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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Alberto Bucci (University of Milan); Klaus Prettner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Fertility rates have declined dramatically across almost all high-income countries over the past decades. This has raised concerns about future economic prospects. Indeed, fully– and semi–endogenous growth models imply that a shrinking workforce would lead to declining income growth and perhaps even stagnation. We extend the previous analyses to explicitly incorporate an endogenous quantity/quality trade-off between fertility and human capital accumulation. This allows us to assess the extent to which a declining number of workers can be compensated by increasing education. Our analysis demonstrates that economic growth needs not necessarily to decline with a falling population. Under certain conditions, human capital investment can sustain technological progress and economic growth despite the demographic challenges we are facing. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Change, Fertility Decline, Economic Growth, Research and Development, Endogenous Fertility, Endogenous Education, Human Capital Accumulation |
| JEL: | J11 J13 O33 O41 I25 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp377 |
| By: | Noghanibehambari, Hamid (University of Texas at Austin); Slusky, David (University of Kansas); Vu, Hoa (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the multigenerational impacts of legalized abortion in the United States by analyzing how early-life exposure to this policy shift affects birth outcomes in the next generation. Using event study and two-way fixed effects models, we link maternal early-life exposure to legal abortion with improved birth outcomes in the subsequent generation, including higher birth weights and reduced rates of low birth weight. Our analysis of the mechanisms shows that these improvements in birth outcomes are not driven by changes in maternal racial or age composition within the treated generation. Instead, enhanced educational attainment and increased prenatal care utilization among the treated generation appear to play a critical role. Our results highlight the far-reaching implications of reproductive health policies, especially relevant in the post-Dobbs era, where access may once again become constrained for many. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational effects, infant health, Roe v. Wade, Abortion, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization |
| JEL: | H75 I12 I18 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17760 |
| By: | Sauré, Philip; Seibold, Arthur; Smorodenkova, Elizaveta; Zoabi, Hosny |
| Abstract: | We study the role of occupations for individual and aggregate retirement behavior. First, we document large differences in individual retirement ages across occupations in U.S. data. We then show that retirement behavior among European workers is strongly correlated with U.S. occupational retirement ages, indicating an inherent association between occupations and retirement that is present across institutional settings. Finally, we find that occupational composition is an important predictor of aggregate retirement behavior across 45 countries. Our findings suggest that events affecting occupational structure, such as skill-biased technological change or international trade, can have consequences for aggregate retirement behavior and social security systems. |
| Keywords: | retirement; occupations; labor force composition |
| JEL: | E24 H55 J14 J24 J26 J82 |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127787 |
| By: | Leah Boustan; Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen; Ran Abramitzky; Elisa Jácome; Alan Manning; Santiago Pérez; Analysia Watley; Adrian Adermon; Jaime Arellano-Bover; Olof Åslund; Marie Connolly; Nathan Deutscher; Anne C. Gielen; Yvonne Giesing; Yajna Govind; Martin Halla; Dominik Hangartner; Yuyan Jiang; Cecilia Karmel; Fanny Landaud; Lindsey Macmillan; Isabel Z. Martínez; Alberto Polo; Panu Poutvaara; Hillel Rapoport; Sara Roman; Kjell G. Salvanes; Shmuel San; Michael Siegenthaler; Louis Sirugue; Javier Soria Espín; Jan Stuhler; Giovanni L. Violante; Dinand Webbink; Andrea Weber; Jonathan Zhang; Angela Zheng; Tom Zohar |
| Abstract: | We estimate intergenerational mobility of immigrants and their children in fifteen receiving countries. We document large income gaps for first-generation immigrants that diminish in the second generation. Around half of the second-generation gap can be explained by differences in parental income, with the remainder due to differential rates of absolute mobility. The daughters of immigrants enjoy higher absolute mobility than daughters of locals in most destinations, while immigrant sons primarily enjoy this advantage in countries with long histories of immigration. Cross-country differences in absolute mobility are not driven by parental country-of-origin, but instead by destination labor markets and immigration policy. |
| JEL: | J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33558 |
| By: | Brenøe, Anne Ardila (University of Zurich); Krenk, Ursa (University of Zurich); Steinhauer, Andreas (University of Edinburgh); Zweimüller, Josef (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | How do firms adjust their labor demand when a female employee takes temporary leave after childbirth? Using Austrian administrative data, we compare firms with and without a birth event and exploit policy reforms that significantly altered leave durations. We find that (i) firms adjust hiring, employment, and wages around leave periods, but these effects fade quickly; (ii) adjustments differ sharply by gender, reflecting strong gender segregation within firms; (iii) longer leave entitlements extend actual leave absences but have only short-term effects; and (iv) there is no impact on firm closure up to five years after birth. |
| Keywords: | absence duration, gender, labor demand, labor supply, firms, family leave |
| JEL: | H2 H5 J2 J08 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17845 |
| By: | Abrahamsson, Sara (Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH)); Barschkett, Mara (University of Bonn); Flatø, Martin (Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH)) |
| Abstract: | Menopause marks a crucial juncture in women's lives and careers. We provide novel evidence on the effects of menopause onset on labor and health outcomes. Combining Norwegian register with survey data from the HUNT study on self-reported menopause age, we apply a stacked difference-in-differences design. Our findings show declines in earnings, increased sick leave, and more diagnoses related to menopause. Additionally, women without symptoms, and those with mild symptoms who seek care, do not experience earnings losses. Moreover, timely healthcare-seeking and treatment onset can mitigate earnings losses. This suggests that policies promoting menopause awareness could alleviate individual and societal burdens. |
| Keywords: | administrative health data, women's health, menopause, labor market outcomes, HUNT |
| JEL: | I10 I12 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17789 |