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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Pascaline Dupas; Seema Jayachandran; Adriana Lleras-Muney; Pauline Rossi |
| Abstract: | We conducted a randomized trial among 14, 545 households in rural Burkina Faso to test the oft-cited hypothesis that limited access to contraception is an important driver of high fertility rates in West Africa. We do not find support for this hypothesis. Women who were given free access to medical contraception for three years did not have lower birth rates; we can reject even modest effects. We cross-randomized additional interventions to address possible inefficiencies leading to low demand for free contraception, specifically misperceptions about the child mortality rate, limited exposure to opposing views about family size and contraception, and social pressure. Free contraception did not influence fertility even in combination with these other interventions. |
| JEL: | J13 J18 O12 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32427&r= |
| By: | Henrik-Alexander Schubert (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Christian Dudel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Male childlessness is increasing in many high-income countries. In Finland in 2022, the share of all men who were childless at age 45 had reached 29%. What is causing these high levels of childlessness is unclear. In this paper, we use rich Finnish population register data to examine whether gender imbalances in regional partner markets are a potential driver of male childlessness. Partner markets are unbalanced in a given region if there is a surplus of men relative to women, or vice versa. The data generally shows increasingly imbalanced partner market situation for men over time, but with considerable regional heterogeneity. Regression results indicate an increased probability of childlessness at age 45 after extended exposure to unbalanced partner markets over the life course. This association is particularly strong for low-income men. These findings are robust across indicators and specifications. Overall, the regional context seems to play a crucial role in the risk of childlessness. |
| Keywords: | Finland, fertility, fertility decline |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-010&r= |
| By: | Braun, Sebastian Till (University of Bayreuth); Stuhler, Jan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Despite millions of war widows worldwide, little is known about the economic consequences of being widowed by war. We use life history data from West Germany to show that war widowhood increased women's employment immediately after World War II but led to lower employment rates later in life. War widows, therefore, carried a double burden of employment and childcare while their children were young but left the workforce when their children reached adulthood. We discuss the mechanisms contributing to this counterintuitive life-cycle pattern and examine potential spillovers to the next generation. |
| Keywords: | war widows, labor market careers, female labor force participation, World War II |
| JEL: | J16 J20 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16973&r= |
| By: | Steven Brakman; Tristan Kohl; Charles van Marrewijk |
| Abstract: | Population forecasts indicate that the world is facing massive demographic changes during the 21st century. This does not only involve the development of the total global population, but (more importantly) will also affect the population and age distribution across countries in a fundamental way. In this paper we focus on the income consequences of these changes for the global income distribution. Key in this respect are changes in the so-called demographic dividend associated with the share of the working-age population in the total population. We link the predicted long-run changes of the demographic dividend to income projections. Our findings are as follows. First, show that historically the impact of demography on economic growth indicates that a one per cent higher demographic dividend results in about 0.22 percentage points higher growth rate. Second, we use UN population projections on population size and the associated age-distribution to predict income changes for the remainder of this century. Third, we illustrate how the center of income gravity shifts from advanced economies, like Europe and North America, towards developing and emerging economies, like South Asia and Africa. This potentially has consequences for the current global economic powers, that will see their influence on world affairs decline. |
| Keywords: | demography, income |
| JEL: | F43 J11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11108&r= |