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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Milagros Onofri; Inés Berniell; Raquel Fernández; Azul Menduiña |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34749 |
| By: | Yang LIU |
| Abstract: | Contrary to conventional views, evidence from several countries shows that fertility does not always decline with women’s education due to the recent marketization of childcare, which may enable a positive relationship between women’s labor supply and childcare. Using the most recent individual-level data, this study provides the first evidence of a U-shaped relationship between education and fertility among married Japanese women, focusing on the period 2015-2020, during which market-based childcare expanded substantially in Japan. Compared to low-educated women, highly educated women exhibit both higher fertility and greater labor supply. In contrast, medium-educated women supply more labor than low-educated women but exhibit lower fertility. Unlike the U-shaped education–fertility pattern observed in the United States, labor supply continues to substantially reduce fertility among highly educated women in Japan, as well as among women with medium and low levels of education. Based on standard economic theory of fertility, the U-shaped association could be driven by differences in the relative sizes of the income and substitution effects across education groups. In addition, the U-shaped pattern is not observed for permanent immigrant women living in Japan; instead, their fertility increases with education, likely reflecting a slower pace of economic and social integration. Overall, the results suggest that policies promoting women’s human capital development may enhance both their fertility and labor supply in Japan, while obstacles for women balancing work and child-rearing still exist broadly in the country and more serious attention should be employed in tackling this issue. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26008 |
| By: | Xue, Melanie |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a structured approach for using genealogical records from FamilySearch to study Chinese historical demography. As a proof of concept, we focus on over 190, 000 digitized records from a single surname, drawn from many provinces and spanning multiple centuries. These lineage-based microdata include individual-level birth, death, and kinship information, which we clean, validate, and geocode using consistent rules and standardized place names. We begin by documenting descriptive patterns in population growth, sex ratios, and migration. Migration was overwhelmingly local, with longdistance moves rare and concentrated in a small number of lineages. Outmigration rose to a high point between 1750 and 1850 and then declined in later cohorts and generations. We then use the genealogical data to test specific hypotheses. Male-biased sex ratios—likely influenced by female infanticide—are strongly associated with higher rates of male childlessness. Migration rates fall sharply with patrilineal generational depth, offering micro-level evidence that clans became more sedentary over time. Together, these findings show how genealogical records can be used to reconstruct long-run demographic patterns and to assess social processes such as kinship, mobility, and reproductive exclusion. The approach is replicable and extensible to other surnames and regions as data coverage improves. |
| Keywords: | crowd-surfed genealogies; historical demography; China |
| JEL: | J11 J13 N10 N35 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129939 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B.; Davenport, Romola |
| Abstract: | This paper uses population smallpox mortality rates in eighteenth-century Sweden and the death toll from the 1707-9 smallpox epidemic in Iceland to estimate plausible ranges for the case fatality rate (CFR) of the deadly form of smallpox, Variola major, in both its endemic (Sweden) and epidemic (Iceland) form. We find that smallpox CFRs could be extremely high (40-53%) when smallpox was epidemic and attacked a population where both children and adults were susceptible as in Iceland. However, where smallpox was endemic and therefore a disease of childhood, as in Sweden, a better estimate of the CFR is 8-10%. This is far lower than the consensus CFR of 20% to 30%. Part of the differences between the CFRs studied here could be due to differences in the inherent virulence of smallpox in the two contexts. However, we argue that social factors are more likely to explain the differences. Where both adults and children were susceptible to smallpox, smallpox epidemics fundamentally disrupted household tasks such as fetching water and food preparation and prevented parents from nursing their sick children, dramatically increasing the CFR. Thus, when historians and epidemiologists give CFRs of smallpox, they should consider the population and context rather than relying on an implausible intrinsic CFR of 20% to 30%. |
| Keywords: | smallpox; epidemics; case fertility rate; historical demography |
| JEL: | N30 J10 |
| Date: | 2025–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128854 |
| By: | Basco, Sergi; Roses, Joan R. |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of pandemics is commonly studied using theoretical models that assume constant returns to scale and no factor movements. This article argues that a new economic geography model with increasing returns to scale and capital mobility better explains the effects of pandemics in modern economies. Our model predicts that pandemics shape where investments are made, leading to long-term impacts on economic development. To test this, we examine the consequences of the Great Influenza Pandemic on credit allocation and structural transformation in Spain from 1915 to 1929. Our research shows that credit growth was lower in regions with high mortality. Quantitatively, a one standard deviation increase in flu-driven mortality decreases credit (per capita) by 13.6%. We also document that this flu-driven reallocation of credit resulted in an increase in relative urban GDP in low mortality rate regions. A one standard deviation increase in flu-driven credit raises relative urban GDP by 9.5%. |
| Keywords: | pandemics; capital mobility; economic geography; structural change |
| JEL: | E32 N10 N30 N90 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128853 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B. |
| Abstract: | There is strong evidence that exposure to atmospheric pollution is detrimental to health. However, most current and historical research has focussed on the shortrun consequences of exposure to pollution on health, and historical researchers have not been able to assess the effects of pollution on a wide range of health indicators. This paper uses fog events at a daily level as a proxy for acute extreme pollution events in historical London (1892-1919). It tests whether exposure to fog at birth and at the time of sickness influenced a wide range of indicators of child health in the short and long term, including birth outcomes (birth weight, length, stillbirth, premature birth and neonatal death), mortality risk (mortality before age 15), growth outcomes (heights and weights in infancy, childhood and adolescence), and morbidity outcomes (incidence, prevalence and sickness duration from respiratory diseases and measles). Being born on a fog day did not have strong effects on birth or growth outcomes or on morbidity outcomes for upper respiratory diseases. However, being born on a fog day increased mortality risk from respiratory diseases and increased incidence, prevalence and sickness duration from measles, influenza and other lower respiratory diseases. I also find short-run effects of fog on sickness duration from influenza and measles. Overall, the mixed results suggest that atmospheric pollution caused significant ill health in historical London but only for limited dimensions of health. |
| Keywords: | ambient air pollution; morbidity; child growth; respiratory disease; health transition |
| JEL: | N33 I12 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128850 |