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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Philipp Dierker (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Ariane Ophir; Nicole Hiekel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Objective: This study examines how short-term fertility intentions evolve before and after transitions between relationship stages. Background: Prior research has primarily compared fertility intentions across partnership statuses, while giving less attention to within-person dynamics surrounding partnership transitions and the question of whether shifts reflect anticipatory selection or post-transition changes. Method: Using longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (waves 2008–2022), we apply an event-centered fixed effects design to estimate changes in fertility intentions up to three years before and after transitions to dating, cohabitation, and marriage. Stratified analyses assess variation by gender, age, and subsequent relationship stability. Results: Entry into dating from singlehood is followed by a within-person increase in fertility intentions, indicating that dating functions as a turning point activating fertility planning. Entry into cohabitation is associated with rising intentions prior to the transition and sustained increases thereafter, suggesting that cohabitation consolidates fertility plans. Marriage transitions are characterized by anticipatory increases in fertility intentions. Fertility intentions increase after entry into dating only in relationships that persist, underscoring the role of stability in consolidating early adjustments. Men and older individuals enter marriage with high fertility intentions, while women report higher intentions before cohabitation. Conclusions: Different partnership stages act as distinct mechanisms for the evolution of fertility intentions over the life course. Dating is an activation stage where fertility planning emerges, while cohabitation reinforces and consolidates plans and marriage reflects anticipatory selection. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-010 |
| By: | Brenøe, Anne (University of Zurich); Stearns, Jenna (University of California, Davis); Martin, Richard (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the only large-scale randomized controlled trial promoting prolonged exclusive breastfeeding, we study how the intervention affected child health and why. The intervention increased weight-for-age in infancy, with effects persisting through adolescence. We show that treated infants were breastfed more and received less water, juice, and other liquids, resulting in a more calorie-dense diet. A mediation analysis indicates that increased caloric intake explains a large share of the early weight gain, while reduced illness explains little. These findings suggest that, in this setting, the main benefits of breastfeeding promotion for physical growth came from improved nutrition. More broadly, the results highlight that the effects of breastfeeding promotion depend on the local alternatives to breast milk and may differ in settings where infant formula or other more nutritious substitutes are the main alternative. |
| Keywords: | breastfeeding, infant feeding, child health, the Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (PROBIT) |
| JEL: | I10 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18495 |
| By: | Doepke, Matthias (London School of Economics and Political Science); Klasing, Mariko (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | Children and their parents resemble each other in terms of economic preferences such as patience and risk tolerance. What drives the intergenerational correlation in preferences? We build a model of preference formation that combines genetic transmission, state influence through childcare institutions, and altruistic parental socialization, where parents seek to endow children with preferences conducive to success. To assess the importance of these channels, we exploit German reunification as a natural experiment that simultaneously removed state indoctrination and transformed economic incentives. For risk tolerance-a trait with arguably high returns during a rapid transition to a market economy-parent-child correlations decline by more than a third among East German families after reunification, consistent with parents actively instilling new values in their children to prepare them for capitalism. For trust and patience, correlations rise as the state withdraws and socialization in the family looms larger. These contrasting patterns suggest that parents do not just aim to reproduce their own preferences but adapt their socialization effort to the world their children will face. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational preference transmission, cultural transmission, German reunification, risk tolerance, family economics |
| JEL: | D10 I20 J13 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18481 |
| By: | Bagues, Manuel (University of Warwick); Makany, Milan (Erasmus University); Vattuone, Giulia (SOFI, Stockholm University); Zinovyeva, Natalia (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We study how faculty promotion decisions shape women's careers and the academic pipeline, using data from 4, 000 Spanish university departments across all disciplines. We identify exogenous variation in promotions using the random assignment of evaluators to promotion committees between 2002 and 2008: applicants whose committees included a co-author or colleague were significantly more likely to qualify for promotion. We document two main findings. First, failing to obtain tenure has asymmetrically lasting consequences for women. Those who narrowly miss tenure are 57 percentage points less likely to be tenured fifteen years later, compared to 29 percentage points for men. Second, when women do obtain tenure, the effects extend well beyond their own careers: promoting a woman to Associate Professor increases female faculty by 1.5 members after 15 years, leads to six additional female PhD graduates over the following decade, and raises the number who subsequently remain in academia and reach tenured positions. |
| Keywords: | academic promotions, women in academia, natural experiment |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J44 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18477 |