nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒10‒09
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin

  1. Population Aging and Economic Growth: From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Drag? By Kotschy, Rainer; Bloom, David E.
  2. Intersectionality and opportunity-weighted cumulative (dis)advantage By Jo M. Hale; Daniel C. Schneider; Neil K. Mehta; Mikko Myrskylä
  3. Fertility, employment and family policy: A cross-country panel analysis By Jonas Fluchtmann; Violetta van Veen; Willem Adema
  4. The parenthood penalty in mental health: Evidence from Austria and Denmark By Alexander Ahammer; Ulrich Glogowsky; Martin Halla; Timo Hener
  5. Floating Population: Migration With(Out) Family and the Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity By Clément Imbert; Joan Monras; Marlon Seror; Yanos Zylberberg

  1. By: Kotschy, Rainer (Harvard School of Public Health); Bloom, David E. (Harvard School of Public Health)
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which changes in working-age shares associated with population aging might slow economic growth in upcoming years. We first analyze the economic effects of changing working-age shares in a standard empirical growth model using country panel data from 1950–2015. We then juxtapose the estimates with predicted shifts in population age structure to project economic growth in 2020–2050. Our results indicate that population aging will slow economic growth throughout much of the world. Expansions of labor supply due to improvements in functional capacity among older people can cushion much of this demographic drag.
    Keywords: population health, life expectancy, prospective aging, labor supply, economic development
    JEL: J11 O11 O47
    Date: 2023–08
  2. By: Jo M. Hale (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Daniel C. Schneider (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Neil K. Mehta; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Grounded in theories of intersectionality and cumulative (dis)advantage, we develop complementary formalizations of (dis)advantage: one that captures the traditional practice of studying Cumulative (Dis)Advantage (CDA) that reflects inequalities in outcomes and Opportunity-Weighted CDA that additionally accounts for inequalities in opportunities. We study the properties of these (dis)advantages and show that traditional cumulative disadvantage and advantage are mutually exclusive; this is not true of opportunity-weighted CDA. Using these formalizations, we analyze the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2018) to assess how total life expectancy at age 50 is associated with the accumulation of racial/ethnic, nativity, gender, early-life, and educational (dis)advantages. We find that the benefits and penalties of one (dis)advantage depend on positionality on the other axes of inequality. Whites ubiquitously experience Cumulative Advantage: they benefit more from having higher education than Blacks and Latinx. However, when accounting for racial/ethnic inequities in educational attainment, results predominantly show Opportunity-Weighted Cumulative Disadvantage for Blacks and Latinx. Finally, we present a specification curve analysis that includes early-life adversity. Our contributions include the formalization (a mathematical grounding) of two CDA approaches – traditional and one that incorporates inequities in opportunities – and empirical results that comprehensively document the intersecting axes of stratification that perpetuate health inequities.
    Keywords: USA, life expectancy, social demography, social stratification
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Jonas Fluchtmann; Violetta van Veen; Willem Adema
    Abstract: This paper analyses the association of labour market outcomes and family policies with fertility trends between 2002 and 2019 in 26 OECD countries. While the average age of mothers at birth of their children continued to increase over the entire period, these years have been marked by an initial catching-up of total fertility rates after marked declines in previous decades. Furthermore, after peaking in 2008, total fertility rates declined substantially, fueling concerns about demographic, economic and fiscal implications. Using panel data models and building on prior work, this paper links these changes in fertility outcomes to changes in the labour market position of men and women as well as with changes in family policies, such as parental leaves and early childhood education and care. This paper provides insights into the complex dynamics between family policies, employment and fertility, shedding light on the factors influencing overall population dynamics in OECD countries.
    Keywords: Birth rates, Employment, Family Policy, Fertility
    JEL: J13 J18 J21 C33
    Date: 2023–09–21
  4. By: Alexander Ahammer; Ulrich Glogowsky; Martin Halla; Timo Hener
    Abstract: Using Austrian and Danish administrative data, we examine the impacts of parenthood on mental health. Parenthood imposes a greater mental health burden on mothers than on fathers. It creates a long-run gender gap in antidepressant prescriptions of about 93.2% (Austria) and 64.8% (Denmark). These parenthood penalties in mental health are unlikely to reflect differential help-seeking behavior across the sexes or postpartum depression. Instead, they are related to mothers’ higher investments in childcare: Mothers who take extended maternity leave in quasi-experimental settings are more likely to face mental health problems.
    Keywords: Gender equality, fertility, parenthood, motherhood, mental health, parental leave
    JEL: D63 J13 I10 J16 J22
    Date: 2023–09
  5. By: Clément Imbert; Joan Monras; Marlon Seror; Yanos Zylberberg
    Abstract: This paper argues that migrants’ decision to bring their dependent family members shapes their consumption behavior, their choice of destination, and their sensitivity to migration barriers. We document that in China: (i) rural migrants disproportionately move to expensive cities; (ii) in these cities they live without their family and in poorer housing conditions; and (iii) they remit more, especially when living without their family. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium spatial model in which migrant households choose whether, how (with or without their family), and where to migrate. We estimate the model using plausibly exogenous variation in wages, housing prices, and exposure to family migration costs. We use the model to estimate migration costs and relate them to migration policy. We find that hukou policies protect workers in large, expensive, and high income cities at the expense of rural households, who use remittances to overcome some of these costs.
    Keywords: migration; remittances; economic geography; spatial equilibrium
    JEL: R12 J61 O15
    Date: 2023–08–30

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