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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Sébastien Fontenay; Libertad González |
| Abstract: | We propose that men's reluctance to increase their participation in childcare and household chores is an important factor keeping both fertility and women's employment low in Europe. We first show that, over time, European women express a stronger desire for men increasing their participation in home production. This trend is not observed for men. We propose a toy model of the household that illustrates how men's refusal to contribute to childcare can have negative effects on both fertility and women's labor supply. Finally, we use cross-country panel data and a two-way fixed effects specification to show that countries where the gender divergence in attitudes is more pronounced display both lower birth-rates and lower female employment rates. |
| Keywords: | female labor force participation, fertility, gender norms |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1506 |
| By: | Hanna Wang |
| Abstract: | I develop and estimate a life-cycle discrete-choice model of fertility and female labor supply to study the optimal design of a range of child-related policies. First, I examine two German reforms that introduced wage-contingent parental leave payments and expanded access to low-cost public childcare. I find that both reforms raised completed fertility, with the parental leave reform having a particularly strong impact on highly educated women. Second, I solve for a budget-neutral optimal policy portfolio that maximizes either aggregate welfare or fertility, while ensuring that welfare and fertility do not decline for any education group. I consider four prominent child subsidies as well as the degree of tax jointness. My results show that optimal policy has the potential to increase welfare by 0.5% or fertility by 5.7%. While the solutions are qualitatively similar, they prioritize different policy instruments depending on the specific objective being targeted. |
| Keywords: | childcare subsidies, fertility, optimal policy, parental leave |
| JEL: | H21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1507 |
| By: | Olympia Bover (CEMFI); Nezih Guner (CEMFI); Yuliya Kulikova (Bank of Spain); Alessandro Ruggieri (CUNER Universidad); Carlos Sanz (Banco de Espana) |
| Abstract: | Family-friendly policies aim to help women balance work and family life, encouraging them to participate in the labor market. How effective are such policies in increasing fertility? We answer this question using a search model of the labor market where firms make hiring, promotion, and firing decisions, taking into account how these decisions affect workers’ fertility incentives and labor force participation decisions. We estimate the model using administrative data from Spain, a country with very low fertility and a highly regulated labor market. We use the model to study family-friendly policies and demonstrate that firms' reactions result in a trade-off: policies that increase fertility reduce women's participation in the labor market and lower their lifetime earnings. |
| Keywords: | flexibility, search and matching, human capital accumulation, gender gap, welfare |
| JEL: | E24 J08 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2025-006 |
| By: | Hamid Noghanibehambari; Jason Fletcher |
| Abstract: | An old and debated line of research examines the income-mortality relationship and finds mixed evidence. In this paper, we re-evaluate previous studies using a new dataset and implementing a difference-in-difference model based on a Notch in Social Security retirement benefits to overcome selection and endogeneity issues. We employ Social Security Administration death records and find a positive income-longevity relationship. Moreover, we find more pronounced effects among low-educated individuals and people from low socioeconomic status families. Analyses using census data suggest that part of the reductions in retirement income are offset by wage income due to post-retirement labor force participation. Past age 80, the net adverse effects of the policy on both income and longevity become more pronounced. |
| JEL: | H40 H50 I1 I18 J1 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34199 |
| By: | Paolo Giovanni Piacquadio |
| Abstract: | This paper characterizes a novel class of welfare criteria for settings with endogenous population. The core innovation is to treat parents’ fertility preferences as ethically relevant, deferring to them on the quality--quantity trade-off under conditions of equality. The resulting family of criteria generalizes discounted utilitarianism by reconciling respect for parents' fertility preferences with equity across generations. These criteria resolve long-standing normative dilemmas that afflict existing approaches to population ethics, such as total and average utilitarianism. After formal characterization, I illustrate the criterion in stylized examples and a Barro–Becker environment. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational justice, fertility preferences, exponentially-discounted utilitarianism, social welfare |
| JEL: | D60 D70 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12106 |
| By: | Jong-Wha Lee; Eunbi Song |
| Abstract: | This study examines the factors underlying the sharp decline in marriage and fertility rates by integrating microdata analysis with a structural macroeconomic model. Drawing on 25 years of individual-level panel data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, it employs discrete-time survival models to examine how individual and regional factors influence the incidence of first marriage and childbirth. The findings show that rising educational and marriage-related expenses significantly reduce the likelihood of marriage, whereas increased female labor force participation and escalating child education costs are associated with lower probabilities of childbirth. These empirical patterns motivate a dynamic overlapping-generations model with endogenous family formation, human capital investment, and intra-household bargaining. The model incorporates gender-based differences in partner matching and household labor, which influence time allocation and marriage utility, particularly for college-educated women. Simulation results indicate that rising marriage and child-rearing costs have been the primary drivers of declining family formation since 1990, while increases in women’s education have played a modest role. The findings further suggest that a package of targeted policies--such as childcare and education support, marriage-cost subsidies, and gender-equalizing reforms in households and the labor market--could raise the fertility rate from 0.75 to around 1.2, a level comparable to that of other low-fertility advanced countries. |
| Keywords: | growth, fertility, gender equality, human capital accumulation, marriage, Korea |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J12 J13 J71 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-51 |
| By: | Maria De Paola; Roberto Nisticò; Vincenzo Scoppa |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of co-workers’ fertility on individual fertility decisions. Using matched employer-employee data from Italian social security records (2016–2020), we estimate how fertility among co-workers of similar age and occupation affects the individual likelihood of having a child. We exploit variation introduced by the 2015 Jobs Act, which reduced fertility among workers hired under weaker employment protection. Focusing on workers hired before the reform and using the share of colleagues hired after the reform as an instrument for peer fertility, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in peer fertility raises individual fertility by 0.4 percentage points (a 10% increase). Heterogeneity analysis suggests that while social influence and social norms are key mechanisms, information sharing and career concerns, particularly among women, tend to moderate the response. Our findings highlight how changes in employment protection may have unintended fertility spillovers through workplace social interactions. |
| Keywords: | career concerns, EPL, fertility, social learning, social norms, workplace |
| JEL: | C3 J13 J65 J41 M51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12131 |
| By: | Sjoerd van Alten; Silvia H. Barcellos; Leandro Carvalho; Titus J. Galama; Marina Aguiar Palma |
| Abstract: | Progress in understanding the role of genetics in intergenerational socioeconomic persistence has been hampered by challenges of measurement and identification. We examine how the genetics of one generation influences the SES of the next by linking genetic data from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort to tax records for 2006-2022. Our genetic measure is the polygenic index (PGI) for educational attainment. To isolate causal genetic effects, we exploit randomness in genetic transmission across generations. One generation’s genetics impacts the education, income, and wealth of the next. A 10-percentile increase in one generation’s PGI raises next generation’s education by 0.11 years. “Next-generation genetic effects” are also large relative to “same-generation genetic effects”: a 10-percentile increase in a person’s PGI raises their income by 0.9 percentiles and their child’s by 0.7 percentiles, indicating strong persistence across generations. We next turn to mechanisms: about half of next-generation genetic effects reflect direct genetic inheritance (“genetic transmission”). The remainder operates through environmental pathways (“genetic nurture”): one generation’s genetics shapes the circumstances in which the next is raised. This environmental channel is reinforced by assortative mating: high-PGI individuals select more-educated, higher-earning partners. Our findings underscore that genetics is one of the forces anchoring SES across generations. |
| JEL: | J6 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34208 |
| By: | Ludovica Ciasullo; Martina Uccioli |
| Abstract: | We provide the first causal evidence that changes to work arrangements – in the form of greater schedule regularity – can reduce the child penalty in earnings for women. The Australian 2009 Fair Work Act explicitly entitled parents of young children to request a change in work arrangements. Leveraging variation in the timing of the law, timing of childbirth, and the bite of the law across different occupations and industries, we establish three main results. First, new mothers used the Fair Work Act to maintain a regular schedule while reducing hours upon childbirth. Second, thanks to increased regularity, working mothers’ child penalty declined from a 47 to a 38 percent drop in hours worked. Third, while this increase in maternal labor supply implies a significant shift towards equality in the female- and male-shares of household income, we do not observe any changes in the female share of home production. |
| Keywords: | child penalty, work arrangements, division of home production |
| JEL: | J16 J22 J18 J81 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12105 |