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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Martinenghi, Fabio I. (University of Newcastle, Australia); Naghsh Nejad, Maryam (University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | We use whole-population linked administrative data from Australia to ex- amine the economic and mental health impacts of IVF treatment and invol- untary childlessness. Leveraging detailed information on fertility treatment, income, and prescription drug use, we implement a dynamic triple-difference framework comparing women who remain childless five years after initiating IVF to those who successfully conceive. Results reveal large and persistent effects on both mental health and income. We further show that the IVF process itself leads to income declines among childless women, underscoring substantial unmeasured costs and suggesting downward bias in child penalty estimates that use unsuccessful IVF patients as controls. |
| Keywords: | involuntary childlessness, IVF, mental health, labor market outcomes, fertility and career trade-offs |
| JEL: | J13 J22 I14 I31 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17965 |
| By: | Michael Geruso; Dean Spears |
| Abstract: | Birth rates are falling worldwide, in every region. Falling birth rates can be decomposed into two components: (1) an increase in childlessness (i.e., lifetime nulliparity), and (2) fewer children ever born to women who have at least one child (completed cohort fertility among the parous). This paper quantifies the contributions of these two components for women in advanced economies in Europe, North and South America, and southeast Asia, and for recent cohorts in Indian districts. In both samples, we find that the birth rate among parous women is an important component in explaining low overall birth rates. Childlessness explains only 38% of the decline in cohort fertility in the advanced economies in our analysis. In the Indian context, childlessness accounts for only 6% of the difference between high-fertility and below-replacement districts. Moreover, in many country-cohorts and Indian districts, average completed cohort fertility would be below the replacement threshold even when considering only women who do have children—that is, omitting the zeros from the average. This is in tension with widespread recent narratives that attribute falling birth rates to increasing childlessness: To the contrary, in many populations average birth rates even among parents would be low enough eventually to cause depopulation. |
| JEL: | I1 J10 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33913 |
| By: | Dhaval M. Dave; Christine Durrance; Bilge Erten; Yang Wang; Barbara L. Wolfe |
| Abstract: | In overturning Roe v. Wade and triggering laws in many states that ban or severely restrict abortions, the Supreme Court’s landmark 2022 Dobbs decision dramatically altered the landscape for reproductive health in the U.S. Prior research has highlighted the far-reaching impact of abortion restrictions for women and families, which extend beyond their proximate effects on abortions, births, and fertility. We provide some of the first causal evidence on how abortion restrictions in the post-Dobbs era have impacted women’s risk of exposure to intimate partner violence (IPV). IPV is the most common form of violence experienced by women, and changes in access to abortion may generate unintended effects on various inputs (economic resources, stress, intra-household bargaining) that could affect relationship dynamics and raise the risk of IPV. Leveraging information on IPV incidents reported to law enforcement from 2017-2023 combined with post-Dobbs changes in county-level travel distance to abortion facilities, analyses are based on a generalized difference-in-differences approach. We find that abortion restrictions – alternately measured by the increase in travel distance and by the presence of a near-total ban – significantly increased the rate of IPV for reproductive-aged women in treated counties on the order of about seven to 10 percent. These estimates imply at least 9, 000 additional incidents of IPV among women in the treated “trigger ban” states, which would be predicted to add over $1.24 billion in social costs. |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I18 J13 K23 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33916 |
| By: | Vincent, Sarah (Boston University); Herrera-Almanza, Catalina (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Anukriti, S (World Bank); Karra, Mahesh (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an indicator of contraceptive concordance that identifies the alignment between stated preferences for contraception and concurrent contraceptive behavior. The proposed indicator departs from traditional approaches to measurement in family planning that infer concordance from the alignment between women's contraceptive (non-)use and their fertility preferences. The indicator is estimated using data from a cross-sectional survey that was conducted with 1, 958 married women in rural India. More than half of all women in the sample (51.2 percent) report that they are currently using a contraceptive method. More than 3 in 5 women (60.8 percent) were classified as wanting to use a contraceptive method at the time of the survey. While 60 percent of sample women are classified to be concordant (either wanted users or wanted non-users), almost 1 in 4 women (24.8 percent) state a preference for using contraception but are not users (unwanted non-users), and 15.2 percent of women state a preference for not using contraception but are users (unwanted users). The paper discusses the comparative advantages and limitations of this approach relative to traditional measures and other recently developed indicators. |
| Keywords: | family planning, concordance, contraception, India, measurement |
| JEL: | J13 I15 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17954 |
| By: | Emma Diduch (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Complete birth histories which allow analysis of mother’s age at birth and birth intervals by parity are rare in historical data. Partial birth histories can be obtained from retrospective fertility surveys and census data which record the numbers of children ever born, children deceased, and the ages of surviving coresident children. Luther and Cho (1988) proposed a method for reconstructing complete birth histories by imputing ages for deceased and non-coresident children, and Hacker (2020) extended this method to historical census data with adjusted, group-specific inputs. This paper adapts the reconstruction method to a sample of the 1911 census of England and Wales and describes the contribution of record linking between censuses from 1881 onwards to reduce the number of missing observations in the partial birth histories. Record linking particularly addresses concerns about uncertainty in estimating age-specific fertility for women whose children were born more than fifteen years before the survey date. |
| JEL: | J13 N33 |
| Date: | 2025–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmh:wpaper:46 |
| By: | Yuting BAI; Jun Hyung KIM; Anqi LI; Shiko MARUYAMA; Zhe YANG |
| Abstract: | Homeownership and childbearing decisions are closely linked for many couples. As buying a home often requires substantial loan amounts, consumer credit conditions may influence fertility. We examine how down payment rate (DPR) policies affect marriage and fertility, exploiting city-by-year variation in DPRs across China from 2008 to 2020. The results show that, while housing prices show no direct effect, higher DPRs significantly reduce the likelihood of first births, particularly among those who are likely to be credit-constrained. We find no effect on first marriage. These findings highlight how housing market policies can shape demographic behavior, especially in the context of high housing prices. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25056 |