nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2026–03–02
seven papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin


  1. Parenthood and the Career Ladder: Evidence from Academia By Sofie Cairo; Ria Ivandić; Anne Sophie Lassen; Valentina Tartari
  2. Tracing the Genetic Footprints of the UK National Health Service By Nicolau Martin-Bassols; Pietro Biroli; Elisabetta De Cao; Massimo Anelli; Stephanie von Hinke; Silvia Mendolia
  3. More Hours, More Work: Head Start Expansions Boost Maternal Employment By Chloe Gibbs; Esra Kose; Maria Rosales-Rueda
  4. Potential and challenges for sustainable progress in human longevity By Florian Bonnet; Ina Alliger; Carlo Giovanni Camarda; Sebastian Klüsener; France Meslé; Michael Mühlichen; Josselin Thuilliez; Pavel Grigoriev
  5. Postpartum Depression and the Motherhood Penalty By Sonia Bhalotra; N. Meltem Daysal; Louis Freget; Jonas Cuzulan Hirani; Priyama Majumdar; Mircea Trandafir; Miriam Wüst; Tom Zohar
  6. Identification of Child Penalties By Dor Leventer
  7. Does reducing child benefits mean parents work more? A mixed-methods study of the labor market effects of the United Kingdom’s "two-child limit" By Stewart, Kitty; Andersen, Kate; Patrick, Ruth; Reader, Mary; Reeves, Aaron

  1. By: Sofie Cairo; Ria Ivandić; Anne Sophie Lassen; Valentina Tartari
    Abstract: Persistent gender gaps in the labor market are largely driven by the underrepresentation of women at the top of most professions. We study how parenthood shapes gender gaps in academic careers using population-wide administrative and survey data linked to productivity and promotion records. Parenthood marks a sharp divergence in academic careers: one in three women exit academia following motherhood. Men also experience a decline in academic employment after fatherhood, but the effects are substantially smaller. For mothers, childbirth leads to a persistent decline in both tenure attainment and research output, while men’s trajectories on these margins are unaffected by parenthood. The child penalty on tenure is driven primarily by women’s higher exit rates from academia. Gender differences in career aspirations do not explain these findings; instead, childcare and mobility constraints play a central role. Child penalties are exacerbated in highly competitive environments and environments without senior female role models.
    JEL: A11 D63 J13 J16 J44
    Date: 2026–02–18
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0092
  2. By: Nicolau Martin-Bassols; Pietro Biroli; Elisabetta De Cao; Massimo Anelli; Stephanie von Hinke; Silvia Mendolia
    Abstract: The establishment of the UK National Health Service (NHS) in July 1948 was one of the most consequential health policy interventions of the twentieth century, providing universal and free access to medical care and substantially expanding maternal and infant health services. In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of the NHS introduction on early-life mortality and we test whether survival is selective. We adopt a regression discontinuity design under local randomization, comparing individuals born just before and just after July 1948. Leveraging newly digitized weekly death records, we document a significant decline in stillbirths and infant mortality following the introduction of the NHS, the latter driven primarily by reductions in deaths from congenital conditions and diarrhea. We then use polygenic indexes (PGIs), fixed at conception, to track changes in population composition, showing that cohorts born at or after the NHS introduction exhibit higher PGIs associated with contextually-adverse traits (e.g., depression, COPD, and preterm birth) and lower PGIs associated with contextually-valued traits (e.g., educational attainment, self-rated health, and pregnancy length), with effect sizes as large as 7.5% of a standard deviation. These results based on the UK Biobank data are robust to family-based designs and replicate in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and the UK Household Longitudinal Study. Effects are strongest in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas and among males. This novel evidence on the existence and magnitude of selective survival highlights how large-scale public policies can leave a persistent imprint on population composition and generate long-term survival biases.
    Keywords: early-life, health systems, survival bias, infant mortality, genetics, polygenic Index, UK biobank, ESSGN
    JEL: I10 I38 C21
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12445
  3. By: Chloe Gibbs; Esra Kose; Maria Rosales-Rueda
    Abstract: Women’s employment remains highly sensitive to childcare constraints, making childcare availability a critical lever for supporting mothers’ labor force attachment. We study the effects of expanded full-day programming in Head Start, using the 2016 federal funding initiative that targeted grantees with low full-day enrollment. Linking administrative program data, geo-coded center locations, and household data on employment, we estimate a difference-in-differences design by comparing mothers of young children in treated and untreated areas. The policy increased full-day enrollment by 19 percent and raised single mothers’ employment (1.9%), hours (2.5%), and earnings (6.5%). Results show that extending program duration meaningfully improves maternal labor market outcomes.
    JEL: I28 J13 J22
    Date: 2026–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34831
  4. By: Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Ina Alliger (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research); Carlo Giovanni Camarda (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Sebastian Klüsener (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research, Universität zu Köln = University of Cologne, VDU - Vytautas Magnus University - Vytauto Didziojo Universitetas); France Meslé (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Michael Mühlichen (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research); Josselin Thuilliez (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pavel Grigoriev (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research)
    Abstract: Decelerating gains in life expectancy ( e 0 ) in high-income countries have raised concerns about the future of human longevity. To enhance our understanding of these developments, we examine subnational ( N = 450) mortality trends in Western Europe in the period 1992-2019. Between 1992 and 2005, gains in life expectancy were both substantial and widespread. Laggard regions experienced the fastest improvements, yielding rapid regional convergence. Between 2005 and 2019, however, gains in these regions decelerated, while remaining remarkably stable in vanguard regions, suggesting that it remains possible to continue extending longevity. The observed slowing of e 0 gains is strongly associated with mortality at ages 55-74, which increased in this period across large areas of Western Europe, particularly in Germany and France. In this work, we show that monitoring mortality trends at a fine geographical level is crucial for revealing both the potential for, and challenges to, sustainable progress in human longevity.
    Keywords: Europe, human geography, mortality changes, life span, life expectancy
    Date: 2026–01–24
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05481231
  5. By: Sonia Bhalotra; N. Meltem Daysal; Louis Freget; Jonas Cuzulan Hirani; Priyama Majumdar; Mircea Trandafir; Miriam Wüst; Tom Zohar
    Abstract: Using Danish administrative data linked to two independent, validated postpartum depression screenings, we study how postpartum mental health shocks shape women’s labor market trajectories. Event-study estimates show no pre-birth differences in trends between depressed and non-depressed mothers, but persistent employment gaps that widen immediately after birth. Health-care utilization patterns indicate that these differences reflect acute mental health shocks rather than pre-existing trends. The penalties are concentrated among less educated mothers and those in less family-friendly jobs. Our results highlight postpartum depression as a meaningful and unequal contributor to the motherhood penalty.
    Keywords: postpartum depression, motherhood penalty, labor market inequality
    JEL: I12 J13 J16
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12392
  6. By: Dor Leventer
    Abstract: A growing body of research estimates child penalties, the gender gap in the effect of parenthood on labor market earnings, using event studies that normalize treatment effects by counterfactual earnings. I formalize the identification framework underlying this approach, which I term Normalized Triple Differences (NTD), and show it does not identify the conventional target estimand when the parallel trends assumption in levels is violated. Insights from human capital theory suggest such violations are likely: higher-ability individuals delay childbirth and have steeper earnings growth, a mechanism that causes conventional estimates to understate child penalties for early-treated parents. Using Israeli administrative data, a bias-bounding exercise suggests substantial understatement for early groups. As a solution, I propose targeting the effect of parenthood on the gender earnings ratio and show this new estimand is identified under NTD.
    Date: 2026–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.07486
  7. By: Stewart, Kitty; Andersen, Kate; Patrick, Ruth; Reader, Mary; Reeves, Aaron
    Abstract: Child benefits can play an important role in supporting families during a life stage of increased household needs. However, they may also have negative effects on parental work incentives, potentially limiting any mitigation of child poverty. We examine the employment effects of a substantial benefit cut affecting larger families in the United Kingdom. The “two-child limit” restricted means-tested child benefits to two children only, affecting new births from April 2017. Using difference-in-differences models, we find no effect on employment at the extensive margin. Among coupled mothers already working, but not lone parents, we find small increases in working hours. Qualitative research with affected families helps make sense of these limited effects, indicating inelastic labor market responses resulting from a strong commitment to unpaid care, the challenges of caregiving responsibilities, and gaps in suitable child care. We further find that hardship linked to the policy may make labor market engagement harder for some parents.
    JEL: J08 J22 I38 H31 J13
    Date: 2025–03–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125878

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