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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Kathryn Christine Beck; Julia Hellstrand (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Period fertility has declined rapidly in Norway in the 2010s, reaching record lows. While there is a clear education-fertility dynamic, significant educational shifts have occurred and it’s unclear how much this contributed to recent fertility declines. To disentangle this, we utilize high-quality Norwegian register data and model yearly transitions between educational enrolment, attainment and childbearing for men and women born in 1964-2002. Using a counterfactual approach, we explore the contribution of educational expansion versus lower fertility by education to the decline in period and cohort fertility. Forecasting is used to complete fertility for cohorts aged 30+. We found that educational expansion contributed partially to the observed cohort fertility decline (2.11-2.01) for 1964-1974 female cohorts but stagnated for younger cohorts and the predicted decline thereafter (1.76 by the 1988 cohort), and the 2010s period fertility decline, is fully driven by decreased fertility across educational levels. For men, educational expansion was slower and didn’t contribute to the fertility decline. For both genders, the contribution of changed fertility behavior was strongest among the lower educated, particularly for predicted ultimate childlessness. Our results suggest that increased education isn’t the main fertility barrier in contemporary Norway. Instead, socioeconomic resources increasingly promote childbearing for both genders. Keywords: Educational attainment, educational enrollment, fertility decline, Norway, multi-state model, fertility forecasting |
| Keywords: | Norway |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-009&r= |
| By: | Zwiers, Esmée (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | In the Netherlands, an immediate baby boom followed the end of WWII and the baby bust of the 1930s. I propose a novel application of the bunching methodology to examine whether the war shifted the timing of fertility or changed women's completed fertility. I disaggregate the number of births by age for cohorts of mothers, and estimate counterfactual distributions of births by exploiting that women experienced the war at different ages. I show that the rise in fertility after the liberation did not make up for the "missed" births that did not occur prior to the war, as fertility would have been 9.4% higher in absence of WWII. |
| Keywords: | lifecycle fertility, bunching, World War II, The Netherlands |
| JEL: | J11 J13 J18 N34 N44 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16927&r= |
| By: | Courtin, Emilie; Rieckmann, Andreas; Bengtsson, Jessica; Nafilyan, Vahe; Melchior, Maria; Berkman, Lisa; Hulvej Rod, Naja |
| Abstract: | Background: Parental leave policies have been hypothesized to benefit mothers’ mental health. We assessed the impact of a 6-week extension of parental leave in Denmark on maternal mental health. Methods: We linked individual-level data from Danish national registries on maternal sociodemographic characteristics and psychiatric diagnoses. A regression discontinuity design was applied to study the increase in parental leave duration after 26 March 1984. We included women who had given birth between 1 January 1981 and 31 December 1987. Our outcome was a first psychiatric diagnosis following the child’s birth, ascertained as the first day of inpatient hospital admission for any psychiatric disorder. We presented cumulative incidences for the 30-year follow-up period and reported absolute risk differences between women eligible for the reform vs not, in 5-year intervals. Results: In all, 291 152 women were followed up until 2017, death, emigration or date of first psychiatric diagnosis. The median follow-up time was 29.99 years, corresponding to 10 277 547 person-years at risk. The cumulative incidence of psychiatric diagnoses at 30 years of follow-up was 59.5 (95% CI: 57.4 to 61.6) per 1000 women in the ineligible group and 57.5 (95% CI: 55.6 to 59.4) in the eligible group. Eligible women took on average 32.85 additional days of parental leave (95% CI: 29.20 to 36.49) and had a lower probability of having a psychiatric diagnosis within 5 years [risk difference (RD): 2.4 fewer diagnoses per 1000 women, 95% CI: 1.5 to 3.2] and up to 20 years after the birth (RD: 2.3, 95% CI: 0.4 to 4.2). In subgroup analyses, the risk reduction was concentrated among low-educated, low-income and single women. Conclusions: Longer parental leave may confer mental health benefits to women, in particular to those from disadvantaged backgrounds. |
| Keywords: | social determinants of health; women’s health; parental leave; mental disorders; quasi-experiment; MR/T032499/1 |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2023–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122771&r= |
| By: | Nicolas Abad (LERN, University of Rouen Normandy); Johanna Etner (EconomiX, Univ Paris Nanterre,); Natacha Raffin (University Paris-Saclay, ENS Paris-Saclay, Centre for Economics at Paris-Saclay, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette); Thomas Seegmuller (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | We use an overlapping generations model with physical and human capital, and two reproductive periods to explore how fertility decisions may differ in response to economic incentives in early and late adulthood. In particular, we analyze the interplay between fertility choices—related to career opportunities—and wages, and investigate the role played by work experience and investment in both types of capital. We show that young adults postpone parenthood above a certain wage threshold and that late fertility increases with work experience. The long run trend is either to converge to a low productivity equilibrium, involving high early fertility, investment in physical capital and relatively low income, or to a high productivity equilibrium, where households postpone parenthood to invest in their human capital and work experience, with higher late fertility and higher levels of income. A convergence to the latter state would explain the postponement of parenthood and the mitigation or slight reversal of fertility decrease in some European countries in recent decades. |
| Keywords: | fertility, postponement, work experience, overlapping generations |
| JEL: | E21 J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2416&r= |