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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Olympia Bover (CEMFI); Nezih Guner (BANCO DE ESPAÑA AND CEMFI); Yuliya Kulikova (OIST AND IIASA); Alessandro Ruggieri (CUNEF UNIVERSIDAD); Carlos Sanz (BANCO DE ESPAÑA AND CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | Family-friendly policies aim to help women balance work and family life, encouraging them to participate in the labor market. How effective are such policies in increasing fertility? We answer this question using a search model of the labor market where firms make hiring, promotion and firing decisions, taking into account how these decisions affect workers’ fertility incentives and labor force participation decisions. We estimate the model using administrative data from Spain, a country with very low fertility and a highly regulated labor market. We use the model to study family-friendly policies and demonstrate that firms’ reactions result in a trade-off: policies that increase fertility reduce women’s participation in the labor market and lower their lifetime earnings. |
| Keywords: | family-friendly policies, fertility, flexibility, search and matching, human capital accumulation, gender gaps, welfare |
| JEL: | E24 J08 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2547 |
| By: | F. Javier Rodríguez Román (University of Barcelona, BEAT); Lidia Cruces de Sousa (Goethe University Frankfurt) |
| Abstract: | Are financial incentives effective in increasing fertility rates? Empirical evidence suggests they are, primarily in the short run (around implementation). Can such policies also increase the total number of children in the long run? We address this question by using a structural life-cycle model of fertility and labor supply, calibrated to replicate the short-run effects of a cash transfer paid at childbirth implemented in 2007 in Spain. The model incorporates labor market duality, a defining feature of Spanish labor markets that negatively impacts fertility. Our calibrated model replicates a 6% increase in fertility rates in the short run but only generates a 3% rise in completed fertility over women’s lifetimes—the long run. Eliminating labor market duality increases lifetime fertility by 6.62%, but the discrepancy between short- and long-run effects of the incentive persists. These results highlight the limited impact of financial incentives alone to sustain fertility gains. |
| Keywords: | Cash Transfers, Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, Dual Labor Markets, Life-Cycle |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:481web |
| By: | Holthaus, Krista L.H.; Nuevo-Chiquero, Ana (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study within-family differences by order of birth in survival and longevity in 19th century Netherlands. Using existing matched birth and death records from the Dutch provinces of Groningen and Drenthe, we report no significant differences in survival to ages 5 or 18 or longevity for those reaching adulthood by their order of birth among all siblings. When we allow the effect to vary by gender of the individual and of the older siblings, we find a small negative (positive) effect driven by same-(different-)gender older siblings, suggesting certain within-gender competition on survival. The effects, however, are small -- around 0.5 percentage points on survival levels above 75\% -- and are consistently restricted to early life. Longevity, once the individual reaches adulthood, is not consistently correlated with birth order for more flexible specifications. Importantly, we do not detect any differences by socio-economic status as captured by the father's occupation, nor do we observe a particular trend over time. This lack of observable differences by socio-economic status is noteworthy, especially given the radical changes during the study period, suggesting that it was homogeneously distributed by order of birth. |
| Keywords: | historical data, demographic transition, birth order, the Netherlands |
| JEL: | N33 I14 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18298 |
| By: | Isabella Marinetti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Dmitri A. Jdanov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); France Meslé; Domantas Jasilionis (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Fanny Janssen |
| Abstract: | Background: Seasonal fluctuations in mortality significantly affect population health and remain an important public health challenge. As climate change increases temperature extremes and ageing populations heighten vulnerability, understanding the cause-specific drivers of these mortality fluctuations is increasingly urgent. Yet, detailed evidence on how different causes of death shape these mortality patterns remains limited. Data and Methods: We analysed monthly mortality data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics, disaggregated by cause of death, sex, and 5-year age groups, 2004-2019. Excess mortality for 17 major causes of death was quantified by comparing the observed age-standardised death rate (SDR) with the baseline SDR, defined as the average of the three months with the lowest mortality each year. We estimated both the absolute and relative impact of cause-specific mortality on overall seasonal mortality. Results: Heart and respiratory diseases were the leading contributors to excess mortality, accounting for approximately 40% and 15% of the intra-annual burden, respectively. The summer months exhibited significantly smaller excess mortality. Respiratory diseases showed the highest relative impact compared to the other causes of death. While baseline mortality decreased over time, the relative intra-annual burden remained stable or increased for specific causes, indicating persistent or growing seasonal vulnerabilities. Conclusion: Intra-annual mortality fluctuations in Italy were mainly driven by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and have remained stable over time despite improvements in overall mortality. These persistent patterns highlight unmet seasonal vulnerabilities and the importance of integrating cause-specific seasonality into health planning, particularly in light of ageing populations and climate change challenges. Keywords: Seasonal mortality; Causes of death; Excess mortality; Italy |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-036 |
| By: | Daniela Del Boca; Luca Favaro; Chiara Pronzato |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of "Equilibri" a program designed to support mothers of children under 18 in Italy’s Piedmont region. The program is specifically aimed to help women who have reduced or stopped working due to motherhood to achieve better work-life balance by improving both employment and work-family outcomes. The evaluation, conducted via randomized control trial, shows positive impacts on employment and work-family balance. Women in the treatment group participated in professional courses, informal meetings, reconciliation support and extracurricular activities for their children. According to the results of our evaluation the program had a positive impact on mothers’ employment, work-life balance as well as children well-being. Furthermore, a greater proportion of women in the treatment group expressed a desire to have another child. |
| Keywords: | work, mothers, randomized control trial |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12309 |
| By: | Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Dang, Tung; Fisher, Hayley (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data on Australian daycare centers and a triple-difference design, we examine the impact of daycare availability and quality ratings on childcare utilization and mothers’ labor market outcomes. We document a substantial positive impact of daycare availability and higher quality ratings on formal care usage and mothers’ employment and earnings. The effect of quality ratings is particularly pronounced among high-income, more-educated, and first-time mothers, whose perceptions of local daycare quality are most responsive to changes in ratings. Our findings underscore the important roles of childcare quality, in addition to accessibility, in shaping families’ childcare choices and mothers’ employment decisions. |
| Keywords: | earnings, employment, utilization, quality, childcare, administrative data |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18300 |