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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Nguyen, Ha Trong; Mitrou, Francis |
| Abstract: | In light of growing concerns over escalating natural disaster risks and persistently low fertility rates, this paper quantifies the causal impacts of tropical cyclones and identifies the pathways through which they influence childbearing decisions among Australians of reproductive age. Using an individual fixed effects model and exogenous variation in cyclone exposure, we find a robust and substantial decline in fertility, occurring only after the most severe category 5 cyclones, with the effect weakening as distance from the cyclone's eye increases. We find no evidence of delayed cyclone effects, indicating that the fertility loss attributable to these most severe cyclones is permanent. Our findings are robust to extensive validity checks, including a falsification test and various randomization tests. The fertility decline is most pronounced among younger adults, individuals with lower educational attainment, those childless at baseline, and those lacking prior private health or residential insurance. While physical health, financial constraints, and migration appear unlikely to drive the effect, the evidence points to reduced family formation, increased marital breakdown, child mortality, cyclone-induced home damage, elevated psychological stress, and heightened risk perceptions as plausible mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters, Cyclones, Fertility, Marriage, Australia |
| JEL: | J12 J13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1694 |
| By: | Gobbi, Paula (Université Libre de Bruxelles); Hannusch, Anne (University of Bonn); Rossi, Pauline (CREST) |
| Abstract: | Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses. |
| Keywords: | marriage, family institutions, fertility, inheritance |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18262 |
| By: | Rachel Y. L. Fung (Department of Economics, University of Missouri); Lauren Hoehn-Velasco (Department of Economics, Georgia State University); Michael F. Pesko (Department of Economics, University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | Cigarette smoking, a leading cause of preventable death in the United States, rose to widespread popularity in the early 20th century. Between 1893 and 1921, sixteen states enacted laws prohibiting the sale of cigarettes, but all such bans were repealed by 1927. We examine the impact of these repeals using data from the U.S. Veterans Mortality (Dorn) Study, collected in the 1950s, which allows for a retrospective analysis of early cigarette use. Using a staggered adoption difference-in-differences design, we find that repealing cigarette bans increased smoking initiation before ages 20 and 25 by over 13%. We also show that the distribution of cigarettes to soldiers during World War I increased smoking uptake and later-life mortality among men from states with active bans at the time of enlistment. Taken together, our findings suggest that the abandonment of early efforts to restrict cigarettes had long-lasting consequences for health. |
| Keywords: | Cigarette regulations; smoking; long-term; mortality. |
| JEL: | I12 I18 N31 N32 N41 N42 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2513 |
| By: | Stefanie J. Fischer; Shuhei Kaneko; Heather Royer; Corey D. White |
| Abstract: | Cesarean section rates vary widely across U.S. counties, yet it remains unclear how much of this variation reflects demand-side factors (such as patient risk or preferences) versus supply-side factors (such as physician practices or hospital incentives). We develop a new empirical strategy to isolate the influence of supply-side forces. Exploiting hospital obstetric unit closures from 1989–2019 that reallocate some mothers to counties with different C-section rates, we find that a one–percentage-point increase in the delivery county’s rate raises a mother’s likelihood of a C-section by roughly one point. The results point to a dominant role for provider behavior and local practice norms in driving geographic variation in C-section use, the most common major surgery in the United States. |
| JEL: | I18 I38 J08 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34469 |