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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Yana Gallen; Juanna Schrøter Joensen; Eva Rye Johansen; Gregory F. Veramendi; Juanna Schrøter Joensen |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market impact of unplanned pregnancy among women using long-acting reversible contraceptives to delay pregnancy. While most women successfully delay, some have unplanned pregnancies, providing quasi-random variation in pregnancy timing. Analyzing linked health and labor market data from Sweden, we find that unplanned pregnancies halt women's career progression, resulting in income losses of 19% five years later. We find similar effects of unplanned births among women using short-acting reversible contraceptives. Using pregnancy as an instrument for birth in a dynamic treatment effect framework, effects of unplanned children are more detrimental for younger women and those enrolled in education. |
| Keywords: | labor market costs of motherhood, fertility, contraceptives, unplanned pregnancy |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12586 |
| By: | Priyanka Anand; Tamar Matiashvili; Maya Rossin-Slater |
| Abstract: | Paid leave policies are designed to help workers balance work with caregiving responsibilities, yet research has focused predominantly on parental leave while the literature on non-parental caregiving leave remains nascent. This chapter reviews the evidence on the impacts of paid family leave (PFL) and paid sick leave (PSL) policies, with a focus on non-childbirth-related caregiving. We begin with an overview of the prevalence and challenges of informal caregiving in the US and internationally, followed by a description of the current paid caregiving leave policy landscape. We then review evidence on the impact of these policies on leave take-up, labor market outcomes, caregiver health and well-being, employer outcomes, and utilization of formal care. We find that paid leave policies have successfully increased leave take-up and that PFL improves labor market outcomes for workers with caregiving responsibilities, without adversely affecting employers. There is also some suggestive evidence of improvements in caregivers’ mental health. We additionally provide an update of the paid parental leave literature since it was last reviewed by Rossin-Slater (2018), describing the latest evidence on maternal health, child health and development, parental labor market outcomes, and employer outcomes. We conclude by identifying key gaps in the literature, including the lack of research on the outcomes of (non-child) care recipients, limited evidence on employer responses, and the underexplored role of PSL in supporting caregiving needs. |
| JEL: | I18 J13 J14 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34997 |
| By: | Petach, Luke |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between union membership and deaths of despair. Using state-level variation in the timing of the adoption of right-to-work (RTW) laws as a natural experiment, I show that right-to-work laws are associated with a decline in union membership and an increase in deaths of despair. Two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) differencein- differences (DiD) estimates suggest that the adoption of a right-to-work law is associated with an approximately 2.6 percentage point reduction in union membership at the state-level and an increase in deaths of despair mortality between 12 and 13 additional persons per 100, 000, suggesting that each percentage point decline in union membership is associated with approximately five additional deaths from suicide, drug overdose, or alcoholic liver disease per 100, 000 persons. I support the TWFE results with state-level estimates from the Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021) estimator and the Borusyak et al. (2024) estimator, which are robust to concerns about treatment effect heterogeneity and variation in treatment timing. Estimates from a county-level specification using the Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021) estimator similarly suggest that RTW laws increase deaths of despair mortality by 6 to 11 additional persons per 100, 000. |
| Keywords: | Labor Unions, Right-to-Work Laws, Deaths of Despair, Health Economics, Labor Economics |
| JEL: | J51 I12 I14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1729 |
| By: | Tadeja Gracner; Claire Boone; Patrick Turley; Paul Gertler |
| Abstract: | Genetics confer 2–3-fold higher obesity risk through inherited mechanisms affecting appetite and metabolism, with pathways particularly modifiable during the first 1, 000 days of life. We leverage the end of UK sugar rationing in September 1953, a sharp discontinuity in early-life sugar exposure by conception date, to examine whether sugar restriction mitigates genetically determined obesity risk using UK Biobank data linking an obesity polygenic index with adiposity phenotypes. Without rationing, high genetic risk individuals had triple the obesity prevalence of low-risk counterparts. Restriction through age two narrowed this disparity by 40%, operating through visceral rather than general adiposity, and was concentrated among high-risk adults with above-median adiposity levels. Early nutritional environments can alter inherited obesity trajectories, pointing to targeted early-life interventions to reduce genetically determined health inequalities. |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35005 |
| By: | Bernhard, Sarah (IAB Nürnberg); Bohmann, Sandra (DIW Berlin); Fiedler, Susann (WU Wien); Kasy, Maximilian; Schupp, Jürgen (DIW Berlin); Schwerter, Frederik (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management) |
| Abstract: | How does basic income (a regular, unconditional, guaranteed cash transfer) impact labor supply? We show that in search models of the labor market with income effects, this impact is theoretically ambiguous: Employment and job durations might increase or decrease, match surplus might be shifted to workers or employers, and worker surplus might be reallocated between wages and job amenities. We thus turn to empirical evidence to study this impact. We conducted a pre-registered RCT in Germany, starting 2021, where recipients received 1200 Euro/month for three years. We draw on both administrative and survey data, and find no extensive margin (employment) response, and no impact on on job transitions from either non-employment or employment. We do find a small statistically insignificant intensive margin shift to parttime employment, which implies an excess burden (reduction of government revenues) of ca 7.5% of the transfer. We furthermore observe a small increase of enrolment in training or education. |
| Keywords: | BASIC INCOME, RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL, LABOR SUPPLY |
| JEL: | I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-08 |
| By: | Lucia Torres Frasele (Health Economics, Policy and Innovation Institute, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effects of Menopause Hormone Therapy (MHT) on health and labor market outcomes among U.S. women aged 40–61. I leverage the MHT treatment arm of the first large-scale randomized evaluation of MHT’s effects on postmenopausal women’s health, which was stopped early due to elevated health risks and publicly announced in July 2002. The announcement led to a rapid global decline in MHT prescriptions, which I use as a quasi-exogenous shock. Using nationally representative U.S. data on prescriptions, health, and labor market outcomes, I apply difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, and fixed-effects approaches. Results show MHT significantly improves physical health, increasing physical functioning scores by up to one standard deviation, but effects on employment and wages are modest and sensitive to specification. |
| Keywords: | women’s health; menopause; aging; employment |
| JEL: | I12 J14 J16 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2026-01 |