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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Bucci, Alberto; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all highincome countries over the past decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully- and semi-endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and perhaps even stagnation. We extend the previous analyses to explicitly incorporate an endogenous quantity/quality trade-off between fertility and human capital accumulation. This allows us to assess the extent to which a declining number of workers can be compensated by increasing education. Our analysis demonstrates that economic growth needs not necessarily to decline with a falling population. Under certain conditions, human capital investment can sustain technological progress and economic growth despite the demographic challenges we are facing. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Change, Fertility Decline, Economic Growth, Research and Development, Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Education, Human Capital Accumulation |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O33 O41 I25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1585 |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract Job loss is one of the most significant negative shocks experienced by an individual. Job loss can lead to financial strain, poor health and increased social problems. Previous studies have also found that job loss increases the risk of all-cause mortality. This ETLA brief presents the findings of a study that examines the long-term effects of job loss on mortality, using extensive register data up to 2020. Job losses are measured by plant closures and mass layoffs that occurred during the Finnish recession of the 1990s. The results show that displaced workers have a 10–20% higher mortality risk compared to non-displaced workers. These effects are still evident 30 years later. Job loss increased the long-term risks for mortality from ischemic heart diseases, infectious, parasitic, or respiratory diseases and cancer. However, the most pronounced effects were observed in alcohol-related deaths, suicide, accidents and violence. These findings highlight the need for interventions and preventive measures to support the health of individuals affected by job loss and to reduce their risk of premature mortality. See also Academic Publication. |
| Keywords: | Job loss, Recession, All-cause mortality, Specific-cause mortality |
| JEL: | I10 J60 |
| Date: | 2025–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:156 |