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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Enriqueta Camps |
| Abstract: | In this paper we account for the early demographic transition of Catalonia and impact on population ageing and productivity levels. Female vocational training and female real wage increase during the first third of the 20th century, high female participation levels in the workforce and the influence of libertarian practices of fertility control seem to be the main reasons of low fertility levels (below replacement) during the first third of the 20th century. The sustained low fertility trend has resulted in a high dependency ratio during the first decades of the 21st century caused in turn by longevity The high proportion of dependents on population has as a result the small adequacy of GDP per capita to measure the evolution of productivity levels during the 21st century. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, fertility, Gender Gap, Longevity |
| JEL: | A11 A12 I15 J11 N3 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1498 |
| By: | Dehos, Fabian T. (RWI); Paul, Marie Elina (University of Duisburg-Essen); Schäfer, Wiebke (Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology (BIPS)); Süß, Karolin (University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of two major family policies on maternal health, using rich claims data from the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database (GePaRD). We report a significant short-term impact of childcare on diagnosed respiratory diseases and heterogeneous effects on mental health. Childcare tends to reduce diagnoses of mental disorders and the use of psychotherapy among mothers with a history of mental disorders before childbirth, those with a strong attachment to the labor market and those who live in counties with low childcare provision. Conversely, low-educated mothers exhibit short-term increases in mental disorders and antidepressant use. Parental benefits alter the timing of respiratory diseases and slightly reduce mental disorders and their treatments in the first year after childbirth. |
| Keywords: | family policies, maternal health, claims data |
| JEL: | I12 I18 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17998 |
| By: | Marco Cozzani (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Peter Fallesen (ROCKWOOL Foundation, Denmark and Stockholm University, Sweden); Juho Härkönen (Department of Social and Political Science, European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | The presence of temporalities in conceptions, births, and birth outcomes such as preterm birth are well-known. However, the link between these phenomena has received surprisingly little attention. Drawing on birth certificates data from the United States (2010-2019), we demonstrate how temporal changes in conceptions are linked with birth outcomes. First, we formalize the relationship between temporal variation in conceptions and birth outcomes and model how changes in conception rates affect birth outcomes. Second, we demonstrate the temporal relationship between changes in conception rates and birth outcomes. Third, we illustrate the impact of temporal variation in conceptions on the variation in birth outcomes across different U.S. population groups. Our results show a link between the number of conceptions and the distribution of preterm births, such that a decline in conceptions will lead to a decrease in preterm births eight months after, whereas an increase will lead to the opposite pattern. This link is stronger among groups with higher incidences of preterm birth, such as Black Americans relative to non-Hispanic White Americans. Temporal variation in conceptions accounts for about one-tenth of the temporal variation in birth outcomes, and this proportion increases among groups with higher incidence rates of preterm birth. This study offers new insights into the demographic determinants of health at birth at the population level. |
| Keywords: | preterm birth, conception rates, fertility, temporality, seasonality |
| JEL: | A10 I12 I10 I14 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2025_08 |
| By: | Gaddy, Hampton; Gargiulo, Maria |
| Abstract: | BACKGROUND In the absence of high-quality data, the death tolls of epidemics, conflicts, and disasters are often estimated using ad hoc methods. One understudied class of methods, which we term the growth rate discontinuity method (GRDM), estimates death tolls by projecting pre-crisis and post-crisis total population estimates using crude growth rates and then subtracting the results. Despite, or perhaps due to, its simplicity, this method is the source of prominent death toll estimates for the Black Death, the 1918 influenza pandemic, the Great Chinese Famine, and the Rwandan genocide, among others. OBJECTIVE In this article, we review the influence and validity of GRDM and its applications. METHODS Using statistical simulation and comparison with better-validated demographic methods, we assess the accuracy, precision, and biases of this method for estimating mortality in absolute and relative terms. RESULTS We find that existing GRDM estimates often misestimate death tolls by large, unpredictable margins. Simulations suggest this is because GRDM requires precision in its inputs to an extent rarely possible in the contexts of interest. CONCLUSIONS If there is sufficient data to specify GRDM well, it is probably possible to also use a more reliable method; if there is not sufficient data, GRDM estimates are so sensitive to their assumptions that they cannot be considered informative. |
| JEL: | J11 |
| Date: | 2025–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128030 |
| By: | Costanza Naguib |
| Abstract: | In 2011, the American Economic Association (AEA) changed its peer review policy for all their journals, shifting from a double-blind process to a single-blind peer-review process. Under this new system, referees became aware of the authors’ identities. In this paper, I explore whether this policy change influenced the prevalence of p-hacking in published papers at The American Economic Review. |
| Keywords: | p-hacking, single-blind review, double-blind review, difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | A11 A14 C13 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2504 |