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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Matthias Collischon; Kamila Cygan-Rehm; Regina T. Riphahn |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether incentives generated by public policies contribute to motherhood penalties. Specifically, we study the consequences of subsidized small jobs, the German Minijobs, which are frequently taken up by first-time mothers upon labor market return. Using a combination of propensity score matching and an event study applied to administrative data, we compare the long-run child penalties of mothers who started out in a Minijob employment versus unsubsidized employment or non-employment after birth. We find persistent differences between the Minijobbers and otherwise employed mothers up to 10 years after the first birth, which suggests adverse unintended consequences of the small jobs subsidy program for maternal earnings and pensions. |
| Keywords: | motherhood penalty, small job subsidies, Minijobs, maternal employment, labor market policy, propensity score matching |
| JEL: | J22 J13 J18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11508 |
| By: | Hauer, Mathew; Brewster, Karin; Brooks, Matthew M (McGill University) |
| Abstract: | Historical estimates of the total fertility rate (TFR) are relatively uncommon, owing to the onerous data requirements for direct calculation and the lack of digitized records. Recent advancements in indirect fertility estimation 1 allow for estimation of TFR using data as minimal as a population pyramid – relatively common data in historical contexts through census records and population registers. Here we use published data on the age structure of Roman Egypt circa AD 12 to AD 259 2 to estimate TFR and 90%ile credible interval in an ancient time period and place using a Bayesian approach. Furthermore, the population data is separated by urban and rural areas, allowing for an unprecedented glimpse into ancient fertility levels. We find that ancient Roman Egyptian women in urban areas had considerably lower fertility than women in rural areas -- urban TFR: 3.37 [2.26 – 4.55], and rural TFR: 8.57 [6.01 – 11.25]. Our findings suggest that the modern day urban/rural fertility differential dates back nearly 2000 years. As demonstrated here, the advancements in indirect estimation could be deployed to better understand historical and ancient fertility regimes, shedding light on societies far before the existence of modern vital statistics systems. |
| Date: | 2024–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ru8xd |
| By: | Donald, Aletheia (World Bank); Goldstein, Markus (World Bank); Koroknay-Palicz, Tricia (World Bank); Sage, Mathilde (Catholic University Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how women's fertility responds to increases in their earnings and household wealth using six experiments conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa. Contrary to predictions that an increase in female earnings raises the opportunity cost of childbearing and that this will lower fertility, we find that an increase in the profits of female business-owners in Ethiopia and Togo results in them having more children. We also observe a positive fertility response to increases in the value of household assets induced by land formalization programs in Benin and Ghana. These results are driven by women who are in most need of sons for support in old age or in the event of widowhood. Our findings suggest that women's lack of long-term economic security is an important driver of fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | fertility, households, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | J13 O12 D13 J12 I32 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17500 |
| By: | Henning Hermes (ifo Institute Munich); Marina Krauß (University of Augsburg); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich); Frauke Peter (German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies); Simon Wiederhold (University of Halle) |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence that enabling access to universal early child care increases maternal labor supply and promotes gender equality among families with lower socioeconomic status (SES). Our intervention offers information and customized help with child care applications, leading to a boost in child care enrollment among lower-SES families. 18 months after the intervention, we find substantial increases in maternal full-time employment (+160%), maternal earnings (+22%), and household income (+10%). Intriguingly, the positive employment effects are not only driven by extended hours at child care centers, but also by an increase in care hours by fathers. Gender equality also benefits more broadly from better access to child care: The treatment improves a gender equality index that combines information on intra-household division of working hours, care hours, and earnings by 40% of a standard deviation, with significant increases in each dimension. For higher-SES families, we consistently observe negligible, insignificant treatment effects. |
| Keywords: | maternal employment |
| JEL: | J13 J18 J22 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2024-023 |
| By: | Pashchenko, Svetlana; Jang, Youngsoo; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje |
| Abstract: | Should public policies address inequality due to heterogeneous life expectancy? Intuitively, taking short life as a disadvantage, such policies should favor those with high mortality. Yet, pension systems implicitly redistribute from low-life-expectancy to high-life-expectancy people. Moreover, this direction of redistribution is optimal from the perspective of the standard utilitarian welfare criterion. We study mortality-related redistribution in a more flexible setting. We start by establishing a formal framework for the analysis by clearly distinguishing between the redistribution along mortality and income dimensions, and thus between mortality and income progressivity. We then show that it is optimal to redistribute towards high-mortality people in two cases. First, when welfare criterion features aversion to lifetime inequality which exceeds aversion to consumption inequality. Second, when income and mortality are negatively correlated, and income redistribution tools are limited. |
| Keywords: | Mortality-related redistribution, Welfare criteria, Pensions, Prioritarianism |
| JEL: | D30 D60 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122662 |
| By: | Andreas Kyriacaou (Departament d’Economia, Universitat de Girona (Spain)); Ronald Miranda-Lescano (Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos and Departamento de Economía, Universidad de la República (Uruguay), and EMANES fellow); Leonel Muinelo-Gallo (Departamento de Economía and Instituto de Economía, Universidad de la República (Uruguay)); Oriol Roca-Sagales (Departament d’Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (Spain)) |
| Abstract: | This article constructs new indicators of subnational disparities in life expectancy for up to 101 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2021, offering critical insights into health inequalities within countries. The findings reveal that subnational disparities in life expectancy are markedly higher in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to other LMIC world regions throughout the period. Moreover, while subnational disparities in life expectancy have decreased in most regions, Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as an exception, with persistently high disparities alongside rising average life expectancy. A country-level analysis indicates that subnational disparities in life expectancy declined in 61 countries, increased in 30, and remained unchanged in 10. A gender-specific analysis highlights that, while women generally live longer than men across all countries studied, subnational life expectancy disparities are greater for women. Sub-Saharan Africa exhibits the largest disparities in female life expectancy and the widest gap in disparities between men and women. |
| Keywords: | subnational disparities, life expectancy, inequality measurement, inequality determinants |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2501 |
| By: | Zulli María Agostina |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of preschool enrollment on maternal labour market outcomes in Brazil, focusing on the effect of sending the youngest child to preschool and how this varies with the presence of other female family members. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to exploit changes in preschool-entry age regulations, I find that enrolling the youngest child in preschool increases the probability of employment or job search by 33% and weekly hours worked by 15 hours, increasing the likelihood of holding a full-time job by 30 percentage points. These effects are not observed for mothers enrolling their non-youngest children. Notably, the employment effects are more pronounced for mothers without other female relatives in the household, highlighting the role of informal childcare in alleviating maternal childcare responsibilities. |
| JEL: | J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4773 |
| By: | Buyi Wang; Meredith Slopen; Irwin Garfinkel; Elizabeth Ananat; Sophie M. Collyer; Robert Paul Hartley; Anastasia Koutavas; Christopher Wimer |
| Abstract: | National paid family leave programs have been repeatedly proposed in the United States in recent years. To inform policy discussions, we provide a benefit-cost analysis of introducing such a program. We systematically identify high-quality, quasi-experimental studies on the impact of paid leave on infants and parents. Using the most conservative estimates or the mean estimates from this literature, we estimate that every $1, 000 investment in paid parental leave would generate, respectively, $7, 275 or $29, 406 in present discounted net social benefits. We use these estimates to conduct a microsimulation of benefits and costs of two policy proposals with different eligibility and wage replacement rates. The first, a 4-week program, would have an initial fiscal cost of under $2 billion and net social benefits of $13 (conservative) or $55 billion (mean). The corresponding figures for the 12-week program are about 3.7 times larger, suggesting that either version would likely generate high returns. |
| JEL: | I18 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33279 |
| By: | Carbuccia, Laudine (Sciences Po & Ecole Normale Supérieure); Heim, Arthur; Barone, Carlo; Chevallier, Coralie |
| Abstract: | Access to high-quality early childcare for low socioeconomic status (SES) households has the potential to mitigate socioeconomic inequalities. Yet, there is an SES-based gap in early childcare enrolment. While low-SES households would benefit the most from attending early childcare, they access early childcare the least. This study tackles cognitive and behavioural barriers behind this access gap. We test the effectiveness of informational interventions and personalised support to enhance early childcare application and access for low-SES households through a multi-arm experiment. Results reveal that the information-only treatment had minimal impact while adding personalised support significantly bridged the SES-gap in early childcare applications. However, despite large impacts on application rates, we found limited impacts on access rates for low-SES households. By identifying key obstacles to early childcare access for low-SES households, our research underscores the need for effective strategies to promote equal opportunities in early childhood education. |
| Date: | 2024–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:w2ey7 |
| By: | De Quinto, Alicia (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); González, Libertad (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | Countries often encourage part-time work among new parents as part of their family policies, aiming to foster mothers' labor market attachment. However, this approach may unintentionally impede women's long-term career prospects. We examine the impact of a 1999 Spanish reform that allowed parents to reduce their working hours by up to a half while their youngest child was under age 6, along with job protection measures. Leveraging eligibility rules, we follow a regression kink design, comparing ineligible women to mothers who had varying lengths of eligibility, and tracking their subsequent work trajectories. Our findings show that longer eligibility led to a modest increase in maternal part-time work during her child's early years, with mothers working approximately one additional day part-time for each extra month of eligibility. This increase in part-time work substituted for days spent in unemployment rather than reducing full-time work, leading to a rise in earnings. In the long term, extended eligibility also led to improvements in both employment and earnings. Overall, we find that the policy had a positive impact on the labor supply and earnings of women with children, both in the short and long term. |
| Keywords: | worktime reduction, maternity, childcare policies |
| JEL: | J08 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17509 |
| By: | Daniel L. Dench; Kelly Lifchez; Jason M. Lindo; Jancy Ling Liu |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate whether reproductive rights affect migration. We do so using a synthetic difference-in-differences design that leverages variation from the 2022 Dobbs decision, which allowed states to ban abortion, and population flows based on change-of-address data from the United States Postal Service. The results indicate that abortion bans cause significant increases in net migration outflows, with effect sizes growing throughout the year after the decision. The most recent data point indicates that total abortion bans come at the cost of more than 36, 000 residents per quarter. The effects are more prominent for single-person households than for family households, which may reflect larger effects on younger adults. We also find suggestive evidence of impacts for states that were hostile towards abortion in ways other than having total bans. |
| JEL: | H0 I0 J0 K0 R0 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33328 |
| By: | George J. Borjas; Nate Breznau |
| Abstract: | When studying policy-relevant topics, researchers’ policy preferences may shape the design, execution, analysis, and interpretation of results. Detection of such bias is challenging because the research process itself is not normally part of a controlled experimental setting. Our analysis exploits a rare opportunity where 158 researchers working independently in 71 research teams participated in an experiment. After being surveyed about their position on immigration policy, they used the same data to answer the same well-defined empirical question: Does immigration affect the level of public support for social welfare programs? The researchers estimated 1, 253 alternative regression models, producing a frequency distribution of the measured impact ranging from strongly negative to strongly positive. We find that research teams composed of pro-immigration researchers estimated more positive impacts of immigration on public support for social programs, while anti-immigration research teams reported more negative estimates. Moreover, the methods used by teams with strong pro- or anti- immigration priors received lower “referee scores” from their peers in the experiment. These lower-rated models helped produce the different effects estimated by the teams at the tails of the immigration sentiment distribution. The underlying research design decisions are the mechanism through which ideology enters the production function for parameter estimates. |
| JEL: | C90 I38 J69 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33274 |