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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Joseph J. Doyle Jr.; Natalia Emanuel; Raimundo Eyzaguirre |
| Abstract: | Foster care placement is a far-reaching intervention that can have substantial long-term effects on children and families. Lifetime prevalence estimates are based on synthetic cohort life tables, which rely on a stationarity assumption that age-specific rates are stable over time. This paper uses a birth cohort life table approach for the 2000-2002 cohorts, where data from birth to 18 years allows us to observe lifetime prevalence of foster care placement directly. We find that 5.0% of children born in these cohorts were placed in foster care, including 10% of Black children and 12% of Native American children, with considerable heterogeneity across U.S. states. By comparing both methods, we see that synthetic cohort estimates were 17% higher than birth cohort estimates because placement rates for teenagers were higher at the point of synthetic cohort estimation than during their actual teenage years. We extend synthetic cohort estimates to 2019 and find similar placement rates by sex over time, increasing shares of placements due to neglect and substance abuse, decreasing shares due to child behavioral issues, and an increasing share of placements into kinship foster care. These patterns are similar regardless of the approach. |
| JEL: | H73 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34069 |
| By: | Dachille, Giuseppe (University of Rome Tor Vergata); De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria); Nistico, Roberto (University of Naples Federico II) |
| Abstract: | We study the fertility effects of Italy’s Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), a national minimum income program introduced in 2019. Exploiting administrative data from the Italian Social Security Institute and a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we document that RdC increased recipients’ childbirth probability by 1.5 percentage points (18%) over two years in the South, with no effect in the Centre-North. Labor supply declined by 10%, but only in the Centre-North. Regional heterogeneity reflects differences in gender norms, financial constraints, and opportunity costs of childbearing. Our findings highlight how income transfers interact with local context to shape demographic and labor market behavior. |
| Keywords: | RDD, fertility, guaranteed minimum income |
| JEL: | H53 J13 C21 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18105 |
| By: | Calvo, Paula (Yale University); Iyigun, Murat (University of Colorado, Boulder); Lafortune, Jeanne (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile) |
| Abstract: | We show that separation has been a relevant outcome of American relationships over the last century and that separated women have worse economic outcomes than those divorced. A transferable-utility model of marriage, separation and divorce indicates that the welfare effects of divorce legislation depend on considering separation as an alternative. Empirically, the adoption of unilateral divorce laws reduced separation and increased divorce, particularly among low-educated women. A calibrated model indicates heterogeneous welfare effects of unilateral divorce with gains being concentrated among women with lower education. Desertion laws with very short duration generate similar gains for women. |
| Keywords: | female welfare, separation, divorce, marriage, gender gaps |
| JEL: | J12 J11 N32 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18093 |
| By: | Lindsay Jacobs; Suphanit Piyapromdee |
| Abstract: | Partial and reverse retirement are two key behaviors characterizing labor force dynamics for individuals at older ages, with half working part-time and over a third leaving and later re-entering the labor force at some point. The high rate of exit and re-entry is especially puzzling when considering the flat and declining wage profiles observed at older ages and uncertainty about future re-employment. Using Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data, we document the timing and prevalence of these behaviors and show that reverse retirees resemble permanent retirees across many observables, but differ notably in reported job stress and polygenic scores linked to stress sensitivity. To understand what drives these behaviors, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of retirement that incorporates uncertainty in wages and health, along with a novel “burnout-recovery†process representing the accumulation and dissipation of work-related stress. The model replicates key patterns in the data, accounting for over two-thirds of reverse retirement and 40 percent of transitions to part-time work—patterns that cannot be explained by health or wealth shocks alone. Our findings suggest that reverse retirement is largely a predictable response to recoverable stress rather than a reaction to shocks. Policy simulations show that part-time subsidies and sabbaticals enhance labor force attachment and welfare by reducing burnout, while eliminating the Retirement Earnings Test raises re-entry but also increases stress exposure. Together, these findings highlight the central role of stress dynamics in shaping retirement behavior and inform the design of policies to support work at older ages. |
| Keywords: | Retirement; Mental Health; Burnout |
| JEL: | J26 I12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:238 |
| By: | Xiaohong Chen; Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna; Haitian Xie |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates efficient Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Event Study (ES) estimation using short panel data sets within the heterogeneous treatment effect framework, free from parametric functional form assumptions and allowing for variation in treatment timing. We provide an equivalent characterization of the DiD potential outcome model using sequential conditional moment restrictions on observables, which shows that the DiD identification assumptions typically imply nonparametric overidentification restrictions. We derive the semiparametric efficient influence function (EIF) in closed form for DiD and ES causal parameters under commonly imposed parallel trends assumptions. The EIF is automatically Neyman orthogonal and yields the smallest variance among all asymptotically normal, regular estimators of the DiD and ES parameters. Leveraging the EIF, we propose simple-to-compute efficient estimators. Our results highlight how to optimally explore different pre-treatment periods and comparison groups to obtain the tightest (asymptotic) confidence intervals, offering practical tools for improving inference in modern DiD and ES applications even in small samples. Calibrated simulations and an empirical application demonstrate substantial precision gains of our efficient estimators in finite samples. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.17729 |