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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Linda Vecgaile (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Juho Härkönen |
| Keywords: | Germany, United Kingdom, fertility, income, inequality, women |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-033 |
| By: | Britto, Diogo (Bocconi University); De Holanda, Caio (University of California, Berkeley); Ferman, Bruno (Sao Paulo School of Economics, FGV); Fonseca, Alexandre (Federal Revenue of Brazil); Sampaio, Breno (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco); Warwar, Lucas (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Does parenthood impair workers’ on-the-job productivity? We study this question and its implications for understanding the child penalties in employment observed for mothers. We focus on judges, a profession that helps overcome key empirical challenges: output can be measured precisely, it can be observed for all workers before and after childbirth because virtually no parent leaves the profession, and workloads are evenly distributed, limiting scope for selective task allocation. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find no evidence that mothers’ -- and fathers’ -- output declines during pregnancy or after they return from parental leave, and we can rule out moderate declines. We validate this result using a broad set of measures capturing both the quantity and quality of judicial work, and we document similar patterns for self-employed labor lawyers. Our findings show that motherhood need not reduce on-the-job productivity and suggest that, at least in some contexts, child penalties in employment may not be driven by lasting declines in on-the-job productivity. |
| Keywords: | child penalty, productivity, gender gap |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18658 |
| By: | J. Felipe Montano-Campos; Bryan Tysinger; Dana Goldman; Darius N. Lakdawalla |
| Abstract: | GLP-1 therapies for obesity promise substantial health improvements, but little is known about how their benefits vary across socioeconomic and demographic groups. Using a nationally representative microsimulation model of US adults and Shapely-value decomposition, we estimate the lifetime health and economic benefits of GLP-1 treatment and examine how those gains vary across individuals. The largest differences emerge across education. Individuals with less than a high school education experience experience roughly 14% higher gains in lifetime net social value, 16-17% larger improvements in discounted generalized risk- and severity-adjusted life-years (GRASA-QALYs), and 20% greater increases in life expectancy relative to the cohort mean, whereas individuals with college degrees experience gains 15-27% below the mean across these outcomes. Black and Hispanic individuals also tend to experience larger improvements in health outcomes and social value than White individuals, including larger gains in GRASA-QALYs and life expectancy and larger reductions in diabetes risk and duration. Females likewise experience larger predicted treatment gains than men. These patterns are consistent with the idea that the largest gains arise among populations facing greater socioeconomic constraints in sustaining behavioral weight control. GLP-1 innovation may therefore mitigate inequality in obesity-related disease and survival, advancing equity in population health. |
| JEL: | C63 D63 I12 I14 I18 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35296 |
| By: | Caitlin K. Myers; Ezekiel Hooper |
| Abstract: | The U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007, a sustained decline not readily explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors. We assess the potential role of a different shock: the diffusion of the smartphone. The U.S. rollout of the iPhone, the first modern smartphone, provides a natural experiment: from June 2007 through February 2011, the device was sold only on AT&T, allowing us to identify its effect from variation in AT&T’s mobile broadband coverage. Entropy-balanced Poisson and synthetic difference-in-differences event studies imply that access to the iPhone reduced births by 4.5–8.0% at ages 15–19 and 3.2–6.6% at ages 20–24, with statistically significant but smaller declines among older cohorts. Placebo analyses applied to Verizon and Sprint’s pre-2011 coverage footprint are null. Taken together, these cohort effects imply that the diffusion of the iPhone deepened the decline in births among women under 30 while suppressing the rise in births among older women. Overall, the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33–52% of the decline in the general fertility rate among women aged 15–44. National-survey evidence on time use and sexual behavior is consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency. |
| JEL: | J13 J18 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35310 |
| By: | Ha Trong Nguyen |
| Abstract: | This study is the first to use population-wide birth registration data spanning 18 years, linked to Census records, to examine the relationship between a comprehensive set of socioeconomic factors and the birth weight of more than 1.2 million children in Australia, both at the mean and across the distribution. Employing some of the most rigorous empirical approaches in the literature, including mother fixed-effects models, the study reports five main findings, several of which offer new insights for the literature. First, both maternal and paternal education are positively associated with children's birth weight, with stronger associations observed for maternal education and at the lower end of the birth weight distribution. Second, parental income exhibits a positive but non-linear association with birth weight, with larger effects among lower-birth-weight children. Third, relative to children living in rental housing, those born into families with mortgaged homes have higher average birth weights, whereas those born into families that own their homes outright have lower average birth weights. However, children from home-owning families exhibit higher birth weights at the lower end of the distribution but lower birth weights at the upper end. Fourth, more favourable local socioeconomic conditions are positively but non-linearly associated with birth weight, with stronger associations at the lower end of the distribution. Fifth, children born to mothers who migrated from low- or middle-income countries have lower birth weights than those born to mothers from high-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Birth Weight, Neonatal Health, Education, Socioeconomic Status, Administrative Data, Census |
| JEL: | I14 I26 J13 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1765 |
| By: | Jessica Donzowa (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniela Perrotta (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Dennis Feehan; Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Reliable fertility statistics are crucial for monitoring population dynamics, yet traditional data sources are often limited in low- and middle-income countries. This study evaluates a Facebook-recruited survey combined with network reporting to estimate fertility in Senegal. Respondents reported on members of their social networks to address undercoverage from limited internet access. Both respondent and network samples overrepresent younger and more educated individuals, while rural populations and those with lower education are underrepresented. Network reporting partially mitigates these gaps by including non-Facebook users. However, respondents and their network members remain similar to one another in terms of gender, age, and education. Total fertility rates (TFR) are approximated reasonably well, but age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) are less accurate: fertility is underestimated at ages 15–24 and overestimated at 35–49. Urban network estimates align better with DHS benchmarks than rural estimates. Thus, future development of this approach holds most promise in urban areas, where estimates could be improved through experimental testing of different network definitions, advertisement designs, and weighting adjustments to provide timely, low-cost directional fertility information. |
| Keywords: | Senegal, demographic and health surveys, fertility, network |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-030 |
| By: | Petra Landovska (Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Jana Votapkova (Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Population ageing and declining fertility challenge public pension systems and raise concerns about financial preparedness for retirement. While wealth accumulation depends on socioeconomic characteristics such as income, education, and health, family size may also shape long-term saving outcomes. Two competing mechanisms may operate: childrearing may reduce wealth accumulation through higher expenditures and lower labour supply, while parents may also accumulate wealth to secure retirement and support their children's transition to adulthood. Using data from Wave 9 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), this study examines the association between completed fertility and household wealth among individuals aged 50 and older in the Czech Republic. We analyze more than 2, 000 households using ordinary least squares regression with multiple imputation and Rubin's rules. The analysis tests for non-linear fertility effects, distinguishes between real and nancial assets, explores age heterogeneity, and conducts robustness checks using alternative wealth definitions and restricted age samples. We find that fertility is more strongly associated with the accumulation of real assets than with financial wealth, consistent with the Czech-specific preference for saving through housing and other real assets. We also observe cohort-specific patterns linked to the pronatalist policies of the 1970s in Czechoslovakia, highlighting the potential importance of policies that reduce the economic burden of childrearing for young families. However, institutional and cohort-specific contexts should be taken into account when interpreting these results. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Household wealth, Private savings, Old-age security, Czech Republic |
| JEL: | J13 D14 J14 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_12 |
| By: | Ji, Zihao; Zhang, Hongru |
| Abstract: | When do labor-market shocks become lasting health inequality? We develop and estimate a continuous-time lifecycle model of wealth, health, and skill in which medical care combines smooth maintenance with threshold-crossing repair. Adverse wage shocks push financially fragile households toward subsistence, increase toxic labor effort, delay repair, and convert temporary earnings losses into persistent biological damage. Estimated with PSID, MEPS, and RAND HRS data, the model shows that skill-biased technical change generates concentrated lower-tail losses in health, survival, and welfare. A meaningful share of this damage reflects endogenous repair failure, and the mechanism remains visible in a parsimonious general-equilibrium environment. |
| Keywords: | Life-Cycle Model, Continuous Time, Health Capital, Lifetime Inequality, Deaths of Despair, Overwork, Skill-Biased Technical Change |
| JEL: | E21 I14 I24 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128530 |
| By: | Oparina, Ekaterina (London School of Economics); Clark, Andrew (Paris School of Economics); Layard, Richard (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We use Gallup World Poll data from over 150 countries from 2009-2019 at both the individual and country levels to revisit the relationship between income and subjective wellbeing. Our inspiration is the paradox first proposed by Easterlin (1974), where higher incomes are associated with greater happiness in cross-sections, yet rising country GDP per head does not necessarily increase its average wellbeing. In our analysis subjective wellbeing (or happiness) is measured by the Cantril ladder on a 0-10 scale. Across individuals, other things equal, one unit of log income raises subjective wellbeing by 0.4 points. In other words, doubling income raises wellbeing by 0.3 points out of 10. Across countries, a crude regression of wellbeing on log per capita income gives a higher coefficient of 0.6. But, once social variables like health and social support are introduced, the picture changes. In rich countries, income no longer has a significant independent effect, either in country cross-sections or in time series. For low-income countries the result is also clear cut – income raises happiness in both cross-section and time series, whether the social variables are controlled for or not. For middle-income countries the result is mixed. |
| Keywords: | subjective wellbeing, income, GDP, Easterlin Paradox, public goods |
| JEL: | E01 H24 H41 I14 I31 O10 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18662 |