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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | D. Mark Anderson; Kerwin Kofi Charles; Daniel I. Rees |
| Abstract: | Whether medical innovation exacerbates or reduces racial health disparities remains an open question. We study surfactant replacement therapy (SRT), a life-saving intervention for premature infants with respiratory disorders. Before its approval by the FDA in 1989, premature Black infants were much less likely than their White counterparts to die from respiratory-related causes. Within a few years of FDA approval, the Black-White gap in respiratory-related neonatal mortality had essentially disappeared. Using 1980-2000 vital statistics data and non-respiratory-related mortality as a counterfactual outcome, we find that both Blacks and Whites benefited from the introduction of SRT, but White neonates experienced larger and more immediate reductions in mortality. We estimate that, by 1993, SRT had reduced respiratory-related mortality among White neonates by 46 percent, compared to 30 percent for Black neonates. These results are not explained by differences in health care access, as proxied by socioeconomic status or distance to the nearest neonatal intensive care unit. We conclude that racial differences in fetal pulmonary maturation, rather than barriers to access, likely drove the uneven impact of SRT on neonatal mortality. |
| JEL: | I14 I18 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35210 |
| By: | Allen Bradley; Lila Newberry Bradley; Julie L. Hotchkiss; Clare Ostle; Deborah Partey |
| Abstract: | Using the National Survey of Family Growth, this paper explores reasons behind the falling birth rate in the United States. The analysis confirms that newer generations of women are less likely to have any children than generations that came before. Comparing outcomes among women at the same age, two sources for this decline are identified: (1) a dramatic decrease in the desire to have children, but only among the youngest generation in the sample (Gen Z) and (2) an increase in the medical difficulty of having children among all generations of women since the Boomer generation. Various policies addressing both desire and difficulties are discussed in the context of a goal to arrest or reverse declining birth rates. The primary contribution of this paper is consideration of increasing medical difficulty in conceiving and bearing children (impaired fecundity) alongside the current dominant theory of shifting priorities and preferences of recent cohorts of women. |
| Keywords: | birth rates; total fertility rates; infertility; impaired fecundity; microplastic; IVF; family formation; Gen Z; cohorts |
| JEL: | J13 I19 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:103252 |
| By: | Biroli, Pietro (University of Bologna); Martin-Bassols, Nicolau (University of Bologna); Marees, Andries T. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); van Kippersluis, Hans (Tinbergen Institute; Erasmus University Rotterdam); A. Rietveld, Cornelius (Tinbergen Institute; Erasmus University Rotterdam); Arce, Pia (University of Zurich); Thom, Kevin (University of Iowa); von Hinke, Stephanie (University of Bristol); Vollen, Jeremy (Northwestern University); Galama, Titus (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | The start of a human's life can be characterized by two lotteries: that of your genes (nature) and the family you were born into (nurture). These set in motion a trajectory, from birth onward, in health and human capital. Leveraging three longitudinal social-science data sets, we systematically analyze the relationship between an individual's genotype, the socioeconomic status (SES) of the families they grew up in, and their realized traits in adulthood. We proxy an individual's genetic predisposition by polygenic indexes (PGIs) and family SES by a latent factor of parental education and father's (former) occupational status. We then investigate how PGIs, parental SES, and their interaction contribute to later-life outcomes across a range of forty-five socioeconomic, anthropometric, health, behavioral, and personality traits. We find strong genetic and socioeconomic associations with these phenotypes, but no evidence of sizable gene-environment interactions. |
| Keywords: | gene-by-environment interplay, genoeconomics, polygenic indices, social science genetics, ESSGN |
| JEL: | I14 I24 J24 D31 C38 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18607 |
| By: | Lu, Kelin; Wang, Chao |
| Abstract: | Fertility decisions are forward-looking and made within couples, yet little is known about how young couples perceive the consequences of childbearing. We survey 1, 800 respondents from paired Chinese one-child couples and elicit second-birth plans and expectations about life outcomes under alternative fertility choices, including consumption, wages, time burdens, and old-age support. We use these data to estimate a household bargaining model. Wives are more likely than husbands to oppose a second birth. The main driver of this disagreement is not wives' weak bargaining power, but gender differences in preferences over child quantity. Policy simulations show that public childcare, especially when it also reduces motherhood wage penalties, is more effective than cash transfers. The old-age value of children operates more through support in adverse health states than through financial transfers, but an additional child provides only limited extra insurance. These results show the value of measuring the beliefs and trade-offs that shape fertility decisions among current cohorts. |
| Keywords: | Subjective expectations, Fertility plans, Household bargaining, Pro-natalist policy |
| JEL: | D1 D7 J1 |
| Date: | 2026–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128947 |
| By: | Melanie Jones; Ezgi Kaya; Suzanna Nesom |
| Abstract: | Using an extensive expansion of pre-school childcare in Wales in 2019 this paper explores whether access to free childcare increases parental employment. Our analysis is based on two alternative identification strategies applied to rich household data from the Annual Population Survey. First, we use a regression discontinuity design to exploit eligibility cutoffs based on the child’s date of birth. Second, we apply a staggered difference-in-differences approach leveraging the phased spatial rollout of the policy during its trial period. We find no evidence of an impact of free pre-school childcare on parental employment using either approach. Moreover, this is true for mothers, parents with relatively low education and for parents whose youngest child is eligible, where more pronounced effects might be anticipated. Our evidence therefore questions the effectiveness of the policy in increasing parental employment. |
| Keywords: | parental employment, childcare policy, regression discontinuity design, staggered difference-in-differences. |
| JEL: | J13 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:26/03 |
| By: | Andrew, Alison; Bandiera, Oriana; Costa Dias, Monica; Landais, Camille |
| Abstract: | We explore gender inequalities in paid and unpaid work with a focus on the UK. The average working-age woman in the UK earned 40% less than her male counterpart in 2019; sizeable gender gaps in participation, hours worked and hourly wages all contribute to this gap. We explore how these patterns have changed over the past 25 years and conclude that after accounting for women’s rising education, progress has been modest. At the same time, women do far more unpaid domestic work than men. We show how inequalities evolve around parenthood and highlight how the division of labour between parents appears remarkably unrelated to relative earnings potential. We discuss consequences of our findings for material inequality and for the economy at large. We discuss the likely impacts of various current and potential policies, including parental leave, childcare and the tax and benefit system. |
| Keywords: | gender; inequality; labour markets |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J31 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137955 |
| By: | Ciccarelli , Carlo (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Marciante, Gianni (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | The role of womens education in driving the historical fertility transition remains poorly understood. Existing studies have focused on France, an early outlier, or on Prussia before the onset of its demographic transition. Less is known about the context where this effect is expected to be strongest: the onset of the transition in late transitioning countries. This paper fills this gap by studying the impact of womens education on fertility in Italy (1881 to 1921). Using original district level panel data, we exploit the interaction between proximity to the first female teacher training colleges opened under the Casati Law of 1859 and time fixed effects as an instrumental variable. IV estimates confirm a negative effect of education on fertility, operating through health knowledge and the economic independence that female teachers embodied. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:804 |