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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Berger, Thor (Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study (SCAS),); Karadja, Mounir (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Prawitz, Erik (Department of Economics and Statistics, Linnaeus University) |
| Abstract: | We document that large cities were instrumental in shaping women’s work and family outcomes in the early 20th century. We focus on migrants to Stockholm, Sweden’s largest city, using representative, linked census data. Female migrants to Stockholm saw persistent changes in work and family outcomes over the life-cycle. Migrants were approximately 50 percentage points more likely to enter the labor force and less likely to marry or have children than their sisters migrating to rural areas. They experienced skill-upgrading and higher real incomes, without adverse mortality effects. Early structural shifts towards services partly explain these patterns. |
| Keywords: | Female labor force participation; Migration; Urbanization; Economic history |
| JEL: | I15 N93 Q25 |
| Date: | 2025–01–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1516 |
| By: | Lawrence Blume; Neil A. Cholli; Steven N. Durlauf; Aleksandra Lukina |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes some new measures of intergenerational persistence based on the idea of characterizing the memory of origin in the stochastic process that links the socioeconomic classes of parents and children. We introduce “memory curves” for all future generations given any initial condition of class for a family dynasty, which reveal how initial conditions interact with the transition process between parents and children to create mobility and persistence. We also propose ways to aggregate information across different classes to produce overall characterizations of mobility in the population. To illustrate our measures, we estimate occupational “memory curves” using U.S. survey data. Our findings show that, on average, the memory of initial conditions dissipates largely within three generations, though there is meaningful heterogeneity in mobility rates across dynasties originating from different occupational classes. |
| JEL: | C10 C50 D30 J6 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33166 |
| By: | Valentin Flietner (PwC and Tinbergen Institute); Bernd Heidergott (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Frank den Hollander (Leiden University); Ines Lindner (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute); Azadeh Parvaneh (Leiden University); Holger Strulik (University of Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health indicators, the modeling of network evolution with Poisson processes is universal and can be derived from fundamental principles. Second, with the help of two simplifying approximations, which we refer to as mean-field assumption and homogeneity assumption, we provide an analytical derivation of Gompertz law under generic and biologically relevant conditions. We identify the parameters in Gompertz law as a function of the parameters driving the evolution of the network, and illustrate our computations with simulations and analytic approximations. |
| JEL: | I10 J10 |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240079 |
| By: | Jonathan D. Ketcham; Nicolai V. Kuminoff; Nirman Saha |
| Abstract: | We develop a new revealed preference framework to estimate the value of statistical life (VSL). Our framework starts from a hedonic model of health care in which heterogenous individuals choose how much to spend on medical services that reduce mortality risk. Their choices generate an equilibrium survival function that can be differentiated to recover their marginal willingness to pay for mortality risk reduction. Our IV estimator uses survey data on Americans over age 66, linked to their federal administrative records. The mean VSL is approximately $1 million at age 67 and increasing in health, income, education, and life expectancy. |
| JEL: | Q51 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33165 |
| By: | Mirjam Bachli (HEC University of Lausanne); Albrecht Glitz (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | Immigration may affect income inequality not only by changing factor prices but also by inducing policy makers to adjust the prevailing income tax system. We assess the relative importance of these economic and political channels using administrative data from Switzerland where local authorities have a high degree of tax autonomy. We show that immigrant inflows not only raise gross earnings inequality but also reduce the progressivity of local income taxes, further increasing after-tax inequality. Our estimates suggest that 10 percent of the impact of immigration on the net interquartile and interdecile earnings gaps can be attributed to the political channel. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Income Taxes, Earnings Inequality |
| JEL: | H23 H24 H71 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2435 |
| By: | Andrea Caria |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal impact of Italy’s transition from analog to digital terrestrial television on fertility rates, exploiting the staggered rollout between 2008 and 2012 as a natural experiment. Employing a difference-in-differences analysis and a doubly robust estimator, I find a statistically significant negative effect of digital terrestrial television adoption on fertility, particularly pronounced in urban, progressive areas characterized by low pre-treatment fertility, fewer young couples with children, higher population density, and taxpayers. While a simple time substitution effect (between television viewing and reproductive activities) is unlikely to be the primary driver, evidence suggests that digital terrestrial television facilitated more individualized viewing experiences through increased household television ownership. The findings point to a significant shift in gender roles following digital terrestrial television adoption: I observe an increase in female labor force participation and a more equitable division of domestic work, with men undertaking a larger share of lighter household tasks. |
| Keywords: | reproductive decisions, digital terrestrial television, media influence, difference-in-differences analysis |
| JEL: | J13 J16 L82 C23 D83 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11591 |