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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Hanna Schwank |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters are growing in frequency globally. Understanding how vulnerable populations respond to these disasters is essential for effective policy response. This paper explores the short- and long-run consequences of the 1906 San Francisco Fire, one of the largest urban fires in American history. Using linked Census records, I follow residents of San Francisco and their children from 1900 to 1940. Historical records suggest that exogenous factors such as wind and the availability of water determined where the fire stopped. I implement a spatial regression discontinuity design across the boundary of the razed area to identify the effect of the fire on those who lost their home to it. I find that in the short run, the fire displaced affected residents, forced them into lower paying occupations and out of entrepreneurship. Experiencing the disaster disrupted children’s school attendance and led to an average loss of six months of education. While most effects attenuated over time, the negative effect on business ownership persists even in 1940, 34 years after the fire. Therefore, my findings reject the hope for a “reversal of fortune” for the victims, in contrast to what is found for more recent natural disasters such as hurricane Katrina. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disasters; Internal Migration; Economic History, Regional and Urban Economics |
| JEL: | N91 N31 Q54 O15 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_571&r= |
| By: | Timothy Riffe (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Francisco Villavicencio (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mauricio Gonzalez-Forero |
| Keywords: | USA |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-014&r= |
| By: | David Koll; Dominik Sachs; Fabian Stürmer-Heiber; Hélène Turon |
| Abstract: | We formalize and estimate the dynamic marginal efficiency cost of redistribution (MECR) in the spirit of Okun’s “leaky bucket” to compare the MECR of an income-contingent childcare subsidy program and of the income-contingent tax and transfer schedule. We set up a dynamic structural model of heterogeneous households choosing their childcare demand and maternal labor supply. Allowing for the availability of informal childcare and for consumption of leisure, we estimate this model within the German context. Our analysis identifies two competing forces. (i) Labor supply responses increase the MECR of the childcare subsidy relative to the tax and transfer system. (ii) Child development effects decrease the MECR of the childcare subsidy relative to the income tax. We show that, under most plausible assumptions on the long-term returns to childcare attendance for children growing up in households of different incomes, progressive childcare subsidies are the more efficient redistribution tool. |
| Keywords: | Female Labor Supply, Childcare, Family Policies, Fiscal Externalities, Dynamic Discrete Choice, Redistribution |
| JEL: | H23 H31 J13 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_570&r= |
| By: | Cho, Duksang; Han, Jungmin |
| Abstract: | In South Korea, more women are postponing or forgoing childbirth due to concerns about career interruption. Their conscious decision to refrain from motherhood is estimated to be responsible for about 40% of the decrease in the fertility rate. In the face of the world's lowest fertility rate, Korea needs to overhaul its policies to better support work-life balance, enabling parents to maintain their careers while raising children. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kdifoc:300081&r= |
| By: | Brooke Helppie McFall; Eric D. Parolin; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates gender gaps in long-term career expectations and outcomes of PhD candidates in economics. For this purpose, we match rich survey data on PhD candidates (from the 2008-2010 job market cohorts) to public data on job histories and publication records through 2022. We document four novel empirical facts: (1) there is a robust gender gap in career expectations, with females about 10 percentage points less likely to ex-ante expect to get tenure or publish regularly; (2) the gender gap in expectations is remarkably similar to the gap observed for academic outcomes; (3) expectations are similarly predictive of outcomes for males and females. In addition, the predictive power of expectations does not differ by the relationship status of the individual; and (4) gender gaps in expectations can explain about 19% and 13% of the ex-post gaps in tenure and publications, respectively. |
| JEL: | J16 J44 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32446&r= |