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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Diane Coffey; Michael Geruso; Dean Spears; Sangita Vyas |
| Abstract: | Many population projections used by international and government agencies assume that, in today's low-fertility societies, future fertility rates will stop declining and roughly stabilize. This paper assesses the evidence for an equilibrium point or rebound from low levels. We show that there is no robust evidence for a systematic fertility rebound, or for a stable equilibrium point at any fertility level conventionally assumed. Instead, where and when fertility has fallen low, it has tended to keep falling. This is true across a range of data sources, time periods, and fertility measures: United Nations data on period total fertility rates for all country-years from 1950 to 2023; Human Fertility Database data on completed fertility for cohorts born between 1935 and 1975 in 31 countries; and fertility rates in subnational geographies in Japan, India, and the United States. We reconcile these results with a prior literature that documented fertility reversals among some low-fertility countries in the early 2000s. Our findings provide an empirical basis for re-examining the equilibrium and rebound assumptions embedded in widely used population projections. |
| JEL: | C53 J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35824 |
| By: | Bracco, Jessica; Froude, Yves; Pinto, María Florencia; Rijkers, Bob; Valsecchi, Michele |
| Abstract: | How do child penalties emerge within organizations? This paper studies how parenthood affects careers at the World Bank Group, exploiting variation in the timing of first childbirth among eventual parents in a staggered event-study difference-in-differences design. The paper estimates a 3.1 percent motherhood earnings penalty over the first six years after childbirth, primarily due to slower grade progression, while fathers experience no significant earnings loss. Mothers’ annual performance evaluations show no persistent deterioration. After childbirth, mothers take on fewer leadership responsibilities and travel less for work: they are less likely to initiate development projects and supervise external consultants. By contrast, the quality of realized outputs is not affected by parenthood. Mothers increasingly sort into positions with lower promotion potential, greater scope for home-based work and lower travel demands, where child penalties tend to be smaller. Together, these findings point to an advancement–flexibility trade-off: following childbirth, mothers shift away from responsibilities and positions conducive to career advancement, without persistent declines in observable performance. |
| Date: | 2026–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11459 |
| By: | Dribe, Martin (Lund University); Stanfors, Maria (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Married men commonly earn more than unmarried. Explanations emphasize either productivity gains from marriage or positive selection into marriage. Using longitudinal data on men in Sweden 1947–2022, combining historical population records for a regional sample with full-count modern administrative registers, we analyze information on earnings and occupation for both men and their spouses. We estimate linear regression, two-way fixed-effects, event-study models, and residualized quantile regression to capture aspects of the marriage premium. We find a stable marriage premium over 70 years. While OLS estimates are substantially attenuated in fixed-effects models, indicating an important role for selection, a positive premium remains. There were large changes over time in the underlying mechanisms. Until the 1980s, the premium was highest for men with lower earnings, while this pattern reversed after 1990 when the premium was larger at higher earnings. Before 1970 there is some support for a causal marriage premium, while this changed in later periods, when there was strong earnings growth in the years leading up to marriage. The persisting marriage premium suggests that marriage is still crucial for men’ labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | marriage premium, register data, earnings, quantile regression, event study |
| JEL: | J12 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18973 |
| By: | Ah-Reum Lee; William H. Dow; Jacqueline M. Torres |
| Abstract: | A large literature examines the economic and health returns to college education. We extend this literature by studying the upward intergenerational effects of children’s education on parental mortality. We exploit Korea’s 1993 Higher Education Reform, which we estimate raised college completion by 13 percentage points among eldest children in the 1974–1983 birth cohorts relative to the prior 10-year cohort. Using data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging, reduced-form estimates indicate a 27% (s.e.=10%) reduction in mortality among parents whose oldest child was in the reform-affected cohort. Because the reform affected college completion but not other education levels or quality, we use it as an instrumental variable (IV) for child college completion. IV estimates indicate a 20% (s.e.=7%) reduction in parental mortality for children induced to complete college by the reform. These parents received greater financial support and contact from their children and had lower smoking and higher physical activity, although these mechanisms explain only a small share of the mortality benefit. Effects were larger for parents of daughters in reduced-form analyses, although IV estimates did not differ significantly by child gender. Future research should further investigate the mechanisms through which children’s college education affects parental mortality. |
| JEL: | I12 I26 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35792 |
| By: | Gabriella Conti; Evelina Björkegren; Aline Bütikofer; Mårten Palme; Kjell G. Salvanes |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term consequences of neonatal health using three birth anthropometric measures - weight, length, and head circumference - and analyzes their differential associations with outcomes across the life course. Using linked Swedish and Norwegian population registers with follow-up into adulthood, we compare birth measures of singletons and twins and further estimate within-twin-pair fixed-effects models that control for shared genetic and family environmental factors. Our samples comprise up to approximately 679, 000 singletons and 10, 400 twins in Sweden, and 347, 841 singletons and 6, 762 twins in Norway, followed into adulthood. We find that different birth measures capture distinct aspects of fetal development with varying predictive validity across outcome domains. Birth length emerges as the strongest predictor of health outcomes (infant mortality, adult height), consistent with its role as a cumulative indicator of skeletal growth throughout gestation. Birth weight retains stronger associations with cognitive and educational outcomes (grade point average [GPA], years of schooling) in conditional models. Head circumference shows weak and inconsistent associations across specifications. Using within-pair head circumference differences to classify twins as symmetrically versus asymmetrically growth restricted, we find that symmetric intrauterine growth restriction is associated with substantially worse long-term outcomes than asymmetric restriction. In Norwegian twin pairs, growth restriction is associated with lower general cognitive ability (measured at military enlistment) relative to the unaffected co-twin; this within-pair deficit is more than twice as large for symmetric as for asymmetric restriction. We also document significant intergenerational transmission of birth anthropometrics, suggesting both environmental and genetic contributions. Finally, our register-based design with near-complete population coverage minimizes selection bias and attrition while providing statistical power for within-pair analyses across multiple outcomes. Exclusive reliance on birth weight may obscure important information about early-gestation developmental insults. |
| Keywords: | Birth weight; Birth length; Head circumference; Twin studies; Fetal origins; Intrauterine growth restriction; Linkage to administrative data |
| JEL: | I14 I12 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26233 |
| By: | Michael J. Andrews; Ryan R. Hill; Joseph Price; Riley Wilson |
| Abstract: | Occupation choice is a key determinant of economic mobility. This paper studies how childhood neighbors influence occupational choices and later-life earnings. Using linked historical U.S. census records for over six million boys and four million girls, we reconstruct neighborhood microgeography to identify childhood neighbors and their occupations. We find that living next door to someone in a given occupation increases the probability of working in that same occupation 30 years later by about 10 percent relative to other children on the same street. The transmission effect is higher with more intense exposure, in more connected neighborhoods, and when neighboring families are more similar. Exposure to high-income or highly educated neighbors has lasting economic effects, leading to significant gains in adult income and education even compared to other children from the same street. These findings suggest that neighborhood networks play an important role in shaping intergenerational economic mobility. |
| JEL: | J24 J62 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35810 |
| By: | Herbst, Chris (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | In November 2025, New Mexico became the first U.S. state to implement a universal, no-cost child care subsidy program. This paper estimates difference-in-differences and event-study models to evaluate the impact of universal child care on mothers' short-run labor supply adjustments. Using monthly Current Population Survey data, I find that the reform produced different responses across lower- and higher-skilled mothers. For lower-skilled mothers, the policy increased employment along both the extensive and intensive margins. Conversely, higher-skilled mothers, particularly those who are married, experienced reductions in paid work, with partially offsetting increases in school enrollment. Thus, while universal child care relaxes a binding constraint among disadvantaged families, it acts as an in-kind transfer for their advantaged counterparts. |
| Keywords: | child care, labor supply, maternal employment |
| JEL: | J13 J22 H75 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18968 |