nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒10‒16
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin

  1. Women and the Econometrics of Family Trees By José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez; Joseph P. Ferrie; Christopher Vickers
  2. Like Father, Like Child: Intergenerational Mobility in the French Grandes Écoles throughout the 20 th Century By Stéphane Benveniste
  3. Childhood Health Shocks and the Intergenerational Transmission of Inequality By Eriksen, Tine Louise Mundbjerg; Gaulke, Amanda; Svensson, Jannet; Skipper, Niels; Thingholm, Peter Rønø
  4. Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility By Rannveig Hart; Janna Bergsvik; Agnes Fauske; Wookun Kim
  5. Taxation and Migration by the Super-Rich By Advani, Arun; Burgherr, David; Summers, Andy

  1. By: José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez; Joseph P. Ferrie; Christopher Vickers
    Abstract: We present an econometric structure for the analysis of intergenerational mobility that integrates non-linearities, the role of maternal-side effects and the impact of grandparents. We show how previously estimated models are special cases of this general framework and what specific assumptions each embeds. Our analysis of linked U. S. data 1900-40 reveals the extent to which inadequate consideration of assortative mating and the impact of mothers produces misleading conclusions.
    JEL: C36 C50 J08 J12 J13 J62 N31 N32
    Date: 2023–08
  2. By: Stéphane Benveniste (Institut national d’études démographiques (INED), F-75020 Paris, France; Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: While the educational expansion of the 20 th century promoted social mobility overall, the top of the social hierarchy may have remained privileged. This paper examines the evolution of intergenerational mobility in admissions to the French elite colleges-the Grandes Écoles (GE)-over more than a century. Admission to these institutions is subject to partially anonymous competitive examinations, and their degrees are the ticket to top positions in the public and private sectors. In the growing literature measuring intergenerational mobility through surnames, I design a novel method and apply it to a self-collected dataset on all 285, 286 graduates from ten of the most prestigious Grandes Écoles between 1886 and 2015. Principally, I find that children of male GE graduates were highly over-represented in the top colleges throughout the 20 th century. Importantly, unlike previous studies exploiting fathers' socio-professional categories, I find a stable low level of intergenerational mobility for all cohorts born since 1916: chances of GE admission for children of GE graduates were approximately 80 times higher than for the rest of the population.
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, higher education, elites, Grandes Ecoles, historical economics
    JEL: J62 I23 N34
    Date: 2023–09
  3. By: Eriksen, Tine Louise Mundbjerg (VIVE - The Danish Centre for Social Science Research); Gaulke, Amanda (Kansas State University); Svensson, Jannet (Copenhagen University Hospital); Skipper, Niels (Aarhus University); Thingholm, Peter Rønø (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: We examine the role of health shocks in childhood and parental background in transmitting intergenerational inequality. We use Danish administrative registry data (a setting with universal access to health care) and the quasi-random onset of Type 1 Diabetes in childhood to document substantial penalties in adult employment and labor market income at age 30. We document wide disparities in treatment effects and show that high-socioeconomic parents mitigate the adverse impacts of the health shock. This gradient is partly driven by differential impacts on health and human capital across the socioeconomic distribution. Maternal educational attainment matters for adoption of new and more advanced treatment regimens.
    Keywords: intergenerational transmission of inequality, childhood health shocks, labor market outcomes
    JEL: I12 I14 I24
    Date: 2023–09
  4. By: Rannveig Hart (Norwegian Institute of Public Health); Janna Bergsvik (Statistics Norway); Agnes Fauske (University of Oslo); Wookun Kim (Southern Methodist University)
    Abstract: This chapter reviews the literature on the causal effects of policies on fertility. It focuses on evidence from experiments and quasi-experiments in low fertility contexts, including studies from Europe, Northern America, Oceania, and Asia. Making no a priori restrictions on policy type, the review encompasses evaluations of parental leave, childcare, health insurance, and financial incentives such as child transfers. Childcare expansions increase completed fertility. Financial incentives had positive effects on fertility across contexts, both in the short and long run. Expansions of parental leave rights in Central Europe and the introduction of parental leave in the U.S. also had positive effects. The distributional effects of these policies are very different, with parental leave compensation benefiting high-earning couples, while expansions of childcare programs had potential to reduce social inequalities.
    Keywords: pro-natalist policies, cash transfer, parental leave, childcare, healthcare, fertility.
    JEL: H40 H75 J13 J16 J18
    Date: 2023–09
  5. By: Advani, Arun (University of Warwick); Burgherr, David (LSE); Summers, Andy (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Using administrative data on the globally connected super-rich in the UK, we study the effect of a large tax reform on migration behaviour. Prior to 2017, offshore investment returns for 'non-doms' – individuals tax-resident in the UK but with connections to other countries – were untaxed. People making use of that tax status are strongly concentrated at the top of the income distribution: 86% are in the UK top 1% and 29% in the top 0.1% once overseas investment income is taken into account. A reform in 2017 brought long-stayers, who had been in the UK for at least 15 of the last 20 years, into the standard tax system, reducing their effective net-of-average-tax rate by 18%. We find that emigration responses were modest: our central estimate is that the emigration rate increases by 0.26 percentage points for a 1% decline in the net-of-tax rate, and we can rule out increases larger than 0.4 percentage points. Dispelling fears that the targeted taxpayers were able to circumvent the tax hike, we find large average increases in income reported and tax paid in the UK of more than 150%.
    Keywords: taxation, migration, capital income, inequality, mobility
    JEL: F22 H31 J61
    Date: 2023–09

This nep-dem issue is ©2023 by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.