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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Julia Hellstrand (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Linus Andersson; Lars Dommermuth; Peter Fallesen; Ari Klængur Jónsson; Marika Jalovaara; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Recent period trends in the Nordic countries show rapid declines in first births, particularly among lower-educated men and women. This study translates these period changes into cohort patterns and analyzes observed and forecasted ultimate childlessness by education for men and women born 1970–1987/88 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden using register-based data. We apply three forecasting methods: freeze rates, five-year extrapolation, and a nonparametric approach based on historical first-birth probabilities. Results reveal the steepest increases in ultimate childlessness among the lowest educated, approaching as high as 40% among low-educated women and 50% among low-educated men in some of the countries. Among the higher tertiary educated, childlessness is overall lower and remains relatively stable. By contrast, men with lower tertiary education show notable increases in childlessness, in some cases reaching levels similar to or higher than those of upper-secondary-educated men. While overall childlessness in Denmark remains stable, it exhibits the fastest widening educational gap. These findings underscore a growing educational polarization in the transition to parenthood across the Nordic societies, with women’s childlessness patterns increasingly resembling those of men—a marked shift in the region’s fertility landscape. Keywords: Ultimate childlessness, educational gradients, Nordic countries, forecasting, gender convergence |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-029 |
| By: | Lukas Mahler; Michéle Tertilt; Minchul Yum |
| Abstract: | The global fertility rate has reached a record low, with nearly half of all countries now below replacement level. This has sparked renewed interest among policymakers and researchers alike. In this paper, we explore a novel explanation for low birth rates based on comparison motives. We show theoretically that strong comparison motives lead to high parental investments---both in time and money---and low fertility. We further show that comparison motives can amplify fertility declines driven by other forces. We provide suggestive empirical support for the role of comparison motives in explaining cross-country and within-U.S. regional variation in fertility. The resulting policy implications are different from those usually considered. Specifically, high-stakes testing in the education system may heighten comparison motives and thereby contribute to fertility decline. Banning or taxing certain types of private education institutions could reduce excessive parental investment and thereby stimulate fertility. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Comparison Motives, Externality, Parental Investments, Education, College Admissions, High-Stakes Testing, Family Policy, Pro-natal Policies, Education Taxes, Quantity-Quality Trade-Off |
| JEL: | D62 E24 I21 I28 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_705 |
| By: | Olivier Marie; Esmée Zwiers |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new causal evidence on the “power” of oral contraceptives in shaping women’s lives, leveraging the 1970 liberalization of the Pill for minors in the Netherlands and demand- and supply-side religious preferences that affected Pill take-up. We analyze administrative data to demonstrate that, after Pill liberalization, minors from less conservative areas were more likely to delay fertility/marriage and to accumulate human capital in the long run. We then show how these large effects were eliminated for women facing a higher share of gatekeepers – general practitioners and pharmacists – who were opposed to providing the Pill on religious grounds. |
| Keywords: | birth control, religion, fertility, marriage, human capital, the Netherlands |
| JEL: | I18 J12 J13 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12157 |
| By: | Lucie Giorgi (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Eva Raiber (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | We examine how the 2015 relaxation of China's one-child policy affected marriage outcomes. Before the reform, some groups were already permitted to have two children. In China, where the sex ratio is heavily skewed toward men, being exempt from the one-child constraint may have been a desirable characteristic for marriage, increasing men's marriage odds. Using detailed policy data on exemptions and individual data from 2010-2018, we find that after the relaxation, men previously allowed a second child are less likely to marry compared to those not allowed. There is no effect for women. The results suggest that differential fertility constraints distorted who got married by advantaging certain men when there was a demand for a second child and strong marriage competition. Furthermore, suggestive evidence shows that the relaxation increased matching by education when exemptions were moderately widespread, indicating that fertility constraints also shaped who married whom. |
| Keywords: | fertility, Family planning, marriage, China |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J18 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2512 |
| By: | Pascaline Dupas (Princeton University); Seema Jayachandran (Princeton University); Adriana Lleras-Muney (UCLA - University of California [Los Angeles] - UC - University of California); Pauline Rossi (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique, ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We conducted a randomized trial among 14, 545 households in rural Burkina Faso to test the oft-cited hypothesis that limited access to contraception is an important driver of high fertility rates in West Africa. We do not find support for this hypothesis. Women who were given free access to modern contraception for three years did not have lower birth rates; we can reject even modest effects. We cross-randomized additional interventions to address inefficiencies that might depress demand for free contraception, specifically misperceptions about the child mortality rate and social norms. Free contraception did not significantly influence fertility even in combination with these interventions. |
| Keywords: | Family planning, Demographic transition, Social norms, Randomized trial |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05272203 |