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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Guillaume Blanc and Romain Wacziarg (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | For most of human history, until the fertility transition, technological progress translated into larger populations, preventing sustained improvements in living standards. We argue that migration offered an escape valve from these Malthusian dynamics after the European discovery and colonization of the Americas. We document a strong relationship between fertility and migration across countries, regions, individuals, and periods, in a variety of datasets and specifications, and with different identification strategies. During the Age of Mass Migration, persistently high fertility across much of Europe created a large reservoir of surplus labor that could find better opportunities in the New World. These migrations, by relieving demographic pressures, accelerated the transition to modern growth. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp26-05 |
| By: | Gallen, Yana (Harris School, University of Chicago); Joensen, Juanna (University of Chicago); Johansen, Eva (the Chairmanship of the Danish Economics Councils); Veramendi, Gregory (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market impact of unplanned pregnancy among women using long-acting reversible contraceptives to delay pregnancy. While most women successfully delay, some have unplanned pregnancies, providing quasi-random variation in pregnancy timing. Analyzing linked health and labor market data from Sweden, we find that unplanned pregnancies halt women's career progression, resulting in income losses of 19% five years later. We find similar effects of unplanned births among women using short-acting reversible contraceptives. Using pregnancy as an instrument for birth in a dynamic treatment effect framework, effects of unplanned children are more detrimental for younger women and those enrolled in education. |
| Keywords: | labor market costs of motherhood, fertility, contraceptives, unplanned pregnancy |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18529 |
| By: | Alho, Juha |
| Abstract: | Abstract The recent drastic decline of fertility has further worsened the negative intrinsic growth of Finland. The country appears to be on a path towards decline. Net migration has kept the actual growth positive, especially because the migrants are younger than the receiving population. Their fertility has also been markedly higher. However, new data show that the fertility of the recent migrants has declined to the low level of native Finns. Graphics is used to describe the structure and development of Finland’s population. Short commentaries are associated with each of the approximately thirty figures. Aspects of population development that tend to be ignored in public discussion, are highlighted. Individual’s perspective is emphasized. Technical language is avoided, and there are no mathematical formulas. A short list of demographic terms, a list of suitable references, and details of the Statistics Finland source data, are provided. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Age distribution, Mortality, Migration, Population development, Finland |
| JEL: | J11 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:138 |
| By: | Laurens Cherchye; Bram De Rock; Frederic Vermeulen; Paula Eugenia Gobbi |
| Abstract: | Fertility has declined almost everywhere, yet the pattern of decline differs sharplyacross countries, education groups, and family forms. We argue that this heterogeneity is best understood through the value of marriage, that is, the surplus generated bypartnership relative to outside options. This surplus depends on preferences, the organization of work and childcare, bargaining positions, marriage market opportunities, social norms, and public policy. Children therefore do not simply enter utility; theyreshape both the gains from partnership and the way these gains are shared over time.Collective models enriched with marriage markets and limited commitment providea coherent framework for analyzing these mechanisms jointly. This perspective showshow similar fertility outcomes can emerge from very different underlying forces, such ashigh maternal career costs in one context and fragile unions with limited commitmentin another. It also highlights why structural models are essential for counterfactualpolicy analysis: they help isolate whether observed fertility patterns reflect changes inchildcare burdens, bargaining positions, or marriage-market conditions, and how thesemechanisms interact. |
| Keywords: | Value of marriage; fertility decisions; limited commitment; bargaining and intrahousehold allocation |
| JEL: | J12 J13 D13 C61 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/405189 |
| By: | Leon Huetsch; Dirk Krueger; Alexander Ludwig |
| Abstract: | We build a unified quantitative theory of increasing adult life expectancy and income growth in the last two centuries, and the emergence of a modern health sector in the 20th century. We interpret the data as three phases of a dynamic equilibrium in which households are initially poor, the price of health goods is prohibitively high, and life expectancy is stagnant. As technological progress fuels income growth, households commence consuming basic health goods and life expectancy rises in the first half of the 19th century. 100 years later, further directed technological progress leads to the emergence of a modern health sector. Through the lens of the model, the quality-adjusted relative price of modern health goods declined by about 2.5% per year between 1940 and 2020 while the model-implied relative price that lacks quality adjustment increases in line with the BEA health price index. Counterfactual analyses suggest that almost one fourth of adult life expectancy gains between 1940 and 2020 are attributed to the emergence and expansion of modern health and that public spending on health R&D during World War II played an important role in the kickoff of the modern health sector. |
| JEL: | E13 I15 O41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35092 |
| By: | Ortiz-Gervasi, Luis (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); McGuinness, Seamus (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Nussio, Benedetta (Università degli Studi di Trento) |
| Abstract: | This research improves our understanding of overeducation by highlighting its risks among middle-educated workers, especially the specific risk that motherhood may pose for job mismatch among them, compared to highly educated women. It employs random-effects and Heckman selection models with Mundlak correctors on 14 waves of the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Survey (UKHLS) to explore the relationship between overeducation, gender, and parenthood among middle- and highly educated employees. Overall, women are found to have a lower risk of overeducation compared to men. However, becoming a mother and having more children negatively impact the status of middle-educated women in comparison to both male workers and highly educated women. Additional evidence from the European Jobs and Skills Survey (2021) shows that jobs held by middle-educated individuals offer less job discretion than those held by highly educated workers. This lack of discretion may hinder the development of firm-specific or occupational skills that would enable women to maintain or enhance their job status after becoming mothers or having additional children. |
| Keywords: | overeducation, gender, level of education, parenthood, gender inequality, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | J10 J12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18518 |
| By: | Ewa Weychert (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences; University of Florence, Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications “G. Parenti” (DiSIA)); Daniele Vignoli (University of Florence, Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications “G. Parenti” (DiSIA)); Anna Matysiak (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Dorota Celińska-Kopczyńska (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Mechanics) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how climate news exposure relates to first-birth outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing on theories of imagined futures, individualized political engagement, and eco-anxiety, we examine whether and how exposure to climate-related media coverage is related to fertility behavior. We construct a novel index of climate news coverage using text mining and link it to individual-level longitudinal data from the UK Understanding Society survey. Results show that high exposure to climate news is associated with a lower probability of first birth, but only among individuals who express strong pro-environmental attitudes. In contrast, political identity and perceived long-term climate risk do not significantly moderate this relationship. These findings suggest that climate news coverage, which we use as a proxy for climate change narratives, is associated with fertility in a non-uniform way, shaped by moral and emotional mechanisms linked to current environmental concern. This study highlights the role of media-driven imaginaries in shaping life course decisions and contributes new evidence on the demographic implications of climate change discourse. |
| Keywords: | climate change, fertility outcomes, text mining |
| JEL: | J13 Q54 D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-11 |