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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Attanasio, Orazio (Yale University); Conti, Gabriella (University College London); Jervis, Pamela (Universidad de Chile); Meghir, Costas (Yale University); Okbay, Aysu (Amsterdam University of Applied Science) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate impacts heterogeneity of an Early Childhood Intervention in Colombia, with respect to the Educational Attainment Polygenic Score (EA4 PGS) constructed from DNA data based on GWAS weights from a European population. We find that the EA4 PGS is predictive of several measures of child development, mother’s IQ and, to some extent, educational attainment. We also show that the impacts of the intervention are significantly greater in children with low PGS, to the point that the intervention eliminates the initial genetic disadvantage. Lastly, we find that children with high PGS attract more parental stimulation; however, the latter increases more strongly in children with low PGS. |
| Keywords: | stimulation programs, early childhood development, GxE interactions |
| JEL: | C21 J13 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17897 |
| By: | Zvi Eckstein; Michael P. Keane; Osnat Lifshitz |
| Abstract: | In the 1960 cohort, American men and women graduated from college at similar rates, and this was true for Whites, Blacks and Hispanics. But in more recent cohorts, women graduate at much higher rates than men. Gaps between race/ethnic groups have also widened. To understand these patterns, we develop a model of individual and family decision-making where education, labor supply, marriage and fertility are all endogenous. Assuming stable preferences, our model explains changes in education for the ‘60-‘80 cohorts based on three exogenous factors: family background, labor market and marriage market constraints. We find changes in parental background account for 1/4 of the growth in women’s college graduation from the ’60 to ’80 cohort. The marriage market accounts for 1/5 and the labor market explains the rest. Thus, parent education plays an important role in generating social mobility, enabling us to predict future evolution of college graduation rates due to this factor. We predict White women’s graduation rate will plateau, while that of Hispanic and Black women will grow rapidly. But the aggregate graduation rate will grow very slowly due to the increasing Hispanic share of the population. |
| JEL: | D15 J11 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33869 |
| By: | Andrew C. Johnston; Maggie R. Jones; Nolan G. Pope |
| Abstract: | Nearly a third of American children experience parental divorce before adulthood. To understand its consequences, we use linked tax and Census records for over 5 million children to examine how divorce affects family arrangements and children's long-term outcomes. Following divorce, parents move apart, household income falls, parents work longer hours, families move more frequently, and households relocate to poorer neighborhoods with less economic opportunity. This bundle of changes in family circumstances suggests multiple channels through which divorce may affect children's development and outcomes. In the years following divorce, we observe sharp increases in teen births and child mortality. To examine long-run effects on children, we compare siblings with different lengths of exposure to the same divorce. We find that parental divorce reduces children's adult earnings and college residence while increasing incarceration, mortality, and teen births. Changes in household income, neighborhood quality, and parent proximity account for 25 to 60 percent of these divorce effects. |
| JEL: | D1 I31 J12 J13 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33776 |
| By: | Kabir Dasgupta; Andrew C. Johnston; Linda Kirkpatrick; Maxim N. Massenkoff; Alexander Plum |
| Abstract: | How does family breakdown and divorce affect spouses and their children? We provide new evidence using a matched difference-in-differences design in rich administrative data from New Zealand. While most outcomes remain stable prior to separation, parents' mental health deteriorates in the lead-up. At separation, men's employment falls while women's rises, and women become much more likely to receive government benefits. Men temporarily double their criminal offending; about a third of the increase is domestic disputes. Both parents become more likely to be the victim of non-domestic crime as well. As for mental health, parents become more anxious and depressed at separation, and these remain elevated well after the couple has parted. Their children, too, face increased risks after separation: anxiety, depression, school absenteeism, and crime victimization all rise. |
| JEL: | I31 J12 J13 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33873 |
| By: | Katherine Michelmore |
| Abstract: | Over the last several decades, there have been historic shifts in the structure of cash transfer programs in Western, developed countries, including the U.S., Canada, and U.K. For all three of these countries, the turn of the 21st century marked a shift away from unconditional cash transfer programs like traditional cash welfare, towards an emphasis on benefits that encourage or require work. In this paper, I review the evidence on the impact of tax credits on child outcomes, focusing on what is known about child-oriented tax credits in the U.S. (EITC, CTC), the U.K. (WFTC, CTC, WTC), and Canada (Canada Child Tax Benefit (CCTB), National Child Benefit (NCB), and the Canada Child Benefit (CCB). Overwhelmingly, the evidence from these three countries suggests that tax credits have positive impacts on children on a host of different outcomes, including infant birthweight, childhood health and achievement, educational attainment, wages, and poverty in adulthood. While there is a large, growing body of evidence on the impact of these tax credits on children, future work should further investigate the precise mechanisms through which tax credits impact child outcomes, the characteristics of children most impacted by these credits, and the importance the frequency of credits distribution. |
| JEL: | H5 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33822 |
| By: | Cristina Belles-Obrero; Giulia La Mattina; Han Ye |
| Abstract: | The prevalence and determinants of intimate partner violence (IPV) among older women are understudied. This paper documents that the incidence of IPV remains high at old ages and provides the first evidence of the impact of access to income on IPV for older women. We leverage a Mexican reform that lowered the eligibility age for a non-contributory pension and a difference-in-differences approach. Women’s eligibility for the pension increases their probability of being subjected to economic, psychological, and physical/sexual IPV. In contrast, we show that IPV does not increase when men become eligible. Looking at potential mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that men use violence as a tool to control women’s resources. Additionally, women reduce paid employment after becoming eligible for the pension, which may indicate that they spend more time at home, leading to greater exposure to potentially violent partners.The prevalence and determinants of intimate partner violence (IPV) among older women are understudied. This paper documents that the incidence of IPV remains high at old ages and provides the first evidence of the impact of access to income on IPV for older women. We leverage a Mexican reform that lowered the eligibility age for a non-contributory pension and a difference-in-differences approach. Women’s eligibility for the pension increases their probability of being subjected to economic, psychological, and physical/sexual IPV. In contrast, we show that IPV does not increase when men become eligible. Looking at potential mechanisms, we find suggestive evidence that men use violence as a tool to control women’s resources. Additionally, women reduce paid employment after becoming eligible for the pension, which may indicate that they spend more time at home, leading to greater exposure to potentially violent partners. |
| Keywords: | Non-contributory pension, Intimate partner violence, Retirement, Income |
| JEL: | H55 I38 J12 J26 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_602v2 |
| By: | Vikesh Amin (Central Michigan University); Jere R. Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Jason M. Fletcher (University of Wisconsin-Madison, IZA, and NBER); Carlos A. Flores (California Polytechnic State University); Alfonso Flores-Lagunes (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, IZA, and GLO); Hans-Peter Kohler (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | We revisit much-investigated relationships between schooling and health, focusing on schooling impacts on cognitive abilities at older ages using the Harmonized Cognition Assessment Protocol in the Health & Retirement Study (HRS) and a bounding approach that requires relatively weak assumptions. Our estimated upper bounds on the population average effects indicate potentially large causal effects of increasing schooling from primary to secondary; yet, these upper bounds are smaller than many estimates from the literature on causal schooling impacts on cognition using compulsory-schooling laws. We also cannot rule out small and null effects at this margin. We do, however, find evidence for positive causal effects on cognition of increasing schooling from secondary to tertiary. We replicate findings from the HRS using older adults from the Midlife in United States Development Study Cognitive Project. We further explore possible mechanisms through which schooling may be working—such as health, SES, occupation and spousal schooling—finding suggestive evidence of effects through such mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Schooling, Cognition, Bounds, Aging, Partial-Identification |
| JEL: | I10 I26 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:25-417 |