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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Del Boca, Daniela (University of Turin); Favero, Luca (University of St Andrews); Pronzato, Chiara (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | Many advanced economies face persistently low fertility alongside rapid population ageing, raising concerns about economic sustainability and demographic balance. Addressing these challenges requires both sustained labor market participation among the working-age population and conditions that support childbearing. These objectives place women, and particularly mothers, at the center of the demographic debate, as motherhood remains a key turning point in employment trajectories and family formation. Using experimental evidence from an intervention targeting mothers who curtailed employment due to childcare responsibilities, the paper finds that improving work–family reconciliation can support mothers’ labor market reintegration, promote investments in existing children, and, under conditions of greater stability, strengthen fertility desires. |
| Keywords: | work, motherhood, family friendly policies, fertility desire |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 J11 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18630 |
| By: | Sam Engle; Chong Pang; Anson Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theory of fertility choice with loss aversion over consumption. Because children compete with consumption for household resources, loss-averse households cut fertility aggressively to protect living standards when adverse shocks push consumption below reference levels, but respond modestly to positive shocks. Cross-country panel data and quasi-experimental evidence support the model's predictions. A calibrated version attributes a substantial share of China's recent fertility decline to slowing income growth activating loss aversion. The findings suggest that pro-natalist policies are more effective during downturns, temporary subsidies may backfire upon withdrawal, and pro-fertility regimes should target higher fertility under income uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Fertility elasticity, loss aversion, family policy |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26120 |
| By: | Miller, Sarah (University of Michigan Ross School of Business); Persson, Petra (Stanford University); Rossin-Slater, Maya (Stanford University); Wherry, Laura (New York University) |
| Abstract: | We study an intervention that reduced cesarean deliveries among low-risk first-time mothers, using California birth records linked to earnings data. Exposed mothers were 8% less likely to have a c-section, with no adverse health effects. We find suggestive evidence that they were more likely to return to their pre-birth employerandhadhigherwithin-firmearningsrankingsinthequarterpostbirth. These labor market gains fade over time. However, mothers who had a second child were less likely to have a c-section or preterm delivery, suggesting our estimated effects from avoiding a first c-section may be lower bounds on total gains. |
| Keywords: | c-section, maternal health, child penalty |
| JEL: | I14 I15 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18629 |
| By: | Kanato Nakakuni; Michèle Tertilt; Minchul Yum |
| Abstract: | This chapter examines how social norms shape fer lity behavior. We first present cross-country evidence linking fer lity to norms regarding family size, childcare, gender roles, paren ng, and sexual behavior. We also review empirical studies showing substan al fer lity spillovers within families, workplaces, and social networks. To interpret these pa erns, we present a series of models to clarify the mechanisms through which norms and fer lity decisions interact. We organize the theories by type of norm: norms about ideal family size, norms governing the use of market childcare, gender norms within the household, paren ng norms related to educa onal investment and social comparison, and norms surrounding birth control. We discuss how changes in social norms over me may have contributed to fer lity decline. Finally, we highlight promising direc ons for future research. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Social Norms, Externality, Pro-natal Policies |
| JEL: | D1 D62 I28 J13 N3 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_747 |
| By: | Brugarolas, Pablo |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts a meta-analysis of causal studies examining the impact of Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) programs on maternal employment in developed countries. Using 981 effect-size estimates from 35 studies, I harmonize employment outcomes into percentage-point changes and assemble 70 study-level characteristics describing program design, subgroups, contexts, and empirical strategies. I apply a battery of linear and non-linear publication-bias tests and use model-averaging methods to account jointly for publication bias and what I term weak design bias, defined by whether studies satisfy core identification diagnostics for RDD, IV, RCT, and DiD designs. Publication bias is modest but non-negligible: correcting only for selective reporting reduces the descriptive mean effect of around 5 percentage points (p.p.) to roughly 1 p.p., yielding insignificant implied intention-to-treat (ITT) effects and average treatment-on-the-treated (ATT) effects of about 4 p.p. Once I also reweight the literature toward designs that meet identification checks, the implied ITT effect rises to about 8 p.p., and the implied ATT effect stabilizes around 10 p.p. The corrected ATT effects are particularly pronounced for child care programs, delivered by public providers, and implemented in high-employment settings. Overall, the results suggest that modern ECEC expansions generate sizeable employment gains for already attached mothers facing binding care constraints. They also provide bias-corrected benchmarks for evaluating ECEC reforms and their contribution to mitigating child penalties and gender gaps in labour-market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | preschool provision; ECEC; child care; maternal labor supply; publication bias; Pre-k; meta-analysis |
| JEL: | C80 J13 J18 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138424 |
| By: | Daphné Skandalis; Arnaud Philippe |
| Abstract: | Why do women's labor earnings drop upon motherhood? We shed new light on this question by analyzing the changes in job search behavior associated with motherhood. We exploit data on the job applications sent on a popular online platform linked with administrative registers for 350, 000 involuntarily unemployed workers in France. After losing their job, mothers have a 11.7% lower probability to find a job than similar women without children and send 12.2% fewer job applications. To explore the underlying mechanisms, we analyze the timing of job applications. Unlike other women, mothers' rate of applications decreases by about 20.5% in the hours when there is no school. Moreover, the French reform that introduced school on Wednesday in 2014 led mothers to send more applications on Wednesdays. Our results highlight that childcare creates constraints on the timing of job search activities for mothers. We finally provide suggestive evidence that these constraints decrease their return-to-search, and thereby contribute to their lower application and job finding rates. |
| Keywords: | Gender inequality, Motherhood, Time allocation, Job search |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26129 |
| By: | Nicolò Russo; Rory McGee; Mariacristina De Nardi; Margherita Borella; Ross Abram |
| Abstract: | Health shapes a broad set of later-life outcomes that are central to macroeconomics and public policy, including disability receipt, retirement, long-term care use, and survival. Yet we know little about how much differences in midlife health contribute to disparities in these outcomes later in life by race, ethnicity, and gender. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we construct a measure of health based on frailty and document large disparities at midlife. Black men and women have frailty levels at age 55 comparable to those of White men and women who are 13 and 20 years older, respectively, while the corresponding gaps for Hispanic men and women are 8 and 12 years. We then estimate a dynamic system linking health at age 55 to subsequent outcomes. Equalizing the distribution of health at age 55 across groups substantially reduces disparities in time spent in poor health, disability benefit receipt, and nursing home residence. Importantly, midlife health can account for later-life disparities more than education, health insurance coverage, and marital status jointly. |
| Keywords: | Health inequality, economic outcomes, economic inequality |
| JEL: | I10 D10 D13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26127 |
| By: | Andrea Del Pizzo; Martin Nybom; Jan Stuhler |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews indirect estimators of intergenerational mobility, focusing on approaches that infer parent–child or other family associations when direct income data are incomplete or unavailable. We synthesize methods based on instrumental variables, imputation using observable characteristics such as education and occupation, surname-based estimators, and multigenerational linkages. To unify these approaches, we introduce a stylized framework in which socioeconomic status is transmitted through multiple pathways with heterogeneous persistence rates. Within this framework, both direct and indirect estimators can be interpreted as weighted averages of these underlying transmission channels. A central insight is that the choice of instrument or imputation strategy determines these weights, leading different methods to capture distinct aspects of the transmission process. We highlight implications for interpretation, showing that indirect estimators need not recover conventional parent–child correlations but can instead provide complementary evidence on long-run persistence and the mechanisms underlying persistent inequalities. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, instrumental variables, surnames, mMultigenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J62 J12 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12663 |