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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | de Vries, Sander (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Ketel, Nadine (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Lindeboom, Maarten (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | There is a clear consensus that childhood experiences shape adult success, yet there is limited understanding of their impact on future generations. We proxy parental investments during childhood with birth order and study whether disadvantages due to lower investments are transmitted to future generations. Birth order effects on the first generation are large, apply to 80% of the population, and can be identified with relatively mild assumptions. Using cousin comparisons in Dutch administrative data, we find that around 20 percent of the income disadvantages are transmitted. Additionally, we find sizeable decreases in children's education and increases in boys' criminal behavior. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, birth order, extended family, education, crime |
| JEL: | D19 I24 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17570 |
| By: | Isaak, Niklas (RWI); Jessen, Robin (RWI) |
| Abstract: | Women born later experience greater earnings growth volatility at given ages than older cohorts. This implies a welfare loss due to increased earnings risk. However, German registry data for the years 2001-2016 reveal a moderation in higher-order earnings risk: Men and women born later face higher skewness in earnings changes, indicating fewer large decreases than increases, and lower kurtosis at younger ages, implying fewer large earnings changes. These trends point at a welfare increase and persist for 5-year earnings changes, which are more reflective of persistent changes. During the Great Recession, males' skewness dropped sharply; younger women were unaffected. |
| Keywords: | wage risk, income dynamics, life cycle, business cycle |
| JEL: | D31 J31 E24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17568 |
| By: | Bernardus van Doornik; Dimas Fazio; Tarun Ramadorai; Janis Skrastins |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of access to housing on fertility rates using random variation from housing credit lotteries in Brazil. We find that obtaining housing increases the average probability of having a child by 3.8% and the number of children by 3.2%. For 20-25-year-olds, the corresponding effects are 32% and 33%, with no increase in fertility for people above age 40. The lifetime fertility increase for a 20-year old is twice as large from obtaining housing immediately relative to obtaining it at age 30. The increase in fertility is stronger for households in areas with lower quality housing, greater rental expenses relative to income, and those with lower household income and lower female income share. These results suggest that alleviating housing credit and physical space constraints can significantly increase fertility. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:612 |
| By: | Mussida, Chiara; Sciulli, Dario |
| Abstract: | We explore the female employment-fertility relationship for a wide period, 2004-2019 in Italy. We adopt a dynamic approach when modelling both employment and fertility choices and allow for possible feedback effects from employment to future fertility decision. We also consider different employment outcomes and subgroup analysis. Our findings suggest childbirth has reduced the probability of female employment. The childbirth effect, however, evolved over time, and the related negative impact has increased after the Great Recession and the application of austerity measures. Full-time and permanent jobs were greatly affected by childbirth than part-time and temporary employment. Childbirth increases the probability of being a high-pay worker, indicating a greater ease to combine career and family, possibly because of the better accessibility of childcare services. Childcare tends to increase work intensity, suggesting a compensative role of other familymembers in terms of household labor supply. Sub-groups analysis reveals negative childbirth-effect is stronger for younger females, in the North-Centre regions, among non-poor household and in presence of employed husbands. |
| Keywords: | female employment, childbirth, dynamic model, feedback effects |
| JEL: | E24 J13 C61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1526 |
| By: | Sallam, Hend; Christl, Michael |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the direct average net fiscal impact (ANFI) of migration in Germany, taking into account both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits such as health and education spending. Using a status quo approach with data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for 2018 and microsimulation techniques to impute both indirect taxes and in-kind benefits, our results show that migrants, especially first-generation migrants, have a more favorable net fiscal impact on average compared to natives. However, we demonstrate that this result is mainly driven by the favourable age structure of migrants. When controlling for demographic differences between these groups, we show that second-generation migrants contribute very similarly to natives to the German welfare state. Nevertheless, both natives and second-generation migrants, respectively, contribute more than first-generation migrants. These differences persist even when we do not account for indirect taxes and benefits-in-kind. |
| Keywords: | immigration, net fiscal impact, public finances, tax-benefit system |
| JEL: | F22 H24 H50 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1530 |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will affect temperatures, sea levels, and other aspects of the climate. For the United States, those physical changes will pose a wide range of risks to economic activity, real estate and financial markets, human health, biodiversity, immigration, and national security. Because both the physical effects of climate change and their economic consequences are highly uncertain, this report focuses, where possible, on the 5th and 95th percentiles of the distributions of potential outcomes. |
| JEL: | G18 G21 G22 G28 H81 O44 Q50 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:60845 |
| By: | Martín-Román, Ángel L.; Moral, Alfonso; Pinillos-Franco, Sara |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the gender gap in workplace sick leave duration, focusing on the underlying economic and biological factors that contribute to this disparity. Using a novel methodological approach, we combine the stochastic frontier technique with an Oaxaca-Blinder-type decomposition to separate sick leave into medically justified and "opportunistic" days. Our analysis, based on detailed administrative data of workplace accidents in Spain, reveals that men and women recover at different rates for the same injuries, with biological differences explaining the majority of the observed gender gap. Additionally, we identify that men tend to use more sick leave days for reasons unrelated to health recovery. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and employers, providing an empirical foundation for targeted policies that reduce gender-based discrimination in the workplace and ensure fairer resource allocation. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the gender gap in occupational health and offers implications for improving workplace equality. |
| Keywords: | Gender Gap, Sick Leave Duration, Workplace Accidents, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Occupational Health |
| JEL: | I12 I13 J16 J28 C21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1542 |