nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2025–08–11
three papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin


  1. Rethinking children’s family complexity: a multi-conceptual approach with dynamic sequence analysis and fixed effects models By Carla Rowold; Martin Gädecke; Zachary Van Winkle
  2. Changing landscapes of parenthood: childbearing among same-sex and different-sex couples in the Nordic countries By Maria Ponkilainen; Elina Einiö; Martin Kolk; Peter Fallesen; Fartein Ask Torvik; Maria Lyster Andersen; Mikko Myrskylä
  3. Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Interplay Between Policy, Culture, and Intra-Household Bargaining By Matthew Collins; Eleonora Guarnieri; Helmut Rainer

  1. By: Carla Rowold (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Martin Gädecke; Zachary Van Winkle
    Abstract: Objective: The association between a wide range of family complexity indicators and children’s educational outcomes was assessed. Background: Previous research documented a negative impact of disadvantageous family transitions and family instability on children’s educational outcomes. However, there is a theoretical and empirical debate surrounding the most appropriate measure of family complexity during childhood. Method: Numerous theoretically conceptualized sequence-based complexity measures are applied to parents’ life history data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, which were linked to children’s test scores in the National Pupils Dataset. Average within-child change in boys’ and girls’ math and English tests scores following change in mothers’ and fathers’ family complexity were estimated with fixed-effects regressions. Results: Family complexity measures were largely found to be negatively associated with children’s academic performance, however with differences across indicators. The number of transitions as well as the uncertainty and sum of disadvantage indicators were most tightly associated with children’s test scores. In addition, results varied by parents’ and children’s gender. For example, family complexity for fathers was often positively associated with children’s educational outcomes and associations were often stronger for boys compared to girls. Conclusion: Findings highlight the importance of theoretically derived measures of family complexity. In this study, measures associated with family instability and parental absence were shown to be most strongly linked with children’s educational outcomes.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-022
  2. By: Maria Ponkilainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Elina Einiö (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Martin Kolk (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Peter Fallesen; Fartein Ask Torvik; Maria Lyster Andersen; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The Nordic countries of Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland were among the first countries to acknowledge same-sex couples' partnership and parenthood rights in their legislations. In this comparative paper, we explore trends over time in the share of female same-sex and different-sex couples that have children following their legal union and variation by socioeconomic status. Using harmonized register data, we assess couples' likelihood of having a child over time, with a focus on education and income. We find strong increases in female couples' likelihood of having a child, resulting in sharply increasing prevalence, approaching near parity with different-sex couples in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway around 2010. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its later and less steep increase. Higher education is associated with a higher likelihood of having a child, whereas we find a less clear gradient by income level. We suggest that legal changes have made same-sex parenthood more achievable in the Nordic countries, that these legal changes are concurrent with an increase in parenthood, and that female couples today are nearly as likely to have children following a legal union as different-sex couples.
    Keywords: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, childbearing, homosexuality, legislation, parenthood
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-023
  3. By: Matthew Collins; Eleonora Guarnieri; Helmut Rainer
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal impact of free primary education (FPE) on fertility decisions among parents in sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on the interplay between the policy, intra-household bargaining, and cultural norms. Using Demographic and Health Survey data and exploiting the staggered rollout of FPE across 17 countries, we find that FPE reduces fertility by 0.1 children per woman and improves child survival and school enrollment. Linking these data with ethnic-level cultural norms of male dominance, we find that these effects are concentrated among ethnic groups with low male dominance, while high male-dominance groups experience minimal or opposing effects. We further show that FPE strengthens women’s bargaining power in low male-dominance settings, as evidenced by increased contraceptive use, greater influence over reproductive decisions, and higher participation in household decision-making. These changes are accompanied by higher labor force participation, increased media engagement, a higher probability of divorce, and reduced tolerance for intimate partner violence. Such shifts are largely absent in high-male dominance cultures. These findings are consistent with a simple theoretical framework that integrates the canonical quantity–quality trade-off into a household bargaining model with limited commitment, where cultural norms are captured by the extent of women’s veto power over fertility decisions. Our results highlight the critical role of cultural norms in shaping the effects of policy interventions on fertility behavior and broader development outcomes.
    Keywords: fertility, gender norms, free primary education
    JEL: J13 I25 N37
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11994

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