|
on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Esmée Zwiers (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In the Netherlands, an immediate baby boom followed the end of WWII and the baby bust of the 1930s. I propose a novel application of the bunching methodology to examine whether the war shifted the timing of fertility or changed women’s completed fertility. I disaggregate the number of births by age for cohorts of mothers, and estimate counterfactual distributions of births by exploiting that women experienced the war at different ages. I show that the rise in fertility after the liberation did not make up for the “missed†births that did not occur prior to the war, as fertility would have been 9.4% higher in absence of WWII. |
| Keywords: | Lifecycle fertility, bunching, World War II, The Netherlands |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J18 N34 N44 |
| Date: | 2024–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240027 |
| By: | Karger, Ezra (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Wray, Anthony (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | The average white male born in 1900 earned 2.6 times more labor income over their lifetime than the average Black male. This gap is nearly twice as large as the more commonly studied cross-sectional Black-white earnings gap because 48% of Black males born in 1900 died before the age of 30 as compared to just 26% of white males. We calibrate a model of optimal consumption in a world with mortality risk to data describing the life-cycle earnings and survival probabilities of Black and white males born between 1900 and 1970. We find that convergence in Black and white mortality rates led to a 50% reduction in Black-white welfare gaps between the 1900 and 1920 birth cohorts, even as cross-sectional Black-white income gaps for those cohorts remained relatively constant. However, the Black-white welfare gap stagnated for the 1920 to 1970 birth cohorts as gaps in Black-white life expectancy and income remained stable and large. |
| Keywords: | life-cycle earnings, life expectancy, Black-white welfare gap |
| JEL: | J11 J31 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17221 |
| By: | Inga Laß (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Irma Mooi-Reci (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Martin Bujard (University Heidelberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In many countries, temporary work is negatively associated with fertility. Yet, the mechanisms underlying this relationship remain poorly understood. This study investigates a range of mediating pathways (subjective and objective financial situation, short tenure, and employment uncertainty) through which temporary work influences first births in two contrasting contexts: Australia and Germany. Event history and path models are estimated using 19 years of data from both the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey (n=28, 493) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP) (n=31, 480). Results show that casual work among women and men in Australia, and fixedterm contracts among women in Germany, are associated with a lower likelihood of first birth than permanent employment. Lower wages explained a significant proportion of these differentials for both genders. The higher likelihood of being new in a job (in Germany) and higher perceived job insecurity (in Australia) were also relevant mediators, but only among women. These gendered outcomes suggest that women, in their role as primary carers, place more value on obtaining secure and stable employment prior to first birth. For men, in their role as primary earners, securing higher-paying jobs matters more for fertility than a stable job. |
| Keywords: | contingent employment, fertility, employment uncertainty, fixed-term contracts, casual work |
| JEL: | J13 J31 J41 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2024n05 |
| By: | Marc Fleurbaey (Paris School of Economics); Domenico Moramarco (University of Bari); Vito Peragine (University of Bari) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a unified framework to measure inequality and social welfare in the case in which both inequalities between groups and inequalities within groups matter, but priority is recognized to the former. This novel approach can be applied to a variety of contexts, including the analysis of inequalities of opportunity, ethnic discrimination and gender disparities. The empirical part of the paper analyzes two relevant cases: (i) the evolution of income inequality and ethnic discrimination in the United States during the period 1970-2014; (ii) the comparison of four European countries - Italy, Spain, France and Germany - in terms of inequality of opportunity. |
| Keywords: | inequality; social welfare; horizontal inequalities; inequality of opportunity; ethnic discrimination |
| JEL: | D30 D63 I30 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bai:series:series_wp_03-2024 |
| By: | Antman, Francisca M. (University of Colorado, Boulder); Duncan, Brian (University of Colorado Denver); Lovenheim, Michael F. (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the long-run impacts of banning affirmative action on men and women from under-represented minority (URM) racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Using data from the US Census and American Community Survey, we use a difference-in-differences framework to compare the college degree completion, graduate degree completion, earnings, and employment of URM individuals to non-URM individuals before and after affirmative action bans went into effect across several US states. We also employ event study analyses and alternative estimators to confirm the validity of our approach and discuss the generalizability of the findings. Results suggest that banning affirmative action results in a decline in URM women's college degree completion, earnings, and employment relative to non-Hispanic White women, driven largely by impacts on Hispanic women. Thus, affirmative action bans resulted in an increase in racial/ethnic disparities in both college degree completion and earnings among women. Effects on URM men are more ambiguous and indicate significant heterogeneity across states, with some estimates pointing to a possible positive impact on labor market outcomes of Black men. These results suggest that the relative magnitude of college quality versus mismatch effects vary for URM men and women and highlight the importance of disaggregating results by gender, race, and ethnicity. We conclude by discussing how our results compare with others in the literature and directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | affirmative action, higher education, racial disparities |
| JEL: | J15 J18 I23 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17169 |
| By: | Adriana Corredor-Waldron; Janet Currie; Molly Schnell |
| Abstract: | Black mothers with unscheduled deliveries are 25 percent more likely to deliver by C-section than non-Hispanic white mothers. The gap is highest for mothers with the lowest risk and is reduced by only four percentage points when controlling for observed medical risk factors, sociodemographic characteristics, hospital, and doctor or medical practice group. Remarkably, the gap disappears when the costs of ordering an unscheduled C-section are higher due to the unscheduled delivery occurring at the same time as a scheduled C-section. This finding is consistent with provider discretion—rather than differences in unobserved medical risk—accounting for persistent racial disparities in delivery method. The additional C-sections that take place for low-risk women when hospitals are unconstrained negatively impact maternal and infant health. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32891 |