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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Hanna Wang |
| Abstract: | I develop and estimate a life-cycle discrete-choice model of fertility and female labor supply to study the optimal design of a range of child-related policies. First, I examine two German reforms that introduced wage-contingent parental leave payments and expanded access to low-cost public childcare. I find that both reforms raised completed fertility, with the parental leave reform having a particularly strong impact on highly educated women. Second, I solve for a budget-neutral optimal policy portfolio that maximizes either aggregate welfare or fertility, while ensuring that welfare and fertility do not decline for any education group. I consider four prominent child subsidies as well as the degree of tax jointness. My results show that optimal policy has the potential to increase welfare by 0.5% or fertility by 5.7%. While the solutions are qualitatively similar, they prioritize different policy instruments depending on the specific objective being targeted. |
| Keywords: | fertility, parental leave, childcare subsidies, optimal policy |
| JEL: | H21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12416 |
| By: | Anna Matysiak (Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Linus Andersson (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Wojciech Hardy (Interdisciplinary Centre for Labour Market and Family Dynamics, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether long-term structural labour market change, driven by industrial robotization, has influenced family formation and union stability in Sweden. Linking Swedish population register data (1994–2017) with sector-level measures of robot penetration, we analyse transitions into first marriage, first, second, and third births, and divorce. We distinguish between current exposure to robotization among employed workers and residual exposure among individuals who exited employment in robotizing sectors. Event-history models are complemented by an instrumental-variable approach that exploits cross-national variation in robot adoption to strengthen causal interpretation. On average, we find only weak associations between robotization and family transitions. However, substantial heterogeneity emerges by educational attainment. Among low- and medium-educated women and men, higher exposure to automation is linked to lower birth risks, weaker marriage formation, and higher divorce risks. In contrast, highly educated individuals experience neutral or positive associations between automation and family formation, alongside greater union stability. We conclude that the aggregate contribution of structural labour market change caused by industrial automation to Sweden’s post-recession fertility decline appears limited, automation contributes to widening educational disparities in family trajectories and reinforces cumulative disadvantage across labour market and family domains. |
| Keywords: | labour market, technology, industrial robots, family, fertility |
| JEL: | J31 J13 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-5 |
| By: | Paula E Gobbi (ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles = Free University of Brussels); Anne Hannusch (Universität Bonn = University of Bonn); Pauline Rossi (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses. |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05496893 |
| By: | Maralani, Vida; Portier, Camille; Özcan, Berkay |
| Abstract: | This study investigates variability in women’s experiences balancing work and family, focusing on the association between early childhood investments and work trajectories. Using longitudinal data and event study models, we examine work participation from two years before to 10 years after first birth across different early childhood investment levels. Although sustained intensive investment is associated with the largest reduction in paid work, the relationship between child investment and work outcomes does not follow a simple “more investment, less work” pattern. Instead, investment intensity and duration both shape work trajectories. Women with more intensive short-term practices or moderate longer-term ones work at similar levels as women making lower investments. Patterns also differ by work outcome: not working is most differentiated by sustained intensive child investment, whereas hours worked are similar across a range of investment levels. Finally, women with constrained family resources consistently work more than those married to college-educated spouses. |
| Keywords: | women's employment; work-family conflict; early childhood investment; parenting practices; breastfeeding duration; early childhood reading |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137456 |
| By: | Mikko Silliman; Juuso Mäkinen |
| Abstract: | This paper provides large-scale evidence linking the economic effects of childcare programs to social skills measured in adulthood. We examine Finland's first national public childcare program, and document that it increased parental labor supply - through retirement - while reducing the intergenerational persistence of income. Critically, we leverage Finnish Defence Forces data on the near population of males to show that effects on children's adult income are underlied by lasting effects on social skills. Further, we show that life-cycle cost-effectiveness estimates based on the assumption of constant effects after typical observation windows can considerably overestimate the net costs of public childcare. |
| Keywords: | early childhood, social skills, parental labor supply |
| JEL: | J08 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12372 |
| By: | Achard, Pascal; Wagner, Sander |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies how motherhood penalties vary across firms. Using Dutch administrative employer–employee data we estimate firm-specific motherhood penalties in earnings, hours, wages, and labor force participation for 2, 877 firms. We document large heterogeneity: over the ten years following childbirth, mothers at firms in the 10th percentile of the penalty distribution experience earnings losses exceeding 50 percent, compared with about 20 percent at firms in the 90th percentile. Differences across firms are driven primarily by adjustments in hours worked. Firm-level variation in motherhood penalties rivals differences observed across countries, highlighting the central role of workplaces in shaping gender inequality. |
| Date: | 2026–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nmgxz_v1 |
| By: | Barschkett, Mara (University of Bonn); Tréguier, Julie (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of social security income on mental health. We focus on widowhood, a life event associated with large and persistent mental health declines, and exploit a reform of the Dutch survivor benefits system that introduced cohort-based restrictions in benefit eligibility. Using administrative data, we find that reduced access to survivor benefits increases antidepressant use by 9%, accounting for 35% of the overall rise in antidepressant use following spousal death. A mechanism analysis shows that survivor benefits stabilize mental health by smoothing living standards, highlighting the potential welfare gains from well-targeted income support policies. |
| Keywords: | widowhood, survivor benefits, mental health, antidepressant use, income security |
| JEL: | I12 J14 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18385 |
| By: | Elisabeth Preyer (University of Bern); Eric Strobl (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Despite stagnant economic and living conditions, early 20th-century colonial Jamaica experienced a remarkable increase in life expectancy — a phenomenon referred to as the Jamaica Paradox. One factor believed to be key in this transformation was the Hookworm Campaign (1919-1936), an island-wide, multi-faceted public health initiative to eradicate hookworm, a tropical parasite that can severely weaken the immune system. Using parish-level mortality data and an event study framework, we investigate whether the campaign reduced mortality rates in Jamaica. Results show that infant deaths declined by 10% in the first year, cumulating to 41% within ten years. Mortality among other age groups also fell, although with several years of delay and lower effects. Our estimates suggest that by WWII the hookworm eradication effort increased life expectancy at birth by 5-15 years. A `back of the envelope' cost-benefit analysis reveals that the benefits in terms of spared infant deaths alone were multiple times the campaign costs, where the local population shouldered much of the overall costs. |
| Keywords: | Jamaica, hookworm, public campaign, mortality |
| JEL: | I18 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0297 |