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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Coskun, Sena (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dalgic, Husnu (Universität Mannheim); Özdemir, Yasemin (Universität Bayreuth) |
| Abstract: | "We document that women strategically sort into “family-friendly” sectors characterized by lower returns to experience but lower per-child penalties before the birth of their first child. This anticipatory sorting represents an ex-ante cost of motherhood that is entirely missed by conventional child penalty measures. We build a heterogeneous agent model of career choice and fertility to quantify this “sorting penalty.” Our central finding is that while the direct income loss from career sorting is small, this result reveals the high effectiveness of the primary tools women use to navigate motherhood: the quality-quantity (Q-Q) and time-expenditure (T-E) trade-offs. By providing empirical evidence for both margins, we show that women are not passive subjects of child penalties; they are active, strategic agents who utilize these finer trade-offs to realize family goals while mitigating career costs. Our findings highlight that because fertility and penalties are deeply endogenous, policy frameworks that exclude these trade-offs will fundamentally miscalculate the fertility responses and career costs of interventions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | E24 J13 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202602 |
| By: | Adriana Corredor-Waldron (North Carolina State); Janet Currie (Yale and NBER); Molly Schnell (Northwestern and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Black mothers with a trial of labor are 25 percent more likely to deliver by C-section than non-Hispanic White mothers. The gap is largest among mothers with the lowest risk and is reduced by only one-fifth when controlling for observed medical risk factors, sociodemographic characteristics, hospital, and physician or medical practice group. Remarkably, the gap disappears when performing a C-section is more costly due to a concurrent pre-labor C-section limiting surgical resources. This finding is consistent with provider discretion rather than differences in unobserved medical risk accounting for persistent racial disparities in delivery method. The additional intrapartum C-sections that occur among low-risk women when hospitals are unconstrained negatively impact infant health. |
| Date: | 2025–12–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2489 |
| By: | Daniel Ershov; Jessica Fong; Pinar Yildirim |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how online dating platforms have impacted marital outcomes, assortative matching, and sexually transmitted disease (STD) rates in the United States. We construct county-level measures of online dating usage using data from website-based platforms (2002–2013) and mobile app-based platforms (2017–2023). Leveraging county-level variation and an instrumental variable strategy, we show in the desktop era, a 1% increase in online dating sessions raises divorce rates by 0.50%, while in the mobile era, a 1% increase in online dating activity lowers marriage and divorce rates by 0.40% and 0.33%, respectively. We also document shifts in assortative matching. Desktop sites reduce sorting along education and employment dimensions, whereas mobile sites reduce sorting by employment, but increase sorting by race. Across both eras, we find no evidence that greater online dating usage increases average STD rates. Average effects are negative or statistically insignificant, but are positive for some subpopulations. We develop a search and matching model where technological changes that impact search costs, market size, and market noise can explain our empirical findings. |
| JEL: | L12 L16 M0 M1 M10 M13 M15 M20 M3 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34757 |
| By: | Janet Currie (Yale University and NBER); Bahadõr Dursun (Newcastle University and IZA); Michael Hatch (American University); Erdal Tekin (American University, IZA, and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of firearm violence on newborn health in the U.S. using two approaches. First, we analyze the "beltway sniper" attacks in 2002, leveraging both temporal and spatial variation to compare birth outcomes of exposed children to those unexposed. Second, we investigate in-utero exposure to mass shootings using national data. We find that exposure to these incidents during pregnancy increases the likelihood of very low-birthweight and very premature birth. These events carry a significant economic burden, with the beltway sniper attacks costing at least $155 million and mass shootings resulting in annual costs exceeding $75 million. |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2487 |