nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2024‒03‒18
six papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin

  1. On the Similarity of Fertility across European National Borders By Ermisch, John
  2. Selection into maternity leave length and long-run maternal health in Germany By L. Bister; Peter Eibich; R. Rutigliano; M. Kühn; K. van Hedel
  3. Inequalities in multimorbidity between older migrants and natives across Europe By Su Y. Jang; Silvia Loi; Frank J. van Lenthe; Anna Oksuzyan; Mikko Myrskylä
  4. Socioeconomic Inequality in Life Expectancy: Perception and Policy Demand By Jessen, Lasse J.; Koehne, Sebastian; Nüß, Patrick; Ruhose, Jens
  5. Rethinking the geography of distress in nineteenth-century Ireland: Excess mortality and the Land War By McLaughlin, Eoin; Whelehan, Niall
  6. Climate Change, Population Growth, and Population Pressure By J. Vernon Henderson; Bo Yeon Jang; Adam Storeygard; David N. Weil

  1. By: Ermisch, John
    Abstract: The paper introduces to comparative cross-national fertility research a method to formalise what is meant by the TFR’s of countries ‘moving together’. It is based on the estimation of long run fertility relationships which are stationary series (so called ‘cointegrating equations’). Six sets of countries with similar TFR movements within each were identified: Northwest Europe (England and Wales, France, Netherlands and Belgium); (2) Southern Europe (Italy, Spain and Portugal); (3) the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland); (4) Germany and Austria; (5) the Eastern Europe group of Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Estonia); and (6) the group of Russia, Belarus and Lithuania. There are unique features of TFR movements in each region. But Northwest Europe, the Nordic countries and Southern Europe all share a decline in their TFR during the past decade, albeit from different levels of fertility. This strongly suggests that factors influencing fertility during this period do not stem from particular features in each country but broader influences, whether social or economic.
    Date: 2023–09–28
  2. By: L. Bister; Peter Eibich (MPIDR - Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Legos - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); R. Rutigliano; M. Kühn; K. van Hedel
    Abstract: Existing literature shows the importance of maternity leave as a strategy for women to balance work and family responsibilities. However, only a few studies focused on the long-run impact of maternity leave length on maternal health. Therefore, how exactly they are related remains unclear. We examine women's selection into different lengths of maternity leave as a potential explanation for the inconclusive findings in the literature on the association between maternity leave and maternal health. This study aims to unravel the association between maternity leave length and mothers' long-term health in Germany. Drawing on detailed data from the German Statutory Pension Fund (DRV), we estimated the association between maternity leave length and sick leave from 3 years following their child's birth for 4, 243 women living in Germany in 2015 by applying discrete-time logistic regression. Our results show a negative relationship between maternity-leave length and long-term maternal health, likely driven by negative health selection. Long maternity leaves of more than 24 months were associated with worse maternal health in the long run, while a positive association emerged for vulnerable women with pre-existing health problems.
    Keywords: maternital health, maternity leave, child health, Germany
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Su Y. Jang (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Silvia Loi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Frank J. van Lenthe; Anna Oksuzyan (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2024
  4. By: Jessen, Lasse J. (Kiel University); Koehne, Sebastian (Kiel University); Nüß, Patrick (Kiel University); Ruhose, Jens (University of Kiel)
    Abstract: Using survey experiments in the United States and Germany with 12, 000 participants, we examine perceptions of life expectancy inequality between rich and poor people. The life expectancy of the poor is underestimated more than that of the rich, leading to exaggerated perceptions of inequality in both countries. Receiving accurate information narrows concerns about this inequality. However, the impact of information on policy demand is limited because support for policies addressing life expectancy for the poor is consistently high, regardless of varying perceptions of inequality. We conclude that there is strong and unconditional public support for health equity policies.
    Keywords: socioeconomic inequality in life expectancy, health care, information treatment, survey experiment
    JEL: C90 D71 D83 I14 I18
    Date: 2024–02
  5. By: McLaughlin, Eoin; Whelehan, Niall
    Abstract: Analysis of excess mortality holds the potential to revise understandings of key moments in modern Irish history. Yet aside from studies of the Great Famine, it has been neglected by historians of Ireland. Examining rates of excess mortality across post-Famine Ireland reveals that the Land War crisis of 1877-1882, a transformational period, was one of the worst public health crises of modern Irish history. In fact, during the years 1878-1880 excess mortality levels were much higher than during any other period from when registration records began in 1864 up to the present day. Western regions, particularly Co. Mayo, have long been considered the worst affected by this crisis, but from the perspective of excess mortality, we establish that this was an islandwide crisis and one that was more severe that previously understood. The study of excess mortality in Irish history has been neglected partly because of some concerns expressed by scholars about the reliability of the source material in the annual statistical reports of the Registrar General. Yet, we document the reliability of the registers by cross-referencing with census returns, demonstrating their accuracy in the 1870s and 1880s, and their importance as sources to provide vital insights and context in modern Irish history.
    Keywords: Land War, Excess Mortality, Ireland
    JEL: N13 N33 I18
    Date: 2024
  6. By: J. Vernon Henderson; Bo Yeon Jang; Adam Storeygard; David N. Weil
    Abstract: We develop a novel method for assessing the effect of constraints imposed by spatially-fixed natural resources on aggregate economic output. We apply it to estimate and compare the projected effects of climate change and population growth over the course of the 21st century, by country and globally. We find that standard population growth projections imply larger reductions in income than even the most extreme widely-adopted climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Climate and population impacts are correlated across countries: climate change and population growth will have their most damaging effects in similar places. Relative to previous work on macro climate impacts, our approach has the advantages of being disciplined by a simple macro growth model that allows for adaptation and of assessing impacts via a large set of climate moments, not just annual average temperature and precipitation. Further, our estimated effects of climate are by construction independent of country-level factors such as institutions.
    JEL: J11 O44 Q54
    Date: 2024–02

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