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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Martin Kolk (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Estimating kinship networks is a data-intensive undertaking, typically conducted using empirical sources or demographic models. While empirical data, like population registers, provide a realistic picture, they are limited by scarcity, truncation, and survivorship bias. Demographic models, including microsimulation, require less detailed data but often minimally address population heterogeneity, family similarity, and multipartner fertility. This study assesses the validity of kinship networks derived from SOCSIM microsimulation by comparing kin counts (from grandparents to grandchildren) for Swedish cohorts born between 1915 and 2017 with register-based counts. The results show that microsimulation closely approximates mean kin numbers and reasonably reflects parity distributions. While it underestimates kin for recent cohorts unaffected by truncation, it more accurately captures kin for older cohorts missing parent–child links. These findings validate the use of microsimulation as a valuable tool for reconstructing kinship when only aggregate data are available, supporting its application in historical and projected kinship analyses. |
| Keywords: | Sweden, kinship, microsimulation, population registers |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-020 |
| By: | Vincent Vandenberghe (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | The primary policy response to population ageing in advanced economies has been to raise the mandatory retirement age. However, these policies have reignited calls for differentiated retirement ages that take into account variations in work intensity. This paper utilises microdata to examine the relevance and feasibility of this concept in Europe. It first quantifies career arduousness using SHARE wave 7 retrospective ISCO4-digit data on careers in combination with US O*NET working conditions data. Then, using SHARE follow-up data collecting (bad)health and death information about wave 7 respondents, it estimates (healthy) life expectancy by career arduousness decile, combining econometrics and life table methods. Findings reveal a life expectancy gap between the least and most arduous careers of 4 to 4.2 years. Healthy life expectancy differences are slightly larger, ranging from 6.9 to 9.1 years. Also, women’s healthy life expectancy seems to be somewhat more impacted by arduousness. |
| Keywords: | Ageing, Career arduousness, (Healthy) life expectancy, Retirement Policy |
| JEL: | J14 I1 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2025009 |
| By: | Sevrin Waights |
| Abstract: | I use the universe of tax returns in Germany and a regression kink design to estimate the impacts of mothers' parental leave benefit amounts on couple earnings inequality. I make use of a benefits cap to estimate the causal impacts for high-earning women; a group for which earnings inequality is particularly large. A lower mothers' benefit amount results in a reduced gender gap in earnings that persists beyond the benefit period for at least nine years after the birth. The longer-term impacts are driven by couples where the mother earned more than her partner pre-birth. Simulations suggest that a 10% reduction in the benefit amount could reduce long-run child penalties in sample couples from 63 to 43%. |
| Keywords: | Child penalties, gender inequality in earnings, high-earning women, social norms, parental leave policy, regression kink design |
| JEL: | D63 H31 J13 J16 K31 M52 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0067 |
| By: | Michaela Kreyenfeld; Sarah Schmauk; Katharina Wrohlich; Daniel Brüggmann |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gendered impact of divorce on earnings and the role of the social policy context in shaping this relationship. In particular, it focuses on a policy reform enacted in Germany in 2008 that overturned previous ex-spousal support rules. Data come from the administrative records of the German Public Pension Fund. Drawing on a fixed- effects model, we study the behaviour of women and men who separated between 2004 and 2011 (n=21, 617 divorces). We find that women's earnings increased throughout the divorce process. This effect was slightly more pronounced after the reform than before. In contrast to women's earnings, men's earnings declined throughout the divorce process. The reform seems to have somewhat mitigated this negative divorce effect. The paper also shows heterogeneous effects across regions. While divorce had strong effects on women's and men's earnings in West Germany, it did not change the earning patterns of East German men and women either before or after the reform. The paper concludes by discussing avenues for post- separation policies from a gender perspective. |
| Keywords: | Divorce, earnings, employment, gender, policy reform |
| JEL: | J12 J22 K36 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2125 |
| By: | Grönqvist, Erik (Department of Medical Sciences, Health Economics, Centre for Health Economic Research (HEFUU) and Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS), Uppsala University.); Okuyama, Yoko (Department of Economics, UCLS, and Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies (UCFS), Uppsala University); Hensvik, Lena (Department of Economics and UCLS, Uppsala University); Thoresson, Anna (Reykjavik University, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU) and UCLS, Uppsala University.) |
| Abstract: | We study how changes in couples’ relative wages affect the division of childcare. Using a nationwide wage reform that raised pay in the female-dominated teaching profession, we find that closing 25% of the earnings gap between female teachers and their male spouses led to a 12% reduction in the childcare time gap. This result holds when we extend the analysis to major pay raises for women at the population level. Data support the mechanism that women reduce their childcare time when the spouse can step in by working more from home. Policies that address female pay can foster household equality if men have access to flexible work arrangements. |
| Keywords: | Household behavior; Childcare responsibility; Gender gaps; Working from home |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_011 |
| By: | Dwayne Benjamin; Boriana Miloucheva; Natalia Vigezzi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the opportunity cost of pursuing a PhD by tracing the earnings trajectories of graduate students from undergraduate study through doctoral training and into the labour market. Using linked Canadian administrative and census data, we compare PhD graduates to those who complete a master’s degree, to professional degree holders, and to individuals who enter but do not complete a PhD. We find that PhD graduates earn significantly less than their peers early in their careers due to delayed labour market entry. Over time, their earnings recover and eventually surpass those of master’s graduates - but primarily among those who obtain academic positions and remain employed later in life. This "double premium" reflects both higher earnings conditional on full-time academic employment and longer labour force attachment. By contrast, the most substantial penalties accrue to non-completers who withdraw late from PhD programs. Finally, we document worsening outcomes for recent PhD graduates, driven largely by declining rates of academic employment. These findings highlight the central role of career timing, labour force attachment, and access to academic positions in shaping the economic returns to doctoral education. |
| Keywords: | PhD education; Returns to education; Human capital; Labour market outcomes; Lifecycle earnings; Administrative data |
| JEL: | I26 J24 I23 |
| Date: | 2025–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-802 |