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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Lisa J. Dettling; Melissa Schettini Kearney |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes that the adoption of the modern U.S. mortgage (i.e., low down payment, long-term, and fixed-rate)—led by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Veteran’s Administration (VA) loan insurance programs—set the stage for the mid-twentieth century U.S. baby boom by dramatically raising rates of home ownership for young families. Using newly digitized data on FHA- and VA- backed loan issuance and births by state-year, and a novel instrumental variables strategy that isolates supply-side variation in loan issuance, we find that the FHA and VA mortgage insurance programs led to 3 million additional births from 1935-1957, roughly 10 percent of the excess births in the baby boom. Aggregate effects mask differences by group—we find no effects of FHA/VA lending on births for Nonwhite women, consistent with well-documented racial discrimination in these lending programs. Our results highlight the importance of access to home ownership for fertility decisions. |
| JEL: | G21 H31 J13 N32 R38 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33446 |
| By: | Dominique Meurs; Pierre Pora |
| Abstract: | This study uses French survey data on immigrants to explore whether the child penalty is driven by traditional gender attitudes. The dataset includes individual perceptions of gender inequality and women's bodily autonomy, alongside fertility histories and labor market trajectories for immigrants living in France during 2019–2020. While women holding more traditional views are less likely to participate in the labor force overall, the child penalty does not appear to be larger for this group. Interestingly, the child penalty accounts for a significantly greater share of the gender gap in labor force participation among those with more egalitarian views. Comparative analyses across immigrants’ upbringing environments and countries of origin further support a causal interpretation of the absence of a relationship between traditional gender attitudes and the child penalty. |
| Keywords: | Gender, Child penalty, Immigrants, Attitudes, Values |
| JEL: | J15 J16 J24 D63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-10 |
| By: | Donald, Aletheia Amalia; Goldstein, Markus P.; Koroknay-Palicz, Tricia; Sage, Mathilde |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how women’s fertility responds to increases in their earnings and household wealth, using six experiments conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa. Contrary to predictions that an increase in female earnings raises the opportunity cost of childbearing and that this will lower fertility, the findings show that an increase in the profits of female business-owners in Ethiopia and Togo results in them having more children. The findings also show a positive fertility response to increases in the value of household assets induced by land formalization programs in Benin and Ghana. These results are driven by women w ho are in most need of sons for support in old age or in the event of widowhood. The findings suggest that women’s lack of long-term economic security is an important driver of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Date: | 2024–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10848 |
| By: | Breen, Casey |
| Abstract: | The Black-White mortality crossover is well-studied demographic paradox. Black Americans experience higher age-specific mortality rates than White Americans throughout most of the life course, but this puzzlingly reverses at advanced ages. The leading explanation for the Black-White mortality crossover centers around selective mortality over the life course. Black Americans who survived higher age-specific mortality risk throughout their life course are highly selected on robustness, and have lower mortality than White Americans in late life. However, skeptics argue the Black-White mortality crossover is simply a data artifact from age misreporting or related data quality issues. We use large-scale linked administrative data (N = 2.3 million) to document the BlackWhite mortality crossover for cohorts born in the early 20 th century. We find evidence the crossover is not a data artifact and cannot be uncrossed using sociodemographic characteristics alone. |
| Date: | 2024–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ax9u3_v1 |
| By: | Hauer, Mathew; Brewster, Karin; Brooks, Matthew M (McGill University) |
| Abstract: | Historical estimates of the total fertility rate (TFR) are relatively uncommon, owing to the onerous data requirements for direct calculation and the lack of digitized records. Recent advancements in indirect fertility estimation 1 allow for estimation of TFR using data as minimal as a population pyramid – relatively common data in historical contexts through census records and population registers. Here we use published data on the age structure of Roman Egypt circa AD 12 to AD 259 2 to estimate TFR and 90%ile credible interval in an ancient time period and place using a Bayesian approach. Furthermore, the population data is separated by urban and rural areas, allowing for an unprecedented glimpse into ancient fertility levels. We find that ancient Roman Egyptian women in urban areas had considerably lower fertility than women in rural areas -- urban TFR: 3.37 [2.26 – 4.55], and rural TFR: 8.57 [6.01 – 11.25]. Our findings suggest that the modern day urban/rural fertility differential dates back nearly 2000 years. As demonstrated here, the advancements in indirect estimation could be deployed to better understand historical and ancient fertility regimes, shedding light on societies far before the existence of modern vital statistics systems. |
| Date: | 2024–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ru8xd_v1 |