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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Jason Fletcher; Hamid Noghanibehambari |
| Abstract: | Several competing theories in a number of disciplines point to a possible influence of fertility history on health and mortality. However, the direction of effects is theoretically a-priori unknown and the empirical evidence is also inconclusive. This paper examines the effects of fertility during midlife on later-life longevity using Social Security Administration death records linked with the full-count 1940 census. We tackle endogeneity and selection concerns in the longevity-fertility association by implementing an instrumental variable based on the sex composition of first two children. Our findings indicate that having an extra child is linked to a decrease in women’s longevity by approximately 5 months. Men, on the other hand, experience smaller and insignificant reductions in longevity of about 3.3 months. This divergence in effects suggests that biological factors may play a small role in the relationship between fertility and later-life longevity. |
| JEL: | I1 J13 N0 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34378 |
| By: | Ziwei Rao; Julia Hellstrand (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Understanding how education policies influence fertility behavior may reveal how education can shape population trends. However, the long-term demographic effects of structural reforms, such as school tracking – separating students into vocational or academic paths – remain underexplored. This study uses Finnish population register data to evaluate the fertility responses to a Finnish comprehensive school reform implemented in the 1970s that offers a unique opportunity to study completed fertility over the entire lifespan. The reform replaced the existing two-track system with a uniform nine-year comprehensive school, thereby delaying the age at which pupils are selected into vocational and academic tracks. Adopting a difference-in-differences method that is robust to heterogeneous effect and multiple treatment timing, this study explores the time-varying dynamic impact of the reform. The findings indicate increased lifetime childlessness and delayed age at first birth. The reform was also associated with higher educational attainment and reduced prevalence of vocational tracks. Further analysis suggests that the greater childlessness and delayed childbearing were likely driven by weaker early-life labor market performance following non-vocational education. This paper contributes to the literature on the education-fertility nexus by showing that education policies that delay tracking age and reduce emphasis on vocational education may unexpectedly shape the fertility landscape. Keywords: fertility, education policy, educational tracking, early-life employment |
| Keywords: | educational policy, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-030 |
| By: | Martha J. Bailey; Emilia Brito Rebolledo; Deniz Gorgulu; Kelsey Figone; Vanessa W. Lang; Alexa Prettyman; Vanessa Dalton |
| Abstract: | We use a randomized controlled trial to examine how the costs of contraception affect method choice, pregnancy, abortion, and childbirth among U.S. women. The study recruited women seeking care through Title X—a national family planning program subsidizing reproductive health services for low-income Americans—and randomized vouchers making the full spectrum of available contraception highly discounted or free. We find that subsidizing contraception has large and persistent effects on the choice of contraceptive method, resulting in significantly fewer pregnancies and abortions within two years. Subsidizing contraception negatively affected births, but the effect was not significant at two years. |
| JEL: | I14 I18 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34400 |
| By: | Cristina Bellés-Obrero; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Han Ye |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the mortality effects of delaying retirement by leveraging the 1967 Spanish pension reform, which exogenously increased the earliest voluntary claiming age from 60 to 65 based on individuals’ date of first contribution. Using Spanish administrative data, we find that removing access to early retirement delays age at last employment by 4 months and increases the probability of death between ages 60 and 69 by 11 percent. The mortality effects are concentrated among workers in physically demanding, high-psychosocial-burden, and low- skilled occupations, while men and women are affected similarly. Access to flexible retirement mitigates the adverse effects of delaying retirement. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneity , mortality , early retirement , delaying retirement , work conditions |
| JEL: | I10 I12 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1924 |