nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒12‒18
eight papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin

  1. Reducing the Child Penalty by Incentivizing Part-Time Work? Evidence from a Paid Parental Leave Reform in Germany By Sandner, Malte; Bärtsch, Laurenz
  2. School Closures, Mortality, and Human Capital: Evidence from the Universe of Closures during the 1918 Pandemic in Sweden By Dahl, Christian M.; Hansen, Casper W.; Jensen, Peter S.; Karlsson, Martin; Kühnle, Daniel
  3. Leaving for life: using online crowd-sourced genealogies to estimate the migrant mortality advantage for the United Kingdom and Ireland during the 18 th and 19 th centuries By Elena Pojman; Duke Elijah Mwedzi; Orlando Olaya Bucaro; Stephanie Zhang; Michael Chong; Monica Alexander; Diego Alburez-Gutierrez
  4. The Cultural Origins of the Demographic Transition in France By Guillaume Blanc
  5. Life and Death at the Margins of Society: The Mortality of the U.S. Homeless Population By Bruce D. Meyer; Angela Wyse; Ilina Logani
  6. State-level economic uncertainty and cardiovascular disease deaths: evidence from the United States By Kyriopoulos, Ilias-Ioannis; Vandoros, Sotiris; Kawachi, Ichiro
  7. Demography, Growth, and Robots in Advanced and Emerging Economies By Gravina, Antonio Francesco; Lanzafame, Matteo
  8. Optimal Retirement Choice under Age-dependent Force of Mortality By Giorgio Ferrari; Shihao Zhu

  1. By: Sandner, Malte; Bärtsch, Laurenz
    JEL: J13 J16 J18 J22 J48
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Dahl, Christian M. (University of Southern Denmark); Hansen, Casper W. (University of Copenhagen); Jensen, Peter S. (Linnaeus University); Karlsson, Martin (University of Duisburg-Essen); Kühnle, Daniel (University of Duisburg-Essen)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of primary-school closures during the 1918 Pandemic in Sweden on mortality and long-term outcomes of school children. Using the universe of death certificates from 1914-1920 and newly-collected data on school closures across 2, 100 districts, we conduct high-frequency event studies at both weekly and daily intervals to show that schools closed in response to local surges in influenza deaths. Faster implementation of school closures significantly reduced peak mortality rates among primary-aged individuals. However, our long-run analysis of approximately 100, 000 affected children per grade shows precisely estimated, minor and mostly insignificant effects on longevity, employment, and income.
    Keywords: short- and long-run effects, human capital, mortality, 1918 Pandemic, school closures
    JEL: J10 N34 I10
    Date: 2023–11
  3. By: Elena Pojman (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Duke Elijah Mwedzi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Orlando Olaya Bucaro (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Stephanie Zhang (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Michael Chong; Monica Alexander (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Demographic studies consistently find a mortality advantage among migrants, but a lack of longitudinal data tracking individuals across national borders has limited the study of historical international migration. To address this gap, we use the crowd-sourced online genealogical database Familinx to estimate the migrant mortality advantage for migrants from the United Kingdom and Ireland between 1750 and 1910. We compare age at death for non-migrants and migrants to Canada, the United States, South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia using mixed-effects regression models that account for unobserved factors shared between siblings. Results suggest an overall expected migrant advantage of 5.9 years, 95% CI [5.7, 6.2] even after accounting for between-family variation, with migrants estimated to live an additional 2.6 [1.1, 4.0] to 8.7 [6.3, 11.2] years depending on the country of destination. This study contributes to the understanding of the migrant mortality advantage in a historical context and shows the potential for online genealogies to contribute to demographic research. Keywords: crowd-sourced genealogies, migrant mortality advantage, United Kingdom, Ireland, sibling effects
    Keywords: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom, USA, genealogy, migration, mortality, siblings
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Guillaume Blanc
    Abstract: This research shows that secularization accounts for the remarkably early fertility decline in France. The demographic transition, a turning point in history and an essential condition for development, first took hold in France, before the French Revolution and more than a century earlier than in any other country. Why it happened so early is one of the ‘big questions of history’ because it challenges traditional explanations and because of data limitations. Using a novel dataset crowdsourced from publicly available genealogies, I comprehensively document, for the first time, the decline in fertility and its timing with a representative sample of the population. Then, drawing on a wide range of sources and data, I document an important process of secularization in the eighteenth century and find a strong and robust association with the timing of the transition across regions and individuals. Finally, I discuss the persistent impact of the transition on economic growth and explore the drivers of secularization.
    Keywords: fertility; development; secularization
    JEL: N33 O10 Z12
    Date: 2023–11
  5. By: Bruce D. Meyer; Angela Wyse; Ilina Logani
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between extreme socioeconomic disadvantage and poor health by providing the first detailed and accurate picture of mortality patterns among people experiencing homelessness in the U.S. Our analyses center on 140, 000 people who were sheltered or unsheltered homeless during the 2010 Census, by far the largest sample ever used to study this population and the only sample designed to be nationally representative. These individuals, along with housed comparison groups, are linked to Social Security Administration data on all-cause mortality from 2010-2022 to estimate the magnitude of health disparities associated with homelessness. We find that non-elderly people experiencing homelessness have 3.5 times the mortality risk of those who are housed, accounting for differences in demographic characteristics and geography, and that a 40-year-old homeless person faces a similar mortality risk to a housed person nearly twenty years older. Our results reveal notable patterns in relative mortality risk by age, race, gender, and Hispanic ethnicity and suggest that within the homeless population, employment, higher incomes, and more extensive observed family connections are associated with lower mortality. The mortality hazard of homeless individuals rose by 33 percent during the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase that, while similar in proportional terms to the increase for the housed population, affected a much larger share of the homeless population due to their substantially elevated baseline mortality rate. These findings elucidate the persistent hardships associated with homelessness and show that the well-documented gradient between health and poverty persists into the extreme lower tail of socioeconomic disadvantage.
    JEL: I0 J0 R0
    Date: 2023–11
  6. By: Kyriopoulos, Ilias-Ioannis; Vandoros, Sotiris; Kawachi, Ichiro
    Keywords: economic uncertainty; economic conditions; cardiovascular disease; United States; Springer deal
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–11–15
  7. By: Gravina, Antonio Francesco (University of Palermo); Lanzafame, Matteo (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel of 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significant negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels—including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population aging has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects of unfavorable demographic change—in particular, population aging—on labor productivity growth.
    Keywords: demographic change; labor productivity; robots
    JEL: C33 J11 O40
    Date: 2023–11–09
  8. By: Giorgio Ferrari; Shihao Zhu
    Abstract: This paper examines the retirement decision, optimal investment, and consumption strategies under an age-dependent force of mortality. We formulate the optimization problem as a combined stochastic control and optimal stopping problem with a random time horizon, featuring three state variables: wealth, labor income, and force of mortality. To address this problem, we transform it into its dual form, which is a finite time horizon, three-dimensional degenerate optimal stopping problem with interconnected dynamics. We establish the existence of an optimal retirement boundary that splits the state space into continuation and stopping regions. Regularity of the optimal stopping value function is derived and the boundary is proved to be Lipschitz continuous, and it is characterized as the unique solution to a nonlinear integral equation, which we compute numerically. In the original coordinates, the agent thus retires whenever her wealth exceeds an age-, labor income- and mortality-dependent transformed version of the optimal stopping boundary. We also provide numerical illustrations of the optimal strategies, including the sensitivities of the optimal retirement boundary concerning the relevant model's parameters.
    Date: 2023–11

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