whereas those that decreased earlier have not. Also addressed is why the crossover point for the two groups of nations was around the 1980s and 1990s. An important factor that distinguishes the two groups is their economic growth in the 1960s and 1970s. Countries with “lowest low” fertility rates today experienced rapid growth in GNP per capita after a long period of stagnation or decline. They were catapulted into modernity, but the beliefs, values, and traditions of their citizens changed more slowly. Thus, swift economic change may lead to both generational and gendered conflicts that result in a rapid decrease in the total fertility rate. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J16 N30 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33311 |
| By: | Ana Rodríguez-González (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Men’s historical advantage in educational attainment has recently been reversed in many countries. I study the implications for family formation of the new female advantage in education in the marriage market, exploiting a Finnish school reform that increased women’s relative level of education. I analyze the reduced-form relationship between marriage market exposure to the reform and family outcomes. I find decreases in marriage and fertility in marriage markets with a larger female educational advantage. These results are mostly driven by the increasing mismatch between the educational distributions of men and women, and might have negative consequences for low-educated men’s mental health. |
| Keywords: | JEL classification: J12, J13, J16, I10 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202407 |
| By: | Chiara Puccioni (Research Department, Confindustria); Daniela Vuri (DEF & CEIS, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of an Italian government initiative launched in 2007, which allocated e1 billion to regional governments to enhance early childhood care services for children aged 0-2, targeting both public and private childcare options. Exploiting variations in the timing of implementation across regions, we assess the program’s effectiveness in increasing the public provision of early childcare services and maternal labor market participation. Results show a significant increase in both public childcare slots and labor market participation among mothers. However, the initiative had limited effects on less-educated women, likely due to the service’s relatively high costs, which may hinder broader accessibility. |
| Keywords: | early childcare services; mothers’ labor supply; staggered difference-in-difference; dynamic estimates |
| JEL: | C21 C22 H52 H75 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:588 |
| By: | Henning Hermes (ifo Institute Munich); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich); Frauke Peter (German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies); Simon Wiederhold (University of Halle) |
| Abstract: | Why are children with lower socioeconomic status (SES) substantially less likely to be enrolled in child care? We study whether barriers in the application process work against lower-SES children — the group known to benefit strongest from child care enrollment. In an RCT in Germany with highly subsidized child care (N = 607), we offer treated families information and personal assistance for applications. We find substantial, equity-enhancing effects of the treatment, closing half of the large SES gap in child care enrollment. Increased enrollment for lower-SES families is likely driven by altered application knowledge and behavior. We discuss scalability of our intervention and derive policy implications for the design of universal child care programs. |
| Keywords: | early childhood, educational inequality, randomized controlled trial |
| JEL: | I21 J13 J18 J24 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-022 |
| By: | Michael T. Baker; Susan P. Carter; Abigail Wozniak |
| Abstract: | A large literature links marriage to later life outcomes for children and adults. Marriage has declined markedly in the U.S. over the last 50 years, particularly among individuals with less than a baccalaureate degree, yet the causes of the decline are not well understood. In this paper we provide causal evidence on one potential mechanism for the observed marriage rate patterns: peer effects. We use administrative personnel data from the U.S. Army to study how peers influence marriage decisions for junior enlisted soldiers arriving to their first assignment from 2001-2018, a setting which features substantial variation in peer group marriage rates and conditional random assignment to peer groups. We find that exposure to the 75th versus 25th percentile of our identifying variation in peer marriage rates increases the likelihood that an unmarried individual marries within two years of assignment by 1.9 percent. We show that lateral peers and near supervisors alike influence marriage decisions and we argue that our results are most consistent with conformist behavior, where peers influence marriage decisions through role-modeling and group social norms. The effect of peers is larger for men, and for Black and Hispanic men, in particular. While the effect of peers attenuates after 36 months for white and Hispanic men, effects persist and continue to grow over time for Black men, suggesting that our results are not fully explained by re-timing. We benchmark our estimates against previous research and argue that the effect of peers on individual marriage decisions is economically meaningful. |
| Keywords: | Marriage; Marriage formation; peer effects |
| JEL: | J12 J11 J13 D10 D91 |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99211 |
| By: | Sara Giunti; Andrea Guariso; Mariapia Mendola; Irene Solmone |
| Abstract: | Global demographic shifts have increased population diversity in advanced economies, often leading to anti-immigrant attitudes and discrimination fueled by prejudice and stereotypes. In this paper, we study a short educational program for high-school students aimed at promoting cultural diversity and improving attitudes toward immigration through active learning. To identify the impact of the program, we designed a randomized controlled trial involving 4, 500 students from 252 classes across 40 schools in northern Italy. The program led to more positive attitudes and behaviors toward immigrants, especially in more mixed classes. In terms of mechanisms, the intervention reduced students' misperception and changed their perceived norms toward immigration, while it had no impact on implicit bias, empathy, or social contacts. Our findings suggest that anti-immigrant attitudes are primarily driven by sociotropic concerns rather than individual inter-group experience, and that educational programs fostering critical thinking and group discussion in an issue-salient context can correct them. |
| Keywords: | Ethnic Stereotypes, Social Inclusion Policy, Impact Evaluation, Immigration attitudes |
| JEL: | F22 J15 F68 H53 |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:499 |
| By: | Grönqvist, Hans (Department of Economics and Statistics); Niknami, Susan (Stockholm University); Palme, Mårten (Stockholm University); Priks, Mikael (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children’s short- and long-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that the incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen criminal convictions, a decrease in high school graduation, and worse labor market outcomes in adulthood. The effects are concentrated among children from disadvantaged families, in particular families where the remaining non-convicted parent is disadvantaged. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behavior in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets and progressive criminal justice systems. |
| Keywords: | incarceration; crime |
| JEL: | K42 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2024_012 |