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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Christopher L. Foote; Ellen Meara; Jonathan S. Skinner; Luke R. Stewart |
| Abstract: | The education-mortality gradient has increased sharply in the last three decades, with the life-expectancy gap between people with and without a college degree widening from 2.6 years in 1992 to 6.3 years in 2019 (Case and Deaton 2023). During the same period, mortality inequality across counties rose 30 percent, accompanied by an increasing rural health penalty. Using county- and state-level data from the 1992–2019 period, we demonstrate that these three trends arose due to a fundamental shift in the geographic patterns of mortality among college and non-college populations. First, we find a sharp decline in both mortality rates and geographic inequality for college graduates. Second, the reverse was true for people without a college degree; spatial inequality became amplified. Third, we find that rates of smoking play a key role in explaining all three empirical puzzles, with secondary roles attributed to income, other health behaviors, and state policies. Less well-understood is why “place effects” matter so much for smoking (and mortality) for those without a college degree. |
| JEL: | I1 I12 I14 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34553 |
| By: | Samuel Berlinski; Guillermo Cruces; Sebastian Galiani; Paul Gertler; Fabian Gonzalez |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of a large public expansion of pre-primary education in Argentina. Between 1993 and 1999 the federal government financed the construction of new preschool classrooms targeted to departments with low base- line enrollment and high poverty, creating roughly 186, 000 additional places. We link administrative records on classroom construction to four population censuses and estimate difference-in-differences models that compare treated and untreated cohorts across high- and low-construction departments. An additional preschool seat per child increases post-kindergarten schooling by about 0.5 years, raising the probability of completing secondary school by 11.9 percentage points and of enrolling in post-secondary education by 7.1 percentage points. For women, access to the program also reduces completed fertility: an additional seat lowers the number of live births per woman by 0.18, and we find no evidence that selective migration biases these estimates. We find little impact on labor-market outcomes at the census date, consistent with beneficiaries still being in school or in the early stages of their careers. A benefit-cost analysis based on the estimated schooling gains, standard Mincer returns, and observed construction and operating costs yields a benefit-cost ratio of about 11 and an internal rate of return of 13%. Our findings show that universal at-scale pre-primary expansions in middle-income countries can generate sizable improvements in human capital and demographic outcomes at relatively low fiscal cost. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J38 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34552 |
| By: | Oded Galor; Daniel C. Wainstock |
| Abstract: | Is income inequality in the United States primarily driven by disparities between ethnic groups or within them? The evidence reveals a striking pattern: 96% of U.S. income inequality arises from variation within groups sharing common ancestral origins, far overshadowing the comparatively small share attributable to differences between these groups. This pattern remains remarkably stable across time and regions. |
| JEL: | D63 J15 O15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34558 |
| By: | Martin E. Andresen; Andreas R. Kostøl; Ross T. Milton; Corina Mommaerts; Luisa Wallossek |
| Abstract: | This paper examines monthly earnings volatility and its transmission to household earnings volatility using Norwegian data on the universe of monthly pay histories. We document substantial month-to-month earnings changes: within a job, while over one-quarter of months have no earnings changes, another quarter have at least a 23% change. Accounting for multiple jobs and non-employment increases volatility, while aggregating to households reduces volatility by 12-35%. Event studies around job loss and couple formation, along with decomposition and bounding exercises, show that most of this decline reflects pooling effects rather than sorting or responses to shocks. |
| JEL: | D13 D31 J12 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34563 |
| By: | Gloria Moroni (Ca'Foscari University of Venice); Cheti Nicoletti (University of York); Kjell Salvanes (Norges Handelshøyskole); Emma Tominey (University of York) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the economic effects of marriage, analysing its heterogeneous impact on the intra-household labour division following childbirth. Can marriage promote coordination of work and child activities between parents and a gender egalitarian division of labour? Using a marginal treatment effect framework, we find the average effect of marriage is to increase parental specialization and worsen the mother's child penalty. However, we find differences across couples with varying resistance to marriage. While traditional couples (low-resistance) exhibit increased specialization; in modern couples (high-resistance) fathers have an earnings penalty and take more paternity leave, suggesting more coordination and gender equality. |
| Keywords: | cohabitation, Marriage, specialization, cooperation, child human capital |
| JEL: | J11 J12 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2025-011 |
| By: | McLaughlin, Eoin; Whelehan, Niall |
| Abstract: | Civil registration of vital statistics was introduced in Ireland in 1864, yet historians have often viewed the resulting data as unreliable due to weak incentives for compliance and uneven administrative capacity. This paper reassesses the performance of Ireland's vital registration system by tracing its legal origins, documenting its institutional development, and re-evaluating its demographic accuracy. We show that the primary motivation for establishing civil registration was the protection of property rights, which shaped both the design of the system and the incentives facing registrars. New evidence on legal utilisation demonstrates that recourse to records of vital registration increased steadily and converged with usage rates in Britain, suggesting growing engagement with an expanding bureaucratic state in Ireland. Revisiting longstanding comparisons between registered vital events and decadal census enumerations, we find that death registration was generally robust and that irregularities in birth registration are considerably smaller than earlier studies imply. These results indicate that Irish civil registration is more reliable, and more suitable for empirical research, than the prevailing consensus suggests. Revised age-standardised mortality estimates further show that, once demographic structure is accounted for, Ireland's mortality trajectory was distinctive but not exceptional in comparative perspective. |
| Keywords: | civil registration, vital statistics, demographic measurement, state capacity |
| JEL: | N33 J11 K11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:334512 |
| By: | Giulia Klinges; Alain Jousten; Mathieu Lefebvre |
| Abstract: | Over the years, the Belgian social security system has undergone substantial reform with a prime focus on increasing older worker labor force participation. The paper explores the effect of past reforms on inequality in old age. We distinguish two separate effects: The mechanical effect considers the change in inequality and expected benefit levels due to the reforms for a fixed retirement age distribution. The behavioral effect accounts for the endogenous change caused by changes in the incentives to work. Our results show that mechanically, reforms have led to losses in expected benefits for all but the lowest income quintile. Behavioral changes had a positive but orders of magnitude smaller effect. Overall, inequality decreased as a result of reforms. |
| JEL: | D63 H55 I38 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34579 |
| By: | Grebol, Ricard (affiliation not available); Machelett, Margarita (Banco de España); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Villanueva, Ernesto (Bank of Spain) |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of intergenerational educational mobility and related distributional statistics in Spain. Over recent decades, mobility has risen by one-third, coinciding with pronounced declines in inequality and assortative mating among the same cohorts. To explore these patterns, we examine regional correlates of mobility, using split-sample techniques. A key finding from both national and regional analyses is the close association between mobility and assortative mating: spousal sorting accounts for nearly half of the regional variation in intergenerational correlations and also appears to be a key mediator of the negative relationship between inequality and mobility documented in recent studies. |
| Keywords: | assortative mating, intergenerational mobility, inequality, education |
| JEL: | I24 J12 J62 N34 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18351 |
| By: | Sarah Miller; Petra Persson; Maya Rossin-Slater; Laura R. Wherry |
| Abstract: | One in three births in the United States is delivered by cesarean section (c-section). This paper studies the labor market and health effects of c-sections, using newly linked administrative data that combines the universe of California birth records with mothers’ quarterly earnings. We analyze the impact of an intervention that reduced c-section rates among low-risk first-time births, and find that mothers exposed to the intervention appear to have a higher likelihood of employment in the quarter following birth, as well as a higher likelihood of returning to their pre-birth employer. These impacts attenuate over time—suggesting that a c-section primarily delays return to the labor market following childbirth—but attachment to the pre-birth employer remains higher five quarters post-birth. We find no evidence of significant impacts on maternal or infant health, indicating that the intervention-induced decline in c-sections did not come at the cost of worse outcomes. Further, among mothers who have another child, we find that exposure to the intervention at the first birth leads to a lower likelihood of c-section and preterm delivery at the second one, implying that both the economic and health benefits of reduced c-sections may compound with birth order. |
| JEL: | I14 I15 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34556 |