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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Benjamin-Samuel Schlueter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Leslie Root; Monica J. Alexander (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | As the United States is in an era of sustained fertility decline, childlessness across the life course is an increasingly important demographic phenomenon to understand. We developed a Bayesian parametric model to estimate the proportion of women who are childless by age, race and ethnicity, and education for birth cohorts 1950-1999 using data from the Current Population Survey and the National Survey of Family Growth. We show that there have been substantial changes to childbearing trajectories in the United States, with an increase in the share of women who are childless at most ages. For the 1950-1954 birth cohort, the age by which 50% of women had a child was 24 years, while for the 1990-1994 cohort it had risen to 29 years. Childlessness declines rapidly at early ages for those with a high school degree only, while those with a college degree enter parenthood later. Increases in childlessness at younger ages have not yet had substantial effects on the share of women without children at age 45, which has risen for some groups but fallen for others, particularly the most-educated mothers. |
| Keywords: | USA, childless couples |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-005 |
| By: | Benjamin-Samuel Schlueter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Schoumaker Bruno; Monica J. Alexander (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Research on human fertility has primarily focused on women, with male fertility remaining underexplored. The biggest differences in timing and magnitude between male and female fertility is observed in the Global South, where data on male fertility is not widely available. In this project we propose a Bayesian parametric model to estimate and reconstruct male fertility rates for countries with no civil registration and vital statistics systems for past, present, and future periods. We draw on data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from various countries. The statsitical model we propose, whch centers on a skewed-Normal distribution, accounts for missing data, small samples, and data quality issues. The model is flexible enough to capture variations in male age-specific fertility rates across different populations and periods. The approach also allows reconstructing estimates for years without data and incorporating sampling errors from surveys. This research will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of male fertility trends and provide essential inputs for modeling kinship structures, orphanhood, and conducting indirect mortality estimates. |
| Keywords: | World, fertility rate |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-006 |