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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Paul Bingley; Benjamin Ly Serena |
| Abstract: | Socioeconomic inequality in longevity is typically measured using a single indicator, such as education or income. When indicators are imperfect proxies for socioeconomic status, this approach understates inequality. Using multiple indicators can improve measurement by better capturing latent socioeconomic status. We combine education, income, occupation, wealth, and IQ scores using machine learning. Using Danish population-wide data spanning 40 years, we estimate life expectancy at age 40 for the 1942-44 birth cohorts. Individuals at the top of the socioeconomic distribution live nearly 25 years longer than those at the bottom. The estimated gradient is 50-150% steeper with multiple indicators. |
| Keywords: | Life Expectancy, Inequality, Machine Learning |
| JEL: | I14 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26234 |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Jacob Conway; Roy Mill; Luke C. D. Stein |
| Abstract: | We study differences in economic outcomes by perceived skin tone among African Americans using full-count U.S. decennial census data from the late-19th and early-20th centuries. Comparing children coded as "Black" or "Mulatto" by census enumerators and linking these children across population censuses, we first document large gaps in educational attainment and income among African Americans with darker and lighter perceived skin tones. To disentangle the drivers of these gaps, we identify all 35, 992 families in which enumerators assigned same-gender siblings different Black/Mulatto classifications. Relative to sisters coded as Mulatto, sisters coded as Black had lower educational attainment, were less likely to marry, and had less-educated, likely lower-earning husbands. These patterns are consistent with more severe contemporaneous discrimination against African American women with darker perceived skin tones. In contrast, we find similar educational attainment, marital outcomes, and incomes among differently-classified brothers. Men perceived as African Americans of any skin tone faced similar contemporaneous discrimination, consistent with the "one-drop" racial classification rule that grouped together individuals with any known Black ancestry. Lower incomes for African American men perceived as having darker skin tone in the general population were driven by differences in opportunities and resources that varied across families, likely reflecting the impacts of historical or family-level discrimination. |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2610.10606 |
| By: | Christopher M. Worsham; Charles Bray; Joshua Rothman; Brian Kwan; Anupam Jena |
| Abstract: | Observational research into the relationship between maternal acetaminophen use during pregnancy and a child’s subsequent risk of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) or autism has been limited by confounding factors. Using two large national U.S. insurance claims databases and a novel natural experiment, we assessed differences in prevalence of ADHD and autism among children whose gestational periods were impacted by a nationwide Tylenol recall issued in 1982, following deaths from Tylenol capsules containing potassium cyanide. Prevalence of ADHD and autism was not significantly different in birth cohorts exposed to the recall during gestation, when maternal acetaminophen use would have been reduced; interrupted time series models showed no significant differences compared to underlying temporal diagnostic trends. These findings are inconsistent with a clinically meaningful effect of maternal acetaminophen use on subsequent development of neurodevelopmental disorders. |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35873 |
| By: | Joshua S. Graff Zivin; Johnny Huynh; Timothy Frank Justicz; Adriana Lleras-Muney; Matthew J. Neidell |
| Abstract: | We provide the first causal evidence on how long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at contemporary ambient levels contributes to the development of chronic disease in a young, initially healthy population. Our analysis links detailed personnel records for roughly 150, 000 U.S. Army soldiers to high-resolution annual measures of PM2.5. Because soldiers enter service exceptionally healthy and receive uniform access to care, new diagnoses reflect pollution’s physiological impact rather than preexisting conditions or differential health care access. They are also required to relocate based on the needs of the Army, which provides us with quasi-random variation in initial duty-station assignments that we use as an instrument for average annual pollution exposure over a soldier’s career. We find that sustained PM2.5 exposure substantially increases circulatory disease, particularly hypertension, with mixed evidence on respiratory conditions that are sensitive to specification. Exposure over shorter durations, by contrast, has little detectable effect, a pattern consistent with the cumulative nature of pollution’s health burden. These findings demonstrate that even moderate long-term exposure to air pollution can erode health capital in ways that are invisible to studies focused on short-run variations or mortality alone, and they highlight the importance of regulatory standards that account for chronic exposure risks. |
| JEL: | I10 J10 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35871 |
| By: | Richard B. Freeman; Danxia Xie; Hanzhe Zhang; Hanzhang Zhou |
| Abstract: | We analyze the academic affiliations of nearly 6, 000 award-winning researchers in 18 major fields in the natural sciences, engineering, and social sciences from the 1820s to the 2020s, focusing on the 1960s onward. The analysis reveals a trend of declining concentration in the institutional affiliations of award-winning researchers, shifting from a few science-strong universities in high-income countries to a more diverse set of institutions across the world. The decline in concentration is observed in all fields except one: economics. The institutional affiliations of prizewinning economists have become more concentrated over time, making economics the most concentrated field. We associate the higher concentration of prizewinning work in economics with the field’s stronger sorting by institutional prestige, its lower reliance on specialized equipment and instruments, and its assessment of findings based on a synthesis of evidence rather than on decisive experiments or proofs. We discuss the benefits and costs of this high and rising institutional concentration of prizewinning economists. |
| JEL: | A11 A12 A14 I23 J44 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35875 |