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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha; Mitrou, Francis |
| Abstract: | In light of growing concerns over escalating natural disaster risks and persistently low fertility rates, this paper quantifies the causal impacts of tropical cyclones and identifies the pathways through which they influence childbearing decisions among Australians of reproductive age. Using an individual fixed effects model and exogenous variation in cyclone exposure, we find a robust and substantial decline in fertility, occurring only after the most severe category 5 cyclones, with the effect weakening as distance from the cyclone’s eye increases. We find no evidence of delayed cyclone effects, indicating that the fertility loss attributable to these most severe cyclones is permanent. Our findings are robust to extensive validity checks, including a falsification test and various randomization tests. The fertility decline is most pronounced among younger adults, individuals with lower educational attainment, those childless at baseline, and those lacking prior private health or residential insurance. While physical health, financial constraints, and migration appear unlikely to drive the effect, the evidence points to reduced family formation, increased marital breakdown, child mortality, cyclone-induced home damage, elevated psychological stress, and heightened risk perceptions as plausible mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters; Cyclones; Fertility; Marriage; Australia |
| JEL: | D1 J1 J12 J13 Q5 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126989 |
| By: | Sonia R. Bhalotra; Damian Clarke; Atheendar Venkataramani |
| Abstract: | We leverage the introduction of the first antibiotic therapies in 1937 to examine the long-run effects of early-childhood pneumonia on adult educational attainment, employment, income, and work-related disability. Using census data, we document large average improvements across all outcomes, alongside substantial heterogeneity by gender and race. Among women, health gains led to changes in marriage and fertility that partially offset their labor market improvements. Among Black Americans, we uncover a pronounced gradient linked to systemic racial discrimination in the pre–Civil Rights era: individuals born in more discriminatory Jim Crow states realized much smaller gains than those born in less discriminatory states, despite larger reductions in pneumonia exposure. There is no similar gradient among white Americans. Together, these findings highlight the central role of institutional environments in shaping whether investments in early-life health translate into long-run socioeconomic gains. |
| JEL: | I0 I10 I14 I18 I3 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34606 |
| By: | Katrine M. Jakobsen; Thomas H. Jorgensen; Hamish W. Low |
| Abstract: | We study how fertility decisions interact with labor supply and human capital accumulation of men and women. First, we use longitudinal Danish register data and tax reforms to show that increases in wages of women decrease fertility while increases in wages of men increase fertility. Second, we estimate a life-cycle model to quantify the importance of fertility adjustments for labor supply and long-run gender inequality. Wage elasticities of women are more than 10% lower if fertility cannot be adjusted. Finally, we show that the long-term consequences of human capital depreciation around childbirth are an important driver of the long-run gender wage gap in the model. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; Labor supply; human capital accumulation; Gender inequality; Tax reform |
| JEL: | D15 H24 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:102277 |
| By: | Margaret Leighton (University of St Andrews); Irina Merkurieva (University of St Andrews) |
| Abstract: | This paper extracts aspirations from texts written in childhood by members of a British longitudinal cohort and explores how these relate to later life outcomes. Applying Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools to short essays collected at age 11, we identify four aspiration themes: family, hobbies, financial success, and career. The weight of these four themes varies substantially across respondents, with girls on average placing more weight on family, and boys on financial success. Aspirations extracted using our method are strongly predictive of later life outcomes, even when controlling for detailed measures of early life environment, ability, and family background. These associations are often highly heterogeneous by gender; for example, family-related aspirations are associated with higher educational attainment for men, but lower educational attainment for women. |
| Keywords: | Aspirations; Education; Natural Language Processing; NCDS |
| JEL: | J24 J26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:econdp:2505 |
| By: | Alexander Ahammer; Martin Halla; Pia Heckl; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | Long-term unemployment among older workers is particularly difficult to overcome. We study the impacts of a large-scale job guarantee program that offered up to two years of fully subsidized employment to long-term unemployed individuals aged 50 and above. Using a sharp age-based discontinuity in eligibility, we find that participation increased regular, unsubsidized employment by 43 percentage points two years after the program ended. The gains are driven by transitions into new firms and industries, rather than continued subsidized employment, and we find no evidence of displacement effects for non-participants or spillovers to family members. The program had no measurable short-run health effects. |
| Keywords: | long-term unemployment, temporary job guarantee, subsidized employment, health status |
| JEL: | J64 J08 J78 I14 H51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12340 |
| By: | Christopher Blair (Princeton University); Benjamin Krick (Duke University); Austin L. Wright (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | How does refugee return shape conflict in migrants’ destination communities? We argue that conditions inducing repatriation bear critically on the consequences of return. When refugees return because of worsening conditions in host countries, they are often marginalized and destitute. In this setting, mass return risks amplifying conflict in returnee-receiving communities. We test this theory leveraging the Trump administration’s sudden re-imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018. These “Maximum Pressure†sanctions decimated the Iranian economy and spurred mass return of Afghan refugees from Iran. Exploiting historical returnee settlement patterns and the plausibly exogenous timing of the sanctions, we estimate the causal effect of large-scale refugee repatriation on violence. We find that the returnee influx increased insurgent violence in returnees’ destination communities. We find suggestive evidence for an opportunity cost mechanism. Sanctions-induced currency depreciation reduced household incomes in returnee-receiving areas, lowering reservation wages and driving up insurgent recruitment. We also find evidence that Iran retaliated against the sanctions by escalating support for Afghan insurgent factions. While insurgent violence increased in repatriation communities, there was no effect on communal conflict. |
| Keywords: | maximum pressure sanctions; migrants; Afghanistan; Taliban; insurgent violence; economic shocks; conflict dynamics; forced displacement; sanctions policy; Iran |
| JEL: | F51 F22 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:39 |