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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Kotsadam, Andreas (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Pieters, Janneke (Wageningen University); Rossi, Pauline (CREST-École Polytechnique); Villanger, Espen (Chr. Michelsen Institute); Zipfel, Céline (House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)); Getahun, Tigabu (EconInsight Center for Development Research) |
| Abstract: | We conducted an experiment with multiple factories in Ethiopia to test the widespread hypothesis that formal employment among women reduces fertility. Tracking respondents over eight years, we find that women who were randomly offered a job had more children than the control group. The effect on fertility emerged once the effect on wage employment faded away, around three years after baseline. There are clear effects on household income and savings, but not on bargaining power or marriage. These patterns are consistent with a Beckerian model in which the income effect dominates the substitution effect and households are credit constrained. |
| Keywords: | Female employment; fertility; industrialization; sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2026_006 |
| By: | Amy Finkelstein; Matthew J. Notowidigdo; Enzo Profili |
| Abstract: | We use a dynamic factor time series model to estimate the national mortality impact of the Great Recession. In aggregate, the Great Recession reduced the average annual, age-adjusted mortality rate by about 2 percent, with effects persisting for at least a decade. In a calibrated model of the welfare effects of the estimated impacts of the Great Recession on consumption and mortality, we find that the welfare gain from the estimated mortality decline is quantitatively significant relative to the welfare loss from the estimated consumption decline. The estimated mortality decline is also quantitatively close to prior mortality estimates using cross-sectional variation in the severity of the Great Recession, implying limited general equilibrium effects of the Great Recession on mortality. More broadly, our findings suggest that prior evidence from local labor markets that recessions are good for health can be extrapolated to the likely mortality consequences of nationwide recessions. |
| JEL: | C32 E3 I1 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35914 |
| By: | D. Susie Lee (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Andreas Backhaus; Ewa Batyra (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Zafer Büyükkeçeci (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Martin Flatø; Kelsey Q. Wright (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-042 |
| By: | Emre Kurt (University of Insubria); Hao Wei (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether migrants and native-born workers respond differently to pension reforms that encourage longer working lives. Using longitudinal data from SHARE Waves 4–9 for Germany and Spain, we construct individual reform exposure based on country-specific reform timing, birth-cohort eligibility, and proximity to retirement age, and estimate models with individual and survey-wave fixed effects. Reform exposure is associated with a lower probability of retirement, with suggestive evidence of an additional decline among migrants. This migrant differential is particularly pronounced in Spain, while the corresponding estimate is small and statistically insignificant in Germany, although formal cross-country tests do not establish a statistically significant difference between the two countries. Complementary analyses indicate that adjustment is concentrated around retirement ages rather than reflecting a broad increase in employment, while evidence for effects on mental health and generalized trust is limited. Overall, the findings suggest that migrants may respond differently to pension reform, but that these differences are concentrated at specific retirement margins and depend on the institutional context |
| Keywords: | Migration, Retirement, Mental Health, Generalized Trust, SHARE |
| JEL: | J14 J15 J26 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–10–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-013 |